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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    tlg86 said:

    F1 in being intensely stupid shocker:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48806595

    Silverstone's future as a venue is at risk because the bigwigs idiotically want a race in (or just outside) London. Yeah, let's risk a good circuit for an identikit street track in the same sodding country.

    Morons.

    Perhaps not pie in the sky:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40945691
    This isn’t news - Joe Saward has been reporting this for about a year
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    And the big news this morning is that those trade opportunities beyond Europe that the Brexiteers were so keen we should exploit appear to be opening up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48807161

    Opening up for the EU27 that is!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    ROFL - 11 hours a day - the poor wee mite. Less a snowflake more an avalanche.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    When I was at school, one of my teachers commuted from Grimsby (about 70-80 miles).

    What's that got to do with the price of fish?
    I could not plaice it either
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Telegraph hacks don't understand bookmakers' overrounds (profit margins) shock.

    There are signs that Mr Johnson's lead in the contest might be starting to slip. Over the weekend his implied probability of victory slipped from upwards of 90 per cent to below 85 per cent, while Mr Hunt's chances of winning increased to more than 20 per cent for the first time.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/29/next-prime-minister-odds-polls-boris-johnson-hunt-who-lead/

    More than 20 per cent + below 85 per cent = profit (or loss for backers).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    malcolmg said:

    When I was at school, one of my teachers commuted from Grimsby (about 70-80 miles).

    What's that got to do with the price of fish?
    I could not plaice it either
    I think that fell flat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Telegraph hacks don't understand bookmakers' overrounds (profit margins) shock.

    There are signs that Mr Johnson's lead in the contest might be starting to slip. Over the weekend his implied probability of victory slipped from upwards of 90 per cent to below 85 per cent, while Mr Hunt's chances of winning increased to more than 20 per cent for the first time.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/29/next-prime-minister-odds-polls-boris-johnson-hunt-who-lead/

    More than 20 per cent + below 85 per cent = profit (or loss for backers).

    If you put a tenner on Jeremy Hunt, you'll lose a tenner
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited June 2019

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    The detail is that he is little more than a puppet on a string and the Labour Party is no more than the thought processes of 4 people, nome of whom particularly wish the Labour Party well.

    The slightly more alarming point is the desire of those people to castrate and properly politicise the civil service so that any hint of independent advice disappears. People with knowledge of history will be familiar with thinking behind this.

    One never knows with these sorts of stories. I’m sure Mr Barker will explain that it’s all lies.

    Edit. I’m see that he has done, the Labour Party’s HYFUD. See no evil etc.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. 86, street circuit wibbling is just daft.

    Likewise the sport's stupid desire for a race in Miami, and a second Chinese circuit.

    The calendar's already full. It doesn't need inferior street circuits in countries that already have races, particularly when said races are actually at good circuits.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    matt said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    The detail is that he is little more than a puppet on a string and the Labour Party is no more than the thought processes of 4 people, nome of whom particularly wish the Labour Party well.

    The slightly more alarming point is the desire of those people to castrate and properly politicise the civil service so that any hint of independent advice disappears. People with knowledge of history will be familiar with thinking behind this.

    One never knows with these sorts of stories. I’m sure Mr Barker will explain that it’s all lies.

    Edit. I’m see that he has done, the Labour Party’s HYFUD. See no evil etc.
    We are already a fair way down that track, with the Blair and Cameron governments bringing in armies of SpAds and paying millions to management consultants because they are convinced the Civil Service is biased to the other side.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    Telegraph hacks don't understand bookmakers' overrounds (profit margins) shock.

    There are signs that Mr Johnson's lead in the contest might be starting to slip. Over the weekend his implied probability of victory slipped from upwards of 90 per cent to below 85 per cent, while Mr Hunt's chances of winning increased to more than 20 per cent for the first time.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/29/next-prime-minister-odds-polls-boris-johnson-hunt-who-lead/

    More than 20 per cent + below 85 per cent = profit (or loss for backers).

    If you put a tenner on Jeremy Hunt, you'll lose a tenner
    Probably but you never know with Boris. The biggest obstacle to his premiership is him, and he certainly has issues.

    It's not entirely inconceivable that he bails out at the last minute, so I'm not going "all in" on him until the final 24-48 hours, and perhaps not even then.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    How many shifts per week, though? And how much is 'pressure time'; are you out life-saving all the 12 hours, every 12 hours?

    The big issue, I suspect, having 'watched' GP's at work is that you don't know what's going to walk through the surgery door next, and each time you've 10 minutes to assess and make a decision about whatever it is.
    And many of the patients will expect you to have instant recall of the issues involved.
    Think it would be easier writing a prescription than climbing up ladders with hoses whilst flames are all around.
    Could still be stressful but they do get paid shedloads and can afford to take several nice holidays as per original post.
    Not terribly easy telling people they are terminally ill, or going to have to have brutal treatment that will permanently disfigure them, or that they're going to progressively lose the ability to walk.

    Which all GPs have to do on a regular - even daily - basis.

    Must be soul destroying. I work long hours under difficult conditions but no way could I deal with that.
    Challenging though that all is, they knew (or at least should have known) what the job entails before they went into it. It’s not like medicine is an undersubscribed course at universities, plenty of people want to do it.
    It's easy to think at 18 you will be able to cope, and to find out at 30 you thought wrong.

    Cf teaching...
    And, at least until recently, it seemed glamorous.

    And, to be fair, when it's rewarding, emotionally, it can be very so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    DavidL said:

    As someone is self employed I can sometimes work 18 hours a day and sometimes 3 or 4, most of it on PB. I have been doing this for nearly 20 years now and it took quite some time to break old habits of core working hours and feeling the guilt that a time sheet used to give you. The key is to actually allow yourself to relax when the opportunity arises and make the flexibility work for you.

    I would really struggle working regular hours again. Its one of the reasons (apart from incompetence) that I have not sought judicial office of any kind. I am fortunate and from my fortunate vantage find it bizarre that so many employers still focus on attendance instead of results. I have noted more employers accepting more flexible arrangements but it is still an absurdly rare exception.

    It is very slow to change.

    One reason, I think, is that flexible working is still something conceded (and somewhat reluctantly at times) to only working mothers with young kids.

    For it to take off, it really has to be embraced by men - who still dominate most professional employers - at all ages, particularly the ones in senior management positions who are of a different generation tend to set the culture of their firms.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    DavidL said:

    As someone is self employed I can sometimes work 18 hours a day and sometimes 3 or 4, most of it on PB. I have been doing this for nearly 20 years now and it took quite some time to break old habits of core working hours and feeling the guilt that a time sheet used to give you. The key is to actually allow yourself to relax when the opportunity arises and make the flexibility work for you.

    I would really struggle working regular hours again. Its one of the reasons (apart from incompetence) that I have not sought judicial office of any kind. I am fortunate and from my fortunate vantage find it bizarre that so many employers still focus on attendance instead of results. I have noted more employers accepting more flexible arrangements but it is still an absurdly rare exception.

    Totally agree. Positive results delivered on time are what I judge my team in. I don’t care where they do the job, as long as they do it.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Foxy said:

    According to the BBC, The Times has a headline suggesting that 'A Times investigation claims senior civil servants are increasingly concerned about Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's health. The paper says officials warned Mr Corbyn, 70, may be forced to stand down from the job because he was not "physically or mentally" fit for it, and had become "too frail". A party spokesman said Mr Corbyn was in good health and led an active life.'

    Hmmm.

    Colour me sceptical. It would be extremely unusual for civil servants to express opinions about the state of health (or indeed anything else about) politicians. To then casually talk to the press about it is even more unlikely.
    I smell a rat too.

    There are many reasons to think Jezza is unsuited to be PM, but physical health and mental stamina are not amongst them. He has a healthy lifestyle and appears to be in robust health.
    How do you know?

    Have you met him? Do you work with him up close daily? Have you seen him in meetings? Or have you just seen him in short TV spots and interviews, and doing the odd stump speech?

    It's more likely you just don't want to believe the conclusion, so are looking for reasons to dismiss the article.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    When I was at school, one of my teachers commuted from Grimsby (about 70-80 miles).

    What's that got to do with the price of fish?
    I could not plaice it either
    You are the life and sole of the party aren't you....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I dont know why David even brings up the Williamson story - Labour go through an anti semitism crisis period every 4-5 months and have done for years now. Peoples minds are made up on the subject and whenever it comes up again it just briefly resuscitates the issue and then the MPs shut up again. Hell, not even the defections affected the cycle.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    Well, you're clearly not a teacher. We don't have the luxury of short days like that.

    (Imagine that said with a Yorkshire accent, while I'm sipping a brandy.)
    As a teacher, I suspect that you didn’t have a four hour commute.

    (References lakes and gravel)
    Four hours each way, or four hours total?

    One of my colleagues does indeed have a two hour commute into work and the same home again.

    Yes, I think he's mad as well.
    That’s potty. One of the few remaining joys of teaching is being able to work outside cities and avoid long commutes.
    I can cycle to work. After years of long commutes all over the country, especially to the shi....London, it's blissful.

    No way do I ever want to go back to the long distance commutes I had in my 20s.
    Your very wise. I’ve done 13 years of that, which is about 13 years too long. The latest sickness is a casualisation (if that’s a word) of European working. Whilst a bit of travel is fine, what’s weird is the expectation that you can fit in one/two day trips to places like Berlin as if it were just a normal working day.
    I commute two hour each way, every day, to London from Hampshire. Ok when the trains are ok, but five days in a row of that is exhausting.

    I'm trying to regularly work one day a week from home, so I can spend a bit of time with my baby and help my wife.

    It's easier to do now even than three to four years ago, when you'd have got lots of jokes and comments, but on the other hand the train service is much worse.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. 86, street circuit wibbling is just daft.

    Likewise the sport's stupid desire for a race in Miami, and a second Chinese circuit.

    The calendar's already full. It doesn't need inferior street circuits in countries that already have races, particularly when said races are actually at good circuits.

    Street circuits maximise revenue so they are "good" for the organisers.

    Just move to MotoGP fandom. It's impossible to run those on street courses as everyone would die.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    12 hour shifts are a fact of life for thousands of workers, not many of whom will be on anything near the pay of a GP. As my employer likes to tell me if she doesn't like the conditions, she can find another job.
    Your employer is an arsehole.
    People don't quit their jobs. They quit their bosses.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    YouGov are helping covering all the bases so everyone is happy...

    People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.

    It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...

    Where are you on this? Surely you can see Labour have a teensy weensy problem. To win power from opposition you have to be 10-20 points clear.
    Labour might well be the largest party, and able to get confidence and supply from Lib Dems and SNP, but they are nowhere near an overall majority.
    On such an arrangement, the Liberal Democrats would be likely to quickly lose the soft Conservative votes they'd just won over in the South.

    An exact inversion of what happened to them during the coalition years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I see the loony right got a bloody nose in the David Gaulke constituency vote.

    They got a sizable vote in a seat held by a major remainer figure. It might indicate they are an easy majority in other seats. Which means deselection of Gauke like figures may not happen, but they already make up the authentic voice of the party overall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    According to the BBC, The Times has a headline suggesting that 'A Times investigation claims senior civil servants are increasingly concerned about Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's health. The paper says officials warned Mr Corbyn, 70, may be forced to stand down from the job because he was not "physically or mentally" fit for it, and had become "too frail". A party spokesman said Mr Corbyn was in good health and led an active life.'

    Hmmm.

    Colour me sceptical. It would be extremely unusual for civil servants to express opinions about the state of health (or indeed anything else about) politicians. To then casually talk to the press about it is even more unlikely.
    I smell a rat too.

    There are many reasons to think Jezza is unsuited to be PM, but physical health and mental stamina are not amongst them. He has a healthy lifestyle and appears to be in robust health.
    Agreed, we should all be so lucky.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Indeed but I'm going out on a limb here and suggesting the average family is lucky to take one holiday a year, not three or more every six months.
    If you are working long stressful hours over long periods breaks are critical to avoid serious mental illness. Holidays are good things whether you’re a GP or average family. Silly to argue otherwise.
    And very important to switch the phone off and not take it with you.

    It's still very common (in fact, the norm) for people to put an out-of-office on, and say "I will be on leave and only checking emails periodically", and then take their phone, and then check their emails daily.

    They thus deny themselves any mental break. I have told both clients and past team leaders of mine to stop doing it, both for themselves and for the culture of similar expectation they set for their teams.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    This morning's second biggest story, this time from The Daily Telegraph:

    :"George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat"

    The seat in question is Kensinton, where Labour currently has a majority of 20.

    Wont be a marginal next time I'd bet. And Osborne wont help that. Even with the MP being who they are .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    What do you do?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    Well, you're clearly not a teacher. We don't have the luxury of short days like that.

    (Imagine that said with a Yorkshire accent, while I'm sipping a brandy.)
    As a teacher, I suspect that you didn’t have a four hour commute.

    (References lakes and gravel)
    Four hours each way, or four hours total?

    One of my colleagues does indeed have a two hour commute into work and the same home again.

    Yes, I think he's mad as well.
    That’s potty. One of the few remaining joys of teaching is being able to work outside cities and avoid long commutes.
    I can cycle to work. After years of long commutes all over the country, especially to the shi....London, it's blissful.

    No way do I ever want to go back to the long distance commutes I had in my 20s.
    Your very wise. I’ve done 13 years of that, which is about 13 years too long. The latest sickness is a casualisation (if that’s a word) of European working. Whilst a bit of travel is fine, what’s weird is the expectation that you can fit in one/two day trips to places like Berlin as if it were just a normal working day.
    I commute two hour each way, every day, to London from Hampshire. Ok when the trains are ok, but five days in a row of that is exhausting.

    I'm trying to regularly work one day a week from home, so I can spend a bit of time with my baby and help my wife.

    It's easier to do now even than three to four years ago, when you'd have got lots of jokes and comments, but on the other hand the train service is much worse.
    My wife retired 18 months or so before I did shortly before we'd found our ideal retirement cottage. However, as a result I had a daily 40 (at least) minute commute. Until then it had been 15 or so. However, I felt it was worth it for the house, and the place where we were planning to live and indeed, it has been.
    That was nearly 20 years ago, though. The roads are worse now.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    12 hour shifts are a fact of life for thousands of workers, not many of whom will be on anything near the pay of a GP. As my employer likes to tell me if she doesn't like the conditions, she can find another job.
    Your employer is an arsehole.
    People don't quit their jobs. They quit their bosses.
    An astute comment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Ace, short-sighted from the bigwigs, though. Paywalls and bland circuits drive down audiences and sponsorship.

    I happened to catch a tiny bit of MotoGP whilst channel-hopping a while ago. It was pretty entertaining, but I don't think I have time to properly follow two motorsports.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dura_Ace said:



    Has pb's on-staff medical team noticed Corbyn looking particularly knackered at PMQs?

    He's always looked at least 10-15 years older than he actually is.

    Putin is looking old (and more weird than normal) at the G20.
    I'd put corbyn a few years younger than he is actually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. 86, street circuit wibbling is just daft.

    Likewise the sport's stupid desire for a race in Miami, and a second Chinese circuit.

    The calendar's already full. It doesn't need inferior street circuits in countries that already have races, particularly when said races are actually at good circuits.

    Street circuits maximise revenue so they are "good" for the organisers.

    Just move to MotoGP fandom. It's impossible to run those on street courses as everyone would die.
    Much more entertaining too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    What do you do?
    Exotic dance.

    In truth boringly, digital product management.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    YouGov are helping covering all the bases so everyone is happy...

    People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.

    It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...

    Where are you on this? Surely you can see Labour have a teensy weensy problem. To win power from opposition you have to be 10-20 points clear.
    Labour might well be the largest party, and able to get confidence and supply from Lib Dems and SNP, but they are nowhere near an overall majority.
    On such an arrangement, the Liberal Democrats would be likely to quickly lose the soft Conservative votes they'd just won over in the South.

    An exact inversion of what happened to them during the coalition years.
    If the LibDems are pushing Labour toward killing off Brexit, those Tory remainers wont be unhappy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    12 hour shifts are a fact of life for thousands of workers, not many of whom will be on anything near the pay of a GP. As my employer likes to tell me if she doesn't like the conditions, she can find another job.
    Your employer is an arsehole.
    People don't quit their jobs. They quit their bosses.
    Very true. Guilty.

    On your other points...

    You’re absolutely spot on email, currently on a mission to get people to switch off. Truly toxic to check emails after hours or on leave.

    My commute is similar to yours. Southern rather than South West trains. You have my sympathy.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    F1: Hulkenberg gets a five place grid penalty, but it is for a move to an upgraded engine, so swings and roundabouts.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Here in Finland there's a disturbing trend of people just not answering calls from an unknown UK number (+44) because they are so often scam calls. So our roaming calls go unanswered yet the same number responds promptly to a call from a local SIM card, and also to foreign but non-UK calls. Several people here have confirmed that that is how they respond. This is surprisingly common, and it is not good for our reputation. Needless to say some people think the scam calls are to do with Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. W, that's a bit disturbing.

    Usually (though it's a small sample size) scam calls I've received have been from people with heavy Indian accents, but I think the numbers were British (could be mistaken). It's the old 'I am from Windows and your computer has a problem' nonsense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Averaging the data across a month, to give the impression of a static position during a month that hasn’t exactly been quiet on the politics front, is somewhat risky.

    For example, from the YouGov figures it looks as if BXP support has drifted a little during the month, which seems reasonable given their prominence in late May’s political headlines compared to near absence from the news this last month. Mori as good as admitted they need to change their prompting after their last poll, and their 12% looks like an outlier (although the fact that its rating depends so heavily on prompting suggests that BXP support may be rather fragile). Otherwise the 20-23% range seems credible. Say 21%.

    If Mori is low on BXP, their ratings for other parties are going to be too high and need to be shaded down. On this basis the end month position for the Tories looks 20-24%, with all recent polls within MoE of 22%.

    As David highlights, we are left with the single anomaly that YouGov scores Labour lower and the LibDems (and marginally the Greens) higher. The people YouGov is polling appear more energised by the EU/remain issue, by switching from Lab to LD/Green, than are those captured by other pollsters. YouGov can’t avoid polling people who spend more time online, however hard they try to slip political questions in at the end of surveys on skin conditions or shopping habits, and my guess is that these people are following the twists and turns of Brexit more closely than are people responding to the occasional polls from the other companies, some of which use the telephone (weren’t the more accurate EU election polls done by phone)?

    My instinct is that the other companies are nearer the mark and we are probably looking at Lab 25%, Con 22%, BXP 21%, LibDem 17%, Green 7%. So one small consolation for the principal opposition party is that they are, just, in the lead, as they ought to be right now.

    The problem with analysing polling data is that we've no idea whether they're right or not.

    Therefore analysis degenerates rapidly into 'how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?'
    Of course. But it never does any harm to think around the figures a little. Makes a change from just plugging the best one into Baxter and posting the result, anyway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    YouGov are helping covering all the bases so everyone is happy...

    People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.

    It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...

    Where are you on this? Surely you can see Labour have a teensy weensy problem. To win power from opposition you have to be 10-20 points clear.
    Labour might well be the largest party, and able to get confidence and supply from Lib Dems and SNP, but they are nowhere near an overall majority.
    On such an arrangement, the Liberal Democrats would be likely to quickly lose the soft Conservative votes they'd just won over in the South.

    An exact inversion of what happened to them during the coalition years.
    Even C and S would require new leadership of either party, no way would LDs support Jezza or Bozza.

    Not worth speculating on until we know the exact numbers. In 2010 the numbers fell to make only one option viable. Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government, particularly compared to the omnishambles that followed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    YouGov are helping covering all the bases so everyone is happy...

    People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.

    It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...

    Where are you on this? Surely you can see Labour have a teensy weensy problem. To win power from opposition you have to be 10-20 points clear.
    Labour might well be the largest party, and able to get confidence and supply from Lib Dems and SNP, but they are nowhere near an overall majority.
    On such an arrangement, the Liberal Democrats would be likely to quickly lose the soft Conservative votes they'd just won over in the South.

    An exact inversion of what happened to them during the coalition years.
    Even C and S would require new leadership of either party, no way would LDs support Jezza or Bozza.

    Not worth speculating on until we know the exact numbers. In 2010 the numbers fell to make only one option viable. Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government, particularly compared to the omnishambles that followed.
    All previous governments compare favourably to this.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    kle4 said:

    This morning's second biggest story, this time from The Daily Telegraph:

    :"George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat"

    The seat in question is Kensinton, where Labour currently has a majority of 20.

    Wont be a marginal next time I'd bet. And Osborne wont help that. Even with the MP being who they are .
    Dent-Coad is awful, perhaps exceeded only in her awfulness by the Conservative administration on RBKC. Osborne would be an improvement as a rare grown-up.

    Meanwhile, I’m intrigued as to where this Times hatchet job on Corbyn is coming from. I wonder whether Labour leadership candidates are getting restless...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    kle4 said:

    This morning's second biggest story, this time from The Daily Telegraph:

    :"George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat"

    The seat in question is Kensinton, where Labour currently has a majority of 20.

    Wont be a marginal next time I'd bet. And Osborne wont help that. Even with the MP being who they are .
    Dent-Coad is awful, perhaps exceeded only in her awfulness by the Conservative administration on RBKC. Osborne would be an improvement as a rare grown-up.

    Meanwhile, I’m intrigued as to where this Times hatchet job on Corbyn is coming from. I wonder whether Labour leadership candidates are getting restless...
    If the Corbynites force a deputy leadership contest, then expect a leadership one too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,709
    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:


    Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government

    This golden period of good government: what was your personal highlight? Lansley's NHS reforms? Gove's war with history teachers? IDS's universal credit? Decimating the armed forces? Flat-lining the economy? Axing 20,000 coppers?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    edited June 2019
    Jonathan said:

    <

    Very true. Guilty.

    On your other points...

    You’re absolutely spot on email, currently on a mission to get people to switch off. Truly toxic to check emails after hours or on leave.

    My commute is similar to yours. Southern rather than South West trains. You have my sympathy.



    I think that there are too many generalisations on what makes people relax. A friend tells me that BUPA believe that keys to a good life include a rural location, frequent outdoor walks and not working in an office. Personally I've always had hay fever and being in a rural area or outside in the country makes me feel uneasy and unsettled, while being indoors in a familiar environment makes me feel good. Similarly, my comfort zone is being on my laptop chatting to friends, debating politics and other things, playing games, etc., and I feel deprived if I'm out of wifi range. I like being in the office and keeping in email touch on holiday with my pleasant job, just out of interest. No reason why anyone should feel the same, but we can't generalise for each other.

    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited June 2019

    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)

    Best commute I ever had was the train to Paddington. 1hr15 on a fast train, always got a seat, plenty of time to read or work. Loved it.

    Worst commute I ever had was the following 20 minutes of getting across London by tube. Bike was marginally better but stressful (to be fair, cycling in London has improved greatly by then - thanks, much though it pains me to admit it, largely to Boris).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Borough, you might say Corbyn is present, but not involved.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To paraphrase Doctor Who, don’t you think he looks tired?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.

    I still can't believe they gave the project to somebody with no qualifications in engineering or architecture who ended up putting the smoke vents in the floor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:


    Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government

    This golden period of good government: what was your personal highlight? Lansley's NHS reforms? Gove's war with history teachers? IDS's universal credit? Decimating the armed forces? Flat-lining the economy? Axing 20,000 coppers?
    No those were all under Tory control. I would cite Lamb's work on Social Care and Mental Health Davey at employment, Davey at environment, the pupil premium, the raising of tax thresholds, pensions reforms etc.

    Sure there were difficult compromises, but perhaps apart from Labour's 1997-2001 term, the best government of my lifetime.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Foxy said:


    Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government

    This golden period of good government: what was your personal highlight? Lansley's NHS reforms? Gove's war with history teachers? IDS's universal credit? Decimating the armed forces? Flat-lining the economy? Axing 20,000 coppers?
    That's a little unfair on Gove.

    He was at war with all teachers.

    It was that useless **** Spielman who especially screwed over history teachers.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    Jonathan said:

    <

    Very true. Guilty.

    On your other points...

    You’re absolutely spot on email, currently on a mission to get people to switch off. Truly toxic to check emails after hours or on leave.

    My commute is similar to yours. Southern rather than South West trains. You have my sympathy.




    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)
    Anyone spending 4 hours a day driving to work every day must be certifiable. It's basically doing 12 hour days for 8 hours output.
    That said, if you made me do it, I'd take the country road option every time - much more enjoyable, much easier to keep your concentration, much less likely to all go very badly wrong and end up an hour late because of a traffic jam. I currently do 30 mins each way across the Peak District, and whilst I'd rather drive less, it's not much of an imposition.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Foxy said:


    Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government

    This golden period of good government: what was your personal highlight? Lansley's NHS reforms? Gove's war with history teachers? IDS's universal credit? Decimating the armed forces? Flat-lining the economy? Axing 20,000 coppers?
    Even with your little bit of spin on it, coalition still a golden period in comparison with what’s now blowing towards us...
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    12 hour shifts are a fact of life for thousands of workers, not many of whom will be on anything near the pay of a GP. As my employer likes to tell me if she doesn't like the conditions, she can find another job.
    Your employer is an arsehole.
    People don't quit their jobs. They quit their bosses.
    In my case quite literally - I really like my job, have got fed up with the bosses, so am currently negotiating buying out my bit of the business from them...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
    It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

    OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    These people do not exist. They have never existed. There are no Labour camps...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    The 2 most recent polls though are from Yougov and Ipsos Mori and they were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections, both having the Brexit Party ahead and the LDs in second, not Labour. Survation had Labour second in the European Parliament elections ahead of the LDs as did Opinium and Comres and BMG so the fact Labour still leads with them does not mean much.

    The latest Yougov has the Tories tied for the lead with the Brexit Party and the latest Ipsos Mori has the Tories ahead outright. Both have Labour still second but with the LDs much closer to them than other polls and around the 20% mark. I suspect that is where we are now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
    It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

    OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
    Should that not be thanks to, rather than ‘despite’ ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)

    Best commute I ever had was the train to Paddington. 1hr15 on a fast train, always got a seat, plenty of time to read or work. Loved it.

    Worst commute I ever had was the following 20 minutes of getting across London by tube. Bike was marginally better but stressful (to be fair, cycling in London has improved greatly by then - thanks, much though it pains me to admit it, largely to Boris).
    Twenty mins drive to castle Cary station 1 40 into paddington tube to London bridge and ten mins walk to more London place. After eight years said sod it and went to Spain.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)

    Best commute I ever had was the train to Paddington. 1hr15 on a fast train, always got a seat, plenty of time to read or work. Loved it.

    Worst commute I ever had was the following 20 minutes of getting across London by tube. Bike was marginally better but stressful (to be fair, cycling in London has improved greatly by then - thanks, much though it pains me to admit it, largely to Boris).
    Best commute I ever had was Macclesfield to Euston, first class on the Pullman, kippers for breakfast. Did it for 18 months. Mondays and Thursdays.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Nigelb said:
    The first story on that page is an equally interesting read on our Brexit mess and the fallacy it is based upon https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/06/25/commentary/world-commentary/u-k-s-giant-delusion-sovereign-control/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    The 2 most recent polls though are from Yougov and Ipsos Mori and they were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections, both having the Brexit Party ahead and the LDs in second, not Labour. Survation had Labour second in the European Parliament elections ahead of the LDs as did Opinium and Comres and BMG so the fact Labour still leads with them does not mean much.

    The latest Yougov has the Tories tied for the lead with the Brexit Party and the latest Ipsos Mori has the Tories ahead outright. Both have Labour still second but with the LDs much closer to them than other polls and around the 20% mark. I suspect that is where we are now.

    Is it not a case of one party with media coverage, the other without? 2 parties currently have leadership elections on. If a GE broke out tomorrow you do think Labour would get a big bounce with the extra coverage like they did 2017?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

    The assumption the Tories were going to win anyway led those who would normally vote Labour to still do so despite Corbyn because (a) they don't like Tories and (b) Corbyn wasn't going to win anyway so no risk of him becoming PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
    It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

    OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
    Is that not just the law of diminishing returns?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited June 2019

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    If it helps -

    I am a hard left social democrat who (broadly) likes the policy direction that Corbyn has ushered in but is not overly enamoured of the man himself. I have reservations as to his intellect and his temperament (but not his character).

    I hope Labour pivot to Ref2 in the event of a Brexit general election, but I will be voting for them regardless - as I did in 2017 and as I have in all elections in my lifetime, barring a bit of freestyling in locals every now and again.

    My support for Labour's 'fight inequality' agenda outweighs (easily) my concerns about the leader and it trumps my Remain 'identity'.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
    It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

    OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
    Is that not just the law of diminishing returns?
    Nope it's the fact we use cheap flexible labour as a substitute for investment...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    kinabalu said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Agreed.

    I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
    It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

    OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
    That's not a graph of productivity but of productivity change between 2010 and 2018 and which shows all the Western European countries struggling on productivity growth.

    Though there certainly is a point where extra hours worked leads to a decline in productivity per hour.

    The problem is that point varies between people, occupations and countries.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

    Indeed, and it wasnt even against May, it was against Brexit. Hence that vote shifting to LD and Green. There is a chance Labour get that vote back in certain regions if Boris looks likely to win a no deal mandate, but in other regions the vote will break LD, who will look more credible than they were in 2017.

    The interesting Corbyn related group seem to me to be the pre momentum, pro EU Labour members, who voted for Corbyn in both his leadership elections, are they still with him?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    eek said:

    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.

    The Times is working for a Labour government?

    Deep!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    Given that the UK has a £90bn+ trade deficit in goods in the single market are you sure that this free trade policy is working for the British economy ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.
    Like Ed Miliband was.

    EICIPM or not.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    Given that the UK has a £90bn+ trade deficit in goods in the single market are you sure that this free trade policy is working for the British economy ?
    We run trade deficits because our economy is not strong enough to support our lifestyle without selling off assets and acquiring debt. Leaving the EU will make our economy weaker, we are unlikely to change our lifestyle tastes significantly downwards so our overall trade deficit will likely increase. Whether that goes to the EU, China, US or elsewhere is not particularly important.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    edited June 2019

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

    Indeed, and it wasnt even against May, it was against Brexit. Hence that vote shifting to LD and Green. There is a chance Labour get that vote back in certain regions if Boris looks likely to win a no deal mandate, but in other regions the vote will break LD, who will look more credible than they were in 2017.

    The interesting Corbyn related group seem to me to be the pre momentum, pro EU Labour members, who voted for Corbyn in both his leadership elections, are they still with him?
    Largely yes, I think, but with considerable unease over the poll ratings - we still like him and want him to win, but wonder if the strategy will work out. Our local membership is stable but the vote this week on the "endorse Remain" motion circulating among CLPs was typical - everyone wants a new referendum with a Remain option (which has been promised by the leadership), but we are narrowly against binding the party to endorse Remain regardless of the alternative - although we are 80% Remain, it seems illogical to say we'll try to negotiate a better deal and then campaign against it.

    Incidentally, members in my experience largely discount the MPs muttering about Williamson etc. - the "there they go again" comment is common, because they linked it specifically to Corbyn, making it look more like an anti-Corbyn move than an anti-Williamson protest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.
    Even if Starmer were Labour leader backing EUref2 Labour would only be 1% ahead of a Boris led Tory Party with Yougov yesterday
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited June 2019

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

    Indeed, and it wasnt even against May, it was against Brexit. Hence that vote shifting to LD and Green. There is a chance Labour get that vote back in certain regions if Boris looks likely to win a no deal mandate, but in other regions the vote will break LD, who will look more credible than they were in 2017.

    The interesting Corbyn related group seem to me to be the pre momentum, pro EU Labour members, who voted for Corbyn in both his leadership elections, are they still with him?
    Largely yes, I think, but with considerable unease over the poll ratings - we still like him and want him to win, but wonder if the strategy will work out. Our local membership is stable but the vote this week on the "endorse Remain" motion circulating among CLPs was typical - everyone wants a new referendum with a Remain option (which has been promised by the leadership), but we are narrowly against binding the party to endorse Remain regardless of the alternative - although we are 80% Remain, it seems illogical to say we'll try to negotiate a better deal and then campaign against it.
    It is - but is it really necessary. I would switch my general election vote from the Lib Dems to Labour (I live in a Labour leave seat) if there is an guarantee of a second referendum with a remain option before we leave our limbo status quo - it's insane to commit to what you will campaign for before you know what the other option is...

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    One of the difficulties working out what is going on with Labour is that we hear from the wrong people. We hear from two groups: those who have always loathed Jeremy Corbyn and those who still would throw their cloak in front of him to stop him walking into a puddle. But the key group to hear from is the group who opted for him in 2017 and currently have lost faith in him. What are they thinking?

    But we never hear from them.

    The explanation is probably a simple one: they did not opt for Corbyn, they voted against May.

    Indeed, and it wasnt even against May, it was against Brexit. Hence that vote shifting to LD and Green. There is a chance Labour get that vote back in certain regions if Boris looks likely to win a no deal mandate, but in other regions the vote will break LD, who will look more credible than they were in 2017.

    The interesting Corbyn related group seem to me to be the pre momentum, pro EU Labour members, who voted for Corbyn in both his leadership elections, are they still with him?
    Largely yes, I think, but with considerable unease over the poll ratings - we still like him and want him to win, but wonder if the strategy will work out. Our local membership is stable but the vote this week on the "endorse Remain" motion circulating among CLPs was typical - everyone wants a new referendum with a Remain option (which has been promised by the leadership), but we are narrowly against binding the party to endorse Remain regardless of the alternative - although we are 80% Remain, it seems illogical to say we'll try to negotiate a better deal and then campaign against it.
    The Labour party dont necessarily need to endorse Remain. They do need to be clear and have their senior team stop spinning against each other. A second referendum and a free vote would be clear. Going for CU&SM without a second ref would be clear. Being anti the WA whilst not giving clarity on a single alternative course of action is terrible.

    Corbyn is the wrong leader for many reasons, not least the anti-semitism, but much of his agenda could be delivered with a different leader.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.

    [thumping the table repeatedly] I HAVE BEEN CHEATED OUT OF MY CROSSRAIL!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    Given that the UK has a £90bn+ trade deficit in goods in the single market are you sure that this free trade policy is working for the British economy ?
    We run trade deficits because our economy is not strong enough to support our lifestyle without selling off assets and acquiring debt. Leaving the EU will make our economy weaker, we are unlikely to change our lifestyle tastes significantly downwards so our overall trade deficit will likely increase. Whether that goes to the EU, China, US or elsewhere is not particularly important.
    So we're doomed but lets not change the free trade strategy because that might be risky ???

    The UK is a consumerholic and ever more free trade is the equivalent of more pubs and off licences being available to an alcoholic.

    Perhaps with a bit less free trade the UK will become a more functioning consumerholic and produce more of the stuff we consume ourselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.
    Even if Starmer were Labour leader backing EUref2 Labour would only be 1% ahead of a Boris led Tory Party with Yougov yesterday
    If there is a lesson from the lead it is that we can't take too much from the polls. That 17% rating for the Tories is wipeout territory, whereas that first place on 26% could mean largest party. And both in the same month.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Foxy said:

    <

    Even C and S would require new leadership of either party, no way would LDs support Jezza or Bozza.

    Not worth speculating on until we know the exact numbers. In 2010 the numbers fell to make only one option viable. Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government, particularly compared to the omnishambles that followed.

    I think voters will want a hint. It seems likely that there will be no overall majority, and quite likely that the only people in a position to form a government are Jezza and Bozza, but only with at least C and S from the LibDems. Possible LibDem positions before the election:

    1. In that situation we will offer C and S to Bozza, if we get concessions.
    2. In that situation we will offer C and S to Jezza, if we get concessions.
    3. We will refuse both and force yet another election.
    4. We might do 1 or 2, we'll have to see after the election.
    5. We're not telling you, so there.

    4 seems logical, but reduces tactical support from people who really dislike Bozza and/or Jezza. 3 sounds wearisome. 1 or 2 will thoroughly alienate half the potential tactical vote while inspiring the other half. 5 will annoy everyone.

    I suspect they'll go for 4, as the course of least resistance, with a cover of "Actually we hope for an overall majority ourselves".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.

    [thumping the table repeatedly] I HAVE BEEN CHEATED OUT OF MY CROSSRAIL!
    Why? Did its mood improve?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.

    [thumping the table repeatedly] I HAVE BEEN CHEATED OUT OF MY CROSSRAIL!
    What happened was, you drifted right through the core systems, and it's really just blind luck that a deep salvage team found you when they did. It's one in a thousand, really. I think you're damn lucky to be alive, Sunil. You could be floating out there forever.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Jonathan said:

    <

    Very true. Guilty.

    On your other points...

    You’re absolutely spot on email, currently on a mission to get people to switch off. Truly toxic to check emails after hours or on leave.

    My commute is similar to yours. Southern rather than South West trains. You have my sympathy.



    I think that there are too many generalisations on what makes people relax. A friend tells me that BUPA believe that keys to a good life include a rural location, frequent outdoor walks and not working in an office. Personally I've always had hay fever and being in a rural area or outside in the country makes me feel uneasy and unsettled, while being indoors in a familiar environment makes me feel good. Similarly, my comfort zone is being on my laptop chatting to friends, debating politics and other things, playing games, etc., and I feel deprived if I'm out of wifi range. I like being in the office and keeping in email touch on holiday with my pleasant job, just out of interest. No reason why anyone should feel the same, but we can't generalise for each other.

    There are commutes and commutes, too. Two hours by car on twisting country roads is a pain (in my opinion), two hours on a straight motorway not so bad, and two hours in an uncrowded train or on a plane is almost as good as being at home - you can read, use the laptop, etc. Other opinions are available. :)
    Yes, but you're a bona fide weirdo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kinabalu said:

    I am a hard left social democrat who (broadly) likes the policy direction that Corbyn has ushered in but is not overly enamoured of the man himself. I have reservations as to his intellect and his temperament (but not his character).

    I have no such reservations.

    I fear I have only certainties.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    12 hour shifts are a fact of life for thousands of workers, not many of whom will be on anything near the pay of a GP. As my employer likes to tell me if she doesn't like the conditions, she can find another job.
    Your employer is an arsehole.
    People don't quit their jobs. They quit their bosses.
    Very true. Guilty.

    On your other points...

    You’re absolutely spot on email, currently on a mission to get people to switch off. Truly toxic to check emails after hours or on leave.

    My commute is similar to yours. Southern rather than South West trains. You have my sympathy.



    Thanks. Something we both share in common!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    YouGov are helping covering all the bases so everyone is happy...

    People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.

    It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...

    Where are you on this? Surely you can see Labour have a teensy weensy problem. To win power from opposition you have to be 10-20 points clear.
    Labour might well be the largest party, and able to get confidence and supply from Lib Dems and SNP, but they are nowhere near an overall majority.
    On such an arrangement, the Liberal Democrats would be likely to quickly lose the soft Conservative votes they'd just won over in the South.

    An exact inversion of what happened to them during the coalition years.
    If the LibDems are pushing Labour toward killing off Brexit, those Tory remainers wont be unhappy.
    They will be unhappy with the economic and tax policies such a Government might pursue as well as the pet hobby horses of the Left.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

    The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

    The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.

    11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
    Us 12 hour shift workers say hello.
    I had a 15 hour day on Weds, it was fecking stupid. Long hours are stupid.
    What do you do?
    Exotic dance.

    In truth boringly, digital product management.
    I hope you do an exotic dance to celebrate each successful product launch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Foxy said:

    <

    Even C and S would require new leadership of either party, no way would LDs support Jezza or Bozza.

    Not worth speculating on until we know the exact numbers. In 2010 the numbers fell to make only one option viable. Perhaps C and S rather than formal coalition would have been better, but many aspects of the Coalition were a golden period of good government, particularly compared to the omnishambles that followed.

    I think voters will want a hint. It seems likely that there will be no overall majority, and quite likely that the only people in a position to form a government are Jezza and Bozza, but only with at least C and S from the LibDems. Possible LibDem positions before the election:

    1. In that situation we will offer C and S to Bozza, if we get concessions.
    2. In that situation we will offer C and S to Jezza, if we get concessions.
    3. We will refuse both and force yet another election.
    4. We might do 1 or 2, we'll have to see after the election.
    5. We're not telling you, so there.

    4 seems logical, but reduces tactical support from people who really dislike Bozza and/or Jezza. 3 sounds wearisome. 1 or 2 will thoroughly alienate half the potential tactical vote while inspiring the other half. 5 will annoy everyone.

    I suspect they'll go for 4, as the course of least resistance, with a cover of "Actually we hope for an overall majority ourselves".
    The remarkable thing just might be that shooting for first place might not sound quite so ludicrous as before.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Today's REALLY big story from The Times:

    Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
    Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers

    Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

    This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.

    This is just the latest installment of anti-Corbyn propaganda from The Times.

    They fear him.
    Nope - they don't like the Tories and know that Labour under a slightly less left wing leader would be 20+ points ahead.
    Even if Starmer were Labour leader backing EUref2 Labour would only be 1% ahead of a Boris led Tory Party with Yougov yesterday
    If there is a lesson from the lead it is that we can't take too much from the polls. That 17% rating for the Tories is wipeout territory, whereas that first place on 26% could mean largest party. And both in the same month.
    The IPSOS Mori 26/24 result is amusing as it would mean next to zero net swing between Con and Lab since 2017: both about 17 points down.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Off-topic:

    For all our problems with Crossrail and the delivery of large infrastructure projects, it's good to see that Germany are leading the way in such things:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

    Berlin Brandenburg is still not open, seven years late. Although the cause of the problems are very different to those of Crossrail.

    That is quite the most amazing clusterf*** of a project. It would have been much faster and cheaper to have just bulldozed the whole building and started again with a new one.
This discussion has been closed.