If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
The end user is paying 2% more. Which is exactly what we target.
If products are priced in Euros, we have to pay 30% more Sterling for the same thing. What part of that do you fail to understand?
Products aren't priced in Euros. Consumers get paid in Sterling and buy goods in shops priced in Sterling.
We measure the change in these prices and the change is 2.0% not 30%. What part of that do you fail to understand?
Have you seen Apple’s Sterling denominated prices recently?
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
So your comment that you as a consumer feel poorer was false then.
No. I said overall we are poorer and that I personally feel significantly poorer.
So just saying stuff for effect then without any basis in fact. Glad we cleared that up.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Depends what the product is you are talking about! I think to be fair you need a basket of goods rather than individual items. I have noticed goods rocket in price since 2016 and have stopped buying them as a result but some of these products are uk made under licience.
Gee what a great idea!
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Labour's official policy is that if Corbyn is PM, they're pro Leave.
I would not say that 'pro Leave' is an accurate way of putting it. I would describe it as being pro Remain.
Like this -
Negotiate a (very) soft Brexit. Which means the WA as is, plus the PD amended for permanent CU and SM. Will not take long to do that.
Ref2 on this versus Remain. PM allows Labour campaigning on either side. The Wilson 1975 precedent. Most campaign for Remain.
The Leave campaign is insipid since the Leave option is not 'proper Leave'. It's a fix!
Remain wins 60/40 minimum.
Labour official policy if in government is to renegotiate the WA and then allow a referendum on it. Which side they officially campaign for (if either) will then depend on the nature of the Deal. Since the EU won't renegotiate, it is anyone's guess what they'd actually do since they've already rubbished it as a "Tory Brexit". Most likely secure some changes to the political declaration and claim victory. I have no clue how a referendum would then play out, but either way Labour are not currently anything you could categorise as Pro Remain.
Does Ms Truss think Mrs May gives a flying fiddle for what she thinks?
I dont follow the logic. There is a vacancy now therefore the PM now has an absolute right to make an appointment now, I would have thought. While we all know the PM will be changing soon why should an important ambassador ship wait until then? Especially as the decision is surely not one that will be decided based on petty politics .
The logic is the words used: "The Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Office has been clear that this is a job that is going to take months rather than weeks to recruit for."
In evidence to MPs he said that was the “standard process” but of course the Washington post could be filled by a “bespoke process”.
Could be, but should it be? Or should the standard process be used?
If the standard process took a week then it would be reasonable for May to fill it even if its her final act. There doesn't seem to be any justification not to use the standard process here though.
Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:
LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7) CON: 26.6% (-44.5) YORK: 11.4% (+11.4) UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4) LAB: 4.4% (-24.5) IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1) IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5) IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
Shocking result for the conservatives and labour
But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.
I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah
Last night I was knocking up in Chigwell Row where the Tories held the seat 344 votes to 288 for the LDs in a parish council by elections and I spent a lot of time telling Brexit Party voters 'Boris is on the way' and it was a straight Tory v LD fight to get enough of them out to vote Tory
The problem is that momentum is moving to remain and there are an increasing number of voters who see the Lib Dems as the one party who have been consistent in wanting to stop brexit and voters from both the conservatives and labour are turning to them.
I also think that many labour voters now turning to the Lib Dems will be moving permanently as they turn their backs on the toxic leadership of the labour party
Boris is not even beating Hunt in the preferred PM stakes with voters and this weeks disasterous PR for Boris over the Ambassador shows he cannot think on his feet
He is not the Messiah and is a very long way from a majority
I believe HYUFD has a point that Brexit/Tories combined numbers are interchangeable either way. What I cannot factor into the equation is how many Tories would peel off and vote LD for one time only in order to see the back of Brexit and Johnsin before returning to the fold once the dust had settled.
The question is, would you do that, possibly saving your party for the longer term?
Yes
Now that is very interesting and a pissible game changer.
Sure that is a spelling mistake !!!!
Fat fingers on a smartphone I think, although who knows my thought processes at my time of life?
Tell me about it. The number of posts I've accidentally marked as "off topic" because of proximity to the quote button...
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
So your comment that you as a consumer feel poorer was false then.
No. I said overall we are poorer and that I personally feel significantly poorer.
In which case, your circumstances are unusual.
Sterling is worth about half what it was against the dollar in 1967, but we're still far richer per head than we were in 1967.
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Actually I got my Economics degree from a red brick university.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
Depends what the product is you are talking about! I think to be fair you need a basket of goods rather than individual items. I have noticed goods rocket in price since 2016 and have stopped buying them as a result but some of these products are uk made under licience.
Gee what a great idea!
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
There's probably no link between inflation and exchange rates. I'm sure someone would have noticed by now if there was.
Interest rates are probably independent of both. Economics is so simple!
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it ha.</%blockquote>
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Depends what the product is you are talking about! I think to be fair you need a basket of goods rather than individual items. I have noticed goods rocket in price since 2016 and have stopped buying them as a result but some of these products are uk made under licience.
Gee what a great idea!
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
lol - I mean imported goods not the type of basket used for general measures of inflation.
Mind you your attitude is the economy will look after itself and tough luck to anyone who is put out of work, experiences being made homeless or relationships fail due to economic hardship. Life is a lesson, your cavalier approach to others welfare is just willing the possibilty of what might happen to others on yourself. You never know what is around the corner. Life can always get worse even when it seems you have hit rock bottom.
I know it's been said before, but a government of national unity is simply not going to happen. Those who think it might are arguing by what they want or think ought to happen - always a fatal mistake in political betting or forecasting. Where on earth could the support for such a government come from? Not from the ERG, Boris supporters or most Conservative MPs. Not from Corbyn and his circle and therefore the Labour Party as a whole, or from any more than a handful of Labour MPs. It just ain't gonna happen. If the next Tory leader loses a VONC, there will be an election.
She is right, she isn't a political journo. What is she then? Oh, yes a polemicist, just like Boris. Maybe she hopes she has spotted a career path. After all, Boris will prove you don't need management or leadership capability to become PM. You just need to write a load of shit for several years that appeals to the lowest prejudice. She is very well qualified
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
"The pound in your pocket has not been devalued..."
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Actually I got my Economics degree from a red brick university.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
I thought it was okay to ignore ‘experts’ now? Or does that only apply when its things you don’t agree with?
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Actually I got my Economics degree from a red brick university.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
Amazing how one can forget a University education so rapidly.
Labour's official policy is that if Corbyn is PM, they're pro Leave.
I would not say that 'pro Leave' is an accurate way of putting it. I would describe it as being pro Remain.
Like this -
Negotiate a (very) soft Brexit. Which means the WA as is, plus the PD amended for permanent CU and SM. Will not take long to do that.
Ref2 on this versus Remain. PM allows Labour campaigning on either side. The Wilson 1975 precedent. Most campaign for Remain.
The Leave campaign is insipid since the Leave option is not 'proper Leave'. It's a fix!
Remain wins 60/40 minimum.
Labour official policy if in government is to renegotiate the WA and then allow a referendum on it. Which side they officially campaign for (if either) will then depend on the nature of the Deal. Since the EU won't renegotiate, it is anyone's guess what they'd actually do since they've already rubbished it as a "Tory Brexit". Most likely secure some changes to the political declaration and claim victory. I have no clue how a referendum would then play out, but either way Labour are not currently anything you could categorise as Pro Remain.
Labour will not win aGE it’s problems go far deeper than Brexit and keep getting worse.
I know it's been said before, but a government of national unity is simply not going to happen. Those who think it might are arguing by what they want or think ought to happen - always a fatal mistake in political betting or forecasting. Where on earth could the support for such a government come from? Not from the ERG, Boris supporters or most Conservative MPs. Not from Corbyn and his circle and therefore the Labour Party as a whole, or from any more than a handful of Labour MPs. It just ain't gonna happen. If the next Tory leader loses a VONC, there will be an election.
She is right, she isn't a political journo. What is she then? Oh, yes a polemicist, just like Boris. Maybe she hopes she has spotted a career path. After all, Boris will prove you don't need management or leadership capability to become PM. You just need to write a load of shit for several years that appeals to the lowest prejudice. She is very well qualified
She would be well advised to ask herself why her great party has been reduced to giving the clearly not-fit-for-highest-office Johnson a landslide based on nationalistic waffle and blatant lie about No Deal in October.
Depends what the product is you are talking about! I think to be fair you need a basket of goods rather than individual items. I have noticed goods rocket in price since 2016 and have stopped buying them as a result but some of these products are uk made under licience.
Gee what a great idea!
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
lol - I mean imported goods not the type of basket used for general measures of inflation.
Mind you your attitude is the economy will look after itself and tough luck to anyone who is put out of work, experiences being made homeless or relationships fail due to economic hardship. Life is a lesson, your cavalier approach to others welfare is just willing the possibilty of what might happen to others on yourself. You never know what is around the corner. Life can always get worse even when it seems you have hit rock bottom.
A rounded basket is surely more appropriate than an imported-only basket. Especially given imports can and often do compete against domestic goods and produce.
I have never once said "tough luck", I support having a safety net for those who go through hardships.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Unless of course you have to pay for something in Euros, in which case it is going to cost you 30% more than it did before the referendum. How is that not bad?
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
Except aren't DB pension schemes valued/assessed against gilt rates and not their actual investments? Gilt rates are dire.
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Actually I got my Economics degree from a red brick university.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
I thought it was okay to ignore ‘experts’ now? Or does that only apply when its things you don’t agree with?
I don't think he is an expert in the subject. I believe there are lots of "universities" all round the world that are built of red bricks now, lol.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
"The pound in your pocket has not been devalued..."
Mine has but I do chose to live in the euro zone with a GBP income.
Lets get a basket of goods, and compare the prices of them one year to what those prices were a year ago. We should get a balanced basket of goods and keep an eye on that. What a fantastic way to measure the change of prices, why has nobody thought of that before?
Oh dear. Philip Thompson, reader in economics at the University for Simplistic Thinking, gives lecture on inflation when the topic for discussion was exchange rates.
Actually I got my Economics degree from a red brick university.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
I thought it was okay to ignore ‘experts’ now? Or does that only apply when its things you don’t agree with?
'so-called experts who consistently get things wrong' can be ignored yes.
Basic statistical evidence, not so much. You're the one trying to ignore the evidence to suit your warped agenda.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I think he lives abroad and has his expenses in Euros, although I could be mistaken. Either way this is (part of) why expats voted Remain in huge numbers.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
The end user is paying 2% more. Which is exactly what we target.
If products are priced in Euros, we have to pay 30% more Sterling for the same thing. What part of that do you fail to understand?
I see there is already spanking going on for this.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Unless of course you have to pay for something in Euros, in which case it is going to cost you 30% more than it did before the referendum. How is that not bad?
I'll keep an eye out for how many products are priced in Euros next time I go to Morrisons.
With the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landings on the Moon imminent, I thought I'd share the time the Russians got hold of a (boilreplate) Apollo capsule, allegedly courtesy of the Royal Navy:
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
So your comment that you as a consumer feel poorer was false then.
No. I said overall we are poorer and that I personally feel significantly poorer.
In which case, your circumstances are unusual.
Sterling is worth about half what it was against the dollar in 1967, but we're still far richer per head than we were in 1967.
PB posters are unusual, to put it politely: Remainer and Leaver alike. We are older, richer (with some extraordinary outliers), more likely to have revenue streams from non-sterling sources, extraordinarily more likely to have property, time, jobs or passports abroad, extraordinarily more likely to be a member of a political party, and politically well informed to the point of nerdery.
So when @Gallowgate tells you that he is significantly poorer, that is not implausible.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Unless of course you have to pay for something in Euros, in which case it is going to cost you 30% more than it did before the referendum. How is that not bad?
I'll keep an eye out for how many products are priced in Euros next time I go to Morrisons.
Going on in the US Democratic primaries for Harris and against Sanders/Biden right now too lol.
There are still some purveyors of unvarnished truth when it comes to trying to gauge support for candidates in various races amongst journalists, but they are overwhelmed by those with agendas.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
The exchange rate has been up and down since the referendum. It has hardly been stable. It has traded within a range
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Unless of course you have to pay for something in Euros, in which case it is going to cost you 30% more than it did before the referendum. How is that not bad?
I'll keep an eye out for how many products are priced in Euros next time I go to Morrisons.
They all will be within 20 years mate.
About as likely as Canadian Tire pricing goods in US dollars.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
The end user is paying 2% more. Which is exactly what we target.
If products are priced in Euros, we have to pay 30% more Sterling for the same thing. What part of that do you fail to understand?
Products aren't priced in Euros. Consumers get paid in Sterling and buy goods in shops priced in Sterling.
We measure the change in these prices and the change is 2.0% not 30%. What part of that do you fail to understand?
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
Indeed it peaked at 3.6% not 30% which is not mammoth. Or even that large historically.
Ah, but Malc's a Typical Tory doing down a Scottish built ship named after a Scottish duke......
LOL, one of the few built in Scotland and named after one of the biggest rogues ever. Montrose was a rank bad un responsible for giving Scotland away to line his own pockets. If naming a ship after that ar**hole is the best the Tories can do is it any wonder the union is breaking up.
Are you thinking of the Duke of Montrose or the Marquess? I think that the latter was a remarkable soldier who lived in very complicated times.
David, He was the 4th Marquess and First Duke, he got his Dukedom as a prize for helping push through the Act of Union. He was one of the dozen or so who made a fortune out of it.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
So your comment that you as a consumer feel poorer was false then.
No. I said overall we are poorer and that I personally feel significantly poorer.
In which case, your circumstances are unusual.
Sterling is worth about half what it was against the dollar in 1967, but we're still far richer per head than we were in 1967.
PB posters are unusual, to put it politely: Remainer and Leaver alike. We are older, richer (with some extraordinary outliers), more likely to have revenue streams from non-sterling sources, extraordinarily more likely to have property, time, jobs or passports abroad, extraordinarily more likely to be a member of a political party, and politically well informed to the point of nerdery.
So when @Gallowgate tells you that he is significantly poorer, that is not implausible.
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Undoubtedly there are swings and roundabouts but ultimately a devalued currency means a reduction in overall national wealth for any country dependant on overseas trade as the UK is.
They're getting desperate over on Facebook. Apparently Jennie Formby having cancer now means she absolutely did nothing wrong in the past and all the evidence should be discarded, with anyone producing evidence against her clearly bullying her
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
The immediate impact on inflation since the referendum across all imported goods was 6% although it has fallen back a little as the months roll the increase out. Obviously there will be differences within that broad category.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
The exchange rate has been up and down since the referendum. It has hardly been stable. It has traded within a range
"Relatively stable" = "traded within a range" relative to "dropping by 30% from one range to another"
This might lose Trump the WH. Kentucky and W Virginia amongst states who have insured most previously uninsured voters.
"the 2020 election will be another referendum on health care. If you’re an American who suffers from a pre-existing condition, or doesn’t have a job that comes with health benefits, you should know that if Trump is re-elected, he will, one way or another, take away your health insurance."
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Great times to be young.
Petrol is about the same it was 4-5 years ago long before the referendum and is affected far more by fuel duty.
Macroeconomic evidence is that salaries are rising above inflation. Minimum wage is rising much faster than inflation.
Items you may want to buy are rising by 2.0% per annum not more expensive per day.
They're getting desperate over on Facebook. Apparently Jennie Formby having cancer now means she absolutely did nothing wrong in the past and all the evidence should be discarded, with anyone producing evidence against her clearly bullying her
Yes, it's pretty desperate. But Harriet Harman has backed the moderates into an difficult position here, hasn't she? If being pregnant is a reason to be automatically reselected, surely having chemotherapy can keep you in a job permanently? What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander and all that.
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
They're getting desperate over on Facebook. Apparently Jennie Formby having cancer now means she absolutely did nothing wrong in the past and all the evidence should be discarded, with anyone producing evidence against her clearly bullying her
Yep, pretty desperate. Just because someone has an illness doesn't mean their opinions are automatically valid.
Ah, but Malc's a Typical Tory doing down a Scottish built ship named after a Scottish duke......
LOL, one of the few built in Scotland and named after one of the biggest rogues ever. Montrose was a rank bad un responsible for giving Scotland away to line his own pockets. If naming a ship after that ar**hole is the best the Tories can do is it any wonder the union is breaking up.
12 out of the 16 T23s were built in Scotland.
I know , but a lot less of them and their successors than were promised. Yet they are happy now to send orders abroad under the unbelievable impression that they save a few pounds and pay out millions in benefits. Country is run by morons, deliberately nasty ones.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I live in Spain and my Teachers' pension is paid in sterling which is converted into Euros each month according to the exchange rate. Personally I am sufficiently comfortable for this not to directly affect my lifestyle but many thousands who rely on smaller sums such as the OAP are struggling mightily and directly as a result of the fall in sterling. I understand the notion of collateral damage and am content with a Brexit which reflects the closeness of the actual result. No deal certainly does not do this.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
So your comment that you as a consumer feel poorer was false then.
Whe No. I said overall we are poorer and that I personally feel significantly poorer.
In which case, your circumstances are unusual.
Sterling is worth about half what it was against the dollar in 1967, but we're still far richer per head than we were in 1967.
PB posters are unusual, to put it politely: Remainer and Leaver alike. We are older, richer (with some extraordinary outliers), more likely to have revenue streams from non-sterling sources, extraordinarily more likely to have property, time, jobs or passports abroad, extraordinarily more likely to be a member of a political party, and politically well informed to the point of nerdery.
So when @Gallowgate tells you that he is significantly poorer, that is not implausible.
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Great times to be young.
Hold on to the mortgage. It is a very good investment. In my experience a good predictor of late-life prosperity is whether one had purchased a property when young. It is hard but it gets better, I assure you.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
It is odd though that the fall in Sterling after the referendum was significantly greater than the subsequent blip in inflation. The most obvious cause is that those who were selling us the goods we import took a hit on their margins but you would have expected them to look to restore those margins over time.
Obviously you get extreme cases of hyper inflation but once again, as with exports and imports, the causation/correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic inflation/trade has proven to be a great deal more elastic than the theory would indicate.
FWIW, when looking to replace my car I found Audis significantly more expensive than the model I was looking to replace had been. So I bought a Jag instead (well, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
That's rubbish. I don't know about holidays as I haven't had time for one this year but certainly products from Europe are no where near 30% more expensive.
Even if the end consumer is not paying 30% more, somebody is.
The end user is paying 2% more. Which is exactly what we target.
If products are priced in Euros, we have to pay 30% more Sterling for the same thing. What part of that do you fail to understand?
I see there is already spanking going on for this.
The actual number is more like 13% than 30%.
I make it about 16% 1.31 to 1.1 as calculation but if you go back to the announcement of the referendum I think it’s 1.4 down to 1.1. People will point out that it was even worse in 2008 but there had been a sustained recovery over the last few years.
They're getting desperate over on Facebook. Apparently Jennie Formby having cancer now means she absolutely did nothing wrong in the past and all the evidence should be discarded, with anyone producing evidence against her clearly bullying her
Yes, it's pretty desperate. But Harriet Harman has backed the moderates into an difficult position here, hasn't she? If being pregnant is a reason to be automatically reselected, surely having chemotherapy can keep you in a job permanently? What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander and all that.
No, the gander has to check his privilege, what with being male and probably white to boot.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I live in Spain and my Teachers' pension is paid in sterling which is converted into Euros each month according to the exchange rate. Personally I am sufficiently comfortable for this not to directly affect my lifestyle but many thousands who rely on smaller sums such as the OAP are struggling mightily and directly as a result of the fall in sterling. I understand the notion of collateral damage and am content with a Brexit which reflects the closeness of the actual result. No deal certainly does not do this.
Its your choice to be an expat. Policy should rightly be set first and foremost for those who live and work in the UK. You always have an option of returning to the UK if you choose.
This might lose Trump the WH. Kentucky and W Virginia amongst states who have insured most previously uninsured voters.
"the 2020 election will be another referendum on health care. If you’re an American who suffers from a pre-existing condition, or doesn’t have a job that comes with health benefits, you should know that if Trump is re-elected, he will, one way or another, take away your health insurance."
That is why Trump has said he will announce his health plan after 2020.
But the base won’t believe that. My wife’s aunt posted on FB the other day that she couldn’t afford her premiums and if even she could, she couldn’t afford her prescription co-pays as well. Two of her friends replied “well as soon as Trump gets re-elected and gets the Democrats out of the House his healthcare reform will see your premiums and co-pays reduce to next to nothing.” And this is in freakin’ Connecticut!
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I think he lives abroad and has his expenses in Euros, although I could be mistaken. Either way this is (part of) why expats voted Remain in huge numbers.
Sadly I know of too too many who voted leave. They didn't understand economics either.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
On Bridlington, clearly it's a poor result for both Labour and the Conservatives, and a very impressive one for the Lib Dems.
But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.
May 2019 result
Con 2101 Con 2050 Con 1929 Lab 855
Yesterday's by-election
Lib Dem 1308 Con 815 UKIP 349 Yorks 196 Lab 135 Ind 125 Ind 76 Ind 58
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I live in Spain and my Teachers' pension is paid in sterling which is converted into Euros each month according to the exchange rate. Personally I am sufficiently comfortable for this not to directly affect my lifestyle but many thousands who rely on smaller sums such as the OAP are struggling mightily and directly as a result of the fall in sterling. I understand the notion of collateral damage and am content with a Brexit which reflects the closeness of the actual result. No deal certainly does not do this.
Its your choice to be an expat. Policy should rightly be set first and foremost for those who live and work in the UK. You always have an option of returning to the UK if you choose.
Correct and I'm clever enough to have come out even overall not to mention the better lifestyle. As you hurtle towards the coming catastrophe you can be sure I'll be equally sympathetic to your plight.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I live in Spain and my Teachers' pension is paid in sterling which is converted into Euros each month according to the exchange rate. Personally I am sufficiently comfortable for this not to directly affect my lifestyle but many thousands who rely on smaller sums such as the OAP are struggling mightily and directly as a result of the fall in sterling. I understand the notion of collateral damage and am content with a Brexit which reflects the closeness of the actual result. No deal certainly does not do this.
Its your choice to be an expat. Policy should rightly be set first and foremost for those who live and work in the UK. You always have an option of returning to the UK if you choose.
You’d be stuffed if we did we’d bring the NHS to a grinding halt and you’d have to build refugee camps to house us along with many other problems
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
I think he lives abroad and has his expenses in Euros, although I could be mistaken. Either way this is (part of) why expats voted Remain in huge numbers.
Sadly I know of too too many who voted leave. They didn't understand economics either.
Something they can celebrate as they march today to remember a long forgotten battle.
I know it's been tediously gone over before, but I still can't get my head round Northern Irish Unionists making common cause with people who would sell NI down the river to attain Brexit. It can't just be about the £billion can it?
I don't believe for a moment that a Corbyn-led Labour party would be genuine about Remain.
I am close to certain you are wrong about that - if you mean they will in practice deliver Brexit rather than cancel it following Ref2.
If there is a pre Brexit GE the manifesto will promise Ref2 with Remain as an option and I am sure this will be honoured if they win. When the Ref duly happens it is inconceivable that the vast bulk of the party will not then campaign for Remain - which will walk it.
I think you are giving too much weight to 'We all know Jezza and Seumus hate the EU' and too little to the stated policy, the obvious direction of travel, and the clear and overwhelming majority Remain position of Labour MPs and the membership.
The problem I think Labour faces is that it has lost the ability to attract tactical votes in the way it once did. I don't think that simply appearing to change tack on Brexit is going to fix that.
There will be significant numbers of anti-Tory centre-left voters that would have tactically for Labour when, say, Ed was leader, but will not do so while Corbyn/Milne are at the helm. The hard-left takeover of the party exemplified by the anti-semitism fiasco is proving too much for many former members and lifelong voters let along tactical supporters.
To that extent I agree with HUYFD, I think the Tories have a far easier task to pick up significant numbers of BP voters at a GE if they deliver a non-catastrophic Brexit (Big "if" I know). I can actually see a path for the Tories to put together the votes to win an overall majority. I cannot see how Corbyn puts the votes together for an overall majority.
This might lose Trump the WH. Kentucky and W Virginia amongst states who have insured most previously uninsured voters.
"the 2020 election will be another referendum on health care. If you’re an American who suffers from a pre-existing condition, or doesn’t have a job that comes with health benefits, you should know that if Trump is re-elected, he will, one way or another, take away your health insurance."
On Bridlington, clearly it's a poor result for both Labour and the Conservatives, and a very impressive one for the Lib Dems.
But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.
Con 2101 Con 2050 Con 1929 Lab 855
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
More simply than that, individual council by-elections tell us little. There are almost certainly local considerations at play.
Aggregate tables are more interesting, but even then I'm sceptical whether local council by-elections tell us much.
If we do leave No Deal 31 October and the sky doesn't fall, how long will it take before you admit you were wrong?
Excuse me but hasn't the pound already lost 30% of its value against the euro since the referendum. Let's not pretend nothing has changed.
Yes it has and exports have risen, inflation has remained under control and the sky hasn't fallen.
Change isn't bad.
Depends on what the change is.
Precisely. Good changes can be good, bad changes can be bad and some changes can be bad or good depending upon the circumstances.
If nothing ever changes you end up stagnant.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
It's made me poorer as my pension is down considerably as a direct result. Anyone who's been on a holiday in a EU country has also been directly affected.
Lower exchange rates boosts UK companies overseas earnings. So the vast majority of UK citizens will have seen a rise in the value of their pension pot, or the funds backing them for those lucky enough to be on DB pensions.
Good point. The stock markets have risen because of this effect, so something has gone badly wrong with felix's pension pot if it has gone down.
Except aren't DB pension schemes valued/assessed against gilt rates and not their actual investments? Gilt rates are dire.
Low interest rates put the value of fixed interest securities (and equities, less directly) up, not down. Also the value of the liabilities - DB funds should mostly be inured to the effect of interst rate movements. Either way, it won't affect pension members since the benefit to them is defined, so the only impact is on whether the scheme is likely to go bust before or after they cease claiming from it.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Touching that you think the bottom has been reached and that there are no signs of slowdown. One can only hope your career is well removed from the world of personal finance.
I see May is still coming up with more stupid stuff before she leaves, with the announcement for an Office for Tackling* Injustices. Has that tw@t Timothy been advising her again?
* by tackling she means collate data that is already collected and analyzed by a range of other departments / Quangos.
Ah, but Malc's a Typical Tory doing down a Scottish built ship named after a Scottish duke......
LOL, one of the few built in Scotland and named after one of the biggest rogues ever. Montrose was a rank bad un responsible for giving Scotland away to line his own pockets. If naming a ship after that ar**hole is the best the Tories can do is it any wonder the union is breaking up.
Are you thinking of the Duke of Montrose or the Marquess? I think that the latter was a remarkable soldier who lived in very complicated times.
David, He was the 4th Marquess and First Duke, he got his Dukedom as a prize for helping push through the Act of Union. He was one of the dozen or so who made a fortune out of it.
The more remarkable by far is the first who won a series of victories firstly as a Covenanter, then on behalf of Charles I and ultimately came to a very sticky end. Its not a period I have studied in detail but I remember reading Scott's "A legend of Monrose" at University. I think he also appeared in The Covenanters.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Touching that you think the bottom has been reached and that there are no signs of slowdown. One can only hope your career is well removed from the world of personal finance.
Try using some real macroeconomic statistics rather than the fictions and make believe that keeps getting thrown around by your side.
Given the LDs were the only unequivocally anti Brexit and pro Remain in all circumstances party who stood in that ward in Bridlington, 57% of the voters in that ward did not vote for an anti Brexit Party
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Touching that you think the bottom has been reached and that there are no signs of slowdown. One can only hope your career is well removed from the world of personal finance.
Try using some real macroeconomic statistics rather than the fictions and make believe that keeps getting thrown around by your side.
It's very sad to hear Tory supporters spout your nonsense - once Corbyn has gone you will receive the reckoning you deserve.
So you think that reducing the value of Sterling is a good thing? Despite @rcs1000 already explaining to you that this has very little impact on our balance of trade/imports/exports?
All it has done is made us all poorer. Cheers.
Except it hasn't made us poorer, inflation remains low and under control. Of course its not a panacea and hasn't fixed the balance of trade, but it has had an impact just as its had a [very small] impact on inflation.
What on earth are you on about? All products bought from Europe are now 30% more expensive. All foreign holidays in Europe are now 30% more expensive.
I already feel poorer as a result. Significantly.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
It is odd though that the fall in Sterling after the referendum was significantly greater than the subsequent blip in inflation. The most obvious cause is that those who were selling us the goods we import took a hit on their margins but you would have expected them to look to restore those margins over time.
Obviously you get extreme cases of hyper inflation but once again, as with exports and imports, the causation/correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic inflation/trade has proven to be a great deal more elastic than the theory would indicate.
FWIW, when looking to replace my car I found Audis significantly more expensive than the model I was looking to replace had been. So I bought a Jag instead (well, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).
David, To counter that I found great deal on Audi and went for that recently rather than Jaguar or my normal BMW. Perhaps I was just lucky , mind you still expensive even with a good discount.
They're getting desperate over on Facebook. Apparently Jennie Formby having cancer now means she absolutely did nothing wrong in the past and all the evidence should be discarded, with anyone producing evidence against her clearly bullying her
Yes, it's pretty desperate. But Harriet Harman has backed the moderates into an difficult position here, hasn't she? If being pregnant is a reason to be automatically reselected, surely having chemotherapy can keep you in a job permanently? What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander and all that.
There is a fairly major difference between an allegation of misconduct and a decision to pass a motion of no confidence.
MPs who are subject to motions of no confidence and deselection efforts are not generally people against whom there is a misconduct allegation. Whilst I'm sure Corbynista ultras would say "not being loyal enough to Jeremy" counts as misconduct, that's hogwash in reality. Misconduct is about ability to do the job properly, whereas deselection is very often a purely political call about whether to stand the candidate again based on their ideological position. A deselected MP also doesn't cease to be an MP immediately - in many ways you can deal with the issue whenever and it doesn't need to be when they are pregnant.
I'm pretty sceptical about deselection generally. Once selected originally, an MP ceases to be the property of the local party and has to pivot to represent the constituency as a whole, including non-member supporters and indeed the interests of others who don't vote for them. On some occasions, the local party is demonstrably doing the community a favour through deselection (the MP has been convicted of something short of requiring recall, or is utterly neglecting their duties like O'Mara, or is involved in some kind of grossly offensive conduct). Generally, however, the approach is "they aren't representing my and my pals' views as robustly as I'd like"... when, in truth, they really aren't meant to be there for a self-selecting clique.
Now does anyone really believe that the RoI has GDP per head nearly 50% higher than Germany's ?
If so I doubt they've ever been to the RoI.
Robert explained this rather well in one of his videos dealing with iPhones. The value created in Eire by the likes of Apple and Pfizer doesn't stay there. It is removed by the manufacturers.
Comments
https://twitter.com/rstrongdoctor/status/1149641278918782977
If the standard process took a week then it would be reasonable for May to fill it even if its her final act. There doesn't seem to be any justification not to use the standard process here though.
Sterling is worth about half what it was against the dollar in 1967, but we're still far richer per head than we were in 1967.
Some here keep making up bullshit that prices are 30% more expensive when exchange rates are mentioned. Inflation is the real method of measuring price changes, not exchange rates and inflation is 2.0%. It is you that is economically illiterate.
Interest rates are probably independent of both. Economics is so simple!
https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1149642854869811201
That bar chart is accurate.
I have never once said "tough luck", I support having a safety net for those who go through hardships.
Basic statistical evidence, not so much. You're the one trying to ignore the evidence to suit your warped agenda.
The actual number is more like 13% than 30%.
With the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landings on the Moon imminent, I thought I'd share the time the Russians got hold of a (boilreplate) Apollo capsule, allegedly courtesy of the Royal Navy:
http://www.astronautix.com/a/apollosovieapollocapsule.html
Ooops.
So when @Gallowgate tells you that he is significantly poorer, that is not implausible.
Going on in the US Democratic primaries for Harris and against Sanders/Biden right now too lol.
There are still some purveyors of unvarnished truth when it comes to trying to gauge support for candidates in various races amongst journalists, but they are overwhelmed by those with agendas.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
However, a Labour win (under Corbyn) in a 'pre-B' general election will almost certainly kill Brexit off via Ref2.
This, I think, is also fair comment.
The exchange rate has been up and down since the referendum. It has hardly been stable. It has traded within a range
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Great times to be young.
However, I will be gobsmacked if BJ goes that route. Really do not see it.
I think he's extending.
Macroeconomic evidence is that salaries are rising above inflation. Minimum wage is rising much faster than inflation.
Items you may want to buy are rising by 2.0% per annum not more expensive per day.
https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time
Obviously you get extreme cases of hyper inflation but once again, as with exports and imports, the causation/correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic inflation/trade has proven to be a great deal more elastic than the theory would indicate.
FWIW, when looking to replace my car I found Audis significantly more expensive than the model I was looking to replace had been. So I bought a Jag instead (well, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).
I make it about 16% 1.31 to 1.1 as calculation but if you go back to the announcement of the referendum I think it’s 1.4 down to 1.1. People will point out that it was even worse in 2008 but there had been a sustained recovery over the last few years.
https://twitter.com/ChickenCaoimh/status/1146722195143569408
well. Two of her friends replied “well as soon as Trump gets re-elected and gets the Democrats out of the House his healthcare reform will see your premiums and co-pays reduce to next to nothing.” And this is in freakin’ Connecticut!
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.
May 2019 result
Con 2101
Con 2050
Con 1929
Lab 855
Yesterday's by-election
Lib Dem 1308
Con 815
UKIP 349
Yorks 196
Lab 135
Ind 125
Ind 76
Ind 58
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
Douglas Murray"
https://unherd.com/2019/07/why-homophobia-is-on-the-rise/
Scotland will be OK with the Union still as we move towards that FTA
There will be significant numbers of anti-Tory centre-left voters that would have tactically for Labour when, say, Ed was leader, but will not do so while Corbyn/Milne are at the helm. The hard-left takeover of the party exemplified by the anti-semitism fiasco is proving too much for many former members and lifelong voters let along tactical supporters.
To that extent I agree with HUYFD, I think the Tories have a far easier task to pick up significant numbers of BP voters at a GE if they deliver a non-catastrophic Brexit (Big "if" I know). I can actually see a path for the Tories to put together the votes to win an overall majority. I cannot see how Corbyn puts the votes together for an overall majority.
Aggregate tables are more interesting, but even then I'm sceptical whether local council by-elections tell us much.
He is very high on my list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Graham,_1st_Duke_of_Montrose
The more remarkable by far is the first who won a series of victories firstly as a Covenanter, then on behalf of Charles I and ultimately came to a very sticky end. Its not a period I have studied in detail but I remember reading Scott's "A legend of Monrose" at University. I think he also appeared in The Covenanters.
Bloody Frenchies. Irish. Belgians. Dutch.
I mean, FFS, it's 200 miles from London to Brussels. Do the people posting this shite not ever actually think?
GDP per head
Ireland 181
Germany 124
UK 105
France 104
Italy 96
Spain 92
Consumption per head
Germany 122
UK 114
France 108
Italy 98
Ireland 93
Spain 89
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/2018
Now does anyone really believe that the RoI has GDP per head nearly 50% higher than Germany's ?
If so I doubt they've ever been to the RoI.
Hard not to think NI would be better off joining Ireland.
MPs who are subject to motions of no confidence and deselection efforts are not generally people against whom there is a misconduct allegation. Whilst I'm sure Corbynista ultras would say "not being loyal enough to Jeremy" counts as misconduct, that's hogwash in reality. Misconduct is about ability to do the job properly, whereas deselection is very often a purely political call about whether to stand the candidate again based on their ideological position. A deselected MP also doesn't cease to be an MP immediately - in many ways you can deal with the issue whenever and it doesn't need to be when they are pregnant.
I'm pretty sceptical about deselection generally. Once selected originally, an MP ceases to be the property of the local party and has to pivot to represent the constituency as a whole, including non-member supporters and indeed the interests of others who don't vote for them. On some occasions, the local party is demonstrably doing the community a favour through deselection (the MP has been convicted of something short of requiring recall, or is utterly neglecting their duties like O'Mara, or is involved in some kind of grossly offensive conduct). Generally, however, the approach is "they aren't representing my and my pals' views as robustly as I'd like"... when, in truth, they really aren't meant to be there for a self-selecting clique.