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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,824

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)
    Which is not an answer.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)
    Um, must have missed something? If it was “just a trade organisation” we wouldn’t be leaving!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    alex. said:

    So can anyone clarify the following:

    There are lots of people who are saying that even to make a bare bones no deal Brexit even remotely viable the Government will have to pass several key pieces of legislation. Is this true, because how can the Government with any seriousness argue that they are “planning” for no deal, if they are also refusing to bring any legislation before the House? And what are the consequences if they don’t?

    Might they be actually planning to use the Blair era Emergency Powers Act?


    Have a look at the link in the article from the Institute of Government which explains the legislation needed.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)
    Most countries don't have a border as sensitive as the Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland border. I'd rather be in the EU than have the IRA back
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366

    Because we should support the spirit of the GFA and the status quo that followed as it has done great things for Northern Ireland. Trashing that consensus for no gain is pointless.
    No one wants to end cross-border cooperation. Saying customs checks will “trash” the GFA doesn’t help with the perception issue.
  • alex. said:

    Um, must have missed something? If it was “just a trade organisation” we wouldn’t be leaving!
    Okay fair point.

    And the undemocratic state apparatus of the EU does have very good form on not allowing anyone to leave.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Cyclefree said:


    Have a look at the link in the article from the Institute of Government which explains the legislation needed.
    So how is the Govt squaring this with its official position? Gove is in charge of no deal planning - surely he knows it’s boll*x?

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Okay fair point.

    And the undemocratic state apparatus of the EU does have very good form on not allowing anyone to leave.
    We’re allowed to leave. It’s just disadvantageous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293

    Okay fair point.

    And the undemocratic state apparatus of the EU does have very good form on not allowing anyone to leave.
    They are fine on letting us leave, just want to write the post Brexit deal in their favour.

    Who is surprised?
  • We’re allowed to leave. It’s just disadvantageous.
    Are you sure we're allowed to leave? It's never been done before despite various democratic exercises.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293
    alex. said:

    So how is the Govt squaring this with its official position? Gove is in charge of no deal planning - surely he knows it’s boll*x?

    We have no need of experts...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,323

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)
    It's not difficult at all: in fact, it's relatively straightforward. Banks recommended Richard North's "Flexit". @Richard_Tyndall of this parish recommended EFTA/EEA membership, possibly as an intermediate stage. Even "no deal" is viable provided its planned for and coped with in advance. What isn't going to work is acting hard, doing no preparation, and waltzing into it thinking it'll be easy. That's not government, it's rich twats fucking around.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,409

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)
    I don't hate myself. I don't even hate Brexiteers. I just think they're trying to do something stupid, and I would like to stop them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293

    Are you sure we're allowed to leave? It's never been done before despite various democratic exercises.
    Greenland left, as did Algeria in 1962.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577

    I don't hate myself. I don't even hate Brexiteers. I just think they're trying to do something stupid, and I would like to stop them.
    Time for that was putting in the hard yards with the voters in the Referendum campaign....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,323

    I only popped back to enjoy the Borishambles. In the interim I have gone all gaelic just to confuse the Little Englanders.

    How bheri cunning of you. Or not. :)

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,956
    Mark Francois on Newsnight says ERG will vote down WDA even without the backstop. The man is quite infuriating and thick.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    dixiedean said:

    Mark Francois on Newsnight says ERG will vote down WDA even without the backstop. The man is quite infuriating and thick.

    :D Jesus
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,409
    viewcode said:

    It's not difficult at all: in fact, it's relatively straightforward. Banks recommended Richard North's "Flexit". @Richard_Tyndall of this parish recommended EFTA/EEA membership, possibly as an intermediate stage. Even "no deal" is viable provided its planned for and coped with in advance. What isn't going to work is acting hard, doing no preparation, and waltzing into it thinking it'll be easy. That's not government, it's rich twats fucking around.
    Unfortunately "rich twats fucking around" is what Brexit has always been about. Anyone who can't see that hasn't been paying attention.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    kinabalu said:

    Exactly my point. Your problem with him is his (in your view) foolish and dangerous political views. But your article says the problem is that he is incompetent.

    Let me pose it this way then -

    Which would you prefer - a highly effective hard left LOTO or a bumbling ineffectual moderate?

    Gun to head.
    My problem with Corbyn was well-established long before he became leader and has little to do with his policies. It has to do with his character, his association with anti-semites and men of violence, his default instincts which seem to be to be illiberal and not democratic and the particular strand of the hard left he comes from and has spent all his political life in.

    A Left leader who had strongly redistributive policies (a wealth tax, say, or high taxes to pay for public spending) but who does not come from the SWP strand that Corbyn seems to and who was effective in holding a government to account would be much better than an ineffectual moderate. So I voted for Neil Kinnock, who came from the Left. I would have voted for John Smith.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,834

    We're only leaving a trade organisation - it shouldn't be that difficult - It is rather eye-opening to see the amount of self hating brits there are though (judging by this website)

    If it's only a trade organization, rather than a set of economies so deeply integrated as to require a major pooling of political and financial sovereignty, why are we needing to leave it to regain our sense of nationhood?

    Answers on a postcard to Brexit Towers.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited July 2019
    viewcode said:

    It's not difficult at all: in fact, it's relatively straightforward. Banks recommended Richard North's "Flexit". @Richard_Tyndall of this parish recommended EFTA/EEA membership, possibly as an intermediate stage. Even "no deal" is viable provided its planned for and coped with in advance. What isn't going to work is acting hard, doing no preparation, and waltzing into it thinking it'll be easy. That's not government, it's rich twats fucking around.
    Yep, it’s quite difficult to leave if there isn’t a majority in Parliament to agree a way to do it. That’s not the EU’s problem it’s the UK’s. If Johnson is serious about leaving he has to put his position on the line through a GE in search of a majority for some solution.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366
    Foxy said:

    Greenland left, as did Algeria in 1962.
    via independence. A bit different than a full member state leaving.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    We clearly have different opinions on this. I think there will be no changes to the WA (PD is possible, but unlikely).

    We may have the makings of a wager. Any thoughts?

    I missed this earlier, just saw your comment about be not replying. I'm interested, what are you thinking?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    dixiedean said:

    Mark Francois on Newsnight says ERG will vote down WDA even without the backstop. The man is quite infuriating and thick.

    So No Deal or General Election. But No Deal effectively also means no negotiation towards an FTA.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,956
    edited July 2019

    :D Jesus
    Even Kirsty Wark losing patience trying to have a rational conversation. Says we should just go for a FTA.
    Francois not Kirsty obvs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Mark Francois on Newsnight says ERG will vote down WDA even without the backstop. The man is quite infuriating and thick.

    If Boris can negotiate a backstopless WDA then it should be made a confidence vote. Anyone, whether Grieve or Francois who fails to back that should be expelled from the party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    alex. said:

    So how is the Govt squaring this with its official position? Gove is in charge of no deal planning - surely he knows it’s boll*x?

    God knows.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,866

    :D Jesus
    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1154508020908343297?s=21
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,409

    Time for that was putting in the hard yards with the voters in the Referendum campaign....
    I delivered a few leaflets.
    They haven't got a mandate for no deal so I have no qualms about trying to prevent that. They could have reached out to Remainers and delivered a compromise, but that was not their approach. My attitude has been "fuck you" ever since May's citizens of nowhere speech.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,116
    dixiedean said:

    Mark Francois on Newsnight says ERG will vote down WDA even without the backstop. The man is quite infuriating and thick.

    So basically nothing will get their support . They want no deal. They are demented .
  • kinabalu said:

    If it's only a trade organization, rather than a set of economies so deeply integrated as to require a major pooling of political and financial sovereignty, why are we needing to leave it to regain our sense of nationhood?

    Answers on a postcard to Brexit Towers.
    Regain our sense of nationhood? Really? The seperatists are loving every minute of it.

    I personally might have voted to leave because it's a horrific parody of a democratic institution.

    But heh, maybe I'm one of those (none) voters who "didn't understand what the EU actually is"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    What is the plan???????
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1154508020908343297?s=21
    Utter loons. The autumn election got a little closer.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    No. They will have us to blame. And rightfully so.

    Your arrogance is astonishing.
    And we will have them to blame. So everyone can be happy or unhappy as they choose.

    The WDA is dead. The backstop is dead. We have 99 days or so to come up with new arrangements or go to no deal. If the EU wants to spend that time flogging a dead horse then more fool them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,834
    Endillion said:

    Nonsense. Corbyn is both a rubbish politician, and someone whose politics I viscerally dislike. McDonnell is just the latter, hence why I fear him, and by extension, a Corbyn government. Raab is (mostly) just the former, hence I depair at his having been appointed Foreign Secretary, although I view it as a missed opportunity rather than a danger to my quality of life.

    The two qualities are perfectly separable for most people.

    They are of course separable - but my point was a little different.

    What I'm saying is that for many (most?) people who hate Corbyn's politics, the fact they perceive him (also) as ineffective is a source not of anger but of relief.

    Yourself for instance - would you rather he was red hot and making mincemeat of the Tories right now?

    That's a "no", am I right?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,116
    The WA covers many areas which are crucial for a smooth transition . Putting aside the backstop , it deals with a huge range of areas .

    Francois is really a piece of scum . Why do the BBC keep interviewing these nutjobs .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,956
    Francois "I believe the maths in the House of Commons is more complex than people usually think."
    Mmmm.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    And we will have them to blame. So everyone can be happy or unhappy as they choose.

    The WDA is dead. The backstop is dead. We have 99 days or so to come up with new arrangements or go to no deal. If the EU wants to spend that time flogging a dead horse then more fool them.
    Boris has assured me that the chance of no deal is almost zero so its fine.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Boris has assured me that the chance of no deal is almost zero so its fine.
    Well if the EU face reality and accept the backstop is dead and negotiate with him there is no reason to have no deal.

    If they choose to squander the next few months flogging a dead horse that is their choice.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Boris is a social liberal. Does anyone think otherwise?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Boris is a social liberal. Does anyone think otherwise?

    100% agree. That's why I like him.

    Not like May.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,323

    Are you sure we're allowed to leave? It's never been done before despite various democratic exercises.

    Given that they let us leave in March and we only didn't leave because we asked them for an extension, the answer to your question is "yes, we are allowed to leave".

    Although it is possible your question was not sincere.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1154508020908343297?s=21
    A few hardliners maybe but even most of the ERG voted for the Brady amendment ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit option so far to win a Commons majority
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366
    nico67 said:

    The WA covers many areas which are crucial for a smooth transition . Putting aside the backstop , it deals with a huge range of areas .

    Francois is really a piece of scum . Why do the BBC keep interviewing these nutjobs .

    You are extremely liberal with your insults these days. Perhaps tone it down a little?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366

    100% agree. That's why I like him.

    Not like May.
    Socially liberal but economically dry? Might have agreed if it wasn’t for his spending splurge. :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    AndyJS said:

    Boris is a social liberal. Does anyone think otherwise?

    On some issues yes but the fact he made Priti Patel his Home Secretary suggests on crime his government will take a pretty tough line
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Hahaha @Philip_Thompson getting the ‘blame the EU for all the misery of no deal’ off to a flying start.

    I thought no deal was not a problem so why would the EU care? Why would there be anyone to blame? I thought it was all project fear?

    Which is it???
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    Boris is a social liberal. Does anyone think otherwise?

    He doesn’t really have much choice given his history! ;)
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Nothing is impossible on this.

    In 98 days time the EU will have to put in a border or alternative arrangements on a no deal as the UK will not put a border in place

    No wonder Varadker is beginning to panic
    1. No deal, the EU loses a lot of money and it’s budget is a total mess.
    2. No deal, hits EU economies and businesses
    3. No deal, the hit to EU business and jobs will also undermine politicians and governments trying to get re elected.

    And all they need to avoid this disaster upon them is to allow technology to be used for customs in conjunction with other checks away from a hard border as a backstop to a deal not being agreed by the end of a lengthy transition that itself can even be extended, thus allowing UK government to narrowly win a vote in HoC.

    I agree with you Big G. Anyone betting against BoJo getting a deal by end of October truly are losers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,866
    HYUFD said:

    A few hardliners maybe but even most of the ERG voted for the Brady amendment ie the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, the only Brexit option so far to win a Commons majority
    The Brady amendment really meant, “Let’s pretend to be a united party on this so we can kick the can because otherwise it will be a gift to Labour.”
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    You are extremely liberal with your insults these days. Perhaps tone it down a little?
    He’s arguably too stupid to be considered scum. The latter implies an element of deliberate malevolence.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Zephyr said:

    1. No deal, the EU loses a lot of money and it’s budget is a total mess.
    2. No deal, hits EU economies and businesses
    3. No deal, the hit to EU business and jobs will also undermine politicians and governments trying to get re elected.

    And all they need to avoid this disaster upon them is to allow technology to be used for customs in conjunction with other checks away from a hard border as a backstop to a deal not being agreed by the end of a lengthy transition that itself can even be extended, thus allowing UK government to narrowly win a vote in HoC.

    I agree with you Big G. Anyone betting against BoJo getting a deal by end of October truly are losers.
    That..... That's the withdrawal agreement
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Zephyr said:

    1. No deal, the EU loses a lot of money and it’s budget is a total mess.
    2. No deal, hits EU economies and businesses
    3. No deal, the hit to EU business and jobs will also undermine politicians and governments trying to get re elected.

    And all they need to avoid this disaster upon them is to allow technology to be used for customs in conjunction with other checks away from a hard border as a backstop to a deal not being agreed by the end of a lengthy transition that itself can even be extended, thus allowing UK government to narrowly win a vote in HoC.

    I agree with you Big G. Anyone betting against BoJo getting a deal by end of October truly are losers.
    I thought no deal was nothing to fear and that its all scaremongering?
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    On some issues yes but the fact he made Priti Patel his Home Secretary suggests on crime his government will take a pretty tough line
    Priti tough (sic)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,323
    AndyJS said:

    Boris is a social liberal. Does anyone think otherwise?

    Yes. Me.
  • viewcode said:

    Given that they let us leave in March and we only didn't leave because we asked them for an extension, the answer to your question is "yes, we are allowed to leave".

    Although it is possible your question was not sincere.

    The Remainer parliament voted that me must ask for an extension.

    Anyway, I'm tired, off to bed.

    Night all.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,116
    edited July 2019
    RobD said:

    You are extremely liberal with your insults these days. Perhaps tone it down a little?
    I’ve only called Francois scum . That’s me being restrained ! However I will take your comments on board and refrain from using the term in future .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    edited July 2019

    The Remainer parliament voted that me must ask for an extension.

    Anyway, I'm tired, off to bed.

    Night all.
    The Remainer parliament voted into office by the people...

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I wonder if the likes of Baker today, and now Francois have just temporarily given Johnson cause to temporarily empathise with May...?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    If Boris can negotiate a backstopless WDA then it should be made a confidence vote. Anyone, whether Grieve or Francois who fails to back that should be expelled from the party.
    See, here's the whole problem with Leave... You're happy with a backstopless WDA, Francois and the ERG nutters want a harder Leave, other Leavers were happy with the WDA, some wanted something softer.

    It's like 52% voted for a team to win the Premiership and now it turns out they all support different teams.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    See, here's the whole problem with Leave... You're happy with a backstopless WDA, Francois and the ERG nutters want a harder Leave, other Leavers were happy with the WDA, some wanted something softer.

    It's like 52% voted for a team to win the Premiership and now it turns out they all support different teams.
    Great analogy!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,323
    edited July 2019
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293

    I missed this earlier, just saw your comment about be not replying. I'm interested, what are you thinking?
    I reckon that there will be no agreed change to the WA before Parliament reconvenes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,834
    Nigelb said:

    Fair enough.
    Prepare yourself, then.

    The betting will be a challenge. Very hard to keep emotion out of it. Especially an election like this one is shaping up to be. And I do now think it's coming soon. Oh god.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Freggles said:

    That..... That's the withdrawal agreement
    WDA minus backstop yes.

    The backstop is a logical loser. The EU can either have no backstop, no deal, no money etc in a matter of weeks.

    Or it can have money, a transition and kick the can on Ireland to years down the road.

    Its a no brainer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,366
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    I reckon that there will be no agreed change to the WA before Parliament reconvenes.
    Who said six weeks is a long time in politics? :p
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Great analogy!
    A better analogy is they voted for the same team, but don’t agree what winning the Premiership actually looks like.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    I reckon that there will be no agreed change to the WA before Parliament reconvenes.
    Parliament reconvenes is too tight. I would say before we exit. If there are going to be changes they'll be at five minutes to midnight.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    See, here's the whole problem with Leave... You're happy with a backstopless WDA, Francois and the ERG nutters want a harder Leave, other Leavers were happy with the WDA, some wanted something softer.

    It's like 52% voted for a team to win the Premiership and now it turns out they all support different teams.
    Which doesn't make a team winning the Premiership a bad idea, it just means that one particular team will need to win. I'm quite prepared to accept Francois being on the losing team.

    And as a Liverpool fan, I'm quite used to being on the losing team myself. Doesn't mean I wish to abolish having a winner and I don't enjoy the competition even if it ends in a near miss.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Which doesn't make a team winning the Premiership a bad idea, it just means that one particular team will need to win. I'm quite prepared to accept Francois being on the losing team.

    And as a Liverpool fan, I'm quite used to being on the losing team myself. Doesn't mean I wish to abolish having a winner and I don't enjoy the competition even if it ends in a near miss.
    But it makes the 48% who voted for one team to win the Premiership the winner.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293

    Parliament reconvenes is too tight. I would say before we exit. If there are going to be changes they'll be at five minutes to midnight.
    Given that any WA needs to change then pass both parliaments before 31 October, 5 minutes to midnight is not going to happen.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    alex. said:

    I wonder if the likes of Baker today, and now Francois have just temporarily given Johnson cause to temporarily empathise with May...?


    1. How many ERG votes do they speak for? How much ERG now on government payroll if not senior role too?
    2. Over the last year we have people saying one thing and voting another way, so it’s a mistake to count any vote this far out from division. We don’t know the nature of Boris deal with EU this evening, nor the bits that help him sell it and help Stevie and Franky compromise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The Remainer parliament voted into office by the people...

    Under false pretences. Something like 80% by memory of MPs were elected on a manifesto pledge of respecting the referendum result and actually leaving. Closer to 95% of English MPs from memory.

    Since the Remainer MPs pretended to be Leavers in order to get elected, lied to the electorate, then changed their colours after the election, a new election could be just what we need. Without Grieve and co polluting the blue team.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    They are of course separable - but my point was a little different.

    What I'm saying is that for many (most?) people who hate Corbyn's politics, the fact they perceive him (also) as ineffective is a source not of anger but of relief.

    Yourself for instance - would you rather he was red hot and making mincemeat of the Tories right now?

    That's a "no", am I right?
    Yeah, that's why I brought in McDonnell. The relief that Corbyn is useless is tempered by the knowledge that his perceived harmlessness is a necessary smokescreen to trick people into voting for him and his nutjob Chancellor who most people have never heard of. To say nothing of Seumas Milne et al.

    If Corbyn had been viewed as a serious contender for PM at the last election, all those who voted for him because they thought he couldn't possibly win, but wanted to kick the Tories because Brexit, would suddenly have had a huge decision to make.

    Which is a long-winded way of saying that, perversely, the more effectual Corbyn appears in the short term, the less of a threat he actually is in the long run. It's probably not a linear relationship though. In short, it's complicated.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Great analogy!
    Every revolution is led by a coalition of mutually exclusive alternatives. Once the revolution happens, it descends into infighting until one faction emerges victorious.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Under false pretences. Something like 80% by memory of MPs were elected on a manifesto pledge of respecting the referendum result and actually leaving. Closer to 95% of English MPs from memory.

    Since the Remainer MPs pretended to be Leavers in order to get elected, lied to the electorate, then changed their colours after the election, a new election could be just what we need. Without Grieve and co polluting the blue team.
    Total rubbish. Labour MPs for example were elected to negotiate a Labour Brexit with no arbitrary time limit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Given that any WA needs to change then pass both parliaments before 31 October, 5 minutes to midnight is not going to happen.
    I don't agree. It can pass Parliament in a week. The next scheduled European Council is 17-18 October, if there are to be any changes they'll probably be formally agreed then and ratified by both Parliaments in the following week.

    https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/?filters=2031
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    WDA minus backstop yes.

    The backstop is a logical loser. The EU can either have no backstop, no deal, no money etc in a matter of weeks.

    Or it can have money, a transition and kick the can on Ireland to years down the road.

    Its a no brainer.
    It’s a no brainier. The betting market should reflect this fact?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019

    But it makes the 48% who voted for one team to win the Premiership the winner.
    He didn't say that 48% voted for one team, he said 52% voted for a team to win but different teams which presumably means the 48% didn't want the Premiership to be won by any team.

    Tough luck, the 48% lost, there will be a winner we just need to decide which winner.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    He didn't say that 48% voted for one team, he said 52% voted for a team to win but different teams which presumably means the 48% didn't want the Premiership to be won by any team.

    Tough luck, the 48% lost, there will be a winner we just need to decide which winner.
    Complete nonsense.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    See, here's the whole problem with Leave... You're happy with a backstopless WDA, Francois and the ERG nutters want a harder Leave, other Leavers were happy with the WDA, some wanted something softer.

    It's like 52% voted for a team to win the Premiership and now it turns out they all support different teams.
    I do like your categorisation of the 48% as having voted for no-one to win anything.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Under false pretences. Something like 80% by memory of MPs were elected on a manifesto pledge of respecting the referendum result and actually leaving. Closer to 95% of English MPs from memory.

    Since the Remainer MPs pretended to be Leavers in order to get elected, lied to the electorate, then changed their colours after the election, a new election could be just what we need. Without Grieve and co polluting the blue team.

    The majority of voters backed parties that made clear they opposed to No Deal

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Zephyr said:

    It’s a no brainier. The betting market should reflect this fact?
    No, because this is politics and politics might trump logic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,293

    I don't agree. It can pass Parliament in a week. The next scheduled European Council is 17-18 October, if there are to be any changes they'll probably be formally agreed then and ratified by both Parliaments in the following week.

    https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/calendar/?filters=2031
    OK. If there are substantive changes to the WA (note not PD) by the end of the October European Council I will pay £20 to PB funds, if not, then you do.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    No, because this is politics and politics might trump logic.
    Yes. See Brexit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The majority of voters backed parties that made clear they opposed to No Deal

    We've been over this, the majority of voters backed parties that made clear they opposed absolutely everything.

    Don't say what a majority oppose, because in our divided politics that's everything, start with what a majority supported and work from there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,834
    Cyclefree said:

    My problem with Corbyn was well-established long before he became leader and has little to do with his policies. It has to do with his character, his association with anti-semites and men of violence, his default instincts which seem to be to be illiberal and not democratic and the particular strand of the hard left he comes from and has spent all his political life in.

    A Left leader who had strongly redistributive policies (a wealth tax, say, or high taxes to pay for public spending) but who does not come from the SWP strand that Corbyn seems to and who was effective in holding a government to account would be much better than an ineffectual moderate. So I voted for Neil Kinnock, who came from the Left. I would have voted for John Smith.

    That is quite convincing. I'm buying it, I think. Yes - bought.

    But I bet you have moved to the right since you voted for Kinnock - i.e. you are comparing apples (you 30 years ago) to pears (you today). As it were.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238



    Total rubbish. Labour MPs for example were elected to negotiate a Labour Brexit with no arbitrary time limit.

    Article 50 had already been triggered when the 2017 GE campaign began.

    That's hardly 'arbitrary'.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    And we will have them to blame. So everyone can be happy or unhappy as they choose.

    The WDA is dead. The backstop is dead. We have 99 days or so to come up with new arrangements or go to no deal. If the EU wants to spend that time flogging a dead horse then more fool them.

    Blame them for what? No deal is no problem, the PM has told us.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    OK. If there are substantive changes to the WA (note not PD) by the end of the October European Council I will pay £20 to PB funds, if not, then you do.
    Will you accept a binding codicil that changes the backstop as a substantive change? If so, I agree. Will you agree to someone arbitrating if its not crystal clear whether there's been a substantial change or not? If he still does that I would propose Peter_The_Punter but I don't know if he's still online here?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Zephyr said:

    It’s a no brainier. The betting market should reflect this fact?
    It's to be referred to now as a "no Barnier".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Blame them for what? No deal is no problem, the PM has told us.

    No deal is not ideal, I think even Boris has acknowledged its not first preference.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    I can’t wait for the scenes when reality finally hits and the Brexiteers realise that Britain cannot bully its way to what it wants and the mother of all tantrums erupts.

    It would be funny if it wasn’t going to massively affect my future.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    But it makes the 48% who voted for one team to win the Premiership the winner.
    They didn't vote for one team.

    Some voted for a closer union with the EU and membership of Schengen and the Single Currency.

    Some voted for the mythical status quo and things staying as they were. The Remainer's very own Unicorn.

    Many voted for fear of change and because, even though they didn't particularly like the EU, they believed we would be unable to leave without disruption.

    The Remain side were just as split on what they eventually wanted as the Leave side. To claim anything else is just dishonest.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    We've been over this, the majority of voters backed parties that made clear they opposed absolutely everything.

    Don't say what a majority oppose, because in our divided politics that's everything, start with what a majority supported and work from there.

    A majority supported parties that made clear they opposed no deal.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,116
    The problem was the Tory leadership was a race to the bottom .

    By sticking 31 October in as a hard date you effectively hamstrung any chances of a deal.

    With the summer recess , party conferences and new commission not taking over till November 1st there’s just not enough time .

    Even if you ditch the WA much of that repackaged would need to go into a proper bill which would be much bigger than the EU Withdrawal Act .

    That took 50 days to pass the Commons and the Lords .

    Even if you rushed it , extended the sitting hours there’s simply not enough time .
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Article 50 had already been triggered when the 2017 GE campaign began.

    That's hardly 'arbitrary'.
    Course it is. Article 50 always has had the mechanism for extensions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    A majority supported parties that made clear they opposed no deal.

    A majority supported parties that made clear they opposed remaining.
This discussion has been closed.