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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,293

    Is this another correlation: tennis-playing prime ministers? Blair and Cameron both swung a racket.

    I suppose because it is a toffs game.

    Perhaps the sign that barriers are breaking down will come when we have a PM with a genuine and longstanding love of pigeon racing.

    Not holding my breath.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Snip

    The lengths that PBers will go to, even posting whilst having surgery down below.

    I commend you sir ....
    No comment about the lack of a second snip? :smiley::D
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    You know that's not what I'm saying. The peace in Northern Ireland was nurtured under a cloud of respect and reconciliation, as well as an understanding of the EU acting as a bridge between British and Irish.

    One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
    There are lots of compelling reasons for us to have a comprehensive deal with the EU including a FTA which allows the border in NI to remain completely open. But this really isn't one of them. We cannot be blackmailed by a bunch of criminal psychopaths who might threaten to stir up trouble.

    If people resort to terror because a political decision goes against them, then the onus is on the terrorists.
    But it's not about that. You are deliberately simplifying the issue. There was an understanding on the island of Ireland that because the UK and Ireland were both part of the EU, then the status quo of an essentially non-existent border would continue in perpetuity. You are in danger of making people feel they were lied to as part of the Good Friday Agreement.

    Brexit is not simply a "political decision". It's a huge cultural change that will have long standing consequences.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I'm sure that @Philip_Thompson would be prepared to sacrifice his family in an IRA bombing as an acceptable price for not agreeing to the capitulation backstop.

    So what you're saying is you're happy for anyone who can threaten a terrorist attack on British soil to have a say in our foreign policy.

    I'm personally not convinced that Jihadi John, all of his mates, and every right wing nut job who can make a pipebomb should be dictating government policy. But ymmv.
    You know that's not what I'm saying. The peace in Northern Ireland was nurtured under a cloud of respect and reconciliation, as well as an understanding of the EU acting as a bridge between British and Irish.

    One cannot poke that bear without realising what consequences it may unleash.
    There are lots of compelling reasons for us to have a comprehensive deal with the EU including a FTA which allows the border in NI to remain completely open. But this really isn't one of them. We cannot be blackmailed by a bunch of criminal psychopaths who might threaten to stir up trouble.

    If people resort to terror because a political decision goes against them, then the onus is on the terrorists.
    Yep. And with modern technology they might find the game a whole lot rougher than it was back in the 70s.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Peterborough has had problems with electoral fraud in the past.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BBC - Dame Caroline Spelman endorses Rory Stewart
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Snip

    The lengths that PBers will go to, even posting whilst having surgery down below.

    I commend you sir ....
    No comment about the lack of a second snip? :smiley::D
    Did you go private .... pay a lot or was it a snip? ... :sunglasses:
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Peterborough has had problems with electoral fraud in the past.
    Indeed together with an unfortunate run of awful MP's of both parties, not broken by the new incumbent.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    That made me laugh on the previous thread. Gove said if he got the job he'd enjoy sharing his love of Wagner with Merkel!


    But it got me thinking how unlucky we've been with leaders just when we need them most. Who would prefer any of the following to Angela Merkel: Johnson Corbyn Gove Raab Javid McDonnell and Stewart. Embarrassing isn't it?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,655

    Good afternoon, my fellow residents of Atlantis.

    I've been there.

    Well, I've been to Silves, which some believe to be the site of Atlantis.

    Anyway, time to get wet...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Peterborough has had problems with electoral fraud in the past.
    Indeed together with an unfortunate run of awful MP's of both parties, not broken by the new incumbent.
    They do pick them, don't they?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2019
    BBC - Rory Stewart says he has the 33 MP's to go through to the next round.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    Is it FAKE NOOS?! (no it isn't they all tried to con everyone)

    I am not sure if you are just gullible/ignorant or you are a rampant fascist. The good thing about your posts is that it shows the true colours of many people that support Brexit, and it is even more repulsive than many of us feared. Decent people need to put fascist tendencies revealed by Brexit firmly back in a box.
    The backstop is fascist not me if you want to throw around pathetic insults.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JackW said:

    BBC - Rory Stewart says he has the 33 MP's to go through to the next round.

    I hope Javid has 34 then ;)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    JackW said:

    BBC - Dame Caroline Spelman endorses Rory Stewart

    Previously a Hancock supporter.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    JackW said:

    BBC - Dame Caroline Spelman endorses Rory Stewart

    The bandwagon's rolling.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    Snip

    The lengths that PBers will go to, even posting whilst having surgery down below.

    I commend you sir ....
    No comment about the lack of a second snip? :smiley::D
    You are Adolf Schicklegruber and I claim my five pounds!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    JackW said:

    BBC - Dame Caroline Spelman endorses Rory Stewart

    The bandwagon's rolling.
    Bandwagon would be if he's in the high 40s/low 50s or more. Comparable to Hunt.

    Scraping through once more is not a bandwagon.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Roger said:

    That made me laugh on the previous thread. Gove said if he got the job he'd enjoy sharing his love of Wagner with Merkel!


    But it got me thinking how unlucky we've been with leaders just when we need them most. Who would prefer any of the following to Angela Merkel: Johnson Corbyn Gove Raab Javid McDonnell and Stewart. Embarrassing isn't it?

    IIRC Wagner was an anti-semite and was Hitlers favourite composer. Maybe Corbyn likes him as well! It does create a dicotomy as to whether you can appreciate the music given Wagners views.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    Any news about progress on the Free Trade Agreement with Narnia?

    Also the genetic engineering project at the University of Cair Paravel investigating the possibility of the Talking Horses growing horns?
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Chris said:

    Any news about progress on the Free Trade Agreement with Narnia?

    Also the genetic engineering project at the University of Cair Paravel investigating the possibility of the Talking Horses growing horns?

    Chris said:

    Any news about progress on the Free Trade Agreement with Narnia?

    Also the genetic engineering project at the University of Cair Paravel investigating the possibility of the Talking Horses growing horns?

    Nigel Farage lives in my wardrobe. I'll ask.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855

    @Philip_Thompson why is upholding the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland 'absurd'?

    Upholding peace is not absurd. Doing so at any price is.

    The backstop is that NI would be effectively annexed by the EU/Eire and that NI would be subject to EU/Eire laws without getting a say in them. If that had been the agreement proposed on Good Friday it would have (quite rightly) been rejected. As such I am prepared to reject it now. Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.
    "Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed"
    or to put in another way "I don't care if innocent people get murdered provided we leave the Single Market"

    That's appalling!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY
    That video is full of discredited lies. Why are you still posting it? Have you no shame?
    Is it FAKE NOOS?! (no it isn't they all tried to con everyone)

    I am not sure if you are just gullible/ignorant or you are a rampant fascist. The good thing about your posts is that it shows the true colours of many people that support Brexit, and it is even more repulsive than many of us feared. Decent people need to put fascist tendencies revealed by Brexit firmly back in a box.
    The backstop is fascist not me if you want to throw around pathetic insults.
    The F word should only be used when it is merited.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Latest numbers:

    Johnson 98
    Hunt 42
    Gove 36
    Raab 25
    Javid 20
    Stewart 13

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    75% have declared compared to 79% just before the first ballot.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
    My postal vote was rejected at the GE in Richmond in 2017 when Sarah Olney lost to Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes. I had accidentally put my wife's year of birth (1944) instead of my own (1943).
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2019
    Mr Masterton isn't too impressed...

    EDIT: just saw this retweeted but it's actually from a few days ago. It looks a bit awkward now.

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/1139543079172694016
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,100
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    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Any experts on the Tory leadership electoral rules? I have a question about the 33 threshold.

    What happens if the only MP to get more than 33 is Rory?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Latest numbers:

    Johnson 98
    Hunt 42
    Gove 36
    Raab 25
    Javid 20
    Stewart 13

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    75% have declared compared to 79% just before the first ballot.

    So Stewart needs a minimum of another 8 more than Javid and to get 33. Not looking good is it? I am a fan but his odds are silly.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    would anyone be surprised if there was something dodgy here?

    no?

    I know

    right?
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Do they have the result split by PV and on the day?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    edited June 2019
    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Phukov said:

    Any experts on the Tory leadership electoral rules? I have a question about the 33 threshold.

    What happens if the only MP to get more than 33 is Rory?

    We go to hustings between Rory and Boris. Rory would no doubt come under some pressure to allow a coronation - but I suspect he will hold out for a vote of the members.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest numbers:

    Johnson 98
    Hunt 42
    Gove 36
    Raab 25
    Javid 20
    Stewart 13

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    75% have declared compared to 79% just before the first ballot.

    So Stewart needs a minimum of another 8 more than Javid and to get 33. Not looking good is it? I am a fan but his odds are silly.
    We had exactly the same silliness in the first round with Andrea Leadsom being joint second favourite despite having just 4 public supporters.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."

    3.9%. A little higher than average.

    Last 3 generals % postage rejected: 2017 2.4%, 2015 3.3%, 2010 3.8%
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    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.

    That 40-49 bet looks like a shrewd, value bet. Which sadly usually means it loses, such is the way of these things. Best of luck with it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Phukov said:

    Any experts on the Tory leadership electoral rules? I have a question about the 33 threshold.

    What happens if the only MP to get more than 33 is Rory?

    Then there must be over 10 candidates. :p

    Seriously though, it'd go to the final with Boris vs Rory.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Did you read the article? :p

    Boris Johnson once declared that “government by a Scot is just not conceivable in the current constitutional context”, with the Tory MP claiming Gordon Brown suffered from “a personal political disability” as he represented a constituency north of the Border.

    Last time I checked, Penrith and the Borders was south of the border. :D
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    RobD said:

    Phukov said:

    Any experts on the Tory leadership electoral rules? I have a question about the 33 threshold.

    What happens if the only MP to get more than 33 is Rory?

    Then there must be over 10 candidates. :p.
    Or lots of abstentions!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.

    He has 13 public supporters, so would need 20 of the 79 undeclared MPs to go through to the next round.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    would anyone be surprised if there was something dodgy here?

    no?

    I know

    right?
    With those numbers it looks systematic and organised. Plod should be very active in investigating that.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Phukov, ha, yeah, could well be. Cheers. At least I don't have long to wait.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    would anyone be surprised if there was something dodgy here?

    no?

    I know

    right?
    With those numbers it looks systematic and organised. Plod should be very active in investigating that.
    Be interesting if the great bulk were for one party.....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    AndyJS said:

    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.

    He has 13 public supporters, so would need 20 of the 79 undeclared MPs to go through to the next round.
    And to beat one of the others.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure Hancock supporters are impressed by his sell out .

    I doubt many of his supporters will be following him into the Bozo camp.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    Looks the most realistic chance for a Tory recovery.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.

    He has 13 public supporters, so would need 20 of the 79 undeclared MPs to go through to the next round.
    Declared numbers from before the first round should be treated with even more caution now. MPs might want to influence who goes through without publicly repudiating their previous support. Though pledges stood up pretty well in R1, better than I expected.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited June 2019
    Do you think it might be a good time to list Boris's prejudices or is that one for nearer the election? So far it's Gays Scots Piccaninnies Liverpudlians Turks Texans Papua New Guinians .......
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    From this it seems Tory members would like it to be Johnson v Raab.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140563125550362625
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Latest numbers:

    Johnson 98
    Hunt 42
    Gove 36
    Raab 25
    Javid 20
    Stewart 13

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

    75% have declared compared to 79% just before the first ballot.

    So Stewart needs a minimum of another 8 more than Javid and to get 33. Not looking good is it? I am a fan but his odds are silly.
    Stewart had 7 declared and polled 19. Five more declared over the past 36 hours. Noteworthy that Gove, Raab, Javid and Hunt only three since the first ballot.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just put a tiny sum on Rory to get 40-49 MPs at 11 (Ladbrokes, 12 with boost).

    Edited extra bit: he's 1.66 (favourite) for the 30-39 band, incidentally.

    He has 13 public supporters, so would need 20 of the 79 undeclared MPs to go through to the next round.
    And to beat one of the others.
    I think the chance of all the candidates getting 33 votes is very low.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    DavidL said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    would anyone be surprised if there was something dodgy here?

    no?

    I know

    right?
    With those numbers it looks systematic and organised. Plod should be very active in investigating that.
    Be interesting if the great bulk were for one party.....
    It's that wonderful ground game, don't you know? How many harvested votes got through I wonder?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    when do we get results of the donkey derby second round
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    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Andrew said:


    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."

    3.9%. A little higher than average.

    Last 3 generals % postage rejected: 2017 2.4%, 2015 3.3%, 2010 3.8%
    More figures in here.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/81678/Postal-vote-verification-and-rejection-in-Great-Britain.pdf
    Over 4% is not unusual at all.

    This is more conspiracy theory nonsense. Sad to see people get swept up so easily in it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    malcolmg said:

    when do we get results of the donkey derby second round

    Voting is 3-5pm with a result expected at about 6pm.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
    My postal vote was rejected at the GE in Richmond in 2017 when Sarah Olney lost to Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes. I had accidentally put my wife's year of birth (1944) instead of my own (1943).
    My wife's was rejected at last election based on signature, strange.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Phukov said:

    Andrew said:


    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."

    3.9%. A little higher than average.

    Last 3 generals % postage rejected: 2017 2.4%, 2015 3.3%, 2010 3.8%
    More figures in here.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/81678/Postal-vote-verification-and-rejection-in-Great-Britain.pdf
    Over 4% is not unusual at all.

    This is more conspiracy theory nonsense. Sad to see people get swept up so easily in it.
    I had no idea it was so high to be honest. Puts me off having a postal vote. So easy to make a mistake.
  • Options
    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    AndyJS said:

    From this it seems Tory members would like it to be Johnson v Raab.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140563125550362625

    Dumb and dumber...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    AndyJS said:

    malcolmg said:

    when do we get results of the donkey derby second round

    Voting is 3-5pm with a result expected at about 6pm.
    Thanks Andy
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Andrew said:


    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."

    3.9%. A little higher than average.

    Last 3 generals % postage rejected: 2017 2.4%, 2015 3.3%, 2010 3.8%
    More figures in here.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/81678/Postal-vote-verification-and-rejection-in-Great-Britain.pdf
    Over 4% is not unusual at all.

    This is more conspiracy theory nonsense. Sad to see people get swept up so easily in it.
    I had no idea it was so high to be honest. Puts me off having a postal vote. So easy to make a mistake.
    Yes and my wife was also dropped off postal voting as a result. Pretty crap.
  • Options
    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Andrew said:


    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."

    3.9%. A little higher than average.

    Last 3 generals % postage rejected: 2017 2.4%, 2015 3.3%, 2010 3.8%
    More figures in here.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/81678/Postal-vote-verification-and-rejection-in-Great-Britain.pdf
    Over 4% is not unusual at all.

    This is more conspiracy theory nonsense. Sad to see people get swept up so easily in it.
    I had no idea it was so high to be honest. Puts me off having a postal vote. So easy to make a mistake.
    It mightn't be the voter's mistake that gets it rejected. If the info on the database is dodgy for some reason, your correct DOB is a reason to bin your vote.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    Revoke! She made the mess by triggering A50. She can smooth the way for the next PM.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,340
    AndyJS said:

    From this it seems Tory members would like it to be Johnson v Raab.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140563125550362625

    My wife and I received confirmation of our voting rights in the ballot for leader this morning with details of dates to vote in early July and a separate leaflet with a full on attack on Corbyn and request for donations on the back
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
    Yes - please call the whole thing off, Theresa!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    malcolmg said:

    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
    My postal vote was rejected at the GE in Richmond in 2017 when Sarah Olney lost to Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes. I had accidentally put my wife's year of birth (1944) instead of my own (1943).
    My wife's was rejected at last election based on signature, strange.
    Do you get notified if your postal vote is rejected. I've had a postal vote for years and never heard anything...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    The EUs folded on the backstop?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
    The tweet is from 3 yr ago.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    malcolmg said:

    when do we get results of the donkey derby second round

    Tomorrow - once the donkeys have voted.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s hard to know what Stewart will get tomorrow .

    Some MPs maybe reluctant to come out publicly for him, is it possible some might vote for him as they want someone in the Tuesday debate who will go for Bozo and the others will be wary of messing up their chances of a cabinet post .

    One things for sure Hancock’s declaration for Johnson is being seen by many as ditching his principles and so obviously as arse licking move to get a cabinet job .
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
    The tweet is from 3 yr ago.
    Disappointing.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    malcolmg said:

    My wife's was rejected at last election based on signature, strange.

    Wondering if mine might have been - my signature is really inconsistent.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,100
    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    "I endorse Rory Stewart"
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    Roger said:

    Do you think it might be a good time to list Boris's prejudices or is that one for nearer the election? So far it's Gays Scots Piccaninnies Liverpudlians Turks Texans Papua New Guinians .......
    Boris is prejudiced against Turks? He is a Turk!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,100
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Do you think it might be a good time to list Boris's prejudices or is that one for nearer the election? So far it's Gays Scots Piccaninnies Liverpudlians Turks Texans Papua New Guinians .......
    Boris is prejudiced against Turks? He is a Turk!
    Well our Powellite friend is prejudiced against Europeans and gays despite being European and gay, so that's no barrier.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Morsi died in court? That seems quite shocking.
  • Options
    PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
    The tweet is from 3 yr ago.
    Yes, I just found a tweet of an empty podium, to follow on Morris_Dancer's joke about the Empty Chair become PM.
    Sorry everyone, I didn't mean to make you switch on the news frantically.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,898
    I am off the clock. I have a couple of hours before I have to catch my train. I have M&S Sapphire raspberries, melon and grapes and a cherry Pepsi Max. Life is good. Let's see what PB was discussing today..

    Pause.

    Oh, we are so, so fucked...

    :(
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,898
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Do you think it might be a good time to list Boris's prejudices or is that one for nearer the election? So far it's Gays Scots Piccaninnies Liverpudlians Turks Texans Papua New Guinians .......
    Boris is prejudiced against Turks? He is a Turk!
    Which doesn't stop him... :)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    viewcode said:

    I am off the clock. I have a couple of hours before I have to catch my train. I have M&S Sapphire raspberries, melon and grapes and a cherry Pepsi Max. Life is good. Let's see what PB was discussing today..

    Pause.

    Oh, we are so, so fucked...

    :(

    LOL. Those Sapphire raspberries are amazing.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Do you think it might be a good time to list Boris's prejudices or is that one for nearer the election? So far it's Gays Scots Piccaninnies Liverpudlians Turks Texans Papua New Guinians .......
    Boris is prejudiced against Turks? He is a Turk!
    Which doesn't stop him... :)
    TURKS OUT! TURKS OUT!

    (Not me, obviously, chaps!)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    Revoke! She made the mess by triggering A50. She can smooth the way for the next PM.
    why a 3 year old tweet, or am I missing something
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    I am off the clock. I have a couple of hours before I have to catch my train. I have M&S Sapphire raspberries, melon and grapes and a cherry Pepsi Max. Life is good. Let's see what PB was discussing today..

    Pause.

    Oh, we are so, so fucked...

    :(

    LOL. Those Sapphire raspberries are amazing.
    David, you should be doing a Diane Abbott and having a mojito
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,898
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    I am off the clock. I have a couple of hours before I have to catch my train. I have M&S Sapphire raspberries, melon and grapes and a cherry Pepsi Max. Life is good. Let's see what PB was discussing today..

    Pause.

    Oh, we are so, so fucked...

    :(

    LOL. Those Sapphire raspberries are amazing.
    I like them too. They are genuinely nice plus they are low-carb, so yay!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited June 2019
    Phukov said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    I've changed my mind?
    The tweet is from 3 yr ago.
    Yes, I just found a tweet of an empty podium, to follow on Morris_Dancer's joke about the Empty Chair become PM.
    Sorry everyone, I didn't mean to make you switch on the news frantically.
    LOL now listening to someone explain why they were thrown off Love Island as seeing your post I instantly tuned into R5.

    Edit: sounds like it was for use of the C word.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    I am off the clock. I have a couple of hours before I have to catch my train. I have M&S Sapphire raspberries, melon and grapes and a cherry Pepsi Max. Life is good. Let's see what PB was discussing today..

    Pause.

    Oh, we are so, so fucked...

    :(

    LOL. Those Sapphire raspberries are amazing.
    David, you should be doing a Diane Abbott and having a mojito
    I'll have you know I am working seriously hard here Malcolm. Reading PB, watching the cricket, its just frantic.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
    My postal vote was rejected at the GE in Richmond in 2017 when Sarah Olney lost to Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes. I had accidentally put my wife's year of birth (1944) instead of my own (1943).
    My wife's was rejected at last election based on signature, strange.
    Do you get notified if your postal vote is rejected. I've had a postal vote for years and never heard anything...
    Yes they wrote and said it was rejected due to signature not matching and told she would need to reapply.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    malcolmg said:

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    Revoke! She made the mess by triggering A50. She can smooth the way for the next PM.
    why a 3 year old tweet, or am I missing something
    Sorry, I had not noticed it was 3 years old!

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cambridgeshire police investigating five further allegations relating to the Peterborough by-election - three relating to postal votes and one each relating to bribery and privacy :

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48665324

    Crikey.

    "Postal votes accounted for 9,898 of the 33,998 ballot papers received.

    Four hundred of the postal votes returned were rejected due to either the signature or date of birth - or both - not matching council records."
    Shocking! Time to go back to old postal vote rules
    My postal vote was rejected at the GE in Richmond in 2017 when Sarah Olney lost to Zac Goldsmith by 45 votes. I had accidentally put my wife's year of birth (1944) instead of my own (1943).
    My wife's was rejected at last election based on signature, strange.
    Do you get notified if your postal vote is rejected. I've had a postal vote for years and never heard anything...
    Yes they wrote and said it was rejected due to signature not matching and told she would need to reapply.
    Just as well you don't live in NE Fife, eh?
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    "I endorse Rory Stewart"
    It is the empty podium, the new leader of the Conservative Party.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    It’s hard to know what Stewart will get tomorrow .

    Some MPs maybe reluctant to come out publicly for him, is it possible some might vote for him as they want someone in the Tuesday debate who will go for Bozo and the others will be wary of messing up their chances of a cabinet post .

    One things for sure Hancock’s declaration for Johnson is being seen by many as ditching his principles and so obviously as arse licking move to get a cabinet job .

    My hunch is he'll be just around 33 votes, as will Raab. Javid will be slightly less.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    Phukov said:

    Mr. Nabavi, polling has Don't Know beating Corbyn and May comfortably. If enough MPs abstain, no MP will make it to the next round and become leader.

    Don't Know will prove the inescapably brilliant instrument of Conservative victory. Aided by masterly activity and never alienating anyone, the Empty Chair will sweep all before it!

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/745232091550449664
    "I endorse Rory Stewart"
    That would be news, and good news, but I doubt she is decisive enough to admit it even if she thought it.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    The better the press Stewart gets the more MPs will back him. Their eyes are on the GE and want someone who has a chance of winning it. That would be Stewart.

    Of course the membership has no such long term vision.
This discussion has been closed.