> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @AndyJS said: > > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October? > > Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
That would mean no general election this year. Maybe next spring is the next date when it might be likely.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion. > > Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now?
It is John Bolton you want to worry about. The US has already withdrawn from a number of supranational bodies or agreements, and even Trump is worried about being marched into another war.
> What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
And yet they could do it as a gamble. They are unlikely to get something new, their members will riot if we dont leave, they cannot pass anything and fear a referendum too much. A stupid GE then occurs.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @AndyJS said: > > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October? > > Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
They would only call it if Brexit Party voters were coming back to the Tories in the polls and they also showed they could beat Corbyn
Oh God if I hear anymore about the bleeding Brady Amendment I might lose it big time .
This scraped through because some of the Tories just voted for it knowing it can’t be delivered .
It was a faux show of so called unity . Now it’s held up as if Moses himself engraved it on a tablet of stone .
MPs won’t agree on anything . If a new PM wants a WTO exit they’ll end up putting it to a public vote to avoid responsibility for the ensuing car crash .
If by a miracle the Tories can deliver a sensible exit Farage will soon disappear .
He can trash it as not Brexit enough but the symbolism of the UK actually leaving the EU is very strong and will over ride that .
Voters will have had enough by then and want to move on .
Some wont, but enough to stop the descent and have some recovery. Out is out, even crappily - it's why people have fought so hard to stop even a super soft BINO.
> @kle4 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October? > > > > Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job > > And yet they could do it as a gamble. They are unlikely to get something new, their members will riot if we dont leave, they cannot pass anything and fear a referendum too much. A stupid GE then occurs.
Also we're assuming the DUP would be happy with any of the Tory leadership candidates, but maybe there are one or two they wouldn't be prepared to support for whatever reasons.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @ExiledInScotland said: > > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > > > > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion. > > > > Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now? > > It is John Bolton you want to worry about. The US has already withdrawn from a number of supranational bodies or agreements, and even Trump is worried about being marched into another war.
> @AndyJS said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October? > > > > > > > > Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job > > > > And yet they could do it as a gamble. They are unlikely to get something new, their members will riot if we dont leave, they cannot pass anything and fear a referendum too much. A stupid GE then occurs. > > Also we're assuming the DUP would be happy with any of the Tory leadership candidates, but maybe there are one or two they wouldn't be prepared to support for whatever reasons.
Yes. I seem to recall a new leader would need a new C+S agreement.
@HYUFD said: There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
+++++++++++++++
There's a majority in my house to buy a Ferrari 488 for $5,000
Unfortunately, my local dealership has yet to recognise the strength of our purpose. But it's only a matter of time. If a true believer to were to walk in to the dealership, they would fold for sure.
> @BillyBlake said: > @rcs1000 > I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM. > > Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well. > > The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015. > > Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10. > > They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return. > > If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
Please update your email address with a real one, as I don't like to ban people.
That the Tories have only won one majority in 27 years says more about Tory inadequacy than it does about the difficulty of winning an election or indeed the achievement of winning a majority. Blair won a majority in 2005 with less votes than John Major got when Blair trounced him in 1997. Thats how bad the Tories were before Dave and remember Dave and George with their faithful Willy threw away a 20 point lead in 2009 (against a mobile throwing little old lady hating Gordon Brown) on an announcement that they were forced to reverse in power to just keep their party together.
They could have avoided that woeful coalition and had a better majority in 2010 than they had in 2015 simply by not making the enormous blunder of denouncing an EU referendum they ended up giving ultimately(calling Eurosceptics fruitcakes wasn't clever either)
In 2015 they were largely aided by a Labour party led by Primrose Hill geek Ed Miliband as Labour's Scottish heartland collapsed to the SNP (who were the real winners of that election). In such circumstances with the Libdems collapsing for their coalition sins as well, a paltry majority of 10 is hardly something to crow about and was handed to them on a plate pretty much by default. Tory performance at any of the last three elections has been lacklustre and uninspiring, majority or no, and if anything 2015 just gave the various clique's within the PCP greater leverage than was even available to the PCP in the coalition. The big question is without that Referendum commitment in 2015 would Dave and George have lost the election to a Rainbow coalition?
Many would relish their return especially if the Tories end up in opposition which is why I think the current stories are just noise. Why would former party leaders return just to sit in opposition perhaps for a decade or more in a Torfy parfty that is really poor at winning elections?
The number of would-be candidates – currently over 20 – for the parliamentary party to choose from is large, although it does not constitute an embarrassment of riches. When in 1974, Richard Wood, the MP for Bridlington, was approached about running for the Conservative leadership he replied that: “Some of my friends have ideas above my station”. More than a few of today’s would-be candidates needs a dose of Wood’s modesty.
> @CarlottaVance said: > The number of would-be candidates – currently over 20 – for the parliamentary party to choose from is large, although it does not constitute an embarrassment of riches. When in 1974, Richard Wood, the MP for Bridlington, was approached about running for the Conservative leadership he replied that: “Some of my friends have ideas above my station”. More than a few of today’s would-be candidates needs a dose of Wood’s modesty. > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/what-history-can-tell-us-about-the-tory-leadership-race-6bgkmgqjd
More than 20 candidates for a party that could get 7% of the vote tonight.
More than 20 candidates for a party that could get 7% of the vote tonight.
Its no more than they deserve, but they could do slightly better than that - sadly many of the idiots that got them into this mess will think getting rid of May will address the problem rather than exacerbate it....
> @BillyBlake said: > @dixiedean > > That the Tories have only won one majority in 27 years says more about Tory inadequacy than it does about the difficulty of winning an election or indeed the achievement of winning a majority. Blair won a majority in 2005 with less votes than John Major got when Blair trounced him in (snip)
> They could have avoided that woeful coalition and had a better majority in 2010 than they had in 2015 simply by not making the enormous blunder of denouncing an EU referendum they ended up giving ultimately(calling Eurosceptics fruitcakes wasn't clever either) > > In 2015 they were largely aided by a Labour party led by Primrose Hill geek Ed Miliband as Labour's Scottish heartland collapsed to the SNP (who were the real winners of that election). In such circumstances with the Libdems collapsing for their coalition sins as well, a paltry majority of 10 is hardly something to crow about and was handed to them on a plate pretty much by default. Tory performance at any of the last three elections has been lacklustre and uninspiring, majority or no, and if anything 2015 just gave the various clique's within the PCP greater leverage than was even available to the PCP in the coalition. The big question is without that Referendum commitment in 2015 would Dave and George have lost the election to a Rainbow coalition? > > Many would relish their return especially if the Tories end up in opposition which is why I think the current stories are just noise. Why would former party leaders return just to sit in opposition perhaps for a decade or more in a Torfy parfty that is really poor at winning elections? > > So do carry on. > >
I don’t see much prospect of their re-entering active politics; politics is one area of life where there are rarely if ever second chances,
Our voting system is capricious and if the previous core votes start shifting around like they are now in the polls, anything could happen. Nevertheless the bottom line under ‘normal’ conditions is that the Tories cannot win a majority if the LibDems are holding fifty or so ex-Tory seats mostly in the West Country, and Labour cannot win a majority if the SNP has cleaned up in Scotland.
The current Brexit fiasco is entrenching the SNP in Scotland and appears to be handing the LibDems a passage back toward those fifty seats. So, regardless of how Farage does elsewhere, neither the Tories nor Labour appears to have a viable route toward a majority right now. Hence a GE appears unlikely, despite all the noise. Indeed the most viable majority now appears to be a Farage one if he does so well that he assembles enough seats taken from both Tory and Labour - but that needs a national share of the vote that I don’t see him getting in a GE. Whether he gets it in EU protest election we will find out later tonight.
> @rcs1000 said: > There's a majority in my house to buy a Ferrari 488 for $5,000 > > Unfortunately, my local dealership has yet to recognise the strength of our purpose. But it's only a matter of time. If a true believer to were to walk in to the dealership, they would fold for sure.
And if you don't get your Ferrari by October, you will set fire to your house.
Comments
> > @AndyJS said:
> > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
>
> Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
That would mean no general election this year. Maybe next spring is the next date when it might be likely.
He can trash it as not Brexit enough but the symbolism of the UK actually leaving the EU is very strong and will over ride that .
Voters will have had enough by then and want to move on .
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > >
> > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
> >
> > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
>
> Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now?
It is John Bolton you want to worry about. The US has already withdrawn from a number of supranational bodies or agreements, and even Trump is worried about being marched into another war.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
>
> Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
They would only call it if Brexit Party voters were coming back to the Tories in the polls and they also showed they could beat Corbyn
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
>
>
>
> Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
>
> And yet they could do it as a gamble. They are unlikely to get something new, their members will riot if we dont leave, they cannot pass anything and fear a referendum too much. A stupid GE then occurs.
Also we're assuming the DUP would be happy with any of the Tory leadership candidates, but maybe there are one or two they wouldn't be prepared to support for whatever reasons.
> > @ExiledInScotland said:
> > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > >
> > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
> > >
> > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
> >
> > Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now?
>
> It is John Bolton you want to worry about. The US has already withdrawn from a number of supranational bodies or agreements, and even Trump is worried about being marched into another war.
Yep. He's got form.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
> >
> >
> >
> > Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
> >
> > And yet they could do it as a gamble. They are unlikely to get something new, their members will riot if we dont leave, they cannot pass anything and fear a referendum too much. A stupid GE then occurs.
>
> Also we're assuming the DUP would be happy with any of the Tory leadership candidates, but maybe there are one or two they wouldn't be prepared to support for whatever reasons.
Yes. I seem to recall a new leader would need a new C+S agreement.
There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
+++++++++++++++
There's a majority in my house to buy a Ferrari 488 for $5,000
Unfortunately, my local dealership has yet to recognise the strength of our purpose. But it's only a matter of time. If a true believer to were to walk in to the dealership, they would fold for sure.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1132398480956252160?s=21
> @rcs1000
> I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM.
>
> Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well.
>
> The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015.
>
> Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10.
>
> They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return.
>
> If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
Please update your email address with a real one, as I don't like to ban people.
(Unless they are rude about Radiohead)
> Purge the Remoaners!
>
> https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1132398480956252160?s=21
Crush the Saboteurs!
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Purge the Remoaners!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1132398480956252160?s=21
>
> Crush the Saboteurs!
Yes.
https://twitter.com/AbeShinzo/status/1132224813177614337
https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1132234103934377984
That the Tories have only won one majority in 27 years says more about Tory inadequacy than it does about the difficulty of winning an election or indeed the achievement of winning a majority. Blair won a majority in 2005 with less votes than John Major got when Blair trounced him in 1997. Thats how bad the Tories were before Dave and remember Dave and George with their faithful Willy threw away a 20 point lead in 2009 (against a mobile throwing little old lady hating Gordon Brown) on an announcement that they were forced to reverse in power to just keep their party together.
They could have avoided that woeful coalition and had a better majority in 2010 than they had in 2015 simply by not making the enormous blunder of denouncing an EU referendum they ended up giving ultimately(calling Eurosceptics fruitcakes wasn't clever either)
In 2015 they were largely aided by a Labour party led by Primrose Hill geek Ed Miliband as Labour's Scottish heartland collapsed to the SNP (who were the real winners of that election). In such circumstances with the Libdems collapsing for their coalition sins as well, a paltry majority of 10 is hardly something to crow about and was handed to them on a plate pretty much by default. Tory performance at any of the last three elections has been lacklustre and uninspiring, majority or no, and if anything 2015 just gave the various clique's within the PCP greater leverage than was even available to the PCP in the coalition. The big question is without that Referendum commitment in 2015 would Dave and George have lost the election to a Rainbow coalition?
Many would relish their return especially if the Tories end up in opposition which is why I think the current stories are just noise. Why would former party leaders return just to sit in opposition perhaps for a decade or more in a Torfy parfty that is really poor at winning elections?
So do carry on.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/what-history-can-tell-us-about-the-tory-leadership-race-6bgkmgqjd
> The number of would-be candidates – currently over 20 – for the parliamentary party to choose from is large, although it does not constitute an embarrassment of riches. When in 1974, Richard Wood, the MP for Bridlington, was approached about running for the Conservative leadership he replied that: “Some of my friends have ideas above my station”. More than a few of today’s would-be candidates needs a dose of Wood’s modesty.
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/what-history-can-tell-us-about-the-tory-leadership-race-6bgkmgqjd
More than 20 candidates for a party that could get 7% of the vote tonight.
> @dixiedean
>
> That the Tories have only won one majority in 27 years says more about Tory inadequacy than it does about the difficulty of winning an election or indeed the achievement of winning a majority. Blair won a majority in 2005 with less votes than John Major got when Blair trounced him in (snip)
> They could have avoided that woeful coalition and had a better majority in 2010 than they had in 2015 simply by not making the enormous blunder of denouncing an EU referendum they ended up giving ultimately(calling Eurosceptics fruitcakes wasn't clever either)
>
> In 2015 they were largely aided by a Labour party led by Primrose Hill geek Ed Miliband as Labour's Scottish heartland collapsed to the SNP (who were the real winners of that election). In such circumstances with the Libdems collapsing for their coalition sins as well, a paltry majority of 10 is hardly something to crow about and was handed to them on a plate pretty much by default. Tory performance at any of the last three elections has been lacklustre and uninspiring, majority or no, and if anything 2015 just gave the various clique's within the PCP greater leverage than was even available to the PCP in the coalition. The big question is without that Referendum commitment in 2015 would Dave and George have lost the election to a Rainbow coalition?
>
> Many would relish their return especially if the Tories end up in opposition which is why I think the current stories are just noise. Why would former party leaders return just to sit in opposition perhaps for a decade or more in a Torfy parfty that is really poor at winning elections?
>
> So do carry on.
>
>
I don’t see much prospect of their re-entering active politics; politics is one area of life where there are rarely if ever second chances,
Our voting system is capricious and if the previous core votes start shifting around like they are now in the polls, anything could happen. Nevertheless the bottom line under ‘normal’ conditions is that the Tories cannot win a majority if the LibDems are holding fifty or so ex-Tory seats mostly in the West Country, and Labour cannot win a majority if the SNP has cleaned up in Scotland.
The current Brexit fiasco is entrenching the SNP in Scotland and appears to be handing the LibDems a passage back toward those fifty seats. So, regardless of how Farage does elsewhere, neither the Tories nor Labour appears to have a viable route toward a majority right now. Hence a GE appears unlikely, despite all the noise. Indeed the most viable majority now appears to be a Farage one if he does so well that he assembles enough seats taken from both Tory and Labour - but that needs a national share of the vote that I don’t see him getting in a GE. Whether he gets it in EU protest election we will find out later tonight.
> There's a majority in my house to buy a Ferrari 488 for $5,000
>
> Unfortunately, my local dealership has yet to recognise the strength of our purpose. But it's only a matter of time. If a true believer to were to walk in to the dealership, they would fold for sure.
And if you don't get your Ferrari by October, you will set fire to your house.