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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 could be decided by whether enough people have felt the benefit of this ‘economic recovery’

These last few months have witnessed David Cameron and Ed Miliband place a sizeable political wager against each other, with the keys to Downing Street at stake. The Conservative leader believes the economy will show positive signs of recovery by 2015 and enough indication that the government has made good on its promise to repair the economy.

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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited November 2013
    Primo

    Get up you lazy sods, off to work and pay for my pension ....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited November 2013
    Hmm for example Labour supported the 1% public sector pay cap and yet have now moved on to real living standards are falling....

    Go figure.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    If the election were held tomorrow Labour would likely win, but with leads of 5-6% one can hardly be sure.

    But it's going to take place in May 2015. A long, long, long time in politics.

    It really is as simple as that. Poor tim.
  • One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf
  • JohnO said:

    If the election were held tomorrow Labour would likely win, but with leads of 5-6% one can hardly be sure.

    But it's going to take place in May 2015. A long, long, long time in politics.

    It really is as simple as that. Poor tim.

    What can someone do for the whole 18 months min. still left to enjoy with labour sitting safely out of power... pb that's what!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Any more praise for Hollande's economic model?

    S&P cuts France's credit rating from AA+ to AA. Citing weak growth high unemployment and slow reform. Retweeted by Paul Waugh.

    All is not well in the EU, sluggish there demand won't help the UK, more effort to export elsewhere could help.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited November 2013
    Overnight Elections PB Premiership :

    Mark Senior 4 : 4 Andrea

    Aberystwth..........Durham
    Harborough.........Bootle
    Nottingham..........Corby
    West-Oxon..........Spelthorn
  • They're both right. The economy is improving nicely and living standards are falling. On this basis I expect Miliband to become PM.

    We haven't really made any significant inroads into the legacy of 13 years of incontinent spending though, and there just is no panacea. We already spent the future and now we must pay for it. A painful, slow, disciplined slog back to sanity is required. The public sector needs profound reform. Spending discipline and public reform - from Labour? Yeah right! Ain't gonna happen.

    I think Miliband is set to become a figure like Hollande - the most unpopular PM for a long, long time. And we'll be the ones who pay for it. Literally.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    "GDP figures simply won’t win votes on their own. "

    That is a correct and important observation Henry but it does have its limitations. The news for much of the Parliament has been downbeat with the double dip/triple dip story lines and the undoubted flatlining over an extended period. The news over the next 18 months will be better although you are also right to point out there will be black spots such as very modest increases in the standard of living and higher energy prices.

    So will people feel better when they are told about record employment, that their wages are rising in real terms again, albeit by amounts most of us will find hard to spot, when their house is no longer falling in value in real terms, when the news is reporting that we have the highest growth in the EU? I think it is really hard to call and the tories would be very unwise to take it for granted.

    The tories dream of 1992 when the public were unwilling to trust Mr Kinnock. It's a possible scenario, especially if Ed continues in his current mode where short term gains come at a price. But for me the centre point of this country is further to the left (at least as measured against the political parties) than it was then. The tories have a lot to do but it is not over yet.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    France downgraded by S+P again to the third tier.

    Meanwhile Britain is booming.

    Vote Labour get France.

  • Cash continues to pile on No for the IndyRef. Bet365 become the latest bookie to shorten their No price (now 1/8), following in the footsteps of Paddy Power earlier this week. However, Betfair still have the best prices for both Yes and No backers, and with decent liquidity.

    With so many Don’t Knows it is astonishing the price that you can get on Yes at the moment:

    Betfair – Scotland Independence Referendum 2014 – Winner

    Yes 6
    No 1.19

    (Matched bets = GBP 36,536)

    It will not last.
  • TGOHF said:

    France downgraded by S+P again to the third tier.

    Meanwhile Britain is booming.

    Vote Labour get France.

    Even Ed's number one fan, the Independent is losing faith:

    "'The core of the problem is Hollande’s own personality': France's President clings to the last of his credibility"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-core-of-the-problem-is-hollandes-own-personality-frances-president-clings-to-the-last-of-his-credibility-8927672.html
  • The Labour lead has halved in just over six months on the back of what?

    It has halved even though the public are supposed to have missed any value from the growth thus far.

    There are plenty of green lights going off in the claimant count, in the available vacancies numbers, in the PMI surveys that now talk of wage pressures, backlogs of work building up, the Eurozone finally pulling itself round....

    Balls might yet get to trot out his "too far, too fast" line - but it will be about growth rather than cuts.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    The Labour lead has halved in just over six months on the back of what?

    It has halved even though the public are supposed to have missed any value from the growth thus far.

    There are plenty of green lights going off in the claimant count, in the available vacancies numbers, in the PMI surveys that now talk of wage pressures, backlogs of work building up, the Eurozone finally pulling itself round....

    Balls might yet get to trot out his "too far, too fast" line - but it will be about growth rather than cuts.


    It was going well until you mentioned the eurozone: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10434431/ECBs-Draghi-stuns-markets-with-rate-cut-but-deflation-still-looms.html

    That remains a real risk. Like the UK they have still got major structural problems. Unlike the UK they have done remarkably little to address them. The money supply figures for the EZ, again unlike the UK remain very, very poor and a sovereign debt crisis in one or more countries there is almost evens for 2014.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    As I've said, I don't think the election will be decided by the economy, important though it is, because people aren't convinced that any of the parties will make them much better off. In particular it won't be decided by debate on who did what a decade earlier - the Tories are welcome to major on that if they want. Nor will it be based on who's the biggest deficit-killer - the Government has stopped talking about that and is cheerfully spending on this and that. Conversely Labour won't win by talking about the cuts or past wins like the Minimum Wage. People shrug off the past, good and bad.

    At present, it will simply be won by the settled intent of left-wing 2010 LibDems and Gordon Brown voters to get the government out. Neither group is going to switch because growth goes up to 1.5%, or Falkirk, or whether they think Cameron looks statesmanlike or Miliband looks geeky. To win, the Conservatives need to get 40%+ largely from elsewhere, in the biggest two-party squeeze for 20 years. It's possible, but looks difficult.



  • On topic, if the economy keeps improving like it has been the voters will feel it and it'll help the government. Caveats being:
    - It's not clear there are a lot of floating voters out there who will shift as a result.
    - The government's messaging hasn't left them ideally placed to benefit. They started out with exactly the right grimly determined vibe but then got blown all over the place and did a lot of general right-wingery that makes it hard to expand their support to people objectively impressed with their record, in the event that they end up with a record to impress people with.
    - The economy may not hold up that well. It tends to follow the US, which has started to splutter a bit again lately.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    DavidL said:

    The Labour lead has halved in just over six months on the back of what?

    It has halved even though the public are supposed to have missed any value from the growth thus far.

    There are plenty of green lights going off in the claimant count, in the available vacancies numbers, in the PMI surveys that now talk of wage pressures, backlogs of work building up, the Eurozone finally pulling itself round....

    Balls might yet get to trot out his "too far, too fast" line - but it will be about growth rather than cuts.


    It was going well until you mentioned the eurozone: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10434431/ECBs-Draghi-stuns-markets-with-rate-cut-but-deflation-still-looms.html

    That remains a real risk. Like the UK they have still got major structural problems. Unlike the UK they have done remarkably little to address them. The money supply figures for the EZ, again unlike the UK remain very, very poor and a sovereign debt crisis in one or more countries there is almost evens for 2014.
    As an observation David we still have a long way to go before our govt. or indeed any of the political parties start to address the UK's structural issues :

    1. BoP deficit which is forecast to get worse since we don't make enough of what we consume
    2. Chronic underinvestment in national infrastructure
    3. A low skilled workforce with poor education
    4. A banking oligopoly
    5. Large economic imbalances between the regions

    Quite frankly if our politicos couldn't attack this list on the back of our worst economic crisis then we can only be pessimistic that they'll ever get round to it and we will continuosly lurch from boom to bust on the back of a flawed property market.
  • @NickPalmer It simply isn't true to say that the Government has stopped talking about deficit reduction. Read George Osborne's and David Cameron's conference speeches only a month ago. They both talked about this at length.

    I know that you would like them to stop talking about this, but the wish is the father to the thought.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    As I've said, I don't think the election will be decided by the economy, important though it is, because people aren't convinced that any of the parties will make them much better off. In particular it won't be decided by debate on who did what a decade earlier - the Tories are welcome to major on that if they want. Nor will it be based on who's the biggest deficit-killer - the Government has stopped talking about that and is cheerfully spending on this and that. Conversely Labour won't win by talking about the cuts or past wins like the Minimum Wage. People shrug off the past, good and bad.

    At present, it will simply be won by the settled intent of left-wing 2010 LibDems and Gordon Brown voters to get the government out. Neither group is going to switch because growth goes up to 1.5%, or Falkirk, or whether they think Cameron looks statesmanlike or Miliband looks geeky. To win, the Conservatives need to get 40%+ largely from elsewhere, in the biggest two-party squeeze for 20 years. It's possible, but looks difficult.



    Nick, you may be right about the politics of it but the deficit remains a huge problem. We still have the largest deficit in the G7 in terms of GDP. By the election the tories will have got the deficit down to almost half, something like £80bn. That is a huge and totally unsustainable sum of money meaning many more years of austerity.

    I still think the election will be won by the party people trust to manage that austerity. An attitude like yours seems way too relaxed to me. Labour ducked all the hard choices in the last election campaign. Are they really hoping to do so again?
  • We've still got a deficit?

    Don't tell Labour, the other 2 parties said they would have sorted that out and tidied it up for them by 2015.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Keith Vaz tweeting he will support tge Wharton bill.

    We know Ed doesn't like democracy - is he busy hiding somewhere today ?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years and if living standards are still going backwards it's unlikely the electorate will blame Labour for it...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    Early doors tim - remember you clearly stated this was a non story 5 months ago...
  • Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years and if living standards are still going backwards it's unlikely the electorate will blame Labour for it...
    You are obviously far too young to remember either 1992 or 2005 when the incumbent parties successfully used exactly this approach several elections on.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TGOHF said:

    Keith Vaz tweeting he will support tge Wharton bill.

    We know Ed doesn't like democracy - is he busy hiding somewhere today ?

    That should reduce Tory support for it.

  • @tim - London Labour share the rest of England's view of Falkirk - not a view shared in Scotland, if they'd read beyond the top lines they'd know, and as I pointed out yesterday:

    Net should reopen Falkirk inquiry:
    OA: +25
    Scot: +41

    London Labour - are they trying to lose the Union?
  • tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    So, if the polls suggest it is OK to be have like that, then it is OK is it?

    What do you expect the baby eaters to learn? That the way to get into power is to use 'leverage'?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    As I've said, I don't think the election will be decided by the economy, important though it is, because people aren't convinced that any of the parties will make them much better off. In particular it won't be decided by debate on who did what a decade earlier - the Tories are welcome to major on that if they want. Nor will it be based on who's the biggest deficit-killer - the Government has stopped talking about that and is cheerfully spending on this and that. Conversely Labour won't win by talking about the cuts or past wins like the Minimum Wage. People shrug off the past, good and bad.

    At present, it will simply be won by the settled intent of left-wing 2010 LibDems and Gordon Brown voters to get the government out. Neither group is going to switch because growth goes up to 1.5%, or Falkirk, or whether they think Cameron looks statesmanlike or Miliband looks geeky. To win, the Conservatives need to get 40%+ largely from elsewhere, in the biggest two-party squeeze for 20 years. It's possible, but looks difficult.



    You are absolutely right about the deficit stuff Nick. I said this a few weeks ago to Antifrank who then declared to the thread I was "dead wrong". I wonder whether he still holds that view? The government conceded that ground by spending on stuff - probably wisely as they have come to the view that, rightly or wrongly, people don't care. That's even if they grasp it - my experience is that most people don't and confuse deficit with the national debt which, by 2015, will be around double that in 2010. Not ripe territory for the govt.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Ajob, Labour were still blaming the Conservatives for just about everything despite three consecutive terms of office. Given the scale of the recession, the debt and the deficit it's entirely legitimate to point out that the two chief minions of Brown now occupy the seats of Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Chancellor.

    F1: Hmm. Still no word on the driver market. It'd be interesting if Magnussen got the gig at McLaren. He's 21, a little older than the Russians Kvyat and Sirotkin, who are both 19.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    The greatest effect will be Scotland.

    Fact: it nearly cost 10% of GDP. You think the other parties will let that go?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    TGOHF said:

    France downgraded by S+P again to the third tier.

    Meanwhile Britain is booming.

    Vote Labour get France.

    That's your PPB. But what's your forecast? You don't say. Do you expect a Tory win in 2015? If not, what?
  • PB Tories (does that include me?) should stop worrying. Dave is going to lose in 2015 and Redward will be PM.

    The real worry 'and then what?'. The UK is on a (not nearly fast enough) path towards fiscal / financial sanity. When Labour get back in that will die. The market will respond.

    It's also a near certainty IMHO that there will be a MAJOR financial crisis worldwide in the next few years as market valuations and the economic / corporate fundamentals are badly out of whack and sovereign debt loads are unsustainable. (2008 was a mere warm-up act). It's more likely this will really hit after 2015 than before - catching Ed between the teeth.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bobajob said:

    TGOHF said:

    France downgraded by S+P again to the third tier.

    Meanwhile Britain is booming.

    Vote Labour get France.

    That's your PPB. But what's your forecast? You don't say. Do you expect a Tory win in 2015? If not, what?
    Minimal change at the GE barring events. Lab up Lib down.
  • @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.
  • And here is what David Cameron said in his conference speech last month:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text

    "These past few years have been a real struggle.

    But what people want to know now is: was the struggle worth it?

    And here's the honest answer.

    The struggle will only be worth it if we as a country finish the job we've started.

    Finishing the job means understanding this.

    Our economy may be turning the corner - and of course that's great.

    But we still haven't finished paying for Labour's Debt Crisis.

    If anyone thinks that's over, done, dealt with - they're living in a fantasy land.

    This country's debt crisis, created by Labour, is not over.

    After three years of cuts, we still have one of the biggest deficits in the world.

    We are still spending more than we earn.

    We still need to earn more and yes, our Government still needs to spend less.

    I see that Labour have stopped talking about the debt crisis and now they talk about the cost of living crisis.

    As if one wasn't directly related to the other.

    If you want to know what happens if you don't deal with a debt crisis..

    ...and how it affects the cost of living...

    ...just go and ask the Greeks.

    So finishing the job means sticking to our course until we've paid off all of Labour's deficit, not just some of it.

    And yes - let's run a surplus so that this time we fix the roof when the sun is shining...

    ...as George said in that brilliant speech on Monday.

    To abandon deficit reduction now would throw away all the progress we've made.

    It would put us back to square one.

    Unbelievably, that's exactly what Labour now want to do.

    How did they get us into this mess?

    Too much spending, too much borrowing, too much debt.

    And what did they propose last week?

    More spending, more borrowing, more debt.

    They have learned nothing - literally nothing - from the crisis they created."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    DavidL said:

    "GDP figures simply won’t win votes on their own. "

    That is a correct and important observation Henry but it does have its limitations. The news for much of the Parliament has been downbeat with the double dip/triple dip story lines and the undoubted flatlining over an extended period. The news over the next 18 months will be better although you are also right to point out there will be black spots such as very modest increases in the standard of living and higher energy prices.

    So will people feel better when they are told about record employment, that their wages are rising in real terms again, albeit by amounts most of us will find hard to spot, when their house is no longer falling in value in real terms, when the news is reporting that we have the highest growth in the EU? I think it is really hard to call and the tories would be very unwise to take it for granted.

    The tories dream of 1992 when the public were unwilling to trust Mr Kinnock. It's a possible scenario, especially if Ed continues in his current mode where short term gains come at a price. But for me the centre point of this country is further to the left (at least as measured against the political parties) than it was then. The tories have a lot to do but it is not over yet.

    GDP is more than a number. If the economy grows by 4-5% or so between now and the next election, that'll show up somewhere; either in terms of falling unemployment, or rising wages, or extra revenues for the government, providing scope for reductions in taxation.

    IMHO, the best thing the government could do politically is to cut Employees' national insurance contribution, providing a measurable boost to people on low to medium incomes. Voters like prizes.

    Overall, the economic recovery to date has had an impact on the government's standing. Approval of the government's handling of the economy has moved from the high twenties to the high thirties; net disapproval of the government has moved from the high thirties to the high twenties.
  • Bobajob said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    As I've said, I don't think the election will be decided by the economy, important though it is, because people aren't convinced that any of the parties will make them much better off. In particular it won't be decided by debate on who did what a decade earlier - the Tories are welcome to major on that if they want. Nor will it be based on who's the biggest deficit-killer - the Government has stopped talking about that and is cheerfully spending on this and that. Conversely Labour won't win by talking about the cuts or past wins like the Minimum Wage. People shrug off the past, good and bad.

    At present, it will simply be won by the settled intent of left-wing 2010 LibDems and Gordon Brown voters to get the government out. Neither group is going to switch because growth goes up to 1.5%, or Falkirk, or whether they think Cameron looks statesmanlike or Miliband looks geeky. To win, the Conservatives need to get 40%+ largely from elsewhere, in the biggest two-party squeeze for 20 years. It's possible, but looks difficult.



    You are absolutely right about the deficit stuff Nick.
    No, you're both absolutely wrong.

    For reasons we all understand, Labour might wish people would stop talking about the deficit.

    But it hasn't gone away, and the government hasn't stopped talking about it:

    ""An improving economic situation in the UK does not automatically lead to a windfall for the public finances because we shouldn't assume that a structural deficit is solved by an improvement in GDP," Osborne said.

    "It's called a structural deficit for a reason," he said."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/uk-britain-economy-osborne-deficit-idUKBRE99L0GE20131022
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    philiph said:

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    The greatest effect will be Scotland.

    Feel free to frame a bet on how many seats Labour will lose in Scotland.

    The way they are going. About 50 in September 2014

    I can get decent odds on that elsewhere, thanks.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    philiph said:

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    The greatest effect will be Scotland.

    Feel free to frame a bet on how many seats Labour will lose in Scotland.

    tim if you are quoting the polling on Falkirk you must now think the story has run it's course ?

    Has it ?

    Is the non story now really a gone story - is Falkirk "over" ?

    Please let us know oh wise sage...

  • @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.
  • philiph said:

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 11h
    The polls suggest the public aren’t as scandalised by Falkirk as the Tories might hope, writes @smashmore_PH: http://polho.me/17PVf1d


    Never, ever learn.

    The greatest effect will be Scotland.

    Fact: it nearly cost 10% of GDP. You think the other parties will let that go?
    tim ignores polling from Scotland...

  • @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    Are you saying help to buy is the major reason the economy is growing?
  • I agree with Henry that Osborne can't afford a 'steady as she goes' autumn statement.

    Ed is right to go with the 'cost of living' issues, although his policies are wrong, but it still matters to the 'man on the street'.

    It won't be enough to just react to labour though, on say energy bills, we need something more proactive. The tory in me says tax cuts, so people have more in the pay-packet, but theres other things as well.
  • TGOHF said:

    Bobajob said:

    TGOHF said:

    France downgraded by S+P again to the third tier.

    Meanwhile Britain is booming.

    Vote Labour get France.

    That's your PPB. But what's your forecast? You don't say. Do you expect a Tory win in 2015? If not, what?
    Minimal change at the GE barring events. Lab up Lib down.
    Sounds plausible. Lab up a bit, Lib down a bit, nothing really changes except the senior coalition party and the Prime Minister.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    How exactly is HTB "spending money"? AIUI, it's currently income for the government, not spending.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Henry, thank you for your scenarios, but I feel that you are too willing to accept political statements without probing their veracity.

    You say, "Somewhat surprisingly the Conservatives still don’t have a policy on energy that stands up to Labour’s."

    In fact Labour does not have an energy policy in the same way that it did not have one from 1997-2010. EdM has proposed a short term fix without explaining how he would impose a price freeze. I doubt if he wants to be remembered for another 3-day week energy crisis, but he is dependent on the energy companies supplying the energy. If it is not economic to do so, then the energy companies are not obliged to supply that energy. LNG will not be imported if a loss is to be made. France does not have to sell us electricity if the price is not right.

    Also you make the mistake of conflating the Conservatives with the Coalition. It is highly probable that in the autumn statement most of the Green energy taxes will be removed from the energy bills whether over Clegg's dead body or not. - Is EdM in favour of that or not?

    You said, "Many bills are expected to continue to rise ahead of inflation." Did you mean wages and not inflation? Or do you mean energy bills rising more than average inflation?

    Either way, UK people have paid themselves too much for years and the good times have got to stop. We have to live more efficiently and less wastefully at public and personal levels. There is no need for council tax to rise next April as more cost reduction and efficiency can be found easily across the public sector. Having built up a management empire in the public sector, this has to be pared to the bare minimum. Tax and child credits have to be reduced to cut the load on the Treasury as does qualification for those benefits. If this is not done then the UK may be reduced to being a dying museum.
  • @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    Are you saying help to buy is the major reason the economy is growing?

    No, I am saying it is an example of the government prioritising spending. It's a classic stimulus measure. It's also holding down petrol prices and will even be subsidising them in some places. If deficit reduction were it's number one priority this would not be happening - unless it accepts that, actually, the government spending more does help to bring the deficit down.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years and if living standards are still going backwards it's unlikely the electorate will blame Labour for it...
    Margaret Thatcher - last in power over 20 years ago and now deceased. And not a week goes by when someone on the left will blame her for something.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'll be amazed if the fingerprints of Mr Crosby aren't all over the Autumn Statement - some juicy eye-catchers are surely a given?

    I'd like to see reductions in NI.

    I agree with Henry that Osborne can't afford a 'steady as she goes' autumn statement.

    Ed is right to go with the 'cost of living' issues, although his policies are wrong, but it still matters to the 'man on the street'.

    It won't be enough to just react to labour though, on say energy bills, we need something more proactive. The tory in me says tax cuts, so people have more in the pay-packet, but theres other things as well.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Financier - EdM doesn't say at what level the prices will be frozen either.

    Mine, my neighbours, his? Everyone where they stand on 6th May 2015?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    I'll be amazed if the fingerprints of Mr Crosby aren't all over the Autumn Statement - some juicy eye-catchers are surely a given?

    I'd like to see reductions in NI.

    I agree with Henry that Osborne can't afford a 'steady as she goes' autumn statement.

    Ed is right to go with the 'cost of living' issues, although his policies are wrong, but it still matters to the 'man on the street'.

    It won't be enough to just react to labour though, on say energy bills, we need something more proactive. The tory in me says tax cuts, so people have more in the pay-packet, but theres other things as well.

    @Plato

    Unfortunately NI is now really part of Income Tax and is too easy to collect. However, I could see the "discount" on employer's NI given to SMEs being extended - I have never seen a tax on jobs being a sensible tax - but Labour has always been prepared to ramp it up.
  • @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    I don't disagree with any of that. But the original (incorrect) point was that the Tories had stopped talking about deficit reduction. They haven't, they won't and they'd be crazy to, because it links into their most effective campaign which is based on moral condemnation of what they would characterise as Labour's spineless profligacy.
  • Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years and if living standards are still going backwards it's unlikely the electorate will blame Labour for it...
    Margaret Thatcher - last in power over 20 years ago and now deceased. And not a week goes by when someone on the left will blame her for something.
    Unite.

    Two days ago.

    “The seeds for this situation were sown in the 1980’s when the Thatcher government used European structural funds to close shipyards, rather than funding investment that would have allowed Britain to compete in the global marketplace for shipbuilding orders against the likes of South Korea.”

    http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-to-fight-for-a-future-for-shipbuilding/
  • Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for Con:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years
    The coalition has been in power for three and a half year - and the electorate still blame Labour for "the cuts" - by a margin that's barely shifted in two years, Why should that change in the next 18 months?
  • @SeanF

    IMHO, the best thing the government could do politically is to cut Employees' national insurance contribution, providing a measurable boost to people on low to medium incomes. Voters like prizes.
    That's a great policy. Cutting lower-end national insurance contributions using printed money is a rare combination of "sounds good" and "works well". It also fits in quite nicely with perceptions that the economy isn't really fixed, because it sounds (and is) very plausible as a job creation measure.

    It's also step one of Matt Yglesias's Five Steps To Fix Everything. They could take a look at the other four while they're at it...
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/10/23/how_to_fix_everything.html
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    I agree with Henry that Osborne can't afford a 'steady as she goes' autumn statement.

    Ed is right to go with the 'cost of living' issues, although his policies are wrong, but it still matters to the 'man on the street'.

    It won't be enough to just react to labour though, on say energy bills, we need something more proactive. The tory in me says tax cuts, so people have more in the pay-packet, but theres other things as well.

    Exactly right Slackbladder. Cut taxes and forget about the deficit. It may not be sensible but it could be attractive to the electorate.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    Are you saying help to buy is the major reason the economy is growing?
    **Anecdote alert ** - was talking to someone in building compliance yesterday. Apparently the biggest block to construction projects getting under way is not will, planning or finance it is raw materials such as plasterboard etc.

    Apparently the supply industry took such a tanking in the down turn that it is not in a position to meet demand.

    Sounds like a long term positive to me though in demand terms.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP.
    There's a coherent strategy for you

    Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?

  • Plato said:

    @Financier - EdM doesn't say at what level the prices will be frozen either.

    Mine, my neighbours, his? Everyone where they stand on 6th May 2015?

    Good point. If I wanted to switch tariffs afterwards, will I be allowed to do so?
  • Mr. Ajob, the alternative would've been reducing the deficit to a surplus by about halfway through the Parliament. If Labour wanted that, or consider it a good thing, they have no leg to stand on whatsoever as they bleated about cuts being 'too far and too fast' despite being done at a far slower rate.
  • Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    And here is what David Cameron said in his conference speech last month:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text

    "These past few years have been a real struggle.

    But what people want to know now is: was the struggle worth it?

    And here's the honest answer.

    The struggle will only be worth it if we as a country finish the job we've started.

    Finishing the job means understanding this.

    Our economy may be turning the corner - and of course that's great.

    But we still haven't finished paying for Labour's Debt Crisis.

    If anyone thinks that's over, done, dealt with - they're living in a fantasy land.

    This country's debt crisis, created by Labour, is not over.

    After three years of cuts, we still have one of the biggest deficits in the world.

    We are still spending more than we earn.

    We still need to earn more and yes, our Government still needs to spend less.

    I see that Labour have stopped talking about the debt crisis and now they talk about the cost of living crisis.

    As if one wasn't directly related to the other.

    If you want to know what happens if you don't deal with a debt crisis..

    ...and how it affects the cost of living...

    ...just go and ask the Greeks.

    So finishing the job means sticking to our course until we've paid off all of Labour's deficit, not just some of it.

    And yes - let's run a surplus so that this time we fix the roof when the sun is shining...

    ...as George said in that brilliant speech on Monday.

    To abandon deficit reduction now would throw away all the progress we've made.

    It would put us back to square one.

    Unbelievably, that's exactly what Labour now want to do.

    How did they get us into this mess?

    Too much spending, too much borrowing, too much debt.

    And what did they propose last week?

    More spending, more borrowing, more debt.

    They have learned nothing - literally nothing - from the crisis they created."

    A speech that had the traction of a tiddlewink covered in Teflon, instantly forgotten as Labour won the conference season by focusing on the pound in people's pockets.

  • There seems to be remarkable complacency amongst Labour supporters. There lead at this stage is hardly stratospheric. The economy, whether they choose to admit it or not is improving. And they genuinely seem to think that when it comes to the crunch, when people are in the ballot box, they will not ask themselves, are Ed Milliband and Ed Balls (Ed Balls!), good for my job and good for my future?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    I don't disagree with any of that. But the original (incorrect) point was that the Tories had stopped talking about deficit reduction. They haven't, they won't and they'd be crazy to, because it links into their most effective campaign which is based on moral condemnation of what they would characterise as Labour's spineless profligacy.
    Wrong. You said the deficit will be the *election battleground*. I said it won't be. We shall see who is right.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited November 2013
    On topic: "I really don’t believe the Conservatives can afford to risk a ‘steady as you go’ Autumn Statement."

    On the contrary, 'steady as you go' is exactly what they should and will do, firstly because, when the ship is safely sailing out of treacherous waters, you'd have to be mad to lurch towards the rocks on the port side, and secondly their entire platform for re-election is, as antifrank rightly observes, going to be based on being the serious party of government which eschews dangerous gimmicks and too-good-to-be-true snake oil. Since in any case they can't out-snake Miliband, it would be insane to try.

    That's not to say that they won't make some minor adjustments to taxation of energy; that seems to have been strongly signalled already.
  • And more to the point, a party with a shadow Chancellor who made his mantra "too far, too fast" can't make that argument, which is why tim's 9,468 posts on this subject are politically completely irrelevant.
  • Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    I don't disagree with any of that. But the original (incorrect) point was that the Tories had stopped talking about deficit reduction. They haven't, they won't and they'd be crazy to, because it links into their most effective campaign which is based on moral condemnation of what they would characterise as Labour's spineless profligacy.
    Wrong. You said the deficit will be the *election battleground*. I said it won't be. We shall see who is right.
    Read the thread and you will see what I'm responding to on this thread (and what you wrongly wholeheartedly agreed with).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    @SeanF


    IMHO, the best thing the government could do politically is to cut Employees' national insurance contribution, providing a measurable boost to people on low to medium incomes. Voters like prizes.
    That's a great policy. Cutting lower-end national insurance contributions using printed money is a rare combination of "sounds good" and "works well". It also fits in quite nicely with perceptions that the economy isn't really fixed, because it sounds (and is) very plausible as a job creation measure.

    It's also step one of Matt Yglesias's Five Steps To Fix Everything. They could take a look at the other four while they're at it...
    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/10/23/how_to_fix_everything.html


    Isn't ukip the only party suggesting this?
  • Financier said:



    @Plato

    Unfortunately NI is now really part of Income Tax and is too easy to collect. However, I could see the "discount" on employer's NI given to SMEs being extended - I have never seen a tax on jobs being a sensible tax - but Labour has always been prepared to ramp it up.

    Why is employer's NI a tax on jobs, but employee's NI and Income Tax not? If, in order to recruit someone, a business needs to pay an employee, say £2,000 per month after tax, isn't any tax an additional cost on that.

    The reason I hate employer's NI is that it can be raised without affecting take home pay. Unless, as in our case, after the 2002 election, when employer's NI was raised, therefore the company wage bill was raised, so they made 3% of the workforce redundant.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    I don't disagree with any of that. But the original (incorrect) point was that the Tories had stopped talking about deficit reduction. They haven't, they won't and they'd be crazy to, because it links into their most effective campaign which is based on moral condemnation of what they would characterise as Labour's spineless profligacy.
    Wrong. You said the deficit will be the *election battleground*. I said it won't be. We shall see who is right.
    Read the thread and you will see what I'm responding to on this thread (and what you wrongly wholeheartedly agreed with).
    Stop wobbling and wiggling. You said I was dead wrong for saying GE2015 won't be fought on the deficit. Do you hold that view still or not?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    There seems to be remarkable complacency amongst Labour supporters. There lead at this stage is hardly stratospheric. The economy, whether they choose to admit it or not is improving. And they genuinely seem to think that when it comes to the crunch, when people are in the ballot box, they will not ask themselves, are Ed Milliband and Ed Balls (Ed Balls!), good for my job and good for my future?

    What is your election forecast?
  • Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    I don't disagree with any of that. But the original (incorrect) point was that the Tories had stopped talking about deficit reduction. They haven't, they won't and they'd be crazy to, because it links into their most effective campaign which is based on moral condemnation of what they would characterise as Labour's spineless profligacy.
    Wrong. You said the deficit will be the *election battleground*. I said it won't be. We shall see who is right.
    Read the thread and you will see what I'm responding to on this thread (and what you wrongly wholeheartedly agreed with).
    Stop wobbling and wiggling. You said I was dead wrong for saying GE2015 won't be fought on the deficit. Do you hold that view still or not?
    I'm neither wobbling nor wiggling. The Conservatives will fight the next election beating Ed Miliband around the head with Labour's inability to deal with the deficit. And you will wince every time they do so.

    But it's difficult to have a sensible conversation about this subject with someone who has already had the Conservatives' set piece conference speeches pointed out to him and has simply ignored their central theme.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Yes, as you know. Stop being waspish. My point, if you'd even bothered to read/engage with it, is that electorate do not. To talk about the deficit drags the conversation on to the debt - which will have doubled from the 2010 level by 2015. If the Tories want to major on the public finances, they can, but they aren't that stupid.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL - really its just pathetic.

    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    One teeny tiny factor Henry has neglected to mention : Who gets the blame for the mess?"

    Does anyone think it will come up in the election campaign?

    Meanwhile, Labour eases slightly in YouGov to 39 +6, tho there is directional encouragement in the internals for Lab and worry for dCon:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l1nhfvd66b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-071113.pdf

    It seems to appeal to one section of society
    rather than to the whole country

    Conservative 51%
    Labour 22%

    2010 Lib Dems

    Conservative 66%
    Labour 17%

    UKIP voters

    Conservative 45%
    Labour 24%


    Bit of an image problem there for a party led by incompetent fops.
    The Tories will be unwise to attempt to lay the blame for the mess at Labour's door in 2015. By that point they will have been in power for five years and if living standards are still going backwards it's unlikely the electorate will blame Labour for it...
    Margaret Thatcher - last in power over 20 years ago and now deceased. And not a week goes by when someone on the left will blame her for something.
    Unite.

    Two days ago.

    “The seeds for this situation were sown in the 1980’s when the Thatcher government used European structural funds to close shipyards, rather than funding investment that would have allowed Britain to compete in the global marketplace for shipbuilding orders against the likes of South Korea.”

    http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-to-fight-for-a-future-for-shipbuilding/
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Mr. Ajob, the alternative would've been reducing the deficit to a surplus by about halfway through the Parliament. If Labour wanted that, or consider it a good thing, they have no leg to stand on whatsoever as they bleated about cuts being 'too far and too fast' despite being done at a far slower rate.

    Of course. But the electorate think the government is "paying down the debt" - not least because that's what government ministers often say. They are in for a rude awakening when they see that the debt has doubled by 2015.
  • Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Yes, as you know. Stop being waspish. My point, if you'd even bothered to read/engage with it, is that electorate do not. To talk about the deficit drags the conversation on to the debt - which will have doubled from the 2010 level by 2015. If the Tories want to major on the public finances, they can, but they aren't that stupid.
    As an intellectual exercise, I wonder what you would think the Tories' best theme for the next election might be.

    *ponders deeply*

    I've got it! Repeal the restriction on child benefit!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    201 Ways Councils can save money.

    Cllr Harry Phibbs – from Hammersmith & Fulham council where they have cut Band D bills 17 per cent since 2007 – compiled a list of 201 ways to save money in local government. Some of the items can yield big savings, like sharing services with other public sector bodies. Other recommendations are about changing the culture at councils, like implementing maximum word limits in reports. This will keep staff focused on providing services, not shuffling paper.

    This is worth a read even if you may not agree with all his ideas. The only place I have found it is on the TPA site.

    http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/201waystosavemoney.pdf
  • Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    And here is what David Cameron said in his conference speech last month:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2013/10/david-camerons-speech-conservative-party-conference-2013-full-text

    "These past few years have been a real struggle.

    But what people want to know now is: was the struggle worth it?

    And here's the honest answer.

    The struggle will only be worth it if we as a country finish the job we've started.

    Finishing the job means understanding this.

    Our economy may be turning the corner - and of course that's great.

    But we still haven't finished paying for Labour's Debt Crisis.

    If anyone thinks that's over, done, dealt with - they're living in a fantasy land.

    This country's debt crisis, created by Labour, is not over.

    After three years of cuts, we still have one of the biggest deficits in the world.

    We are still spending more than we earn.

    We still need to earn more and yes, our Government still needs to spend less.

    I see that Labour have stopped talking about the debt crisis and now they talk about the cost of living crisis.

    As if one wasn't directly related to the other.

    If you want to know what happens if you don't deal with a debt crisis..

    ...and how it affects the cost of living...

    ...just go and ask the Greeks.

    So finishing the job means sticking to our course until we've paid off all of Labour's deficit, not just some of it.

    And yes - let's run a surplus so that this time we fix the roof when the sun is shining...

    ...as George said in that brilliant speech on Monday.

    To abandon deficit reduction now would throw away all the progress we've made.

    It would put us back to square one.

    Unbelievably, that's exactly what Labour now want to do.

    How did they get us into this mess?

    Too much spending, too much borrowing, too much debt.

    And what did they propose last week?

    More spending, more borrowing, more debt.

    They have learned nothing - literally nothing - from the crisis they created."

    focusing on the pound in people's pockets.
    There's a great Labour phrase! (For those of us old enough to remember....).

  • Bobajob said:

    There seems to be remarkable complacency amongst Labour supporters. There lead at this stage is hardly stratospheric. The economy, whether they choose to admit it or not is improving. And they genuinely seem to think that when it comes to the crunch, when people are in the ballot box, they will not ask themselves, are Ed Milliband and Ed Balls (Ed Balls!), good for my job and good for my future?

    What is your election forecast?
    It's hard to say at this stage, it largely depends on when or if pay rises start to feed in to the wider economy as they are in my own industry, so I won't make any rash predictions that will come back to haunt me. All I'm saying is that I don't believe as of 8th November 2013 that Labour have the next election won.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What is such a pity is that so few employees have a clue about employers NI. I had no idea it was a tax until I processed payroll back in my 20s for a temping agency. Unless you've worked in payroll or run a business - how would you ever know?

    I'd like to see the Tories explain this much more clearly - when the vast majority have no idea what Tax On Jobs means - how can they expect to be motivated by it?

    Financier said:



    @Plato

    Unfortunately NI is now really part of Income Tax and is too easy to collect. However, I could see the "discount" on employer's NI given to SMEs being extended - I have never seen a tax on jobs being a sensible tax - but Labour has always been prepared to ramp it up.

    Why is employer's NI a tax on jobs, but employee's NI and Income Tax not? If, in order to recruit someone, a business needs to pay an employee, say £2,000 per month after tax, isn't any tax an additional cost on that.

    The reason I hate employer's NI is that it can be raised without affecting take home pay. Unless, as in our case, after the 2002 election, when employer's NI was raised, therefore the company wage bill was raised, so they made 3% of the workforce redundant.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @Antifrank - saying it and doing it are very different things. The economy is growing again; in part, at least, because the government is spending money (see help to buy, for example). If the deficit remains the number one priority, there can be no giveaways between now and the election. We'll see if that happens.

    Are you saying help to buy is the major reason the economy is growing?

    No, I am saying it is an example of the government prioritising spending. It's a classic stimulus measure. It's also holding down petrol prices and will even be subsidising them in some places. If deficit reduction were it's number one priority this would not be happening - unless it accepts that, actually, the government spending more does help to bring the deficit down.

    Have you worked out how exactly HTB is "spending" yet? Or are you set to continue moronically ignoring the facts?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Yes, as you know. Stop being waspish. My point, if you'd even bothered to read/engage with it, is that electorate do not. To talk about the deficit drags the conversation on to the debt - which will have doubled from the 2010 level by 2015. If the Tories want to major on the public finances, they can, but they aren't that stupid.
    As an intellectual exercise, I wonder what you would think the Tories' best theme for the next election might be.

    *ponders deeply*

    I've got it! Repeal the restriction on child benefit!
    Yawn. I see you are bringing up your obsessions again.

    Best strategy - tax cuts. For once I agree with Plato. There is a first time for everything I suppose.

    (I'm not saying that is economically wise but it may be politically so)

  • tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP.
    There's a coherent strategy for you

    Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?

    No.
    When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?

    Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
    Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Financier said:



    @Plato

    Unfortunately NI is now really part of Income Tax and is too easy to collect. However, I could see the "discount" on employer's NI given to SMEs being extended - I have never seen a tax on jobs being a sensible tax - but Labour has always been prepared to ramp it up.

    Why is employer's NI a tax on jobs, but employee's NI and Income Tax not? If, in order to recruit someone, a business needs to pay an employee, say £2,000 per month after tax, isn't any tax an additional cost on that.

    The reason I hate employer's NI is that it can be raised without affecting take home pay. Unless, as in our case, after the 2002 election, when employer's NI was raised, therefore the company wage bill was raised, so they made 3% of the workforce redundant.
    If employer's NI was eliminated then for the same present cost all employers could afford to employ 10% more people - whether they would or not is another matter.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Yes, as you know. Stop being waspish. My point, if you'd even bothered to read/engage with it, is that electorate do not. To talk about the deficit drags the conversation on to the debt - which will have doubled from the 2010 level by 2015. If the Tories want to major on the public finances, they can, but they aren't that stupid.
    In my experience people never raise "the deficit" on the doorstep. Few people understand the finer points of economic theory and of those that do not all share the Tory view that reducing the deficit is the overriding priority. They are much more likely to raise topics that affect them directly - like energy prices (or bin collections or traffic) - droning on about "the deficit" will not attract wavering voters back to the Tories.
  • @Bobajob The Conservatives would be most unwise to undermine their basic selling point which is that they can be trusted with the economy and Labour can't. I do, however, expect some tax cuts to get the public's interest, and there is one which if it is achievable would be highly problematic for Labour and which the Lib Dems would enthusiastically support. But it might well be bad news financially for you personally, I'm afraid, since the books would need balancing.
  • antifrank said:

    Bobajob said:

    antifrank said:

    @Bobajob You were dead wrong then and you're dead wrong now. Here was what George Osborne said at the Tory conference last month.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osbornes-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text-and-audio/

    Deficit reduction is the centrepiece of Tory policy. There's none so blind as will not see.

    Do you really think the government will want to fight a four week election campaign on how its great economic policies have doubled the debt bequeathed by Labour?

    A courageous strategy, minister.
    You do understand what the concept of a deficit is, right?
    Wrong question, what matters is whether the voters understand it.

    But that brings us to the real problem with the line that Bobajob suggests, which is that the factoid about the debt doubling under the Tories may be true (is it? not sure) but even if it is, the voters won't believe it. Especially after Labour have been making a big deal about Tory cuts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2013
    Poor Owen is still smarting about his twitter spat with Hodges - he can't even bring himself to name him:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-do-so-many-critics-of-those-of-us-on-the-left-assume-we-are-consumed-by-class-envy-8927496.html

    And he appears to have mislaid his irony meter entirely:

    "Tony Benn famously said it was about policies, not personalities. He knew that his critics made it about him because then they wouldn’t have to debate the issues. Discredit the person, and then you won’t have to debate the housing crisis, falling wages or the lack of secure work. These attacks will undoubtedly escalate in the run-up to the election,"

    But that's only something the right does.......

  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    edited November 2013
    Financier said:

    Financier said:



    @Plato

    Unfortunately NI is now really part of Income Tax and is too easy to collect. However, I could see the "discount" on employer's NI given to SMEs being extended - I have never seen a tax on jobs being a sensible tax - but Labour has always been prepared to ramp it up.

    Why is employer's NI a tax on jobs, but employee's NI and Income Tax not? If, in order to recruit someone, a business needs to pay an employee, say £2,000 per month after tax, isn't any tax an additional cost on that.

    The reason I hate employer's NI is that it can be raised without affecting take home pay. Unless, as in our case, after the 2002 election, when employer's NI was raised, therefore the company wage bill was raised, so they made 3% of the workforce redundant.
    If employer's NI was eliminated then for the same present cost all employers could afford to employ 10% more people - whether they would or not is another matter.
    The same could be said for Employee's NI and Income tax (although whether it would be possible to reduce salaries on the grounds that take home pay would remain constant would be another matter).
  • One thing I think we can be reasonably sure of is that the playing field in the lead-up to the election will be quite a bit friendlier to the Tories than it is now. It's quite a good moment for Labour because they've been able to announce popular policies that address the voters' concerns without the Tories having much of a response.

    But part of the reason why the Tories don't have much of a response right now is because their response will come later, in the form of pre-election budgets. Tories must be feeling a little bit nervous about running a full-throated campaign against Labour's cynical, economically illiterate pandering while they can't be quite sure what similar cynical, economically illiterate pandering they're going to end up fighting the next election on.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP.
    There's a coherent strategy for you

    Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?

    No.
    When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?

    Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
    Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!

    Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP.
    There's a coherent strategy for you

    Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?

    No.
    When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?

    Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
    Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!

    Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
    Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.

    It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.

    It is bullet proof.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Totally OT but Very Interesting

    Manufacturing Glass Could Reduce Nuclear Waste By 90% - See more at: http://www.iflscience.com/chemistry/manufacturing-glass-could-reduce-nuclear-waste-90#sthash.57fxSAIx.dpuf


  • Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.

    The real question is do you think that Unite bullying reflects well on Labour, or that people who work in businesses where trade unions are prevalent should have additional influence denied to other members of the public, e.g.

    My mother (age late 70s and retired)
    My mother in law (age late 70s and retired)
    My accountant (self employed)
    My gardener (self employed)
    My wife (works part time as a carer)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    if they choose independence + sterling.

    They can't "choose" it without agreement from the BoE and the chancellor
  • TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP.
    There's a coherent strategy for you

    Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?

    No.
    When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?

    Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
    Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!

    Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
    Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.

    It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.

    It is bullet proof.

    Hmmm....voters in Scotland must be incredibly stupid, TG.

    Why do you think they are stupider than in other parts of the UK?

This discussion has been closed.