politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported b

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

Much of the case for Johnson is based on the fact that he won the London Mayoralty for the Tories in 2008. The capital is seen as strong Labour territory therefore, the argument goes, he’s the man to lead the party when there’s the threat of Labour advancing.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2019
    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1150042346844774401

    'It’s the spirit of solidarity and the working class principle that says: united we are strong.'

    How very true, Jeremy.

    '@tom_watson you are a fucking disgrace'
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    https://youtu.be/n4nKTqSz49E

    Scotland stay with us
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    I haven't seen any steers as to who it might actually be for Foreign Sec, so no bet I think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh dear, data! “Irrelevant” to quote one of the fanboys.

    Meanwhile if the Tory car crash wasn’t diverting enough....

    https://twitter.com/naughtiej/status/1150075310571962368?s=21
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pulpstar said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    I haven't seen any steers as to who it might actually be for Foreign Sec, so no bet I think.
    The silliest name on that stunning list of daft suggestions is Patel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Theuniondivvie said:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1150042346844774401

    'It’s the spirit of solidarity and the working class principle that says: united we are strong.'

    How very true, Jeremy.

    '@tom_watson you are a fucking disgrace'

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1150070307539103744
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Voters nearly 20 times more likely to describe Boris Johnson as ‘buffoon’ than ‘statesman’"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-leadership-boris-johnson-poll-uk-prime-minister-jeremy-hunt-brexit-a9003486.html
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    UK to revoke Article 50 during 2019 5/2
    UK to leave EU with no deal before 1 November 2019 5/2

    (both Ladbrokes)

    So, neck and neck between Revoke and No Deal.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    AndyJS said:

    "Voters nearly 20 times more likely to describe Boris Johnson as ‘buffoon’ than ‘statesman’"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-leadership-boris-johnson-poll-uk-prime-minister-jeremy-hunt-brexit-a9003486.html

    Who knew?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Much of the stance that he is such is more driven by need than evidence.
    That is, he has to be a winner and he has to have a workable plan which has to work, otherwise...

    So you start from that desperately needed outcome and find reasons, rationales, and rationalisations to support it. Because if you believe it hard enough, surely it has to happen, right?

    For the HYUFD-style posts, I find them more plausible if you add in the words "I need to believe that..." at an appropriate place in the post. Put in a "...desperately..." as needed for variability.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Much of the stance that he is such is more driven by need than evidence.
    That is, he has to be a winner and he has to have a workable plan which has to work, otherwise...

    So you start from that desperately needed outcome and find reasons, rationales, and rationalisations to support it. Because if you believe it hard enough, surely it has to happen, right?

    For the HYUFD-style posts, I find them more plausible if you add in the words "I need to believe that..." at an appropriate place in the post. Put in a "...desperately..." as needed for variability.

    The post cognitive dissonance is going to be off the scale.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

    The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.
    Remind us what you think Boris's plan for Northern Ireland is?
    Unlike HYUFD I don't claim to know Boris's plan. I expect it is to reach a deal with the EU if possible and no deal if it isn't.

    Personally I like the idea of using GATT 24 to get a 10 year standstill transition, with the EU's agreement, then use the next decade to come up with solutions for customs and negotiate an FTA.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

    The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.
    Remind us what you think Boris's plan for Northern Ireland is?
    Unlike HYUFD I don't claim to know Boris's plan. I expect it is to reach a deal with the EU if possible and no deal if it isn't.

    Personally I like the idea of using GATT 24 to get a 10 year standstill transition, with the EU's agreement, then use the next decade to come up with solutions for customs and negotiate an FTA.
    “with the EU’s agreement”? Oh, you mean a deal. Good luck with that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

    The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.
    Remind us what you think Boris's plan for Northern Ireland is?
    Unlike HYUFD I don't claim to know Boris's plan. I expect it is to reach a deal with the EU if possible and no deal if it isn't.

    Personally I like the idea of using GATT 24 to get a 10 year standstill transition, with the EU's agreement, then use the next decade to come up with solutions for customs and negotiate an FTA.
    Sounds utterly unnecessary to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    CarlottaVance said:

    Oh dear, data! “Irrelevant” to quote one of the fanboys.

    Meanwhile if the Tory car crash wasn’t diverting enough....

    https://twitter.com/naughtiej/status/1150075310571962368?s=21

    He has clearly forgotten how badly Corbyn treated Thangam Debbonaire when he sacked her as she was going through treatment for cancer.

    The only f*cking disgraces are Len and Jezza

    I have v little time for Watson, but on this he is right to keep pushing. I would prefer more direct action - but he is doing 'something' even though it isn't enough
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    StuartDickson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

    The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.
    Remind us what you think Boris's plan for Northern Ireland is?
    Unlike HYUFD I don't claim to know Boris's plan. I expect it is to reach a deal with the EU if possible and no deal if it isn't.

    Personally I like the idea of using GATT 24 to get a 10 year standstill transition, with the EU's agreement, then use the next decade to come up with solutions for customs and negotiate an FTA.
    “with the EU’s agreement”? Oh, you mean a deal. Good luck with that.
    Yes I mean a deal. It has been my unwavering opinion all along that the EU wants a deal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    LOL. Incredible that he's got this far really.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example

    No party is winning a majority in that poll. 32% will not win a majority in reality since opposition will consolidate during a campaign. If you really believe someone is going to win a majority on 32% then I have a bridge to sell you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1150081903569055744

    I see one of the leaflets on that table says 'No to a National Government'.

    I wonder if the Left are getting just a bit worried that this might be looking more likely than it was.

    Bizarrely it follows a statement saying 'Trigger ballots now' etc etc. Reselect etc.

    Do they not see one might lead to the other?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    I mean in the referendum. The majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, because they wanted to remain in the UK. To put that down to them being Indy at heart but being cowed into the voting booth by George Osborne's threats is a deeply patronising assertion.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Mayor of London in calling for more funding for London shocker.

    In tomorrow's press we find the shocking news that Plaid Cymru have called for funds to be spent in Wales and the bizarre news that the DUP wants funds spent in Northern Ireland? Can you believe it!?

    I have heard rumours, unsubstantiated no doubt, that the First Minister of Scotland wants funding for Scotland. No doubt you'll deny this insane heresy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example

    No party is winning a majority in that poll. 32% will not win a majority in reality since opposition will consolidate during a campaign. If you really believe someone is going to win a majority on 32% then I have a bridge to sell you.
    It will as that 17% for the LDs is rock solid, it will not vote for Corbyn Labour this time while that 14% for the Brexit Party may still be squeezed further by Boris
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    https://youtu.be/n4nKTqSz49E

    Scotland stay with us

    No chance
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example

    No party is winning a majority in that poll. 32% will not win a majority in reality since opposition will consolidate during a campaign. If you really believe someone is going to win a majority on 32% then I have a bridge to sell you.
    It will as that 17% for the LDs is rock solid, it will not vote for Corbyn Labour this time while that 14% for the Brexit Party may still be squeezed further by Boris
    Nothing is rock solid, especially once campaigning begins constituency by constituency. LD voters in Labour/Tory marginals may decide to vote tactically.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1150050438705758208
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example

    No party is winning a majority in that poll. 32% will not win a majority in reality since opposition will consolidate during a campaign. If you really believe someone is going to win a majority on 32% then I have a bridge to sell you.
    It will as that 17% for the LDs is rock solid, it will not vote for Corbyn Labour this time while that 14% for the Brexit Party may still be squeezed further by Boris
    Nothing is rock solid, especially once campaigning begins constituency by constituency. LD voters in Labour/Tory marginals may decide to vote tactically.
    Some may still but less than in 2017 and Boris can still win a Tory majority even if it is not certain.

    What is certain is May or Hunt definitely cannot win a Tory majority
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election

    With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%

    With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%

    So PM Farage

    Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.

    I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
    Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
    As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
    I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
    The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.

    Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.

    It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.

    In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:

    (a) an absolute boon for the SNP
    (b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour

    "The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half."
    I don't think so. If I, as a demiurge, were to distribute votes to maximise (say) the number of Conservative MPs, I would sprinkle them around with just enough to win in as many constituencies as possible. And I agree that there would be zero votes in the losing constituencies. The winners would have perhaps between 25% and 35% in the other constituencies.



  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    I mean in the referendum. The majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, because they wanted to remain in the UK. To put that down to them being Indy at heart but being cowed into the voting booth by George Osborne's threats is a deeply patronising assertion.
    Worse its mental
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sorry OGH but I disagree

    In 2012 for example Boris won the London Mayoral election over Livingstone 51.5% to 48.5% when Cameron lost the local elections nationally to Ed Miliband's Labour 31% to 38%.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_London_mayoral_election
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    In 2016 it was Boris who was the key figurehead for the Vote Leave campaign when they beat Cameron's Remain campaign.

    As Comres has shown this month Boris is the only Tory who can win a majority at the next general election, with May or Hunt it would be a Corbyn minority government

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1148312432768684032?s=20

    The Brexit Party are also a bigger threat to the Tories than the LDs, over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections compared to 12% who voted LD. The LDs are more a threat to Labour than the Tories, with the LDs winning a majority of Labour seats in London and many university towns and cities in the European elections for example

    No party is winning a majority in that poll. 32% will not win a majority in reality since opposition will consolidate during a campaign. If you really believe someone is going to win a majority on 32% then I have a bridge to sell you.
    It will as that 17% for the LDs is rock solid, it will not vote for Corbyn Labour this time while that 14% for the Brexit Party may still be squeezed further by Boris
    Nothing is rock solid, especially once campaigning begins constituency by constituency. LD voters in Labour/Tory marginals may decide to vote tactically.
    Maybe they're diehard?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
    Moot point given Strathclyde does not exist
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    I mean in the referendum. The majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, because they wanted to remain in the UK. To put that down to them being Indy at heart but being cowed into the voting booth by George Osborne's threats is a deeply patronising assertion.
    Worse its mental
    It's being comfortable with how things are. I don't think that's particular mental.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    Now I really know you are totally unhinged. No sane person could even contemplate that never mind put it in print.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    So, Mundell looks like history.

    Ruth was put in place by David Cameron, with some very dodgy moves behind the scenes that a lot of SCons have neither forgotten nor forgiven. She could not continue in post without PM Johnson’s support.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    I mean in the referendum. The majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, because they wanted to remain in the UK. To put that down to them being Indy at heart but being cowed into the voting booth by George Osborne's threats is a deeply patronising assertion.
    Worse its mental
    It's being comfortable with how things are. I don't think that's particular mental.
    Him thinking anybody that supported independence but voted to suit Osborne tells me he is not the full tattie.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
    Moot point given Strathclyde does not exist
    Soon to be PM Johnson clearly doesn’t know that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
    Strathclyde is rock solid anti Tory on the whole, Labour held the old Strathclyde council area throughout its existence from 1974 to 1994.

    There are a handful of patches where the Tories can win e.g. East Renfrewshire (the wealthiest Glasgow suburb) and Ayrshire as you say but no more than that and Mundell's seat is more Scottish borders than Strathclyde anyway
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Philip_Thompson said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.

    The union with Brussels is dead. You still haven't accepted that.
    Remind us what you think Boris's plan for Northern Ireland is?
    Unlike HYUFD I don't claim to know Boris's plan. I expect it is to reach a deal with the EU if possible and no deal if it isn't.

    Personally I like the idea of using GATT 24 to get a 10 year standstill transition, with the EU's agreement, then use the next decade to come up with solutions for customs and negotiate an FTA.
    “with the EU’s agreement”? Oh, you mean a deal. Good luck with that.
    Yes I mean a deal. It has been my unwavering opinion all along that the EU wants a deal.
    Hardly a stunning insight since they thought they had a deal, negotiated with the full agreement of HMG and everything. They're just not interested in the type of deal that your preferred politicans favour.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    edited July 2019
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Just
    playing
    with the new
    formatting possibilities
    in Vanilla comments da da da
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    malcolmg said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
    Moot point given Strathclyde does not exist
    Was told yesterday that a senior Cabinet minister was certain that there was a county named the Lake District.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    So, Mundell looks like history.

    Ruth was put in place by David Cameron, with some very dodgy moves behind the scenes that a lot of SCons have neither forgotten nor forgiven. She could not continue in post without PM Johnson’s support.
    Boris I suspect would allow her one more Westminster and Holyrood election, if she flops in 2021 she would be out even with the membership
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited July 2019
    The Labour Party continues to disgust me on a daily basis. Quite the feat.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2019
    Good evening PB. :)

    I noticed on the previous threas that @Roger was casting aspersions about my "support" for Boris but I'm just going to rise above it! :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2019
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    I tend to agree that Remainerism (if it can be said to have a centrally driving intelligence) has utterly failed to come up with a compelling appeal to those who voted for Brexit.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    I mean in the referendum. The majority of Scots voted to remain in the UK, because they wanted to remain in the UK. To put that down to them being Indy at heart but being cowed into the voting booth by George Osborne's threats is a deeply patronising assertion.
    Worse its mental
    It's being comfortable with how things are. I don't think that's particular mental.
    Him thinking anybody that supported independence but voted to suit Osborne tells me he is not the full tattie.
    Oh, I see. Well, not sure I agree with your verdict on Phillip Thomson's mental state, but I agree his assertion was wrong.

    I think all three of us probably agree that in practical terms, Scottish independence could probably work. I just think it would be a pity.

    Scotland is my adopted homeland and for me (though I love England and I'm unabashedly proud to be English) it is Britain's overacheiver and has provided the cream of its businesses, politicians, cultural highlights and scenic and architectural beauty. And in turn, Britain has been the stage upon which they have shone and prospered. It is a good relationship and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    Well, yes. I'm sure he's mystified as to why more people haven't flocked to such a charming message.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    I tend to agree that Remainerism (if it can be said to have a centrally driving intelligence) has utterly failed to come up with a compelling appeal to those who voted for Brexit.
    It isn't going to win over Faragists in the Shires, or Tommy Robinson supporters in the cities, but there are a body of softer Leavers who have shifted and also some likelihood of differential turnout. It is the main reason Leavers oppose a further referendum, because they suspect that they will lose.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    I tend to agree that Remainerism (if it can be said to have a centrally driving intelligence) has utterly failed to come up with a compelling appeal to those who voted for Brexit.
    In the spirit of détente I would also add that the reverse is true and Leavers have generally offered no reasons why Remain voters should swing behind the result.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election.

    There are few if any Tories in Strathclyde anyway and indeed Strathclyde voted majority Yes in 2014 too, notice Boris said investment in London would also bring jobs to Strathclyde anyway
    Con MPs Paul Masterton, Bill Grant and David Mundell might be evidence of one or two Tories in Strathclyde.
    Strathclyde is rock solid anti Tory on the whole, Labour held the old Strathclyde council area throughout its existence from 1974 to 1994.

    There are a handful of patches where the Tories can win e.g. East Renfrewshire (the wealthiest Glasgow suburb) and Ayrshire as you say but no more than that and Mundell's seat is more Scottish borders than Strathclyde anyway
    Also south ayrshire is their only hope , north and east will not be Tory for sure.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary
    Provided he can hold his booze and keep his hands to himself.....

    And the heavies off his ex-

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/3851181/ross-thomson-grope-aberdeen-westminster-commons-douglas-mathewson/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    edited July 2019
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    Well, yes. I'm sure he's mystified as to why more people haven't flocked to such a charming message.
    It's based on two other more covertly delivered messages: that actually you can't leave because we are so deeply in you don't really have a choice, and secondly that risk is always wrong.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    So, Mundell looks like history.

    Ruth was put in place by David Cameron, with some very dodgy moves behind the scenes that a lot of SCons have neither forgotten nor forgiven. She could not continue in post without PM Johnson’s support.
    America, meet your new ambassador. Translation services available.

    Solves a lot of problems for Boris.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    I was being somewhat facetious in reply to the "stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine" remark.

    Though if you vote BNP because you hate foreigners or something similar then you should be ashamed of that.
    Snip
    Worse its mental
    It's being comfortable with how things are. I don't think that's particular mental.
    Him thinking anybody that supported independence but voted to suit Osborne tells me he is not the full tattie.
    Oh, I see. Well, not sure I agree with your verdict on Phillip Thomson's mental state, but I agree his assertion was wrong.

    I think all three of us probably agree that in practical terms, Scottish independence could probably work. I just think it would be a pity.

    Scotland is my adopted homeland and for me (though I love England and I'm unabashedly proud to be English) it is Britain's overacheiver and has provided the cream of its businesses, politicians, cultural highlights and scenic and architectural beauty. And in turn, Britain has been the stage upon which they have shone and prospered. It is a good relationship and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
    Nothing wrong with being proud to be English. It is no longer a good relationship in any way , Scotland is treated badly by the English parliament in Westminster, overdue a parting of the ways. Currently it is like an abusive marriage.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    I tend to agree that Remainerism (if it can be said to have a centrally driving intelligence) has utterly failed to come up with a compelling appeal to those who voted for Brexit.
    It isn't going to win over Faragists in the Shires, or Tommy Robinson supporters in the cities, but there are a body of softer Leavers who have shifted and also some likelihood of differential turnout. It is the main reason Leavers oppose a further referendum, because they suspect that they will lose.

    ... there are a body ...
    gin a body meet a body

    p.s. There are a handful of patches where the Tories can win - HYUFD
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Foxy said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    I tend to agree that Remainerism (if it can be said to have a centrally driving intelligence) has utterly failed to come up with a compelling appeal to those who voted for Brexit.
    It isn't going to win over Faragists in the Shires, or Tommy Robinson supporters in the cities, but there are a body of softer Leavers who have shifted and also some likelihood of differential turnout. It is the main reason Leavers oppose a further referendum, because they suspect that they will lose.

    It's a mistake to think anyone has changed their view of the EU or the rightness or otherwise of leaving. I think what we're seeing is pessimism about the outcome in the face of what appears to be the complete failure of Britain's politicians to arrange Brexit. I have not tracked the figures, but it has seemed to me that whenever we have seen a period of warmer media current on Brexit, that small remain gain has melted and reversed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    So, Mundell looks like history.

    Ruth was put in place by David Cameron, with some very dodgy moves behind the scenes that a lot of SCons have neither forgotten nor forgiven. She could not continue in post without PM Johnson’s support.
    Boris I suspect would allow her one more Westminster and Holyrood election, if she flops in 2021 she would be out even with the membership
    WTF!?

    It's not about anyone "allowing" anything. Ruth was independently elected and has her own mandate.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary to Mundell and would appeal to Scottish Brexit Party voters more too (or even Mundell's son who has now endorsed Boris), Davidson's position is elected by Scottish party members so I don't think Boris can sack her
    So, Mundell looks like history.

    Ruth was put in place by David Cameron, with some very dodgy moves behind the scenes that a lot of SCons have neither forgotten nor forgiven. She could not continue in post without PM Johnson’s support.
    Boris I suspect would allow her one more Westminster and Holyrood election, if she flops in 2021 she would be out even with the membership
    WTF!?

    It's not about anyone "allowing" anything. Ruth was independently elected and has her own mandate.
    Ha!
    mandate .. man date

    I think not
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    One of the essential problems Leavers face is that they have been unable to forge a consensus for their project in large part because they campaigned on a platform of frightening voters into believing that millions of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain. Leavers may not feel ashamed about that but at some point they will need to recognise that their disgraceful behaviour then forms a big part of their problem now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    Well, yes. I'm sure he's mystified as to why more people haven't flocked to such a charming message.
    In case you hadn’t noticed, the polls consistently show that more people now believe the decision to Leave was a mistake. The death cult have got more extreme in response as they seek to drag the country out of the EU on hostile terms against its better judgement,
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    geoffw said:

    Just
    playing
    with the new
    formatting possibilities
    in Vanilla comments da da da

    How on earth
    did you do
    that!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Barnesian said:

    geoffw said:

    Just
    playing
    with the new
    formatting possibilities
    in Vanilla comments da da da

    How on earth
    did you do
    that!
    Pascal's
    triangle should
    be a veritable doddle.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary
    Provided he can hold his booze and keep his hands to himself.....

    And the heavies off his ex-

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/3851181/ross-thomson-grope-aberdeen-westminster-commons-douglas-mathewson/
    He should have been drummed out , only the Tories would support such a bad un. He will be a perfect one for Boris. If that clown is Scottish secretary you know the union is bust for certain.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    The revulsion will not be confined to the left and liberals. In London, he promoted himself as a rather different kind of conservative. It will not be forgotten.

    When Shadsy puts up the GE Constituency odds, Uxbridge will be the first one I check out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
    Right liberals might though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    London as a whole is now firmly anti Tory and firmly Remain and anti Brexit, the latest Yougov has the LDs leading in London on 29% with Labour second on 23% and the Tories third on only 19% but the Tories still lead across GB as a whole in the same poll on 24% with the Brexit Party second on 21%, Labour on 20% and the LDs on 19%.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/12/voting-intention-con-24-brex-21-lab-20-lib-dem-19-

    Boris needed to appeal to Londoners to become London Mayor, he does not to become to UK PM on the whole however Uxbridge is in Hillingdon which was one of only 5 London boroughs out of 32 which voted Leave in the EU referendum so he will likely hold his seat regardless
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
    Right liberals might though.
    But right on liberals won't.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    malcolmg said:


    Nothing wrong with being proud to be English. It is no longer a good relationship in any way , Scotland is treated badly by the English parliament in Westminster, overdue a parting of the ways. Currently it is like an abusive marriage.

    Politics is full of failure and crappy outcomes, but I'm realising it's a mistake to perceive malice where what exists is actually just confusion. I'm not going to lose my rag over Juncker (for example), I like him, the man is just doing a job.

    I'm glad Britain is coming out of the EU, but I no longer think we needed to be to be out of it to be successful. We needed (and I'm optimimistic we will get) leaders that believed in a positive vision of Britain. Without that, in or out, we will decline.

    Similarly, in Scotland's case, to believe that the relationship between Scotland and Britain is abusive is to deny Scotland and Scottish peoples' power within that relationship, which is immense - far greater than Britain's power within the EU ever was. At any point, those failures can be righted and politics in the UK can be transformed, by Nichola Sturgeon, or anyone else with a mind to do it, using the existing institutions and frameworks.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
    Right liberals might though.
    Only if they back Brexit like Boris
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Corbyn is left

    Farage is right

    Davey in the centre

    But according to @HYUFD polls, Boris will be in charge !

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    I haven't seen any steers as to who it might actually be for Foreign Sec, so no bet I think.
    What happens if Hunt is reappointed? Otherwise, I think we can probably rule out most of that lot so there might be some value among the outsiders. No time to think about it now though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    HYUFD said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Ask Ruth Davidson if Boris is an electoral asset.

    https://youtu.be/9N2AlpxRY9c

    Given the Brexit Party beat Ruth Davidson's Tories in Scotland in the European Parliament elections let alone the SNP she needs Boris more than Boris needs her now if Scottish Tories are going to maintain their vote at the next general election
    I wonder if he’ll sack her.
    Ross Thompson would be a good successor as Scottish Secretary
    Provided he can hold his booze and keep his hands to himself.....

    And the heavies off his ex-

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/3851181/ross-thomson-grope-aberdeen-westminster-commons-douglas-mathewson/
    He should have been drummed out , only the Tories would support such a bad un. He will be a perfect one for Boris. If that clown is Scottish secretary you know the union is bust for certain.
    Given 51% of Remainers now back Yes according to Curtice but 64% of Leavers still back No it is mainly Leavers who will save the Union and Boris and Thomson help get them largely behind the Tories and away from the Brexit Party

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn is left

    Farage is right

    Davey in the centre

    But according to @HYUFD polls, Boris will be in charge !

    This is getting out of hand :o
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    Without commenting on FS specifically but Cox, Mordaunt, Stewart, Gove, Javid and Fallon would all be credible cabinet ministers
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
    Right liberals might though.
    Only if they back Brexit like Boris
    No you are reading far too much into the situation which is fluid. A lot can change between now and then and its entirely possible that Brexit at the next election may not be that big of a deal just like by 2005 the Iraq War wasn't forefront anymore.

    Right now pro-Brexit is when tensions are at their highest. But there are so many scenarios possible from here and each of them plays out differently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    tpfkar said:

    Foxy said:

    On Boris winning London in 2008, not only was it a time that the Tories were point well, but it was also at the height of Cameron's detoxification.

    Boris won London as a socially liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration internationaist, the very opposite of the f**k business nativism that he now espouses. He wouldn't come close to winning now, and it is quite possible that he will lose his own seat.

    That’s a crucial point - the Boris of 2008 and indeed 2012 wasn’t reviled by the left and liberals as he is now. He’s a great recruitment sergeant for LDs and I imagine Labour too. Really not scared by campaigning against him or Hunt for that matter - Stewart and Javid would have been the tricky ones.
    Left liberals ate not going to vote for the Tories at the next general election whoever leads them, some Brexit Party voters might but only if Boris is Tory leader
    Right liberals might though.
    Only if they back Brexit like Boris
    No you are reading far too much into the situation which is fluid. A lot can change between now and then and its entirely possible that Brexit at the next election may not be that big of a deal just like by 2005 the Iraq War wasn't forefront anymore.

    Right now pro-Brexit is when tensions are at their highest. But there are so many scenarios possible from here and each of them plays out differently.
    Though even in 2005 the biggest move was Labour to LD because of the Iraq War
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 664
    Let's keep the use of whacky formatting and oversized fonts to a minimum.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    PBModerator said:

    Let's keep the use of whacky formatting and oversized fonts to a minimum.

    But whacky views and oversized opinions still very much welcome.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    edited July 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:


    Oh boo hoo.

    You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.

    If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
    The difference between Leaves and Scots is that we dismissed Project Fear. You [Scots collectively] fell for it.

    Both sets of Project Fear were IMHO utter garbage, both sets of government propaganda [on both sides in the Scottish case] were pretty garbage and media bias cuts both ways and is standard. But only one side let Project Fear win. Shame on them.
    Why should anyone be ashamed for any way they voted? What a ridiculous statement.
    The whole Remainer campaign both before and after the 2016 vote has been based on trying to tell Leave voters they should be ashamed of how they voted. See the endless posts from Mr Meeks as example.
    Well, yes. I'm sure he's mystified as to why more people haven't flocked to such a charming message.
    In case you hadn’t noticed, the polls consistently show that more people now believe the decision to Leave was a mistake. The death cult have got more extreme in response as they seek to drag the country out of the EU on hostile terms against its better judgement,
    On the contrary, what has been shown is that in the face of a chicken licken/Jacob Marley/Scream by Munch meltdown by much of our political class about the HUGE DIFFICULTIES AND INEVITABLE CHAOS AND DOOM of leaving an organisation that does not so much as keep the streets swept, there has been embarrassingly little movement in polling.

    Furthermore, the emphasis being so loaded on to the doom of leaving, rather than the benefits of staying (chortle), means that unless Leave is a disaster on the mythical scale that has been promised, any advantage for remain that may be have been gained utterly vanishes when we leave and life on earth survives.

    As, subconsciously or consciously, remain campaigners realise this, the stories have to get more and more outlandish and doom-laden for fear that we leave. The whole thing is an undedifying mess. And then the same people complain about the lack of respect for politics...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I think it’s time for quiet reflection and let’s give the world a little time to settle down . That world is not brexit, that’s a local skirmish the real world faces problems in the Gulf, a potential global recession and the minor issue of climate change let’s start measuring our politicians against a few higher standards that the are currently getting away with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    London as a whole is now firmly anti Tory and firmly Remain and anti Brexit

    The legacy of Boris?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    I have been away all afternoon taking my daughter and family to Manchester Airport for their early morning holiday flight and on putting on Sky news I am confronted with a foul mouthed Len McCluskey giving a full on attack against Tom Watson at the Durham Miners rally.

    How far can labour sink into the cesspool before the sensible labour mps resign the whip en masse and form their own grouping

    Any labour mp who does not take drastic action is complicit in the depths the labour leadership has sunk too

    It is sad for decent labour supporters and terrible for the Country
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    London as a whole is now firmly anti Tory and firmly Remain and anti Brexit

    The legacy of Boris?
    The legacy of Brexit but of course had Boris not backed Brexit he would almost certainly not be a near certainty to be Tory leader and PM now
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I have been away all afternoon taking my daughter and family to Manchester Airport for their early morning holiday flight and on putting on Sky news I am confronted with a foul mouthed Len McCluskey giving a full on attack against Tom Watson at the Durham Miners rally.

    For those who haven't seen him:

    https://twitter.com/DoubleDownNews/status/1150087171279376384
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Charles said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    Without commenting on FS specifically but Cox, Mordaunt, Stewart, Gove, Javid and Fallon would all be credible cabinet ministers
    Agree. And Patel was in May's cabinet, though admittedly she's taken some tumbles.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Gardenwalker said:

    PBModerator said:

    Let's keep the use of whacky formatting and oversized fonts to a minimum.

    But whacky views and oversized opinions still very much welcome.
    Indispensable I'd say!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    I see PB has finally made it to 1995. Excellent! Now somebody write my a Python script to scrape data from the British Newspaper Archive... :(

    This text uses the bold tag
    This text uses the strong tag
    This text uses the italic tag
    This text uses the emphasized tag
    This text uses the small tag
    This text uses the mark tag
    This text uses the del tag
    This text uses the ins tag

    https://www.w3schools.com/html/html_formatting.asp
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Charles said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Lord help us. If you thought May had a piss-poor Cabinet, behold and weep.

    Next Foreign Secretary - Shadsy

    Jacob Rees-Mogg 3/1
    Geoffrey Cox 6/1
    Priti Patel 7/1
    Penny Mordaunt 8/1
    Rory Stewart 8/1
    Michael Gove 10/1
    Sajid Javid 12/1
    David Davis 16/1
    Michael Fallon 16/1
    Dominic Raab 16/1
    Emily Thornberry 16/1

    Without commenting on FS specifically but Cox, Mordaunt, Stewart, Gove, Javid and Fallon would all be credible cabinet ministers
    My Osborne pick seems disfavoured.
This discussion has been closed.