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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Melissa Benn - following in her mother's footsteps...with the astute political antenna as her dear old father Tony.

    All apolitical - not.
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    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi.

    Paying for a tutor so your kid can pass an eleven plus isn't exactly moving heaven and earth, it just tells you how easily gamed the eleven plus is.

    I appreciate that measuring the ability to pay a coach is what it measures but don't pretend it has much to do with "moving heaven and earth" £5k will buy a middle class kid a place over a poor kid of the same academic level, you may as well allow bribes for entrance really.

    Two kids of the same ability, first one to come up with £5k in cash gets in, thats the system we have now in grammar school areas.

    Nonsense, tim. Coaching is one thing, a much more important one is moving house:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/9101751/Making-the-grade-the-hustle-for-grammar-school-places.html
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    What I don't get about people who want grammar schools back is, why select at 11? A lot of countries select around 14, but why would you do it at 11? I mean apart from 1950s nostalgia.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Most people think bedroom tax is 'fair' (Via BBG quoting the telly)

    ''Esther McVey, the employment minister, welcomes poll which finds most people think so-called 'bedroom tax' is fair. Most of the public believe that removing the spare room subsidy is "fair" if people have more bedrooms than they need, a poll has found. A poll by Ipsos Mori found that 54 per cent of people agreed that people of working age living in homes with spare rooms should receive less housing benefit. Just over a quarter of people opposed the move.''
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061


    On a like for like basis private schools fail their pupils:

    "OECD discovered in December 2010 that once socio-economic background was accounted for UK public schools outscored privately-managed ones by 20 score points"

    Where does that quote come from?

    Ah yes:

    http://www.localschoolsnetwork.org.uk/about-us/

    A website set up by Fiona Miller and other politically-motivated campaigners. You'll need to do better than that.

    Odd, isn't it, that if UK state schools are so wonderful, that middle-class parents either move heaven and earth to get their kids into grammar schools or certain academies,or pay humoungous fees for private education. And even odder that we're near bottom of the OECD tables.
    No, I got it from page 13 (paragraph 53) of the PISA report on the UK:

    On average across OECD countries, privately managed schools display a performance advantage of 30 score points on the PISA reading scale (in the United Kingdom even of 62 score points). However, once the socio-economic background of students and schools is accounted for, public schools come out with a slight advantage of 7 score points, on average across OECD countries (in the United Kingdom public schools outscore privately managed schools by 20 score points once the socio-economic background is accounted for).

    http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisa2009/46624007.pdf
    Those are interesting results. Does anyone know how they factor in the socio-economic background?

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    tim said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    tim said:

    Speaking of private schools leading to arrogance I see the polling is showing Camerons women problem never went away.

    What is it about the arrogant misogynist fat red fake from Eton which seems to turn of women voters?
    I think it may have something to do with Sure Start.

    Can we have some context please? Is there polling to show whether it's Cameron personally, or the tories generally, or the right generally that turns women off? Are any potential Cameron replacements fancied better than Cameron by women?


    Last months Mori which put Tory and Labour on 35% each showed Miliband with a 10 point lead over Cameron among women, so there appears to be a particular Dave factor, as there always has been.


    But then the flipside of that would be that Miliband has a 'male' problem.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    All three of my lads will be eligible to vote in the Indy Ref, two are solidly in the No camp with one thinking of voting Yes. But I am getting exactly the same feed back as you are amongst their friends at Uni/school, with the vote split roughly 80/20 in favour of No. And its worth noting that this is the generation who have grown up with Devolution as part of the political landscape.
    Schards said:

    tim said:

    @Stuart
    @TUD

    Has anyone got any polling on how people who have moved to Scotland vote?

    Not that I recall.
    Re. Independence, lots of anecdata about English folk settling in Scotland and voting for Yes, therefore not evidence :)
    I guess there may be a shy Unionism factor.

    A poll of my two english children (21 and 17) living in Scotland returned:

    No - 100%

    Yes - 0%

    FWIW, amongst their friends at Uni/school, they reckon it splits roughly 80/20 in favour of No but their friends may not necessarily be representitive.
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    taffys said:

    Most people think bedroom tax is 'fair' (Via BBG quoting the telly)

    ''Esther McVey, the employment minister, welcomes poll which finds most people think so-called 'bedroom tax' is fair. Most of the public believe that removing the spare room subsidy is "fair" if people have more bedrooms than they need, a poll has found. A poll by Ipsos Mori found that 54 per cent of people agreed that people of working age living in homes with spare rooms should receive less housing benefit. Just over a quarter of people opposed the move.''

    Telegraph article:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10435930/Most-people-think-bedroom-tax-is-fair-poll-finds.html

    If Labour can't win this one after the political capital they have expended on it."....
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    tim said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    tim said:

    Speaking of private schools leading to arrogance I see the polling is showing Camerons women problem never went away.

    What is it about the arrogant misogynist fat red fake from Eton which seems to turn of women voters?
    I think it may have something to do with Sure Start.

    Can we have some context please? Is there polling to show whether it's Cameron personally, or the tories generally, or the right generally that turns women off? Are any potential Cameron replacements fancied better than Cameron by women?


    Last months Mori which put Tory and Labour on 35% each showed Miliband with a 10 point lead over Cameron among women, so there appears to be a particular Dave factor, as there always has been.


    But then the flipside of that would be that Miliband has a 'male' problem.
    Well exactly , men have the same vote as women. Maybe Tim can explain why Miliband has a man problem?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Plenty of Labour people struggle with that one.

    Including a certain Ed Balls.
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013


    No, I got it from page 13 (paragraph 53) of the PISA report on the UK:

    On average across OECD countries, privately managed schools display a performance advantage of 30 score points on the PISA reading scale (in the United Kingdom even of 62 score points). However, once the socio-economic background of students and schools is accounted for, public schools come out with a slight advantage of 7 score points, on average across OECD countries (in the United Kingdom public schools outscore privately managed schools by 20 score points once the socio-economic background is accounted for).

    http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisa2009/46624007.pdf


    Apologies, fair enough.

    Well, to be blunt, I don't believe it. It's hard to see how it could be true AND that we are near-bottom of the OECD pile AND that we have high levels of inequality between schools. It would imply that the well-off are actively disadvantaging themselves, leaving the field freer for those (proportionately) better-educated state-school children to zoom past them into the best jobs, universities, and numeracy/literacy results. That doesn't really add up, does it?

    I wonder if they meant 'after accounting for student background characteristics, school autonomy and school competition for students', which is what the other summary said?
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    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi.

    Paying for a tutor so your kid can pass an eleven plus isn't exactly moving heaven and earth, it just tells you how easily gamed the eleven plus is.

    I appreciate that measuring the ability to pay a coach is what it measures but don't pretend it has much to do with "moving heaven and earth" £5k will buy a middle class kid a place over a poor kid of the same academic level, you may as well allow bribes for entrance really.

    Two kids of the same ability, first one to come up with £5k in cash gets in, thats the system we have now in grammar school areas.

    Except of course it is no where near £5K. Generally an 11+ tutor will charge between £10 and £15 a session and will operate during term time only unless extra tuition is needed in the last summer break before the exam. They will not usually take kids until 2 years before the exam.

    So between £400 and £600 a year for two years.

    Now admittedly that might drive out the very poor (and as has been pointed out in some areas at least there are schemes to help them) but I wonder how many working class people would baulk at paying £800 over two years for the tutoring but would still want to go on holiday - almost certainly spending more than that into the bargain.

    To tie it in with the discussion the other day, the cost of tutoring is less than the cost of basic Sky subscription.

    It all comes down to priorities.

    Unfortunately in Tim's world those who put their kids education before their own entertainment are to be considered bad parents who are a burden on society.
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    tim said:

    @RichardNabavi.

    Paying for a tutor so your kid can pass an eleven plus isn't exactly moving heaven and earth, it just tells you how easily gamed the eleven plus is.

    I appreciate that measuring the ability to pay a coach is what it measures but don't pretend it has much to do with "moving heaven and earth" £5k will buy a middle class kid a place over a poor kid of the same academic level, you may as well allow bribes for entrance really.

    Two kids of the same ability, first one to come up with £5k in cash gets in, thats the system we have now in grammar school areas.

    Except of course it is no where near £5K. Generally an 11+ tutor will charge between £10 and £15 a session and will operate during term time only unless extra tuition is needed in the last summer break before the exam. They will not usually take kids until 2 years before the exam.

    So between £400 and £600 a year for two years.

    Now admittedly that might drive out the very poor (and as has been pointed out in some areas at least there are schemes to help them) but I wonder how many working class people would baulk at paying £800 over two years for the tutoring but would still want to go on holiday - almost certainly spending more than that into the bargain.

    To tie it in with the discussion the other day, the cost of tutoring is less than the cost of basic Sky subscription.

    It all comes down to priorities.

    Unfortunately in Tim's world those who put their kids education before their own entertainment are to be considered bad parents who are a burden on society.
    My daughter (who was 7 at the time) was walking with us and we past a stall advertising maths tuition. We did not take up the offer but the reaction of my daughter was incredulous 'why would you pay somebody to give you extra maths lessons'!!!


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    What I don't get about people who want grammar schools back is, why select at 11? A lot of countries select around 14, but why would you do it at 11? I mean apart from 1950s nostalgia.

    Because our whole schools system has been simplified to remove middle schools.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited November 2013
    O/T

    I've just been watching the BBC News and I was shocked by the Queen's seemingly sudden and considerable lack of mobility, when she appeared to have very real difficulty in walking.
    It then occurred to me just how well in fact she has managed to reach the age of 87 without requiring any aids, when most of us have need of a stick at least at a considerably younger age.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited November 2013
    I am finding it amusing that Nigel Farage was politically out gunned and totally neutered by a tough as nails Conservative female MP on Question Time last night. And Anna Soubry was certainly channelling her inner Mrs Thatcher, and that makes it all the more interesting to note that the UKIPpers on here find it a reason to attack her as a result. Something tells me we are getting a classic wee glimpse of just what Mrs Thatcher was up against in the Conservative party when she first came to prominence within her party, and often from those who then went onto eulogise about her right wing credentials for decades afterwards.
    Sean_F said:

    Bobajob said:

    Anna Soubry is a very left wing Tory - she must be among the most left wing in the party. A formidable opponent for Nick in an urban seat.

    Nick's probably the more right-wing candidate of the two.
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    O/T

    I've just been watching the BBC News and I was shocked by the Queen's seemingly sudden and considerable lack of mobility, when she appeared to have very real difficulty in walking.
    It then occurred to me just how well in fact she has managed to reach the age of 87 without requiring any aids, when most of us have need of a stick at least at a considerably younger age.

    perhaps because she has aides not aids ?
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    fitalass said:

    I am finding it amusing that Nigel Farage was politically out gunned and totaly neutered by a tough as nails Conservative female MP on Question Time last night. And Anna Soubry was certainly channelling her inner Mrs Thatcher, and that makes it all the more interesting to note that the UKIPpers on here find it all the more reason to attack her as a result. Something tells me we are getting a wee glimpse of just what Mrs Thatcher was up against in the Conservative party when she first came to prominence within her party, and often from those who then went onto eulogise about her right wing credentials for decades afterwards.

    LOL. In your dreams Fitlass.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    Articulate and piercing attack on the SNP's currency "policy".

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/618f171c-4714-11e3-bdd2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2k2tr7M9Q

    There is no way Scotland will be allowed a say in the running of the Bank of England, if they choose independence + sterling. They will just have to accept interest rates designed for rUK, not for Scotland.

    Thate reminds me a bit of the Euro Zone with policy set for germany.

    How did that work out again?
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    If Scotland did go independent then I can imagine a good trade off would be a seat on the Bank of England monetary committee against keeping nuclear subs in Scottish waters. Salmond will then have to decide which is more important to him.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @floater

    Read my posts before you add moronic comments.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Josias - yes Nottingham is the regional capital and the biggest and best city in the East Mids but Derbyshire as a county is the jewel in the East Midlands crown, even though it's hard to conceive that its dramatic northern section is in the 'midlands' at all!
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The poll was commissioned by the government, according to the article.

    taffys said:

    Most people think bedroom tax is 'fair' (Via BBG quoting the telly)

    ''Esther McVey, the employment minister, welcomes poll which finds most people think so-called 'bedroom tax' is fair. Most of the public believe that removing the spare room subsidy is "fair" if people have more bedrooms than they need, a poll has found. A poll by Ipsos Mori found that 54 per cent of people agreed that people of working age living in homes with spare rooms should receive less housing benefit. Just over a quarter of people opposed the move.''

    Telegraph article:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10435930/Most-people-think-bedroom-tax-is-fair-poll-finds.html

    If Labour can't win this one after the political capital they have expended on it."....
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052

    What I don't get about people who want grammar schools back is, why select at 11? A lot of countries select around 14, but why would you do it at 11? I mean apart from 1950s nostalgia.

    Don't underestimate the importance of 1950s nostalgia to conservatives.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,364
    As I have mentioned before on here in 2012 my kids' private school sat more highers in science than the 9 state schools in Dundee put together and got a higher percentage of "A" grades than the state schools got passes.

    I do not say this to be smug. I think it is a local and national disgrace. Dundee City Council spending per pupil is pretty equivalent and their results are just shocking. In fairness, they will have the very considerable costs of making provision for children with special needs and the schools support a significant bureacracy but I cannot believe that any amount of social adjustments is going to make them value for money.

    When I attended a state school in Dundee 35 years ago it was not like that. My state school used to compete with the High in how many kids went to University in "hard" subjects like medicine and in Oxbridge entrants. It is shocking how the gap in performance has grown. The implications for social mobility in this country as well as economic performance are serious.

    The test for all educationalists is to explain this desperate failure and explain how their ideas are going to get the kids in this country back into the top 20 of 24.
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    NEW THREAD
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Floater said:

    SeanT said:

    Articulate and piercing attack on the SNP's currency "policy".

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/618f171c-4714-11e3-bdd2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2k2tr7M9Q

    There is no way Scotland will be allowed a say in the running of the Bank of England, if they choose independence + sterling. They will just have to accept interest rates designed for rUK, not for Scotland.

    Thate reminds me a bit of the Euro Zone with policy set for germany.

    How did that work out again?
    Considering Scotland owns 10% of it I think Sean is howling at the moon again.
This discussion has been closed.