"British Virgin Islands Caribbean Netherlands (from 1 January 2011) East Timor (uses its own coins) Ecuador (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins; Ecuador adopted the U.S. dollar as its legal tender in 2000.)[35] El Salvador Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia (Micronesia used the U.S. dollar since 1944)[36] Palau (Palau adopted the U.S. dollar since 1944)[36] Panama (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins. This country has adopted the U.S. dollar as legal tender since 1904.)[37] Turks and Caicos Islands"
Ironic that Panama is on that list - home of the Darien scheme..
O/T I found this morning listening to the Today programme and their reporting of Carlos Ghosn of Nissan's comments to be a perfect example of a news organisation reporting a story to completely fit their house view to be incredibly misleading.
The way it was reported was that if the UK left the EU then Nissan would withdraw from the UK. This was followed in headline pieces by the news about MPs trying to cement an EU referendum today.
The effect was clearly to scare people who might want to leave the EU.
The reality of the situation that was not discussed at all by anyone on Today was that Ghosn was asked what would happen if the UK left the EU and he said, as any head of a large company with international markets to consider, that obviously Nissan would have to look at the situation.
He did not say or suggest that they would pull out in any way but it was clearly spun that he did. It is clear that if the UK left the EU then businesses such as Nissan would review the situation and if there would be clear financial losses from being outside the EU then they would be unlikely to continue with operations in the upUK but there was absolutely no recognition in the reporting that the reverse is also true - if the UK left the EU but had a trade agreement that would not punish companies such as Nissan then it would at best make no difference and so they would continue in the UK and possibly, with much EU red tape removed, increase their output. (They might also find that they benefit from the uk being outside of the EU for other markets where EU trade agreements are unhelpful.)
This is the sort of "bias" from the bbc that annoys me where they do not lay out the options because they at best have not analysed the situation in a more rigorous manner or at worst want to use a story to prop up their own position.
Obviously different newspapers will spin this one way or another but the bbc need to be impartial and examine if they are reporting these issues in a fair way or if they do not have the quality of journalists who can provide a balanced report.
They can't "choose" it without agreement from the BoE and the chancellor
They don't need anyone's agreement to use Sterling - its an internationally traded currency - tho of course the BoE could withdraw the guarantee presently behind Scottish banknotes, so they would have to switch to 'Bank of England' notes entirely....the irony, the irony....
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
A 7% swing against the party of an imprisoned wife beater? Impressive!
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Hmmm....voters in Scotland must be incredibly stupid, TG.
Why do you think they are stupider than in other parts of the UK?
I didn't say stupid. They are more tribal and loyal certainly.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Not as stupid as a Scottish Tory in England determined to help Labour by voting for the Tory candidate who will finish third
tim is cross because I voted for a guy who beat a Nazi saluting Labour candidate into 3rd.
Labour have put this serial loser up again in Cambs - he will lose to a ginger LD.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Hmmm....voters in Scotland must be incredibly stupid, TG.
Why do you think they are stupider than in other parts of the UK?
I didn't say stupid. They are more tribal and loyal certainly.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
A 7% swing against the party of an imprisoned wife beater? Impressive!
Remind me what swing the Tories achieved against an imprisoned perverter of the course of justice at Eastleigh.
That's not true. They can choose to use sterling as their currency, of their own volition, and no one can stop them - what are we going to do, invade? Try and stop pound coins crossing the river at Berwick?
I've just been to Zambia where they use the US dollar in parallel with the "Kwacha". America was not involved in that decision.
"They can choose to use sterling as their currency"
No they can't. As with Zambia, they can buy, sell and trade in Sterling. That is not the same thing.
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Hmmm....voters in Scotland must be incredibly stupid, TG.
Why do you think they are stupider than in other parts of the UK?
I didn't say stupid. They are more tribal and loyal certainly.
OK.
Why are they more 'tribal and loyal'?
Think there is a PhD in there - I suspect the environment and conditioning. If I can get anecdotal, 99% of my ex pat acquaintances (inc me) who live outside Scotland are against independence, those who have always lived in Scotland are about 50-50. Probably is same in for voting Con except 99% for or against is the count.
Now is it that those more patriotic chose to stay put or those that moved away received different conditioning ? Pass.
They don't need anyone's agreement to use Sterling - its an internationally traded currency -
So they could 'use' Sterling if they bought the notes
And they don't need anyones agreement to do that - correct?
So Scotland can 'use sterling'?
Their view is probably 'monetary policy is set for London/the South East anyway, so what's going to change?
Where they would need agreement would be to continue issuing Scottish bank notes. Which will be one of the things to be negotiated...along with, oh, Faslane....the Type 26 order....and so forth.....
Just back from Leighton Buzzard, there may be a housing new supply problem inside the M25 but in the sticks they are throwing up new estates it seems - it's doubled in size since I was there last - signs all over the place begging for brickies needed for it.
Same when we go to Stoke on Trent 'burbs. New housing everywhere going up. Just no jobs in that area....commuting to Manchester supposedly?
Quite right. Montenegro has been using the Euro "illegally" but perfectly happily since it became independent. The No campaign has run out of ideas. FFS start making the case for the Union rather than engaging in boring sophistry.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Hmmm....voters in Scotland must be incredibly stupid, TG.
Why do you think they are stupider than in other parts of the UK?
I didn't say stupid. They are more tribal and loyal certainly.
OK.
Why are they more 'tribal and loyal'?
I think alot vote Labour to keep the tories 'out' even though they are the 3rd or 4th party in Scotland. They always seem to remarkably outperform at Westminster elections compared to Holyrood - Alot of Scots just vote SNP for Holyrood and Labour for Westminster, whatever the weather I think.
I'd agree with Mr Flashman that they are very tribal and loyal when it comes to Westminster VI.
Bobajob is also missing the point that Labour will have to continue to engage on the macro economic argument; the Tories will be saying "Look, public finances are back under control, the economy is growing strongly and that is now filtering through to wages and employment, as we said it would. You can't have one without the other". Labour will be left trying to justify how they could have delivered the latter without the former, and against a backdrop that the public believes (with justification) that Labour opposed measures to bring public finances under control. Labour will have to defend their "you have to spend to save" message (actually a core belief) at the same time that the opposite strategy, which Labour vehmently opposed, will appear to be working.
Labour's current positioning on cost of living is politically "clever" in the sense that is discomforts the Conservatives, but the broader picture is that they are losing the debate on public finances and, having staked so much on it, cannot simply walk away and claim it no longer matters.
Of course, the election is still a long way off and much could happen in the meantime: the British economy could be derailed, by internal or external forces or Cameron could be fundamentally discredited by Scotland voting for independence. But at the moment those of us who predicted in 2010 that the Coalition would endure some hard years but would ultimately be proven right are on course to be vindicated. The issue has always been whether the recovery would be sufficiently entrenched that the Coalition parties could persuade the electorate that the pain was worthwhile. I am less confident of that now than I was in 2010, for a combination of reasons including the weaknesses of the Tory leadership (Cameron and Osborne - out of touch, Clegg - somewhat unfairly cast as a joke), Labour's attack machine being more effecutive, more forensic and more shameless than I anticipated, the Tory press being less reliably Tory, boundaries not changing and UKIP's vote holding up). But the Tories still have a reasonable chance of overcoming the current deficit in the polls.
BTW, aren't Labour supporters just a teensy bit nervous that after six weeks of their man tapping into the mood of the public with popular policies and apparently plastering Cameron over the walls of Westminster the Labour lead has hardened by perhaps two points, to the kind of levels that would have disappointed at any point during H1 2013?
That's not true. They can choose to use sterling as their currency, of their own volition, and no one can stop them - what are we going to do, invade? Try and stop pound coins crossing the river at Berwick?
I've just been to Zambia where they use the US dollar in parallel with the "Kwacha". America was not involved in that decision.
"They can choose to use sterling as their currency"
No they can't. As with Zambia, they can buy, sell and trade in Sterling. That is not the same thing.
Semantics. They could also print a currency, call it the McPound, and peg it at one to one with sterling, shadowing all of the BoE's rate changes etc. So yes they can *use* sterling - but, as the FT article makes clear, Salmond's dream about a seat on the BoE board is just that - a dream. Would never happen.
Even if Salmond got a seat for a scot on the board, he would still complain it was rUK dominated.
Mr. Ajob, the Scottish becoming independent and actually losing influence over their monetary policy is quite significant. There's also the question of a lender of last resort, which is more than just a hypothetical matter given the recent events in the eurozone and here.
There's also the question of a lender of last resort
Scotland 'using' Sterling in the terms defined by those upthread would have no lender of last resort.
If they want to 'use' Sterling in a currency union, with a lender of last resort, they would need the agreement of the BoE and the chancellor, which is where we started...
They don't need anyone's agreement to use Sterling - its an internationally traded currency -
So they could 'use' Sterling if they bought the notes
And they don't need anyones agreement to do that - correct?
So Scotland can 'use sterling'?
Their view is probably 'monetary policy is set for London/the South East anyway, so what's going to change?
Where they would need agreement would be to continue issuing Scottish bank notes. Which will be one of the things to be negotiated...along with, oh, Faslane....the Type 26 order....and so forth.....
I don't think monetary policy would change that much with an indy Scotland as (I think) the Scots are relatively neutral on incomings and outgoings to the exchequer - what Aberdeen/Edinburgh gives, Glasgow takes...
"GDP figures simply won’t win votes on their own. "
.
GDP is more than a number. If the economy grows by 4-5% or so between now and the next election, that'll show up somewhere; either in terms of falling unemployment, or rising wages, or extra revenues for the government, providing scope for reductions in taxation.
IMHO, the best thing the government could do politically is to cut Employees' national insurance contribution, providing a measurable boost to people on low to medium incomes. Voters like prizes.
Overall, the economic recovery to date has had an impact on the government's standing. Approval of the government's handling of the economy has moved from the high twenties to the high thirties; net disapproval of the government has moved from the high thirties to the high twenties.
Sean, Antifrank is right on this one and you are also underestimating the problem. If the economy grows another 5% between now and the election, which is possible, it is entirely possible that that extra money is absorbed by bringing spending back within what we actually earn. If the government took it all in extra taxes, for example, we would still have a government that was spending more than we pay in tax.
As Cameron rightly says we are nowhere near out of this yet. There is no money for tax cuts that are not funded by increases elsewhere or cuts in spending. In fact we should continue to have both: tax increases, probably by fiscal drag, and cuts.
The tories' problem is how much of the truth the British people are willing to take. And Labour, per Nick this morning, think it is time to spend again. I would like to think that good sense will prevail but the polls point otherwise, at least at the moment.
"GDP figures simply won’t win votes on their own. "
.
GDP is more than a number. If the economy grows by 4-5% or so between now and the next election, that'll show up somewhere; either in terms of falling unemployment, or rising wages, or extra revenues for the government, providing scope for reductions in taxation.
IMHO, the best thing the government could do politically is to cut Employees' national insurance contribution, providing a measurable boost to people on low to medium incomes. Voters like prizes.
Overall, the economic recovery to date has had an impact on the government's standing. Approval of the government's handling of the economy has moved from the high twenties to the high thirties; net disapproval of the government has moved from the high thirties to the high twenties.
Sean, Antifrank is right on this one and you are also underestimating the problem. If the economy grows another 5% between now and the election, which is possible, it is entirely possible that that extra money is absorbed by bringing spending back within what we actually earn. If the government took it all in extra taxes, for example, we would still have a government that was spending more than we pay in tax.
As Cameron rightly says we are nowhere near out of this yet. There is no money for tax cuts that are not funded by increases elsewhere or cuts in spending. In fact we should continue to have both: tax increases, probably by fiscal drag, and cuts.
The tories' problem is how much of the truth the British people are willing to take. And Labour, per Nick this morning, think it is time to spend again. I would like to think that good sense will prevail but the polls point otherwise, at least at the moment.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
A 7% swing against the party of an imprisoned wife beater? Impressive!
Indeed.
Given the horrific circumstances inherited from Walker, it is truly astounding how badly SLab performed in Dunfermline. Setting aside the less than impressive Lab candidate, it points to a fundamental weakness in Labour support in areas they have traditionally been a shoo-in.
Dunfermline actually showed a Lan to SNP swing compared to the council elections in 2012, and was the 2nd best SNP result in that area, ever.
Falkirk is probably only a small part of the explanation. Far more significant is that SLab have not had a competent, strategic thinker as leader since the much-missed Wendy Alexander. And there is nobody in the current front bench that looks remotely like decent leadership material. Political parties do not solve a problem like that in a hurry. It will take them at least a generation to bring through some competent leader material.
It's a cliché that Scottish Labour voters vote they way they do because that's what their fathers and grandfathers did, and it's a cliché based depressingly on fact; I'm surprised we haven't had someone at a Scottish Antiques Roadshow presenting their Labour membership as a family heirloom (amusingly Ed M. is presenting the multiple purchases of memberships in Falkirk as a charming family tradition). The fact that there was a disproportionate Scottish input into the foundation and forming of the Labour party probably feeds into generational loyalty also.
Mr. Divvie, it's not a Scottish-specific problem. Many in this area vote Labour because they always have and their parents always did (it's changed a little because the constituency gets redrawn all the time). That said, the 0 changes at the last General Election in Scotland was surprising.
you think they'll announce that the featherbedding of pensioners will cease in this new truth?
Do you really think Ed is going to go on a ticket of hitting pensioners? That's a serious question by the way. Especially given the way Brown operated at the last election...
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
She's the sort of Conservative who drives Conservative voters into the arms of UKIP.
SeanT tweets: Today I am buying an Ipad Air. It's a one man bid to boost the UK economy with consumer spending. Selfless patriotism is my sole motivation.
Three tweets further on:
Shop is evacuated and fire brigade are called after brand new iPad Air EXPLODES and fills mobile phone store with smoke Sparks and smoke flew from device released on November 1 Vodaphone store had to be evacuated following incident
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Not as stupid as a Scottish Tory in England determined to help Labour by voting for the Tory candidate who will finish third
Why is it stupid to vote for the candidate you favour?
Has anyone got any polling on how people who have moved to Scotland vote?
Just what my feeling is, that English people moving to Scotland would be largely in favour of the union. My in-laws which live in Scotland certainly are..
There seems to be remarkable complacency amongst Labour supporters. There lead at this stage is hardly stratospheric. The economy, whether they choose to admit it or not is improving. And they genuinely seem to think that when it comes to the crunch, when people are in the ballot box, they will not ask themselves, are Ed Milliband and Ed Balls (Ed Balls!), good for my job and good for my future?
Indeed. The voters say that the economy is the most important issue. Which party to they most favour on that issue? The Conservatives. Which party do they most blame for our economic predicament? Labour. It would be bold to imagine that they'd therefore want to return a Labour government in 2015.
Has anyone got any polling on how people who have moved to Scotland vote?
Just what my feeling is, that English people moving to Scotland would be largely in favour of the union. My in-laws which live in Scotland certainly are..
Not got tables to hand, but I remember that a pollster (Curtice?) looked at this issue, but it was an awful long time ago, perhaps 10 years ago.
The conclusion was that English people living in Scotland vote Con/Lab/LD/SNP in approximately the same proportion as Scots do.
However, 10+ years ago the voting pattern was very different, with much higher Lab/LD voter numbers. It would be interesting to get some more up to date survey data, now that the SNP vote is much more significant.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
Can you think of a single event that would damage the Labour vote in Scotland.
It survived the Iraq war, the worst PM ever and the wrecking of the economy.
It is bullet proof.
Not as stupid as a Scottish Tory in England determined to help Labour by voting for the Tory candidate who will finish third
Why is it stupid to vote for the candidate you favour?
You've said it'd be stupid to vote for the party you belong to in your seat, you know why.
I've never said it would be stupid. It's just that I'd vote Conservative in a Con/Lab marginal as the lesser of two evils.
But, if someone takes the view that they'd actually like to express support for the party they favour, rather than going for the lesser of two evils, that's a rational choice.
So the PB Tories want to concentrate on deficit reduction with a giveaway Autumn Statement and are silent on cuts to pensioner spending due to fear of UKIP. There's a coherent strategy for you
Is Falkirk over tim ? Y/N ?
No. When will it impact on the polls in your opinion?
Ignoring the polling and the top of the thread and rambling about Falkirk all day simply tells us why you don't understand the polling
Says the man ignoring the Scottish polling on Falkirk.....but that's London Labour for you!
Real Scottish voting at Dunfirmline did not suggest that Falkirk is damaging the Labour vote.
A 7% swing against the party of an imprisoned wife beater? Impressive!
Indeed.
Given the horrific circumstances inherited from Walker, it is truly astounding how badly SLab performed in Dunfermline. Setting aside the less than impressive Lab candidate, it points to a fundamental weakness in Labour support in areas they have traditionally been a shoo-in.
Dunfermline actually showed a Lan to SNP swing compared to the council elections in 2012, and was the 2nd best SNP result in that area, ever.
Falkirk is probably only a small part of the explanation. Far more significant is that SLab have not had a competent, strategic thinker as leader since the much-missed Wendy Alexander. And there is nobody in the current front bench that looks remotely like decent leadership material. Political parties do not solve a problem like that in a hurry. It will take them at least a generation to bring through some competent leader material.
Is it that, or is it that the anti-Labour vote is now much more organised in Scotland; so that Labour gets hit by antis there, just as the Tories do in England?
This is rather good. I was staggered to read about the impact of Obamacare has/will be.
"In an interview with NBC news on Thursday he said "sorry" that some Americans are losing their health insurance as a result of Obamacare coming into effect - and for promising that this wouldn't happen. Here's the quote (with all the "er"s and "uh"s taken out):
I am sorry that they are finding themselves in this situation based on assurances they got from me. We’ve got to work hard to make sure that they know we hear them and we are going to do everything we can to deal with folks who find themselves in a tough position as a consequence of this.
His words will be small comfort to the millions who risk losing their existing plans, but it's still a moment of historical significance to hear Barack Obama apologise for screwing up.
And he screwed up big time. We now know that members of the administration knew since the summer of 2010 that people would lose out, yet the President said multiple times that this wasn't the case – as shown in this wonderful video posted by the Washington Free Beacon:
Disagree. Most referendums are won/lost by negative campaigning, as people get nervous of radical change, that's why the status quo usually wins in referendums. The No side are quite right to focus on the currency issue, as it is a great, big, unstaunchable bleeding wound in the Scot Nat flank: a crucial question to which they have no coherent answer, as there isn't one.
Latest TNS Indy poll:
'More than a third (37%) of voters want to know more about pensions/benefits and 31% are looking for more information on taxes. Other issues where people want to be better informed are immigration (22%), Scotland’s share of the UK national debt (20%) and defence (18%). Considerable media discussion about other issues has not resulted in a thirst for more information: only 13% want to be better informed about the implications of independence for the currency'
"The tories' problem is how much of the truth the British people are willing to take. And Labour, per Nick this morning, think it is time to spend again."
You keep ignoring the fact that spending is higher than under Labour and on the rise. Why would anyone think the Tories "truth" is any different from last time.
you think they'll announce that the featherbedding of pensioners will cease in this new truth?
And you keep ignoring the fact that spending is down in real terms and only up in nominal terms. Despite an ever increasing interest rate bill. Despite the built in increases in public spending created by the last government that they have had to contend with. Despite insanities such as PFI contracts and the nonsense we have seen with the carriers this week. Despite the consequences of the EZ crisis on growth 2010-12.
It is true that Darling would probably have cut more but we know of course that he was not going to be Chancellor after the election anyway for precisely that reason. Balls would have spent more. They don't have much of an economic policy but he is very clear about that.
Has anyone got any polling on how people who have moved to Scotland vote?
Not that I recall. Re. Independence, lots of anecdata about English folk settling in Scotland and voting for Yes, therefore not evidence I guess there may be a shy Unionism factor.
Is it that, or is it that the anti-Labour vote is now much more organised in Scotland; so that Labour gets hit by antis there, just as the Tories do in England?
I agree that nowadays it is far clearer who anti-LAB tactical voters need to vote for (the SNP) than it was 10 to 20 years ago (it varied from seat to seat).
However, the weak leader/weak frontbench issue is far more significant than the much more organised anti-Labour vote or the Falkirk scandal. There is of course a long list of reasons explaining the mess that SLab finds itself in.
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Farage was rubbish last night and got totally roasted by the audience and Anna Soubry.
Nick Palmer's got a big battle on his hands in Broxtowe.
Whatever the merits of the house price surge it is now going national. Bloomberg says prices are now rising in all regions for the first time in donkeys, citing a new report.
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Farage was rubbish last night and got totally roasted by the audience and Anna Soubry.
Nick Palmer got a big battle on his hand in Broxtowe.
Has anyone got any polling on how people who have moved to Scotland vote?
Not that I recall. Re. Independence, lots of anecdata about English folk settling in Scotland and voting for Yes, therefore not evidence I guess there may be a shy Unionism factor.
A poll of my two english children (21 and 17) living in Scotland returned:
No - 100%
Yes - 0%
FWIW, amongst their friends at Uni/school, they reckon it splits roughly 80/20 in favour of No but their friends may not necessarily be representitive.
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Farage was rubbish last night and got totally roasted by the audience and Anna Soubry.
Nick Palmer's got a big battle on his hands in Broxtowe.
Thanks for the odds you posted last night when I was "tired and emotional" : ) the Sourby price looks outstanding - got on this morning.
Disagree. Most referendums are won/lost by negative campaigning, as people get nervous of radical change, that's why the status quo usually wins in referendums. The No side are quite right to focus on the currency issue, as it is a great, big, unstaunchable bleeding wound in the Scot Nat flank: a crucial question to which they have no coherent answer, as there isn't one.
Latest TNS Indy poll:
'More than a third (37%) of voters want to know more about pensions/benefits and 31% are looking for more information on taxes. Other issues where people want to be better informed are immigration (22%), Scotland’s share of the UK national debt (20%) and defence (18%). Considerable media discussion about other issues has not resulted in a thirst for more information: only 13% want to be better informed about the implications of independence for the currency'
It's a cliché that Scottish Labour voters vote they way they do because that's what their fathers and grandfathers did, and it's a cliché based depressingly on fact; I'm surprised we haven't had someone at a Scottish Antiques Roadshow presenting their Labour membership as a family heirloom (amusingly Ed M. is presenting the multiple purchases of memberships in Falkirk as a charming family tradition). The fact that there was a disproportionate Scottish input into the foundation and forming of the Labour party probably feeds into generational loyalty also.
You are much closer to the people of Scotland than I am, Union, so I have to respect your opinion, and I am sure there is something in it, but the theory still falls short, somehow. If it were entirely true, why aren't they still voting for Bonnie Prince Charlie and his successors, like JackW?
My own explanation would be something along the lines of 'they know which side their bread is buttered on and tend to vote accordingly'.
It may not be perfect, but I think it runs better than 'history', or 'stupidity'.
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Farage was rubbish last night and got totally roasted by the audience and Anna Soubry.
Nick Palmer's got a big battle on his hands in Broxtowe.
What a load of rubbish. Talk about seeing what one wants to see.
Even though I don't like Farage as UKIP leader, it was clear that Soubry's harpy act was going to win no one over. In fact I am sure it will be driving more people to support UKIP as well as firming up Nick's support in Broxtowe.
Having had some personal exchanges with Nick I would be very pleased to see him win his seat back in 2015. Another reason why we want to see as much of the atrocious Soubry as possible on the TV. It helps both UKIP and Nick.
On Topic - I don't think the tories have to make people feel they are better off, they have to make them feel they are better off than if the alternative was in power. With the armoury at his disposal from Labour's period in office, if Crosby can't achieve that, he is vastly overrated and over paid.
It's a cliché that Scottish Labour voters vote they way they do because that's what their fathers and grandfathers did, and it's a cliché based depressingly on fact; I'm surprised we haven't had someone at a Scottish Antiques Roadshow presenting their Labour membership as a family heirloom (amusingly Ed M. is presenting the multiple purchases of memberships in Falkirk as a charming family tradition). The fact that there was a disproportionate Scottish input into the foundation and forming of the Labour party probably feeds into generational loyalty also.
You are much closer to the people of Scotland than I am, Union, so I have to respect your opinion, and I am sure there is something in it, but the theory still falls short, somehow. If it were entirely true, why aren't they still voting for Bonnie Prince Charlie and his successors, like JackW?
My own explanation would be something along the lines of 'they know which side their bread is buttered on and tend to vote accordingly'.
It may not be perfect, but I think it runs better than 'history', or 'stupidity'.
The Tories backed Bonnie Prince Charlie. The Whigs backed the Hanoverians.
So, in the sense that approx 15% of Scots still vote Tory, that tradition has not totally died out. However, I wonder how many people who vote Scottish Tory today actually know that that party is the inheritor of the rebel Jacobite faction? Most of them, as loyal Hanoverians/Saxe-Coburg Gotians/Windsorians, would probably be a bit shocked.
My own explanation would be something along the lines of 'they know which side their bread is buttered on and tend to vote accordingly'.
It may not be perfect, but I think it runs better than 'history', or 'stupidity'.
Yes, I expect most electoral groups vote out of a fair degree of (not always rational) self interest, complicated here by 'who will best stand up for Scotland'. Of course that leads on to the meme of the most impoverished constituencies being Labour, and chickens and eggs.
In the tv preambles to the Dunfermline by election, there were at least 3 interviewees who literally said I'm voting Labour because my father did, so it's definitely a factor.
Carlotta raises an important point: how is Scotland going to buy all of these pounds it wants to have in circulation? As the BoE will not default I don't think that we need to worry about the pounds we already have although avoiding having too many RBS and Clydesdale pounds might be a good plan. But where does next week's paycheque come from?
Countries that use another's currency tend to avoid very high domestic inflation but at a very high price. The pressure on their balance of payments is far more instant and a balance of payment crisis (say if oil dropped in value) feeds very rapidly into a restriction in the domestic money supply and a sharp recession. Their governments have to remain pretty mcuh in balance and find borrowing expensive.
It also means that when Chancellor "Iron" Balls decides that the housing bubble triggered by the feckless policies of his predecessor needs to be pricked and interest rates have to go up substantially (probably about 2017) Scotland will have nothing to say about it.
It also means that as Ed "the collossus" Miliband strides the European stage and the pound appreciates rapidly there is nothing we can do about that either.
In both these scenarios a difficult financial situation in Scotland might be made much worse and there will be nothing this supposedly independent country can do about it.
Good idea of the tories to get Anna Soubry on tele last night though. The more voters in marginal seats see that their 'man/woman' is in some position of power and influence the better . In politics nearly all publicity is good publicity. If they could get her in the cabinet by 2015 then looks good for the Browtowe seat for the tories
Elections are like shares. People buy on forward prospects. On this basis I struggle to see what the electorate might price into Tory value other than more of the same. My guess is that a slight majority won't find that attractive and will instead go for the pig in the poke option that is Milliband.
I listened to QT last night which I rarely do. I agree with Mike. I actually wondered whether Farage was drunk so boorish was his behaviour. He made Soubrey sound good. I also liked our favourite overrated poet but the pick of the bunch were the assistant attourney general and the jailbird.
Re Mrs Soubry - I think she's an exceptional media performer - as one would expect her to be given her previous career, and she does a great Mrs T reincarnated.
But I dislike her bossy nannying. So whilst I'd prefer her to win her seat again, I'd like to keep her somewhere where she can't do much damage - the MoD seems perfect for her.
First we had Conservatives for Palmer, now it's the UKIPpers too. Nick should drop the Labour branding and start a new Being Generally Reasonable-Sounding And Nice To Cats Party. They could clean up nationwide.
It only requires a tiny swing against Soubry. She'd be doing incredibly well to hold on. A tight Tory/Labour seat with a sizeable Lib Dem vote. Much depends on whether the locals are happy that Labour are going with NP again or if they'd have prefered someone new. He bucked the national trend to almost hold on in 2010.
Re Mrs Soubry - I think she's an exceptional media performer - as one would expect her to be given her previous career, and she does a great Mrs T reincarnated.
But I dislike her bossy nannying. So whilst I'd prefer her to win her seat again, I'd like to keep her somewhere where she can't do much damage - the MoD seems perfect for her.
Surely the MOD is one place where people can do a lot of damage!!! Anyway being a bit bossy is perhaps a good thing for a Maggie wannabee. It did her a lot of good!!
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Farage was rubbish last night and got totally roasted by the audience and Anna Soubry.
Nick Palmer's got a big battle on his hands in Broxtowe.
I have to say, and with all due respect to Mike (for whom I have an immense amount of admiration), that having seen the programme just now I don't know where he's coming from.
On the first question Soubry was shown to be wrong: RN supply ships ARE being built in S Korea. There are plenty of good reasons for that (cost etc.) but rather than state them she initially denied that any RN ships were being built in Korea and then, when challenged, she said (despite being defence minister) that she "didn't know".
On the second question she looked ridiculous as she was shaking her head vigorously as Farage said that the town of Boston had been through a "population explosion as a direct result of [the UK's] membership of the EU". However then Farage quoted the official figures showing an increase in the foreigner population of 467% over the period: if that's not a population explosion I don't know what is. Quite apart from it being very bad manners to react so obviously and deliberately while someone else is speaking her reaction looked absurd compared to the facts and once again she looked as if she simply didn't know.
I have a very serious disagreement with Nick Palmer on the question of animal rights (he would probably call it "animal welfare") but on the basis of last night's performance even I might be moved to vote for him in Broxtowe simply to get Soubry out- she was that rude and ignorant (unlike Nick who, on here at least, comes across as neither). Unfortunately for Nick I don't live in Broxtowe so I can be of no help to him but on the basis of last night I don't think he will need me!
It's a cliché that Scottish Labour voters vote they way they do because that's what their fathers and grandfathers did, and it's a cliché based depressingly on fact; I'm surprised we haven't had someone at a Scottish Antiques Roadshow presenting their Labour membership as a family heirloom (amusingly Ed M. is presenting the multiple purchases of memberships in Falkirk as a charming family tradition). The fact that there was a disproportionate Scottish input into the foundation and forming of the Labour party probably feeds into generational loyalty also.
You are much closer to the people of Scotland than I am, Union, so I have to respect your opinion, and I am sure there is something in it, but the theory still falls short, somehow. If it were entirely true, why aren't they still voting for Bonnie Prince Charlie and his successors, like JackW?
My own explanation would be something along the lines of 'they know which side their bread is buttered on and tend to vote accordingly'.
It may not be perfect, but I think it runs better than 'history', or 'stupidity'.
The Tories backed Bonnie Prince Charlie. The Whigs backed the Hanoverians.
So, in the sense that approx 15% of Scots still vote Tory, that tradition has not totally died out. However, I wonder how many people who vote Scottish Tory today actually know that that party is the inheritor of the rebel Jacobite faction? Most of them, as loyal Hanoverians/Saxe-Coburg Gotians/Windsorians, would probably be a bit shocked.
Everyone's a Jacobite once they have a kilt on and a couple of drams inside them. And there's the clan thing: the Frasers are still seriously incensed by events in 1747.
It only requires a tiny swing against Soubry. She'd be doing incredibly well to hold on. A tight Tory/Labour seat with a sizeable Lib Dem vote. Much depends on whether the locals are happy that Labour are going with NP again or if they'd have prefered someone new. He bucked the national trend to almost hold on in 2010.
Yes the bare numbers look a bit grim for Soubry . But she is a fairly stand out character in that she is a bit bossy and matter of fact in tone. It may work to distinguish her from the herd or it may not. If you are in danger in the normal course of things then you need to be a bit different. She needs to be on tele a lot before 2015
It only requires a tiny swing against Soubry. She'd be doing incredibly well to hold on. A tight Tory/Labour seat with a sizeable Lib Dem vote. Much depends on whether the locals are happy that Labour are going with NP again or if they'd have prefered someone new. He bucked the national trend to almost hold on in 2010.
Yes the bare numbers look a bit grim for Soubry . But she is a fairly stand out character in that she is a bit bossy and matter of fact in tone. It may work to distinguish her from the herd or it may not. If you are in danger in the normal course of things then you need to be a bit different. She needs to be on tele a lot before 2015
First we had Conservatives for Palmer, now it's the UKIPpers too. Nick should drop the Labour branding and start a new Being Generally Reasonable-Sounding And Nice To Cats Party. They could clean up nationwide.
It only requires a tiny swing against Soubry. She'd be doing incredibly well to hold on. A tight Tory/Labour seat with a sizeable Lib Dem vote. Much depends on whether the locals are happy that Labour are going with NP again or if they'd have prefered someone new. He bucked the national trend to almost hold on in 2010.
Yes the bare numbers look a bit grim for Soubry . But she is a fairly stand out character in that she is a bit bossy and matter of fact in tone. It may work to distinguish her from the herd or it may not. If you are in danger in the normal course of things then you need to be a bit different. She needs to be on tele a lot before 2015
True but she sort of got away with by stating (in a matter of fact way) that she did not know certain things (as in a tone of who would expect her to know ). You crumble more if you don't know the facts by pretending you do or not answering the question. As I say she is a bit different from the nice touchy feely politician manuafactured by the hundred in today's climate and she may as well be in the seat she is in.
It was all the funnier during the daft '80s Tory ban on hearing the voices of 'terrorist' politicians hearing his Irish brogue commenting after some nice middle class English VO artist had dubbed Gerry Adams....
I missed that he'd died. Definitely one of the best. The John Arlott of politics. I seldom agree that the Bbc has a left wing bias but I always thought he might have or at least a dislike of Thatcher like most thinking folk at the time.
Tyndall. Do you ever consider what an unpleasant poster you are? Why not leave the insults out just for once?
No I don't. I simply feel it is better to be honest rather than hypocritical like you. For as long as you and other posters such as Tim continue to behave in a thoroughly dishonest and two faced manner in your postings I will happily continue to point that out to you.
There is a simple way for that to stop and that is for you to stop being such a dishonest hypocrite.
The figures look pretty damning for anyone who thinks Grammers are acting as major agents of social mobility. Full of kids on free school meals they are not.
I am not sure where you get that idea from. In the case of the RN supply ships she first denied that any were being built in South Korea and then, when challenged, admitted she didn't know (strange for a defence minister). There are plenty of good reasons (mainly about cost) that she could use to justify building the ships in South Korea but she hobbled herself by denying it in the first place, which meant that her only option then was to say that she was in fact ignorant.
On her demeanor. I admire plain-speaking when it is her turn to speak but I think the attempt to deliberately undermine others on the panel by obvious head-shaking and "making faces" while they are speaking is just plain rude. The only justification for it would be if she was intellectually streets ahead of the other panelists and her lack of factual knowledge showed that she definitely was not.
"matter of fact" ?! Her main problem last night, as far as I could make out was that she didn't actually know the facts!
True but she sort of got away with by stating (in a matter of fact way) that she did not know certain things (as in a tone of who would expect her to know ). You crumble more if you don't know the facts by pretending you do or not answering the question. As I say she is a bit different from the nice touchy feely politician manuafactured by the hundred in today's climate and she may as well be in the seat she is in.
First we had Conservatives for Palmer, now it's the UKIPpers too. Nick should drop the Labour branding and start a new Being Generally Reasonable-Sounding And Nice To Cats Party. They could clean up nationwide.
Tyndall. One day everyone might see the world as you do but I wouldn't hold your breath and while you're waiting if you weren't so bitter you might have a more pleasant time.
"In the tv preambles to the Dunfermline by election, there were at least 3 interviewees who literally said I'm voting Labour because my father did, so it's definitely a factor. "
Yes, it is of course a factor, Union,as I acknowledged.
In fact I could hardly be oblivious since it was the dominant factor in the extended family in which I grew up. Turning out and voting 'as before' was as much a ritual as decamping en masse to Epsom on Derby Day. The big anomoly though was the vote was, to a man and woman, conservative. For a poor working-class family from the East End of London, that was exceptional.
I am not sure how to explain it, except to say that the reasons why people vote the way they do are many and various. Economic self-interest, rational or otherwise, must play a big part and I suppose the fact that my grandfather and many of my relatives were busily involved in the running of small demolition businesses and part-time bookmakers would have affected their political outlooks. Politics (and religion) were seldom discussed however, so I am straying into dangerous territory with my guesswork
I have to say, and with all due respect to Mike (for whom I have an immense amount of admiration), that having seen the programme just now I don't know where he's coming from.
On the first question Soubry was shown to be wrong: RN supply ships ARE being built in S Korea. There are plenty of good reasons for that (cost etc.) but rather than state them she initially denied that any RN ships were being built in Korea and then, when challenged, she said (despite being defence minister) that she "didn't know".
On the second question she looked ridiculous as she was shaking her head vigorously as Farage said that the town of Boston had been through a "population explosion as a direct result of [the UK's] membership of the EU". However then Farage quoted the official figures showing an increase in the foreigner population of 467% over the period: if that's not a population explosion I don't know what is. Quite apart from it being very bad manners to react so obviously and deliberately while someone else is speaking her reaction looked absurd compared to the facts and once again she looked as if she simply didn't know.
I have a very serious disagreement with Nick Palmer on the question of animal rights (he would probably call it "animal welfare") but on the basis of last night's performance even I might be moved to vote for him in Broxtowe simply to get Soubry out- she was that rude and ignorant (unlike Nick who, on here at least, comes across as neither). Unfortunately for Nick I don't live in Broxtowe so I can be of no help to him but on the basis of last night I don't think he will need me!
Almost exactly my position as well - with the exception of the Animal Rights stuff with which I have a little more sympathy with Nick over at least as anti-vivisection goes.
Comments
They have ferk all input obviously - just like Indy Scotland will.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarization#Countries_using_the_U.S._dollar_exclusively
"British Virgin Islands
Caribbean Netherlands (from 1 January 2011)
East Timor (uses its own coins)
Ecuador (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins; Ecuador adopted the U.S. dollar as its legal tender in 2000.)[35]
El Salvador
Marshall Islands
Federated States of Micronesia (Micronesia used the U.S. dollar since 1944)[36]
Palau (Palau adopted the U.S. dollar since 1944)[36]
Panama (uses its own coins in addition to U.S. coins. This country has adopted the U.S. dollar as legal tender since 1904.)[37]
Turks and Caicos Islands"
Ironic that Panama is on that list - home of the Darien scheme..
The way it was reported was that if the UK left the EU then Nissan would withdraw from the UK. This was followed in headline pieces by the news about MPs trying to cement an EU referendum today.
The effect was clearly to scare people who might want to leave the EU.
The reality of the situation that was not discussed at all by anyone on Today was that Ghosn was asked what would happen if the UK left the EU and he said, as any head of a large company with international markets to consider, that obviously Nissan would have to look at the situation.
He did not say or suggest that they would pull out in any way but it was clearly spun that he did. It is clear that if the UK left the EU then businesses such as Nissan would review the situation and if there would be clear financial losses from being outside the EU then they would be unlikely to continue with operations in the upUK but there was absolutely no recognition in the reporting that the reverse is also true - if the UK left the EU but had a trade agreement that would not punish companies such as Nissan then it would at best make no difference and so they would continue in the UK and possibly, with much EU red tape removed, increase their output. (They might also find that they benefit from the uk being outside of the EU for other markets where EU trade agreements are unhelpful.)
This is the sort of "bias" from the bbc that annoys me where they do not lay out the options because they at best have not analysed the situation in a more rigorous manner or at worst want to use a story to prop up their own position.
Obviously different newspapers will spin this one way or another but the bbc need to be impartial and examine if they are reporting these issues in a fair way or if they do not have the quality of journalists who can provide a balanced report.
Yes, Scotland could buy pound notes on the International currency markets (though it is not clear how they would pay for them)
They could not print their own without agreement etc.
So they could 'use' Sterling if they bought the notes, but they can't 'use' Sterling in the way they do now
Labour have put this serial loser up again in Cambs - he will lose to a ginger LD.
Why are they more 'tribal and loyal'?
No they can't. As with Zambia, they can buy, sell and trade in Sterling. That is not the same thing.
john_zims said:
@fitalass
"Farage with his one-trick pony act made Soubry & Pryce look good."
As I have said before I don't think Farage is the best leader for UKIP but last night he was excellent.
And from a UKIP point of view so was Soubry. We need her on the TV all the time because she is brilliant at recruiting new members and support for UKIP with her sanctimonious and patronising attitude to people's genuine concerns.
Now is it that those more patriotic chose to stay put or those that moved away received different conditioning ? Pass.
So Scotland can 'use sterling'?
Their view is probably 'monetary policy is set for London/the South East anyway, so what's going to change?
Where they would need agreement would be to continue issuing Scottish bank notes. Which will be one of the things to be negotiated...along with, oh, Faslane....the Type 26 order....and so forth.....
Just back from Leighton Buzzard, there may be a housing new supply problem inside the M25 but in the sticks they are throwing up new estates it seems - it's doubled in size since I was there last - signs all over the place begging for brickies needed for it.
Same when we go to Stoke on Trent 'burbs. New housing everywhere going up. Just no jobs in that area....commuting to Manchester supposedly?
Quite right. Montenegro has been using the Euro "illegally" but perfectly happily since it became independent. The No campaign has run out of ideas. FFS start making the case for the Union rather than engaging in boring sophistry.
I'd agree with Mr Flashman that they are very tribal and loyal when it comes to Westminster VI.
Labour's current positioning on cost of living is politically "clever" in the sense that is discomforts the Conservatives, but the broader picture is that they are losing the debate on public finances and, having staked so much on it, cannot simply walk away and claim it no longer matters.
Of course, the election is still a long way off and much could happen in the meantime: the British economy could be derailed, by internal or external forces or Cameron could be fundamentally discredited by Scotland voting for independence. But at the moment those of us who predicted in 2010 that the Coalition would endure some hard years but would ultimately be proven right are on course to be vindicated. The issue has always been whether the recovery would be sufficiently entrenched that the Coalition parties could persuade the electorate that the pain was worthwhile. I am less confident of that now than I was in 2010, for a combination of reasons including the weaknesses of the Tory leadership (Cameron and Osborne - out of touch, Clegg - somewhat unfairly cast as a joke), Labour's attack machine being more effecutive, more forensic and more shameless than I anticipated, the Tory press being less reliably Tory, boundaries not changing and UKIP's vote holding up). But the Tories still have a reasonable chance of overcoming the current deficit in the polls.
BTW, aren't Labour supporters just a teensy bit nervous that after six weeks of their man tapping into the mood of the public with popular policies and apparently plastering Cameron over the walls of Westminster the Labour lead has hardened by perhaps two points, to the kind of levels that would have disappointed at any point during H1 2013?
They could 'use' dollars, or Euros, or turnips
If they want to 'use' Sterling in a currency union, with a lender of last resort, they would need the agreement of the BoE and the chancellor, which is where we started...
As Cameron rightly says we are nowhere near out of this yet. There is no money for tax cuts that are not funded by increases elsewhere or cuts in spending. In fact we should continue to have both: tax increases, probably by fiscal drag, and cuts.
The tories' problem is how much of the truth the British people are willing to take. And Labour, per Nick this morning, think it is time to spend again. I would like to think that good sense will prevail but the polls point otherwise, at least at the moment.
Given the horrific circumstances inherited from Walker, it is truly astounding how badly SLab performed in Dunfermline. Setting aside the less than impressive Lab candidate, it points to a fundamental weakness in Labour support in areas they have traditionally been a shoo-in.
Dunfermline actually showed a Lan to SNP swing compared to the council elections in 2012, and was the 2nd best SNP result in that area, ever.
Falkirk is probably only a small part of the explanation. Far more significant is that SLab have not had a competent, strategic thinker as leader since the much-missed Wendy Alexander. And there is nobody in the current front bench that looks remotely like decent leadership material. Political parties do not solve a problem like that in a hurry. It will take them at least a generation to bring through some competent leader material.
Three tweets further on:
Shop is evacuated and fire brigade are called after brand new iPad Air EXPLODES and fills mobile phone store with smoke
Sparks and smoke flew from device released on November 1
Vodaphone store had to be evacuated following incident
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2492189/iPad-Air-EXPLODES-leading-mobile-phone-shop-evacuation.html#ixzz2k371InPC
Not got tables to hand, but I remember that a pollster (Curtice?) looked at this issue, but it was an awful long time ago, perhaps 10 years ago.
The conclusion was that English people living in Scotland vote Con/Lab/LD/SNP in approximately the same proportion as Scots do.
However, 10+ years ago the voting pattern was very different, with much higher Lab/LD voter numbers. It would be interesting to get some more up to date survey data, now that the SNP vote is much more significant.
But, if someone takes the view that they'd actually like to express support for the party they favour, rather than going for the lesser of two evils, that's a rational choice.
"In an interview with NBC news on Thursday he said "sorry" that some Americans are losing their health insurance as a result of Obamacare coming into effect - and for promising that this wouldn't happen. Here's the quote (with all the "er"s and "uh"s taken out):
I am sorry that they are finding themselves in this situation based on assurances they got from me. We’ve got to work hard to make sure that they know we hear them and we are going to do everything we can to deal with folks who find themselves in a tough position as a consequence of this.
His words will be small comfort to the millions who risk losing their existing plans, but it's still a moment of historical significance to hear Barack Obama apologise for screwing up.
And he screwed up big time. We now know that members of the administration knew since the summer of 2010 that people would lose out, yet the President said multiple times that this wasn't the case – as shown in this wonderful video posted by the Washington Free Beacon:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100245053/obama-says-sorry-for-misleading-people-on-obamacare-it-seems-miracles-can-happen/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qpa-5JdCnmo
'More than a third (37%) of voters want to know more about pensions/benefits and 31% are looking for more information on taxes. Other issues where people want to be better informed are immigration (22%), Scotland’s share of the UK national debt (20%) and defence (18%).
Considerable media discussion about other issues has not resulted in a thirst for more information: only 13% want to be better informed about the implications of independence for the currency'
http://tinyurl.com/njtlz5h
TNS 'trend':
No votes recorded by TNS in 2013 -
Mar 52%
Apr 51%
Aug 47%
Sep 44%
Oct 43%
It is true that Darling would probably have cut more but we know of course that he was not going to be Chancellor after the election anyway for precisely that reason. Balls would have spent more. They don't have much of an economic policy but he is very clear about that.
I could give you some anecdotal evidence of that but it's probably libellous, so I'll save it for Dirty Dicks.
Will you be there
Re. Independence, lots of anecdata about English folk settling in Scotland and voting for Yes, therefore not evidence
I guess there may be a shy Unionism factor.
However, the weak leader/weak frontbench issue is far more significant than the much more organised anti-Labour vote or the Falkirk scandal. There is of course a long list of reasons explaining the mess that SLab finds itself in.
Nick Palmer's got a big battle on his hands in Broxtowe.
No - 100%
Yes - 0%
FWIW, amongst their friends at Uni/school, they reckon it splits roughly 80/20 in favour of No but their friends may not necessarily be representitive.
Tee hee. There will be tears before bedtime.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24862743
Kerry, Hague, Laurent Fabius and Guido Westerwelle all changing their plans to join the negotiations in Geneva.
My own explanation would be something along the lines of 'they know which side their bread is buttered on and tend to vote accordingly'.
It may not be perfect, but I think it runs better than 'history', or 'stupidity'.
Even though I don't like Farage as UKIP leader, it was clear that Soubry's harpy act was going to win no one over. In fact I am sure it will be driving more people to support UKIP as well as firming up Nick's support in Broxtowe.
Having had some personal exchanges with Nick I would be very pleased to see him win his seat back in 2015. Another reason why we want to see as much of the atrocious Soubry as possible on the TV. It helps both UKIP and Nick.
So, in the sense that approx 15% of Scots still vote Tory, that tradition has not totally died out. However, I wonder how many people who vote Scottish Tory today actually know that that party is the inheritor of the rebel Jacobite faction? Most of them, as loyal Hanoverians/Saxe-Coburg Gotians/Windsorians, would probably be a bit shocked.
BREAKING NEWS:Former BBC political editor John Cole has died aged 85, his family says
In the tv preambles to the Dunfermline by election, there were at least 3 interviewees who literally said I'm voting Labour because my father did, so it's definitely a factor.
Countries that use another's currency tend to avoid very high domestic inflation but at a very high price. The pressure on their balance of payments is far more instant and a balance of payment crisis (say if oil dropped in value) feeds very rapidly into a restriction in the domestic money supply and a sharp recession. Their governments have to remain pretty mcuh in balance and find borrowing expensive.
It also means that when Chancellor "Iron" Balls decides that the housing bubble triggered by the feckless policies of his predecessor needs to be pricked and interest rates have to go up substantially (probably about 2017) Scotland will have nothing to say about it.
It also means that as Ed "the collossus" Miliband strides the European stage and the pound appreciates rapidly there is nothing we can do about that either.
In both these scenarios a difficult financial situation in Scotland might be made much worse and there will be nothing this supposedly independent country can do about it.
I listened to QT last night which I rarely do. I agree with Mike. I actually wondered whether Farage was drunk so boorish was his behaviour. He made Soubrey sound good. I also liked our favourite overrated poet but the pick of the bunch were the assistant attourney general and the jailbird.
But I dislike her bossy nannying. So whilst I'd prefer her to win her seat again, I'd like to keep her somewhere where she can't do much damage - the MoD seems perfect for her.
"I have to say, and with all due respect to Mike (for whom I have an immense amount of admiration)..."
Profits are up but only because of Jaguar Land Rover's superb performance. The Indian business is making a loss
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10435125/Tory-minister-Anna-Soubry-attacks-Nigel-Farages-scaremongering.html
And the New Statesman rate Soubry's performance vs Farage:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/11/watch-how-tory-minister-anna-soubry-stood-farages-immigration-scaremongering
Summat's up......
Not as popular as dogs but:
'Strongly like cats' 41%, 'Strongly dislike cats 15%'
Palmer is wobbly and vague.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13069441
It was all the funnier during the daft '80s Tory ban on hearing the voices of 'terrorist' politicians hearing his Irish brogue commenting after some nice middle class English VO artist had dubbed Gerry Adams....
Not sure I'm likely to face many queries about HS2 on the doorstep but expect Nick will brief me fully in due course.
I missed that he'd died. Definitely one of the best. The John Arlott of politics. I seldom agree that the Bbc has a left wing bias but I always thought he might have or at least a dislike of Thatcher like most thinking folk at the time.
There is a simple way for that to stop and that is for you to stop being such a dishonest hypocrite.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100244926/why-are-grammar-schools-failing-the-poorest-pupils/
The figures look pretty damning for anyone who thinks Grammers are acting as major agents of social mobility. Full of kids on free school meals they are not.
On her demeanor. I admire plain-speaking when it is her turn to speak but I think the attempt to deliberately undermine others on the panel by obvious head-shaking and "making faces" while they are speaking is just plain rude. The only justification for it would be if she was intellectually streets ahead of the other panelists and her lack of factual knowledge showed that she definitely was not.
Oh and here is a hint - Its not popular
"In the tv preambles to the Dunfermline by election, there were at least 3 interviewees who literally said I'm voting Labour because my father did, so it's definitely a factor. "
Yes, it is of course a factor, Union,as I acknowledged.
In fact I could hardly be oblivious since it was the dominant factor in the extended family in which I grew up. Turning out and voting 'as before' was as much a ritual as decamping en masse to Epsom on Derby Day. The big anomoly though was the vote was, to a man and woman, conservative. For a poor working-class family from the East End of London, that was exceptional.
I am not sure how to explain it, except to say that the reasons why people vote the way they do are many and various. Economic self-interest, rational or otherwise, must play a big part and I suppose the fact that my grandfather and many of my relatives were busily involved in the running of small demolition businesses and part-time bookmakers would have affected their political outlooks. Politics (and religion) were seldom discussed however, so I am straying into dangerous territory with my guesswork
http://ht.ly/qClQV
'Race to the bottom' between energy companies & politicians:
Net Favourable (Neutral)
Energy Companies: -65 (21)
Politicians: -64 (24)
Journalists: -41 (47)
Banks: -31 (39)
Builders: +3 (55)
Mobile Phone Networks +6 (51)
Airlines: +12 (51)
Supermarkets: +33 (38)
Let he who is without sin.......