I'd be very surprised if there are 12 Labour MPs who would support Boris in a VONC.
There is no way that any Labour MP would fail to support a VNOC. To fail to do so would end their careers.
So will backing a No Deal Brexit.
Not really.The small group of Brexiteers in the Labour ranks have been consistent in their views over the decades from the days when it was Labour policy to leave the EEC without a referendum. They deserve the same consideration shown to the 69 Pro-Marketeers who backed the Heath Government in Autumn 1971.
I'd be very surprised if there are 12 Labour MPs who would support Boris in a VONC.
Betcha Kate Hoey would. And in extremis, all the pro-Leave Labours have to do is not turn up. They produce a Letter From Their Mum, not written by themselves in their left hand, honest, and pro-Leave Corbyn overlooks it. Everybody is happy...
Hoey voted to support the January VNOC. The only abstentions were Woodcock and Lewis.
Weren't both candidates asked for £150,000 to pay for the hustings?
Dear God, somebody expected Boris to pay money to pay a debt? What's wrong with you, you Commie Remoaner Libtard? Only poor people pay debts, darling...
I see Johnson and Hunt are in Northern Ireland. I know that the Conservatives do field (some) candidates in NI from time to time, but is the party that big there? How many members of the Conservative & Unionist party are from Northern Ireland?
Or are they doing it because, you know, democracy?
I think I heard a figure of 400-odd NI Tory members on the news this morning. On that basis they should be doing 400 hustings around the country.
Would have been easier for Ryanair to fly the members over to the mainland.
I'd be very surprised if there are 12 Labour MPs who would support Boris in a VONC.
Betcha Kate Hoey would. And in extremis, all the pro-Leave Labours have to do is not turn up. They produce a Letter From Their Mum, not written by themselves in their left hand, honest, and pro-Leave Corbyn overlooks it. Everybody is happy...
Hoey voted to support the January VNOC. The only abstentions were Woodcock and Lewis.
You're right, anyone who holds the Labour whip will support. Official Labour policy is still to get Brexit done and Hoey, Campbell et al will all back Corbyn 100% in a VONC.
This from Henig, demolishes the FTA fantasies of Boris and Hunt and co.:
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
we have no certainty what would have happened but looking at free wheeling anglo saxon economy Ireland I think we have a good idea
odds are we would have bust the Euro or ourselves.
Perhaps. Or perhaps so therefore can't be trusted".
No one knows what would have happened if we'd joined the euro.
Im afraid global economy.
Those saying otherwise were branded eejits who didnt understand the "New Economy".
But that would all have changed once Elvis had been installed as CotE and Lord Lucan Foreign Secretary.
Counterfactuals are fun but to invest them with HYUFD-like certainties is just barmy.
I havent r own mind up.
Too many variables. The binomial tree would look like crazy paving. Still, it is a lot of fun.
lol
"too many variables"
now youre using my argument when I say pres.
Predicting Brexit is easy peasy. It is and will be a shitshow.
For who ?
There will be winners and losers.Maybe youre just grumpy because you think youll be a loser.
Who will the winners be outside the ranks of the disaster capitalists who provide so much of the financial backing to the posh boys currently telling us that No Deal will be fantastic, but all the EU's fault?
that depends on your criteria for voting.
It isnt all about wallets.
You have an Irish passport and spend time in Ireland and Germany. You retain freedom of movement and have the money and freedom to resettle outside the UK should things go pearshaped. Your profit/loss calculation regarding what losses are acceptable is therefore different from others.
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the, according to Tim Shipman's book.
if we had to the Euro at screwed.
That's a counter factual too far, Alan. We have no idea what would have happened if we'd gone in to the Euro.
we have no certainty what would have happened but looking at free wheeling anglo saxon economy Ireland I think we have a good idea
odds are we would have bust the Euro or ourselves.
Perhaps. Or perhaps so therefore can't be trusted".
No one knows what would have happened if we'd joined the euro.
Im afraid global economy.
Those saying otherwise were branded eejits who didnt understand the "New Economy".
But that would all have changed once Elvis had been installed as CotE and Lord Lucan Foreign Secretary.
Counterfactuals are fun but to invest them with HYUFD-like certainties is just barmy.
I havent r own mind up.
Too many variables. The binomial tree would look like crazy paving. Still, it is a lot of fun.
lol
"too many variables"
now youre using my argument when I say pres.
Predicting Brexit a shitshow.
For who ?
There will be winners and losers.Maybe youre just grumpy because you think youll be a loser.
Who will the winners be outsidhe EU's fault?
that depends on your criteria for voting.
It isnt all about wallets.
True - Brexit voting pensioners who own their homes and a guaranteed income can look beyond their finances. And they’ll get blue passports.
err right, am I meant to hate them or something ? One day that will be you and I dont bear you any ill will either.
I see Johnson and Hunt are in Northern Ireland. I know that the Conservatives do field (some) candidates in NI from time to time, but is the party that big there? How many members of the Conservative & Unionist party are from Northern Ireland?
Or are they doing it because, you know, democracy?
They exist in NI and to their credit they do field candidates, although they obtain very few votes. It speaks well of them I think, and other GB parties should do likewise.
I'd be very surprised if there are 12 Labour MPs who would support Boris in a VONC.
There is no way that any Labour MP would fail to support a VNOC. To fail to do so would end their careers.
So will backing a No Deal Brexit.
Not really.The small group of Brexiteers in the Labour ranks have been consistent in their views over the decades from the days when it was Labour policy to leave the EEC without a referendum. They deserve the same consideration shown to the 69 Pro-Marketeers who backed the Heath Government in Autumn 1971.
Backing No Deal would be an explicit rejection of the 2017 manifesto and a significant escalation on anything they’ve done so far. At a minimum it would mean loss of the Labour whip and in all likelihood resultant deselection.
Labour is bound to VONC any PM who went for no deal, and ATM I can't see how Johnson, or Hunt for that matter, could survive. They only have a majority of 2 or 3 and there are more than 2 or 3 Tories who would support a VONC if it was the only alternative to no deal. I think the DUP would probably find a way to avoid supporting the Tories in those circumstances as well.
I agree. Which is why I will be surprised if a serious attempt to No Deal on 31 Oct is made. I think Johnson will opt for an extension and try to pass a deal in 2020.
I’d rather have Corbyn . Are the Labour Party mad . Long Bailey is hopeless .
RLB is a continuity Corbynite and hence a palatable choice to the current regime. It has to be a woman and Labour would be best served by Jess Rodham Philips but she has no chance.
Phillips vs Stewart at PMQs is an exchange I'd watch.
Does it always end with them making out passionately?
I’d rather have Corbyn . Are the Labour Party mad . Long Bailey is hopeless .
RLB is a continuity Corbynite and hence a palatable choice to the current regime. It has to be a woman and Labour would be best served by Jess Rodham Philips but she has no chance.
Phillips vs Stewart at PMQs is an exchange I'd watch.
Does it always end with them making out passionately?
There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
Labour is bound to VONC any PM who went for no deal, and ATM I can't see how Johnson, or Hunt for that matter, could survive. They only have a majority of 2 or 3 and there are more than 2 or 3 Tories who would support a VONC if it was the only alternative to no deal. I think the DUP would probably find a way to avoid supporting the Tories in those circumstances as well.
I agree. Which is why I will be surprised if a serious attempt to No Deal on 31 Oct is made. I think Johnson will opt for an extension and try to pass a deal in 2020.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB
I see Johnson and Hunt are in Northern Ireland. I know that the Conservatives do field (some) candidates in NI from time to time, but is the party that big there? How many members of the Conservative & Unionist party are from Northern Ireland?
Or are they doing it because, you know, democracy?
They exist in NI and to their credit they do field candidates, although they obtain very few votes. It speaks well of them I think, and other GB parties should do likewise.
I see Johnson and Hunt are in Northern Ireland. I know that the Conservatives do field (some) candidates in NI from time to time, but is the party that big there? How many members of the Conservative & Unionist party are from Northern Ireland?
Or are they doing it because, you know, democracy?
They exist in NI and to their credit they do field candidates, although they obtain very few votes. It speaks well of them I think, and other GB parties should do likewise.
Yes, I've always liked that. I know they tend not to run in the border seats, but the Conservatives are the only party who field more than 631 candidates (usually about 640) in UK General Elections.
I do wish Labour and the Lib Dems would either do the same, or announce a formal alliance with the SDLP or the ...errr ... Alliance, so that NI was more integrated with the rest of the UK.
Labour is bound to VONC any PM who went for no deal, and ATM I can't see how Johnson, or Hunt for that matter, could survive. They only have a majority of 2 or 3 and there are more than 2 or 3 Tories who would support a VONC if it was the only alternative to no deal. I think the DUP would probably find a way to avoid supporting the Tories in those circumstances as well.
I agree. Which is why I will be surprised if a serious attempt to No Deal on 31 Oct is made. I think Johnson will opt for an extension and try to pass a deal in 2020.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB
How's he going to win an election with a policy of the WA?
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB.
My assessment of the probabilities -
10% - Leave with No Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 10% - Leave with Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 30% - GE in 2019 called or forced - Brexit outcome depends on GE outcome. 50% - Extension into 2020 agreed. No 2019 GE.
This from Henig, demolishes the FTA fantasies of Boris and Hunt and co.:
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
We've been round the block on this before but there is still no clarity on what an improved deal to replace the WA (as sought by Boris and Hunt among others) might look like, and no evidence that anyone connected with Brexit has the faintest idea what an FTA actually is. When they discuss it at all, they give the impression either that it is rule-free with nothing on standards and dispute resolution (so loss of sovereignty) or even that it is an agreement between governments to buy fixed quantities of each other's goods.
Labour is bound to VONC any PM who went for no deal, and ATM I can't see how Johnson, or Hunt for that matter, could survive. They only have a majority of 2 or 3 and there are more than 2 or 3 Tories who would support a VONC if it was the only alternative to no deal. I think the DUP would probably find a way to avoid supporting the Tories in those circumstances as well.
I agree. Which is why I will be surprised if a serious attempt to No Deal on 31 Oct is made. I think Johnson will opt for an extension and try to pass a deal in 2020.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB
How's he going to win an election with a policy of the WA?
He will win with a policy of Leave Deal or No Deal, with a majority he can then Leave with a Deal
This from Henig, demolishes the FTA fantasies of Boris and Hunt and co.:
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
We've been round the block on this before but there is still no clarity on what an improved deal to replace the WA (as sought by Boris and Hunt among others) might look like, and no evidence that anyone connected with Brexit has the faintest idea what an FTA actually is. When they discuss it at all, they give the impression either that it is rule-free with nothing on standards and dispute resolution (so loss of sovereignty) or even that it is an agreement between governments to buy fixed quantities of each other's goods.
Nope just more diehard Remainer whinging and refusal to accept Leave won on a platform for controlling our borders and regaining sovereignty which only a FTA can fully deliver. If not No Deal.
Boris who led the Leave campaign as PM will ensure that
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB.
My assessment of the probabilities -
10% - Leave with No Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 10% - Leave with Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 30% - GE in 2019 called or forced - Brexit outcome depends on GE outcome. 50% - Extension into 2020 agreed. No 2019 GE.
Boris won't ask for extension and Macron likely vetoes it anyway
One of the weaknesses of a No Deal Brexit Cabinet is that a lot of people who might have stayed loyal to retain their seat at the Cabinet table will be freer to oppose the government from the backbenches.
If there is a clear-out of middle-ranking Government ministers to reward those loyal to Boris and No Deal then the number of anti-No Deal Conservative rebels could grow considerably.
Ironical that Hammond may have more decisive influence as a backbencher than he has as Chancellor. I can see a very sizeable Tory rebellion if he's leading it on the basis that economic disaster is looming.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB.
My assessment of the probabilities -
10% - Leave with No Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 10% - Leave with Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 30% - GE in 2019 called or forced - Brexit outcome depends on GE outcome. 50% - Extension into 2020 agreed. No 2019 GE.
Boris won't ask for extension and Macron likely vetoes it anyway
The present infighting at the EC is likely to weaken the ability of a strong position by the EC in negotiating with the UK. This may in the end be good as it leads to a compromise by both sides.
I'd be very surprised if there are 12 Labour MPs who would support Boris in a VONC.
Betcha Kate Hoey would. And in extremis, all the pro-Leave Labours have to do is not turn up. They produce a Letter From Their Mum, not written by themselves in their left hand, honest, and pro-Leave Corbyn overlooks it. Everybody is happy...
Members won't. That is a fast track to deselection.
Ironical that Hammond may have more decisive influence as a backbencher than he has as Chancellor. I can see a very sizeable Tory rebellion if he's leading it on the basis that economic disaster is looming.
Shows why Remainer May and Remainer Hammond have been an absolute unmitigated disaster in negotiating Brexit so far.
Good riddance to the backbenches and if we need a purge of MPs like him in a VONC then so be it.
One of the weaknesses of a No Deal Brexit Cabinet is that a lot of people who might have stayed loyal to retain their seat at the Cabinet table will be freer to oppose the government from the backbenches.
If there is a clear-out of middle-ranking Government ministers to reward those loyal to Boris and No Deal then the number of anti-No Deal Conservative rebels could grow considerably.
Looking like one of the least intelligent government in years about as good as the labour front bench.
Labour is bound to VONC any PM who went for no deal, and ATM I can't see how Johnson, or Hunt for that matter, could survive. They only have a majority of 2 or 3 and there are more than 2 or 3 Tories who would support a VONC if it was the only alternative to no deal. I think the DUP would probably find a way to avoid supporting the Tories in those circumstances as well.
I agree. Which is why I will be surprised if a serious attempt to No Deal on 31 Oct is made. I think Johnson will opt for an extension and try to pass a deal in 2020.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
The sky diver doesn't like his parachute but the plane is over the drop zone. So he takes off his parachute and jumps anyway, planning to choose on his way down which of the other parachutes to wear.
Johnson will leave with No Deal and try to renegotiate a new Deal rather than extend again.
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB.
My assessment of the probabilities -
10% - Leave with No Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 10% - Leave with Deal on 31/10 without a GE. 30% - GE in 2019 called or forced - Brexit outcome depends on GE outcome. 50% - Extension into 2020 agreed. No 2019 GE.
On the latter, but why? Surely France will get bored and just veto the extension. As said here by others. We can't just keep extending and extending. Business CANNOT live with the uncertainty.
My firm does forecasting. Twelve month forecasting. How can you forecast ANYTHING when you don't know your tariffs and duties for the next six months, let alone twelve.
I think [1] October has to be D-Day. Either leave or don't. But no more faffing around.
[1] I see the flaw in my idea. No one in government does any thinking.
This from Henig, demolishes the FTA fantasies of Boris and Hunt and co.:
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
We've been round the block on this before but there is still no clarity on what an improved deal to replace the WA (as sought by Boris and Hunt among others) might look like, and no evidence that anyone connected with Brexit has the faintest idea what an FTA actually is. When they discuss it at all, they give the impression either that it is rule-free with nothing on standards and dispute resolution (so loss of sovereignty) or even that it is an agreement between governments to buy fixed quantities of each other's goods.
Nope just more diehard Remainer whinging and refusal to accept Leave won on a platform for controlling our borders and regaining sovereignty which only a FTA can fully deliver. If not No Deal.
Boris who led the Leave campaign as PM will ensure that
“Diehard Remainer”! Yay! It’s like watching a clock. Here’s a challenge for you, try going 24 hours without saying it. Try “Lethal Weapon Remainer” or “Edward Scissorhands Remainer” - there are loads of late 80s movies out there for you to use instead.
Boris won't ask for extension and Macron likely vetoes it anyway
I repeat - there is a 50% chance of an extension under PM Johnson.
Are you wearing ear muffs?
He isn't. I agree an extension is possible, but what the heck for. BXP will be at 40% in the polls if we extend again. Farage will be purple with rage. Sure, there isn't a GE till 2022, but every by-election is going to be nail biter, every local election turning into blood baths for the Cons. Boris will throw the towel in and No Deal, or a Remainer will take charge and Revoke and then General Election.
Please, please Sov, don't let us extend again. I can't bear it. (Channelling my inner Brenda there)
Amusing exchange from McDonnell & Hammond (you don't hear that very often). I finally got round to watching Chernobyl last night: the KGB head evokes McDonnell brilliantly - both in accent and message.
This from Henig, demolishes the FTA fantasies of Boris and Hunt and co.:
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
We've been round the block on this before but there is still no clarity on what an improved deal to replace the WA (as sought by Boris and Hunt among others) might look like, and no evidence that anyone connected with Brexit has the faintest idea what an FTA actually is. When they discuss it at all, they give the impression either that it is rule-free with nothing on standards and dispute resolution (so loss of sovereignty) or even that it is an agreement between governments to buy fixed quantities of each other's goods.
Nope just more diehard Remainer whinging and refusal to accept Leave won on a platform for controlling our borders and regaining sovereignty which only a FTA can fully deliver. If not No Deal.
Boris who led the Leave campaign as PM will ensure that
“Diehard Remainer”! Yay! It’s like watching a clock. Here’s a challenge for you, try going 24 hours without saying it. Try “Lethal Weapon Remainer” or “Edward Scissorhands Remainer” - there are loads of late 80s movies out there for you to use instead.
Ironical that Hammond may have more decisive influence as a backbencher than he has as Chancellor. I can see a very sizeable Tory rebellion if he's leading it on the basis that economic disaster is looming.
Opposition from Hammond, Gauke,Clark et al would also not provide a good backdrop for Boris going into a GE campaign.
Amusing exchange from McDonnell & Hammond (you don't hear that very often). I finally got round to watching Chernobyl last night: the KGB head evokes McDonnell brilliantly - both in accent and message.
In the world of UK manufacturing change is happening fast. Look at three companies JCB , Ford and Kier
JCB designs and manufactures in the UK and elsewhere and sells globally. It sales and profits are booming with the slide in the pound. Its global footprint means it can bypass most tariffs.
Ford designs in the UK and Germany for Europe and manufactures mostly in Spain and Germany. The UK is a big market for it and it is a large net importer. The combined collapse in the pound and UK customer confidence is creating a big hole it is struggling to fill. Jobs are being shed fast.
Kier is a large contractor to the UK Government principally on capital investment projects. It is on the verge of going bust due to delays on .
My company has benefited from selling a lot internationally and especially having a strong presence in Ireland which is booming. The drop in the pound has assisted our profits. The UK market is soft, the NHS is strapped for cash but competition is weak. Smaller competitors are finding it hard to raise money to invest and large MNCs are holding back.
The UK Government is dependent on corporate taxes and a small number of high earners for much of their income. At the same time the drop in the pound is hurting the NHS, Defence and other areas which use a lot of imported goods. In the new post Brexit vote market the UK Government has few friends internationally and at home amongst those who pay the bills. For those who depend on it and 80% of UK citizens get more than they pay in it is going to be a tough few years.
I think that Johnson, having finally made it to Number 10, will not want to risk being kicked out almost immediately. When the crunch comes I think he will opt for an extension into 2020 and will use the time to try and pass a deal.
The ERG hardliners will no doubt scream blue murder - but will they vote with Corbyn in a VONC and bring down the government? I doubt it. I think they will (reluctantly) acquiesce and give Johnson the time he will say he needs to get an acceptable deal.
I do wish Labour and the Lib Dems would either do the same, or announce a formal alliance with the SDLP or the ...errr ... Alliance, so that NI was more integrated with the rest of the UK.
Comments
That said, there’s at least a dozen flights a day between London and Belfast, surprising they didn’t just go with BA.
Would have been easier for Ryanair to fly the members over to the mainland.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1146017849116450817
"the question must be asked of those advocating an FTA, what are you prepared to concede in an FTA?"
"Trade isolation from the other countries in our continent isn’t yet the position of the UK leadership candidates, but only because they don’t seem to understand what an FTA would entail. Their vision suggests they still believe the UK holds all the cards, and there is a perfect deal available."
https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/
We are heading for No Deal and no trade arrangements for many years unless Tory MPs wake up and stop this madness. We are heading into very dark times.
How much do you need guys?
Meanwhile East European nations and Italy have vetoed a compromise Deal on the next Commission President being Dutch Labour MEP Timmermann
He gave you a photograph of the event...
More likely we get a general election which if Boris wins means he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed and go for a FTA for GB
I do wish Labour and the Lib Dems would either do the same, or announce a formal alliance with the SDLP or the ...errr ... Alliance, so that NI was more integrated with the rest of the UK.
I ask the UK not to waste this time...
Form: 7.5/10
Content: 2/10
Still chasing unicorns.
Oh and HYUFD - no NI poll.
Oh but of course we don’t believe him, right?
10% - Leave with No Deal on 31/10 without a GE.
10% - Leave with Deal on 31/10 without a GE.
30% - GE in 2019 called or forced - Brexit outcome depends on GE outcome.
50% - Extension into 2020 agreed. No 2019 GE.
Boris who led the Leave campaign as PM will ensure that
If there is a clear-out of middle-ranking Government ministers to reward those loyal to Boris and No Deal then the number of anti-No Deal Conservative rebels could grow considerably.
Are you wearing ear muffs?
1. Abortion
2. Gay marriage
Yes, Bozo. We all know what you get up to with your 'light sabre'.
Good riddance to the backbenches and if we need a purge of MPs like him in a VONC then so be it.
As said here by others. We can't just keep extending and extending. Business CANNOT live with the uncertainty.
My firm does forecasting. Twelve month forecasting. How can you forecast ANYTHING when you don't know your tariffs and duties for the next six months, let alone twelve.
I think [1] October has to be D-Day. Either leave or don't. But no more faffing around.
[1] I see the flaw in my idea. No one in government does any thinking.
BXP will be at 40% in the polls if we extend again. Farage will be purple with rage.
Sure, there isn't a GE till 2022, but every by-election is going to be nail biter, every local election turning into blood baths for the Cons. Boris will throw the towel in and No Deal, or a Remainer will take charge and Revoke and then General Election.
Please, please Sov, don't let us extend again. I can't bear it. (Channelling my inner Brenda there)
https://twitter.com/BBCParliament/status/1146033560584970242
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1146029383846649857
JCB designs and manufactures in the UK and elsewhere and sells globally. It sales and profits are booming with the slide in the pound. Its global footprint means it can bypass most tariffs.
Ford designs in the UK and Germany for Europe and manufactures mostly in Spain and Germany. The UK is a big market for it and it is a large net importer. The combined collapse in the pound and UK customer confidence is creating a big hole it is struggling to fill. Jobs are being shed fast.
Kier is a large contractor to the UK Government principally on capital investment projects. It is on the verge of going bust due to delays on .
My company has benefited from selling a lot internationally and especially having a strong presence in Ireland which is booming. The drop in the pound has assisted our profits. The UK market is soft, the NHS is strapped for cash but competition is weak. Smaller competitors are finding it hard to raise money to invest and large MNCs are holding back.
The UK Government is dependent on corporate taxes and a small number of high earners for much of their income. At the same time the drop in the pound is hurting the NHS, Defence and other areas which use a lot of imported goods. In the new post Brexit vote market the UK Government has few friends internationally and at home amongst those who pay the bills. For those who depend on it and 80% of UK citizens get more than they pay in it is going to be a tough few years.
I think that Johnson, having finally made it to Number 10, will not want to risk being kicked out almost immediately. When the crunch comes I think he will opt for an extension into 2020 and will use the time to try and pass a deal.
The ERG hardliners will no doubt scream blue murder - but will they vote with Corbyn in a VONC and bring down the government? I doubt it. I think they will (reluctantly) acquiesce and give Johnson the time he will say he needs to get an acceptable deal.
But I hope I'm wrong. I want that election!