On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
Yep, I stopped paying subs well over a year ago. But I still get emails from the Labour party and local branch newsletters/info/canvassing plans, etc. They even initiated an investigation against me a couple of months back for something I wrote on here!!
The Labour party and the Hotel California are the two things you can never, ever leave.
I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.
It has been clear for a while now that she is The Chosen One. On that basis she has to be the very strong favorite. She is not disqualified by showing talent and the ability to think independently. What matters is the ability to unquestioningly and unthinkingly parrot the line of Corbyn's inner circle.
As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
It’s an interesting broader question though.
The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.
Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
If I was an Indian who followed that faith then there could be an argument. (Don’t know if there any adherents left). If it’s someone with no connection to the history it’s clearly bollocks.
For example, the Scots didn’t behave particularly well in Darien. I don’t think that should prevent proud Scots using whatever the Scottish flag was at the time as a symbol of they so choose.
It's a symbol in Hinduism, the third largest world religion, so I guess there are a few adherents left.
I'm interested in the Scots' bad behaviour in Darien. Pray tell me more.
On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
They even initiated an investigation against me a couple of months back for something I wrote on here!!
The Labour party and the Hotel California are the two things you can never, ever leave.
Scary stuff. Because you weren't toeing the line, comrade? You will be made an un-person.
Trying to work out why I'm five-figures green on non-Corbynite Emma Reynolds to be next LAB leader? Did something happen a couple of years ago and I piled on at very long odds?
I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.
It has been clear for a while now that she is The Chosen One. On that basis she has to be the very strong favorite. She is not disqualified by showing talent and the ability to think independently. What matters is the ability to unquestioningly and unthinkingly parrot the line of Corbyn's inner circle.
She is currently being hammered by a number of Corbynistas for not offering Chris Williamson unqualified support. She has also been pretty pro-Brexit, which will play badly in a leadership contest.
There is no far left candidate that can unite the far left, let alone be guaranteed to win a leadership contest. That is why Corbyn is still in place. Outside of Burgon - who is genuinely and irredeemably thick - the high command can read opinion polls and understands that Corbyn is unpopular. But if he were to go now, the far left runs the very real risk of losing its current control. And that control is far more important to it than Labour winning the next general election.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
6 months normally. There are always people on the system shown as in arrears, this is not a new thing. The % in arrears has not changed significantly. Based on my experience I do not think a drop of 20% of members is at all likely. 10% possible. However, there has certainly been a decline in activity levels, fewer attending meetings etc.
That looks like you could stop making monthly payments after the first one, and Labour would not start chasing you until the end of a full year of membership. And that then, they would give you another six months to pay up before striking you off the list of members.
So if you tried to leave Labour one month into your “membership year” by cancelling your monthly Direct Debits, could you still be considered a member for up to 18 months? Sources with detailed knowledge of Labour party processes told FactCheck that this was indeed the case.
And it appears to be the understanding among party officials. A leaked “weekly internal update” from January 2018 quoted a Labour staffer: “The number of lapsers in the period is high as a result of a spike in joiners around 18 months ago.” The suggestion here is that the party assumes that it takes a year-and-a-half for some members to come off the books after they stop paying.
No if you stop making monthly payments you will be dropped after 6 months. It's only if you pay a whole year upfront that you could stay on the system for a 18 months without a further payment. And that is what you would expect - a year's membership that you have paid for, plus 6 months in arrears. So a spike in arrears drop-offs 18 months after a spike in new joiners would be expected.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
I'm interested in the Scots' bad behaviour in Darien. Pray tell me more.
The impounding of the crew of the Worcester and the hanging of the crew.
Unjust as it was, a trial in Edinburgh about an alleged incident off the Indian coast five years after the end of the Darien scheme is an unusual interpretation of 'in Darien'.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Conclusion For now, a global trade war and a No Deal Brexit remain growing possibilities not certainties. Monetary policy must address the consequences of such uncertainty for the behaviour of businesses, households and financial markets. In some jurisdictions, the impact may warrant a near term policy response as insurance to maintain the expansion. Markets are currently pricing in much more stimulus than this, suggesting greater pessimism about trade developments as well as potentially concerns about the absence of inflationary pressures.
In the UK, the combination of the relatively strong initial conditions – including a tight labour market and inflation at target – and the prospect of greater clarity emerging in the near term regarding the UK and EU’s future relationship argues for a focus on the medium term inflation dynamics. These will be importantly influenced by global developments and even more so by the form that Brexit takes.
The MPC’s projections for the UK economy are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit to the average of a range of outcomes. That assumption is consistent with the MPC’s standard approach to condition its projections on the government policy and with the fact that agreeing a deal is the preferred strategy of both candidates to be the next Prime Minister.
If Brexit progresses smoothly, we expect that the current heightened uncertainties facing companies and households will fade gradually, business investment will rebound, the housing market to rally, and consumption to grow broadly in line with households’ real incomes. This would accelerate economic growth, strengthen domestic inflationary pressures, and require limited and gradual increases in interest rates in order to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.
It is unsurprising that the path of interest rates consistent with achieving the inflation target in this scenario differs from current market pricing of a lower expected path for Bank Rate given that the market places significant weights on both the probability of No Deal and on cuts in Bank Rate in that event.
As the perceived probability of a No Deal has picked up, the levels of Bank Rate, sterling and other UK asset prices in our projections have therefore become increasingly inconsistent with the smooth Brexit assumption in the MPC’s projection.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
Obviously whatever the problem is must be patchy.
It's no problem for me to post with Firefox but clearly there's something going on with the Vanilla embed that Chrome (and Safari) are a bit sniffy about.
He probably wouldn’t give a damn if the U.K. were no longer in it.
What is 'it' in that sentence? The EU?
Sorry, I thought that would have been obvious.
It seemed a strange comment to imply that it's a matter of speculation whether Farage would give a damn whether we're in or out of the EU. Do you suspect his political career has been a charade?
Giving a damn on the choice of Vice President of the Commission.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
It's with Firefox (and W.7) that the comments won't load for me on the 'normal' site. I'm using this 'cut down' site where the comments are in reverse order and with other disadvantages.
If Labour is losing members, is it because they're joining the Green Party? An anti-EU party seems to have little going for it for socially-liberal internationalists. If these people are fairly left-wing on the economy, they'd favour the G.Party. If they're more centrist, they'd go for the Lib.Dems.
Currently yet more publicity on R4 for Farage by the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation...
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
Problems with Safari, too.
I've had problem with Chrome for days now for PB site. Given up and using Firefox.
On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
Yep, I stopped paying subs well over a year ago. But I still get emails from the Labour party and local branch newsletters/info/canvassing plans, etc. They even initiated an investigation against me a couple of months back for something I wrote on here!!
The Labour party and the Hotel California are the two things you can never, ever leave.
Not awfully easy to join, though.
Several years ago I made an email enquiry to the local Labour party, was sent a holding email in reply that promised to be in touch. And nothing.
How come he has changed his twitter handle? Has he been a naughty boy on there?
Apparently you can change your twitter handle and still keep your followers, which is what appears to have been the case (Tim's original handle disappeared from my profile and this one was magically added). It also uses a George Osborne picture, and Tim's writing style and wit, so I hope I'm right in saying it's him.
On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
Yep, I stopped paying subs well over a year ago. But I still get emails from the Labour party and local branch newsletters/info/canvassing plans, etc. They even initiated an investigation against me a couple of months back for something I wrote on here!!
The Labour party and the Hotel California are the two things you can never, ever leave.
I am contemplating leaving the Conservative Party, but I don't want to give up my vote for when Boris Johnson inevitably falls on his fat smug face, and we have a further leadership election.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
Problems with Safari, too.
I've had problem with Chrome for days now for PB site. Given up and using Firefox.
The only thing is I tend to find that where Google leads everyone else follows.
That bug I found in Google Dev Tools will eventually effect Firefox too, because that's what always happens.
When God (Google) says "we're not happy with this" everyone else follows in the end.
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Granddaughter-in-law uses her maiden name for work (I think), but hyphenated socially. No, I'm not sure were are either. Thai daughter in law uses her maiden name, except when she's in England. A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name. British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially. Daughter always used her married name.
In response to the various speculations - Labour List, which has a genuinely broad range of followers from across the party, regularly polls Shadow Cabinet members. Starmer and McDonnell are IIRC always at the top, and Starmer normally wins. Rebecca Long-Bailey had a good outing at PMQs but needs more exposure, both to test her and make her better-known to the membership.
If JC stepped down and McDonnell stood, I'd vote for him, but I don't expect either to happen - he really wants to be Chancellor, not PM. If I'm wrong and theres a leadership election, I think that Starmer would have a good chance, if he tacked left in the campaign - members really don't want to wander back to the centre, but they do rate Starmer's performance. An important question is whether lots of centrist members have in fact lapsed like Southam and just not shown up in the numbers yet, or if they rejoin for the election - Starmer will only win if there is a sizable bloc of centrist Remainers who are members.
Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.
Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?
If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
Just had a look at Google Dev Tools (F12) and this is the problem that Chrome is flagging up:
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
It's working for me in Chrome (and Edge Dev) but I'm writing this in Chrome...
Problems with Safari, too.
I've had problem with Chrome for days now for PB site. Given up and using Firefox.
Thanks. I'll give it a go. Don't like messing about with different systems, though.
In response to the various speculations - Labour List, which has a genuinely broad range of followers from across the party, regularly polls Shadow Cabinet members. Starmer and McDonnell are IIRC always at the top, and Starmer normally wins. Rebecca Long-Bailey had a good outing at PMQs but needs more exposure, both to test her and make her better-known to the membership.
If JC stepped down and McDonnell stood, I'd vote for him, but I don't expect either to happen - he really wants to be Chancellor, not PM. If I'm wrong and theres a leadership election, I think that Starmer would have a good chance, if he tacked left in the campaign - members really don't want to wander back to the centre, but they do rate Starmer's performance. An important question is whether lots of centrist members have in fact lapsed like Southam and just not shown up in the numbers yet, or if they rejoin for the election - Starmer will only win if there is a sizable bloc of centrist Remainers who are members.
How does that work if Starmer tacked left against a more moderate opponent?
I would have thought Starmer's best approach would be to tack just slightly left against someone more left wing say Long-Bailey...
Yes. What we don’t need is unnecessary scary conjecture about what is going on. Like the Israeli have blown up the Iranian nuclear programme, a US warship in the gulf has been hit with a missile, something strange in space is destroying satellites
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Granddaughter-in-law uses her maiden name for work (I think), but hyphenated socially. No, I'm not sure were are either. Thai daughter in law uses her maiden name, except when she's in England. A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name. British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially. Daughter always used her married name.
No, I don't fully understand, either.
Quite common for female Doctors to work under their maiden name, and use their husbands name socially. Partly to do with stalkers and the like, partly just keeping bits of life in different silos.
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Granddaughter-in-law uses her maiden name for work (I think), but hyphenated socially. No, I'm not sure were are either. Thai daughter in law uses her maiden name, except when she's in England. A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name. British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially. Daughter always used her married name.
No, I don't fully understand, either.
Quite common for female Doctors to work under their maiden name, and use their husbands name socially. Partly to do with stalkers and the like, partly just keeping bits of life in different silos.
What a sad bunch Farage and his team of small minded xenophobes are. Turning their back on a group of young students Playing 'Ode To Joy' at the opening of the European Parliament. It's not embarrassing for the UK. It's eye opening for the rest of the world who will see what we're like
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Granddaughter-in-law uses her maiden name for work (I think), but hyphenated socially. No, I'm not sure were are either. Thai daughter in law uses her maiden name, except when she's in England. A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name. British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially. Daughter always used her married name.
No, I don't fully understand, either.
Quite common for female Doctors to work under their maiden name, and use their husbands name socially. Partly to do with stalkers and the like, partly just keeping bits of life in different silos.
Based on a sample of one lady doctor, it can also be that their degree is in their maiden name so their professional identity is bound up with that.
She’s not alone. It is starting to dawn on sensible Labour MPs that the alternative to the deal is indeed no deal not remaining. This is one of the many tricks that May missed by taking no deal off the table. God she made such a mess of this.
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
I think there's also a move by women to reclaim/keep their matrilineal name (though of course they more than likely came from grandfathers originally).
Granddaughter-in-law uses her maiden name for work (I think), but hyphenated socially. No, I'm not sure were are either. Thai daughter in law uses her maiden name, except when she's in England. A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name. British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially. Daughter always used her married name.
No, I don't fully understand, either.
Quite common for female Doctors to work under their maiden name, and use their husbands name socially. Partly to do with stalkers and the like, partly just keeping bits of life in different silos.
Its normal for the other type of doctor to keep her maiden name professionally but use her husbands's name socially, even more so if she has publications under her maiden name.
What a sad bunch Farage and his team of small minded xenophobes are. Turning their back on a group of young students Playing 'Ode To Joy' at the opening of the European Parliament. It's not embarrassing for the UK. It's eye opening for the rest of the world who will see what we're like
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
This is also highly country specific. Almost every country ahs different conventions or in the case of France (and many others) Rules that are incompatible with each other. Such as some countries having a different ending for men and women and other countries insisting that a married pair have the same name.
In Australia I knew someone who had a problem because she was called "le xxx" and none of the computers allowed blanks in a surname.
Her appointment is a hammer blow for the spitzenkandidat idea. It’s also a major setback for Angela Merkel who had fought hard for that idea.
Makes the elections to the EU Parliament even more pointless than they were already. Why on earth did we bother? Why did anyone bother?
Well, look at the bright side. We will be leaving the EU soon and then everybody will stop complaining about the EU, but will knuckle down and apply our best minds and resources to solving the problems that beset the UK by clear-eyed analysis and without recourse to scapegoating or petty abuse.
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
This is also highly country specific. Almost every country ahs different conventions or in the case of France (and many others) Rules that are incompatible with each other. Such as some countries having a different ending for men and women and other countries insisting that a married pair have the same name.
In Australia I knew someone who had a problem because she was called "le xxx" and none of the computers allowed blanks in a surname.
Spain, Russia, Iceland and the USA[1] have different naming conventions. The USA is so widespread we forget that that convention is not universal.
Indeed. A federation with lots of democratic features to point to when people complain about the EU and its so-called 'democratic deficit'. States' rights for a start, followed by an elected senate.
Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.
Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
Double barrelled nowadays usually just means unmarried parents.
This is also highly country specific. Almost every country ahs different conventions or in the case of France (and many others) Rules that are incompatible with each other. Such as some countries having a different ending for men and women and other countries insisting that a married pair have the same name.
In Australia I knew someone who had a problem because she was called "le xxx" and none of the computers allowed blanks in a surname.
In spain couples don’t change their name on marriage their children have first name, females family name and then males family name. They actually wonder why we don’t all end up with the same surname in the U.K. but I gave up trying to explain why it didn’t happen this way. It does give problems for single mothers who don’t want to declare fathers name a problem because to satisfy the computer systems the child has to have two surnames. So if mum decides that Johnson was her name and called the child Johnson Johnson then they would assume the child’s father was a close relative.
A Hammond-McDonnell Government of National Unity would be fun, and not obviously worse than some of the alternatives - certainly higher in IQ than most.
I will wait for RCS2000's comments but it's nice to see someone who actually understands economics being appointed to a central bank...
Quite. I have just read everything I can find about Labour's business Secretary. She's barely been educated. It used to expected that potential party leaders would have written pamphlets or books. Being an article clerk in a law firm after a short stint at Manchester Polytechnic would have gone nowhere near cutting the mustard. Are they really so bereft of talent at the moment?
In response to the various speculations - Labour List, which has a genuinely broad range of followers from across the party, regularly polls Shadow Cabinet members. Starmer and McDonnell are IIRC always at the top, and Starmer normally wins. Rebecca Long-Bailey had a good outing at PMQs but needs more exposure, both to test her and make her better-known to the membership.
If JC stepped down and McDonnell stood, I'd vote for him, but I don't expect either to happen - he really wants to be Chancellor, not PM. If I'm wrong and theres a leadership election, I think that Starmer would have a good chance, if he tacked left in the campaign - members really don't want to wander back to the centre, but they do rate Starmer's performance. An important question is whether lots of centrist members have in fact lapsed like Southam and just not shown up in the numbers yet, or if they rejoin for the election - Starmer will only win if there is a sizable bloc of centrist Remainers who are members.
How does that work if Starmer tacked left against a more moderate opponent?
I would have thought Starmer's best approach would be to tack just slightly left against someone more left wing say Long-Bailey...
The party has always been basically left-wing (cf. Harold Wilson - "Labour is best led from the left") so they wouldn't elect someone who flatly rejected the policies and outlook of recent years, and they'd need persuasion that Starmer wasn't going to do that - e.g. he could make a speech promising not to intervene in Middle East wars or revive PFI. But subject to that, he'd get the remainer and centrist votes plus the people who want to win on a leftish platform.
I will wait for RCS2000's comments but it's nice to see someone who actually understands economics being appointed to a central bank...
Quite. I have just read everything I can find about Labour's business Secretary. She's barely been educated. It used to expected that potential party leaders would have written pamphlets or books. Being an article clerk in a law firm after a short stint at Manchester Polytechnic would have gone nowhere near cutting the mustard. Are they really so bereft of talent at the moment?
All parties are.. Ask yourself a question,
Would you really want to be a politician when you could succeed in another industry (the pay is more and the work far less stressfully and without the publicity)...
Without 24 hour news and social media it was possible to separate being a politician from your private life. Nowadays I don't know how MPs do it and I know a few of them...
Comments
The Labour party and the Hotel California are the two things you can never, ever leave.
I'm interested in the Scots' bad behaviour in Darien. Pray tell me more.
There is no far left candidate that can unite the far left, let alone be guaranteed to win a leadership contest. That is why Corbyn is still in place. Outside of Burgon - who is genuinely and irredeemably thick - the high command can read opinion polls and understands that Corbyn is unpopular. But if he were to go now, the far left runs the very real risk of losing its current control. And that control is far more important to it than Labour winning the next general election.
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1145022145925435392
Refused to display [PB LNK] in a frame because an ancestor violates the following Content Security Policy directive: "frame-ancestors 'self' www2.politicalbetting.com *politicalbetting.com".
Sounds a good choice to demonstrate to Corbyn that the EU is a force for good, so why aren't we staying in?
Is it just me or is there a problem with the 'ordinary' website? Comments will not load.
UK MEPs mugshots in all their glory are here
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/download/advanced/pdf?name=&groupCode=&countryCode=GB&constituency=&bodyType=ALL&bodyCode=
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/sea-change-speech-by-mark-carney.pdf
Conclusion
For now, a global trade war and a No Deal Brexit remain growing possibilities not certainties. Monetary policy must address the consequences of such uncertainty for the behaviour of businesses, households and financial markets. In some jurisdictions, the impact may warrant a near term policy response as insurance to maintain the expansion. Markets are currently pricing in much more stimulus than this, suggesting greater pessimism about trade developments as well as potentially concerns about the absence of inflationary pressures.
In the UK, the combination of the relatively strong initial conditions – including a tight labour market and inflation at target – and the prospect of greater clarity emerging in the near term regarding the UK and EU’s future relationship argues for a focus on the medium term inflation dynamics. These will be importantly influenced by global developments and even more so by the form that Brexit takes.
The MPC’s projections for the UK economy are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit to the average of a range of outcomes. That assumption is consistent with the MPC’s standard approach to condition its projections on the government policy and with the fact that agreeing a deal is the preferred strategy of both candidates to be the next Prime Minister.
If Brexit progresses smoothly, we expect that the current heightened uncertainties facing companies and households will fade gradually, business investment will rebound, the housing market to rally, and consumption to grow broadly in line with households’ real incomes. This would accelerate economic growth, strengthen domestic inflationary pressures, and require limited and gradual increases in interest rates in order to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.
It is unsurprising that the path of interest rates consistent with achieving the inflation target in this scenario differs from current market pricing of a lower expected path for Bank Rate given that the market places significant weights on both the probability of No Deal and on cuts in Bank Rate in that event.
As the perceived probability of a No Deal has picked up, the levels of Bank Rate, sterling and other UK asset prices in our projections have therefore become increasingly inconsistent with the smooth Brexit assumption in the MPC’s projection.
It's no problem for me to post with Firefox but clearly there's something going on with the Vanilla embed that Chrome (and Safari) are a bit sniffy about.
👀
If Labour is losing members, is it because they're joining the Green Party? An anti-EU party seems to have little going for it for socially-liberal internationalists. If these people are fairly left-wing on the economy, they'd favour the G.Party. If they're more centrist, they'd go for the Lib.Dems.
Currently yet more publicity on R4 for Farage by the Brexit Broadcasting Corporation...
Several years ago I made an email enquiry to the local Labour party, was sent a holding email in reply that promised to be in touch. And nothing.
Good evening, everybody.
I hope we don't end up with a sudden war.
That bug I found in Google Dev Tools will eventually effect Firefox too, because that's what always happens.
When God (Google) says "we're not happy with this" everyone else follows in the end.
A lot of Thai ladies seem to use their maiden name.
British daughter-in-law uses her maiden name at work, where she'd been for 15 years, but her husbands name socially.
Daughter always used her married name.
No, I don't fully understand, either.
If JC stepped down and McDonnell stood, I'd vote for him, but I don't expect either to happen - he really wants to be Chancellor, not PM. If I'm wrong and theres a leadership election, I think that Starmer would have a good chance, if he tacked left in the campaign - members really don't want to wander back to the centre, but they do rate Starmer's performance. An important question is whether lots of centrist members have in fact lapsed like Southam and just not shown up in the numbers yet, or if they rejoin for the election - Starmer will only win if there is a sizable bloc of centrist Remainers who are members.
https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1146092437779222530?s=21
I would have thought Starmer's best approach would be to tack just slightly left against someone more left wing say Long-Bailey...
"Content Security Policy: Ignoring ‘x-frame-options’ because of ‘frame-ancestors’ directive."
"Content Security Policy: Couldn't parse invalid host *politicalbetting.com"
At the moment Firefox just has it as an "error" rather than a "warning" unlike Chrome who are flagging it as a warning and blocking the embed.
For the many, not the pregnant...
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1146102183034785792
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/schuldenkrise-von-der-leyen-fordert-die-vereinigten-staaten-von-europa-a-782879.html
In Australia I knew someone who had a problem because she was called "le xxx" and none of the computers allowed blanks in a surname.
EU needs to get a grip on this, or what's bloody purpose.
Pause.
Oh, we are so fucked...
[1] Hillary Rodham became Hillary Rodham Clinton
https://twitter.com/Lagarde/status/1146105347800743936
What's the best hotel in Blackpool? Preferably close to the beach.
The stars have (mis)aligned and I need to spend a night in Blackpool.
A Hammond-McDonnell Government of National Unity would be fun, and not obviously worse than some of the alternatives - certainly higher in IQ than most.
Yes, yes, I'm joking.
Eu Commission President: Ursula von der Leyen (Germany, CDU)
European Central Bank: Christine Lagarde
EU Council President: Charles Michel (Belgium, Liberals)
High Representatives for Foreign Affairs: Josep Borell (Spain, Socialists)
Just like last time.
Probably.
Would you really want to be a politician when you could succeed in another industry (the pay is more and the work far less stressfully and without the publicity)...
Without 24 hour news and social media it was possible to separate being a politician from your private life. Nowadays I don't know how MPs do it and I know a few of them...