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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited July 2019
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The pertinent question is the impact of such tactics on the election outcome itself.
    This means that the election needs to be forced before 31st Oct, which means as soon as the MPs are back on 3 or 4th September, Grieve and co and Labour must no confidence.

    They have no choice now, as it seems the Johnson tactic is to just leave, even if it is the middle of a GE.
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    DougSeal said:

    Morning all and just noticed last night's thread. I am DELIGHTED to see that JRM is fighting back against the bastardisation of our language due to sloppy, inadequate teaching standards for decades and a semi-illiterate media. I hope the new Education Secretary does likewise.

    As .

    Globally want to.
    Worth nasty.
    The Republicans still hold the Senate which must approve Treaties, though the House would need to approve funding.

    Boris has promised not to impose a hard border in Ireland Deal or No Deal.

    There are more Americans of East
    Not this.

    HYUFD refuses to accept that the Irish-American lobby is powerful and influential. He does not understand that it makes him on this topic.
    The Northeastern Catholic Irish American lobby is important to Democrats yes, hence Pelosi has gone full speed to say she epublican Congressman are full speed ahead
    Pennsylvania is 47% Protestant, 24% Catholic

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Americans
    As I say, religion doesn’t come into it. That is a meaningless statistic divorced from the underlying issue. My wife’s mother is Unitarian and some of our Thanksgiving discussions have left me in no doubt as to her sympathies. In many ways she is quite Anglophilic, she loves coming to London and going to the West End, but politically it’s Ireland over the U.K. every time.
    Religion absolutely comes into it, Irish Protestant Americans tend to have closer ancestry with DUP voters from lowland Scotland or Northern England than Irish Catholics and Sinn Fein voters.

    Unitarians are dissenters, neither evangelical or mainline Episcopalian Protestant.

    Indeed because of their failure to believe in the Trinity many do not believe Unitarians are Protestants at all
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.
    (i) The audiences for skilled scientists tend to know English just as well as the skilled scientists.

    (ii) and (iii)
    ydoethur said:

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.

    1. English is the lingua franca in any serious academic and corporate R&D operation these days - look at the percentage of scientific papers now published in English.

    2. Yes, our universities are world class. That does not mean they will continue to be.

    3. Yes, up to now that has been the case.

    World's oldest university is Bologna, and it's rubbish.
    You have pasta damning judgment there.
    Bit saucy,isn't it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.

    1. English is the lingua franca in any serious academic and corporate R&D operation these days - look at the percentage of scientific papers now published in English.

    2. Yes, our universities are world class. That does not mean they will continue to be.

    3. Yes, up to now that has been the case.

    So, you have no evidence to present in favour of your argument.

    All you can say is the future may be different to the past and the present. And you take a grim and utterly unrelentingly pessimistic view of the future.

    Unfortunately, Brexit plus Corbyn has reduced you to a professional bellyacher.

    If this how the Remainers are going to run their GE campaign, they will lose again.

    Mate, I spend much of my time talking to R&D professionals around the world at events that my company organises in the US, Asia and Europe. If you do not wish to believe me, the UK university sector and other major R&D organisations such as the Wellcome Trust, so be it.

    Mate, this is an area in which I too have a lot of expertise.

    I trust my own judgment, unless you give me evidence that suggests it is false.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Surprised you missed Summer 2016 Britain - The EU Referendum itself. The timing may not have been a shock but the result certainly was.

    Clearly you weren't following the polling. My final prediction, on German TV at 2200 on June 22nd 2016 was that it was too close to call - which given the outcome was an pretty good prediction.

    The idea that this wasn't forecast is a myth. Please stop repeating it.

    I refuse to go count the total number of surveys showing a remain or leave lead over a X time period before the referendum again. I just won't do it.

    (the answer is it was exactly 50/50)
    Have a look at the 12 months before the referendum was called rather than the days before the vote was counted.

    Like the 2017 General Election. The result is much less shocking by comparing to final polls but the appropriate comparison IMO is not to final polls but to the polls befors the election was called. Then it is truly shocking.
    In 2013 when Cameron announced there would be a referendum the next 16 opinion polls has 15 leave leads and a draw.

    Shocking that Leave won.
    Actually there has always been a lot of volatility in the polling regarding EU membership, ironically much less since the referendum. I think this mostly the sink costs fallacy, but there was this interesting blog about No Dealers mentality recently.

    https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/1153912031998820352?s=19
  • glwglw Posts: 9,796
    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    Is there anything about Johnson's previous behaviour that makes you think he's a caustious sensible sort of chap who takes such potentialities into account?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    Off hand I don't know, but I know they were cheaper than the UK equivalent which is why they went there.
    It seems to be minimal in Germany:

    In 2014, Germany’s 16 states abolished tuition fees for undergraduate students at all public German universities. This means that currently both domestic and international undergraduates at public universities in Germany can study for free, with just a small fee to cover administration and other costs per semester.

    https://www.topuniversities.com/student-info/student-finance/how-much-does-it-cost-study-germany

    and a couple of thousand in the Netherlands:

    Standard tuition fees in 2018/19 are €2,060 for most courses. However, a political decision recently confirmed will see these fees halved for new starters in 2018. This is a one-off occurrence and tuition fees will go back to normal for all students from 2019/20.

    There are some exceptions to the standard tuition fees and private universities will almost always be more expensive. However, these fees are correct for the majority of courses taught in English in the Netherlands. Fees are set by the government and every year they increase in line with inflation.

    The University Colleges in the Netherlands charge higher tuition tuition fees. These are never more than double the standard tuition fee and in some cases are only slightly higher - always much less than £9,000 a year.

    Tuition fee loans are available for the full amount of the tuition fee. British students who are resident in the Netherlands throughout their studies are entitled to access Dutch tuition fee loans (see information on 'Collegegeldkrediet' on our loans and grants page).


    https://www.studyinholland.co.uk/tuition_fees.html

    I can certainly see the attraction compared to £9,250 for a year at London Metropolitan.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,352

    Mate, this is an area in which I too have a lot of expertise.

    I trust my own judgment, unless you give me evidence that suggests it is false.

    Do you travel or just work within the UK?

    It's perfectly possible for you to see things from different angles due to where you work..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Surprised you missed Summer 2016 Britain - The EU Referendum itself. The timing may not have been a shock but the result certainly was.

    Clearly you weren't following the polling. My final prediction, on German TV at 2200 on June 22nd 2016 was that it was too close to call - which given the outcome was an pretty good prediction.

    The idea that this wasn't forecast is a myth. Please stop repeating it.

    I refuse to go count the total number of surveys showing a remain or leave lead over a X time period before the referendum again. I just won't do it.

    (the answer is it was exactly 50/50)
    Have a look at the 12 months before the referendum was called rather than the days before the vote was counted.

    Like the 2017 General Election. The result is much less shocking by comparing to final polls but the appropriate comparison IMO is not to final polls but to the polls befors the election was called. Then it is truly shocking.
    In 2013 when Cameron announced there would be a referendum the next 16 opinion polls has 15 leave leads and a draw.

    Shocking that Leave won.
    Indeed and had the polls continued like that through 2015 and early 2016 it would have been far less shocking that leave won. In fact, had the polls continued like that through 2015 I suspect that Cameron would have tried a bit harder in his renegotiation and not gone so quickly to a referendum (remember it was supposed to be by 2018).

    However after a referendum was announced the polls swung heavily back to Remain. It looked like after all the huffing and puffing when it wasn't a serious option, that Britain wasn't seriously going to leave afterall.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    Off hand I don't know, but I know they were cheaper than the UK equivalent which is why they went there.
    They're cheaper.

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.
    My English born Nephew goes there fee free, courtesy of his German nationality via his mother, and the Scottish government.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.

    1. English is the lingua franca in any serious academic and corporate R&D operation these days - look at the percentage of scientific papers now published in English.

    2. Yes, our universities are world class. That does not mean they will continue to be.

    3. Yes, up to now that has been the case.

    So, you have no evidence to present in favour of your argument.

    All you can say is the future may be different to the past and the present. And you take a grim and utterly unrelentingly pessimistic view of the future.

    Unfortunately, Brexit plus Corbyn has reduced you to a professional bellyacher.

    If this how the Remainers are going to run their GE campaign, they will lose again.

    Mate, I spend much of my time talking to R&D professionals around the world at events that my company organises in the US, Asia and Europe. If you do not wish to believe me, the UK university sector and other major R&D organisations such as the Wellcome Trust, so be it.

    Mate, this is an area in which I too have a lot of expertise.

    I trust my own judgment, unless you give me evidence that suggests it is false.

    I can put countless statements from countless UK R&D sources alomg the lines of the one from the Wellcome Trust all saying that a No Deal Brexit will harm them. But given that you are not going to believe them there is very little point. We will find out soon enough.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.

    1. English is the lingua franca in any serious academic and corporate R&D operation these days - look at the percentage of scientific papers now published in English.

    2. Yes, our universities are world class. That does not mean they will continue to be.

    3. Yes, up to now that has been the case.

    So, you have no evidence to present in favour of your argument.

    All you can say is the future may be different to the past and the present. And you take a grim and utterly unrelentingly pessimistic view of the future.

    Unfortunately, Brexit plus Corbyn has reduced you to a professional bellyacher.

    If this how the Remainers are going to run their GE campaign, they will lose again.

    Mate, I spend much of my time talking to R&D professionals around the world at events that my company organises in the US, Asia and Europe. If you do not wish to believe me, the UK university sector and other major R&D organisations such as the Wellcome Trust, so be it.

    Southam, you have been living in the Greater West Midlands for far too long when you start your retort with an irate 'mate'!

    That said your point is well made and accurate.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Scott_P said:

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.

    Because it's overwhelmed with feepaying Chinese students...
    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575

    Mr. glw, I wonder how the pro-EU (or, at least, anti-no deal) Conservative MPs who backed Boris are currently feeling.

    Well, no more Tories have resigned the Whip. Be quite an achievement if Team Boris can get through the summer without losing any more.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,507

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    Off hand I don't know, but I know they were cheaper than the UK equivalent which is why they went there.
    They're cheaper.

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.
    Among my Finnish acquaintances there are 6 who have been to or are currently at Scottish universities.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,910

    malcolmg said:

    Why are they appointing an English MP to the Scotland Office when they have 13 Scottish Conservative MPs? Are there really none of them up to the job?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445

    Got to get the chums in place, keep an eye on the natives
    Not many Scots are up to the job.. Remember what happened when a Scottish PM took office.. The whole economy was fecked.. I give you Gordon Brown.
    You eejit he saved the world, and I hate the big clunking clown. It is the Tories that have been borrowing all the money , bleeding the poor dry and pocketing all the largesse for themselves and their chums
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited July 2019

    Skilled scientists can choose where they wish to live. The UK decided long ago to make it extremely difficult for non-EU scientists to come here. Now we have decided to do the same with EU ones, too. So why bother with the UK when the world is your oyster?

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough).

    (ii) The UK Universities are the best in Europe. The only European University in the top 50 in most research league tables is not in the EU.

    (iii) The UK (in many areas of science) punches well above weight and usually only the US is clearly and demonstrably ahead.

    1. English is the lingua franca in any serious academic and corporate R&D operation these days - look at the percentage of scientific papers now published in English.

    2. Yes, our universities are world class. That does not mean they will continue to be.

    3. Yes, up to now that has been the case.

    So, you have no evidence to present in favour of your argument.

    All you can say is the future may be different to the past and the present. And you take a grim and utterly unrelentingly pessimistic view of the future.

    Unfortunately, Brexit plus Corbyn has reduced you to a professional bellyacher.

    If this how the Remainers are going to run their GE campaign, they will lose again.

    Mate, I spend much of my time talking to R&D professionals around the world at events that my company organises in the US, Asia and Europe. If you do not wish to believe me, the UK university sector and other major R&D organisations such as the Wellcome Trust, so be it.

    Mate, this is an area in which I too have a lot of expertise.

    I trust my own judgment, unless you give me evidence that suggests it is false.

    I can put countless statements from countless UK R&D sources alomg the lines of the one from the Wellcome Trust all saying that a No Deal Brexit will harm them. But given that you are not going to believe them there is very little point. We will find out soon enough.

    All I asked was for some statistical evidence. Not "countless statements", but some data.

    Forgive me, but as a scientist, I would like to see the data. Not someone else's interpretation of the data.

    What is baffling is that the data are really easy for the Wellcome Trust to provide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    Off hand I don't know, but I know they were cheaper than the UK equivalent which is why they went there.
    I think the student that went to Munich will have an amazing time, it is a top city.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,656

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    There are votes for Democrats from Irish Americans but Republicans now get more votes from English Americans

    Have you ever been to the USA? I am pretty confident I have never heard an American identify themselves as 'English American' but met many, many Irish Americans.
    Quite a few call themselves WASPs, standing for white anglo saxon Protestants, which means something similar I suppose.
    WASP is more pejorative than owned cultural identity and includes Americans of German, Dutch, Swedish, etc. ancestry.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,512
    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.

    Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,293
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    For EU students usually very low.

    I know several British doctors whose medical degrees were taught in Italy, Hungary and the Netherlands. Sometimes because they couldn't get in here, but as a bonus fees were a lot lower. This matters a lot to those with a first degree, as not eligible for loans.
    How the LibDems agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their interests I don't know.

    How the Conservatives agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their medium-long term interests I don't know.

    How both agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against the interests of the country I don't know.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    On recall. Possible that Rory's idea of HoC just meeting in a different venue might force a recall on PM (a similar tactic was tried during Iraq war buildup apparently):


    https://twitter.com/BBCParliament/status/1154791080203829249
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Surprised you missed Summer 2016 Britain - The EU Referendum itself. The timing may not have been a shock but the result certainly was.

    Clearly you weren't following the polling. My final prediction, on German TV at 2200 on June 22nd 2016 was that it was too close to call - which given the outcome was an pretty good prediction.

    The idea that this wasn't forecast is a myth. Please stop repeating it.

    I refuse to go count the total number of surveys showing a remain or leave lead over a X time period before the referendum again. I just won't do it.

    (the answer is it was exactly 50/50)
    Have a look at the 12 months before the referendum was called rather than the days before the vote was counted.

    Like the 2017 General Election. The result is much less shocking by comparing to final polls but the appropriate comparison IMO is not to final polls but to the polls befors the election was called. Then it is truly shocking.
    In 2013 when Cameron announced there would be a referendum the next 16 opinion polls has 15 leave leads and a draw.

    Shocking that Leave won.
    Indeed and had the polls continued like that through 2015 and early 2016 it would have been far less shocking that leave won. In fact, had the polls continued like that through 2015 I suspect that Cameron would have tried a bit harder in his renegotiation and not gone so quickly to a referendum (remember it was supposed to be by 2018).

    However after a referendum was announced the polls swung heavily back to Remain. It looked like after all the huffing and puffing when it wasn't a serious option, that Britain wasn't seriously going to leave afterall.

    My memory of the polling in the run-up to the referendum is that it was always nip and tuck, and that Leave was very often in the lead. I remember - perhaps incorrectly - a lot of PB discussions about why the polling might be wrong. What did happen, I think, is that most of the very final polls showed Remain narrowly winning - but these were right at the end of the campaign.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,519
    @HYUFD you say “Religion absolutely comes into it, Irish Protestant Americans tend to have closer ancestry with DUP voters from lowland Scotland or Northern England than Irish Catholics and Sinn Fein voters.

    Unitarians are dissenters, neither evangelical or mainline Episcopalian Protestant.”

    Indeed because of their failure to believe in the Trinity many do not believe Unitarians are Protestants at all”


    I should start out with a clarification - not being a Christian myself I confused the United Church with the Unitarians. She is the former. She attends the United Church on New Haven Green, a mainstream Protestant establishment . Apologies but the fundamental point is the same. Her ancestors were Catholic Irish, but she is not Catholic, but identifies strongly, politically and culturally, as Irish American.

    However, your statistic is bollocks and based on a false factual assertion. People of Ulster-Protestant decent (who would be DUP supporters) will self-identify as “Scots-Irish”. on the census forms which, as I have pointed out, is a different category and not included in the “Irish” statistics. Scots-Irish are 0.7% of the population as opposed to the approx 10% of the population who are Irish-Americans.

    In any event, so what? If harm comes to Ireland through No-Deal it is not just Irish Americans who will be pissed off. Any swing voter (and it will be many) who sees Britain as the former imperial power bullying small Ireland yet again for its own ends will put pressure on representatives not to give us any form of deal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,910
    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Why are they appointing an English MP to the Scotland Office when they have 13 Scottish Conservative MPs? Are there really none of them up to the job?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445

    Got to get the chums in place, keep an eye on the natives
    Are the natives revolting .... :smiley:

    ....................................................

    I also note young Malcy that your avatar and mine are related. Fueling speculation that I have a love child in Ayrshire among the turnip nobility of the area !! .... :astonished:
    jack, They are indeed and as things progress I thought it time to dust off my white cockade and get ready to raise the flag. Love child of a famous pie maker sounds interesting.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Mr. glw, I wonder how the pro-EU (or, at least, anti-no deal) Conservative MPs who backed Boris are currently feeling.

    Well, no more Tories have resigned the Whip. Be quite an achievement if Team Boris can get through the summer without losing any more.
    No way will any Tory MPs resign the whip over the summer . For two reasons , they said they’ll give him a chance to see if there’s a chance of a deal , second a lot of the pubic are tuning out with the holidays . You need to do this when Parliament is back and no deal is closer .
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,961



    As for the EU, let's see what it is saying in 2 months time. Simon Coveney let the cat out of the bag last weekend when he admitted that if Britain doesn't do as its told, the EU will insist either Ireland imposes border checks or Ireland will have to leave the single market. I hope Boris plays hardball and makes clear he is willing to see the Irish economy crumble if the EU doesn't come back to the discussion table. In the real world the buyer generally has more power than the seller and in our relationship with the EU, we are the buyers.

    Jesus Christ, are you serious?
    We will make friends and get deals if we aim to devastate an innocent country in order to make things easier for ourselves?
    And we have all the cards?

    I'm not sure if this is further out on the "Vile" axis or the "Deluded" axis.
    That sort of thing is not representative of you as a person.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,910

    Why are they appointing an English MP to the Scotland Office when they have 13 Scottish Conservative MPs? Are there really none of them up to the job?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445

    Scots are being lined up to play the role of the enemy within in a populist election centred on provincial England. So they don't need to be on board - in fact Johnson has probably already written off the SCon seats. Expect a lot more of the wanky anti-Scots rhetoric on this site too (already spotted a bit down thread) as the propaganda machine is cranked up.
    For sure the xenophobes are getting braver
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    For EU students usually very low.

    I know several British doctors whose medical degrees were taught in Italy, Hungary and the Netherlands. Sometimes because they couldn't get in here, but as a bonus fees were a lot lower. This matters a lot to those with a first degree, as not eligible for loans.
    How the LibDems agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their interests I don't know.

    How the Conservatives agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their medium-long term interests I don't know.

    How both agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against the interests of the country I don't know.
    Of course, this is a consequence of Loony Blair's promise "50 per cent must go to University".

    The Coalition should have reduced the number of University places.

    But that too would have come with pain & bad headlines -- some Universities may have had to close, and there would have been a lot of redundancies.

    Better to boot the problem down the road is what the Government thought.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    Boris was in full campaigning mode again today. Yesterday it was 20k policemen today it was northern rail. He either thinks that an election is inevitable so let’s get started or, more subtly, he is trying to scare Labour MPs in marginal leave seats into believing that there will be an election at which they might lose their seats if they don’t back his deal (which will basically be Mays deal).

    I don’t think that Boris does subtle so my bet is on the former. @Cyclefree’s somewhat idyllic sounding summer is going to be pretty busy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,910
    Scott_P said:
    Obviously confident there will be no Scottish Tory MP's left soon so getting an old school chum in now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
    It will be most entertaining to see the London Mayor being reprimanded by the PM for not being ready to meet rioters with water cannon.....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
    Thank God we don't have a government committed to an aggressive expansion of stop and search headed by a PM noted for racist and inflammatory language.
    Wait, what?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    There are votes for Democrats from Irish Americans but Republicans now get more votes from English Americans

    Have you ever been to the USA? I am pretty confident I have never heard an American identify themselves as 'English American' but met many, many Irish Americans.
    Quite a few call themselves WASPs, standing for white anglo saxon Protestants, which means something similar I suppose.
    WASP is more pejorative than owned cultural identity and includes Americans of German, Dutch, Swedish, etc. ancestry.
    You're right it's not specifically English. I had a friend who was quite proud of the label though, so I'm not entirely convinced of your first point.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,656

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    The brawling passengers should be pressed, the ship taken up from trade, the White Ensign hoisted and then she can steam to the Straits of Hormuz (excursion via Cape of Good Hope optional) to batter fuck out of the Iranians.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,575
    nico67 said:

    Mr. glw, I wonder how the pro-EU (or, at least, anti-no deal) Conservative MPs who backed Boris are currently feeling.

    Well, no more Tories have resigned the Whip. Be quite an achievement if Team Boris can get through the summer without losing any more.
    No way will any Tory MPs resign the whip over the summer . For two reasons , they said they’ll give him a chance to see if there’s a chance of a deal , second a lot of the pubic are tuning out with the holidays . You need to do this when Parliament is back and no deal is closer .
    But...but...but...we were promised more MP defections to the LibDems this week!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Surprised you missed Summer 2016 Britain - The EU Referendum itself. The timing may not have been a shock but the result certainly was.

    Clearly you weren't following the polling. My final prediction, on German TV at 2200 on June 22nd 2016 was that it was too close to call - which given the outcome was an pretty good prediction.

    The idea that this wasn't forecast is a myth. Please stop repeating it.

    I refuse to go count the total number of surveys showing a remain or leave lead over a X time period before the referendum again. I just won't do it.

    (the answer is it was exactly 50/50)
    Have a look at the 12 months before the referendum was called rather than the days before the vote was counted.

    Like the 2017 General Election. The result is much less shocking by comparing to final polls but the appropriate comparison IMO is not to final polls but to the polls befors the election was called. Then it is truly shocking.
    In 2013 when Cameron announced there would be a referendum the next 16 opinion polls has 15 leave leads and a draw.

    Shocking that Leave won.
    Indeed and had the polls continued like that through 2015 and early 2016 it would have been far less shocking that leave won. In fact, had the polls continued like that through 2015 I suspect that Cameron would have tried a bit harder in his renegotiation and not gone so quickly to a referendum (remember it was supposed to be by 2018).

    However after a referendum was announced the polls swung heavily back to Remain. It looked like after all the huffing and puffing when it wasn't a serious option, that Britain wasn't seriously going to leave afterall.
    2015 was pretty much the only time period pre referendum with consistent remain leads.

    Even early 2016 had plenty of leave leads.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Why are they appointing an English MP to the Scotland Office when they have 13 Scottish Conservative MPs? Are there really none of them up to the job?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445

    Got to get the chums in place, keep an eye on the natives
    Not many Scots are up to the job.. Remember what happened when a Scottish PM took office.. The whole economy was fecked.. I give you Gordon Brown.
    You eejit he saved the world, and I hate the big clunking clown. It is the Tories that have been borrowing all the money , bleeding the poor dry and pocketing all the largesse for themselves and their chums
    Lol! Yes, the Financial Crisis, his one resounding success.

    It was a big one though, I'll grant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.

    It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    edited July 2019
    DougSeal said:

    @HYUFD you say “Religion absolutely comes into it, Irish Protestant Americans tend to have closer ancestry with DUP voters from lowland Scotland or Northern England than Irish Catholics and Sinn Fein voters.

    Unitarians are dissenters, neither evangelical or mainline Episcopalian Protestant.”

    Indeed because of their failure to believe in the Trinity many do not believe Unitarians are Protestants at all”


    I should start out with a clarification - not being a Christian myself I confused the United Church with the Unitarians. She is the former. She attends the United Church on New Haven Green, a mainstream Protestant establishment . Apologies but the fundamental point is the same. Her ancestors were Catholic Irish, but she is not Catholic, but identifies strongly, politically and culturally, as Irish American.

    However, your statistic is bollocks and based on a false factual assertion. People of Ulster-Protestant decent (who would be DUP supporters) will self-identify as “Scots-Irish”. on the census forms which, as I have pointed out, is a different category and not included in the “Irish” statistics. Scots-Irish are 0.7% of the population as opposed to the approx 10% of the population who are Irish-Americans.

    In any event, so what? If harm comes to Ireland through No-Deal it is not just Irish Americans who will be pissed off. Any swing voter (and it will be many) who sees Britain as the former imperial power bullying small Ireland yet again for its own ends will put pressure on representatives not to give us any form of deal.

    If her ancestors are Catholic American by definition she would be defined as of Irish Catholic not Irish Protestant heritage so my point remains.

    As I have already pointed out to you a majority of that 10% of Irish Americans now identify as of Protestant Irish heritage not Catholic Irish heritage

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Americans

    Boris has of course always said he will not impose a hard border in Ireland but polling there also shows Northern Irish Protestants put the Union with GB first regardless of a hard border in Ireland and oppose the backstop, it is only Northern Irish Catholics who prefer reunification with Ireland over a hard border in Ireland
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,910

    Scott_P said:

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.

    Because it's overwhelmed with feepaying Chinese students...
    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.
    Looks like 3.6K out of 41K so not quite overwhelmed. More like propaganda statement for anti Scottish Government unionist supporting grievance holding loser.
    https://www.ed.ac.uk/about/annual-review/student-numbers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    Out of interest what are the fees at those universities ?
    For EU students usually very low.

    I know several British doctors whose medical degrees were taught in Italy, Hungary and the Netherlands. Sometimes because they couldn't get in here, but as a bonus fees were a lot lower. This matters a lot to those with a first degree, as not eligible for loans.
    How the LibDems agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their interests I don't know.

    How the Conservatives agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against their medium-long term interests I don't know.

    How both agreed to the tuition fee increase when it was so against the interests of the country I don't know.
    Of course, this is a consequence of Loony Blair's promise "50 per cent must go to University".

    The Coalition should have reduced the number of University places.

    But that too would have come with pain & bad headlines -- some Universities may have had to close, and there would have been a lot of redundancies.

    Better to boot the problem down the road is what the Government thought.
    I don't think Britons are thicker than other developed countries which mostly have similar rates of Tertiary education. The standout poor performer in the EU, and that may well contribute to its economic doldrums with half the UK rate.

    What we should take issue with is pisspoor courses at most of these universities often with few contact hours. It is a debt fuelled racket, but the students enjoying themselves wont have to pay it back. All are complicit.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525



    As for the EU, let's see what it is saying in 2 months time. Simon Coveney let the cat out of the bag last weekend when he admitted that if Britain doesn't do as its told, the EU will insist either Ireland imposes border checks or Ireland will have to leave the single market. I hope Boris plays hardball and makes clear he is willing to see the Irish economy crumble if the EU doesn't come back to the discussion table. In the real world the buyer generally has more power than the seller and in our relationship with the EU, we are the buyers.

    Jesus Christ, are you serious?
    We will make friends and get deals if we aim to devastate an innocent country in order to make things easier for ourselves?
    And we have all the cards?

    I'm not sure if this is further out on the "Vile" axis or the "Deluded" axis.
    That sort of thing is not representative of you as a person.
    Oh FGS. One minute you people are saying we have no cards and salivating at the prospect of us being CRUSHED by the EU, then someone points out that actually it is within our power to create a sub-optimal situation for another party, and you suddenly well up and say we couldn't POSSIBLY be so CRUEL. You are utterly ridiculous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    Black tie followed by black eye.
    Not sure if this was quite what Kwasi Kwarteng, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Chris Skidmore and Elizabeth Truss had in mind when they cobbled together Britannia Unchained. Or perhaps it was.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    kjh said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.

    Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
    We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    DougSeal said:

    Morning all and just noticed last night's thread. I am DELIGHTED to see that JRM is fighting back against the bastardisation of our language due to sloppy, inadequate teaching standards for decades and a semi-illiterate media. I hope the new Education Secretary does likewise.

    As .

    Globally want to.
    Worth noting too here that it's not Donald Trump who gets to decide if we sign a trade deal with the US, it's Congress. Pelosi has already warned that the Democrats will veto any deal that flouts the Good Friday agreement due to America's role as a guarantor. With about 10% of the U.S. population (c. 33 million) counting themselves as Irish Americans, that's a lot of Congressmen and women with something to gain by siding with Ireland if things get nasty.
    The Republicans still hold the Senate which must approve Treaties, though the House would need to approve funding.

    Boris has promised not to impose a hard border in Ireland Deal or No Deal.

    There are more Americans of English origin than Irish origin, especially in the more Republican held South and Georgia and the Carolinas, Americans if Irish origin tend to be based more in the Democratic held North East
    Not true. Only about 7% of Americans self describe as English-Americans as opposed to 10% for Irish-Americans. Furthermore, see the voting record and comments of Rep Peter King (R-NY) to show how important it is for Republicans to keep Irish America on side. Americans of English origin in the South (where much of the immigration was from “Scots-Irish ie Ulster Protestants anyway) tend to self-describe as “American” in census returns. There is no “English-American” identity in the same way as there is Irish-American. I’m married to an Irish- American so I’ve some experience in this.

    HYUFD refuses to accept that the Irish-American lobby is powerful and influential. He does not understand that it makes up at least 10% of the population in a large number of swing states and that no US politician would ever risk upsetting it. These facts pass him by because they are inconvenient. It is pointless to engage with him on this topic.
    The Northeastern Catholic Irish American lobby is important to Democrats yes, hence Pelosi has gone full speed to say she will only back a FTA with the backstop.

    The Republican base though is much more Protestant and English based especially in areas like the South and Utah, hence Trump and Republican Congressman are full speed ahead for a FTA
    Los Angeles has a lot of right leaning plastic paddies people of self indentified Irish descent.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.

    https://www.ed.ac.uk/about/annual-review/student-numbers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    malcolmg said:

    Why are they appointing an English MP to the Scotland Office when they have 13 Scottish Conservative MPs? Are there really none of them up to the job?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445

    Scots are being lined up to play the role of the enemy within in a populist election centred on provincial England. So they don't need to be on board - in fact Johnson has probably already written off the SCon seats. Expect a lot more of the wanky anti-Scots rhetoric on this site too (already spotted a bit down thread) as the propaganda machine is cranked up.
    For sure the xenophobes are getting braver
    The Tories should win Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Dumfries and Galloway and Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale and Roxburgh and Berwickshire in Scotland regardless
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,871
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    DougSeal said:

    Morning all and just noticed last night's thread. I am DELIGHTED to see that JRM is fighting back against the bastardisation of our language due to sloppy, inadequate teaching standards for decades and a semi-illiterate media. I hope the new Education Secretary does likewise.

    As .

    Globally want to.
    Worth noting too here that it's not Donald Trump who gets to decide if we sign a trade deal with the US, it's Congress. Pelosi has already warned that the Democrats will veto any deal that flouts the Good Friday agreement due to America's role as a guarantor. With about 10% of the U.S. population (c. 33 million) counting themselves as Irish Americans, that's a lot of Congressmen and women with something to gain by siding with Ireland if things get nasty.
    The Republicans still hold the Senate which must approve Treaties, though the House would need to approve funding.

    Boris has promised not to impose a hard border in Ireland Deal or No Deal.

    There are more Americans of English origin than Irish origin, especially in the more Republican held South and Georgia and the Carolinas, Americans if Irish origin tend to be based more in the Democratic held North East
    Not true. Only about 7% of Americans self describe as English-Americans as opposed to 10% for Irish-Americans. Furthermore, see the voting record and comments of Rep his.

    HYUFD refuses to accept that the Irish-American lobby is powerful and influential. He does not understand that it makes up at least 10% of the population in a large number of swing states and that no US politician would ever risk upsetting it. These facts pass him by because they are inconvenient. It is pointless to engage with him on this topic.
    The Northeastern Catholic Irish American lobby is important to Democrats yes, hence Pelosi has gone full speed to say she will only back a FTA with the backstop.

    The Republican base though is much more Protestant and English based especially in areas like the South and Utah, hence Trump and Republican Congressman are full speed ahead for a FTA
    Los Angeles has a lot of right leaning plastic paddies people of self indentified Irish descent.
    Los Angeles is one of the most Democratic cities in the nation so thanks for confirming my point
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Looks like 3.6K out of 41K so not quite overwhelmed.

    China 3,624

    EU 5,258

    Which was the original question...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    DavidL said:

    What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.

    It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.

    That self-persuasion is likely to become increasingly difficult, David.

    What you gonna do?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.

    Because it's overwhelmed with feepaying Chinese students...
    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.
    Looks like 3.6K out of 41K so not quite overwhelmed. More like propaganda statement for anti Scottish Government unionist supporting grievance holding loser.
    https://www.ed.ac.uk/about/annual-review/student-numbers
    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    My other half fancies a cruise (Potentially to the fjords) at some point, I'll be sure to show her this video so as we can research to get on the "right one"...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.

    I think Malky is aggrieved he didn't get in to Edinburgh...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    DavidL said:

    What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.

    It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.

    That self-persuasion is likely to become increasingly difficult, David.

    What you gonna do?
    Rationalise that the reality will not be as bad as the promises indicate, of course. What else can you do?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618
    edited July 2019

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
    Thank God we don't have a government committed to an aggressive expansion of stop and search headed by a PM noted for racist and inflammatory language.
    Wait, what?
    Yes, it is Operation Swamp 81

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    Could someone please clarify which of the seven circles of hell this was filmed in?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.

    I think Malky is aggrieved he didn't get in to Edinburgh...
    There will be 5k Scottish students disappointed because their places have been given to EU students after Brexit. This is not a sustainable position.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525
    The existence of Richard Littlejohn is perhaps one of the easier to debunk crimes laid at the door of Brexit.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684



    As for the EU, let's see what it is saying in 2 months time. Simon Coveney let the cat out of the bag last weekend when he admitted that if Britain doesn't do as its told, the EU will insist either Ireland imposes border checks or Ireland will have to leave the single market. I hope Boris plays hardball and makes clear he is willing to see the Irish economy crumble if the EU doesn't come back to the discussion table. In the real world the buyer generally has more power than the seller and in our relationship with the EU, we are the buyers.

    Jesus Christ, are you serious?
    We will make friends and get deals if we aim to devastate an innocent country in order to make things easier for ourselves?
    And we have all the cards?

    I'm not sure if this is further out on the "Vile" axis or the "Deluded" axis.
    That sort of thing is not representative of you as a person.
    Oh FGS. One minute you people are saying we have no cards and salivating at the prospect of us being CRUSHED by the EU, then someone points out that actually it is within our power to create a sub-optimal situation for another party, and you suddenly well up and say we couldn't POSSIBLY be so CRUEL. You are utterly ridiculous.
    Well we could always nuke Dublin I suppose.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,248
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.

    It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.

    That self-persuasion is likely to become increasingly difficult, David.

    What you gonna do?
    Rationalise that the reality will not be as bad as the promises indicate, of course. What else can you do?
    Good luck, mate.
  • edbedb Posts: 66
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.

    Because it's overwhelmed with feepaying Chinese students...
    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.
    Looks like 3.6K out of 41K so not quite overwhelmed. More like propaganda statement for anti Scottish Government unionist supporting grievance holding loser.
    https://www.ed.ac.uk/about/annual-review/student-numbers
    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.
    There is a wide and dangerous perception that the foreign students are dragging down standards quite significantly, especially postgrad. But they have to be admitted by the thousand, at the expense of locals, to balance the books.
    I dont know how true this is (?)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    If I closed my eyes and imagined a boat load of ageing Daily Mail reading Leave voters who'd spent too long in the sun and been given some plastic Union Jacks to play with, it couldn't look more perfect than this. This is the authentic picture of Brexit Britain - old, privileged, ignorant and utterly divorced from modernity, sailing off into their sepia-tinged sunset, while the world gazes on in horror and bemusement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    No more than remainers (other than you, of course) voted to join the Euro. There are nutters on both extremes and guilt by association is not really going to persuade anyone.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:



    Could someone please clarify which of the seven circles of hell this was filmed in?

    Somewhere between a Top Gear studio audience and that freak fest social media summit held by Il Trumpelino.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
    Thank God we don't have a government committed to an aggressive expansion of stop and search headed by a PM noted for racist and inflammatory language.
    Wait, what?
    Yes, it is Operation Swamp 81

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    Could someone please clarify which of the seven circles of hell this was filmed in?
    A hitherto unknown one below the deepest of the seven.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread !
    The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,132
    A very good read. I remember 5 and 6 particularly well. The 1st brought me treasure and the 2nd brought me the sack.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525
    edited July 2019

    ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread !
    The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.

    I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Delirious patriotism followed by a punch-up, with a clown making an appearance? If there isn’t a Brexit metaphor here I give up:

    https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029988791468032?s=21

    If I closed my eyes and imagined a boat load of ageing Daily Mail reading Leave voters who'd spent too long in the sun and been given some plastic Union Jacks to play with, it couldn't look more perfect than this. This is the authentic picture of Brexit Britain - old, privileged, ignorant and utterly divorced from modernity, sailing off into their sepia-tinged sunset, while the world gazes on in horror and bemusement.
    It was pointed out this week that Boaty McBoatface got more votes than Boris Johnson.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,917
    edited July 2019
    ..

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:


    Globally the Irish have far more sympathy, and are generally more popular, than we are. Any action that has the purpose or effect of damaging the Irish economy will be spun as the evil Brits repeating the Famine in the States and elsewhere. Indeed, any action deliberately designed to damage a neighbouring economy will have far reaching negative repercussions for us given the neighbouring economy is part of a political union far stronger than us. We can’t piss far enough anymore to win that sort of contest and frankly, given our inglorious history in Ireland and it’s lethal outcomes, neither should we want to.

    Well said. The idea that a country should seek deliberately to harm a neighbour as part of a strop to get what it wants is disgraceful. That there are some British politicians who think this and that some of them are in government (Priti Patel) is - or ought to be - a matter of shame. Not self-congratulation.
    Priti Patel has said there will be no hard border in Ireland under Boris
    So she has become a #remainernow ? That is the way to prevent one.

    Seems quite the Damascene conversion!
    I think they mean a digital border.
    The digital border that can be in place in November, but cannot be in place after backstop?

    Though the Irish border is not the only one:

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1154761529516003328?s=19

    This is the key point that so may people lose sight of. In economic terms, the Irish border is entirely inconsequential for the UK. Whether it is hard or soft makes very little difference. The borders that do matter are the sea and air ones that the mainland has. They will be hard borders almost from Day One.

    Once No Deal kicks in, Dover will get the focus. It looks like the UK side will keep the border relatively uncontrolled in the short term with a major smuggling risk. The tomatoes will keep flowing. The EU side will severely throttle UK exports with the medium term objective of moving British production, jobs and tax wealth to the continent. Northern Ireland will be utterly screwed. More comprehensively than the Republic, although they will have a bad time too.

    I don't think Johnson can afford a No Deal before an election. He either needs to have the election first or get a deal and hope the Brexiteers are happy enough that they are out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread !
    The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.

    I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
    Yes, Russia is a fine place B)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.

    I think Malky is aggrieved he didn't get in to Edinburgh...
    There will be 5k Scottish students disappointed because their places have been given to EU students after Brexit. This is not a sustainable position.
    Och, it'll all be sorted when Ruth becomes FM.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525
    Foxy said:

    ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread !
    The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.

    I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
    Yes, Russia is a fine place B)
    I'm sure it is. Not a patch on the United Kingdom though in my happily biased opinion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    My daughter did an Erasmus year in Groningen. Absolutely delightful place. All courses taught in English. I doubt that she picked up more than 10 words of Dutch in the whole year. Which is rather a shame really. But those claiming that English gives our Universities some advantages are kidding themselves.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    edited July 2019
    Apologies if noted already, but an omission from Ms Cyclefree's excellent read. The crushing of the protests at Tiananmen Square. Which presaged the emergence of an illiberal State Capitalist superpower.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    kjh said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.

    Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
    We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
    You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it.
    Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,249

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.

    I think Malky is aggrieved he didn't get in to Edinburgh...
    There will be 5k Scottish students disappointed because their places have been given to EU students after Brexit. This is not a sustainable position.
    Och, it'll all be sorted when Ruth becomes FM.
    I admire your candour Divvie.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,997
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    But the greatest bargain in Europe is Edinburgh University (with its 'No English' signs).

    A free education for a university that is clearly in the top 20 worldwide.

    I actually don't understand why it is not overwhelmed with EU applicants.

    Because it's overwhelmed with feepaying Chinese students...
    That is really interesting post, Scott. Is there some data on this?

    Is that how they do it? There is a quota for the places without tuition fees (which of course have to be awarded without discrimination to all EU nationalities, except the English).

    And then they charge Chinese students a tonne of money.

    Genuinely interested, as going to Edinburgh University is like getting an Ivy League education for nothing. It is the best global bargain in University education (if you are eligible).

    I could never understand why they were not overwhelmed with applicants from Eastern Europe, or even Western Europe.
    Looks like 3.6K out of 41K so not quite overwhelmed. More like propaganda statement for anti Scottish Government unionist supporting grievance holding loser.
    https://www.ed.ac.uk/about/annual-review/student-numbers
    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.
    I have a relation who was recently sent to N. America to recruit students to Edinburgh Uni, by whom she is employed. I also have acquaintances who make a living the in SE Asia recruiting students for British schools and universities. Not quite sure how the 'living' is made, but they do.
    I've also been involved with a Thai university where much of the teaching, apart obviously from Thai cultural activities, is in English. I've talked to groups there, in English, about my other speciality (lifelong education) and been asked detailed questions.
    Against that my eldest Thai resident granddaughter has practically given up on the idea of attending an English university, although it's two or three years before she has to think seriously about it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,132
    Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.

    Now 23.

    #BorisBounce
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525

    kjh said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.

    Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
    We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
    You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it.
    Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
    Or what about 'Boris spending splurge: profligate electioneering. 55Bn (+) on a single railway line: taking the right, sober decisions for Britain's future.'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    Mail: "PETER OBORNE: I don't wish to be a gloomster and rain on Boris's parade, but grave doubts surround his ability to deliver"

    No shit, Sherlock!!!!!
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Well, I’m going off in a huff now. :'(

    I give you lots of lovely topics to talk about - but no, it’s wall-to-wall Brexit. Again. Bah!

    I shall find my hat - a fetching purple number (which, cf @ReggieCide, no self-respecting tart would be seen dead wearing) - and venture to my favourite garden centre where they are having a summer sale.

    Bye!!!

    Well on-topic, I thought that riots in general were more likely in the summer? The long hours of sunlight, drier weather (looks outside) mostly drier weather, warmth, etc.

    If that's a real thing, the weather may have a significant effect on dramatic events. For instance, would the coup against Gorbachev had occurred in the middle of a Russian winter?
    I believe there is a temperature tipping point.

    The likelihood of riots (or football hooliganism) increases as the temperature rises to that point but after it is exceeded the likelihood falls as the temperature continues to increase.

    This temperature tipping point varies between countries.
    Riots this summer wouldn't surprise me. Probably the trigger will be the usual one of ham fisted policing using aggressive stop and search.
    Another point which is worrying me somewhat. I have been hearing that there would be a "revolution" in the country if the people's wishes are ignored [ if we do not get a Brexit ]. I believe in places like London, there could be trouble if a No Deal Brexit is foisted on us which no one voted for. Even the Leave manifesto categorically said that there will be a deal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    edited July 2019
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    (i) Skilled scientists normally speak English well, whereas they don't speak Cantonese or Dutch or even French. (Remember, you usually have to lecture in the language, so a bit of Eskervousavez ... is not enough)

    WHich is one reason why so many Dutch, German and Italian universities offer undergraduate courses in English:

    https://www.medschool.it
    Of course, some do, but generally at the Masters level or beyond.
    Over the last five years it's branched out into undergraduate as well. I had two students go to do engineering last year, one in Holland and one in Munich. They couldn't speak a word of Dutch or German, but their courses were in English so that didn't matter.
    My daughter did an Erasmus year in Groningen. Absolutely delightful place. All courses taught in English. I doubt that she picked up more than 10 words of Dutch in the whole year. Which is rather a shame really. But those claiming that English gives our Universities some advantages are kidding themselves.

    One of our journalists had a girlfriend who studied Dutch at university. She found it impossible to become truly fluent because as soon as they heard her accent the Dutch would immediately talk in English. The way she got round it was to move to Belgium and speak Dutch in Flanders! It was not perfect, but it got her more or less there.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Thanks Scott, Malcolm, for the links, on Edinburgh University.

    Do I understand them right? The domicile on entry figures are:

    Scottish 11,991
    Other EU 5,258
    Other UK 10,710
    International 13,353

    If I understand the data right (happy to be corrected), then that is a huge international figure (of which 3,624 are Chinese).

    So, it seems only 29 per cent of the entry is domiciled in Scotland.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kinabalu said:

    Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.

    Now 23.

    #BorisBounce

    I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475
    edited July 2019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I was at my daughters graduation from Edinburgh a couple of weeks ago. The number of foreign students, especially Chinese, was startling. Good business though. The rate the Scottish government pays for domestic students is somewhat short of the £9k that English Universities conventionally charge and the shortfall has to be made up somewhere.

    The promise of keeping free places for EU students post Brexit may not prove to be the clever politics the SNP think it is. The restrictions on the number of domestic students is already an issue.

    I think Malky is aggrieved he didn't get in to Edinburgh...
    There will be 5k Scottish students disappointed because their places have been given to EU students after Brexit. This is not a sustainable position.
    Och, it'll all be sorted when Ruth becomes FM.
    I admire your candour Divvie.
    I'm looking forward hugely to the SCons running their 2021 Holyrood campaign with £9k a year tuition fees at the centre of their manifesto. Of course we know that there's no guarantee that education policies in a SCon manifesto will be supported by them in any subsequent parliament.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    If yesterday or today were a TT not more mountains...

    The French deliberately crafted this type of Tour de France to get the first French winner in a long time, yet it’s that deliberate crafting of this type of Tour de France that has cost them the first French winner in a long time.

    Got to feel for them.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Polls, any ? Even odds changing [ on anything ] ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    A quick few points on Ireland and Brexit.

    Ireland. See: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-ti/irelandstradeingoods2017/toptradingpartners2017/

    Ireland actually has smaller exports to the EU (as a percentage) than we do. And only a relatively modest proportion of those cross the Northern Ireland border.

    However, the border communities are very integrated, both socially and economiclly. Imagine a town five miles from where you are; now imagine that going there, for shopping or a meal, now requires crossing a customs check. (I'm assuming the CTA continue). Massive deal? Nope. But a hassle for local businesses that serve both communities. There will be some pretty cross people.

    The UK. I remain convinced that there will be greater problems between the UK and the RoW than between the UK and the EU.

    The lack of proper import/export documentation is going to be a problem for British businesses that export products that contain components from the EU (assuming that we allow imports in unfettered). I've also been extremely surprised by the lack of documentation from the government about how things will change on 31 October.

    We also need to make sure that we publish our tariff schedule with the WTO now rather than later. (So businesses can, you know, enter into contracts knowing what tariff will be charged on imports, and also so their customers know what tariffs will be on our exports.) Right now, there is an extraordinary degree of complacency - "ah, there'll be a deal..."

    I'm also deeply concerned that the primary legislation to amend tax treaties has not been moved. Or even, as far as I can see, drafted. Right now, Spain has enacted legislation, covering British firms with Spanish subsidiaries. (Which is good.) Italy never repealed its 1988 laws, so they might still cover British firms. But that still leaves 80% of the EU, where British firms subsidiaries are about to be wacked with withholding taxes, and potentially suffer double taxation.

    The decion by HMG to avoid primary legislation to stop the Awkward Squad is making the consequences of No Deal Brexit worse. There's a lot of amerlioeation that can be managed quite easily. But most requires primary legislation to be amended, rather than simply statutory instruments.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,917
    edited July 2019

    ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread !
    The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.

    I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
    Not sure why deploring a government that aggressively patronises a neighbouring country that might be friendly ally, but certainly a necessary one, and one that we are damaging with Brexit - should count as "hating your own country" ?

    Mileages vary, I guess.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.

    Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?

    Result GE17:
    Con (BJ) 23,716
    Lab 18,682
    LD 1,835
    UKIP 1,577
    Grn 884

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html

    Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.

    A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
    He should be ok there - Uxbridge has been trending Tory since the 1950s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    kjh said:

    nico67 said:

    Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .

    If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !

    If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .

    What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.

    Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
    We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
    You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it.
    Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
    Or what about 'Boris spending splurge: profligate electioneering. 55Bn (+) on a single railway line: taking the right, sober decisions for Britain's future.'
    So is Boris now saying he will fund HS3 but not the HS2 link back to London?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 317
    What planet is Rees-Mogg on? Imperial Units as laid down by parliament in 1824 include the chain, furlong and the league as measures of distance, the perch and rood as measures of area and the peck and bushel as measures of volume. And then the apothecaries measures of minim, scruple and drachm.(separate Act of Parliament) A prize for anyone who can correctly identify all of those without looking them up.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    kinabalu said:

    Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.

    Now 23.

    #BorisBounce

    I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
    It does seem strange , surely Bozo would give them a bounce there. Not enough to win the seat but get much closer .

    You would expect a shift from the BP back to the Tories . It would be great to see what the main messages are from the parties there.

    Given there’s so much farming there I would have thought no deal would have been a central issue .
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