Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Boris has terrible judgement. What would IDS bring to the Government in that role? I scratch my head as I can think of nothing.
I noticed an interesting signal about a possible GE next year with the announcement of the biggest public sector pay rise in quite a few years. It will be interesting to see if benefits get a boost as well. Governments win/lose elections rather oppositions. Maybe the Tories are preparing the ground for a GE next year in the spring? Certainly, 2017 shows that any snap electon needs to be called after tax cuts and public sector spending increases as 2017 had none! Could of made the difference between an overall majority and the hung parliament he Tories were faced with!
I heard that this morning but apparently it has to come from existing budgets so where are the savings coming from
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
I take it, Daventry is [ was ] a LEAVE area.
59%
It's a local election though so local events take priority and it seems actual elections have been delayed once and will be delayed again due to local government reforms being delayed.
While it is not implausible, again, let's not get carried away. The headline should read 'disgraced illegally appointed notoriously dishonest and incompetent far-right former EU chief civil servant and Nazi apologist famous for his pot-stirring antics and Britophobia claims not one UK negotiator wanted to leave.'
He may, for once in his existence, be telling the truth. It doesn't altogether surprise me. He may even be saying what he was told by negotiators concealing their real views in a bid to ingratiate themselves with him.
But really, it would be like uncritically accepting Jeremy Corbyn's views on something said by the IRA about how much they hated violence.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
I would take the obviousness of that with a pinch of salt; the majority of people do not watch the news or keep up with these things. If memory serves people knew Brown was gonna be PM years before he did, yet he still got a bump.
Obviously no fan of Boris, but it seems a sensible rule change to me. What is the point of electing a leader and not giving them a year? In previous times it was probably unnecessary as no-one would have thought it appropriate, now no-one gives a shit about politeness.
Because the very same people have only just stopped agitating for the time period to be reduced to six months?
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Boris has terrible judgement. What would IDS bring to the Government in that role? I scratch my head as I can think of nothing.
I noticed an interesting signal about a possible GE next year with the announcement of the biggest public sector pay rise in quite a few years. It will be interesting to see if benefits get a boost as well. Governments win/lose elections rather oppositions. Maybe the Tories are preparing the ground for a GE next year in the spring? Certainly, 2017 shows that any snap electon needs to be called after tax cuts and public sector spending increases as 2017 had none! Could of made the diference between an overall majority and the hung parliament he Tories were faced with!
It is not terrible judgement, but terrible friends as the only policy that would give him the leadership is bonkers. Given you have to support no deal to get in his cabinet, ranking the likely supporters in order of competence, with asterisks on those not fully with no deal:
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Williamson is the likely alternative! I am "cheering" IDS out of those two buffoons.
Shapps is also on a promise.
Do you mind? Some of us have just eaten. The image of Boris having Shapps on a promise isn't good for the digestion.
Iain Dale names Williamson, Shapps, Berry, Adams and Burns as people we should be expecting to get some preferment.
AEP: "The New York Fed’s gauge of recession risk a year ahead has rocketed to 33pc, a level that has invariably been followed by actual downturns over recent history" (Telegraph)
If you can't remember when shirts didn't have sponsors, a shirt without one always looks odd. It always give the impression that the club is too proud and can't find a business prepared to pay what the club values the advertising at.
Obviously no fan of Boris, but it seems a sensible rule change to me. What is the point of electing a leader and not giving them a year? In previous times it was probably unnecessary as no-one would have thought it appropriate, now no-one gives a shit about politeness.
Because the very same people have only just stopped agitating for the time period to be reduced to six months?
I am talking about the merits of the rule. As for the merits of the agitators, there are none.
Can I just say before I go off to work that I really didn't think that I could get more depressed about the state of our politics and then I come on to PB to discover people are seriously talking about IDS as DPM. Thanks guys.
It would be a dreadful backward step
Boris has terrible judgement. What would IDS bring to the Government in that role? I scratch my head as I can think of nothing.
I noticed an interesting signal about a possible GE next year with the announcement of the biggest public sector pay rise in quite a few years. It will be interesting to see if benefits get a boost as well. Governments win/lose elections rather oppositions. Maybe the Tories are preparing the ground for a GE next year in the spring? Certainly, 2017 shows that any snap electon needs to be called after tax cuts and public sector spending increases as 2017 had none! Could of made the difference between an overall majority and the hung parliament he Tories were faced with!
I heard that this morning but apparently it has to come from existing budgets so where are the savings coming from
Indeed, personally, I am a believer in sound public finances.
Just thought I would point out the strategic implications that might stem from it! New PMs tend to leave it a while before chancing a GE, upto 12 months seems to be the norm when a new PM comes in part way through a political cycle. One has to go back to Eden for anything that looks immediate.
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
I take it, Daventry is [ was ] a LEAVE area.
59%
It's a local election though so local events take priority and it seems actual elections have been delayed once and will be delayed again due to local government reforms being delayed.
Local issues are salient if someone has been campaigning hard on them. But the LibDems are winning votes out of the blue - for example last week's stunning win in Bridlington (an area stuffed with leave voting pensioners) where they hadn't even put up a candidate since 2007.
I note some discussion of the overnight council by-elections upthread.
Couple of points:
1) after the heady days of EICIPM we should know that we don't take such things too seriously.
2) That being said, the Daventry result is nothing short of an earthquake.
Does anyone have the raw figures, not just the percentage changes? Because what we are seeing could be disgusted voters being unwilling to turn out - who might come back at a GE - or we might be seeing a genuine shift, or some combination of the two.
Certainly at this moment no party should be making any assumptions about their popularity.
Daventry, Brixworth
Tories - 1,163 votes in May 2018 - > 615 yesterday Labour - 428 votes in May 2018 -> 218 yesterday LibDem - 197 votes in May 2018 -> 817 yesterday
But it's also a manufacturing town which exports into the single market. They may just have realised what leaving it will mean...
Edit - although as @eek rightly points out, the implosion of Northants County Council may be a factor.
I was going to observe that it's not Daventry itself, it's Brixworth, which is quite a leafy, comfortable, sandstone cottages type of village... so you might expect it to lean more Remain than the local average.
But then I just quickly street-viewed it and there are big areas of low-cost housing too, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Apologies if this was covered downthread, I couldn't re-find who linked.
Interesting study, but needs reading to the bottom as the lists of constituencies in the marginal clusters identified are absolutely key to interpretation, e.g. "E.Mids" figures refer to support across Chesterfield, Mansfield, NEDerbs, Ashfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley:
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
I would take the obviousness of that with a pinch of salt; the majority of people do not watch the news or keep up with these things. If memory serves people knew Brown was gonna be PM years before he did, yet he still got a bump.
A good point, I've said to myself plenty well it was obvious X was going to happen so the voters have it priced in... And they never ever do.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
If you can't remember when shirts didn't have sponsors, a shirt without one always looks odd. It always give the impression that the club is too proud and can't find a business prepared to pay what the club values the advertising at.
My biggest concern is just how much gambling companies are involved.
I can’t remember the last live match I watched on TV that wasn’t plastered with betting adverts.
We were in a similar situation: my mum's partner had an extreme, widespread, but little-known form, Lewy Body dementia. Very few people have ever heard of it, and if so it's only because of Robin Williams. But there are 100,000 people in Britain with it.
He died last year. In some ways it was a blessed relief - mum had aged beyond measure as his sole carer for the last few years, and I was petrified that she was going to go the same way as other strong women I've known who've been laid low by the burden of caring. We escaped that. But it was, as you say, the cruellest of diseases.
Which is why I want people to joke about it, laugh about it, make fun of it. Whatever. Anything as long as they're talking about it. Dementia is woefully ignored in this country in respect of its massive impact: the "dementia tax" story has been the only time it's really hit national consciousness, and that (as with this latest Boris episode) was really an inheritance story rather than anything to do with the plight of the sufferers. We need to talk much more about dementia, and if some of that is crude joking, then so be it - at least it gets it into people's minds.
Sorry, way too serious for a Friday morning. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
Big G's understandable sensitivity notwithstanding, I totally agree. My mum's last 3 years of dementia culminating in a 2 month hospital stay at the end probably counts as the most miserable period (experienced and as a witness) of my life. Mordant joking was sometimes the only way to cope.
Our human natures have made dementia into the great unspeakable because we're fearful that we and our loved ones may experience it, and want to avoid the great inadequacy of what medical, social services and we ourselves can do to respond. As you say we need to talk more about it, in whichever form we can. As my mum used to say when in full Doric mode, we're aah different.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
If you can't remember when shirts didn't have sponsors, a shirt without one always looks odd. It always give the impression that the club is too proud and can't find a business prepared to pay what the club values the advertising at.
My biggest concern is just how much gambling companies are involved.
I can’t remember the last live match I watched on TV that wasn’t plastered with betting adverts.
That is changing, not sure on the exact details but will be a lot less in play this year.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
The Tories were on 25% in the Comres poll giving Boris 32%, May is still Tory leader and Hunt could yet be PM for most non politics geeks. There will be no real Boris bounce until Boris is PM
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
I would take the obviousness of that with a pinch of salt; the majority of people do not watch the news or keep up with these things. If memory serves people knew Brown was gonna be PM years before he did, yet he still got a bump.
A good point, I've said to myself plenty well it was obvious X was going to happen so the voters have it priced in... And they never ever do.
The bounce comes from seeing a fresh face in the job, and seeing the tired incumbent shuffle away. I've been saying for some time that Bozo will get a bounce, but I doubt it will be huge.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
I just saw the Local government results from yesterday. Lib Dem [ or Green ] advances everywhere. Clearly, people are demanding Brexit !
I think the Libdems have benifitted from a clear position, which is attracting the anti Brexit vote. Remember Corbyn got 40% in 2017 by coalescing this group around Labour. This now seems to be going to the Libdems, and they are particular motivated. As has been demonstrated by the BP there are also around 20% hardcore leave vote who could coalesce around Boris - they did around May after her rhetoric, if Brexit needs to be delivered. I think that if Brexit happens the interesting point will be where all these voters settle.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
57 days since the last poll to give any party a 30+% share of the vote.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
What if we are in the midst of a realignment of British politics played out via leave/remain - we talk about it all day on here as being the primary factor but with Boris and Jezza toxic to significant minorities of their party supporters why couldn't the LDs power through?
TBP make debut in by elections next week both in Gloucester
Do you know which wards?
Barnwood and Podsmead
Would be astounded if BXP made any progress in Barnwood. That should be an easy Lib Dem gain.
Don't know enough about Podsmead to comment definitively. Again, instinct says that if any party is to take it under these circumstances it would be the Liberal Democrats.
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
To be fair, had Labour outpolled the Conservatives in East Sheen it would have been as remarkable as any Daventry-style swing. East Sheen is or perhaps was the most Conservative ward in Richmond so to get an 11% swing there is impressive. It is of course in Zac Goldsmith's constituency.
A solid set of LD results overnight, no question, but they are only local elections so no more meaningful than holding a parish council seat in the cosmic scheme of things.
Normally, I'd be concerned about the LDs losing momentum over the summer holidays but August seems not to be as quiet as it used to be.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
I would take the obviousness of that with a pinch of salt; the majority of people do not watch the news or keep up with these things. If memory serves people knew Brown was gonna be PM years before he did, yet he still got a bump.
A good point, I've said to myself plenty well it was obvious X was going to happen so the voters have it priced in... And they never ever do.
The bounce comes from seeing a fresh face in the job, and seeing the tired incumbent shuffle away. I've been saying for some time that Bozo will get a bounce, but I doubt it will be huge.
Given that Boris is going to walk into a political crisis almost as soon as he arrives (the only question is is it next Thursday or September) I'm not sure how long any bounce will last.. It could almost be gone instantly...
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
It isn't curious, May is still PM.
In 2007 it was more obvious who would succeed Blair. Brown was literally the only candidate from when nominations closed on 17 May until he became PM well over a month later.
But the bounce only happened when he was in Downing Street not when it was inevitable he would be.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
That reminds me of Hazel Blears desperately trying to spin two by-election routs where Labour had come fourth as 'a disastrous night for the tories' due to a somewhat reduced majority in one seat.
We were in a similar situation: my mum's partner had an extreme, widespread, but little-known form, Lewy Body dementia. Very few people have ever heard of it, and if so it's only because of Robin Williams. But there are 100,000 people in Britain with it.
He died last year. In some ways it was a blessed relief - mum had aged beyond measure as his sole carer for the last few years, and I was petrified that she was going to go the same way as other strong women I've known who've been laid low by the burden of caring. We escaped that. But it was, as you say, the cruellest of diseases.
Which is why I want people to joke about it, laugh about it, make fun of it. Whatever. Anything as long as they're talking about it. Dementia is woefully ignored in this country in respect of its massive impact: the "dementia tax" story has been the only time it's really hit national consciousness, and that (as with this latest Boris episode) was really an inheritance story rather than anything to do with the plight of the sufferers. We need to talk much more about dementia, and if some of that is crude joking, then so be it - at least it gets it into people's minds.
Sorry, way too serious for a Friday morning. I clearly haven't had enough coffee yet.
Big G's understandable sensitivity notwithstanding, I totally agree. My mum's last 3 years of dementia culminating in a 2 month hospital stay at the end probably counts as the most miserable period (experienced and as a witness) of my life. Mordant joking was sometimes the only way to cope.
Our human natures have made dementia into the great unspeakable because we're fearful that we and our loved ones may experience it, and want to avoid the great inadequacy of what medical, social services and we ourselves can do to respond. As you say we need to talk more about it, in whichever form we can. As my mum used to say when in full Doric mode, we're aah different.
I agree with all of the above. The non funding of care for what is essentially a medical condition is a disgrace - and the efforts local authorities and the NHS will go to in denying support, while dancing along the edges of adhering to the law, something of a sick joke to anyone who has been through the experience.
Connah's Quay Nomads beating Kilmarnock is "one of the biggest upsets in the history of Europa League" and a "bigger result" than Barcelona losing 4-0 in Liverpool, says manager Andy Morrison.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Is there a particular party these LD potential switchers come from or is it completely random?
In my area of rural Scotland it is the Tories who are swinging most strongly, I would estimate they are not much more than half their previous numbers.
My point about the Lib Dems being the only status quo party _particularly_ applies to Scotland.
And remember it's now obvious who the next Tory leader will be so for those expecting the Tory figure to rise to 32% as outlined in HYUFD's favourite poll an increase of just 1% to 25% is, shall we say, curious...
It isn't curious, May is still PM.
In 2007 it was more obvious who would succeed Blair. Brown was literally the only candidate from when nominations closed on 17 May until he became PM well over a month later.
But the bounce only happened when he was in Downing Street not when it was inevitable he would be.
Giving your maiden PM speech outside downing street is pretty easy. May even did good job selling in that speech, possibly the only time she sold well in her leadership.
So Boris may well get a short term bounce when becoming PM. It will unravel quickly though as it becomes clear what a cabinet of Williamson, IDS, Patel et al can(t) deliver.
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
What if we are in the midst of a realignment of British politics played out via leave/remain - we talk about it all day on here as being the primary factor but with Boris and Jezza toxic to significant minorities of their party supporters why couldn't the LDs power through?
Roundheads and Cavaliers? The Jacobites as the BXP of their day?
Another Friday morning where I wake up and find another set of very strong results for the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. Really impressive swings and gains in some very surprising areas.
On the doors I would say that this is being noticed even by the neutrals: "saw your lot did very well the other day..." and I may say they are quite happy about this momentum.. "good to see you gave XXX a kicking, might even vote for you myself next time".
Meanwhile Comical Ali HYFUD claims its just a flesh wound, but it really isn't, there are now a lot of votes saying exactly the same thing: the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
Also worth noting that there have been no Brexit Party candidates in these by-elections so they are taking place under HYFUD's ideal scenario where the Faragists have effectively stood aside to give the Tories a clear run.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
Even Hague won local council by elections and often local rather than national factors are key.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Every result last night showed a con to labour swing
Every result last night showed the Cons beating Labour
What if we are in the midst of a realignment of British politics played out via leave/remain - we talk about it all day on here as being the primary factor but with Boris and Jezza toxic to significant minorities of their party supporters why couldn't the LDs power through?
I was really interested to see you use the phrase "the protest vote" - not something I've heard in a while, and, I think with good reason.
The "protest vote" has actually fractured into 'Leave/Remain' or possibly more accurately 'Hang them all/Status Quo' (which was focused into 'Leave/Remain'). And that is what is so very dangerous for all the established parties (including the Lib Dems).
I had a briefing a couple of years ago from ukrep and when I asked them what they had achieved in their negotiations thus far the leader of the team said (with some satisfaction) they had an agreement the uk could opt back in to various measures. They seemed confused by the fact not a single attendee believed that was all they had brought to the table.
The next Tory leader could do worse than follow a previous posters (I assume) joking suggestion of employing Selmayr. He takes no prisoners and is not ideological.
I’ll give JRM and the Sun’s subs the benefit of the doubt that they know the difference between ‘peddle’ and ‘pedal’, and that they’re entertaining the Sun audience with their subtle and witty word play...
Comments
Not helping am I .....
There's always the excitement of the Northumbria PCC by-election count to look forward to later this morning ....
Blimey that’s a scoop and a half.
He may, for once in his existence, be telling the truth. It doesn't altogether surprise me. He may even be saying what he was told by negotiators concealing their real views in a bid to ingratiate themselves with him.
But really, it would be like uncritically accepting Jeremy Corbyn's views on something said by the IRA about how much they hated violence.
And before anyone jumps in I am aware that they are only local government by-elections but they do seem to be running counter to what might be expected if the Conservatives were heading towards the sort of landslide some are predicting under Johnson. It could still happen of course if the anti-Tory vote is badly split and doesn't vote tactically.
https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2016-06-24/daventry-voters-back-brexit/
But it's also a manufacturing town which exports into the single market. They may just have realised what leaving it will mean...
Edit - although as @eek rightly points out, the implosion of Northants County Council may be a factor.
Javid
Hunt
Gove*
Cox
Rudd*
Leadsom
Fallon
Mordaunt
IDS
Barclay
Truss
Hancock*
Raab
Patel
Fox
Williamson
Grayling
He may accept the asterisks but will not want them too powerful, not sure any of the names below IDS are particularly better suited.
https://twitter.com/htafc/status/1152126447345123329?s=21
Just thought I would point out the strategic implications that might stem from it! New PMs tend to leave it a while before chancing a GE, upto 12 months seems to be the norm when a new PM comes in part way through a political cycle. One has to go back to Eden for anything that looks immediate.
But then I just quickly street-viewed it and there are big areas of low-cost housing too, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Interesting study, but needs reading to the bottom as the lists of constituencies in the marginal clusters identified are absolutely key to interpretation, e.g. "E.Mids" figures refer to support across Chesterfield, Mansfield, NEDerbs, Ashfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley:
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/
I can’t remember the last live match I watched on TV that wasn’t plastered with betting adverts.
Our human natures have made dementia into the great unspeakable because we're fearful that we and our loved ones may experience it, and want to avoid the great inadequacy of what medical, social services and we ourselves can do to respond. As you say we need to talk more about it, in whichever form we can. As my mum used to say when in full Doric mode, we're aah different.
While not great for the Tories the main news from them is it is the LDs and Greens not Labour picking up the protest vote
Don't know enough about Podsmead to comment definitively. Again, instinct says that if any party is to take it under these circumstances it would be the Liberal Democrats.
A solid set of LD results overnight, no question, but they are only local elections so no more meaningful than holding a parish council seat in the cosmic scheme of things.
Normally, I'd be concerned about the LDs losing momentum over the summer holidays but August seems not to be as quiet as it used to be.
In 2007 it was more obvious who would succeed Blair. Brown was literally the only candidate from when nominations closed on 17 May until he became PM well over a month later.
But the bounce only happened when he was in Downing Street not when it was inevitable he would be.
Leavers should receive the largest Brexit ‘dividend’.
The non funding of care for what is essentially a medical condition is a disgrace - and the efforts local authorities and the NHS will go to in denying support, while dancing along the edges of adhering to the law, something of a sick joke to anyone who has been through the experience.
NEW THREAD
https://youtu.be/yplpOHHKaC0
https://twitter.com/htafc/status/1151585633036619778
So Boris may well get a short term bounce when becoming PM. It will unravel quickly though as it becomes clear what a cabinet of Williamson, IDS, Patel et al can(t) deliver.
Newcastle: 19.0%
North Tyneside: 14.6%
Sunderland: 14.5%
Gateshead: 14.5%
South Tyneside: 13.2%
Northumberland: 13.7%
The "protest vote" has actually fractured into 'Leave/Remain' or possibly more accurately 'Hang them all/Status Quo' (which was focused into 'Leave/Remain'). And that is what is so very dangerous for all the established parties (including the Lib Dems).
They seemed confused by the fact not a single attendee believed that was all they had brought to the table.
The next Tory leader could do worse than follow a previous posters (I assume) joking suggestion of employing Selmayr. He takes no prisoners and is not ideological.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1152846319960121345?s=20