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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How the hell has Soubry become the leader of 5 ex Lab MPs ?!

    Have you seen those five ex-Labour MPs?
    Time to change their name again.

    Small Change UK.
    I laughed.
    I surely did.
    :)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    ,

    TGOHF said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom got any sort of launch video out or campaign going at all?

    As far as I can tell she’s just gone on Marr and LBC radio and done ten tweets.

    She's not a serious candidate - just after a cabinet position.
    Someone has invested the best part of half a million shoring up her position as third favourite on Betfair.
    They could just be backing and laying both sides.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Funny how all these Conservatives recruit from the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    isam said:

    ,

    TGOHF said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom got any sort of launch video out or campaign going at all?

    As far as I can tell she’s just gone on Marr and LBC radio and done ten tweets.

    She's not a serious candidate - just after a cabinet position.
    Someone has invested the best part of half a million shoring up her position as third favourite on Betfair.
    They could just be backing and laying both sides.
    Indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Any hope at all there is a Tory MP deciding to go super decret with their campaign, and there'll be a surprise candidate we only find out about the day after the nominations close?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Scott_P said:
    I don't like all this talk about 'very challenging times ahead'. What's he referring to?
    Well the Conservative Party just achieved it's lowest share of the vote in a national election since 1832...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Farage in a meeting with Trump now.

    Hope Nigel remembers to launder his tongue before he comes out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, surely they'd have to declare prior to the close?

    Otherwise, Mordaunt might be going on submarine manoeuvres.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    Why would they need to meet at the same time as Farage, they do what he wants anyway?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Mr. kle4, surely they'd have to declare prior to the close?

    Otherwise, Mordaunt might be going on submarine manoeuvres.

    Yes, but I meant we'd only find out after the close - so long as they submit a form with the required MP support there's no need to publicly announce is there?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:
    Wonder what Donald made of The Quiet Man? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    kle4 said:

    Any hope at all there is a Tory MP deciding to go super decret with their campaign, and there'll be a surprise candidate we only find out about the day after the nominations close?

    Mordaunt looks the likeliest.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    The year of four new parties. Three of which Umunna has been involved with, but only the fourth is successful.
    He’s my biggest winner as next Labour Leader! Still got a chance!! 🤣
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    IanB2 said:

    Malthouse is gone.

    Have they looked behind the sofa? :lol:
    He wouldn’t fit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, ha, that's almost as good as the Elder Scrolls RPG story.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1Jyh9BsNlY
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    kle4 said:

    Any hope at all there is a Tory MP deciding to go super decret with their campaign, and there'll be a surprise candidate we only find out about the day after the nominations close?

    Mordaunt looks the likeliest.
    Feels like anyone who does that now is going to be met with a massive eye roll.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. HYUFD, as others have suggested, could just be a delay so they can't unduly influence the next leader decision, and Cable (justifiably) considering it a decision for his successor.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_P said:
    I wonder why such candidates could jump straight to being PM without any Cabinet or frontbench experience in the first place? Leading Westminster council is not an automatic route to Downing Street
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    I think Allen & Wollaston, and perhaps Chuka, will find their way to the LDs. Berger, Shuker and Smith probably won't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder why such candidates could jump straight to being PM without any Cabinet or frontbench experience in the first place? Leading Westminster council is not an automatic route to Downing Street
    While no one expected it to happen Jeremy Corbyn theoretically could have become PM after not quite 2 years of frontbench experience, most of it very atypical front bench experince because his MPs hated him so much. While it would be unusual there's no requirement for any level of senior experience, so why not go for it? It's all the rage in many countries thesedays to go for complete political novices.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Of the c. 110 Tory MPs left to declare, how many are ERG’ers?

    Trying to work out what the pool in which Leadsom, McVey, Raab, Mourdant and maybe event Patel & Baker could be fishing in is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    I think Allen & Wollaston, and perhaps Chuka, will find their way to the LDs. Berger, Shuker and Smith probably won't.
    It’s possible George Osborne might still fulfil his wish and become PM one day too.

    As leader of the (new) Lib Dems.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    kle4 said:

    Any hope at all there is a Tory MP deciding to go super decret with their campaign, and there'll be a surprise candidate we only find out about the day after the nominations close?

    Mordaunt looks the likeliest.
    Feels like anyone who does that now is going to be met with a massive eye roll.
    Well if she launches with 15 hitherto-undeclared MPs on Thursday it would actually make a splash and capture some momentum. If she launches with 2 backers, not so much.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    Long way to go.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,055
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
    Yes, I have greened up on Boris. Hunt my best outcome financially. Of course Boris has a remarkeable capacity for gaffes so could terminate himself. He will be a crap PM, but some of the alternatives are malignant as well as crap, so could be worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    The Tories are making the same mistake as last time. In their rush to get a leader they will not have the debate or test the candidates or ask themselves the hard questions they need to. So they will end up getting a superficially popular leader who will turn out to be utterly useless, an empty suit who will make a mess of things. May mark 2.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Brexit Party shortening in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/8
    Labour 7/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Con 50/1
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
    Yes, I have greened up on Boris. Hunt my best outcome financially. Of course Boris has a remarkeable capacity for gaffes so could terminate himself. He will be a crap PM, but some of the alternatives are malignant as well as crap, so could be worse.
    Much much worse with Corbyn
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    I think Allen & Wollaston, and perhaps Chuka, will find their way to the LDs. Berger, Shuker and Smith probably won't.
    It’s possible George Osborne might still fulfil his wish and become PM one day too.

    As leader of the (new) Lib Dems.
    He's too toxic for the left of the party, though. That issue also interests me in general should a large number of ex-Tories start to join the party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Mr. HYUFD, as others have suggested, could just be a delay so they can't unduly influence the next leader decision, and Cable (justifiably) considering it a decision for his successor.

    Probably, I suspect a broader Remain alliance will emerge somehow from the LDs, CUK and Chuka's new group
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    kle4 said:

    Any hope at all there is a Tory MP deciding to go super decret with their campaign, and there'll be a surprise candidate we only find out about the day after the nominations close?

    Mordaunt looks the likeliest.
    Feels like anyone who does that now is going to be met with a massive eye roll.
    Well if she launches with 15 hitherto-undeclared MPs on Thursday it would actually make a splash and capture some momentum. If she launches with 2 backers, not so much.
    Who would they be?

    I don’t see any advantage from holding back.

    I’m assuming most of those who haven’t yet declared are waiting to smell which way the wind is blowing or playing hard to get in order to win a career concession (cynical view) or may be genuinely undecided and are waiting to speak to them/hear the hustings (uncynical view).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    I think Allen & Wollaston, and perhaps Chuka, will find their way to the LDs. Berger, Shuker and Smith probably won't.
    It’s possible George Osborne might still fulfil his wish and become PM one day too.

    As leader of the (new) Lib Dems.
    He's too toxic for the left of the party, though. That issue also interests me in general should a large number of ex-Tories start to join the party.
    There could be room for a separate centre-right grouping in British politics too, once the Tories go further right. Highly ironically, I think some former Blairites could feel more at home there than in the Liberal Democrats, too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673

    TGOHF said:

    brendan16 said:



    Also be wary about taking your kids to the local swimming pool - as they will be subject to a bit of chlorine washing!

    The old days of being able to scare people and bend their will seems to be coming to an end.

    I eat chicken in the US all the time - never had food poisoning yet. If only people could see how much water the Dutch pump into chickens...
    and bacon

    Harry has not had food poisoning but he is a 36 DD in a bra.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,055

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
    Yes, I have greened up on Boris. Hunt my best outcome financially. Of course Boris has a remarkeable capacity for gaffes so could terminate himself. He will be a crap PM, but some of the alternatives are malignant as well as crap, so could be worse.
    Much much worse with Corbyn
    I don't think so, but I shallbe campaigning against both.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    isam said:

    ,

    TGOHF said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom got any sort of launch video out or campaign going at all?

    As far as I can tell she’s just gone on Marr and LBC radio and done ten tweets.

    She's not a serious candidate - just after a cabinet position.
    Someone has invested the best part of half a million shoring up her position as third favourite on Betfair.
    They could just be backing and laying both sides.
    Surely there is a calculation of the gross size of positions for a candidate?

    So, if someone is on 10-1 and there is £1,000 matched (we'll call that Kit), that's different from someone on 10-1 with £100,000 matched (we'll call her Andrea). In the first case, it suggests that most buyers sellers find the price uninteresting.

    In the second case, it suggests there is an enormous disagreement. Lots of people find 10-1 too short, and lots find it too long. Or in this case, that there is one person who is moving the market.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder why such candidates could jump straight to being PM without any Cabinet or frontbench experience in the first place? Leading Westminster council is not an automatic route to Downing Street
    While no one expected it to happen Jeremy Corbyn theoretically could have become PM after not quite 2 years of frontbench experience, most of it very atypical front bench experince because his MPs hated him so much. While it would be unusual there's no requirement for any level of senior experience, so why not go for it? It's all the rage in many countries thesedays to go for complete political novices.
    Corbyn at least will have led a political party and been Leader of the Opposition for 4 years if he wins a general election.

    Even Macron was French Finance Minister under Hollande. Trump was a billionaire and already had a high enough public profile to run for President unlike Malthouse who is barely known even amongst us politics obsessives
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    nico67 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Farage in a meeting with Trump now.

    Vote Farage to help deliver the NHS on a plate to Trump .

    Opposition parties need to tie them together and go with that message .
    That is precisely why I can't get excited about the prospects of the Brexit Party. Once people start looking beyond the single issue most voters are not going to like what they see. Within days we've already had Widdicombe upsetting people. If, god forbid, we ever were landed with a Farage government it would collapse in a dysfunctional heap within months much as UKIP did.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Farage in a meeting with Trump now.

    Vote Farage to help deliver the NHS on a plate to Trump .

    Opposition parties need to tie them together and go with that message .
    That is precisely why I can't get excited about the prospects of the Brexit Party. Once people start looking beyond the single issue most voters are not going to like what they see. Within days we've already had Widdicombe upsetting people. If, god forbid, we ever were landed with a Farage government it would collapse in a dysfunctional heap within months much as UKIP did.
    The Brexit Party contains everyone from ex Communists like Claire Fox to libertarians like Farage and arch social conservatives like Widdecombe, once it delivered Brexit of course it would break up but that was its main purpose in the first place
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited June 2019

    Not in the Leavers' worst nightmares would the first tangible consequence of Brexit be about selling the NHS to Donald Trump in return for the privilege of importing chlorinated chicken. But that's what's happened.

    No it really isn't. Its another burgeoning Remainer scare story. In the end there is no appetite either in Parliament or in the country for such a deal so it won't happen.

    Good propaganda of course but no foundation in reality.

    Good propaganda with no foundation in reality didn't do the leave campaign any harm!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    The Tories are making the same mistake as last time. In their rush to get a leader they will not have the debate or test the candidates or ask themselves the hard questions they need to. So they will end up getting a superficially popular leader who will turn out to be utterly useless, an empty suit who will make a mess of things. May mark 2.
    Indeed. What are they afraid of? The fear it might emerge that many senior Conservatives disagree with each other on some fundamental issues? We know that already.
    The choice of a new PM is worthy of long, considered debate.
    Many mainstream Tories simply don't want to hear unpleasant truths, which challenge their long-held world views. They'd rather a series of fantasy promises and business as usual.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Quick and dirty: there are about 29-33 hard ERG’ers yet to declare.

    Presume they’ll pile in at some point and that’s the pool McVey, Baker, and Patel are all flirting with. Possibly what Mordaunt is fishing in too, and maybe Leadsom is holding something back there too (though I doubt it).

    I expect they’ll split across Boris/Raab in the end.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Is today the silliest day in British politics?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not a good day for Leavers .

    And certainly not for the no deal Tory nutjobs . If there’s one issue that unites the public it’s the NHS.

    A no deal Brexit puts the UK in a weak position desperate for a deal . Brexit puts the UK at the mercy of the USA.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    Nothing says "PM material " quite like helping set up a new Party, then leaving it as a complete balls-up 4 months later.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Quick and dirty: there are about 29-33 hard ERG’ers yet to declare.

    Presume they’ll pile in at some point and that’s the pool McVey, Baker, and Patel are all flirting with. Possibly what Mordaunt is fishing in too, and maybe Leadsom is holding something back there too (though I doubt it).

    I expect they’ll split across Boris/Raab in the end.

    Leadsom/Mordaunt split would be err .... "interesting"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
    Yes, I have greened up on Boris. Hunt my best outcome financially. Of course Boris has a remarkeable capacity for gaffes so could terminate himself. He will be a crap PM, but some of the alternatives are malignant as well as crap, so could be worse.
    Much much worse with Corbyn
    I don't think so, but I shallbe campaigning against both.
    Good to hear it Dr Foxy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    Tories being willing to put "the NHS on the table" in order to get a trade deal with Trump is going to be toxic. Could well make me a Remain convert.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Jonathan said:

    Is today the silliest day in British politics?

    Been some formidable competition recently. And probably more to come.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    It does seem very improbable that Boris cannot get to the final two, which might be the only way to stop him. We all best prepare ourselves.
    Yes, I have greened up on Boris. Hunt my best outcome financially. Of course Boris has a remarkeable capacity for gaffes so could terminate himself. He will be a crap PM, but some of the alternatives are malignant as well as crap, so could be worse.
    Much much worse with Corbyn
    I don't think so, but I shallbe campaigning against both.
    Good to hear it Dr Foxy.
    They've all said it won't be. Anyway the leave vote has been taken ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019
    nico67 said:

    Not a good day for Leavers .

    And certainly not for the no deal Tory nutjobs . If there’s one issue that unites the public it’s the NHS.

    A no deal Brexit puts the UK in a weak position desperate for a deal . Brexit puts the UK at the mercy of the USA.

    As Speaker Pelosi has said Congress will not approve a US-UK FTA without the backstop anyway so in reality there will be no US FTA if the Withdrawal Agreement does not pass anytime soon
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
    +1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,055
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: Farage in a meeting with Trump now.

    Vote Farage to help deliver the NHS on a plate to Trump .

    Opposition parties need to tie them together and go with that message .
    That is precisely why I can't get excited about the prospects of the Brexit Party. Once people start looking beyond the single issue most voters are not going to like what they see. Within days we've already had Widdicombe upsetting people. If, god forbid, we ever were landed with a Farage government it would collapse in a dysfunctional heap within months much as UKIP did.
    The Brexit Party contains everyone from ex Communists like Claire Fox to libertarians like Farage and arch social conservatives like Widdecombe, once it delivered Brexit of course it would break up but that was its main purpose in the first place
    Claire Fox and other pro Russian former RCP members do have a curious presence in the BXP. A bit of entryism methinks, but now pro Putin rather than pro Soviet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Tories being willing to put "the NHS on the table" in order to get a trade deal with Trump is going to be toxic. Could well make me a Remain convert.

    Which Tories are those? Certainly not the Health Secretary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
    OK clever cloggs, who is this Remainer Messiah other than Umunna then?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Tory MPs really are convinced their problems will be solved by the announcement of a new leader, aren't they?
    Otherwise, why the hurry? And, if speed was of the essence, why the flippetty flip is May allowed two weeks to pre-announce her departure?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    Nothing says "PM material " quite like helping set up a new Party, then leaving it as a complete balls-up 4 months later.
    Umunna never led it and if something is not working move on
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    Not in the Leavers' worst nightmares would the first tangible consequence of Brexit be about selling the NHS to Donald Trump in return for the privilege of importing chlorinated chicken. But that's what's happened.

    No it really isn't. Its another burgeoning Remainer scare story. In the end there is no appetite either in Parliament or in the country for such a deal so it won't happen.

    Good propaganda of course but no foundation in reality.
    Leavers dont want a deal with America?

    Only way they get one is to agree to put Chlorinated chicken on the table with the NHS according to Trump
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
    OK clever cloggs, who is this Remainer Messiah other than Umunna then?
    He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy ....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,911

    Tories being willing to put "the NHS on the table" in order to get a trade deal with Trump is going to be toxic. Could well make me a Remain convert.

    Remainers don't care about the NHS!

    "Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"

    How's that for the side of a bus?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Rory has nine days to find at least a double figure number of extra MPs to back him, or he’s out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Hate to say this as a Goviac but this looks to be going one way and one way only.

    Johnson should be odds on now. It's more likely than not that he gets it.

    Time to lump on at anything materially above evens.

    The Tories are making the same mistake as last time. In their rush to get a leader they will not have the debate or test the candidates or ask themselves the hard questions they need to. So they will end up getting a superficially popular leader who will turn out to be utterly useless, an empty suit who will make a mess of things. May mark 2.
    A superficially popular leader who should have been in hindsight elected three years ago. The Tory face of the Leave campaign.

    He needs to be PM. It is time for put up or shut up from the Leavers and as their referendum leader it is time for him to be PM and to go for broke at implementing what was voted for without excuses.

    If you want to hold Leavers accountable, make them accountable.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Tories being willing to put "the NHS on the table" in order to get a trade deal with Trump is going to be toxic. Could well make me a Remain convert.

    Remainers don't care about the NHS!

    "Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"

    How's that for the side of a bus?
    It wouldn't work.

    Replacing the NHS with American Healthcare is the scare story of all scare stories. And the NHS have already been given that £350m a week so the money going to the EU rather than the NHS argument can be batted away.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,451
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not a good day for Leavers .

    And certainly not for the no deal Tory nutjobs . If there’s one issue that unites the public it’s the NHS.

    A no deal Brexit puts the UK in a weak position desperate for a deal . Brexit puts the UK at the mercy of the USA.

    As Speaker Pelosi has said Congress will not approve a US-UK FTA without the backstop anyway so in reality there will be no US FTA if the Withdrawal Agreement does not pass anytime soon
    Since when has reality mattered to leave politics? It is all about emotion.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Rory has nine days to find at least a double figure number of extra MPs to back him, or he’s out.

    With a better job in the next cabinet and the ability to position him better next time around now he's known.

    I suspect he will be one of the few to do well out of this campaign...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    eek said:

    Rory has nine days to find at least a double figure number of extra MPs to back him, or he’s out.

    With a better job in the next cabinet and the ability to position him better next time around now he's known.

    I suspect he will be one of the few to do well out of this campaign...
    I like him and even the Lefty love in doesn’t put me off.

    He’s a pragmatic Tory through and through.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    Tories being willing to put "the NHS on the table" in order to get a trade deal with Trump is going to be toxic. Could well make me a Remain convert.

    Remainers don't care about the NHS!

    "Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"

    How's that for the side of a bus?
    Because the subject is so trivial that we can afford to reduce it to a sound bite instead of trying to work out the effects and judge which of them would be best?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    Not in the Leavers' worst nightmares would the first tangible consequence of Brexit be about selling the NHS to Donald Trump in return for the privilege of importing chlorinated chicken. But that's what's happened.

    No it really isn't. Its another burgeoning Remainer scare story. In the end there is no appetite either in Parliament or in the country for such a deal so it won't happen.

    Good propaganda of course but no foundation in reality.
    Leavers dont want a deal with America?

    Only way they get one is to agree to put Chlorinated chicken on the table with the NHS according to Trump
    Serious question for anyone more knowledgeable than me.

    And I say this fully believing that healthcare should be free at the point of source, paid for through taxes.

    In what way would Trump be demanding we open up the NHS? Surely the situation as it stands is, we have the NHS paid for through taxes, but there is also competition in the form of private healthcare. So what does Trump want to change?

    I have private healthcare but I don't feel as if it competes with the NHS. I still pay taxes and the NHS still gets funded.

    How would he actually destroy the NHS? How could a trade deal negotiated with a foreign country change how our NHS is funded? Am I missing something? Surely the market is already open to private providers - it's just competing against a state owned service?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    Thanks.

    Provided they don’t get high on their beards and sandals and push for the Euro (they’ll lose support again) or sex education for toddlers they’ve got a good strategic position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Not a good day for Leavers .

    And certainly not for the no deal Tory nutjobs . If there’s one issue that unites the public it’s the NHS.

    A no deal Brexit puts the UK in a weak position desperate for a deal . Brexit puts the UK at the mercy of the USA.

    As Speaker Pelosi has said Congress will not approve a US-UK FTA without the backstop anyway so in reality there will be no US FTA if the Withdrawal Agreement does not pass anytime soon
    Since when has reality mattered to leave politics? It is all about emotion.
    Maybe but it makes Remainers whinges about the NHS irrelevant until the Withdrawal Agreement is approved, if we go to No Deal there will be no US FTA
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
    OK clever cloggs, who is this Remainer Messiah other than Umunna then?
    I never said I thought there was one.

    But, if there were, Jess Philips, Jo Swinson, Emily Thornberry, and Dominic Grieve are all people I’d rate ahead of him.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    Yep. I'm an actually conservative Conservative (as in, y'know, not wanting things to change too much), and whereas Labour, the Tories, and BXP all want to shake the existing socio-economic settlement to its foundations, the Lib Dems seem much more gradualist, cuddly, and, dare I say it, conservative.

    Easy to see where my vote's going next time if this horror show continues.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    The safe option LDs want to give up Trident and nuclear weapons in general.

    Whats safe about that?
    Lab policy is to retain a nuclear deterrent Tories to upgrade it LDs scrap it
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    Not in the Leavers' worst nightmares would the first tangible consequence of Brexit be about selling the NHS to Donald Trump in return for the privilege of importing chlorinated chicken. But that's what's happened.

    No it really isn't. Its another burgeoning Remainer scare story. In the end there is no appetite either in Parliament or in the country for such a deal so it won't happen.

    Good propaganda of course but no foundation in reality.
    Leavers dont want a deal with America?

    Only way they get one is to agree to put Chlorinated chicken on the table with the NHS according to Trump
    Serious question for anyone more knowledgeable than me.

    And I say this fully believing that healthcare should be free at the point of source, paid for through taxes.

    In what way would Trump be demanding we open up the NHS? Surely the situation as it stands is, we have the NHS paid for through taxes, but there is also competition in the form of private healthcare. So what does Trump want to change?

    I have private healthcare but I don't feel as if it competes with the NHS. I still pay taxes and the NHS still gets funded.

    How would he actually destroy the NHS? How could a trade deal negotiated with a foreign country change how our NHS is funded? Am I missing something? Surely the market is already open to private providers - it's just competing against a state owned service?
    My daughter works in the health care sectors, she’s a well qualified mental health therapist, she had worked for the NHS for quite a few years but woke up to find she had been outsourced. As it happens the group who won the contract were a non for profit team and she is comfortable. The alternatives were virgin health and others, I’m afraid the privatization of the NHS is happening without people even realizing it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    The safe option LDs want to give up Trident and nuclear weapons in general.

    Whats safe about that?
    Lab policy is to retain a nuclear deterrent Tories to upgrade it LDs scrap it
    Wrong not lib dem policy
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Scott_P said:
    A major feather in Tessa’s cap, agreed.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder why such candidates could jump straight to being PM without any Cabinet or frontbench experience in the first place? Leading Westminster council is not an automatic route to Downing Street
    Had anyone noticed that this complete nobody had entered in the first place?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    The safe option LDs want to give up Trident and nuclear weapons in general.

    Whats safe about that?
    Lab policy is to retain a nuclear deterrent Tories to upgrade it LDs scrap it
    Labour will retain a nuclear deterrent? Are you even aware of who your candidate for PM is?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Any word from Boris Johnson yet on whether the NHS is going to be "on the table"?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Is anyone else finding the Tory leadership contest intensely dull? Who cares which of the assortment of clowns, bigots, dullards and bag-carriers wins?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the defecting CUK M0s are staying on as independents rather than defecting to the LDs, though I think there is a chance Chuka Umunna could head a future broad Remain/pro single market Alliance

    Chuka couldn’t head up a travel agency.
    Say what you think but Chuka is the only one of the senior Remainers I can see becoming PM, kind of a cross between Obama and Macron
    He looks the part and thinks because he’s a progressive centrist, and can string a sentence together, that’s enough.

    It isn’t.

    Obama and Macron knock him into the park on political and campaigning skills, particularly the former.
    Until he fights a general election as leader you cannot know that and of course both Obama and Macron had problems in their early years in power.

    However none of that changes the fact I cannot see any other figure in the 'Remain Alliance' as it were becoming PM bar Umunna, he is the best they have got whether he is in Obama and Macron's league or not
    You cannot see it because you are incapable of taking on board a point of view at odds with your own.
    OK clever cloggs, who is this Remainer Messiah other than Umunna then?
    I never said I thought there was one.

    But, if there were, Jess Philips, Jo Swinson, Emily Thornberry, and Dominic Grieve are all people I’d rate ahead of him.
    Jess Phillips looks like Kathy Burke, little chance of her. Jo Swinson could just about present the One Show that is it, Thornberry is a loudmouth and would have to get rid of the Corbynistas first and Grieve has no charisma
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder why such candidates could jump straight to being PM without any Cabinet or frontbench experience in the first place? Leading Westminster council is not an automatic route to Downing Street
    Had anyone noticed that this complete nobody had entered in the first place?
    Mrs Malthouse at a push?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    The safe option LDs want to give up Trident and nuclear weapons in general.

    Whats safe about that?
    Lab policy is to retain a nuclear deterrent Tories to upgrade it LDs scrap it
    Wrong not lib dem policy
    The last I remember was that the Lib Dems wanted to keep half a nuclear deterrent. Or have they changed their minds since then?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    nichomar said:

    Casino Royale made an excellent post this morning given Johnson, Corbyn or Farage the the lib dems become the safe option, slow change around voting system, increased education spending but overall safe.

    Thanks.

    Provided they don’t get high on their beards and sandals and push for the Euro (they’ll lose support again) or sex education for toddlers they’ve got a good strategic position.
    Do they still support legalising weed? That could be a popular policy. In fact, down here it’s effectively legal so might as well be taxed.
This discussion has been closed.