Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Safe to say Oprah would flatten Trump, but she doesn't want it (and who the hell can blame her)?
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
I increasingly get the impression that the Democrats would rather lose the next presidential election while retaining purity of thought than winning it if that involves any sort of compromise with moderate ideology.
Trump is moderate??
Moderate Democrats. Joe Biden is too moderate for some people in the party.
I don't think it's his moderation that most Democrats seem to have a problem with. It's that he's unable to remember what story he's telling.
Boris: every PM needs a minor army officer who has failed in every political post he has held.
IDS won most votes in both local elections he led the Tories at
But his vote was down in 2002 and barely changed in 2003. Those against elections in the run up to the disaster of 2001. What was happening at that time was Kennedy's Lib Dems were making hay against Blair's Labour, and the Tories were marooned in between.
IDS was an embarrassing fiasco as leader, and you can't rewrite history on that.
Oh FFS. Seriously? There are PXP/Tories defending IDS? I shall retire to Bedlam.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Safe to say Oprah would flatten Trump, but she doesn't want it (and who the hell can blame her)?
Would Oprah really sweep the mid-west and the rust belt? I think if she thought she was a certainty to win, she probably would stand.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Michelle Obama would certainly be miles better than the current Democratic field, even Biden.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
I'm not denying that. I'm merely pointing out that the LibDems lost around 75% of their votes in 2015. To actually increase her number was a statistically extraordinary result.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
How far apart are John Nicholson and Swinson? Really? Apart from Scotland as a separate nation? I would say not much...
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
I'm not denying that. I'm merely pointing out that the LibDems lost around 75% of their votes in 2015. To actually increase her number was a statistically extraordinary result.
Tory tactical votes helped, as in 2017, they will be less numerous next time given her anti Brexit views and John Nicholson is quite amiable despite being a Nat
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Safe to say Oprah would flatten Trump, but she doesn't want it (and who the hell can blame her)?
Would Oprah really sweep the mid-west and the rust belt? I think if she thought she was a certainty to win, she probably would stand.
We are back to Biden then . Incredibly, available at 6.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Michelle Obama would certainly be miles better than the current Democratic field, even Biden.
I doubt she will run though
Al Gore would probably win if he stood again. Not sure whether he's completely retired from politics.
Rebel anti Brexit MPs are planning to ask the Queen to attend the next European Council summit as she is entitled to as Head of State and request an extension of Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal (PM Boris of course would have to submit to the Queen as he is only her chief Minister, she is still head of the executive in the UK).
If true appalling, I expect the Duke of Edinburgh would be outraged as much as he is still going in this attempt to force the Queen to do diehard Remainers dirty work. Hopefully she would refuse and insist on a general election if necessary
Hopefully she would refuse? Damn right she would refuse, and rightly so. What the hell are they up to? There is no way that could possibly happen.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
I'm not denying that. I'm merely pointing out that the LibDems lost around 75% of their votes in 2015. To actually increase her number was a statistically extraordinary result.
Tory tactical votes helped, as in 2017, they will be less numerous next time given her anti Brexit views and John Nicholson is quite amiable despite being a Nat
The Tory vote leapt 7% in 2017, while the SNP's fell.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987) as the country gives him a mandate for Brexit and the Tories gain 50 Labour Leave marginal seats despite some losses to the LDs in Remain areas.
Swinson will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Michelle Obama would certainly be miles better than the current Democratic field, even Biden.
I doubt she will run though
Al Gore would probably win if he stood again. Not sure whether he's completely retired from politics.
Hmm. You think Gore could get through the current Dem left/progressive primary voters?
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Safe to say Oprah would flatten Trump, but she doesn't want it (and who the hell can blame her)?
She’s probably too old now but I honestly think Judy Sheindlin could beat him.
I increasingly get the impression that the Democrats would rather lose the next presidential election while retaining purity of thought than winning it if that involves any sort of compromise with moderate ideology.
Trump is moderate??
Moderate Democrats. Joe Biden is too moderate for some people in the party.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Michelle Obama would certainly be miles better than the current Democratic field, even Biden.
I doubt she will run though
Al Gore would probably win if he stood again. Not sure whether he's completely retired from politics.
Hmm. You think Gore could get through the current Dem left/progressive primary voters?
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Safe to say Oprah would flatten Trump, but she doesn't want it (and who the hell can blame her)?
She’s probably too old now but I honestly think Judy Sheindlin could beat him.
I saw her in a restaurant in LA a few months ago: she's really tiny
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
That post is a keeper!
Indeed. However, caution. HYUFD did inform us long ago that Boris would be next Tory leader. He was right. I, for one, was wrong. He may be right again.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
That post is a keeper!
Indeed. However, caution. HYUFD did inform us long ago that Boris would be next Tory leader. He was right. I, for one, was wrong. He may be right again.
HYUFD, like all of us on here, has made some good predictions, and some poor ones.
He did claim, for example, that there was more chance he would be struck by an asteroid, than Macron would become French President.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
That post is a keeper!
Indeed. However, caution. HYUFD did inform us long ago that Boris would be next Tory leader. He was right. I, for one, was wrong. He may be right again.
HYUFD, like all of us on here, has made some good predictions, and some poor ones.
He did claim, for example, that there was more chance he would be struck by an asteroid, than Macron would become French President.
I cannot remember that (in fact I saw Macron coming out of Westminster Hall months before his election but admit I got that wrong, I thought it would be Fillon v Le Pen initially)
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
That post is a keeper!
Indeed. However, caution. HYUFD did inform us long ago that Boris would be next Tory leader. He was right. I, for one, was wrong. He may be right again.
HYUFD, like all of us on here, has made some good predictions, and some poor ones.
He did claim, for example, that there was more chance he would be struck by an asteroid, than Macron would become French President.
It is the difference between X will happen and X may happen. It is easy to predict the latter as you can't be wrong. HYUFD always goes for the former, and I quite admire him for that.
Here it is. While terrible things happen across the country, the Left spend every waking moment attacking their own party and shouting 'f - off back to the Tories'
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest Tory win since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
That post is a keeper!
Indeed. However, caution. HYUFD did inform us long ago that Boris would be next Tory leader. He was right. I, for one, was wrong. He may be right again.
HYUFD, like all of us on here, has made some good predictions, and some poor ones.
He did claim, for example, that there was more chance he would be struck by an asteroid, than Macron would become French President.
Was there a size limit? It is quite likely he was hit by a speck of space dust at some point in the intervening period.
If we think that Biden hasn't got it, look at the Betfair odds for a "normal, sane person" nominee consisting of good media performers with senate or governor experience who haven't committed themselves to anything that 51% of the electorate wouldn't normally consider disqualifying:
Then think about who got picked in previous races against incumbents: * Romney: Dull moderate competent former governor * Kerry: Dull moderate experienced senator * Dole: Dull moderate experienced senator * Mondale: Dull moderate former VP, now preeminent KLOBUCHAR stan
Part of this is probably that if there's no competitive race on the incumbent side there are more voters crossing over, so the primary electorate is actually more moderate than it looks.
It feels like there's more than a 1.something percent chance that this race will have the same result as all the previous races.
PS The fact that all these people lost may imply a problem with the strategy proposed by the Moustache of Understanding in that NY piece but arguably it'll still work against Trump.
Former SNP East Dunbartonshire MP John Nicholson on This Week refuses to rule out trying to regain his seat from Jo Swinson at the next general election
Interestingly, Jo Swinson actually increased her absolute vote tally in 2015. That, I suspect, is unique among LibDem MPs that year.
True but Nicholson beat her then
Don’t worry, she can lose her seat and still be PM from the Lords.
Ask your pal Boris.
Boris will hold Uxbridge comfortably on the back of his triumphant election victory nationwide (the greatest since Maggie's in 1987).
Swindon will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
Just shows how uniform swing is clearly not helpful at the moment.
Another case where LD-Green alliance would have won?
There is a ceiling on how many LDs would vote Green because someone tells them to do so in the name of 'progressive alliance' or other such disingenuous guff. I suspect this ceiling is markedly lower in traditional Liberal heartlands than in modern urban centres.
I'd consider voting LD in a LD-Lab marginal. I don't think there's any conceivable situation where I'd ever vote Green though.
I am going to a dinner with IDS and Dominic Raab tomorrow evening (with rumours of a special blond visitor too) and I can tell you IDS goes down very well with his members and most of his constituents
Oh, the intellectual back and forth. The rigorous evidence-based discussion. The uplifting open-mindedness. The tales of ministerial derring-do.
To my mind, the US 2020 election is terribly simple:
If the bond market and the PMIs are correct, and we enter a recession, then Trump is toast, irrespective of the Democratic nominee.
If the economy returns to the heady days of 2018, when it got a great boost from tax cuts, then he's probably back in, irrespective of his opponent.
If the economy is growing, but only marginally (like now), then two things matter:
1. Where the growth is concentrated 2. Who the Democratic nominee is
Regarding 1, it's worth noting that the rust belt continues to have some of the weakest economic growth in the US. (Annualised, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are practically in recession. Ohio is little better.) The one rust belt state where President Trump can hold out hope is Pennsylvania, which is growing at a solid 2.5% annualised rate.
This disparity between Texas (+6.6% annualised GDP growth) and Iowa (+0.3%) is problematic for the President, as he's probably going to win Texas irrespective, while Iowa is likely to be a close run thing.
2. Some of the Democratic nominees will find it harder than others. But I think it's too easy to say "Oh, America will never vote for a woman" or "coastal liberals are doomed" or somesuch. I certainly think we overestimate candidates relative to the zeitgeist, the economic conditions, and the popularity of the incumbent.
My forecast, then:
The Democrats will not choose Biden or Sanders. But I don't think this matters, because the Republicans will probably lose Arizona, Iowa and Wisconsin to the Democrats. In the candidate is Harris, they'll probably pick up North Carolina (as Obama did). If it is Buttigieg, I think they'll surprise in Indiana and some places that are whiter and more religious. If it's Warren, I think they'll manage Michigan.
A close run thing in 2020, then, but I forecast a Democratic win. (Albeit not a big one.)
Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person,
I thought you supported Biden...
And what caused Clinton to lose? Was she not decent or not sane?
She wasn't very good. She wouldn't have been in the spot she was except for nepotism.
Then there was a lot of dumb bad luck like, particularly the Comey letter coming out when it did.
And the fact she made the same mistake in the 2016 Presidential election that she made in the 2008 primaries. I.e., she forgot that delegates/electoral college votes are more important than raw vote count.
I would note that - of all the Democratic candidates - it seems to be Buttigieg that's followig the Obama organisational playbook.
Part of this is probably that if there's no competitive race on the incumbent side there are more voters crossing over, so the primary electorate is actually more moderate than it looks.
Piers Morgan on This Week says only Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey could beat Trump
That's probably an example of a statement which is made for effect, rather than being literally true. I don't think he really thinks those two could win.
Morgan has his head so far up Trump’s arse he ran into BoJo
Very kind of the Republican Party to make it clear that they are overtly racist with their 'Send her back' chants. Evil feckers.
P.S. @rcs1000 - I think I'm the only other PBer in this time zone at the moment. Laters.
Rotherham Parkgate "tram-train" added on Tuesday! Meadowhall South/Tinsley to Rotherham Central and Rotherham Central to Parkgate to be precise.
Hard core!
Edit: Why aren't you asleep?
I just saw you were online too!
2019 hasn't exactly been rich pickings for me, just Parkgate and the Bristol Harbour Railway (and even that was only partially open to the public on Easter Monday!). Hope to have a do at least Ayr to Stranraer, Cardross to Oban, Crianlarich to Mallaig and Falkirk to Alloa in a few weeks' time.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
He didn't think the chanting was loud enough
If you look at the video, he looks pretty happy about it.
Rebel anti Brexit MPs are planning to ask the Queen to attend the next European Council summit as she is entitled to as Head of State and request an extension of Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal (PM Boris of course would have to submit to the Queen as he is only her chief Minister, she is still head of the executive in the UK).
If true appalling, I expect the Duke of Edinburgh would be outraged as much as he is still going in this attempt to force the Queen to do diehard Remainers dirty work. Hopefully she would refuse and insist on a general election if necessary
No chance, the Queen will not get involved personally
Just shows how uniform swing is clearly not helpful at the moment.
Another case where LD-Green alliance would have won?
There is a ceiling on how many LDs would vote Green because someone tells them to do so in the name of 'progressive alliance' or other such disingenuous guff. I suspect this ceiling is markedly lower in traditional Liberal heartlands than in modern urban centres.
I'd consider voting LD in a LD-Lab marginal. I don't think there's any conceivable situation where I'd ever vote Green though.
Caroline Lucas seems at times as much a Lib Dem as a Green.....I dont think there is that much space on some of the big issues
Just shows how uniform swing is clearly not helpful at the moment.
Another case where LD-Green alliance would have won?
There is a ceiling on how many LDs would vote Green because someone tells them to do so in the name of 'progressive alliance' or other such disingenuous guff. I suspect this ceiling is markedly lower in traditional Liberal heartlands than in modern urban centres.
I'd consider voting LD in a LD-Lab marginal. I don't think there's any conceivable situation where I'd ever vote Green though.
Caroline Lucas seems at times as much a Lib Dem as a Green.....I dont think there is that much space on some of the big issues
Last night’s Ashford (Kent) by-election suggests a lot of them will, if the Greens are seen as in with a chance. The Greens almost toppled the Tory.
I certainly would. And indeed have.
The relations in parliament are close. Caroline is on her own and the LibDems are effectively her only mates.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
He didn't think the chanting was loud enough
If you look at the video, he looks pretty happy about it.
It is only a matter of time before some white nationalist nutter shoots a Democrat politician. This is not normal political discourse that Trump is encouraging.
Rebel anti Brexit MPs are planning to ask the Queen to attend the next European Council summit as she is entitled to as Head of State and request an extension of Article 50 as a last resort to avoid No Deal (PM Boris of course would have to submit to the Queen as he is only her chief Minister, she is still head of the executive in the UK).
If true appalling, I expect the Duke of Edinburgh would be outraged as much as he is still going in this attempt to force the Queen to do diehard Remainers dirty work. Hopefully she would refuse and insist on a general election if necessary
No chance, the Queen will not get involved personally
It’s PR, not practical politics. The bottom line is that a PM should not be allowed to ignore parliament.
This idea of Remainers asking the Queen to extend Article 50 is the silliest idea since Leavers seriously considered asking the Queen to suspend democracy.
I challenge any Leaver to look at the picture of Johnson and IDS down thread and claim with a straight face that 52% of the country would still be prepared to follow those two into Brexitland?
To my mind, the US 2020 election is terribly simple:
If the bond market and the PMIs are correct, and we enter a recession, then Trump is toast, irrespective of the Democratic nominee.
If the economy returns to the heady days of 2018, when it got a great boost from tax cuts, then he's probably back in, irrespective of his opponent.
If the economy is growing, but only marginally (like now), then two things matter:
1. Where the growth is concentrated 2. Who the Democratic nominee is
Regarding 1, it's worth noting that the rust belt continues to have some of the weakest economic growth in the US. (Annualised, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are practically in recession. Ohio is little better.) The one rust belt state where President Trump can hold out hope is Pennsylvania, which is growing at a solid 2.5% annualised rate.
This disparity between Texas (+6.6% annualised GDP growth) and Iowa (+0.3%) is problematic for the President, as he's probably going to win Texas irrespective, while Iowa is likely to be a close run thing.
2. Some of the Democratic nominees will find it harder than others. But I think it's too easy to say "Oh, America will never vote for a woman" or "coastal liberals are doomed" or somesuch. I certainly think we overestimate candidates relative to the zeitgeist, the economic conditions, and the popularity of the incumbent.
My forecast, then:
The Democrats will not choose Biden or Sanders. But I don't think this matters, because the Republicans will probably lose Arizona, Iowa and Wisconsin to the Democrats. In the candidate is Harris, they'll probably pick up North Carolina (as Obama did). If it is Buttigieg, I think they'll surprise in Indiana and some places that are whiter and more religious. If it's Warren, I think they'll manage Michigan.
A close run thing in 2020, then, but I forecast a Democratic win. (Albeit not a big one.)
Will Trump accept a close defeat, or try to barricade himself in the White House?
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
The best time for a defection to the LibDems would be as soon as their new leader is announced, and in advance of B&R. And, if a Tory, an immediate blow to incoming Bozo.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
I don’t think it will happen but my betting is set up so that if it did happen all my Christmases would come at once.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
He didn't think the chanting was loud enough
If you look at the video, he looks pretty happy about it.
It is only a matter of time before some white nationalist nutter shoots a Democrat politician. This is not normal political discourse that Trump is encouraging.
I didn't realise till this morning that the ASA (Advertising Standards Authority) was the body responsible for getting Theresa May to drop the signs on the side of her vans telling immigrants to go home because it broke their code. It is a pity their remit falls short of political advertising or their bus wouldn't have happened.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
I don’t think it will happen but my betting is set up so that if it did happen all my Christmases would come at once.
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
I don’t think it will happen but my betting is set up so that if it did happen all my Christmases would come at once.
What extreme Remainers don’t realise is just how insanely popular IDS is across the country, and among all ages too.
“Insanely Popular”
18% think IDS is good; 38% think he was terrible; 44% trying to forget.
When YouGov started its ratings, you could explore all the correlations in detail and pull up all the negative comments and demographics on supporters and opponents. What they show now is heavily redacted!
Interestingly the possibility is now being discussed on R4 that Johnson might not become PM because it's possible he won't have the votes to command a majority in the House.
It's only now being discussed? As Alistair says we looked at the possibility a month ago and ordered popcorn in anticipation...
Comments
Ask your pal Boris.
I doubt she will run though
Swinson will narrowly lose her seat to Nicholson despite LD gains from the Tories and Labour in the rest of the UK and be succeeded by Chuka Umunna as LD leader who will hold his seat of Streatham as a LD from Labour in one of the most dramatic results of the night.
You heard it here first!
Lab 25.2%
Con 24.2%
BRX 19.8%
LD 18.0%
Green 6.0%
Baxter:
Lab 251, Con 204, BRX 69, LD 64.
"President Trump on Thursday disavowed the “send her back” chant that broke out at his re-election rally Wednesday night when he railed against a Somali-born congresswoman, as Republicans in Congress rushed to distance themselves and their party from the ugly refrain.
Mr. Trump said he was “not happy” with the chant, directed at Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, a hijab-wearing freshman Democrat whom the president has singled out repeatedly for verbal excoriation. "
He didn't think the chanting was loud enough
https://twitter.com/nelibdems/status/1152001212029403136?s=21
He did claim, for example, that there was more chance he would be struck by an asteroid, than Macron would become French President.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/16/opinion/trump-2020.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
In this case - Neil Kinnock's son.
https://twitter.com/mconway70/status/1151943672738525191
* Hickenlooper: 490
* Bullock: 210
* Baemy KLOBUCHAR: 170
Then think about who got picked in previous races against incumbents:
* Romney: Dull moderate competent former governor
* Kerry: Dull moderate experienced senator
* Dole: Dull moderate experienced senator
* Mondale: Dull moderate former VP, now preeminent KLOBUCHAR stan
Part of this is probably that if there's no competitive race on the incumbent side there are more voters crossing over, so the primary electorate is actually more moderate than it looks.
It feels like there's more than a 1.something percent chance that this race will have the same result as all the previous races.
PS The fact that all these people lost may imply a problem with the strategy proposed by the Moustache of Understanding in that NY piece but arguably it'll still work against Trump.
I'd consider voting LD in a LD-Lab marginal. I don't think there's any conceivable situation where I'd ever vote Green though.
Then there was a lot of dumb bad luck like, particularly the Comey letter coming out when it did.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/meghan-mccain-feels-victimized-by-trumps-attacks-on-omar-youre-taking-away-my-agency-to-criticize-her/
I hope the wine is good.
If the bond market and the PMIs are correct, and we enter a recession, then Trump is toast, irrespective of the Democratic nominee.
If the economy returns to the heady days of 2018, when it got a great boost from tax cuts, then he's probably back in, irrespective of his opponent.
If the economy is growing, but only marginally (like now), then two things matter:
1. Where the growth is concentrated
2. Who the Democratic nominee is
Regarding 1, it's worth noting that the rust belt continues to have some of the weakest economic growth in the US. (Annualised, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are practically in recession. Ohio is little better.) The one rust belt state where President Trump can hold out hope is Pennsylvania, which is growing at a solid 2.5% annualised rate.
This disparity between Texas (+6.6% annualised GDP growth) and Iowa (+0.3%) is problematic for the President, as he's probably going to win Texas irrespective, while Iowa is likely to be a close run thing.
2. Some of the Democratic nominees will find it harder than others. But I think it's too easy to say "Oh, America will never vote for a woman" or "coastal liberals are doomed" or somesuch. I certainly think we overestimate candidates relative to the zeitgeist, the economic conditions, and the popularity of the incumbent.
My forecast, then:
The Democrats will not choose Biden or Sanders. But I don't think this matters, because the Republicans will probably lose Arizona, Iowa and Wisconsin to the Democrats. In the candidate is Harris, they'll probably pick up North Carolina (as Obama did). If it is Buttigieg, I think they'll surprise in Indiana and some places that are whiter and more religious. If it's Warren, I think they'll manage Michigan.
A close run thing in 2020, then, but I forecast a Democratic win. (Albeit not a big one.)
I would note that - of all the Democratic candidates - it seems to be Buttigieg that's followig the Obama organisational playbook.
P.S. @rcs1000 - I think I'm the only other PBer in this time zone at the moment. Laters.
Meadowhall South/Tinsley to Rotherham Central and Rotherham Central to Parkgate to be precise.
Edit: Why aren't you asleep?
2019 hasn't exactly been rich pickings for me, just Parkgate and the Bristol Harbour Railway (and even that was only partially open to the public on Easter Monday!). Hope to have a do at least Ayr to Stranraer, Cardross to Oban, Crianlarich to Mallaig and Falkirk to Alloa in a few weeks' time.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/453838-biden-harris-set-for-second-democratic-debate-showdown
Former Vice President Joe Biden will face off against Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) for a second time on the second night of the CNN Democratic debates in Detroit on July 31....
It would be nice to think that this will not work. That America is better than that.
Luckily for me, that is what I do think.
I certainly would. And indeed have.
The relations in parliament are close. Caroline is on her own and the LibDems are effectively her only mates.
The only way that Johnson will manage to get us out this year is to win an election first.
I do not see an election happening and so I expect this to slide into 2020 and even possibly beyond.
Brexit eh? Whose idea was it in the 1st place? Whoever it was needs to be sent to the naughty step.
(The other 1% are waiting for good news on Diana)
I wonder whether they have anyone lined up?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/24/the-final-step-why-the-leader-of-the-conservative-party-does-not-automatically-become-prime-minister/
And greetings from holidaying Coles on a damp Anglesey, where it is impossible this morning to wave to Mr G on the Great Orme!