Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
It's only now being discussed? As Alistair says we looked at the possibility a month ago and ordered popcorn in anticipation...
Had it been previously discussed on the Today program ? If nothing else, that is an indication the idea has become mainstream, and any alternatives to foiling no deal are equally, if not more unlikely.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
It's only now being discussed? As Alistair says we looked at the possibility a month ago and ordered popcorn in anticipation...
Had it been previously discussed on the Today program ? If nothing else, that is an indication the idea has become mainstream, and any alternatives to foiling no deal are equally, if not more unlikely.
Boris failing to command a majority is almost the easiest way out of this mess.
If you imagine Hammond announcing that he is not just resigning as Chancellor but will also be resigning from the party - the numbers are so bad that Boris couldn't be recommended as PM. So then what happens and what could May do?
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
The by- election result in East Sheen last night was stunning.
East Sheen is the most Tory ward in the whole of Richmond Borough. The LibDems got 59% a 12% swing.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Good chance he will beat her again, usual carpetbagger.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
I don’t think it will happen but my betting is set up so that if it did happen all my Christmases would come at once.
Intersting but as you say even 5 minutes and you've lost your bet. Johnson has been like a slavering dog for so long immediately the vote's over he'll go like Phillias Fogg. He's probably got Hamilton driving his Jag.
I am really struggling to see how Boris avoids an almost immediate general election. He will not have a majority in Parliament and nor will anybody else.
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
The by- election result in East Sheen last night was stunning.
East Sheen is the most Tory ward in the whole of Richmond Borough. The LibDems got 59% a 12% swing.
The Daventry result is even more stunning... and yet another 4th-1st result
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
The by- election result in East Sheen last night was stunning.
East Sheen is the most Tory ward in the whole of Richmond Borough. The LibDems got 59% a 12% swing.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
It's only now being discussed? As Alistair says we looked at the possibility a month ago and ordered popcorn in anticipation...
The BBC can't just follow flights of fancy. When Alastair wrote his piece last night's vote hadn't happened and Johnson having up to 45 implacable enemies on his own side wasn't known.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
It is beginning to look like that.
I am very pleased that the responsible conservative mps put a brake on Boris yesterday and the momentum seems to be towards a brexit that may well be much like TM original deal
I have asserted for some time Boris will pivot in Office as being PM will be far more important to him than any promises he has made to achieve office.
We must all remember we are talking Boris here and to believe anything he says is a flight of fantasy
- TMay recommending to the Queen that the winner of her party’s leadership contest isn’t invited?
- The current Chancellor of the Exchequer and others backing a (presumably) Corbyn-laid VONC.
- Boris deciding he can’t be arsed after all.
While all of those are possible, I’m not sure I’d put money on any of them. I think he’ll at least be invited to form a government, after which 2 is possible, or even likely when he tries to do something stupid.
If he had to be elected as PM in a formal vote of the House, then it might be tricky. That would be a far more neutral manoeuvre for Tory remainers than backing a Corbyn VONc.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
I was on BBC HYS the other day, the 10 reasons why Brexit has gone wrong. Usually it is a fairly reliable place the to see pro Brexit posts upvoted, Remain posts down voted. I tell you though, it is now a 50/50 split, Some leavers seem to have packed up and gone home, given up the ghost. I just wonder.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
It is beginning to look like that.
I am very pleased that the responsible conservative mps put a brake on Boris yesterday and the momentum seems to be towards a brexit that may well be much like TM original deal
I have asserted for some time Boris will pivot in Office as being PM will be far more important to him than any promises he has made to achieve office.
We must all remember we are talking Boris here and to believe anything he says is a flight of fantasy
Was it a brake though? It was the shooting down of a really stupid and undemocratic idea which could have generated a no deal Brexit by default but Parliament has talked about little else for 2 years now without any conclusion. Just because they are meeting doesn't mean that they will be capable of coming up with an alternative that can produce a majority. The majority opposition to everything seems to be ever more entrenched.
Politico and Hanbury have picked 4 regions Scotland, North West, East Mids and London and asked them what Brexit, is Boris or Jeremy a better Tory leader and others.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
He didn't think the chanting was loud enough
An obviously false statement from him, given his own comments and his reaction at the time. But interesting that he has been convinced, for once, to at least pretend he was not happy with such a moment .
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
It's only now being discussed? As Alistair says we looked at the possibility a month ago and ordered popcorn in anticipation...
The BBC can't just follow flights of fancy. When Alastair wrote his piece last night's vote hadn't happened and Johnson having up to 45 implacable enemies on his own side wasn't known.
Whilst it's true that the broadcast media can't be quite as speculative as a site like this, it has irritated me to hear them describing the Tory Leadership Election as deciding who becomes the next PM.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
This idea of Remainers asking the Queen to extend Article 50 is the silliest idea since Leavers seriously considered asking the Queen to suspend democracy.
It's a rare plan to drag the queen into things which is not really stupid.
- TMay recommending to the Queen that the winner of her party’s leadership contest isn’t invited?
- The current Chancellor of the Exchequer and others backing a (presumably) Corbyn-laid VONC.
- Boris deciding he can’t be arsed after all.
While all of those are possible, I’m not sure I’d put money on any of them. I think he’ll at least be invited to form a government, after which 2 is possible, or even likely when he tries to do something stupid.
If he had to be elected as PM in a formal vote of the House, then it might be tricky. That would be a far more neutral manoeuvre for Tory remainers than backing a Corbyn VONc.
AFAICS the only way it happens is if a few Tories (Lee, Greening etc.) leave the party as soon as Bozo is elected. As some of them said they would.
It's possible someone like Greening might jump LibDem as their new leader takes the chair. But I reckon it's more likely Tories will wait to see how Bozo rules before making their decision in the autumn.
I am really struggling to see how Boris avoids an almost immediate general election. He will not have a majority in Parliament and nor will anybody else.
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
We will. The Boris fans may have their moment of triumph as the public really do give him a majority, but as you say the chances are they will lose seats to the lds and probably the snp too, so it will be hard. With labour trying to recover their remainer support will they really lose enough seats to the tories? Will BXP not shoot themselves in the door by taking votes from the tories and seeing remainers win?
Just because a new thread has been started it doesn't mean I wont stop being angry and ranty about the social care policy failure.
It is certainly a mess, but the demographics are such that it is going to be a bigger one. It is not just funding that is an issue, but also a shortage of good staff. Fortunately, on the Isle of Wight full time jobs are at a premium, so well staffed.
"Fortunately, on the Isle of Wight full time jobs are at a premium"
Every cloud, eh.
I feel for you - no one likes to see an animal suffer.
- TMay recommending to the Queen that the winner of her party’s leadership contest isn’t invited?
- The current Chancellor of the Exchequer and others backing a (presumably) Corbyn-laid VONC.
- Boris deciding he can’t be arsed after all.
While all of those are possible, I’m not sure I’d put money on any of them. I think he’ll at least be invited to form a government, after which 2 is possible, or even likely when he tries to do something stupid.
If he had to be elected as PM in a formal vote of the House, then it might be tricky. That would be a far more neutral manoeuvre for Tory remainers than backing a Corbyn VONc.
It's one thing to be in command of a party which with support has a majority of 3 in the HoCs. It's another thing to be in command of a party that on longer has a majority....
Boris is very likely to very quickly be leading a party unable to get a majority for anything - and in that case how do you plan things out.
It's almost easier for May to say that Boris doesn't have enough support, we will have to have a general election and call it on Thursday...
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
I don't think my circle is large enough to make a judgement. The ones that surprise me are the former Tories, but that's probably because I'm more familiar with LibDem-Labour switching because of tactical voting pre-2010.
Nothing to look at beyond 99% of Express readers being dementia sufferers.
(The other 1% are waiting for good news on Diana)
Are the words "have to" missing from the headline? I thought Johnson said he wasn't making any more spending commitments?
I think the Express is a dreadful paper but Roger's comment on dementia sufferers is wholly inappropriate.
I saw first hand the pain of dementia when my mother in law died suddenly and after 6 months in a nursing home we bought my father in law home from Scotland to live with us in North Wales, only to receive the diagnosis of his dementia which my mother in law had been masking for quite a long time
He only lived six weeks with us before passing away in our home with the family beside him after witnessing the most horrific weeks of agony and suffering with the complete loss of his mind and lovely loving quietly christian attitude to life following his time as a most successful Scottish seine net fishing boat skipper
Please do not joke or disrespect dementia, it is the cruelest of diseases and it took over two years before my wife and I could even talk about that time in our family's life
I am really struggling to see how Boris avoids an almost immediate general election. He will not have a majority in Parliament and nor will anybody else.
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
We will. The Boris fans may have their moment of triumph as the public really do give him a majority, but as you say the chances are they will lose seats to the lds and probably the snp too, so it will be hard. With labour trying to recover their remainer support will they really lose enough seats to the tories? Will BXP not shoot themselves in the door by taking votes from the tories and seeing remainers win?
TBP are another risk for Boris but if he is the only leader unequivocally committed to delivering Brexit (which seems likely) they will have something of a dilemma. As we have seen with the ERG purity always comes before things like a practical result but I think that they may be more selective in their seat strategy than currently indicated.
I am really struggling to see how Boris avoids an almost immediate general election. He will not have a majority in Parliament and nor will anybody else.
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
We will. The Boris fans may have their moment of triumph as the public really do give him a majority, but as you say the chances are they will lose seats to the lds and probably the snp too, so it will be hard. With labour trying to recover their remainer support will they really lose enough seats to the tories? Will BXP not shoot themselves in the door by taking votes from the tories and seeing remainers win?
What extreme Remainers don’t realise is just how insanely popular IDS is across the country, and among all ages too.
“Insanely Popular”
18% think IDS is good; 38% think he was terrible; 44% trying to forget.
Doesn't say much for the others does, it.
And greetings from holidaying Coles on a damp Anglesey, where it is impossible this morning to wave to Mr G on the Great Orme!
And greetings to you both. I went to both places in North Wales for the first time last year and loved it.
And to you.
My wife and I have travelled round the World on several occasions and visited most every place on one's bucket list but whenever we drive over the Little Orme and Llandudno Bay with the Great Orme appears in view, we marvel that it really does take some beating
I am really struggling to see how Boris avoids an almost immediate general election. He will not have a majority in Parliament and nor will anybody else.
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
We will. The Boris fans may have their moment of triumph as the public really do give him a majority, but as you say the chances are they will lose seats to the lds and probably the snp too, so it will be hard. With labour trying to recover their remainer support will they really lose enough seats to the tories? Will BXP not shoot themselves in the door by taking votes from the tories and seeing remainers win?
"Were you up for JRM?"
I just don't think the Conservative and Unionist Party is that lucky at the moment.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
They are almost all 2016 Remain voters anyway at national level or at local level Leave voters who like LD bin collection and pothole policies
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
I was on BBC HYS the other day, the 10 reasons why Brexit has gone wrong. Usually it is a fairly reliable place the to see pro Brexit posts upvoted, Remain posts down voted. I tell you though, it is now a 50/50 split, Some leavers seem to have packed up and gone home, given up the ghost. I just wonder.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
If you want pro Brexit arguers go to Mail or Telegraph online or certain parts of Twitter.
The BBC online is no more than average at best in terms of Brexit arguers as is PB
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
If you tend to the status quo and are suspicious of change without demonstrable benefits, the Lib Dems are unquestionably the party for you now. Leaving aside whether you like the Lib Dems as a party or think they are competent.
That philosophy underpinned the success of the Conservative Party for over one hundred years, but they have thrown it away.The Lib Dems now have a simple and easily understood message, which hasn't always been the case in the past.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
In my area of rural Scotland it is the Tories who are swinging most strongly, I would estimate they are not much more than half their previous numbers.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
I was on BBC HYS the other day, the 10 reasons why Brexit has gone wrong. Usually it is a fairly reliable place the to see pro Brexit posts upvoted, Remain posts down voted. I tell you though, it is now a 50/50 split, Some leavers seem to have packed up and gone home, given up the ghost. I just wonder.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
If you want pro Brexit arguers go to Mail or Telegraph online or certain parts of Twitter.
The BBC online is no more than average at best in terms of Brexit arguers as is PB
You're not seriously recommending Mail Online for informed Brexit argument? You yourself are an intellectual titan compared with most of the posters in there.
Just because a new thread has been started it doesn't mean I wont stop being angry and ranty about the social care policy failure.
It is certainly a mess, but the demographics are such that it is going to be a bigger one. It is not just funding that is an issue, but also a shortage of good staff. Fortunately, on the Isle of Wight full time jobs are at a premium, so well staffed.
"Fortunately, on the Isle of Wight full time jobs are at a premium"
Every cloud, eh.
I feel for you - no one likes to see an animal suffer.
Well, you say that..
Corbyn and Boris are not animals, except in a purely biological sense.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
They are almost all 2016 Remain voters anyway at national level or at local level Leave voters who like LD bin collection and pothole policies
Remain voters plus those Leave voters who want their bins collected and streets mended sounds like a very promising coalition to me.
Politico and Hanbury have picked 4 regions Scotland, North West, East Mids and London and asked them what Brexit, is Boris or Jeremy a better Tory leader and others.
Make what you will of it.
Both Boris and Hunt do not pick up any new voters on that poll bar Boris would win over Brexit Party voters. Boris repels less voters than Hunt in London, the East Midlands and the North West but if is the reverse in Scotland. Voters prefer both Boris and Hunt to Corbyn though.
On the EU the poll reveals less than 10% back further extension beyond October, beyond that a huge divide. 51% of Londoners and 53% of Scots back revoking Article 50 but 48% of East Midlands voters back No Deal to just 33% for revoking Article 50. In the North West 42% back a No Deal Brexit to 41% for revoke and Remain
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
I hate to be the guy to rub it in, but who exactly did you think were going to be the masterminds who were going to feature in government when you voted Leave?
Nothing to look at beyond 99% of Express readers being dementia sufferers.
(The other 1% are waiting for good news on Diana)
Are the words "have to" missing from the headline? I thought Johnson said he wasn't making any more spending commitments?
I think the Express is a dreadful paper but Roger's comment on dementia sufferers is wholly inappropriate.
I saw first hand the pain of dementia when my mother in law died suddenly and after 6 months in a nursing home we bought my father in law home from Scotland to live with us in North Wales, only to receive the diagnosis of his dementia which my mother in law had been masking for quite a long time
He only lived six weeks with us before passing away in our home with the family beside him after witnessing the most horrific weeks of agony and suffering with the complete loss of his mind and lovely loving quietly christian attitude to life following his time as a most successful Scottish seine net fishing boat skipper
Please do not joke or disrespect dementia, it is the cruelest of diseases and it took over two years before my wife and I could even talk about that time in our family's life
Agree; my father-in-law reversed character completely and was impossibile to cope with.
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Trump won and I note as many want to send Corbyn to the moon as Boris
This race to the bottom is why both Labour & Tory members are equally responsible for both Boris & Corbyn. It is so easy for them to say what about the other guy that they forget about basics like competence, integrity or ability to build a consensus in their own leaders.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
What on earth is Boris thinking? Does IDS have something on him?
Nothing to look at beyond 99% of Express readers being dementia sufferers.
(The other 1% are waiting for good news on Diana)
Are the words "have to" missing from the headline? I thought Johnson said he wasn't making any more spending commitments?
I think the Express is a dreadful paper but Roger's comment on dementia sufferers is wholly inappropriate.
I saw first hand the pain of dementia when my mother in law died suddenly and after 6 months in a nursing home we bought my father in law home from Scotland to live with us in North Wales, only to receive the diagnosis of his dementia which my mother in law had been masking for quite a long time
He only lived six weeks with us before passing away in our home with the family beside him after witnessing the most horrific weeks of agony and suffering with the complete loss of his mind and lovely loving quietly christian attitude to life following his time as a most successful Scottish seine net fishing boat skipper
Please do not joke or disrespect dementia, it is the cruelest of diseases and it took over two years before my wife and I could even talk about that time in our family's life
I don't know, Big G.
We were in a similar situation: my mum's partner had an extreme, widespread, but little-known form, Lewy Body dementia. Very few people have ever heard of it, and if so it's only because of Robin Williams. But there are 100,000 people in Britain with it.
He died last year. In some ways it was a blessed relief - mum had aged beyond measure as his sole carer for the last few years, and I was petrified that she was going to go the same way as other strong women I've known who've been laid low by the burden of caring. We escaped that. But it was, as you say, the cruellest of diseases.
Which is why I want people to joke about it, laugh about it, make fun of it. Whatever. Anything as long as they're talking about it. Dementia is woefully ignored in this country in respect of its massive impact: the "dementia tax" story has been the only time it's really hit national consciousness, and that (as with this latest Boris episode) was really an inheritance story rather than anything to do with the plight of the sufferers. We need to talk much more about dementia, and if some of that is crude joking, then so be it - at least it gets it into people's minds.
Sorry, way too serious for a Friday morning. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
What on earth is Boris thinking? Does IDS have something on him?
The love of Tory members. Boris has that for now, but everyone knows he is mercurial.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
What on earth is Boris thinking?
Ah. I think I've spotted a flaw in your reasoning...
Will Trump accept a close defeat, or try to barricade himself in the White House?
That is a good question. How will he be made to leave? If it's a big defeat - great - but if it's close, I foresee problems. Consider what his reaction would have been in 2016 if the situation had been reversed - that he won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Would he have accepted it in the way that HRC did?
Don't worry, that's not an actual question. We know the answer.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
- TMay recommending to the Queen that the winner of her party’s leadership contest isn’t invited?
- The current Chancellor of the Exchequer and others backing a (presumably) Corbyn-laid VONC.
- Boris deciding he can’t be arsed after all.
While all of those are possible, I’m not sure I’d put money on any of them. I think he’ll at least be invited to form a government, after which 2 is possible, or even likely when he tries to do something stupid.
If he had to be elected as PM in a formal vote of the House, then it might be tricky. That would be a far more neutral manoeuvre for Tory remainers than backing a Corbyn VONc.
AFAICS the only way it happens is if a few Tories (Lee, Greening etc.) leave the party as soon as Bozo is elected. As some of them said they would.
It's possible someone like Greening might jump LibDem as their new leader takes the chair. But I reckon it's more likely Tories will wait to see how Bozo rules before making their decision in the autumn.
Nothing to look at beyond 99% of Express readers being dementia sufferers.
I think the Express is a dreadful paper but Roger's comment on dementia sufferers is wholly inappropriate.
I saw first hand the pain of dementia when my mother in law died suddenly and after 6 months in a nursing home we bought my father in law home from Scotland to live with us in North Wales, only to receive the diagnosis of his dementia which my mother in law had been masking for quite a long time
He only lived six weeks with us before passing away in our home with the family beside him after witnessing the most horrific weeks of agony and suffering with the complete loss of his mind and lovely loving quietly christian attitude to life following his time as a most successful Scottish seine net fishing boat skipper
Please do not joke or disrespect dementia, it is the cruelest of diseases and it took over two years before my wife and I could even talk about that time in our family's life
I don't know, Big G.
We were in a similar situation: my mum's partner had an extreme, widespread, but little-known form, Lewy Body dementia. Very few people have ever heard of it, and if so it's only because of Robin Williams. But there are 100,000 people in Britain with it.
He died last year. In some ways it was a blessed relief - mum had aged beyond measure as his sole carer for the last few years, and I was petrified that she was going to go the same way as other strong women I've known who've been laid low by the burden of caring. We escaped that. But it was, as you say, the cruellest of diseases.
Which is why I want people to joke about it, laugh about it, make fun of it. Whatever. Anything as long as they're talking about it. Dementia is woefully ignored in this country in respect of its massive impact: the "dementia tax" story has been the only time it's really hit national consciousness, and that (as with this latest Boris episode) was really an inheritance story rather than anything to do with the plight of the sufferers. We need to talk much more about dementia, and if some of that is crude joking, then so be it - at least it gets it into people's minds.
Sorry, way too serious for a Friday morning. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
You are absolutely right that it needs highlighting and discussing but Roger's throw away line that 99% of Express readers suffer dementia is not at all funny to those who have seen loved ones destroyed by it
Rebel anti Brexit MPs are planning to ask the Queen to attend the next European Council summit as she is entitled to as Head of State and request an extension of Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal (PM Boris of course would have to submit to the Queen as he is only her chief Minister, she is still head of the executive in the UK).
If true appalling, I expect the Duke of Edinburgh would be outraged as much as he is still going in this attempt to force the Queen to do diehard Remainers dirty work. Hopefully she would refuse and insist on a general election if necessary
Hopefully she would refuse? Damn right she would refuse, and rightly so. What the hell are they up to? There is no way that could possibly happen.
The operative part of that article is
"...these Conservatives are thinking of holding a vote on a parliamentary device known as a humble address to the Queen.
If passed, the address would say that if the new prime minister ignored a vote rejecting no deal the Queen would be asked to exercise her right as head of state to travel to the next EU summit. Under their plan she would then request an extension to the Article 50 process."
(my emphasis)
I think this is suggesting that if the executive attempts to ignore a vote in the House, they would escalate it.
I agree it would be unthinkable in practice, but, as with nuclear warfare, it is surely intended as MAD, rather than in expectation of implementation.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Shapps is also on a promise.
Boris, making multiple promises to people that cannot all be met? Who would have thought it possible!
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
I was on BBC HYS the other day, the 10 reasons why Brexit has gone wrong. Usually it is a fairly reliable place the to see pro Brexit posts upvoted, Remain posts down voted. I tell you though, it is now a 50/50 split, Some leavers seem to have packed up and gone home, given up the ghost. I just wonder.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
If you want pro Brexit arguers go to Mail or Telegraph online or certain parts of Twitter.
The BBC online is no more than average at best in terms of Brexit arguers as is PB
Don't be harsh on yourself. You are better than average.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Shapps is also on a promise.
Do you mind? Some of us have just eaten. The image of Boris having Shapps on a promise isn't good for the digestion.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
But at least IDS will be turning up the volume ....
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Shapps is also on a promise.
Do you mind? Some of us have just eaten. The image of Boris having Shapps on a promise isn't good for the digestion.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
They are almost all 2016 Remain voters anyway at national level or at local level Leave voters who like LD bin collection and pothole policies
Remain voters plus those Leave voters who want their bins collected and streets mended sounds like a very promising coalition to me.
Except those Leave voters will still vote Tory or even Brexit Party nationally even if they sometimes vote LD locally if Epping Forest is anything to go by
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
But at least IDS will be turning up the volume ....
No frogs in his throat this time. They'll all be out because FoM has been abandoned.
Obviously no fan of Boris, but it seems a sensible rule change to me. What is the point of electing a leader and not giving them a year? In previous times it was probably unnecessary as no-one would have thought it appropriate, now no-one gives a shit about politeness.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Shapps is also on a promise.
Do you mind? Some of us have just eaten. The image of Boris having Shapps on a promise isn't good for the digestion.
He ran the best Tory GE campaign since 1992.
In a field of such fearsome competition as 1997 and 2017, when one has said that one has said everything.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Boris has terrible judgement. What would IDS bring to the Government in that role? I scratch my head as I can think of nothing.
I noticed an interesting signal about a possible GE next year with the announcement of the biggest public sector pay rise in quite a few years. It will be interesting to see if benefits get a boost as well. Governments win/lose elections rather oppositions. Maybe the Tories are preparing the ground for a GE next year in the spring? Certainly, 2017 shows that any snap electon needs to be called after tax cuts and public sector spending increases as 2017 had none! Could of made the difference between an overall majority and the hung parliament he Tories were faced with!
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
Thanks. That shows it is clearly people switching, not abstaining - or at the very least, those who are not voting are being roughly matched by those who have started voting again.
As I say, we shouldn't maybe get too caught up with these things, but it's yet another piece of evidence that people are thoroughly pissed off with Labour and the Tories and looking for alternatives.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
Connah's Quay Nomads beating Kilmarnock is "one of the biggest upsets in the history of Europa League" and a "bigger result" than Barcelona losing 4-0 in Liverpool, says manager Andy Morrison.
AEP: "The New York Fed’s gauge of recession risk a year ahead has rocketed to 33pc, a level that has invariably been followed by actual downturns over recent history" (Telegraph)
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
I am getting a lot of the same - people I've known for a while suddenly confessing a LibDem vote in the Euros or intending to vote LD next time.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
I was on BBC HYS the other day, the 10 reasons why Brexit has gone wrong. Usually it is a fairly reliable place the to see pro Brexit posts upvoted, Remain posts down voted. I tell you though, it is now a 50/50 split, Some leavers seem to have packed up and gone home, given up the ghost. I just wonder.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
If you want pro Brexit arguers go to Mail or Telegraph online or certain parts of Twitter.
The BBC online is no more than average at best in terms of Brexit arguers as is PB
No, I don't want to go there. For all we think of BBC as somewhat left liberal, I think it's a forum that attracts an older poster demographic, and my impression in the past has been that it has trended reliably Brexitty, although perhaps without the depth of vitriol of other sites.
Comments
If nothing else, that is an indication the idea has become mainstream, and any alternatives to foiling no deal are equally, if not more unlikely.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
He is divine, and cannot fail.
If he is unsuccessful, that is due to traitors who must be expunged
If you imagine Hammond announcing that he is not just resigning as Chancellor but will also be resigning from the party - the numbers are so bad that Boris couldn't be recommended as PM. So then what happens and what could May do?
And two raccoons.
Night all.
East Sheen is the most Tory ward in the whole of Richmond Borough. The LibDems got 59% a 12% swing.
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is evidence of changing minds on Brexif- there has been a shift to Remain in the polls but a small one, probably mostly younger people coming onto the register IMO. What is happening is a counter-reaction to Brexif among people who didn't support it in 2016, would have grumbled but accepted it in 2017 or 2018, but now want to make a stand and try and get it defeated. Most people now know its the LibDem/Green alliance leading the charge.
Have a wonderful holiday here in North Wales and maybe visit the Queen of Welsh resorts and my home town
This Parliament elected in 2017 was overwhelmingly committed to delivering Brexit in their manifestos. It has failed. May bears a lot of responsibility for that but there is plenty of blame to go around from the loons in the ERG, Labour MPs who stood on their manifesto and then voted against the deal 3x, some Euro zealots in the Tory party like Grieve, it goes on and on.
How that election will go is far from clear. I think it is safe to assume that the remaining CUKs (or whatever they are calling themselves this week) will be swept away. Some Tories really should be deselected since they are so viscerally opposed to party policy. Many more Lib Dems look likely to be elected and most of them will be at the cost of Tories. Can Boris take back enough seats from a dysfunctional Labour party to offset this? Who knows but I think we will find out.
I am very pleased that the responsible conservative mps put a brake on Boris yesterday and the momentum seems to be towards a brexit that may well be much like TM original deal
I have asserted for some time Boris will pivot in Office as being PM will be far more important to him than any promises he has made to achieve office.
We must all remember we are talking Boris here and to believe anything he says is a flight of fantasy
- TMay recommending to the Queen that the winner of her party’s leadership contest isn’t invited?
- The current Chancellor of the Exchequer and others backing a (presumably) Corbyn-laid VONC.
- Boris deciding he can’t be arsed after all.
While all of those are possible, I’m not sure I’d put money on any of them. I think he’ll at least be invited to form a government, after which 2 is possible, or even likely when he tries to do something stupid.
If he had to be elected as PM in a formal vote of the House, then it might be tricky. That would be a far more neutral manoeuvre for Tory remainers than backing a Corbyn VONc.
HYUFD and Philip Thompson are keeping up the high volume fight on here, but do they disguise that keenness of the pro-Brexit arguers has reduced here as well???
Politico and Hanbury have picked 4 regions Scotland, North West, East Mids and London and asked them what Brexit, is Boris or Jeremy a better Tory leader and others.
Make what you will of it.
It's possible someone like Greening might jump LibDem as their new leader takes the chair. But I reckon it's more likely Tories will wait to see how Bozo rules before making their decision in the autumn.
Boris is very likely to very quickly be leading a party unable to get a majority for anything - and in that case how do you plan things out.
It's almost easier for May to say that Boris doesn't have enough support, we will have to have a general election and call it on Thursday...
I saw first hand the pain of dementia when my mother in law died suddenly and after 6 months in a nursing home we bought my father in law home from Scotland to live with us in North Wales, only to receive the diagnosis of his dementia which my mother in law had been masking for quite a long time
He only lived six weeks with us before passing away in our home with the family beside him after witnessing the most horrific weeks of agony and suffering with the complete loss of his mind and lovely loving quietly christian attitude to life following his time as a most successful Scottish seine net fishing boat skipper
Please do not joke or disrespect dementia, it is the cruelest of diseases and it took over two years before my wife and I could even talk about that time in our family's life
My wife and I have travelled round the World on several occasions and visited most every place on one's bucket list but whenever we drive over the Little Orme and Llandudno Bay with the Great Orme appears in view, we marvel that it really does take some beating
I'd say that >50% bet in B&R might be a smart tip.
The BBC online is no more than average at best in terms of Brexit arguers as is PB
That philosophy underpinned the success of the Conservative Party for over one hundred years, but they have thrown it away.The Lib Dems now have a simple and easily understood message, which hasn't always been the case in the past.
https://twitter.com/alistaircoleman/status/1151979927924871168?s=21
Very encouraging. Three of them would be in my list.
https://twitter.com/nelibdems/status/1152114314884648960?s=21
On the EU the poll reveals less than 10% back further extension beyond October, beyond that a huge divide. 51% of Londoners and 53% of Scots back revoking Article 50 but 48% of East Midlands voters back No Deal to just 33% for revoking Article 50. In the North West 42% back a No Deal Brexit to 41% for revoke and Remain
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
We were in a similar situation: my mum's partner had an extreme, widespread, but little-known form, Lewy Body dementia. Very few people have ever heard of it, and if so it's only because of Robin Williams. But there are 100,000 people in Britain with it.
He died last year. In some ways it was a blessed relief - mum had aged beyond measure as his sole carer for the last few years, and I was petrified that she was going to go the same way as other strong women I've known who've been laid low by the burden of caring. We escaped that. But it was, as you say, the cruellest of diseases.
Which is why I want people to joke about it, laugh about it, make fun of it. Whatever. Anything as long as they're talking about it. Dementia is woefully ignored in this country in respect of its massive impact: the "dementia tax" story has been the only time it's really hit national consciousness, and that (as with this latest Boris episode) was really an inheritance story rather than anything to do with the plight of the sufferers. We need to talk much more about dementia, and if some of that is crude joking, then so be it - at least it gets it into people's minds.
Sorry, way too serious for a Friday morning. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
Don't worry, that's not an actual question. We know the answer.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1152089452283596800?s=21
"...these Conservatives are thinking of holding a vote on a parliamentary device known as a humble address to the Queen.
If passed, the address would say that if the new prime minister ignored a vote rejecting no deal the Queen would be asked to exercise her right as head of state to travel to the next EU summit. Under their plan she would then request an extension to the Article 50 process."
(my emphasis)
I think this is suggesting that if the executive attempts to ignore a vote in the House, they would escalate it.
I agree it would be unthinkable in practice, but, as with nuclear warfare, it is surely intended as MAD, rather than in expectation of implementation.
When IDS was Tory leader he tried to get Johnson sacked as editor of the Spectator as the Spectator was critical of IDS and his leadership.
Ah.
I see why they're worried.
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday
Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday
LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
I noticed an interesting signal about a possible GE next year with the announcement of the biggest public sector pay rise in quite a few years. It will be interesting to see if benefits get a boost as well. Governments win/lose elections rather oppositions. Maybe the Tories are preparing the ground for a GE next year in the spring? Certainly, 2017 shows that any snap electon needs to be called after tax cuts and public sector spending increases as 2017 had none! Could of made the difference between an overall majority and the hung parliament he Tories were faced with!
As I say, we shouldn't maybe get too caught up with these things, but it's yet another piece of evidence that people are thoroughly pissed off with Labour and the Tories and looking for alternatives.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1151929633236910080
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
Connah's Quay Nomads beating Kilmarnock is "one of the biggest upsets in the history of Europa League" and a "bigger result" than Barcelona losing 4-0 in Liverpool, says manager Andy Morrison.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/49040717
All those poor slaves that died building Hadrian’s Wall and it needed was a third rate European football team and the Scots would have never got past.
AEP: "The New York Fed’s gauge of recession risk a year ahead has rocketed to 33pc, a level that has invariably been followed by actual downturns over recent history"
(Telegraph)