Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?
Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?
Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile
No, direct rule ended some time ago.
The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government.
Nope, the elected president of the Catalan government - an avowed separatist - operates out of the Generalitat in Barcelona.
Nope, the deposed Catalan President, Carlos Puigdemont, is still in exile in Belgium
Behold the master of moving goalposts. Your claim was direct rule was in place which it provably is not given a separatist president there we are told. Now you shift it onto how the former one is not there as if that is the same as the direct rule you claimed. Even if relevant it is not what you claimed.
Shameless. Just admit you didn't Google it before you claimed there was still direct rule.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
So the Tories got a crowd together to welcome Boris in Brecon High Street, then he decided not to appear in public, presumably after being booed in Cardiff.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
I think there is more Labour vote to fragment. They have serious established rivals who have clear positions on Brexit and policy positions across the board which will attract disillusioned labour voters.
Boris seems to have set about with purpose leaving the EU. He has set out his position mainly removal of Backstop and put the ball in EU 27 court. He has backed this up with the fact that backstop will not pass Parliament despite 3 attempts. The EU are looking silly now because they are insisting on something that cannot be delivered - even if they did agree it with May, In the meantime preparations are going ahead for no deal. Whilst ultimately I do not agree with no deal and I thought deal with time limit to backstop and alternative arrangements in political agreement will do, I can’t disagree with the progress and determination, and observe this is just as likely to achieve a deal whilst preparing for the worst. This all puts momentum back into Brexit and out of Brexit Party - their strength a few months ago in an election that didn’t matter is now irrelevant. I’d criticise their other policies if they had any.
We are going to have a No Deal Brexit if Johnson is PM on 31st October. That much is clear. He has to deliver it or he will be politically destroyed. I think that if there is an election before that time, there is a strong possibility a lot of voters will see it as their opportunity to stop No Deal - and for many that will mean voting Labour. If Johnson grabs all the BXP vote that will not make a difference, he will still win. Bit if a sizeable chunk of it remains unwooable, or drifts over to UKIP, then Labour does not actually need that much of a bounce to, at a minimum, deny Johnson a majority. The gamechanger for him would be to start taking votes from Labour directly. Right now there is little sign of that happening.
So the Tories got a crowd together to welcome Boris in Brecon High Street, then he decided not to appear in public, presumably after being booed in Cardiff.
Don't suppose there's any chance that this idiot has considered the possibility that the membership of the EU market, and the ability to source materials and expertise from that market, might have knock on benefits for those seeking to export 'outside the EU'?
Raab's big claim from when he was Brexit secretary is he was easily fooled and didn't know what was going on with the WA until it was announced. I know he phrases that differently and puts the blame on May which may be fair enough, but the end result is still he had no clue and didn't even know he had no clue, and we should somehow back him for that .
Raab is a first class tool, but the fact that the last Prime Minister had her Brexit secretaries negotiating in public whilst Olly Robins negotiated a seperate deal behind the scenes is a shame and deception that should sit firmly on her shoulders. She did not need to create a Brexit Secretary post, and if her intention was to do the negotiations directly she should have open about it.
The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.
David, would not leave many standing unfortunately, they need someone to turn off the lights.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Who's 'he' in this context?
Varadkar, he took a gamble on some populist brit bashing. If he'd cashed in in October last year he's have been a hero and could have called an election and won it. He decided to plough on and now he's headed in to a storm with an election still to come.
Mr. Nakht, much of that is accurate, but I disagree on one, quite significant, point.
If Boris doesn't want the backstop he needs to propose an alternative. That isn't the EU's job, because they're happy with the backstop.
A longer transition period or a lengthy backstop with a time limit would be potential options. Just saying "not this" is not a serious position. What would the post-transition relationship be with the EU without the backstop?
I entirely understand dislike of the backstop but some sort of alternative does need to be suggested.
Mr. Observer, I strongly suspect the idiot doesn't want no deal but will end up painting himself into a corner. The EU doesn't want it either, but macho bullshit and a desire not to lose face will drastically reduce the chances of any sensible negotiation/compromise (and time is tight anyway).
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
The YouGov poll seized on so avidly by the Boris Brigade isn't much different to the poll at the weekend with only small moves within MoE.
Again, supporters of the Prime Minister will quote polls like this ad infinitum and ad nauseam but OTOH we have Com Res and Opinium which show very different numbers and much smaller Conservative leads. YouGov reflects the kind of political honeymoon Boris's supporters are claiming he is having but other polls show a different response.
Which is correct? Who knows but unfortunately the diversity provides ample ammunition for the protagonists on either side.
I think you can disregard all the official polls, they only get to a very small sample size of the electorate. The main parties internal polling gives a more accurate reflection but the mainstream public will never get access to that data. Unfortunately the sections of the MSM in the know only report their own bias.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
If Boris doesn't want the backstop he needs to propose an alternative. That isn't the EU's job, because they're happy with the backstop.
The supreme irony of this conversation is that the EU do not want the backstop. They know it would allow Britain pretty much everything they want, without paying any money, and potentially be breaking their own laws. Not to mention being highly damaging to the idea of EU integration by setting a dangerous precedent tha you can leave the political structures but not the single market.
But, because they have no practical choice in the matter if they are to keep the Irish border open, they had to put it in. And because Britain wouldn't accept a border down the Irish Sea, it had to be in effect for the whole UK.
And even more deliciously, because they insist they cannot reopen the WA, they cannot get out of it if our useless band of third rate loons, oops, the House of Commons, actually grow up and pass it.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Who's 'he' in this context?
Varadkar, he took a gamble on some populist brit bashing. If he'd cashed in in October last year he's have been a hero and could have called an election and won it. He decided to plough on and now he's headed in to a storm with an election still to come.
Alternatively:
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
Don't suppose there's any chance that this idiot has considered the possibility that the membership of the EU market, and the ability to source materials and expertise from that market, might have knock on benefits for those seeking to export 'outside the EU'?
Raab's big claim from when he was Brexit secretary is he was easily fooled and didn't know what was going on with the WA until it was announced. I know he phrases that differently and puts the blame on May which may be fair enough, but the end result is still he had no clue and didn't even know he had no clue, and we should somehow back him for that .
Raab is a first class tool, but the fact that the last Prime Minister had her Brexit secretaries negotiating in public whilst Olly Robins negotiated a seperate deal behind the scenes is a shame and deception that should sit firmly on her shoulders. She did not need to create a Brexit Secretary post, and if her intention was to do the negotiations directly she should have open about it.
My perception would be May took over after about nine months of David Davis having achieved nothing and only scheduling meetings with the EU one day a month. So she took over because of a delivery failure. With hindsight she should have abolished/formally taken on the role herself when Davis left. I guess neither Raab nor Barclay would have inspired her confidence to delegate it back to the dept.
I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
I think there is more Labour vote to fragment. They have serious established rivals who have clear positions on Brexit and policy positions across the board which will attract disillusioned labour voters.
Boris seems to have set about with purpose leaving the EU. He has set out his position mainly removal of Backstop and put the ball in EU 27 court. He has backed this up with the fact that backstop will not pass Parliament despite 3 attempts. The EU are looking silly now because they are insisting on something that cannot be delivered - even if they did agree it with May, In the meantime preparations are going ahead for no deal. Whilst ultimately I do not agree with no deal and I thought deal with time limit to backstop and alternative arrangements in political agreement will do, I can’t disagree with the progress and determination, and observe this is just as likely to achieve a deal whilst preparing for the worst. This all puts momentum back into Brexit and out of Brexit Party - their strength a few months ago in an election that didn’t matter is now irrelevant. I’d criticise their other policies if they had any.
Yes but a key factor in the election on the cards is with Labour a remain party many seats in the North are up for grabs in solidly leave areas. Conservatives can't win them but the BP can. If Labour loses a chunk of seats in the North East and Yorkshire to add to Scotland they just can't win. That has to be a major strategic factor moving forward, where Farage and Johnson have to find some agreement. Splitting the Brexit vote could be very costly in Northern seats.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
We are going to have a No Deal Brexit if Johnson is PM on 31st October. That much is clear. He has to deliver it or he will be politically destroyed. I think that if there is an election before that time, there is a strong possibility a lot of voters will see it as their opportunity to stop No Deal - and for many that will mean voting Labour. If Johnson grabs all the BXP vote that will not make a difference, he will still win. Bit if a sizeable chunk of it remains unwooable, or drifts over to UKIP, then Labour does not actually need that much of a bounce to, at a minimum, deny Johnson a majority. The gamechanger for him would be to start taking votes from Labour directly. Right now there is little sign of that happening.
Can you explain the reason why anyone would now vote BXP? I have said before I don’t get them in any case, but I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in voting for a party with one policy that seems to be being delivered by another. Now whilst May was PM and due to her inability to deliver I could see the reason to protest. But now why?
With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.
Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?
"United British Empire of England."
Wales isn't a Kingdom
United Kingdom, Isle, Principality of England and Wales.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Who's 'he' in this context?
Varadkar, he took a gamble on some populist brit bashing. If he'd cashed in in October last year he's have been a hero and could have called an election and won it. He decided to plough on and now he's headed in to a storm with an election still to come.
Alternatively:
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
those fighting the remain side oif the brexit tiff will portray anything that damages the other side as principled, logical etc. And vice versa of course.
In all this poliitical grandstanding, ordinary people are irrelevant.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
You have a good handle on why Boris Johnson will capitulate.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Who's 'he' in this context?
Varadkar, he took a gamble on some populist brit bashing. If he'd cashed in in October last year he's have been a hero and could have called an election and won it. He decided to plough on and now he's headed in to a storm with an election still to come.
Alternatively:
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
It's clearly not, though, is it? If it were, we would not have gone through the last three years.
Miss Cyclefree, perhaps most importantly, women are more risk averse than men.
Women are also much more likely to be in the undecideds. It seems that they actually want to see the campaign and manifestos before making their choice. Madness...
Chickens are female ain't they (tho' that one looks singularly unimpressed)? Perhaps if Boris keeps on revealing his non-confrontational, running away from anyone who doesn't like him, beta male persona the lassies will warm to him.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Who's 'he' in this context?
Varadkar, he took a gamble on some populist brit bashing. If he'd cashed in in October last year he's have been a hero and could have called an election and won it. He decided to plough on and now he's headed in to a storm with an election still to come.
Alternatively:
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
those fighting the remain side oif the brexit tiff will portray anything that damages the other side as principled, logical etc. And vice versa of course.
In all this poliitical grandstanding, ordinary people are irrelevant.
I totally agree. Once you unleash the poison of nationalism you end up in places like we are now.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
You have a good handle on why Boris Johnson will capitulate.
May tried capitulation but she couldn’t get it through parly as Remain MPs thought that they could hold out for revoke.
Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?
Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?
Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile
Mr. Nakht, much of that is accurate, but I disagree on one, quite significant, point.
If Boris doesn't want the backstop he needs to propose an alternative. That isn't the EU's job, because they're happy with the backstop.
A longer transition period or a lengthy backstop with a time limit would be potential options. Just saying "not this" is not a serious position. What would the post-transition relationship be with the EU without the backstop?
I entirely understand dislike of the backstop but some sort of alternative does need to be suggested.
Mr. Observer, I strongly suspect the idiot doesn't want no deal but will end up painting himself into a corner. The EU doesn't want it either, but macho bullshit and a desire not to lose face will drastically reduce the chances of any sensible negotiation/compromise (and time is tight anyway).
I fully agree but there is only value in a compromise if the EU sees we are ready to leave without one. My opinion has always been, even as someone who voted remain, that negotiations should have started from the basis of no deal, and then moved together to achieve a compromise. May started from the current position and moved outwards. Her red lines should have prevented this but she still did it.
I think Boris will be able to sell any compromise better than May, as he will be more nimble and positive. A time limited backstop will be an opportunity to take advantage of current terms whilst finalising technological basis at border.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
We are going to have a No Deal Brexit if Johnson is PM on 31st October. That much is clear. He has to deliver it or he will be politically destroyed. I think that if there is an election before that time, there is a strong possibility a lot of voters will see it as their opportunity to stop No Deal - and for many that will mean voting Labour. If Johnson grabs all the BXP vote that will not make a difference, he will still win. Bit if a sizeable chunk of it remains unwooable, or drifts over to UKIP, then Labour does not actually need that much of a bounce to, at a minimum, deny Johnson a majority. The gamechanger for him would be to start taking votes from Labour directly. Right now there is little sign of that happening.
Can you explain the reason why anyone would now vote BXP? I have said before I don’t get them in any case, but I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in voting for a party with one policy that seems to be being delivered by another. Now whilst May was PM and due to her inability to deliver I could see the reason to protest. But now why?
With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?
A lot of BXP supporters are not Tories and will not vote Tory - I'd say that is the answer to your first question.
I don't think No Deal will be stopped unless there is a GE, in which case it might be. I do not see how Johnson gets out of delivering No Deal if he is PM on 31st October.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
You are just quoting a biased report, Johnson was never considered a vile or an extreme politician at all before he became frontman for Brexit.
He wasnt considered extreme because he wasnt extreme. He couldnt decide between remain and leave until he worked out the night before which would be better for his career. He probably prefers remain but has lumbered himself with leave.
He now wants to tie us in to an arbitrary exit date set by the French!! An exit date which is the day before the new EU negotiating team arrive!! It is bizarre.
(Some people would have considered him vile before, others funny, some a mix of funny and vile, depends on peoples character judgements. I wouldnt use vile now or then, extremely opportunistic and narcissicistic definitely.)
It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
That doesn't seem to be how the head-to-head polling shows it iirc.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
Question re: "no deal preparations". Didn't Parliament pass a law a few months ago requiring their consent for any expenditure in relation to the above? Absurd though that was, is, say, the planned "£100m public information campaign" even legal?
I think you can disregard all the official polls, they only get to a very small sample size of the electorate. The main parties internal polling gives a more accurate reflection but the mainstream public will never get access to that data. Unfortunately the sections of the MSM in the know only report their own bias.
Quite. Publicly published opinion polls are simply weapons of political propaganda so as we see on here we have those who support Boris Johnson endlessly referencing or repeating a favourable poll so that the rationale for supporting the Prime Minister is not because he or she has a good argument or is doing a good job but because they are doing well in polls.
For the sake of balance, those opposed to the Prime Minister reach for and endlessly reference polls less favourable for the same reason.
In the same way, public policy isn't driven by argument or what's best for the country but by what scores well in polls. Watching parties pivot or pirouette round policy positions which aren't publicly popular to reach those which are is an endearing aspect of modern democracy. The idea of arguing against the majority is seen as anathema.
At the same time, politics is debased if all that matters is having policy positions which poll well. There was a time when political leaders tried to bring the public to their policy - now, policy making has largely been abdicated to polling and focus groups who tell a party what the public likes or wants.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
In which case the LDs likely overtake Labour as the main party of the centre left, as they did in the European Parliament elections
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
The Democrat who will beat Trump is the one who can get Obama-like turnouts in the swing states. Will Warren persuade black and Latino voters who sat out the 2016 election to go to the polls in 2020? I genuinely don't know. What does seem clear, though, is that Trump is doing all he can to motivate such voters. It may not need much to get them to the booths. I guess that's where the various voter suppression laws kick in.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
In which case the LDs likely overtake Labour as the main party of the centre left, as they did in the European Parliament elections
Yep - that is quite possible. And if the next GE is after Brexit it may happen pretty quickly.
Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?
Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?
Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile
No, direct rule ended some time ago.
The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government.
Nope, the elected president of the Catalan government - an avowed separatist - operates out of the Generalitat in Barcelona.
Nope, the deposed Catalan President, Carlos Puigdemont, is still in exile in Belgium
Behold the master of moving goalposts. Your claim was direct rule was in place which it provably is not given a separatist president there we are told. Now you shift it onto how the former one is not there as if that is the same as the direct rule you claimed. Even if relevant it is not what you claimed.
Shameless. Just admit you didn't Google it before you claimed there was still direct rule.
Spain imposed direct rule after refusing an independence referendum and blocking a declaration of independence by Puigdemont. Only then was direct rule eventually lifted with Puigdenot still in exile, if Catalan nationalists tried to hold another independence referendum o declare independence the Spanish government would likely impose direct rule again
Xenophobes are getting rattled, not happy that people don't like their Emperor. You will be wanting a rerun of the Battle of the Boyne next Harry.
Tbf if Harry ever came back to Glasgow he'd get a couple of hundred of those a year. Maybe England has civilized him and marching up and down outside a priest's house waving a UJ is a little outré for him nowadays.
It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
Reality was suspended a long time ago. The grown-ups have long since left the building. Everything that happens now is about Johnson winning the next election. He has nothing else on his mind.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
That doesn't seem to be how the head-to-head polling shows it iirc.
Take no notice of polling at this point. Biden is ahead because he is known, his attachment to Obama will become a massive handicap when the MSM is no longer able to hide Spygate, Harris will easily be framed as Clinton 2. If the Dem's go with either of those they get beat handily again. Warren will be a much more difficult opponent for the big man, she has a clear vision she can sell, which takes past personal conflicts out of the equation.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
Can you explain the reason why anyone would now vote BXP? I have said before I don’t get them in any case, but I cannot for the life of me see the attraction in voting for a party with one policy that seems to be being delivered by another. Now whilst May was PM and due to her inability to deliver I could see the reason to protest. But now why?
With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?
A lot of BXP supporters are not Tories and will not vote Tory - I'd say that is the answer to your first question.
I don't think No Deal will be stopped unless there is a GE, in which case it might be. I do not see how Johnson gets out of delivering No Deal if he is PM on 31st October.
I think he will use the appeal of history, with a time limited standstill. He will say something like if our friends in America can put a man on the moon in ten years. Then surely we can with our European friends achieve a technological solution for a border in less. It would help everyone if there was a ban on senior European politicians saying it can’t work and Europe will still take us back. Anyway off to work!
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
Question re: "no deal preparations". Didn't Parliament pass a law a few months ago requiring their consent for any expenditure in relation to the above? Absurd though that was, is, say, the planned "£100m public information campaign" even legal?
Will that matter to these desperados, they are lining their own pockets.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
The latest Fox poll has Biden beating Trump by 10% but Trump beating Warren by 1%
I think you can disregard all the official polls, they only get to a very small sample size of the electorate. The main parties internal polling gives a more accurate reflection but the mainstream public will never get access to that data. Unfortunately the sections of the MSM in the know only report their own bias.
Quite. Publicly published opinion polls are simply weapons of political propaganda so as we see on here we have those who support Boris Johnson endlessly referencing or repeating a favourable poll so that the rationale for supporting the Prime Minister is not because he or she has a good argument or is doing a good job but because they are doing well in polls.
For the sake of balance, those opposed to the Prime Minister reach for and endlessly reference polls less favourable for the same reason.
In the same way, public policy isn't driven by argument or what's best for the country but by what scores well in polls. Watching parties pivot or pirouette round policy positions which aren't publicly popular to reach those which are is an endearing aspect of modern democracy. The idea of arguing against the majority is seen as anathema.
At the same time, politics is debased if all that matters is having policy positions which poll well. There was a time when political leaders tried to bring the public to their policy - now, policy making has largely been abdicated to polling and focus groups who tell a party what the public likes or wants.
Made worse by the fact that we now find ourselves in a position where to aim for the support of no more than a third of the electorate is seen as a success - and for parties that don't even aspire to Govt even less than that.
Targeting small sections of the electorate doesn't require compromise or balanced positions. In fact it doesn't even allow it.
It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
There is remaining in a Customs Union, while out of the EU is a stupid option, unless you really want to remain tied to the EU totally. Paying for certain single market access might be a more sensible way out of sorting out the impasse, as the EU surely need our coin. UK will stay as it is, NI will be stronger for Brexit and in purely NI terms No deal is the best option for them, with increased investment opportunities. Ireland would very likely follow us out of the EU in short order.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
It's clearly not, though, is it? If it were, we would not have gone through the last three years.
different people different lives.
the whole of Brexit was totally avoidable if UK politicans had not ignored large slices of the electorate. This is simply the modern version of the Peasants revolt.
I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.
Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?
"United British Empire of England."
I’m rather partial to the “Soviet Union” myself. If Corbyn wins, it’s on!
The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.
The September debates should do a lot of winnowing. The criteria are much stricter, they'll probably get the current 20 down to about 10:
Biden Buttigieg Harris Sanders Warren Booker O'Rourke Klobuchar Castro Yang
The criteria for getting in the September debates is: at least 2% in the polls and 135,000 donors. So far, only five candidates have qualified: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.
I think it's unlikely another five candidates will qualify. Of the next five, I think Klobuchar, Yang and O'Rourke are most likely. But it's entirely possible that they all fail to reach the bar.
Whatever happens, I think we see a host of second and third tier candidates drop out. Simply, if you're not invited to the debates, then you're not really in the race.
This means there's likely 15-25% (depending on how many people get knocked out) of the Democratic electorate that's up for grabs, and how that splits may determine the nominee. So, if O'Rourke doesn't make it, that's great for Buttigieg. If Klobuchar falls, I think that works to Biden's advantage. If Booker falls, then... wait... does anyone support Booker?
I think you can disregard all the official polls, they only get to a very small sample size of the electorate. The main parties internal polling gives a more accurate reflection but the mainstream public will never get access to that data. Unfortunately the sections of the MSM in the know only report their own bias.
Quite. Publicly published opinion polls are simply weapons of political propaganda so as we see on here we have those who support Boris Johnson endlessly referencing or repeating a favourable poll so that the rationale for supporting the Prime Minister is not because he or she has a good argument or is doing a good job but because they are doing well in polls.
For the sake of balance, those opposed to the Prime Minister reach for and endlessly reference polls less favourable for the same reason.
In the same way, public policy isn't driven by argument or what's best for the country but by what scores well in polls. Watching parties pivot or pirouette round policy positions which aren't publicly popular to reach those which are is an endearing aspect of modern democracy. The idea of arguing against the majority is seen as anathema.
At the same time, politics is debased if all that matters is having policy positions which poll well. There was a time when political leaders tried to bring the public to their policy - now, policy making has largely been abdicated to polling and focus groups who tell a party what the public likes or wants.
Made worse by the fact that we now find ourselves in a position where to aim for the support of no more than a third of the electorate is seen as a success - and for parties that don't even aspire to Govt even less than that.
Targeting small sections of the electorate doesn't require compromise or balanced positions. In fact it doesn't even allow it.
The flip side to this is that whichever main party returns to normality first and tries to appeal to a wide cross section of the country with a coherent manifesto will be the party that breaks the deadlock of hung parliaments and tiny majorities. The problem is that could be five years away but it will happen sooner or later.
I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.
Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?
"United British Empire of England."
I’m rather partial to the “Soviet Union” myself. If Corbyn wins, it’s on!
It is the Tories who are delivering Putin's goal of Brexit, and the Conservatives have already weakened our armed forces for him, and the fall in the value of the pound will make it cheaper for Russian tourists to visit our beautiful cathedrals.
At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.
As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
Nope, hes not actually looking, if he was he wouldnt have painted himself in to a corner.
Politically, it's the only place he can be. Economically, there is no doubt that No Deal will hurt the Republic. It will only hurt one country more.
Nope. the correct approach was to park the border away from the politics and sort it out.
Clearly not, if you look at the polling in Ireland.
It's not about polling, it's about what lets people get on with their lives.
It's clearly not, though, is it? If it were, we would not have gone through the last three years.
different people different lives.
the whole of Brexit was totally avoidable if UK politicans had not ignored large slices of the electorate. This is simply the modern version of the Peasants revolt.
We are where we are. I always opposed Brexit because I saw it is very little gain for a whole lot of pain. The only thing that has surprised me since the vote is the Tory dash to uncompromising English nationalism. I thought they'd be a whole lot more pragmatic.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
The latest Fox poll has Biden beating Trump by 10% but Trump beating Warren by 1%
These polls so far out are totally irrelevant when assessing a one on one presidential campaign. With an even wind Warren is all the Dem's have with a decent chance, when you look at the key factors. Going back against Trump with Obama/Clinton retreads seems to me the surest way of losing again, as that will frame the debate. Warren can take Trump on politically and expose him, with her crafted vision.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.
Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?
"United British Empire of England."
"The United Kingdom is to be reorganised into The First Galactic Empire. For a safe and secure society!"
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
There is undoubtedly disillusionment, but when push comes to shove Corbyn will always be supported. It's part of too many members' DNA now. What we may see post-election, though, is a change of guard in the leadership team. McCluskey will not be leader of Unite for that much longer and his move into high-luxury retirement will see a lot of others moving out, too - including, I suspect, Milne, Murray, Murphy and Formby.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
I think she has the best chance of any. She has a vision and the ability to articulate it very well. She will work as hard as Trump as well, which shouldn't be underestimated. I would give her an even chance of beating Trump the others much less.
The Democrat who will beat Trump is the one who can get Obama-like turnouts in the swing states. Will Warren persuade black and Latino voters who sat out the 2016 election to go to the polls in 2020? I genuinely don't know. What does seem clear, though, is that Trump is doing all he can to motivate such voters. It may not need much to get them to the booths. I guess that's where the various voter suppression laws kick in.
Trump will be banking on getting more Black and Latino's voting for him on economic grounds. Another Clinton or Obama retread will help him secure a bigger proportion of those votes.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
Boris is doing what is best for Boris and that is why I believe he will massage the story as it evolves, as he has no intention of leaving office anytime soon
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
I think Johnson would love to avoid No Deal I just don't see a plausible route to doing that. If he puts the country first he will find a way of avoiding No Deal, if he puts himself first he will go for No Deal to get BXP support.
She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
I don't think there any many cast iron certainties in these febrile times but a successful reunification referendum following NDB leading to the liberation of the six counties is as close to one as can be found,
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
I think Johnson would love to avoid No Deal I just don't see a plausible route to doing that. If he puts the country first he will find a way of avoiding No Deal, if he puts himself first he will go for No Deal to get BXP support.
If the alternative to No Deal is No Brexit he is not putting the country first. He is condemning it to chaos.
She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
I don't think there any many cast iron certainties in these febrile times but a successful reunification referendum following NDB leading to the liberation of the six counties is as close to one as can be found,
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
I'm not sure I'm enjoying the "Thelma & Louise" aspect of all this. It didn't end well for them as I recall and as Boris and Michel (please don't kiss, the analogy only stretches so far). Seeing a countdown clock on Sky News reminds us all we are heading toward the cliff edge.
Boris can't afford to blink - he would be politically destroyed if we didn't leave on 31/10. Now, amusing and welcome though that might be, that also inhibits practical thinking. Boris will have seen the impact assessments for a "No Deal" crash out when in Government and the sense of panic in Government is palpable. It won't be the big things that let us down but the little things and that's what the media vultures would concentrate on.
Carney and others have made their assessments so if we leave without a WA on 31/10, we can't say Boris didn't know what might happen. Of course, short of the sky falling, some will proclaim a No Deal an instant success but as we can see, Boris is ramping up Government borrowing in an almost Brownian splurge and that will come back and bite us on the rear end and his socialism will cost us all in higher debt interest payments down the road.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
I think this is broadly correct. The real wrecker is Dominic Cummings so the idea that he wants a deal is to misunderstand the man. Like Farage he'd most like to bring down the EU. Failing (or alongside) that, he'd like to bring down the civil service, the House of Commons, the ERG, Labour (obvs) and anything else vaguely institutionalised.
Note well that this is the hard right rock from which Paul Staines (Guido Fawkes) was hewn. It's the extreme libertarian hard right.
I'm not sure Boris Johnson belongs to this ideologically. He doesn't really believe in anything except shagging other people's wives. He's the ultimate chameleon and charlatan.
But he has been totally boxed in. In order to win the leadership he had to hit Alt-Right. He did, and now he's forced to deliver on those promises.
Not least of his problems is that he doesn't have a majority in the Commons for that stance. He's probably about 100 MPs shy of it. So he's stuffed, hence why they've been attempting to come up with devious plans to bypass Parliament, all of which are probably doomed.
If he climbs down, which wouldn't bother him in the slightest providing he can remain in No.10 and carry on shagging, he will be stuffed by everyone to the natural right of him who at this very moment are watching his every move, ready to pounce.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
I think Johnson would love to avoid No Deal I just don't see a plausible route to doing that. If he puts the country first he will find a way of avoiding No Deal, if he puts himself first he will go for No Deal to get BXP support.
If the alternative to No Deal is No Brexit he is not putting the country first. He is condemning it to chaos.
If the alternative to No Brexit is No Deal, you can hardly claim that avoiding chaos is high on your list of priorities.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
Boris might be double-bluffing. He has made a couple of speeches extolling GM crops which is a key demand of the United States. Perhaps Boris really does want no deal.
of course Johnson wants no deal. why on earth does anyone think he wants a deal? he is just another wrecker, like the people he has chosen for his cabinet. plus he thinks he is Churchill, and likes the idea of Britain standing alone against the EU, which he has compared to Hitler.
As Boris is a proven serial liar we do not know what he wants. His track record suggests he will say and do anything to become PM. Now he is PM it seems reasonable to assume he will do and say whatever is most likely to stop him being the shortest serving PM in history. That may well require a deal.
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
Corbyn will not stand down as Labour leader until he has a replacement that the far left can be sure will be voted in as next leader. There is no sign of such a person emerging so he is going to be there for a long time yet, whatever happens at the next GE.
I disagree, I think disillusionment is already setting in. I think he will be ousted PDQ if Labour have a poor GE, if not before. That could a game changer unless they manage o choose someone almost as bad.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
I think Johnson would love to avoid No Deal I just don't see a plausible route to doing that. If he puts the country first he will find a way of avoiding No Deal, if he puts himself first he will go for No Deal to get BXP support.
If the alternative to No Deal is No Brexit he is not putting the country first. He is condemning it to chaos.
The alternative to No Deal on October 31st obviously includes no deal at a future date. Why should we be tied to a deadline chosen by the French that the UK had no say on? How is that taking back control?
Corbyn is a major obstacle to tactical voting and therefore I see a Johnson win as long as he delivers a Brexit that wins over sufficient BXP voters.
A Johnson win is very possible, but don't know if Corbyn is such an obstacle to tactical voting. Last time got 40% of the vote while rejecting a 2nd referendum, up against a PM advocating hard Brexit.
If we have an election in October, he's running a campaign for Ref 2 against a Tory PM who is going for No Deal. I'd expect the logic of Brexit-based tactical voting to be just as strong. Now that will probably benefit the Lib Dems in many seats rather than Labour, but I think tactical voting will be a big factor next time (edit to add, both for and against the Tories).
It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
EFTA* with a customs arrangement has been the obvious way ahead since even before the referendum. I honestly think that if the British public would listen to an explanation of what that meant it would be their prefered outcome. It honours the referendum, and the GFA, and we maintain the bits of the EU relationship we like (basically trade), whilst ditching the bits we don't (the social and political stuff).
Crashing out isn't going to work, revoke won't either, and anyone with a brain can see that. Some compromise is the only way of resolving the issue, unfortunately we are more polarised than ever.
The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.
The September debates should do a lot of winnowing. The criteria are much stricter, they'll probably get the current 20 down to about 10:
Biden Buttigieg Harris Sanders Warren Booker O'Rourke Klobuchar Castro Yang
The criteria for getting in the September debates is: at least 2% in the polls and 135,000 donors. So far, only five candidates have qualified: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren.
I think it's unlikely another five candidates will qualify. Of the next five, I think Klobuchar, Yang and O'Rourke are most likely. But it's entirely possible that they all fail to reach the bar.
Whatever happens, I think we see a host of second and third tier candidates drop out. Simply, if you're not invited to the debates, then you're not really in the race.
This means there's likely 15-25% (depending on how many people get knocked out) of the Democratic electorate that's up for grabs, and how that splits may determine the nominee. So, if O'Rourke doesn't make it, that's great for Buttigieg. If Klobuchar falls, I think that works to Biden's advantage. If Booker falls, then... wait... does anyone support Booker?
The Wikipedia chart says Booker and O'Rourke have already qualified. Of the others, KLOBUCHAR has done 120K donors and needs another 10K over August. Even if she's already tapped out all her ex-boyfriends that sounds like something you could do easily over a weekend if you were prepared to spend money on advertising than you raised.
Castro and Yang both have 3 polls out of the necessary 4, and final poll can be either national or in an early caucus / primary state. US pollsters seem to like doing polls of like 400 people, so for each candidate it's literally a matter of somebody finding a single supporter in a single poll. Which is basically pretty much random if they don't roll any sixes, but we may find some generous politics enthusiast commissions a lot of low-quality polls from approved pollsters in late August...
It strikes me that the absolute reality of it is that the UK must remain in the Customs Union as a whole, as there is no other solution to the NI issue. Would probably also require alignment with many single market regulations.
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
Some compromise is the only way of resolving the issue, unfortunately we are more polarised than ever.
This is absolutely true. However (see my post below), the moment he goes down that route he will be taken to the cleaners by the hard right. You think the ERG (already pissed off) and the BXP are going to sit idly by and allow their beloved fantasy be blown away again?
The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.
That seems a good call to me. 22% is Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since the EU election two months ago - and suggests that other pollsters will record them not far off 30%. The evidence of polarisation is beginning to appear as we move away from the four-way split of recent weeks.
Comments
Shameless. Just admit you didn't Google it before you claimed there was still direct rule.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/jeremy-corbyn-tells-manchester-ready-16654031
Edit - the last time I can find for him being in any of the three Celtic nations was Lyra McKee's funeral in April.
If it's Varadkar, I quote your own post to you:
'Varadkar looking over the cliff.'
Raab is a first class tool, but the fact that the last Prime Minister had her Brexit secretaries negotiating in public whilst Olly Robins negotiated a seperate deal behind the scenes is a shame and deception that should sit firmly on her shoulders. She did not need to create a Brexit Secretary post, and if her intention was to do the negotiations directly she should have open about it.
If Boris doesn't want the backstop he needs to propose an alternative. That isn't the EU's job, because they're happy with the backstop.
A longer transition period or a lengthy backstop with a time limit would be potential options. Just saying "not this" is not a serious position. What would the post-transition relationship be with the EU without the backstop?
I entirely understand dislike of the backstop but some sort of alternative does need to be suggested.
Mr. Observer, I strongly suspect the idiot doesn't want no deal but will end up painting himself into a corner. The EU doesn't want it either, but macho bullshit and a desire not to lose face will drastically reduce the chances of any sensible negotiation/compromise (and time is tight anyway).
But, because they have no practical choice in the matter if they are to keep the Irish border open, they had to put it in. And because Britain wouldn't accept a border down the Irish Sea, it had to be in effect for the whole UK.
And even more deliciously, because they insist they cannot reopen the WA, they cannot get out of it if our useless band of third rate loons, oops, the House of Commons, actually grow up and pass it.
Seems Warren won the zinger of the night award. She can be very good in these kinds of debates, but can she beat Trump? I am just not convinced.
So how come he stands now before the British, viewed by many as this stoic and dignified statesman? Well, imagine, without smiling ear-to-ear at the very thought, that your job performance was measured on your ability to appear more statesmanlike and consistent than Johnson; more clear and definitive than May; or more truthful and probing than Nigel Farage. Just saying the same thing two days in a row would put you in a handsome lead, even before we get on to the specifics of what is said. Ireland is not just mammothly pro-European, and deeply invested in the Northern Irish peace process, it is aghast at the cohort of nonsensical charlatans that have seized power in Britain. Johnson and his new administration haven’t fully realised just how vile they appear to the rest of the world – and Ireland especially. They are, in short, acting like a pantomime version of the Etonian imperialists Irish people have sung rebel songs about for centuries: a prime minister, who in his time as foreign secretary is said to have asked why Varadkar, a man of Indian heritage, isn’t “called Murphy like all the rest of them”; a foreign secretary who just threatened Northern Ireland with direct rule mere days into the job. Standing up to this is not just strategically essential for Varadkar, it’s as close to a no-risk gambit as exists in modern domestic politics.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/leo-varadkar-uk-ireland-boris-johnson
I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.
The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.
I think there is more Labour vote to fragment. They have serious established rivals who have clear positions on Brexit and policy positions across the board which will attract disillusioned labour voters.
Boris seems to have set about with purpose leaving the EU. He has set out his position mainly removal of Backstop and put the ball in EU 27 court. He has backed this up with the fact that backstop will not pass Parliament despite 3 attempts. The EU are looking silly now because they are insisting on something that cannot be delivered - even if they did agree it with May, In the meantime preparations are going ahead for no deal. Whilst ultimately I do not agree with no deal and I thought deal with time limit to backstop and alternative arrangements in political agreement will do, I can’t disagree with the progress and determination, and observe this is just as likely to achieve a deal whilst preparing for the worst. This all puts momentum back into Brexit and out of Brexit Party - their strength a few months ago in an election that didn’t matter is now irrelevant. I’d criticise their other policies if they had any.
Yes but a key factor in the election on the cards is with Labour a remain party many seats in the North are up for grabs in solidly leave areas. Conservatives can't win them but the BP can. If Labour loses a chunk of seats in the North East and Yorkshire to add to Scotland they just can't win. That has to be a major strategic factor moving forward, where Farage and Johnson have to find some agreement. Splitting the Brexit vote could be very costly in Northern seats.
With regards to stopping no deal the choice may soon be no deal or revoke. There is no reason for EU to give us more time. To be fair to Boris he has a strong defence in his position in that he is legally bound to get any deal through Parliament. They won’t approve the backstop, the only deal that scraped through was WA without the backstop. The EU can say the WA cannot change until they are blue in the face, Boris is no more likely to get it through than May. So is revoke more popular than no deal?
There is a silver lining for me in that I strongly believe that the Conservatives should own the consequences of Brexit - it would let them off the hook if they get out of delivering whatever it is that they cook up which seems increasingly like No Deal.
There is the added bonus that we will then finally see the back of Corbyn who has been the most utterly useless LOTO in my lifetime and I include Michael Foot in that assessment.
UKIP
those fighting the remain side oif the brexit tiff will portray anything that damages the other side as principled, logical etc. And vice versa of course.
In all this poliitical grandstanding, ordinary people are irrelevant.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1156469384652701697
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1156475809609240576
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1156303973575462915?s=20
Even on that basis that means folk have been considering him a vile or an extreme politician for over 3 years.
I think Boris will be able to sell any compromise better than May, as he will be more nimble and positive. A time limited backstop will be an opportunity to take advantage of current terms whilst finalising technological basis at border.
I don't think No Deal will be stopped unless there is a GE, in which case it might be. I do not see how Johnson gets out of delivering No Deal if he is PM on 31st October.
He now wants to tie us in to an arbitrary exit date set by the French!! An exit date which is the day before the new EU negotiating team arrive!! It is bizarre.
(Some people would have considered him vile before, others funny, some a mix of funny and vile, depends on peoples character judgements. I wouldnt use vile now or then, extremely opportunistic and narcissicistic definitely.)
There is no way around this.
Brexiteers can rage all they want, but the history of our isles is reaching from the past and has bent reality into this shape and there is nothing that can done.
Grown ups face and deal with the world as it is, not as they think it should be.
It time we may be able to leave this institutions as many seem to think that a united Ireland is only a generation away. But until then...
For the sake of balance, those opposed to the Prime Minister reach for and endlessly reference polls less favourable for the same reason.
In the same way, public policy isn't driven by argument or what's best for the country but by what scores well in polls. Watching parties pivot or pirouette round policy positions which aren't publicly popular to reach those which are is an endearing aspect of modern democracy. The idea of arguing against the majority is seen as anathema.
At the same time, politics is debased if all that matters is having policy positions which poll well. There was a time when political leaders tried to bring the public to their policy - now, policy making has largely been abdicated to polling and focus groups who tell a party what the public likes or wants.
At the moment winning the next election seems like coming down to who unites the leave and remain sides most successfully. Corbyn’s has little hope of uniting the Remain side so my money would be on a Tory win though I am far from convinced the Johnson will push the No Deal button when it comes to the crunch but I would still rate it more likely to happen than the retainers lining up behind Corbyn and Milne.
https://www.scribd.com/document/420144129/Fox-news-poll-July-29
Targeting small sections of the electorate doesn't require compromise or balanced positions. In fact it doesn't even allow it.
I think Boris is playing hard ball to get the EU to shift but will manipulate the message as the process evolves. Boris is a master at changing the message and while no one knows how he will do it by the 31st Oct I expect him to do so.
It is interesting that Dominic Cummings wants a deal and is at loggerheads with Farage who suspects he will betray Farage's extreme no deal.
We can only hope Boris can play the high stakes and win through. A no deal would be a disaster and I would be out of the conservative party if it comes about
the whole of Brexit was totally avoidable if UK politicans had not ignored large slices of the electorate. This is simply the modern version of the Peasants revolt.
I think it's unlikely another five candidates will qualify. Of the next five, I think Klobuchar, Yang and O'Rourke are most likely. But it's entirely possible that they all fail to reach the bar.
Whatever happens, I think we see a host of second and third tier candidates drop out. Simply, if you're not invited to the debates, then you're not really in the race.
This means there's likely 15-25% (depending on how many people get knocked out) of the Democratic electorate that's up for grabs, and how that splits may determine the nominee. So, if O'Rourke doesn't make it, that's great for Buttigieg. If Klobuchar falls, I think that works to Biden's advantage. If Booker falls, then... wait... does anyone support Booker?
Eurozone economic growth halves and inflation slows
Eurozone grows by 0.2% in second quarter
Fed expected to cut rates for first time in a decade
Pound rebounds from 28-month low
Boris can't afford to blink - he would be politically destroyed if we didn't leave on 31/10. Now, amusing and welcome though that might be, that also inhibits practical thinking. Boris will have seen the impact assessments for a "No Deal" crash out when in Government and the sense of panic in Government is palpable. It won't be the big things that let us down but the little things and that's what the media vultures would concentrate on.
Carney and others have made their assessments so if we leave without a WA on 31/10, we can't say Boris didn't know what might happen. Of course, short of the sky falling, some will proclaim a No Deal an instant success but as we can see, Boris is ramping up Government borrowing in an almost Brownian splurge and that will come back and bite us on the rear end and his socialism will cost us all in higher debt interest payments down the road.
Note well that this is the hard right rock from which Paul Staines (Guido Fawkes) was hewn. It's the extreme libertarian hard right.
I'm not sure Boris Johnson belongs to this ideologically. He doesn't really believe in anything except shagging other people's wives. He's the ultimate chameleon and charlatan.
But he has been totally boxed in. In order to win the leadership he had to hit Alt-Right. He did, and now he's forced to deliver on those promises.
Not least of his problems is that he doesn't have a majority in the Commons for that stance. He's probably about 100 MPs shy of it. So he's stuffed, hence why they've been attempting to come up with devious plans to bypass Parliament, all of which are probably doomed.
If he climbs down, which wouldn't bother him in the slightest providing he can remain in No.10 and carry on shagging, he will be stuffed by everyone to the natural right of him who at this very moment are watching his every move, ready to pounce.
He's stuffed. So are we.
If we have an election in October, he's running a campaign for Ref 2 against a Tory PM who is going for No Deal. I'd expect the logic of Brexit-based tactical voting to be just as strong. Now that will probably benefit the Lib Dems in many seats rather than Labour, but I think tactical voting will be a big factor next time (edit to add, both for and against the Tories).
Crashing out isn't going to work, revoke won't either, and anyone with a brain can see that. Some compromise is the only way of resolving the issue, unfortunately we are more polarised than ever.
* It could be a UK-only EFTA clone if necessary.
Castro and Yang both have 3 polls out of the necessary 4, and final poll can be either national or in an early caucus / primary state. US pollsters seem to like doing polls of like 400 people, so for each candidate it's literally a matter of somebody finding a single supporter in a single poll. Which is basically pretty much random if they don't roll any sixes, but we may find some generous politics enthusiast commissions a lot of low-quality polls from approved pollsters in late August...
As I say, he's stuffed. As are we.
It seems now that not being happy clappy about no deal is unpatriotic.
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1156310721933828097?s=20