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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Dem

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

The second round of Democratic nomination debates has once again been split into two because there are so many candidates still in the race who met the organisers qualification rules.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,033
    Good morning jockeys!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    edited July 2019
    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,314
    “Do you think if Britain leaves the European Union without a negotiated deal, it will make Scottish Independence more, less, or equally likely, than if we leave with a deal?”

    More likely 42%
    No difference 22%
    Less likely 6%
    Don’t know 30%

    (YouGov, 2721 GB adults, 29 Jul 2019)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,314
    Voters right that Tories don't care – Cummings

    It has emerged that Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave svengali, gave a speech in 2017 indicting the Conservatives did not care about poorer people or the NHS. “That is what most people in the country have thought about the Tory party for decades. I know a lot of Tory MPs and I am sad to say the public is basically correct.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/31/wednesday-briefing-voters-right-that-tories-dont-care-cummings
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    Well, that's an easy answer.

    No, because if you had your sights on his head, you'd miss everything vital.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,314
    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Westminster does not care. It really doesn't. The entire machine is broken. That's why the UK is heading for break-up.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,903

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    Or even Brussels.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    There are idiots in every party. This one will remain a former council candidate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,440
    The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    Indeed, I’d hope for a dialling down on the rhetoric but I wouldn’t bet on it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,440
    Talking of clarity Boris’s letter on the last thread is a masterpiece of it. Farage is going to find life a whole lot more difficult than he did when May was PM (I was going to say in charge but she wasn’t really, was she?)

    Men were more likely to support TBP than women. Is it possible that Boris’s attacks to the throat of TBP is part of the reason why support amongst men has risen so sharply?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, just another name of prominent supporters of a party spreading anti-Semitic lies:

    https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1156187055220830209
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    F1: backed, with tiny stakes, the Ferraris each way to top qualifying and win the race (although it's only third the odds top 2, so...).

    They were very impressive on pace in Germany, far more than I expected. My early Verstappen tips shouldn't've come off, and only did so because of Ferrari reliability failures.

    Anyway, odds are pretty much 10 across the board (think Vettel's 9 for the win).
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2019
    Cyclefree said:
    Women are up a bit, just less than men but it might be more fundamental than willy-waving.

    One of the criticisms of Labour over antisemitism is that it too easily lifts suspensions. Well, the Conservative Party has just elected Boris after the spilt wine/get off my laptop row with Carrie Symonds that led to the police being called, restored the whip to Charlie Elphicke (back in the news just before this poll, as has been charged with sexual assault) and the other one, and has announced it cannot be bothered to investigate Mark Field for manhandling the woman in red.

    Are these the actions of a party that takes violence against women seriously? Female voters might have their doubts, for the same sort of reasons Jewish voters question Labour's commitment.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    DavidL said:

    Talking of clarity Boris’s letter on the last thread is a masterpiece of it. Farage is going to find life a whole lot more difficult than he did when May was PM (I was going to say in charge but she wasn’t really, was she?)

    Men were more likely to support TBP than women. Is it possible that Boris’s attacks to the throat of TBP is part of the reason why support amongst men has risen so sharply?

    Turning the Tories into the BXP will win plenty of BXP support, which I am guessing tends to me male anyway. What remains to be seen, though, is whether it is a tactic or a strategy. I just cannot see many Tory MPs backing the borrow and spend populism that Johnson is now advocating for longer than it takes to win the next election.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287

    Meanwhile, just another name of prominent supporters of a party spreading anti-Semitic lies:

    https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1156187055220830209

    Are they Brexit Party or UKIP? I expect that from New UKIP, but I thought Farage started the BP to get away from overt racism.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.

    The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    Isn't it illegal to use somebody's logo without their permission?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    On-topic with the American debates. So far as I can see, nothing of any interest happened. None of the minor players broke through, and nor did the second tier candidates like Beto or Mayor Pete. The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson). Let's wait for the second heat tonight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239
    DavidL said:

    The priority for the Dems is surely to winnow out the field and get rid of the no hopers. Only then can potentially successful candidates start to build a narrative. That is important. Trump’s narratives may be repugnant but they are clear and sharp engaging and energising his base. This bedlam is an inadequate response.

    The September debates should do a lot of winnowing. The criteria are much stricter, they'll probably get the current 20 down to about 10:

    Biden
    Buttigieg
    Harris
    Sanders
    Warren
    Booker
    O'Rourke
    Klobuchar
    Castro
    Yang

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995

    F1: backed, with tiny stakes, the Ferraris each way to top qualifying and win the race (although it's only third the odds top 2, so...).

    They were very impressive on pace in Germany, far more than I expected. My early Verstappen tips shouldn't've come off, and only did so because of Ferrari reliability failures.

    Anyway, odds are pretty much 10 across the board (think Vettel's 9 for the win).

    I don't think the Ferrari is particularly suited to Hungary's windy circuit, and the forecast is for moderate temperatures, so Mercedes won't encounter cooling problems. Red Bull might be more competitive.
    Unless it rains, which is possible, it's likely Mercedes' race to lose.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Mr. B, you might be right. Whilst Germany was exciting the conditions make reading pace tricky.

    One thing that seems the case is that the Mercedes' upgrades don't appear to have done much.

    Got to say I thought Ferrari would be far less competitive on a slow circuit (and Hungary's only medium pace).
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Thst last thread was perhaps, like Boris's time as PM , among the shortest in history.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Scott_P said:
    Those cheeky buggers. They really do love tripping people then gloomily noting how it sucks to fall over.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Their own or from others? Youd like to think those who engage in it would discover it's not impressive, but despite people supposedly not liking it it works. In the short term.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,524
    edited July 2019
    Endillion said:

    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
    And I don't recall anyone saying TM had a man problem back in April.

    Also, there was a lag in women catching up with men back in April, so the same could happen again.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239
    kle4 said:

    Thst last thread was perhaps, like Boris's time as PM , among the shortest in history.

    They don't want you to know about the dark psychic force.

    * looks around anxiously *
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 2019
    I think the Democratic nomination race is now really 2 battles, Warren v Sanders to be the main left liberal candidate and Biden v Harris to be the main centrist, moderate candidate with the winner of each category facing off against each other after the early states to be nominee
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    Scott_P said:
    She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239


    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.

    Take the 500/1.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    Endillion said:

    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
    May did not have as big a lead with men as Boris does though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It does the lie that morality sits only on one side, even if it is possible to argue worst offenders as being more one side than another.
    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure they're right. But we know Tories prioritise Brexit over the UK. Cheap words about caring about it dont change what actions indicate.

    Meanwhile, just another name of prominent supporters of a party spreading anti-Semitic lies:

    https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1156187055220830209

    Are they Brexit Party or UKIP? I expect that from New UKIP, but I thought Farage started the BP to get away from overt racism.

    Possibly just his excuse, and he had other reasons to do with the party set up.

    Meanwhile, just another name of prominent supporters of a party spreading anti-Semitic lies:

    https://twitter.com/Mendelpol/status/1156187055220830209

    Depressingly common.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/dominic-raab-to-urge-firms-to-focus-more-on-exporting-outside-eu-business-trade

    Don't suppose there's any chance that this idiot has considered the possibility that the membership of the EU market, and the ability to source materials and expertise from that market, might have knock on benefits for those seeking to export 'outside the EU'?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
    Sinn Féin were only 1 seat and 1,168 votes behind the DUP at the last Assembly elections. You are not setting a particularly hard threshold for them to cross.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited July 2019

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,262

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Endillion said:

    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
    From memory the (2017 GE) Conservatives where a few points ahead with men but almost equal with Labour with women.

    Although, also from memory, the Conservatives had a particular problem with younger women, women over 65 voted Conservative to a greater degree than men over 65.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    alex. said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/dominic-raab-to-urge-firms-to-focus-more-on-exporting-outside-eu-business-trade

    Don't suppose there's any chance that this idiot has considered the possibility that the membership of the EU market, and the ability to source materials and expertise from that market, might have knock on benefits for those seeking to export 'outside the EU'?

    Raab's big claim from when he was Brexit secretary is he was easily fooled and didn't know what was going on with the WA until it was announced. I know he phrases that differently and puts the blame on May which may be fair enough, but the end result is still he had no clue and didn't even know he had no clue, and we should somehow back him for that .
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,903
    edited July 2019


    The use of "However" is unnecessary. The results are hardly compromised because more men than women currently support the Tories, especially when turnout amongst men tends to be higher at GEs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    Endillion said:

    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
    From memory the (2017 GE) Conservatives where a few points ahead with men but almost equal with Labour with women.

    Although, also from memory, the Conservatives had a particular problem with younger women, women over 65 voted Conservative to a greater degree than men over 65.
    In the 2016 US election Trump had an 11% lead with men but Hillary led by 13% with women, so Boris matches Trump in his more male backing in that respect

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
    Schedule 1 para 2 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 might make that difficult.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    It is an appalling poster that should be condemned without equivication or humour.

    The link to Guido provides to the LDs is he was a candidate for them in a council in 2005, and prior to that a Labour candidate. It doesnt show him as a current activist although of course that is possible.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    edited July 2019
    felix said:

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
    I'm sure they have if hes still affiliated with them now. What I'm sure the fbpe crowd wont do is stop asserting only the other side in general are degenerate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    felix said:

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
    Agreed. And it's dumb. Having two of them vying to be Britain's mini-Trump is very much to the LibDems' advantage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    She may think that but unless she ever becomes First Minister at Stormont the UK government will ignore her
    Sinn Féin were only 1 seat and 1,168 votes behind the DUP at the last Assembly elections. You are not setting a particularly hard threshold for them to cross.
    Yes but the DUP were still ahead and in any case the Stormont executive is suspended for the moment anyway with direct rule likely soon to be imposed
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Democratic nomination race is now really 2 battles, Warren v Sanders to be the main left liberal candidate and Biden v Harris to be the main centrist, moderate candidate with the winner of each category facing off against each other after the early states to be nominee

    It's a little more complicated than that, given Biden and Sanders supporters tend to name Sanders and Biden as their second choices - and that pattern is even clearer with Warren and Harris.

    Also, while Biden is obviously at the conservative end of the party, that's rather less true of Harris. Note that, only this week, she co-sponsored a draft green bill with AOC:
    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/455193-harris-aoc-unveil-first-step-of-green-new-deal
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    The Brexit loons’ complete inability to understand Irish politics is no surprise, but still bizarre:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/leo-varadkar-uk-ireland-boris-johnson
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    alex. said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/dominic-raab-to-urge-firms-to-focus-more-on-exporting-outside-eu-business-trade

    Don't suppose there's any chance that this idiot has considered the possibility that the membership of the EU market, and the ability to source materials and expertise from that market, might have knock on benefits for those seeking to export 'outside the EU'?

    No.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    HYUFD said:

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

    No, direct rule ended some time ago.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Democratic nomination race is now really 2 battles, Warren v Sanders to be the main left liberal candidate and Biden v Harris to be the main centrist, moderate candidate with the winner of each category facing off against each other after the early states to be nominee

    It's a little more complicated than that, given Biden and Sanders supporters tend to name Sanders and Biden as their second choices - and that pattern is even clearer with Warren and Harris.

    Also, while Biden is obviously at the conservative end of the party, that's rather less true of Harris. Note that, only this week, she co-sponsored a draft green bill with AOC:
    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/455193-harris-aoc-unveil-first-step-of-green-new-deal
    Biden is the most centrist candidate, then Harris in the middle with Warren and Sanders competing for the left liberal vote.

    However some rustbelt Sanders voters like Biden and vice versa, agreed
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479



    The use of "However" is unnecessary. The results are hardly compromised because more men than women currently support the Tories, especially when turnout amongst men tends to be higher at GEs.
    Not in 2017.

    Also the Tories won with women the last time they won a majority.

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/women-men-and-the-2017-general-election-by-jane-green-and-chris-prosser/#.XUFIibrTXDs
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.

    The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.

    A lot will come down to how flexible, tactical and informed remain voters are, is there a bigger anti-Boris alliance than we can tell from the polls which ask about first preferences. It seems very likely given the black and white views people have on our PM compared to the more neutral and mixed views on Theresa May.

    If they vote extremely tactically remain can get a majority, if they vote a bit more tactically than historically it would be a parliament which is hung on both party and remain/leave lines, if they vote with similar levels of tactical voting it could be a small tory majority, although probably still no majority (but a perceived mandate) for a no deal.

    I think the middle option is most likely, although of course timing and events can change things dramatically from the current situation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,067

    Cyclefree said:
    Women are up a bit, just less than men but it might be more fundamental than willy-waving.

    One of the criticisms of Labour over antisemitism is that it too easily lifts suspensions. Well, the Conservative Party has just elected Boris after the spilt wine/get off my laptop row with Carrie Symonds that led to the police being called, restored the whip to Charlie Elphicke (back in the news just before this poll, as has been charged with sexual assault) and the other one, and has announced it cannot be bothered to investigate Mark Field for manhandling the woman in red.

    Are these the actions of a party that takes violence against women seriously? Female voters might have their doubts, for the same sort of reasons Jewish voters question Labour's commitment.

    That is part of it. Bit it is also that it is often women who have to pick up the pieces when things go wrong. Boris is threatening the country with economic harm over a date the country did not even choose. We - and a lot of men - worry about our children, how bills will be paid and are not impressed by a lot of grandstanding by rich men who expect others to clear up after them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    ydoethur said:

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
    The thought occurs that the best way to deal with Trump might be to select a candidate who shares his last name. Hed find it harder to trash their brand.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    At least he's looking. Boris reminds me of the climber a few years ago in Wales who got lost in a fog. So he set his GPS to take him to the summit by a direct route. Obediently following it, he fell 600 feet off a cliff that he hadn't spotted on the relief map and somehow hadn't thought to look out for.

    As I recall, he lived, but he was not a happy bunny when the rescuers found him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,239
    Listen to those highlights and see how much of it is Williamson. Biden has the fame and the money and the experience but Williamson has the memetic power.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    ydoethur said:

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
    This will sort things out for you

    https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1159239/How-did-Paula-Williamson-die-Charles-Bronson-wife-cause-of-death-news-latest-updates
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
    I'm sure they have if hes still affiliated with them now. What I'm sure the fbpe crowd wont do is stop asserting only the other side in general are degenerate.
    Well they are aren’t they?

    Brexiteers are prepared to destroy the Union and the economy to deliver their narrow Brexit vision.

    Only degenerates, Nats, and Russian trolls want that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,015
    I’m reliably informed that adversity is popular when it’s in the name of defending higher principles and can be blamed on an outside enemy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

    No, direct rule ended some time ago.

    The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    edited July 2019

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
    I'm sure they have if hes still affiliated with them now. What I'm sure the fbpe crowd wont do is stop asserting only the other side in general are degenerate.
    Well they are aren’t they?

    Brexiteers are prepared to destroy the Union and the economy to deliver their narrow Brexit vision.

    Only degenerates, Nats, and Russian trolls want that.
    That's an argument that one side has more degenerates, which can be argued, not that only one side has them, which is frequently asserted by implication in a self satisfied way. Its like when people call for unity and civility in the same sentence as insulting opponents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    I see someone has taken up Nigel Farage's advice and picked up their rifle if things aren't going their particular way.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1155950439247990784

    That is an appalling tweet by the FBPE guy. I'm not exactly Nigel Farage's number one fan but the use of crosshairs in the current incendiary climate needs to be cut right out.
    It's embarrassing. Hope the LDs have disowned this creep.
    I'm sure they have if hes still affiliated with them now. What I'm sure the fbpe crowd wont do is stop asserting only the other side in general are degenerate.
    Well they are aren’t they?

    Brexiteers are prepared to destroy the Union and the economy to deliver their narrow Brexit vision.

    Only degenerates, Nats, and Russian trolls want that.
    No, Brexiteers want the Union and Brexit and a Deal over No Deal but on a forced choice choose No Deal Brexit rather than No Brexit at all.


    The SNP is still below 2015 levels even after Brexit anyway
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

    No, direct rule ended some time ago.

    The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government.

    Nope, the elected president of the Catalan government - an avowed separatist - operates out of the Generalitat in Barcelona.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,435
    edited July 2019
    I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.

    Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?

    "United British Empire of England."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Miss Cyclefree, perhaps most importantly, women are more risk averse than men.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905



    The use of "However" is unnecessary. The results are hardly compromised because more men than women currently support the Tories, especially when turnout amongst men tends to be higher at GEs.
    Not in 2017.

    Also the Tories won with women the last time they won a majority.

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/women-men-and-the-2017-general-election-by-jane-green-and-chris-prosser/#.XUFIibrTXDs
    Yet the Tories had a smaller lead with men than Boris has with Yougov today and Boris still leads with women even if by less than Cameron did
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    I’m reliably informed that adversity is popular when it’s in the name of defending higher principles and can be blamed on an outside enemy.
    +1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,740
    Morning all :)

    The YouGov poll seized on so avidly by the Boris Brigade isn't much different to the poll at the weekend with only small moves within MoE.

    Again, supporters of the Prime Minister will quote polls like this ad infinitum and ad nauseam but OTOH we have Com Res and Opinium which show very different numbers and much smaller Conservative leads. YouGov reflects the kind of political honeymoon Boris's supporters are claiming he is having but other polls show a different response.

    Which is correct? Who knows but unfortunately the diversity provides ample ammunition for the protagonists on either side.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    HYUFD said:

    Endillion said:

    Is it plausible that women take longer than men to change their minds/don't jump to decisions as quickly?

    Also didn't Theresa May essentially lose her majority because she had a women problem? Sure I saw that research quoted on this site at some point...
    May did not have as big a lead with men as Boris does though
    About the same, I think:
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,015
    Chris said:

    I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.

    Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?

    "United British Empire of England."

    Former United Kingdom of England and Wales.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    I’m reliably informed that adversity is popular when it’s in the name of defending higher principles and can be blamed on an outside enemy.
    Well played .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

    No, direct rule ended some time ago.

    The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government.

    Nope, the elected president of the Catalan government - an avowed separatist - operates out of the Generalitat in Barcelona.

    Nope, the deposed Catalan President, Carlos Puigdemont, is still in exile in Belgium
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Chris said:

    I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.

    Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?

    "United British Empire of England."

    Wales isn't a Kingdom
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    When was the last time Jezza was in Wales, Scotland or NI ? Or even Manchester?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    edited July 2019

    Chris said:

    I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.

    Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?

    "United British Empire of England."

    Former United Kingdom of England and Wales.
    LOL, very good. Not the best acronym
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    ydoethur said:

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
    Could be worse. Could be Chris.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,245

    I’m reliably informed that adversity is popular when it’s in the name of defending higher principles and can be blamed on an outside enemy.
    It's what the Scots have been trying for 100s of years indeed...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
    The thought occurs that the best way to deal with Trump might be to select a candidate who shares his last name. Hed find it harder to trash their brand.
    Melania? I don't think she's eligible, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    alex. said:

    Chris said:

    I suppose we'll still be able to call ourselves the "United Kingdom of England and Wales." We'll be able to call ourselves whatever we like. We'll be FREE, after all.

    Perhaps "United Empire of England and Wales" will be better. Or even "United British Empire of England and Wales." On second thoughts, who needs the Welsh?

    "United British Empire of England."

    Wales isn't a Kingdom
    It is the Principality, leaving England to be the Power.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

    “No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

    Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

    Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

    No, direct rule ended some time ago.

    The Catalan nationalist leadership are still in exile though even if the Parliament has resumed with the new Spanish Socialist government.

    Nope, the elected president of the Catalan government - an avowed separatist - operates out of the Generalitat in Barcelona.

    Nope, the deposed Catalan President, Carlos Puigdemont, is still in exile in Belgium

    He is the ex-President. Catalonia has another one now following elections in December 2017. His name is Quim Torra.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/17/quim-torra-sworn-in-catalan-president-xenophobia-claims

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287

    The Johnson bounce seems to have stabilised with YouGov. The anti-Tory vote is well over 50%, even if you give all BXP votes to them. That makes the next election impossible to call. As No Deal approaches, I wonder how many current LDs and Greens will drift back to Labour - even with Corbyn in charge. I would not be surprised to see parity come September/October time. Johnson may find that in seeking to unify the right, he will also help to unify the left.

    I think the drift to Labour won’t be as strong as last time. They have proved their credentials as pro some form of Brexit. If you are flat out against then voting for them will not prevent Brexit. Then you have to get over enabling a Labour Party that is being investigated by the EHCR for being racist. Mull that one over for a second. Finally this is a guardianista intellectual labour. So again any working class labour supporters will be disincentivised to vote by policies designed for London and big cities.

    The drift to Labour does not need to be as strong if the drift to the Tories is weaker. Basically, 32% is not the 42% that May got. To equalise, Labour needs to win back the Green votes it has lost and get 5% from the LDs. The SNP will do the rest.

    I think there is more Labour vote to fragment. They have serious established rivals who have clear positions on Brexit and policy positions across the board which will attract disillusioned labour voters.

    Boris seems to have set about with purpose leaving the EU. He has set out his position mainly removal of Backstop and put the ball in EU 27 court. He has backed this up with the fact that backstop will not pass Parliament despite 3 attempts. The EU are looking silly now because they are insisting on something that cannot be delivered - even if they did agree it with May, In the meantime preparations are going ahead for no deal. Whilst ultimately I do not agree with no deal and I thought deal with time limit to backstop and alternative arrangements in political agreement will do, I can’t disagree with the progress and determination, and observe this is just as likely to achieve a deal whilst preparing for the worst. This all puts momentum back into Brexit and out of Brexit Party - their strength a few months ago in an election that didn’t matter is now irrelevant. I’d criticise their other policies if they had any.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    Endillion said:

    ydoethur said:

    . The last thread was reduced to discussing a 1,000/1 shot (Williamson)..

    If you can get 1000/1 on Williamson, take it.
    Shadsy has taken fright and cut her to 500/1 for the presidency and 100/1 for the nomination.
    Her name is awfully confusing. I keep wondering why Gavin Williamson is such a key figure in US politics.
    Could be worse. Could be Chris.
    Don't they boot mad racists out of the Dems?
This discussion has been closed.