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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lazy Summers but politics can go on
In An Italian Education, Tim Parks describes the wonderfully languorous routine of an Italian summer: the shutting down of all but essential services in hot, humid cities leaving them to tourists, the departure for the coast, the gathering of the extended family, the early mornings to enjoy an espresso outside when the day is cool, the encampment at the same spot on the beach amongst the ombrelloni, neatly and beautifully laid out, la bella figura being quite as important when little is worn as at every other time, lunch followed by siesta, the late afternoon passeggiata before evening entertainment. Day in, day out, the rythym is much the same, punctuated by religious festivals: Sant’ Andrea in Amalfi in late June, for instance, or Ferragosto everywhere. Then the gentle return home in September, with weekend visits to the coast for those lucky enough to live nearby. It is a time to breathe, relax, close off the pressing problems of life, which can – for now – wait.
Comments
And why has it taken me this long to notice JRM has fullstop as one word?
We successfully resisted an immediate change to “period” but compromised on a single word for a transition period
See what I done there?
Italians, Poles, Russians, Hungarians, Germans, Kuwaitis, Iraqis, Thais, French, Japanese, Georgians, Greeks, Dutch, Crimeans, Ukrainians, Ossetians, Americans and English; these are all just different words for the same thing: people.
2019 3/1
2020 3/1
2021 6/1
2022 5/1
2023 or later 5/1
JRM’s foolery illustrates the career of a man in politics who hasn’t troubled himself with wanting to achieve very much to improve his fellow citizens’ lives, and to whom symbols are more important than substance. No surprise he has been a leading Brexiter. Stories like his antics won’t make much difference now, but sow seeds as to how the government may come to be seen as and when people turn decisively against it.
The single/double space obsession will be familiar to anyone who edits Wikipedia. Despite WP’s policies being clear that it makes no difference, with its algorithms displaying all articles on the screen with single space breaks between sentences regardless of whether they have been typed single or double spaced, there are still editors who spent their time editing articles purely to remove the extra spaces others have put between sentences. Which is weird.
Tim Parks’s light but surprisingly profound insights into Italian life are essential reading for understanding how Italy isn’t the relaxed carefree place of contented living that it can sometimes very superficially appear.
But he does know that he has been so vehement in his “do-or-die” promise that to back away now could be fatal. All he can do is double down on the bet. Where Theresa May’s homily would be “don’t throw good money after bad”, Johnson would prefer “in for a penny, in for a pound” — or in Macbeth’s words: I am in blood/ Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more/ Returning were as tedious as go o’er. Read the play. These are not the words of a truly confident leader; they betray a shaft of lonely despair.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/watch-out-for-the-loose-cannon-of-no-10-q375jrmvz
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49133625
The idea that this wasn't forecast is a myth. Please stop repeating it.
Shadsy has a price up that he will stand in a different seat: 10/1. Tempting?
Result GE17:
Con (BJ) 23,716
Lab 18,682
LD 1,835
UKIP 1,577
Grn 884
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_lond.html
Throughout 2015 and early 2016 until Cameron called the referendum Remain led in almost every single poll. In 2015 stripping out don't knows Remain had more double digit leads than Leave had leads even by 1%
It wasn't what was forecast in 2015, as opposed to summer 2016.
(the answer is it was exactly 50/50)
Like the 2017 General Election. The result is much less shocking by comparing to final polls but the appropriate comparison IMO is not to final polls but to the polls befors the election was called. Then it is truly shocking.
A more pertinent problem might be if he's so nervous of his constituency he has to spend a lot of time in it. That would certainly hurt the Tories because with all his faults he is undoubtedly a brilliant campaigner and nobody could stand in for him.
Edit/ for Sicily look at the Norman Lewis book.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49134445
Boris under serious pressure of losing his job and reputation would be something else. Beneath the amiable character he projects, I don’t think he’s a good person, at all.
Jeremy Thorpe, another excellent campaigner, had to keep running back to his constituency in 1966 and ended holding it after a recount.
(“Decent” is here used to describe quantity, not quality or morality.)
But the alternative is even more worrying for Ruthie’s team: none of her MPs was even considered for the job. She really is in the naughty corner.
Boris Johnson backs high-speed Leeds to Manchester rail route
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49132477
I notice silence still on HS2.
Any more Labour leakage in London and Corbyn will be looking over his shoulder as well.
Thanks to Cyclefree for the evocative introduction and the tempting-looking book link. Is that you on the photo?
In other news it clearly won't be a hard brexit:
https://twitter.com/MimiVonPeach/status/1154723862673874944?s=19
There's also a qualifying without the big 6 market (Ladbrokes).
'It provoketh the desire, but it taketh away the performance.'
As for the EU, let's see what it is saying in 2 months time. Simon Coveney let the cat out of the bag last weekend when he admitted that if Britain doesn't do as its told, the EU will insist either Ireland imposes border checks or Ireland will have to leave the single market. I hope Boris plays hardball and makes clear he is willing to see the Irish economy crumble if the EU doesn't come back to the discussion table. In the real world the buyer generally has more power than the seller and in our relationship with the EU, we are the buyers.
https://www.twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1154860196616966144
....................................................
I also note young Malcy that your avatar and mine are related. Fueling speculation that I have a love child in Ayrshire among the turnip nobility of the area !! ....
I was rather hoping some other world events might be discussed, even if only on a look-back basis. Time does give us a fresh perspective. No. Not me. The beach looks lovely though.
Will Cummings light a candle?
Quote From Man Stabbed
"What are you gonna do, stab me?"
There are many here who say to overturn a democratic decision through second vote before the first is implemented is undemocratic. The Ancient Athenians, who invented our democratic tradition, thought otherwise as the the Mytilenaean Debate shows. Unfortunately (and perhaps ironically given the current PM) classical precedents are not exactly persuasive these days. Better to leave briefly and let those who led us to this catastrophe be utterly discredited before heading back or even joining EFTA.
On your second point, in the real world, the bigger players who set the rules have the power. Leavers don't accept that because they don't yet accept the UK will be a "Vassal State".
If MPs want a second referendum, that's a legitimate position to hold. What isn't legitimate is this idiocy voting to endorse the decision to leave, then voting repeatedly against the deal, then complaining we're leaving with no deal.
No shit, Sherlock. That's precisely what the majority of MPs have voted for. You can't vote to leave with no deal and then complain we're leaving with no deal.
If someone suggested that to me I would simply reply that they should know.
I take clothes seriously. I compliment people if they are well-dressed and like receiving such compliments in my turn. It is a small pleasure in life. Inflicting ugliness on others in public - an ill-kempt appearance, bad breath, BO, uncared-for front gardens, horrible buildings - well, it’s a form of rudeness. Fare bella figura is one of the nice things about Italy (though it is about behaviour as well as appearance).
JRM clearly cares about his appearance and is trying to appear like something - his idea of a gentleman, I imagine - but he gets it wrong. If he is so pompous as to tell others how to behave (and most of his rules are ridiculous) then he should not be surprised if people respond to him in kind.
But lighten up - my comment was in the spirit of gentle mockery which most of yesterday’s thread was.
And today’s header was meant to be a lighter summer-based reflection for the weekend. We don’t have to take everything seriously all the time.
Anyway, despite the rain, I have to do some gardening. Where is the sun when you need it, eh?
Also Brexiteers: if the Irish don't do exactly what we want we will destroy them.
As for Corbyn, we remember his leadership campaigns and the 2017 GE but forget his dismal failure in the referendum and every other election. You can talk about his love of a rally, but as we saw this week, that's not necessarily the same thing as "good campaigning". The key to whether Labour can pull off a similar feat in a potential GE19 as to 17, is not Corbyn's alleged campaigning skills, but whether the underlying politics are the same. If they're not, and he's now about as welcome outside his core supporters as a cup of cold sick, then the stuff hailed as "good campaigning" last time will be used as an example of his delusions and failure as a campaigner rather than an asset.
Well, do ya?
The obvious question is what was preventing this before? Certainly not the EU.