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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    Add me to the list of folk who have never watched GoT

    That sort of stuff doesn't appeal to me, and if I wanted to see nakedness there is no shortage of that on line, or so TSE tells me...

    You can read the book(s) and enjoy the traitorous intrigue without the visual stimulation.
    That sounds like the worst of both worlds!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Ironically, Theresa May should have been that leader. Think back to her JAMs speech. Trouble is, while she might have been a good Conservative, she was a lousy politician. We might one day look back and see we left the EU with what looks suspiciously like May's WA, and pay for social care with May's dementia tax, under a different name of course. But Theresa May far better represented the old Tory party in the country than did the Notting Hill trustafarians around Cameron or the economic radicals round Thatcher.
    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.
    Thatcher was more a 19th century Gladstone Liberal than a Disraeli Tory true.

    However on the National Lottery it raises vast sums for good causes and we would not have won the Olympic medals we have without it
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Ironically, Theresa May should have been that leader. Think back to her JAMs speech. Trouble is, while she might have been a good Conservative, she was a lousy politician. We might one day look back and see we left the EU with what looks suspiciously like May's WA, and pay for social care with May's dementia tax, under a different name of course. But Theresa May far better represented the old Tory party in the country than did the Notting Hill trustafarians around Cameron or the economic radicals round Thatcher.
    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.
    There's something Darwinian about the National Lottery.

    Not only does it transfer wealth from the poor to the rich but it also transfers wealth from the stupid to the intelligent and from the unhealthy to the sporty.

    As Thatcher was a believer in Methodist hard work and self improvement then the National Lottery could be justified as a tax on those who don't follow that path.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Sean_F said:

    One thing that tends to get overlooked in discussions about Conservatism is the remarkably unConservative decision to join the EU in the first place. What was that but a truly radical break with the country's traditions, in the name of ideology?

    Yes we shouuld have stayed in EFTA
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    nichomar said:

    felix said:

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Hmmm - I am not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are instinctively conservative. Or maybe they count as university towns?

    There's some extreme social conservatism taking place in Birmingham currently.

    Yep, Esther McVey loves it.

    Indeed - and notably quiet on this issue is the Labour Party leadership - I wonder why that might be..........
    felix said:

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Hmmm - I am not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are instinctively conservative. Or maybe they count as university towns?

    There's some extreme social conservatism taking place in Birmingham currently.

    Yep, Esther McVey loves it.

    Indeed - and notably quiet on this issue is the Labour Party leadership - I wonder why that might be..........
    Wes Streeting to refer fellow Lab MP Godsiff with formal complaint to Labour Party
    Streeting is among several Labour MPs vocal on this and on anti-semitism but when push comes to shove they seem to fall back into line. They remind me of the conservatives at the time of Weimar who thought they could control Hitler...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Ironically, Theresa May should have been that leader. Think back to her JAMs speech. Trouble is, while she might have been a good Conservative, she was a lousy politician. We might one day look back and see we left the EU with what looks suspiciously like May's WA, and pay for social care with May's dementia tax, under a different name of course. But Theresa May far better represented the old Tory party in the country than did the Notting Hill trustafarians around Cameron or the economic radicals round Thatcher.
    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.
    And it takes all that money from the poor and every week creates a new rich person. There is some interesting research awaited on the long run impact on wealth distribution
    And a few of those poor become rich which is why they play it
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there
    So 8.6% (almost a third less) lower than the SCons got in the actual 2017 election? The Boris effect!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624

    So will one of the Tory leadership candidates feel the need to make a false confession in one of the Sunday papers just to stay in the game?

    It would be more interesting if they said they were a drug user NOW rather than in the last millennium.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Hmmm - I am not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are instinctively conservative. Or maybe they count as university towns?

    I'm not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are required to put Boris in place for a couple of Parliaments with healthy majorities either.

    I doubt Johnson will be getting healthy majorities full stop. A politician who claims to want to heal divisions cannot do so without substantial support in the UK’s major cities. But, to be fair, Johnson has no interest in that.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting that on the chart posted on TSE's thread last night it is now Raab emerging as the No Deal Brexit candidate and not Boris. A majority of MPs supporting Raab have never voted for the Withdrawal Agreement or only voted for it once while at least half of MPs backing Boris voted for the Deal all 3 times and a majority at least twice.

    https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1137043826479161344?s=20

    Hunt and Hancock have the strongest Deal support with a majority of their MP supporters voting for the Withdrawal Agreement all three times and the remainder voting for it twice.

    Gyimah has the strongest Remain support though as all his MP supporters voted against the Withdrawal Agreement every time in order to push for EUref2

    Given that the great balance of outstanding voters are “three timers”, it seems highly probable that Raab is out - even if all of the ERGers haven’t declared.

    One assumes that Raab’s votes will transfer to Boris rather than Gove or Hunt.

    Then, the membership - not least the tens of thousands of Brexity entryists - will see Boris through to the leadership.

    Barring “events”, he’s a shoo-in.
    If May had done the honourable thing and resigned when she should have those entryists wouldn't be eligible to vote. She's been a failure many times over in many different ways. Easily the worst post war PM, worse than Brown who was the grandfather of much of this with his financial crash.
    I think, as in the Labour contest this talk of entryism is for the large part absolubte gash. The memberships always wanted Boris and they always wanted Corbyn, certainly for Labour's part more than their MPs ever knew.
    I think the membership's default vote is for Boris, yes, but the same members were ready to make David Davis leader in 2005. The longer term members I know are open to voting for any candidate who will definitely leave the EU, I expect the entryists would only vote for Boris or Raab regardless of the merits of the other candidate.
    I don't think anyone can repeat Cameron's trick of pretending to be a eurosceptic this time round.
    Boris can, unless he's had a genuine conversion like Trump. The Spartans in the Tory ranks are beginning to think he might just have done so.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there

    Good luck with that!

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Tim's right, but not for the reason he thinks.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Scott_P said:
    That’s odd. We must be in a different universe to the one where Thatcher became Conservative leader. Where is the Heathite hegemony?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there

    Good luck with that!

    No need for luck, that is what the polls show.

    Remember the Brexit Party was second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections and Boris would get many of those voters back
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    The Tories were 4th in Scotland in the European Parliament elections on just 12%.

    Under Boris Yougov last week had the Tories back to second in Scotland on 20%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2019
    Scottish sub samples. The last refuge of the rogue.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019

    Add me to the list of folk who have never watched GoT

    That sort of stuff doesn't appeal to me, and if I wanted to see nakedness there is no shortage of that on line, or so TSE tells me...

    I find this "nakedness" claim bizarre. I am not saying no one ever gets their tits out, but it would be thin pickings if you watched it for that reason. Apart from anything Winter is Coming, and women tend to be swathed in fur. The fantasy woo elements of the show are its worst point - Daenerys mother of dragons bloody had it coming - but 80% of it is straightforward medieval warfare and intrigue, and absolutely cracking.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Vicious comments on May's legacy. Notable condemnation of her willingness to make life miserable for random people. I agree. Brexit was never going to fly. But if you can't make life better for people, at least do them no harm.

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1136942111524306945
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.

    I don't think that's quite right. The National Lottery was introduced by John Major's government after a manifesto commitment in 1992.

    http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1992/1992-conservative-manifesto.shtml
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Alistair said:

    Scottish sub samples. The last refuge of the rogue.

    Tories losing 8.6% in Scotland hardly sounds like a solid base though !
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    @david_herdson Very good article, David, thank you - but then, I've never watched GoT either.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Tabman said:

    I'm holding out for a Tory contender who admits to having done Ketamine.

    In a brothel.

    I'm sure SeanT would be able to suggest someone that fits the bill. Such a shame he's no longer around.
    That's very sad to hear
    why did he leave
    Morning Macl. :D

    I was told Sean has gone all Hollywood on us and was worried about all the bullshit he's posted on here over the past decade coming out so got Smithson The Younger to delete his posting history. ;)
    Morning Gin, so he was making too much money and scared it would dry up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
    Indeed and sometimes people forget 38% of Scots voted Leave, more than have ever voted for Ruth Davidson's Tories even in 2017. Without Scottish Leave voters as the European elections proved the Scottish Tories are back to barely more than 10%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Hmmm - I am not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are instinctively conservative. Or maybe they count as university towns?

    I'm not sure places like Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Bristol, Leeds, Brighton, Norwich and Birmingham are required to put Boris in place for a couple of Parliaments with healthy majorities either.

    I doubt Johnson will be getting healthy majorities full stop. A politician who claims to want to heal divisions cannot do so without substantial support in the UK’s major cities. But, to be fair, Johnson has no interest in that.

    Diehard Remainers who want to overturn the EU referendum result and ignore our Leave voting market towns and rural areas certainly do not want to try and heal divisions
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
    Indeed and sometimes people forget 38% of Scots voted Leave, more than have ever voted for Ruth Davidson's Tories even in 2017. Without Scottish Leave voters as the European elections proved the Scottish Tories are back to barely more than 10%
    Weren't you bigging up The Brexit Party before Peterborough? Is your new position that they'll melt away?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited June 2019
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    Not at all it was sheer luck. Lib Dems vanquished and Labour destroying themselves gave them a temporary boost. Her single policy , "No referendum" is a busted flush now and she is invisible and circling the drain.

    PS: they are also rans in Scotland , miles and miles behind and no hope of ever being in charge, hardly success.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    Key thing to know is every Scot is a nationalist. Our arguments are about what's best for Scotland: independence or close alliance with England, with Ruth Davidson being an articulate proponent of the Union. Her position falls away up against aggressive English nationalism. I suspect she knows it and will move onto other more rewarding things than politics.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there
    LOL :blush:
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
    Indeed and sometimes people forget 38% of Scots voted Leave, more than have ever voted for Ruth Davidson's Tories even in 2017. Without Scottish Leave voters as the European elections proved the Scottish Tories are back to barely more than 10%
    The correct decision for the Scottish Tories & the Welsh Tories is to be completely separate parties, independent parties of the English Tories (like CDU/CSU).

    It is possible that the election of Boris may precipitate that in Scotland.

    There is a centre right in both countries, and independent Tory parties would enable them to tap into the right-of-centre Nationalist-inclined vote more easily. (This is quite a substantial constituency in rural North Wales).

    It would also put Labour in a fix in Wales.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
    Indeed and sometimes people forget 38% of Scots voted Leave, more than have ever voted for Ruth Davidson's Tories even in 2017. Without Scottish Leave voters as the European elections proved the Scottish Tories are back to barely more than 10%
    Weren't you bigging up The Brexit Party before Peterborough? Is your new position that they'll melt away?
    Well the Brexit Party were still only a few hundred votes from winning Peterbrough.

    The Brexit Party will certainly not melt away if Gove or Hunt succeeds May, indeed the Yougov polling suggests the Brexit Party would remain over 20% against a Gove or Hunt led Tory Party.

    Boris or Raab cut them back though, Yougov had the Brexit Party falling back to 13% against a Boris led Tories ie UKIP 2015 levels
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    A Boris led Tory Party would be on 20% in Scotland at the next general election with Yougov, higher than they got at every general election from 1997 until 2017 there

    Good luck with that!

    No need for luck, that is what the polls show.

    Remember the Brexit Party was second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections and Boris would get many of those voters back
    Dreamer, ex Labour voters will not ever go Tory
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    FF43 said:

    Vicious comments on May's legacy. Notable condemnation of her willingness to make life miserable for random people. I agree. Brexit was never going to fly. But if you can't make life better for people, at least do them no harm.

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1136942111524306945

    Just not up to it, as Attlee put it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    FF43 said:

    Vicious comments on May's legacy. Notable condemnation of her willingness to make life miserable for random people. I agree. Brexit was never going to fly. But if you can't make life better for people, at least do them no harm.

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1136942111524306945

    If May really wanted to divide the country she would have gone straight to No Deal or revoke or EUref2
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    HYUFD said:



    Agreed, it looks like Boris v Gove or Hunt to the membership and Boris wins.

    Raab as you say will get to the last 4 on a No Deal ticket but no further, be knocked out and then most of his backers transfer to Boris so Boris then likely comes top with MPs and it is between Gove and Hunt as to who faces Boris in the runoff

    Looks like it. There will be some big pushes on Monday which may shift things around a bit, and I assume that there will be a serious attempt to highlight Boris's weaknesses at some point, but it's hard to see the basic dynamic changing.

    That said, whoever gets into the last 2 should shorten to 5 at least. Gove at 12.5 may be a good trading bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Based on OGH's view that leadership rates are super important. These numbers of Jezza should mean he gets nowhere near Downing Street:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1136893306539929601

    That must be close to his lowest ever score. And yes it is very significant.
    Totally agree.

    And if you think that’s bad, just take a look at Richard Leonard’s ratings in Scotland.

    All recent Conservative (London) leaders have had appalling approval ratings in Scotland, but I strongly suspect that Boris or Gove would break all the records.
    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.
    It's over. Boris becoming leader ends the Ruth Davidson Project.
    Not sure about that - there will always be a need for a party of the centre right in all countries and Scotland is no exception to it.
    Indeed and sometimes people forget 38% of Scots voted Leave, more than have ever voted for Ruth Davidson's Tories even in 2017. Without Scottish Leave voters as the European elections proved the Scottish Tories are back to barely more than 10%
    The correct decision for the Scottish Tories & the Welsh Tories is to be completely separate parties, independent parties of the English Tories (like CDU/CSU).

    It is possible that the election of Boris may precipitate that in Scotland.

    There is a centre right in both countries, and independent Tory parties would enable them to tap into the right-of-centre Nationalist-inclined vote more easily. (This is quite a substantial constituency in rural North Wales).

    It would also put Labour in a fix in Wales.
    I actually agree with you there, I would have no problem with a Scottish or Welsh CSU style party as a sister of English Tories and I suspect Boris would not either. However Davidson is not there yet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:



    Agreed, it looks like Boris v Gove or Hunt to the membership and Boris wins.

    Raab as you say will get to the last 4 on a No Deal ticket but no further, be knocked out and then most of his backers transfer to Boris so Boris then likely comes top with MPs and it is between Gove and Hunt as to who faces Boris in the runoff

    Looks like it. There will be some big pushes on Monday which may shift things around a bit, and I assume that there will be a serious attempt to highlight Boris's weaknesses at some point, but it's hard to see the basic dynamic changing.

    That said, whoever gets into the last 2 should shorten to 5 at least. Gove at 12.5 may be a good trading bet.
    Gove also polls slightly better with Tory members v Boris than Hunt does so yes there may be value there
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Vicious comments on May's legacy. Notable condemnation of her willingness to make life miserable for random people. I agree. Brexit was never going to fly. But if you can't make life better for people, at least do them no harm.

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1136942111524306945

    Just not up to it, as Attlee put it.
    The role of PM is utterly unforgiving. Boris has shown he is not up to being a Cabinet minister, so seems highly unlikely he will be able to cope with being PM.

    We shall shortly find out, that's if he doesn't get confidence voted before he even gets to the Palace.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Vicious comments on May's legacy. Notable condemnation of her willingness to make life miserable for random people. I agree. Brexit was never going to fly. But if you can't make life better for people, at least do them no harm.

    https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1136942111524306945

    Just not up to it, as Attlee put it.
    The role of PM is utterly unforgiving. Boris has shown he is not up to being a Cabinet minister, so seems highly unlikely he will be able to cope with being PM.

    We shall shortly find out, that's if he doesn't get confidence voted before he even gets to the Palace.
    Boris was Mayor of London for 8 years, a city of 8 million people and bigger then some countries and has showed he can hold an executive role and get re elected.

    Boris resigned from the Cabinet because of the temporary Customs Union. As I said before Boris could dump the Customs Union from the future relationship and screw the DUP if he loses a VONC and just keep the backstop for Northern Ireland until a new technical solution is found given most voters do not want a hard border while at the same time ensuring that if the Withdrawal Agreement passes GB leaves the single market and Customs Union. Boris could win a majority at a general election on that
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Yorkcity said:

    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.

    I have some money in it but not enough to be a big issue , only about £10K
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    A seperate Scottish Unionist party was Murdo Fraser's idea at the SCon leadership election.

    Davidson shat all over that to win the leadership, that was basically her pitch.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.

    I have some money in it but not enough to be a big issue , only about £10K
    Could be a bigger issue if other similar funds also have liquidity issues. I see Hargreaves are starting to fret about some of their multi funds (ones that invest in other funds like Woodfords).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The role of PM is utterly unforgiving. Boris has shown he is not up to being a Cabinet minister, so seems highly unlikely he will be able to cope with being PM.

    We shall shortly find out, that's if he doesn't get confidence voted before he even gets to the Palace.

    That is the main thrust of the Matthew Parris article in The Times today
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    Boris resigned from the Cabinet because of the temporary Customs Union.

    He resigned from the cabinet because David Davis resigned from the cabinet and he wanted to avoid being outmanoeuvred.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Ironically, Theresa May should have been that leader. Think back to her JAMs speech. Trouble is, while she might have been a good Conservative, she was a lousy politician. We might one day look back and see we left the EU with what looks suspiciously like May's WA, and pay for social care with May's dementia tax, under a different name of course. But Theresa May far better represented the old Tory party in the country than did the Notting Hill trustafarians around Cameron or the economic radicals round Thatcher.
    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.
    Was it not Major who introduced it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Scott_P said:

    The role of PM is utterly unforgiving. Boris has shown he is not up to being a Cabinet minister, so seems highly unlikely he will be able to cope with being PM.

    We shall shortly find out, that's if he doesn't get confidence voted before he even gets to the Palace.

    That is the main thrust of the Matthew Parris article in The Times today
    On the Chatterati's track record in recent years, PM Boris is going to massively surprise on the upside.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Boris now getting support from all wings of the party and almost as many former Remain MPs backing him as former Leave MPs, Chloe Smith from the Cameroon former Remainer wing and Owen Paterson from the No Deal, hard Brexit wing, as well as former May ally and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

    Hancock and Hunt now the clear candidates of the Remain wing and Raab the clear candidate of the Leave wing of the party based on the percentage of their MP support
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    On the Chatterati's track record in recent years, PM Boris is going to massively surprise on the upside.

    Yeah, no...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Alistair said:

    A seperate Scottish Unionist party was Murdo Fraser's idea at the SCon leadership election.

    Davidson shat all over that to win the leadership, that was basically her pitch.

    A good politician knows how to get round that.

    You simply say, "Circumstances have changed".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited June 2019
    I am interested in Penny Mordaunt's decision. I hope she sits this out and then in a great place to be the next leader.

    Also if she backs Boris that would be a big moment
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    I’ve not watched Game Of Thrones either, but I don’t watch much TV anyway. I could write a long list of acclaimed TV shows I’ve not seen.

    I’m thinking I might make the effort to look at Chernobyl.

    Worth it, though the universal acclaim is encouraging my own snobbery to make me doubt myself. Oddly the one Chernobyl obsessive I know hasn't watched it because he refuses to take Sky due to the Murdoch connection.
    Tell them it is ok now, old Rupe no longer owns Sky.

    Or would they prefer this.

    Russia makes own version of Chernobyl disaster series, blaming CIA agent for nuclear explosion following success of Sky Original mini-series

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/furious-russia-makes-own-version-of-chernobyl-disaster-blaming-cia-agent-for-nuclear-disaster-a4161766.html
    LOL that’s hilarious.

    Meanwhile, according to my Russian-speaking wife, there are a load of pirate sites showing the Sky/HBO version complete with Russian dubbing and subtitles, all done within a day of the original English broadcast. There’s a little cottage industry, probably of technology, language and drama students, who are uploading most Western series in Russian within a day or two.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Boris now getting support from all wings of the party, Chloe Smith from the Cameroon former Remainer wing and Owen Paterson from the No Deal, hard Brexit wing, as well as former May ally and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

    Hancock now the clear candidate of the Remain wing and Raab the clear candidate of the Leave wing of the party based on the percentage of their MP support

    It was reported the other day that Gavin Williamson was making the pitch to Tory MPs, "BoZo is going to win, why not back the winning side?", and it appeared to be working
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.

    I have some money in it but not enough to be a big issue , only about £10K
    Could be a bigger issue if other similar funds also have liquidity issues. I see Hargreaves are starting to fret about some of their multi funds (ones that invest in other funds like Woodfords).
    Yes some of them are a bit incestuous. I have a big spread of different types so hopefully will not become a big issue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris now getting support from all wings of the party, Chloe Smith from the Cameroon former Remainer wing and Owen Paterson from the No Deal, hard Brexit wing, as well as former May ally and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

    Hancock now the clear candidate of the Remain wing and Raab the clear candidate of the Leave wing of the party based on the percentage of their MP support

    It was reported the other day that Gavin Williamson was making the pitch to Tory MPs, "BoZo is going to win, why not back the winning side?", and it appeared to be working
    Often does.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617


    I am interested in Penny Mordaunt's decision. I hope she sits this out and then in a great place to be the next leader.

    Also if she backs Boris that would be a big moment
    Backing Boris in return for keeping the Defence Sec. job would be a smart move by Penny. If only to keep Boris-backing Gavin Williamson from having another go.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.

    I have some money in it but not enough to be a big issue , only about £10K
    Could be a bigger issue if other similar funds also have liquidity issues. I see Hargreaves are starting to fret about some of their multi funds (ones that invest in other funds like Woodfords).
    Yes some of them are a bit incestuous. I have a big spread of different types so hopefully will not become a big issue.
    Sounds like Woodford has exposed a problem with these funds investing in stuff that is not quick and easy to liquidate.

    Regulation will be tightened I suspect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good morning. Recent endorsements: Owen Paterson and Michael Fallon for Boris Johnson.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065



    The correct decision for the Scottish Tories & the Welsh Tories is to be completely separate parties, independent parties of the English Tories (like CDU/CSU).

    It is possible that the election of Boris may precipitate that in Scotland.

    There is a centre right in both countries, and independent Tory parties would enable them to tap into the right-of-centre Nationalist-inclined vote more easily. (This is quite a substantial constituency in rural North Wales).

    It would also put Labour in a fix in Wales.

    For this to be effective they would have to move away from the name Conservative and Tory, names which are even bigger vote losers in Wales and Scotland than in England. They would need to be seen as center right parties who are independent from the English Conservatives and be prepared to bargain in a Coalition. I think that is quite a big ask, and they would inevitably lose financial support if they split.

    I do not see the CDU/CSU route as being a good one though. The CSU are considered arrogant by many outside of Bavaria. They pick and choose whether they are one party with the CDU or a separate party within a coalition. They form a separate party when negotiating the coalition contract and demand a place in the top 3 ministries. But they also expect to alternate prospective chancellors with the CDU even though no CSU prospective chancellor has won a Bundestag election.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    malcolmg said:


    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.

    Not at all it was sheer luck. Lib Dems vanquished and Labour destroying themselves gave them a temporary boost. Her single policy , "No referendum" is a busted flush now and she is invisible and circling the drain.

    PS: they are also rans in Scotland , miles and miles behind and no hope of ever being in charge, hardly success.

    At some point people will get tired of the SNP - it's a pretty iron law of politics. Who do you expect to be the beneficiaries? (Genuine question.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    HYUFD said:

    Boris now getting support from all wings of the party and almost as many former Remain MPs backing him as former Leave MPs, Chloe Smith from the Cameroon former Remainer wing and Owen Paterson from the No Deal, hard Brexit wing, as well as former May ally and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

    Hancock and Hunt now the clear candidates of the Remain wing and Raab the clear candidate of the Leave wing of the party based on the percentage of their MP support
    Yep, that looks like the final 4.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Alistair said:

    A seperate Scottish Unionist party was Murdo Fraser's idea at the SCon leadership election.

    Davidson shat all over that to win the leadership, that was basically her pitch.

    A good politician knows how to get round that.

    You simply say, "Circumstances have changed".
    She is a one horse p(h)ony. practiced liar and all round charlatan , she will be sucking up to Boris in short order.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    I am starting to think Gove winning the leadership is a smart bet.

    If he gets to the final 2 there must surely be a chance of Boris self-destructing. Although many consider his mannerisms odd Gove does have a knack of speaking persuasively and convincingly.

    As someone said on the thread last night his ‘confession’ must mean he at least thinks he’s got a chance, to be “clearing decks” early on.

    Note: in many ways Boris is the British Trump and many commentators thought he would implode during the primaries, so it’s far from guaranteed, but it must at least be considered.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Lee Rowley and Ben Bradley have been out with Esther on her Blue Collar Tory tour.
    I expect they're deciding whether to back her or go for Boris at the moment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Corbyn to drop social mobility as Labour goal in favour of opportunity for all
    Party leader says idea has failed and calls instead for social justice commission"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/08/jeremy-corbyn-to-drop-social-mobility-as-labour-goal
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Agreed, it looks like Boris v Gove or Hunt to the membership and Boris wins.

    Raab as you say will get to the last 4 on a No Deal ticket but no further, be knocked out and then most of his backers transfer to Boris so Boris then likely comes top with MPs and it is between Gove and Hunt as to who faces Boris in the runoff

    Looks like it. There will be some big pushes on Monday which may shift things around a bit, and I assume that there will be a serious attempt to highlight Boris's weaknesses at some point, but it's hard to see the basic dynamic changing.

    That said, whoever gets into the last 2 should shorten to 5 at least. Gove at 12.5 may be a good trading bet.
    Gove also polls slightly better with Tory members v Boris than Hunt does so yes there may be value there
    If you think Gove will be in the last two and shorten to 5, what price will Boris be? 1.2, 1.3? That's a hypothetical question but the point is the value might actually be with Boris (and also look at Shadsy's pairs market, I suppose).

    I'm green on both Hunt and Gove so ignoring my book and trying to think about who would make the best prime minister, I'd worry that while Hunt is a better Foreign Secretary than Boris, and a better Health Secretary than Lansley, those are two pretty low bars. The risk with Gove is he is May in trousers. He does not build consensus and can start a fight in a phone box; it is not enough in politics to be right if you cannot persuade others to vote the same way, or even see the need for it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    I don't really agree with Goodwin (I presume Matthew) about England/Britain(?) being a conservative country. What we are witnessing is a vast pace of change across society for all kinds of reasons. That bothers people - but then it bothers those in other countries as well.

    Goodwin is speaking from the perspective of middle class Londoners. If you live in a palace you might think everyone else is poor. Does that mean they are? If you're from the middle east you'll think everywhere else is cold.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    It should be repurposed in perpetuity as [Theresa] May Day as a sort of counterpart to Guy Fawkes night.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Goodwin in Telegraph:

    "One of the peculiarities of Britain is that once you step outside of London and the university towns this remains an instinctively conservative nation. Yet at the same time it has a Conservative Party that is afraid of being conservative."

    "Yet winning back these voters would not be hard. It requires a Conservative Party to do what it says on the tin"

    Ironically, Theresa May should have been that leader. Think back to her JAMs speech. Trouble is, while she might have been a good Conservative, she was a lousy politician. We might one day look back and see we left the EU with what looks suspiciously like May's WA, and pay for social care with May's dementia tax, under a different name of course. But Theresa May far better represented the old Tory party in the country than did the Notting Hill trustafarians around Cameron or the economic radicals round Thatcher.
    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.
    Was it not Major who introduced it?
    Yes in 1994, I remember it was soon after I started my degree.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn to drop social mobility as Labour goal in favour of opportunity for all
    Party leader says idea has failed and calls instead for social justice commission"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/08/jeremy-corbyn-to-drop-social-mobility-as-labour-goal

    Yes as mentioned before he wants to replace social mobility with socialism
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    eristdoof said:



    The correct decision for the Scottish Tories & the Welsh Tories is to be completely separate parties, independent parties of the English Tories (like CDU/CSU).

    It is possible that the election of Boris may precipitate that in Scotland.

    There is a centre right in both countries, and independent Tory parties would enable them to tap into the right-of-centre Nationalist-inclined vote more easily. (This is quite a substantial constituency in rural North Wales).

    It would also put Labour in a fix in Wales.

    For this to be effective they would have to move away from the name Conservative and Tory, names which are even bigger vote losers in Wales and Scotland than in England. They would need to be seen as center right parties who are independent from the English Conservatives and be prepared to bargain in a Coalition. I think that is quite a big ask, and they would inevitably lose financial support if they split.

    I think you are right about the name.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772


    I am interested in Penny Mordaunt's decision. I hope she sits this out and then in a great place to be the next leader.

    Also if she backs Boris that would be a big moment
    Backing Boris in return for keeping the Defence Sec. job would be a smart move by Penny. If only to keep Boris-backing Gavin Williamson from having another go.....
    If she is running, she is leaving it incredibly late.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.

    I don't think that's quite right. The National Lottery was introduced by John Major's government after a manifesto commitment in 1992.

    http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1992/1992-conservative-manifesto.shtml
    Correct, the National Lottery was John Major’s achievement, not Thatcher’s. Launched in 1994.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    It should be repurposed in perpetuity as [Theresa] May Day as a sort of counterpart to Guy Fawkes night.
    No, "David Cameron night" is 23rd June.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Another day, another couple of anti semitism stories and Labour

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7118151/Labour-MP-Rupa-Huq-accused-anti-Semitism-former-employee.html

    Did someone say something about a moral crusade?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:


    I agree about Boris - don't know about Gove. I know you won't agree but Ruth's achievement in leading the Tories to second place in Scotland is truly one of the brightest features of the party's fortunes in decades.

    Not at all it was sheer luck. Lib Dems vanquished and Labour destroying themselves gave them a temporary boost. Her single policy , "No referendum" is a busted flush now and she is invisible and circling the drain.

    PS: they are also rans in Scotland , miles and miles behind and no hope of ever being in charge, hardly success.
    At some point people will get tired of the SNP - it's a pretty iron law of politics. Who do you expect to be the beneficiaries? (Genuine question.)

    At present there is little sign that anyone is tiring of the SNP, the opposition are really dire. My guess if they did it would be to a new independence party fed up waiting for the referendum.
    I cannot imagine the Tories getting beyond a small fixed base and there is no sign that Labour can ever recover , they are just so bad. Only hope for Labour and Tories is to become a Scottish party rather than just message boys for London. Lib Dems are also rans as well. Why Labour did not support independence I will never know, they would have cleaned up afterwards but preferred to destroy themselves instead.
    For me nothing will change till after independence and then the SNP will split.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    I don't really agree with Goodwin (I presume Matthew) about England/Britain(?) being a conservative country. What we are witnessing is a vast pace of change across society for all kinds of reasons. That bothers people - but then it bothers those in other countries as well.

    Goodwin is speaking from the perspective of middle class Londoners. If you live in a palace you might think everyone else is poor. Does that mean they are? If you're from the middle east you'll think everywhere else is cold.

    Blair, Brown and Gould took the view that England was basically a conservative country and so winning for Labour meant not scaring the horses too much.

    Needless to say Jezza wont be taking that approach, although John McD clearly sees the risk.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Corbyn to drop social mobility as Labour goal in favour of opportunity for all
    Party leader says idea has failed and calls instead for social justice commission"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/08/jeremy-corbyn-to-drop-social-mobility-as-labour-goal

    Yes as mentioned before he wants to replace social mobility with socialism
    Ah - everyone other than party members get royally fecked then?

    Good to know.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I am starting to think Gove winning the leadership is a smart bet.

    If he gets to the final 2 there must surely be a chance of Boris self-destructing. Although many consider his mannerisms odd Gove does have a knack of speaking persuasively and convincingly.

    As someone said on the thread last night his ‘confession’ must mean he at least thinks he’s got a chance, to be “clearing decks” early on.

    Note: in many ways Boris is the British Trump and many commentators thought he would implode during the primaries, so it’s far from guaranteed, but it must at least be considered.

    Gove is certainly our Hilary, sneaky lying conniving no user.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    malcolmg said:

    I am starting to think Gove winning the leadership is a smart bet.

    If he gets to the final 2 there must surely be a chance of Boris self-destructing. Although many consider his mannerisms odd Gove does have a knack of speaking persuasively and convincingly.

    As someone said on the thread last night his ‘confession’ must mean he at least thinks he’s got a chance, to be “clearing decks” early on.

    Note: in many ways Boris is the British Trump and many commentators thought he would implode during the primaries, so it’s far from guaranteed, but it must at least be considered.

    Gove is certainly our Hilary, sneaky lying conniving no user.
    Does he have a personal email server as well?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed, Thatcher was the beginning of the end. She was not a conservative, she was a revolutionary.

    There are many examples of her animosity towards conservatism, but funnily enough one of her very late introductions sticks in my mind: the National Lottery. She, quite rightly, resisted the suggestion for a decade, but caved in in the end. The Big State, week in week out fleeces the absolute poorest people in society. It is a National Disgrace and a National Shame. Of course charlatan Blair loved it too.

    A true conservative would abolish the National Lottery, ban the gambling industry from advertising, and protect the vulnerable from one of society’s most persistent evils.

    I don't think that's quite right. The National Lottery was introduced by John Major's government after a manifesto commitment in 1992.

    http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1992/1992-conservative-manifesto.shtml
    Correct, the National Lottery was John Major’s achievement, not Thatcher’s. Launched in 1994.
    I was quite young then but I do remember the first draw and how excited everyone was about having a ticket. Took a while for reality to hit that the odds were minuscule...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    If Corbyn is ditching the term social mobility then for once he has my support. We should be talking about job/career mobility. I don't care whether someone wants to self-identify as 'middle class.'
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    On thread - am I the only one here wot hasn't watched GoT?

    I am vaguely aware that Captain Phasma and Qi'ra from the new Star Wars "films" are also in GoT :)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    I am starting to think Gove winning the leadership is a smart bet.

    If he gets to the final 2 there must surely be a chance of Boris self-destructing. Although many consider his mannerisms odd Gove does have a knack of speaking persuasively and convincingly.

    As someone said on the thread last night his ‘confession’ must mean he at least thinks he’s got a chance, to be “clearing decks” early on.

    Note: in many ways Boris is the British Trump and many commentators thought he would implode during the primaries, so it’s far from guaranteed, but it must at least be considered.

    Gove is certainly our Hilary, sneaky lying conniving no user.
    Scots see right through him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628


    I am interested in Penny Mordaunt's decision. I hope she sits this out and then in a great place to be the next leader.

    Also if she backs Boris that would be a big moment
    She’s definitely a good bet for leader after next, a rare politician unafraid to show a wicked sense of humour. Too young and inexperienced this time though, hopefully she can get a more senior job under the new leader.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019

    On thread - am I the only one here wot hasn't watched GoT?

    I am vaguely aware that Captain Phasma and Qi'ra from the new Star Wars "films" are also in GoT :)

    I haven't. I usually watch TV shows about 20 years after they were famous, which is why I watched the original run of Twin Peaks recently.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    malcolmg said:

    I am starting to think Gove winning the leadership is a smart bet.

    If he gets to the final 2 there must surely be a chance of Boris self-destructing. Although many consider his mannerisms odd Gove does have a knack of speaking persuasively and convincingly.

    As someone said on the thread last night his ‘confession’ must mean he at least thinks he’s got a chance, to be “clearing decks” early on.

    Note: in many ways Boris is the British Trump and many commentators thought he would implode during the primaries, so it’s far from guaranteed, but it must at least be considered.

    Gove is certainly our Hilary, sneaky lying conniving no user.
    Heavy user, actually.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Hope no one has their hard earned money in Neil Woodford's fund.
    Does not look good, that they have suspended been able to take your money out.

    I have some money in it but not enough to be a big issue , only about £10K
    Could be a bigger issue if other similar funds also have liquidity issues. I see Hargreaves are starting to fret about some of their multi funds (ones that invest in other funds like Woodfords).
    Yes some of them are a bit incestuous. I have a big spread of different types so hopefully will not become a big issue.
    Sounds like Woodford has exposed a problem with these funds investing in stuff that is not quick and easy to liquidate.

    Regulation will be tightened I suspect.
    Do any of these “managed” funds regularly beat a major Western index tracker over a decade or more, when their extortionate fees are taken out?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    “John Major is often credited with bringing in the National Lottery, but it was Sir Ivan Lawrence who kickstarted the ball-dropping enterprise.
    He explained the background to his 1991 Private Member's Bill and why Margaret Thatcher was far from keen on the enterprise.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-15027222/national-lottery-sir-ivan-lawrence-on-margaret-thatcher-s-doubts
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:
    I think we're becoming over-obsessed with the second world war. Not healthy.
This discussion has been closed.