Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
“he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner”: I’m not convinced. I think every time his daft face appears on telly another former Con voter jumps ship. He is a repellent.
So is Corbyn. Doesn't stop him being a highly effective campaigner.
Jeremy Thorpe, another excellent campaigner, had to keep running back to his constituency in 1966 and ended holding it after a recount.
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.
Now 23.
#BorisBounce
I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
It does seem strange , surely Bozo would give them a bounce there. Not enough to win the seat but get much closer .
You would expect a shift from the BP back to the Tories . It would be great to see what the main messages are from the parties there.
Given there’s so much farming there I would have thought no deal would have been a central issue .
"Given there’s so much farming there I would have thought no deal would have been a central issue ". I think you have hit the nail on the head. Farmers are beginning to realise that a No Deal Brexit may not be such a great idea. Just like US farmers are learning to their cost re: Trump.
Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .
If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !
If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .
What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.
Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it. Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
Twice as many Republican congressmen voted against Trumps budget, it passed on Den votes. Sane Republicans are getting alatmed.
Los Angeles is one of the most Democratic cities in the nation so thanks for confirming my point
That's a little misleading. Greater Los Angeles stretches 90 odd miles from Laguna Beach to Thousand Oaks. The Southern half, Orange Country, was reliably Republican right up until the 2018 midterms. The Northern half, was more Democratic.
Greater Los Angeles has a population of perhaps 18 million. The City of Los Angeles, which is what you're referring to, is only 3.3 million of the 18 million. I don't think any of my friends live in the City of Los Angeles.
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
“he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner”: I’m not convinced. I think every time his daft face appears on telly another former Con voter jumps ship. He is a repellent.
So is Corbyn. Doesn't stop him being a highly effective campaigner.
Jeremy Thorpe, another excellent campaigner, had to keep running back to his constituency in 1966 and ended holding it after a recount.
Thorpe was the precedent I was thinking of. It may not have been decisive in the Liberal reverses that year but I imagine it was distinctly unhelpful.
The Liberals gained seats in 1966 - ending up with 12 compared with 9 in 1964.
ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread ! The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.
I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
Not sure why deploring a government that aggressively patronises a neighbouring country that might be friendly ally, but certainly a necessary one, and one that we are damaging with Brexit - should count as "hating your own country" ?
Mileages vary, I guess.
Richard Littlejohn will be thrilled that you are accepting his commentary as unvarnished truth.
Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .
If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !
If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .
What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.
Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it. Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
Twice as many Republican congressmen voted against Trumps budget, it passed on Den votes. Sane Republicans are getting alatmed.
And the Democrats are having a field day. Look what we've got our State / District and when it all goes wrong there is someone else to blame.
As for the EU, let's see what it is saying in 2 months time. Simon Coveney let the cat out of the bag last weekend when he admitted that if Britain doesn't do as its told, the EU will insist either Ireland imposes border checks or Ireland will have to leave the single market. I hope Boris plays hardball and makes clear he is willing to see the Irish economy crumble if the EU doesn't come back to the discussion table. In the real world the buyer generally has more power than the seller and in our relationship with the EU, we are the buyers.
Jesus Christ, are you serious? We will make friends and get deals if we aim to devastate an innocent country in order to make things easier for ourselves? And we have all the cards?
I'm not sure if this is further out on the "Vile" axis or the "Deluded" axis. That sort of thing is not representative of you as a person.
Oh FGS. One minute you people are saying we have no cards and salivating at the prospect of us being CRUSHED by the EU, then someone points out that actually it is within our power to create a sub-optimal situation for another party, and you suddenly well up and say we couldn't POSSIBLY be so CRUEL. You are utterly ridiculous.
“We will crush the Irish economy” - as an intent, succeed or fail, makes agreements with us pointless and counterindicated. Believing that we hold all the cards remains as delusional as ever. Incompetent and failed bullying, especially when it wouldn’t produce a favourable outcome even if we’d magically got our desire, is really bloody stupid.
I assume it’s your need to believe it’s somehow possible that clouds your sight on this; the alternative would be quite insulting.
Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .
If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !
If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .
What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.
Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it. Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
Or what about 'Boris spending splurge: profligate electioneering. 55Bn (+) on a single railway line: taking the right, sober decisions for Britain's future.'
So is Boris now saying he will fund HS3 but not the HS2 link back to London?
Nope - he'll found the Boris Tunnel from Leeds to Manchester - I can find zero mention that he will fund the rest of the route...
Mr. glw, I wonder how the pro-EU (or, at least, anti-no deal) Conservative MPs who backed Boris are currently feeling.
Well, no more Tories have resigned the Whip. Be quite an achievement if Team Boris can get through the summer without losing any more.
No way will any Tory MPs resign the whip over the summer . For two reasons , they said they’ll give him a chance to see if there’s a chance of a deal , second a lot of the pubic are tuning out with the holidays . You need to do this when Parliament is back and no deal is closer .
But...but...but...we were promised more MP defections to the LibDems this week!
Timing, Mr Mark, is of the essence. You Tories are so impatient!
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
“he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner”: I’m not convinced. I think every time his daft face appears on telly another former Con voter jumps ship. He is a repellent.
So is Corbyn. Doesn't stop him being a highly effective campaigner.
Jeremy Thorpe, another excellent campaigner, had to keep running back to his constituency in 1966 and ended holding it after a recount.
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
He should be ok there - Uxbridge has been trending Tory since the 1950s.
ER...yes. Britannia still rules the waves. The recalcitrant countries and entities need to be told their place. Otherwise, no Kerrygold on their bread ! The EU will help out Ireland. Ursula von der Leyen even hinted how.
I'm so glad I don't hate my own country. What a miserable, pinched off mental state that would be.
Not sure why deploring a government that aggressively patronises a neighbouring country that might be friendly ally, but certainly a necessary one, and one that we are damaging with Brexit - should count as "hating your own country" ?
Mileages vary, I guess.
Richard Littlejohn will be thrilled that you are accepting his commentary as unvarnished truth.
I mistook your "hate your country" comment as being directed at PB Surbiton. I can see that it would apply more aptly to Mail columnist Richard Littlejohn
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
He should be ok there - Uxbridge has been trending Tory since the 1950s.
Not sure being in the middle of an election campaign whilst no deal is happening would do the Tories any good .
If there’s a lot of problems they’d get some blowback . It could be like a suicide mission !
If Bozo makes the election all about leaving on time then that makes more sense .
What about what Boris is currently doing, which I have to say is good electioneering, albeit it irresponsible if carried out. Massive spending on everything and massive tax cuts.
Attractive but impossible without wrecking the economy.
We have regularly been regaled on here with warnings that a Corbyn Government would turn us into Venezuala. Could it be Boris will actually get us there without the need for electing Socialists?
You do not seem to get it. Labour spending = we cannot afford it. Tory spending = the country needs it. Trump's budget deficit now coming close to $1tn a year. You do not hear even a squeak.
Or what about 'Boris spending splurge: profligate electioneering. 55Bn (+) on a single railway line: taking the right, sober decisions for Britain's future.'
So is Boris now saying he will fund HS3 but not the HS2 link back to London?
Not that I'm aware of. I merely suggest that profligacy or lack of it being viewed through a political lense is not the exclusive preserve of Tory supporters.
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
“he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner”: I’m not convinced. I think every time his daft face appears on telly another former Con voter jumps ship. He is a repellent.
So is Corbyn. Doesn't stop him being a highly effective campaigner.
Jeremy Thorpe, another excellent campaigner, had to keep running back to his constituency in 1966 and ended holding it after a recount.
Thorpe was the precedent I was thinking of. It may not have been decisive in the Liberal reverses that year but I imagine it was distinctly unhelpful.
The Liberals gained seats in 1966 - ending up with 12 compared with 9 in 1964.
It was bit early in the morning when I posted, so yes, an error. Apologies. Grimond, an effective campaigner, led to Liberals to gains in 1966, while Thorpe, then a less well-known but charismatic campaigner, although with deep, and later widely known flaws, led them to losses in 1970
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
He should be ok there - Uxbridge has been trending Tory since the 1950s.
Now Boris probably got a slight boost in 2015 as he was a popular candidate with name recognition but that majority was halved in 2017.
I suspect retaining the seat will be harder than Boris thinks it will be...
The former Uxbridge seat was a Labour marginal until 1959 when it went Tory in Macmillan's 'You've never had it so good' landslide. Since then Labour has only won the seat once - narrowly - in 1966. The Tories even held on here in 1997 - and boundary changes, which have taken in parts of Ruislip, now make it a safer Tory seat.
Is there a realistic chance that PM BJ could stand in a different constituency at the next GE? In which case, where? On paper, his result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip last time was not very convincing, and Baxter has it down as a very narrow Con Hold, with Labour only requiring a further 1.9 point swing to take it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17: Con (BJ) 23,716 Lab 18,682 LD 1,835 UKIP 1,577 Grn 884
Personally I would doubt it. The optics would be terrible. 'Look! He's so fearful of a bad result he daren't even take his own seat for granted.' I'll think he would have to stand, lose and fight a by-election, a la Balfour, under those circumstances.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
He should be ok there - Uxbridge has been trending Tory since the 1950s.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
Manchester already has combined NHS and social care through the Greater Manchester Health and Social Care Partnership. Did he really not get briefed about it before talking about Social Care in Manchester...
I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
Me too.
Perhaps Welsh people are too innately gloomy to react well to the Great Man.
It could be because of the general perception as so volubly told by BJ that come hell or high water we will be OUT by 31st Oct. It matters a lot with farmers.
Mr. Borough, Boris is just writing cheque after cheque.
Who's going to pay? Will taxes rise, spending fall elsewhere, or borrowing increase (when we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments)?
And what's his Irish border solution?
A genuine compromise, such as a prolonged backstop to cover a period of trade agreement negotiation, would be one thing. All he's saying is "We don't want this" without offering any alternative whatsoever. And then pretending it's the EU's fault.
It isn't. It's his. And obviously his. The man's a fool.
I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
Me too.
Perhaps Welsh people are too innately gloomy to react well to the Great Man.
It could be because of the general perception as so volubly told by BJ that come hell or high water we will be OUT by 31st Oct. It matters a lot with farmers.
Has anyone done a poll, or derived figures from one, as to the relative strength of Leave and Remain among those who have recently come to live in Wales and those who have lived there for generations? Which way, for example, did the doomed community of Fairbourne vote?
I wouldn't bet on it. They will always blame somebody else, and there will be plenty of English people willing to believe them, no doubt egged on by our wonderful free press.
You can look to any right-wing playbook for the list of potential enemies and traitors to blame. The 1930s are a good place to start.
Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.
Now 23.
#BorisBounce
Well if it’s been shockingly bad for a while to create the bad bi election result, and he’s only been leader with chance to turn it around for a week, you can hardly pour much blame over him can you?
Mr. Borough, Boris is just writing cheque after cheque.
Who's going to pay? Will taxes rise, spending fall elsewhere, or borrowing increase (when we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments)?
And what's his Irish border solution?
A genuine compromise, such as a prolonged backstop to cover a period of trade agreement negotiation, would be one thing. All he's saying is "We don't want this" without offering any alternative whatsoever. And then pretending it's the EU's fault.
It isn't. It's his. And obviously his. The man's a fool.
I guess Javid will just have to find the money somehow.
Borrowing for investment makes sense now as government can borrow at very low rates.
The big problem is how Brexit and next recession (which is coming anyway) hits all his plans.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
Manchester already has combined NHS and social care through the Greater Manchester Health and Social Care Partnership. Did he really not get briefed about it before talking about Social Care in Manchester...
Combining NHS and social care was the plan of an ex- Health Minister, now mayor of Greater Manchester.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
I don't know what you're comparing it to. I thought it was very good.
If you look at the recent EU election result for Brecon and Radnor and the overall trend for higher turnout amongst Remainers then Bozo becoming PM has two probable effects.
Although you’d expect a bounce and a shift from BP to the Tories , you’re also likely to see this help Remainer turnout because of his no deal stance .
If you add together the EU election results into Brexit plus no deal .
You get BP 30.7+ Tories 7.9+ UKIP 2.7 = 41.3
The second vote , Remain
Lib Dems 23.4 + PC 20.4+ Greens 6.9+Ch UK 1.8= 52.5
Confused but anti no deal Labour 6.1
When one looks at these figures , and even if you put in the proviso that this was an EU election with a degree of protest vote , if you add recent polling in Wales on Remain v Leave then it’s likely the seat has now moved into the Remain category.
And given everything is now seen through the lens of Brexit the Lib Dems should have a very good chance of taking this .
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Mr. Borough, Boris is just writing cheque after cheque.
Who's going to pay? Will taxes rise, spending fall elsewhere, or borrowing increase (when we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments)?
And what's his Irish border solution?
A genuine compromise, such as a prolonged backstop to cover a period of trade agreement negotiation, would be one thing. All he's saying is "We don't want this" without offering any alternative whatsoever. And then pretending it's the EU's fault.
It isn't. It's his. And obviously his. The man's a fool.
I want Boris to be a success. We do need more optimism and more self confidence. We also need to be willing to accept difficulties, rather than accept the unacceptable.
But at a certain point, optimism becomes delusion.
Boris reminds me of Billy McFarland, who created the ill-fated Fyre Festival. When people raised issues or difficulties that needed to be dealt with, they were nay-sayers, and were fired.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
There is a wonderful video of the Steve Jobs NeXT launch, where he's demonstrating how easy it was to develop apps for his new system. And he pauses, awaiting applause, and nothing comes.
And he turns to the audience and repeats the line, more slowly, assuming the problem is at their end, rather than his.
It was utterly cringeworthy. And it reminded me of Boris this time around.
The pertinent question is the impact of such tactics on the election outcome itself.
This means that the election needs to be forced before 31st Oct, which means as soon as the MPs are back on 3 or 4th September, Grieve and co and Labour must no confidence.
They have no choice now, as it seems the Johnson tactic is to just leave, even if it is the middle of a GE.
In itself that would not be sufficient - because having lost a VNOC the 14 day clock begins to tick. Unless an alternative is installed, Boris would remain PM throughout that period and during the ensuing election campaign. He would also have control over the election date - which he could set as - say - 31st October! To avoid this - and No Deal - a new PM will need to be installed after a successful VNOC, and almost certainly that would mean putting Corbyn in No 10. He would then request an Extension from the EU - and seek a Dissolution.
Johnson says spending all this money is good idea because the things he is proposing are popular and widely believed to be needed.
I can see Labour using this argument for all their spending too.
He is right. The only problem is that it is his Party who have consistently argued, over 9 years in government, that they were utterly irresponsible and unaffordable. Will he get away with it? Maybe.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Is there? Boris is a salesman who doesn't do detail and listens to people who tell him what he wants to here or excites him.
Looking at the comments on here I'm reminded of the Monorail episode of the Simpsons..
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Indeed. Electric cars and electric planes are the future and the solution to our environmental worries, not trying to stop people from travelling or having holidays. Being on the forefront of this technology is what we should be aiming for too.
Once we have electric planes in the sky then right-on luvvies can take as many flights as they want to protest whatever they want without feeling guilty. Oh wait, they already do, nevermind.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
There is a wonderful video of the Steve Jobs NeXT launch, where he's demonstrating how easy it was to develop apps for his new system. And he pauses, awaiting applause, and nothing comes.
And he turns to the audience and repeats the line, more slowly, assuming the problem is at their end, rather than his.
It was utterly cringeworthy. And it reminded me of Boris this time around.
You don't ask people to applaud. If you need that you have a warm-up person (before the cameras roll) telling you what to do and (if organised and really desperate) prompts out of sight...
Boris was both desperate and dis-organised in his first key speech..
Johnson says spending all this money is good idea because the things he is proposing are popular and widely believed to be needed.
I can see Labour using this argument for all their spending too.
He is right. The only problem is that it is his Party who have consistently argued, over 9 years in government, that they were utterly irresponsible and unaffordable. Will he get away with it? Maybe.
It was unaffordable when the deficit was 10% of GDP.
It is because of the actions taken over the last 9 years that we can start to think about affording things now.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Is there? Boris is a salesman who doesn't do detail and listens to people who tell him what he wants to here or excites him.
Looking at the comments on here I'm reminded of the Monorail episode of the Simpsons..
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Indeed. Electric cars and electric planes are the future and the solution to our environmental worries, not trying to stop people from travelling or having holidays. Being on the forefront of this technology is what we should be aiming for too.
Once we have electric planes in the sky then right-on luvvies can take as many flights as they want to protest whatever they want without feeling guilty. Oh wait, they already do, nevermind.
Just as a matter of interest, what's the maximum energy density of (say) the very best lithium-ion battery, and how does that compare to Jet-A?
And how has that density changed - with all the incredible investment that's happened in smartphones and the like - in the last two decades?
Cons holding Brecon - backable at 10 just before Johnson.
Now 23.
#BorisBounce
I am surprised. I see no reason why Tory prospect should get worse.
It does seem strange , surely Bozo would give them a bounce there. Not enough to win the seat but get much closer .
You would expect a shift from the BP back to the Tories . It would be great to see what the main messages are from the parties there.
Given there’s so much farming there I would have thought no deal would have been a central issue .
"Given there’s so much farming there I would have thought no deal would have been a central issue ". I think you have hit the nail on the head. Farmers are beginning to realise that a No Deal Brexit may not be such a great idea. Just like US farmers are learning to their cost re: Trump.
Farmers have understood the consequences for them of No Deal for quite some time.
Brecon is not likely to be much of a bellweather for what's going on in the country generally. TBP don't seem be making much of an effort there so we may see evidence of the HYUFD thesis coming into play, and the Tories recovering some of their former voters. They should finish second easily enough, but finishing well behind the LDs.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Indeed. Electric cars and electric planes are the future and the solution to our environmental worries, not trying to stop people from travelling or having holidays. Being on the forefront of this technology is what we should be aiming for too.
Once we have electric planes in the sky then right-on luvvies can take as many flights as they want to protest whatever they want without feeling guilty. Oh wait, they already do, nevermind.
Electric cars work because for a lot of time they aren't moving so there is plenty of time to charge them.
Planes on the other hand fly as much as possible. Everything is designed around maximising flight time and minimising turn around time (it's why Ryan air work on minimising luggage as that delays boarding and unboarding). The idea that planes will be electric in the near future is pie in the sky for various reasons...
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Is there? Boris is a salesman who doesn't do detail and listens to people who tell him what he wants to here or excites him.
Looking at the comments on here I'm reminded of the Monorail episode of the Simpsons..
Johnson says spending all this money is good idea because the things he is proposing are popular and widely believed to be needed.
I can see Labour using this argument for all their spending too.
He is right. The only problem is that it is his Party who have consistently argued, over 9 years in government, that they were utterly irresponsible and unaffordable. Will he get away with it? Maybe.
It was unaffordable when the deficit was 10% of GDP.
It is because of the actions taken over the last 9 years that we can start to think about affording things now.
What happens when the deficit starts to rise again? Is that good or bad? Either better rail links across the North, a solution to social care and 20 000 new police are good ideas or not.
The pertinent question is the impact of such tactics on the election outcome itself.
This means that the election needs to be forced before 31st Oct, which means as soon as the MPs are back on 3 or 4th September, Grieve and co and Labour must no confidence.
They have no choice now, as it seems the Johnson tactic is to just leave, even if it is the middle of a GE.
In itself that would not be sufficient - because having lost a VNOC the 14 day clock begins to tick. Unless an alternative is installed, Boris would remain PM throughout that period and during the ensuing election campaign. He would also have control over the election date - which he could set as - say - 31st October! To avoid this - and No Deal - a new PM will need to be installed after a successful VNOC, and almost certainly that would mean putting Corbyn in No 10. He would then request an Extension from the EU - and seek a Dissolution.
Surely it can't be right that Johnson would remain prime minister throughout the 14-day period?
The way for an election to be avoided is the passage of a motion saying "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" within 14 days of the VONC. Surely that means that the confidence motion has to follow the appointment of an alternative prime minister and the formation of an alternative government? And if the motion of confidence failed, the alternative prime minister - not Johnson - would advice the Queen on the date of the election.
What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.
It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.
It will of course make it much more difficult to attack Labour's spending policies.
On topic, July 1914 was quite eventful on three fronts: a huge financial crash, looming civil war in Ireland and some confused goings-on in the Balkans.
What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.
It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.
It will of course make it much more difficult to attack Labour's spending policies.
The pertinent question is the impact of such tactics on the election outcome itself.
This means that the election needs to be forced before 31st Oct, which means as soon as the MPs are back on 3 or 4th September, Grieve and co and Labour must no confidence.
They have no choice now, as it seems the Johnson tactic is to just leave, even if it is the middle of a GE.
In itself that would not be sufficient - because having lost a VNOC the 14 day clock begins to tick. Unless an alternative is installed, Boris would remain PM throughout that period and during the ensuing election campaign. He would also have control over the election date - which he could set as - say - 31st October! To avoid this - and No Deal - a new PM will need to be installed after a successful VNOC, and almost certainly that would mean putting Corbyn in No 10. He would then request an Extension from the EU - and seek a Dissolution.
Surely it can't be right that Johnson would remain prime minister throughout the 14-day period?
The way for an election to be avoided is the passage of a motion saying "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" within 14 days of the VONC. Surely that means that the subsequent motion has to follow the appointment of an alternative prime minister and the formation of an alternative government? And if the motion of confidence failed, the alternative prime minister - not Johnson - would advice the Queen on the date of the election.
He would remain PM until an alternative is installed.
What is also clear is that a campaign by Boris will be nothing like any Tory campaign since Mrs T. None of that dismal austerity stuff, no focus on the unaffordable nature of Labour’s policies. Instead a bargain basement of ideas about our priorities and what kind of country we want to be.
It’s smart politics. People are bored of austerity. Fiscal conservatives like me will sigh but persuade themselves that Labour would be even worse.
It will of course make it much more difficult to attack Labour's spending policies.
It does look as if the Tax Bombshell posters will be staying in the cupboard this next GE.
The pertinent question is the impact of such tactics on the election outcome itself.
This means that the election needs to be forced before 31st Oct, which means as soon as the MPs are back on 3 or 4th September, Grieve and co and Labour must no confidence.
They have no choice now, as it seems the Johnson tactic is to just leave, even if it is the middle of a GE.
In itself that would not be sufficient - because having lost a VNOC the 14 day clock begins to tick. Unless an alternative is installed, Boris would remain PM throughout that period and during the ensuing election campaign. He would also have control over the election date - which he could set as - say - 31st October! To avoid this - and No Deal - a new PM will need to be installed after a successful VNOC, and almost certainly that would mean putting Corbyn in No 10. He would then request an Extension from the EU - and seek a Dissolution.
Surely it can't be right that Johnson would remain prime minister throughout the 14-day period?
The way for an election to be avoided is the passage of a motion saying "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" within 14 days of the VONC. Surely that means that the subsequent motion has to follow the appointment of an alternative prime minister and the formation of an alternative government? And if the motion of confidence failed, the alternative prime minister - not Johnson - would advice the Queen on the date of the election.
He would remain PM until an alternative is installed.
You think that Boris Johnson (and presumably the rest of the government) would remain in office, but that the confidence motion would refer a different government? I'm sorry, but that makes no sense at all.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Indeed. Electric cars and electric planes are the future and the solution to our environmental worries, not trying to stop people from travelling or having holidays. Being on the forefront of this technology is what we should be aiming for too.
Once we have electric planes in the sky then right-on luvvies can take as many flights as they want to protest whatever they want without feeling guilty. Oh wait, they already do, nevermind.
Electric cars work because for a lot of time they aren't moving so there is plenty of time to charge them.
Planes on the other hand fly as much as possible. Everything is designed around maximising flight time and minimising turn around time (it's why Ryan air work on minimising luggage as that delays boarding and unboarding). The idea that planes will be electric in the near future is pie in the sky for various reasons...
Could they not just change the batteries over when they land?
If you look at the recent EU election result for Brecon and Radnor and the overall trend for higher turnout amongst Remainers then Bozo becoming PM has two probable effects.
Although you’d expect a bounce and a shift from BP to the Tories , you’re also likely to see this help Remainer turnout because of his no deal stance .
If you add together the EU election results into Brexit plus no deal .
You get BP 30.7+ Tories 7.9+ UKIP 2.7 = 41.3
The second vote , Remain
Lib Dems 23.4 + PC 20.4+ Greens 6.9+Ch UK 1.8= 52.5
Confused but anti no deal Labour 6.1
When one looks at these figures , and even if you put in the proviso that this was an EU election with a degree of protest vote , if you add recent polling in Wales on Remain v Leave then it’s likely the seat has now moved into the Remain category.
And given everything is now seen through the lens of Brexit the Lib Dems should have a very good chance of taking this .
'A very good chance of taking this.....'
You do understatement very well! They're 25/1 on with Betfair.
Would you like to give us your views on Manchester City's chances of scraping into the top five next season?
On topic, July 1914 was quite eventful on three fronts: a huge financial crash, looming civil war in Ireland and some confused goings-on in the Balkans.
The civil war which appeared to be 'looming'...... didn't actually occur, or at least in the form expected ...... would have been initiated by the Right. I'm thinking of the Ulster Volunteers and the Curragh Mutiny.
We are in uncharted FTPA territory here, but following a successful VNOC, I would expect discussions to take place between the Palace , the Cabinet Secretary and party leaders so as to form a judgement as to who is most likely to command a majority in the new circumstances. Some might argue that in the aftermath of a VNOC , Corbyn as Opposition Leader would be called to the Palace to 'try' to form a Government that would win an Affirmative vote. I am not sure that would occur without soundings having already taken place.
I think he's doing great. Glad he prompted them to applaud, Theresa bless her would have just stumbled on getting croakier and croakier and looking miserable when applause did not materialise.
I turned him off when he got to electric planes.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
It does seem that there is already advanced engineering for electric planes and innovation in this area by the UK could result in huge economic benefits
Comments
Perhaps Welsh people are too innately gloomy to react well to the Great Man.
Just a guess.
We're thieves.
I think you have hit the nail on the head. Farmers are beginning to realise that a No Deal Brexit may not be such a great idea. Just like US farmers are learning to their cost re: Trump.
Greater Los Angeles has a population of perhaps 18 million. The City of Los Angeles, which is what you're referring to, is only 3.3 million of the 18 million. I don't think any of my friends live in the City of Los Angeles.
Believing that we hold all the cards remains as delusional as ever.
Incompetent and failed bullying, especially when it wouldn’t produce a favourable outcome even if we’d magically got our desire, is really bloody stupid.
I assume it’s your need to believe it’s somehow possible that clouds your sight on this; the alternative would be quite insulting.
https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1155029309549109249
No point in false modesty.
Leave 52
Remain 48
Mirroring the whole UK.
2010 majority (pre Boris) 11216
2015 10695
2017 5034
Now Boris probably got a slight boost in 2015 as he was a popular candidate with name recognition but that majority was halved in 2017.
I suspect retaining the seat will be harder than Boris thinks it will be...
Thanks for the correction.
Oh dear. Not good.
https://twitter.com/historylvrsclub/status/1155060690694082560
Who's going to pay? Will taxes rise, spending fall elsewhere, or borrowing increase (when we already pay £50bn plus a year in interest payments)?
And what's his Irish border solution?
A genuine compromise, such as a prolonged backstop to cover a period of trade agreement negotiation, would be one thing. All he's saying is "We don't want this" without offering any alternative whatsoever. And then pretending it's the EU's fault.
It isn't. It's his. And obviously his. The man's a fool.
He needs to be very careful with that one, unless the public have changed their minds in last twenty years.
Which way, for example, did the doomed community of Fairbourne vote?
Yes, I realise that The Valleys voted to Leave.
Well if it’s been shockingly bad for a while to create the bad bi election result, and he’s only been leader with chance to turn it around for a week, you can hardly pour much blame over him can you?
Borrowing for investment makes sense now as government can borrow at very low rates.
The big problem is how Brexit and next recession (which is coming anyway) hits all his plans.
Not a great speech is it, (or perhaps it's the delivery?).
Although you’d expect a bounce and a shift from BP to the Tories , you’re also likely to see this help Remainer turnout because of his no deal stance .
If you add together the EU election results into Brexit plus no deal .
You get BP 30.7+ Tories 7.9+ UKIP 2.7 = 41.3
The second vote , Remain
Lib Dems 23.4 + PC 20.4+ Greens 6.9+Ch UK 1.8= 52.5
Confused but anti no deal Labour 6.1
When one looks at these figures , and even if you put in the proviso that this was an EU election with a degree of protest vote , if you add recent polling in Wales on Remain v Leave then it’s likely the seat has now moved into the Remain category.
And given everything is now seen through the lens of Brexit the Lib Dems should have a very good chance of taking this .
But at a certain point, optimism becomes delusion.
Boris reminds me of Billy McFarland, who created the ill-fated Fyre Festival. When people raised issues or difficulties that needed to be dealt with, they were nay-sayers, and were fired.
I can see Labour using this argument for all their spending too.
And he turns to the audience and repeats the line, more slowly, assuming the problem is at their end, rather than his.
It was utterly cringeworthy. And it reminded me of Boris this time around.
Will he get away with it? Maybe.
Looking at the comments on here I'm reminded of the Monorail episode of the Simpsons..
Once we have electric planes in the sky then right-on luvvies can take as many flights as they want to protest whatever they want without feeling guilty. Oh wait, they already do, nevermind.
Boris was both desperate and dis-organised in his first key speech..
It is because of the actions taken over the last 9 years that we can start to think about affording things now.
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/insights/2018/paul-stein-talks-about-e-fan-x.aspx
But speaking from personal experience, the Welsh person that I know well IS a touch deadpan but I never fear for my wallet when we meet.
And how has that density changed - with all the incredible investment that's happened in smartphones and the like - in the last two decades?
Brecon is not likely to be much of a bellweather for what's going on in the country generally. TBP don't seem be making much of an effort there so we may see evidence of the HYUFD thesis coming into play, and the Tories recovering some of their former voters. They should finish second easily enough, but finishing well behind the LDs.
I wouldn't read too much into it.
Planes on the other hand fly as much as possible. Everything is designed around maximising flight time and minimising turn around time (it's why Ryan air work on minimising luggage as that delays boarding and unboarding). The idea that planes will be electric in the near future is pie in the sky for various reasons...
Either better rail links across the North, a solution to social care and 20 000 new police are good ideas or not.
The way for an election to be avoided is the passage of a motion saying "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" within 14 days of the VONC. Surely that means that the confidence motion has to follow the appointment of an alternative prime minister and the formation of an alternative government? And if the motion of confidence failed, the alternative prime minister - not Johnson - would advice the Queen on the date of the election.
Suspect Mercedes are sandbagging.
Ultra-tight midfield.
But from the look of the market you could probably get matched at higher.
You do understatement very well! They're 25/1 on with Betfair.
Would you like to give us your views on Manchester City's chances of scraping into the top five next season?
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1154761529516003328