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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s protégée, Rebecca Long-Bailey, now betting favourite

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s protégée, Rebecca Long-Bailey, now betting favourite to be his successor

The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much .

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Hmmmm.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Heaven help us.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Well in my LP branch in London membership is about 10% down from the peak, and is still dropping but quite slowly. So I would doubt if the national drop is as big as 100k - that would imply a 20% drop.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    If Rebecca Long-Bailey is the answer, then I don't understand the question.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    anothernick said:

    Well in my LP branch in London membership is about 10% down from the peak, and is still dropping but quite slowly. So I would doubt if the national drop is as big as 100k - that would imply a 20% drop.

    Is your branch representative of the country? :p
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A Pinsent Masons alumna: and one I got on at 350 on Betfair.

    Backing a few well-chosen long shots can work out very well - you can afford for most of them to fall by the wayside if one or two of them come steaming in.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    The problem is they have managed to piss off their actual core demographic (as well as the right)....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Well I'm still a member. Joined last year and one of my NY resolutions - just behind stopping smoking and just above doing a daily run - was to start going to meetings.

    As of today (2nd July) I have yet to go to a Labour Party meeting. I am also still smoking. I do not do a daily run. Not even close.

    Moral of all this?

    Not sure.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm still a member. Joined last year and one of my NY resolutions - just behind stopping smoking and just above doing a daily run - was to start going to meetings.

    As of today (2nd July) I have yet to go to a Labour Party meeting. I am also still smoking. I do not do a daily run. Not even close.

    Moral of all this?

    You need to reassess your priorities ?

    The smoking thing is tough. as I know from experience (I gave up at least six times). But it can be done.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Since when did a public commitment from Boris mean anything ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Goodness, Bangladesh have strangled India at the end of the innings.
    Good effort which gives them a chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Nigelb said:

    Goodness, Bangladesh have strangled India at the end of the innings.
    Good effort which gives them a chance.

    Indian bookmarkers been on the phone again?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Mark Cavendish will not ride in the Tour de France for the first time since 2007 after Team Dimension Data omitted the sprinter from their squad.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/cycling/48838998
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Two wickets off the final ball to be bowled of the innings, must be a first.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    Which vote?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029383846649857

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029387525103616

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029388741390338

    It goes on and on...sounds like a lovely chap.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    david_herdson said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    Which vote?
    I KNEW you were going to ask me that!!

    Hold on - off for a google.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Bullshit. It's because of snide cynicism like that that politics is as it is. If the default assumption is - contrary to any real evidence - that MPs are shysters on the make, then don't be surprised if good people are put off and chancers are attracted.

    If you opt out of the decision making, do not complain if decisions are made that you don't like.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    kinabalu said:

    Well I'm still a member. Joined last year and one of my NY resolutions - just behind stopping smoking and just above doing a daily run - was to start going to meetings.

    As of today (2nd July) I have yet to go to a Labour Party meeting. I am also still smoking. I do not do a daily run. Not even close.

    Moral of all this?

    Not sure.

    If you want to get your step count up by delivering questionnaires (And not just when an election is up), join the yellow peril.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited July 2019
    OT I may just be late to this but have we done this debate polling?

    https://i.redd.it/gjdt9s133r731.jpg
    (HT r/BaemyKlobaechar )

    Interesting that Warren got a bigger net win than Harris, and Beto did worse than the woman who thinks bike lanes cause cancer (although admittedly from a higher base presumably). Also interesting how big Biden's drop wasn't.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It's not necessarily hardcore conservatives that are offended (more likely with the Lush stunt than the Nike one, though I doubt either will have any lasting damage).

    But likelywise, businesses cannot thrive by playing only to their core demographic, which is likely - sooner or later - to move on and which if too tied to a brand will make it hard for that brand to reinvent itself.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    The nation yearns for the rise of their enormo-haddock overlords!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    Goodness, Bangladesh have strangled India at the end of the innings.
    Good effort which gives them a chance.

    Indian bookmarkers been on the phone again?
    No; India's middle order just isn't very good.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    david_herdson said:

    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Bullshit. It's because of snide cynicism like that that politics is as it is. If the default assumption is - contrary to any real evidence - that MPs are shysters on the make, then don't be surprised if good people are put off and chancers are attracted.

    If you opt out of the decision making, do not complain if decisions are made that you don't like.
    The problem is that fewer ordinary people do join. Hence when there is a leadership election the decision falls to the obsessives.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. B2, I think it was Plato (the philosopher) who wrote that the price of refusing to participate in politics was being governed by one's inferiors.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    FPT, re: light saber funnies:

    ""Star Wars - I'll tell you what - I identify very much with the guy with the lightsaber - the Jedi Knights," Johnson said when asked who his favorite character was in the films.

    "I am proud to say the lightsaber is manufactured, was invented in South Ruislip - the constituency I represent," he added.

    "I have a lightsaber in my office in Westminster - it is a most beautiful thing which was presented to my by no less a figure than Christopher Lee," he said. Lee played Count Dooku in Star Wars.

    "We invented the lightsaber in Uxbridge, it is wielded in Northern Ireland, the resulting film is shown around the world ... or something like that," Johnson added."

    Slightly less of a goofball response in a fuller context. Plus - name me another politician who has a light saber in their office?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    TOPPING said:

    david_herdson said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    Which vote?
    I KNEW you were going to ask me that!!

    Hold on - off for a google.
    Save your time - you don't need the detail because the detail doesn't really matter.

    NI would only be 'hived off' in the event of some deal being agreed, which would need not only a ratification vote in the Commons but implementing legislation, the latter of which - and arguably the former too, given that that'd be mandated by an existing Act rather than being a standalone vote - would override a non-binding indicative show of the Commons' opinion.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    david_herdson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It's not necessarily hardcore conservatives that are offended (more likely with the Lush stunt than the Nike one, though I doubt either will have any lasting damage).

    But likelywise, businesses cannot thrive by playing only to their core demographic, which is likely - sooner or later - to move on and which if too tied to a brand will make it hard for that brand to reinvent itself.
    You could apply that comment to some people view of their favored political party.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Aren't you falling into the mistake of imagining Johnson as anything other than a lying turd?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    IanB2 said:

    david_herdson said:

    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Bullshit. It's because of snide cynicism like that that politics is as it is. If the default assumption is - contrary to any real evidence - that MPs are shysters on the make, then don't be surprised if good people are put off and chancers are attracted.

    If you opt out of the decision making, do not complain if decisions are made that you don't like.
    The problem is that fewer ordinary people do join. Hence when there is a leadership election the decision falls to the obsessives.
    Indeed. There's a solution to that, don't you think, if people are willing to embrace it?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029383846649857

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029387525103616

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029388741390338

    It goes on and on...sounds like a lovely chap.

    Sounds like this chap.

    http://www.eastendwalks.com/?page_id=71
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    Goodness, Bangladesh have strangled India at the end of the innings.
    Good effort which gives them a chance.

    Indian bookmarkers been on the phone again?
    No; India's middle order just isn't very good.
    Biggest problem is that there isn't the strength in depth to challenge Dhoni for his spot. He knows it, and plays how he likes not according to the match situation - this can find them out against the likes of Australia and England.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT I may just be late to this but have we done this debate polling?

    https://i.redd.it/gjdt9s133r731.jpg
    (HT r/BaemyKlobaechar )

    Interesting that Warren got a bigger net win than Harris, and Beto did worse than the woman who thinks bike lanes cause cancer (although admittedly from a higher base presumably). Also interesting how big Biden's drop wasn't.

    Indeed. Biden seems very good value at the moment.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    I genuinely don't know about other CLPs, but membership in my CLP is stable at 400-odd (vs 950 for the Tories, apparently, but this is Surrey and it's their largest association in Britain) - we lost eight members around the time of the Euros and have picked up 7 since. It's one of those things where the definition affects the count - at any given moment there are people overdue to renew or whose membership hasn't been processed yet, but the basic position is no change.

    If Corbyn stands down at some point, I can't see him endorsing a specific successor - that's not something retiring Labour leaders (or any other party, surely?) do. Has Vince expressed a preference, or Theresa?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Why? Genuine question. Do you apply it in other fields too? e.g. "It's the job of an England cricket fan to rubbish our players, rather than to try to play themselves?"

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    We back?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    david_herdson said:

    TOPPING said:

    david_herdson said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    Which vote?
    I KNEW you were going to ask me that!!

    Hold on - off for a google.
    Save your time - you don't need the detail because the detail doesn't really matter.

    NI would only be 'hived off' in the event of some deal being agreed, which would need not only a ratification vote in the Commons but implementing legislation, the latter of which - and arguably the former too, given that that'd be mandated by an existing Act rather than being a standalone vote - would override a non-binding indicative show of the Commons' opinion.
    The vote (whichever one it was) made it illegal - it was more than a "non-binding indicative show".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    NickPalmer said:

    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Why? Genuine question. Do you apply it in other fields too? e.g. "It's the job of an England cricket fan to rubbish our players, rather than to try to play themselves?"

    Much less effort.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not surprising but pretty grim:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/london-bankers-brace-for-summer-gloom-with-thousands-of-job-cuts
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Brom said:

    I would question the sanity of anyone who is a member of a political party. It is the job of a citizen to despise almost all MPs and point out their failings, rather than to become one of them.

    Irony alert. Brexit fanatic questions sanity of others. Amusingly stupid even by @Brom's standards. It has to rank as one of the most twattish things he has ever written on here
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Nigelb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Since when did a public commitment from Boris mean anything ?
    Boris always reminds me of the Kirsty McColl song about the guy who works down the chip shop & says he's Elvis "and he's a liar, and I'm not sure about you'. You being Jeremy Hunt on this occasion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not surprising but pretty grim:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/london-bankers-brace-for-summer-gloom-with-thousands-of-job-cuts

    “I think there’s a real possibility that you could see more than 5,000 jobs lost by the end of the year.”

    Missing a 0, surely?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    Goodness, Bangladesh have strangled India at the end of the innings.
    Good effort which gives them a chance.

    Indian bookmarkers been on the phone again?
    No; India's middle order just isn't very good.
    Biggest problem is that there isn't the strength in depth to challenge Dhoni for his spot. He knows it, and plays how he likes not according to the match situation - this can find them out against the likes of Australia and England.
    Carcking comment on the BBC website, though:
    Virat Kohli failing to clear, and getting caught on, that ridiculously short boundary he was whinging about on Sunday is just wonderful....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    That just needs an “XXX notwithstanding” clause in the Act

    (But it’s almost as if Remainer obsessive sin Parliament were doing their best to frustrate any possible compromise solution to an issue)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    The US Army's secret weapon, revealed...

    we have the brand new Sherman tanks...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/01/trump-tanks-fourth-july-1393664
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Sanders raised 25% less than Buttigieg, last quarter:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/451322-bernie-sanders-raises-24m-in-second-quarter
    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) raised $18 million in the second quarter of 2019 for his presidential bid and transferred an additional $6 million from other campaign accounts, injecting a total of $24 million into his campaign as he heads into the second half of the year...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Animal_pb said:

    FPT, re: light saber funnies:

    ""Star Wars - I'll tell you what - I identify very much with the guy with the lightsaber - the Jedi Knights," Johnson said when asked who his favorite character was in the films.

    "I am proud to say the lightsaber is manufactured, was invented in South Ruislip - the constituency I represent," he added.

    "I have a lightsaber in my office in Westminster - it is a most beautiful thing which was presented to my by no less a figure than Christopher Lee," he said. Lee played Count Dooku in Star Wars.

    "We invented the lightsaber in Uxbridge, it is wielded in Northern Ireland, the resulting film is shown around the world ... or something like that," Johnson added."

    Slightly less of a goofball response in a fuller context. Plus - name me another politician who has a light saber in their office?

    Catherine Ashton (remember her?) has a Dalek in her house.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    One for @HYUFD to contemplate:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1146042843691212800

    This seems to put the nail in the coffin of his theory as to what Boris Johnson would in fact do as Prime Minister with a majority.

    Plus it (hiving off NI) would be illegal following the vote in parliament.
    That just needs an “XXX notwithstanding” clause in the Act

    (But it’s almost as if Remainer obsessive sin Parliament were doing their best to frustrate any possible compromise solution to an issue)
    It was the madmen Brexiters who instituted the measure not the sane, nice Remainers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Both the union flag and the St George's flag have been largely reclaimed from the far right, so it is possible. However, it is harder for a historical flag and it is harder in an age where the far right work on a nudge nudge basis to appropriate emblems and phrases (or perhaps a honk honk basis).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Roger said:

    I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.

    And I remember your response in May 2005 when I suggested backing Obama at 50/1 to win WH2008

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited July 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    Roger said:

    I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.

    And I remember your response in May 2005 when I suggested backing Obama at 50/1 to win WH2008

    Have you ever told us how that one panned out? :o
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    david_herdson said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT I may just be late to this but have we done this debate polling?

    https://i.redd.it/gjdt9s133r731.jpg
    (HT r/BaemyKlobaechar )

    Interesting that Warren got a bigger net win than Harris, and Beto did worse than the woman who thinks bike lanes cause cancer (although admittedly from a higher base presumably). Also interesting how big Biden's drop wasn't.

    Indeed. Biden seems very good value at the moment.
    Indeed. Biden at 7 is nuts. Just topped up.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    "The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much."

    Can't say I'm much of a Corbyn fan but if they didn't bother to deny it or only denied it a little bit then people would say "oh, look, they're not really trying that hard to deny it, there must be something in it". Do it the other way and people go "oh, look, they're denying it too hard, there must be something in it".

    What's the magic formula to deny it just the right amount in order for people to go "nah, nothing in it".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1146026295375085585

    Lagarde for ECB? Mad or brave? What a time to take over that poisoned chalice as we hit a major downturn.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    viewcode said:

    Animal_pb said:

    FPT, re: light saber funnies:

    ""Star Wars - I'll tell you what - I identify very much with the guy with the lightsaber - the Jedi Knights," Johnson said when asked who his favorite character was in the films.

    "I am proud to say the lightsaber is manufactured, was invented in South Ruislip - the constituency I represent," he added.

    "I have a lightsaber in my office in Westminster - it is a most beautiful thing which was presented to my by no less a figure than Christopher Lee," he said. Lee played Count Dooku in Star Wars.

    "We invented the lightsaber in Uxbridge, it is wielded in Northern Ireland, the resulting film is shown around the world ... or something like that," Johnson added."

    Slightly less of a goofball response in a fuller context. Plus - name me another politician who has a light saber in their office?

    Catherine Ashton (remember her?) has a Dalek in her house.
    A tad harsh on Peter Kellner.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    solarflare said:

    "The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much."

    Can't say I'm much of a Corbyn fan but if they didn't bother to deny it or only denied it a little bit then people would say "oh, look, they're not really trying that hard to deny it, there must be something in it". Do it the other way and people go "oh, look, they're denying it too hard, there must be something in it".

    What's the magic formula to deny it just the right amount in order for people to go "nah, nothing in it".

    "Jeremy Corbyn is very happy to be interviewed about this ridiculous suggestion by any journalist who cares to go jogging with him."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    May should propose Boris for ECB.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    viewcode said:

    Animal_pb said:

    FPT, re: light saber funnies:

    ""Star Wars - I'll tell you what - I identify very much with the guy with the lightsaber - the Jedi Knights," Johnson said when asked who his favorite character was in the films.

    "I am proud to say the lightsaber is manufactured, was invented in South Ruislip - the constituency I represent," he added.

    "I have a lightsaber in my office in Westminster - it is a most beautiful thing which was presented to my by no less a figure than Christopher Lee," he said. Lee played Count Dooku in Star Wars.

    "We invented the lightsaber in Uxbridge, it is wielded in Northern Ireland, the resulting film is shown around the world ... or something like that," Johnson added."

    Slightly less of a goofball response in a fuller context. Plus - name me another politician who has a light saber in their office?

    Catherine Ashton (remember her?) has a Dalek in her house.
    Has anyone checked? Not saying I don't believe him.... why would anyone lie about that....... but.......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    solarflare said:

    "The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much."

    Can't say I'm much of a Corbyn fan but if they didn't bother to deny it or only denied it a little bit then people would say "oh, look, they're not really trying that hard to deny it, there must be something in it". Do it the other way and people go "oh, look, they're denying it too hard, there must be something in it".

    What's the magic formula to deny it just the right amount in order for people to go "nah, nothing in it".

    I think if they had said nothing, everybody would have forgotten about it by Monday. It seemed like a silly tittle tattle story, which I don't think most people think has much validity.

    Sky were suggesting the reason they were going big on it was to play up the narrative of it is another sign that the establishment / deep state are trying to prevent the messiah and his radical agenda and a rallying cry for people to get behind the Corbyn project. Very Trumpian.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    MikeSmithson said:

    Roger said:

    I've got more chance of captaining the England Women's football team than Long -Bailey has of becoming Labour leader.

    And I remember your response in May 2005 when I suggested backing Obama at 50/1 to win WH2008

    You can't lose 'em all! I've probably just caused her odds to come crashing down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    rottenborough said:

    May should propose Boris for ECB.

    Spreadsheet Phil, surely.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    AlastairMeeks said:

    solarflare said:

    "The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much."

    Can't say I'm much of a Corbyn fan but if they didn't bother to deny it or only denied it a little bit then people would say "oh, look, they're not really trying that hard to deny it, there must be something in it". Do it the other way and people go "oh, look, they're denying it too hard, there must be something in it".

    What's the magic formula to deny it just the right amount in order for people to go "nah, nothing in it".

    "Jeremy Corbyn is very happy to be interviewed about this ridiculous suggestion by any journalist who cares to go jogging with him."
    Jeremy Corbyn would be delighted to have a My Little Pony race with any journalist who thinks he's lost his faculties
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Membership of our branch is steady. No real change over the past year. Just the occasional troublemaker who has moved in to the area...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No price on Emma Dent-Coad ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    May should propose Boris for ECB.

    Spreadsheet Phil, surely.
    Can you imagine - interest rates would be negative within a week to compensate for the earthquakes, locusts, famine and meteor impacts that must surely be around the corner.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AlastairMeeks said:

    solarflare said:

    "The furious efforts by the LAB media team to undermine the reports last week that there might be issues with Corbyn’s health suggest that they could be something in it. They protesteth too much."

    Can't say I'm much of a Corbyn fan but if they didn't bother to deny it or only denied it a little bit then people would say "oh, look, they're not really trying that hard to deny it, there must be something in it". Do it the other way and people go "oh, look, they're denying it too hard, there must be something in it".

    What's the magic formula to deny it just the right amount in order for people to go "nah, nothing in it".

    "Jeremy Corbyn is very happy to be interviewed about this ridiculous suggestion by any journalist who cares to go jogging with him."
    Horizontal or vertical?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    SandyRentool said:

    Membership of our branch is steady. No real change over the past year. Just the occasional troublemaker who has moved in to the area...

    South Shields CLP

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u1RrWj4RDk
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Both the union flag and the St George's flag have been largely reclaimed from the far right, so it is possible. However, it is harder for a historical flag and it is harder in an age where the far right work on a nudge nudge basis to appropriate emblems and phrases (or perhaps a honk honk basis).
    Agreed.

    There should be a difference between something which has a shared historical origin (eg the original flag) and something that represented a dubious offshoot (eg the confederate flag),

    It’s a shame that Nike backed away so quickly - even though I understand why - because that will toxify it and make it harder to reclaim in future.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
    If I was an Indian who followed that faith then there could be an argument. (Don’t know if there any adherents left). If it’s someone with no connection to the history it’s clearly bollocks.

    For example, the Scots didn’t behave particularly well in Darien. I don’t think that should prevent proud Scots using whatever the Scottish flag was at the time as a symbol of they so choose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    He probably wouldn’t give a damn if the U.K. were no longer in it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited July 2019
    Both Thiem and Zverez out the men's draw already. Ex the top 3 men's tennis is very unpredictable.
    Lol Tsitispas too.
    90s born men = hopeless.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
    I think if you use a clearly Indian Motif which includes a swastika (not rotated 45° and often with four dots) you would not have a problem. If you try to claim that a rotated swastika in a white circle on a red background or a graffiti symbol is an ancient Indian symbol of divinity, then you deserve all the vitriol that comes your way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1146076745679982592
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.

    6 months normally. There are always people on the system shown as in arrears, this is not a new thing. The % in arrears has not changed significantly. Based on my experience I do not think a drop of 20% of members is at all likely. 10% possible. However, there has certainly been a decline in activity levels, fewer attending meetings etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Charles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
    If I was an Indian who followed that faith then there could be an argument. (Don’t know if there any adherents left). If it’s someone with no connection to the history it’s clearly bollocks.

    For example, the Scots didn’t behave particularly well in Darien. I don’t think that should prevent proud Scots using whatever the Scottish flag was at the time as a symbol of they so choose.
    I used to have a house in my ward owned by Indians who had painted small swastikas around their front door. Apparently it brought good fortune. Always spooked me every time I canvassed there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    He probably wouldn’t give a damn if the U.K. were no longer in it.
    What is 'it' in that sentence? The EU?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    In sunny Oxford today gearing up for the open day tomorrow. It’s just beautiful when it’s like this.

    Suddenly Brexit, the Labour leadership and our next PM seem passing trifles. I am enjoying a well deserved pint next to a Saxon tower that is about 1000 years old (technically 981 but who’s counting). Some perspective on our current troubles is very welcome.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    rottenborough said:



    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Yet another potential negotiating card needlessly thrown away.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    Takes one....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nike 'pulls Betsy Ross flag trainer after Kaepernick complaint'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48840608

    Woke to broke...

    As with Lush, I doubt that hardline conservatives form part of Nike's core demographic of customers.
    It’s an interesting broader question though.

    The original flag was obviously an important symbol in American history. It was misused and adopted by white supremacists/ KKK.

    Does that mean that it should be forever taboo or is there a way to “reclaim” [sic] it for the mainstream?
    Try that with the 'swastika was an ancient Indian symbol of divinity' stuff and see what happens.
    If I was an Indian who followed that faith then there could be an argument. (Don’t know if there any adherents left). If it’s someone with no connection to the history it’s clearly bollocks.

    For example, the Scots didn’t behave particularly well in Darien. I don’t think that should prevent proud Scots using whatever the Scottish flag was at the time as a symbol of they so choose.
    I used to have a house in my ward owned by Indians who had painted small swastikas around their front door. Apparently it brought good fortune. Always spooked me every time I canvassed there.
    I can imagine a LibDem wondering about the value of canvassing a house daubed in swastikas!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    He probably wouldn’t give a damn if the U.K. were no longer in it.
    What is 'it' in that sentence? The EU?
    Sorry, I thought that would have been obvious.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    If Farage can't identify a dangerous fanatic who can?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Another thing we will have no influence over if we leave.

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1146053175222259713

    Well, obviously.
    Farage seems to regard is as an important power.

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1145738415201300480
    He probably wouldn’t give a damn if the U.K. were no longer in it.
    What is 'it' in that sentence? The EU?
    Sorry, I thought that would have been obvious.
    It seemed a strange comment to imply that it's a matter of speculation whether Farage would give a damn whether we're in or out of the EU. Do you suspect his political career has been a charade?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2019
    Still having to access PB with Firefox rather than Google Chrome as Vanilla embed won't load on Chrome.

    Someone was suggesting yesterday the issue will be within the settings on Chrome but I can't see anything obvious?

    If anyone can shed more light would be appreciated.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    I'm trying to think of reasons RLB shouldn't be favourite but can't. She's clearly the anointed one - which counts for a lot if Corbyn has an orderly departure. She's managed to stick close to Corbyn and McDonnell without going full crank like that dimwit Burgon, so would probably get soft left support in a competition between loyalist ultras. Rayner and Lewis have blotted their cookbooks by showing measures of independent thought.

    What opens the race up is a disorderly departure by Corbyn - either after an election defeat or internal revolt. Which could be precipitated by Brexit or, looking further up the road, a damning EHRC report. Then there's a path for a soft left candidate or even a strong moderate to argue Corbynism should be put in the dustbin. Thornberry has been the leading 'compromise' candidate, but I think she's now infuriated everyone. Corbynites don't trust her as she's an arriviste to their cause. Moderates think awfully of her for her absurd defending of Corbyn's indefensible elements. Starmer lacks the charisma to beat a Corbynite.

    So, yeah. Long-Bailey it is. Which is a sad indictment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited July 2019
    anothernick said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    On membership numbers, I thought the "fudge" was that there are now loads of people who haven't paid their subs and in arrears, but it takes quite a long time before the party actually removes them.

    6 months normally. There are always people on the system shown as in arrears, this is not a new thing. The % in arrears has not changed significantly. Based on my experience I do not think a drop of 20% of members is at all likely. 10% possible. However, there has certainly been a decline in activity levels, fewer attending meetings etc.
    That looks like you could stop making monthly payments after the first one, and Labour would not start chasing you until the end of a full year of membership. And that then, they would give you another six months to pay up before striking you off the list of members.

    So if you tried to leave Labour one month into your “membership year” by cancelling your monthly Direct Debits, could you still be considered a member for up to 18 months? Sources with detailed knowledge of Labour party processes told FactCheck that this was indeed the case.

    And it appears to be the understanding among party officials. A leaked “weekly internal update” from January 2018 quoted a Labour staffer: “The number of lapsers in the period is high as a result of a spike in joiners around 18 months ago.” The suggestion here is that the party assumes that it takes a year-and-a-half for some members to come off the books after they stop paying.

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-are-labour-inflating-their-membership-figures
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SouthamObserver said:

    Rebecca Long Bailey is not Corbyn's protege, she is John McDonnell's - and therein lies the problem.

    The only double barrel names around these days are Premiership footballers of African descent and Labour MPs.

    Freakonomics had a chapter on the name waterfall phenomenon..
This discussion has been closed.