> @kle4 said: > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time... > > > > It could be three months before the final two are put to members! > > They've essentially said they want all the MP votes done and dusted by the end of June have they not? I'm sure you jest as well, since I think we can be pretty confident some of those near the bottom will concede after a few rounds.
Oh what fun we're going to have with the Con leadership election!
Indeed. I shall not forgive the LDs for not have every one of their MPs put themselves forward to replace Cable. Is my memory correct that the LD rule was that you needed 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate, and therefore last time it would only require 1 nomination?
You'd expect most of the candidates to drop out after the first round when they see how little support they have. So it could be down to 5 or 6 candidates by the second round.
@HYUFD said: Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
++++++++++
Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
Also, unicorns.
Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
If not, they are doomed.
No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit first. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. They can then try to rebuild trust with remainers and try to reassure Brexiteers that we are out and that's that, it is not necessary to go to Farage in large numbers.
But they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave.
It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately sets his own too soon.
> @kle4 said: > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good. > > > > I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage? > > > > If not, they are doomed. > > No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. And they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave. > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
Did everyone criticise the red lines?
I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
Indeed. Corbyn would be a total, total catastrophe for the British economy. He is Brexit times ten thousand. Anyone who supports him, his party, his MPs, must be regarded as severely dangerous - or deluded. And as an enemy of our national interest.
Corbs is the last best hope for the Tory party. Which is the measure of how crap the Tory party has become.
Warwick university has also had a similar setup for donkeys years with its advanced manufacturing group. This kind of thinking is why the likes of Warwick, Exeter, Bath, despite being new universities, are now ranked up there in the top 10 in the country.
But of course Mr "Ban Driverless Trains" wouldn't know shit about that.
I remember in the not so distant past when Labour thought the likes of Warwick uni was a model for the future. Leaving behind their hard left reputation of the 70-80s and embracing business and industry.
Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see:
Hammond
Letwin
IDS
Fox
Grayling
Which makes me think it really is very open.
Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
Grayling running would be great fun for the satirists, but the Tories really would then become a laughing stock. A Jezza vs. Grayling GE would be amusing though, if only to see Uncle Vince's replacement win in a landslide
> I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
>
>
>
> I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
>
>
>
> If not, they are doomed.
>
> No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. And they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave.
>
> It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
Did everyone criticise the red lines?
I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them?
@Byronic said: I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
If not, they are doomed.
+++++++++++++
Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics.
Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.)
Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government?
Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?
> @rcs1000 said: > @Byronic said: > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on > If not, they are doomed. > > +++++++++++++ > > Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics. > > Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.) > > Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government? > > Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?<
+++++
Too many imponderables. Does not compute. Therefore uninteresting. Sorry.
> @rottenborough said: > What a surprise! Labour members suddenly realising Jezza has been missing in action in another major Brexit-related election. > > For the love of God will someone not run against him this summer? Jess? > >twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132302022261301248
Hey to be fair, the weather has been good and he probably took the opportunity to get the allotment sorted out.
> @rcs1000 said: > @Byronic said: > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good. > > I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage? > > If not, they are doomed. > > +++++++++++++ > > Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics. > > Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.) > > Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government? > > Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?
BXP would surely stand, but how much? Farage would presumably stand anywhere it is felt the candidates most likely to win are not gung ho no deal enough. So a great many Tories would have BXP opponents because, and this is actually true enough, he could not trust them to deliver on a no deal manifesto - and if we assume anyone who would not do that would be deselected en masse, well, that opens up other problems.
I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
If not, they are doomed.
+++++++++++++
Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics.
Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.)
Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government?
Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?
Boris is trying to run a classic GOP primary campaign. Win the primary from the 'Right', and then tack to the centre for the GE.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good. > > > > > > > > > > > > I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage? > > > > > > > > > > > > If not, they are doomed. > > > > > > No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. And they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave. > > > > > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon. > > > > Did everyone criticise the red lines? > > > > I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them. > > Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them?
Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved.
Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
> @AndyJS said: > Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.
And as impressive as that was, he's been coasting on that for a long time. Labour should get Blair back in as leader under the same reasoning Boris's backers use for how because he is a winner he is the right man now (yes, I am aware he is also popular with the members).
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal > > ++++++++++ > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing". > > Also, unicorns. > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing. > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left. > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker. > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
> @Byronic said: > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good. > > I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage? > > If not, they are doomed.
Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
I liked Cameron just fine, but it just would not work, certainly not while Brexit even happening at all (let alone negotiations for a future relationship) is very much an open question and the atmosphere still so febrile. What would be his pitch to either side in this?
> Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway --------------------------------------------- A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might?
> @kle4 said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > Gang getting back together? > > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7070835/David-Cameron-considering-dramatic-political-return-standing-MP-friends-reveal.html > -------------------------------------------------------------- > We had this story come up last year as I recall, and very quickly other friends of Cameron insisted it was not the case. > > I liked Cameron just fine, but it just would not work, certainly not while Brexit even happening at all (let alone negotiations for a future relationship) is very much an open question and the atmosphere still so febrile. What would be his pitch to either side in this?
> @rottenborough said: > What a surprise! Labour members suddenly realising Jezza has been missing in action in another major Brexit-related election. > > For the love of God will someone not run against him this summer? Jess? > > twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132302022261301248
This time tomorrow Corbyn will look like a Machiavellian (or is that Mandelsonian?) strategist or else Farage's enabler, depending on how the results come in.
Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
> @AndyJS said: > Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.<
+++++
Yep. Agreed. His first move - in this contest - was a massive unforced error. He could have come out swinging punches and *sounding* ultra-Brexity.... without actually committing to anything. That would have been the clever move.
No one wants or expects total certainty in such a volatile and fluent situation. Instead Boris offered a huge hostage to fortune, bound and gagged with duct tape, for no reason at all.
That's just bad politics, aside from any morality or ideology. Bojo doesn't have political nous, I fear.
Which leaves us with Gove. Help. He's waaaaaaay better than Corbyn, but can he persuade the people?
> @HYUFD said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing". > > > > Also, unicorns. > > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing. > > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left. > > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker. > > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together. > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway. > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers.
You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election.
As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
> We had this story come up last year as I recall, and very quickly other friends of Cameron insisted it was not the case.
>
> I liked Cameron just fine, but it just would not work, certainly not while Brexit even happening at all (let alone negotiations for a future relationship) is very much an open question and the atmosphere still so febrile. What would be his pitch to either side in this?
"I think I would be quite good at the job"?
If it were merely about being day to day PM he might have a reasonable case, the Coalition did alright, but the pitch has to be about sorting out Brexit, one thing we know he was unable to do!
> > > > > > > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon. > > > > > > > > Did everyone criticise the red lines? > > > > > > > > I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them. > > > > Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them? > > Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved. > > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. <
++++++
The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
@HYUFD said: Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
++++++++
"obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October"
So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader?
Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
> @Byronic said: > > The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
I think that's actually the least of his problems. If he's making progress towards a revised deal I think few would complain about an extension. If he's not, the date works.
> @kle4 said: > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. > > Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
This time tomorrow Corbyn will look like a Machiavellian (or is that Mandelsonian?) strategist or else Farage's enabler, depending on how the results come in.
Or, be facing a full blown leadership crisis if Lab come third.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway > --------------------------------------------- > A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might? >
Hyufd is predictable on most of his posts but sadly for him nothing is predictable at present
> Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
>
> Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
And what if Boris comes back to deliver a deal the ERG lunatics don't like and vote against? Should Baker, Francois and Rees-Mogg also be deselected?
> @Byronic said: > > @Philip_Thompson said: > > > > > > > > > > > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon. > > > > > > > > > > > > Did everyone criticise the red lines? > > > > > > > > > > > > I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them. > > > > > > Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them? > > > > Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved. > > > > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. < > > ++++++ > > The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @kle4 said: > > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. > > > > Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it. > > If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election. > > If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
Grieve's local party may have already deselected him by that point, so what incentive does he have to stay loyal?
I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
> Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
>
> Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
That path requires a lot of confidence that the Tories, having just deselected a potentially sizable chunk of their MPs and thus presumably given the green light to that faction of supporters not to vote for them, will then go on to win a majority. Would Farage and co just trust that this time the Tories will definitely leave no matter what? Or will they stand in at least some areas, potentially costing the Tories some more seats by splitting the vote?
I really don't see where this confidence is coming from - BXP are about to do very well tomorrow, and no deal polls pretty well too, but with FPTP and a multi party democracy, and the Tories cutting themselves down to core no dealers and hoping BXP do not undercut them, I don't see that a cavalier attitude that mass deselection and no deal as a GE strategy will see success.
> @edmundintokyo said: > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
Ah, so you think that some of the MPs who voted for No Deal in the indicative ballots did so safe in the knowledge they would lose, but then they could show their vote to their local membership and electorate to ward off the more crazy elements.
How many candidates are there who rule out no deal?
> Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
>
> Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
And what if Boris comes back to deliver a deal the ERG lunatics don't like and vote against? Should Baker, Francois and Rees-Mogg also be deselected?
They are allowed to vote against their party over and over, without being disloyal, because theirs is the true path. It's called the Corbyn approach.
Although in fairness the members, while shooting for the deal at the very end in some polling, probably really are better reflected by the Bakers and Francois of the world than the others.
More nonsense implying if only people believed in it things would have gone, and will go, just fine.
We know that is bollocks because even people who did vote leave in 2016, but do not back no deal, are stated to not be trying to deliver Brexit by the hardliners.
Believing in Brexit, voting for Brexit in 2016, is not enough to satisfy them, in the same way even the softest of Brexits would never have satisfied their counterpart, Grieve. Given only backing for specific types of Brexit does, the assertion that a leaver must be leader and then it would/will be ok, falls down for the falsehood it is.
> @rottenborough said: > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump.
This time tomorrow Corbyn will look like a Machiavellian (or is that Mandelsonian?) strategist or else Farage's enabler, depending on how the results come in.
Or, be facing a full blown leadership crisis if Lab come third.
You can probably guess what I will hoping for.
To be sure. I just cannot shake the feeling that Labour will hold up better than expected - their polling was ok for the most part, and they have either been truly depressed or else are working the expectations game extremely hard. With BXP and LD expectations now super high, Labour just by holding second will breath a sigh of relief.
surprise surprise, Farage is already going for Boris by the jugular, saying you can't trust him. No way will there be any kind of brexit party pact. Farage can smell a route to genuine political power but he needs to destroy the tories for it to happen. He will always be able to argue for a stronger form of brexit and brand Boris, Raab, Baker as not being pure enough.
> @kle4 said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > Trump is now dragging Kim Jong Un into his election campaign. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1132413516063870977 > > > > > > > > Swamp-man ? > > > > Maybe he’s confusing him with John Kerry and Vietnam? > > Swamp-man as in the Washington D.C swamp of 'drain the swamp' fame, I suspect.
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway > --------------------------------------------- > A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might? >
Macron made quite clear last week he would not allow Brexit to 'pollute the EU' in his words any further beyond October, from then it is No Deal or Revoke if the Commons has not yet passed the Withdrawal Agreement
> @Philip_Thompson said: > > @kle4 said: > > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. > > > > Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it. > > If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election. > > If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
Boris (or whoever) will not inherit a Conservative majority government, remember, so it would be brave to start expelling MPs, and courageous to call an election soon after a poor showing in the local elections and a (forecast) near wipeout in the Euros. In any case, if you look at who kept voting against the government on Brexit, you will find Boris's supporters, not his opponents.
> > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
> ---------------------------------------------
> A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might?
>
Macron made quite clear last week he would not allow Brexit to 'pollute the EU' in his words any further beyond October, from then it is No Deal or Revoke if the Commons has not yet passed the Withdrawal Agreement
Doesn't quite answer my question - I'm unclear if you have intentionally switched from 'likely' to 'might'. If your answer is your belief of what he will do, why use 'might'?
> @solarflare said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time. > > Just think, if he becomes Prime Minister we can probably indirectly blame Angus Deayton.
Coke and whores have consequences. Usually not quite that wide-ranging, but nonetheless.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing". > > > > > > Also, unicorns. > > > > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing. > > > > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left. > > > > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. > > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker. > > > > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together. > > > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway. > > > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those > > Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers. > > You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election. > > As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
> @HYUFD said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion. > > The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump. > > Most of them even preferred Cruz to Trump
Yet now they have Trump, they are content since Trump lets them get on with their own policies. There will be no GOP Establishment challenger to Trump next year.
Question: My understanding is that random public and media do not have automatic rights to attend an election count like candidates and agents, but in practice do the officials usually let anyone show up and witness?
> @rcs1000 said: > @HYUFD said: > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway > > ++++++++ > > "obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October" > > So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader? > > Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
The Withdrawal Agreement has been done, amending the backstop should not take long at all and then can be quickly passed through the Commons
I am beginning to wonder. At first it looked like a 'I want a Cabinet post' run. Then, as some PBers have noted, it might look like 'I am ready for the next but one leader role, as I told you so' (ie. flag in the sand).
Now, I am wondering whether this is a plot involving another candidate.
> Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
>
> ++++++++
>
> "obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October"
>
> So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader?
>
> Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
The Withdrawal Agreement has been done, amending the backstop should not take long at all and then can be quickly passed through the Commons
The EU has no incentive to do so especially when remain is still pushing so hard.
Question: My understanding is that random public and media do not have automatic rights to attend an election count like candidates and agents, but in practice do the officials usually let anyone show up and witness?
My experience is a definite 'No'.
All the counts I have been to, you need a ticket, in advance, which has been signed off by a party and the agent etc etc.
@rcs1000 I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM.
Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well.
The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015.
Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10.
They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return.
If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
> @HYUFD said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal > > > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing". > > > > > > > > Also, unicorns. > > > > > > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing. > > > > > > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left. > > > > > > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. > > > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker. > > > > > > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together. > > > > > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway. > > > > > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those > > > > Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers. > > > > You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election. > > > > As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns. > > There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed. > > If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
And the end of the conservative party and brexit. All over for Boris and the hard liners
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now?
Question: My understanding is that random public and media do not have automatic rights to attend an election count like candidates and agents, but in practice do the officials usually let anyone show up and witness?
My experience is a definite 'No'.
All the counts I have been to, you need a ticket, in advance, which has been signed off by a party and the agent etc etc.
Shame. I can see why you would not want a free for all, with no control over who shows up at all, but in general if someone was interested enough to witness the event it doesn't seem unreasonable so long as you keep the numbers managable and have reasonable security.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132418063356309505 > > > > More nonsense implying if only people believed in it things would have gone, and will go, just fine. > > We know that is bollocks because even people who did vote leave in 2016, but do not back no deal, are stated to not be trying to deliver Brexit by the hardliners. > > Believing in Brexit, voting for Brexit in 2016, is not enough to satisfy them, in the same way even the softest of Brexits would never have satisfied their counterpart, Grieve. Given only backing for specific types of Brexit does, the assertion that a leaver must be leader and then it would/will be ok, falls down for the falsehood it is.
As I have said before I think it is more complex than that but in the case of May the basic accusation is correct. The lack of belief is combined with or results in a lack of understanding. May seems to have believed that the only point of Brexit was to cut immigration. As such she made decisions which were bound to end up with very little support because they ignored or relegated other key concerns about the EU which were just as important if not more so than the immigration debate.
Had one of the Leave Ministers been the one who took over from Cameron I believe they would have had a far better insight into what it was that drove the Leave vote and would not have made so many basic mistakes based on ignorance.
> @kle4 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway > > > > > > ++++++++ > > > > > > "obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October" > > > > > > So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader? > > > > > > Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit". > > > > The Withdrawal Agreement has been done, amending the backstop should not take long at all and then can be quickly passed through the Commons > > The EU has no incentive to do so especially when remain is still pushing so hard.
The UK is still the EU's largest export destination and the Brexit Party winning tomorrow will show there is no fear surge to Remain in the UK.
The EU will not scrap a backstop but they might amend elements of it to enable a more technical solution
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Oh what fun we're going to have with the Con leadership election! > > Don't forget Vince and the Lib Dems > > Then if labour have any sense !!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah but no one does duplicity, back-stabbing and downright nastiness quite like the Tories in a leadership contest.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal > > > > > > > > > > ++++++++++ > > > > > > > > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing". > > > > > > > > > > Also, unicorns. > > > > > > > > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing. > > > > > > > > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left. > > > > > > > > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed. > > > > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker. > > > > > > > > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together. > > > > > > > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway. > > > > > > > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those > > > > > > Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers. > > > > > > You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election. > > > > > > As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns. > > > > There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed. > > > > If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed > > And the end of the conservative party and brexit. All over for Boris and the hard liners
Nope, Opinium last weekend had No Deal preferred by voters to revoke and further extension combined.
The only end for the Conservative Party would be to extend again without a Deal agreed or amended, in which case the Brexit Party would overtake it
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office. > > > > > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion. > > > > The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump. > > > > Most of them even preferred Cruz to Trump > > Yet now they have Trump, they are content since Trump lets them get on with their own policies. There will be no GOP Establishment challenger to Trump next year.
> @Paristonda said: > surprise surprise, Farage is already going for Boris by the jugular, saying you can't trust him. No way will there be any kind of brexit party pact. Farage can smell a route to genuine political power but he needs to destroy the tories for it to happen. He will always be able to argue for a stronger form of brexit and brand Boris, Raab, Baker as not being pure enough.
The Tories won a majority in 2015 despite Farage's party getting 12%.
It is only failing to deliver Brexit that really makes Farage a threat to the Tories
Oh God if I hear anymore about the bleeding Brady Amendment I might lose it big time .
This scraped through because some of the Tories just voted for it knowing it can’t be delivered .
It was a faux show of so called unity . Now it’s held up as if Moses himself engraved it on a tablet of stone .
MPs won’t agree on anything . If a new PM wants a WTO exit they’ll end up putting it to a public vote to avoid responsibility for the ensuing car crash .
> More nonsense implying if only people believed in it things would have gone, and will go, just fine.
>
> We know that is bollocks because even people who did vote leave in 2016, but do not back no deal, are stated to not be trying to deliver Brexit by the hardliners.
>
> Believing in Brexit, voting for Brexit in 2016, is not enough to satisfy them, in the same way even the softest of Brexits would never have satisfied their counterpart, Grieve. Given only backing for specific types of Brexit does, the assertion that a leaver must be leader and then it would/will be ok, falls down for the falsehood it is.
As I have said before I think it is more complex than that but in the case of May the basic accusation is correct. The lack of belief is combined with or results in a lack of understanding. May seems to have believed that the only point of Brexit was to cut immigration. As such she made decisions which were bound to end up with very little support because they ignored or relegated other key concerns about the EU which were just as important if not more so than the immigration debate.
Had one of the Leave Ministers been the one who took over from Cameron I believe they would have had a far better insight into what it was that drove the Leave vote and would not have made so many basic mistakes based on ignorance.
You think it more complex but that is not how people frame it . And there is no getting round that many leave voting mps did back the deal, and yet doing so is regarded as terrible by the hold outs and BXP.
So the idea that a leaver would not have made basic errors through lack of understanding is a total irrelevance since those mistakes did not stop many many leavers supporting Mays' deal, yet most of those who did will be deemed as unacceptable as a remainer. Gove voted leave, would he be a suitable leaver leader in the eyes of the hold outs? No. It would change from 'it must be a leaver' to 'but not that one' very soon, proving being a leaver is not the actual desire.
Many things are complex but I dont think this is one of them. A soft leaver would be no better than a remainer to many, so no, a leaver would not be the key criteria, they'd have to the thr right kind of leaver - that's what the actions of mps demonstrates.
> @BillyBlake said: > @rcs1000 > I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM. > > Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well. > > The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015. > > Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10. > > They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return. > > If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
George and Dave, of course, the ones who won the only Tory majority in the last 27 years, were never any good at political strategy. Do carry on. Edit: Goodness. I'm sounding like @TSE.
Comments
> Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
>
>
>
> It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
>
> They've essentially said they want all the MP votes done and dusted by the end of June have they not? I'm sure you jest as well, since I think we can be pretty confident some of those near the bottom will concede after a few rounds.
18th June reported by Sky today
> Oh what fun we're going to have with the Con leadership election!
Don't forget Vince and the Lib Dems
Then if labour have any sense !!!!!!!!!!!!
Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
++++++++++
Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
Also, unicorns.
Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
https://twitter.com/Skapinker/status/1132361425886879745
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
If not, they are doomed.
But they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave.
It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately sets his own too soon.
> I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
>
>
>
> I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
>
>
>
> If not, they are doomed.
>
> No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. And they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave.
>
> It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
Did everyone criticise the red lines?
I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
> This. This is our future if Jezza wins. A blinkered, one size fits all, nothing is allowed to work that does not fit my 1970s marxist view of society:
>
> https://twitter.com/Skapinker/status/1132361425886879745<;
++++
Indeed. Corbyn would be a total, total catastrophe for the British economy. He is Brexit times ten thousand. Anyone who supports him, his party, his MPs, must be regarded as severely dangerous - or deluded. And as an enemy of our national interest.
Corbs is the last best hope for the Tory party. Which is the measure of how crap the Tory party has become.
> This. This is our future if Jezza wins. A blinkered, one size fits all, nothing is allowed to work that does not fit my 1970s marxist view of society:
>
> https://twitter.com/Skapinker/status/1132361425886879745
Warwick university has also had a similar setup for donkeys years with its advanced manufacturing group. This kind of thinking is why the likes of Warwick, Exeter, Bath, despite being new universities, are now ranked up there in the top 10 in the country.
But of course Mr "Ban Driverless Trains" wouldn't know shit about that.
I remember in the not so distant past when Labour thought the likes of Warwick uni was a model for the future. Leaving behind their hard left reputation of the 70-80s and embracing business and industry.
For the love of God will someone not run against him this summer? Jess?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132302022261301248
I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
If not, they are doomed.
+++++++++++++
Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics.
Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.)
Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government?
Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?
"Such as?"
"We'll moan about the leader on twitter, then vote for him some more!"
> @Byronic said:
> I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on
> If not, they are doomed.
>
> +++++++++++++
>
> Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics.
>
> Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.)
>
> Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government?
>
> Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?<
+++++
Too many imponderables. Does not compute. Therefore uninteresting. Sorry.
> What a surprise! Labour members suddenly realising Jezza has been missing in action in another major Brexit-related election.
>
> For the love of God will someone not run against him this summer? Jess?
>
>twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132302022261301248
Hey to be fair, the weather has been good and he probably took the opportunity to get the allotment sorted out.
> @Byronic said:
> I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
>
> I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
>
> If not, they are doomed.
>
> +++++++++++++
>
> Yes, Johnson has demonstrated that he's better at Telegraph editorials than actual, you know, politics.
>
> Here's the question. If a No Dealer like Patel takes over and calls an immediate General Election (bear with me), does her stance neutralise the Brexit Party, and result in a majority of MPs who would support a No Deal exit? (Which might not be a sensible choice - certainly, I don't think it'll be all fun and games - but would at least have a stamp of democratic legitimacy.)
>
> Or does the Brexit Party still stand (Farage now wants to be Donald Trump), and split the No Deal vote, leading to a Corbyn government?
>
> Or is it (perhaps) the case that the actual number of No Dealers is rather fewer than we imagine, and we end up with a government of national unity putting Remain vs No Deal to a referendum?
BXP would surely stand, but how much? Farage would presumably stand anywhere it is felt the candidates most likely to win are not gung ho no deal enough. So a great many Tories would have BXP opponents because, and this is actually true enough, he could not trust them to deliver on a no deal manifesto - and if we assume anyone who would not do that would be deselected en masse, well, that opens up other problems.
"Speaking to the Mail on Sunday, Mr Raab said the UK needed to leave the EU on October 31 "at the latest"."
I just get the feeling that things are moving in Gove's direction.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48410734
Unfortunately, for Boris, the UK is not the US.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If not, they are doomed.
>
> >
>
> > No they don't, for the simple reason that to have the chance they need to deliver Brexit. Of any kind, but ideally something hardish for the sake of the members. And they don't have the numbers for any Brexit. No, Brady does not count unless the EU cave.
>
> >
>
> > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
>
>
>
> Did everyone criticise the red lines?
>
>
>
> I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
>
> Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them?
Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved.
Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
> Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.
And as impressive as that was, he's been coasting on that for a long time. Labour should get Blair back in as leader under the same reasoning Boris's backers use for how because he is a winner he is the right man now (yes, I am aware he is also popular with the members).
> Con home
>
> Hunt 27 Johnson 19 Gove 13 Raab 13 Javid 10
Hunt on top but the outcome will be determined by how MPs coalesce as their first choices drop out at each stage. (Guido has Hunt back in fourth.)
> @HYUFD said:
> Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
>
> ++++++++++
>
> Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
>
> Also, unicorns.
>
> Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
>
> So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
>
> If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
> If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
>
> The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7070835/David-Cameron-considering-dramatic-political-return-standing-MP-friends-reveal.html
> I have to say Boris has seriously surprised on the downside with his early positioning. Why the heck would you impose a terribly awkward redline on yourself, like saying we MUST leave by Halloween? It is the action of an impulsive, slightly unthinking man. Not good.
>
> I predict he is going to fail in these elections. Which leaves the Tories with a terrible dilemma. Do they have ANYONE else who can beat Corbyn AND see off Farage?
>
> If not, they are doomed.
Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
> Gang getting back together?
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7070835/David-Cameron-considering-dramatic-political-return-standing-MP-friends-reveal.html
--------------------------------------------------------------
We had this story come up last year as I recall, and very quickly other friends of Cameron insisted it was not the case.
I liked Cameron just fine, but it just would not work, certainly not while Brexit even happening at all (let alone negotiations for a future relationship) is very much an open question and the atmosphere still so febrile. What would be his pitch to either side in this?
I just cannot see him 'let this lie'.
> Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
---------------------------------------------
A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might?
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Gang getting back together?
> >
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7070835/David-Cameron-considering-dramatic-political-return-standing-MP-friends-reveal.html
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> We had this story come up last year as I recall, and very quickly other friends of Cameron insisted it was not the case.
>
> I liked Cameron just fine, but it just would not work, certainly not while Brexit even happening at all (let alone negotiations for a future relationship) is very much an open question and the atmosphere still so febrile. What would be his pitch to either side in this?
"I think I would be quite good at the job"?
> What a surprise! Labour members suddenly realising Jezza has been missing in action in another major Brexit-related election.
>
> For the love of God will someone not run against him this summer? Jess?
>
> twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132302022261301248
This time tomorrow Corbyn will look like a Machiavellian (or is that Mandelsonian?) strategist or else Farage's enabler, depending on how the results come in.
> Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.<
+++++
Yep. Agreed. His first move - in this contest - was a massive unforced error. He could have come out swinging punches and *sounding* ultra-Brexity.... without actually committing to anything. That would have been the clever move.
No one wants or expects total certainty in such a volatile and fluent situation. Instead Boris offered a huge hostage to fortune, bound and gagged with duct tape, for no reason at all.
That's just bad politics, aside from any morality or ideology. Bojo doesn't have political nous, I fear.
Which leaves us with Gove. Help. He's waaaaaaay better than Corbyn, but can he persuade the people?
Eeesh.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
> >
> > ++++++++++
> >
> > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
> >
> > Also, unicorns.
> >
> > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
> >
> > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
> >
> > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
> > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
> >
> > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
>
> The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
>
> The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers.
You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election.
As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
> > >
> >
> > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
> >
> >
> >
> > Did everyone criticise the red lines?
> >
> >
> >
> > I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
> >
> > Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them?
>
> Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved.
>
> Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. <
++++++
The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
After all her fussing and trouser shoots - Truss is out of the running:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/25/tory-leader-must-someone-backed-brexit-2016-liz-truss-says-rules/
Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
++++++++
"obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October"
So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader?
Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
>
> The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
I think that's actually the least of his problems. If he's making progress towards a revised deal I think few would complain about an extension. If he's not, the date works.
> Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
>
> Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
You can probably guess what I will hoping for.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1132413516063870977?s=21
> Trump is now dragging Kim Jong Un into his election campaign.
>
> https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1132413516063870977?s=21
Swamp-man ?
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
> ---------------------------------------------
> A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might?
>
Hyufd is predictable on most of his posts but sadly for him nothing is predictable at present
> > @Philip_Thompson said:
>
> > > >
> > >
> > > > It'll be interesting to see if, after everyone criticised May's' red lines, he immediately set his own too soon.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Did everyone criticise the red lines?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I think many cheered the red lines and criticised her for breaching them.
> > >
> > > Fair enough, many people criticised her red lines as setting unreaslitic expectations that could not be met, or she was unable to meet at least. Johnson's red line is much simpler, but if he finds he cannot meet them?
> >
> > Johnson can meet them if he is seriously prepared to accept no deal. Only by seriously being prepared to accept no deal can a good deal be achieved.
> >
> > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff. <
>
> ++++++
>
> The problem with what Boris said is that he put a date on it. Suicidal.
And now Raad apparently
But we know Brexiteers are not good at thinking
> > @kle4 said:
> > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
> >
> > Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
>
> If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
>
> If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
Grieve's local party may have already deselected him by that point, so what incentive does he have to stay loyal?
I really don't see where this confidence is coming from - BXP are about to do very well tomorrow, and no deal polls pretty well too, but with FPTP and a multi party democracy, and the Tories cutting themselves down to core no dealers and hoping BXP do not undercut them, I don't see that a cavalier attitude that mass deselection and no deal as a GE strategy will see success.
> If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
Ah, so you think that some of the MPs who voted for No Deal in the indicative ballots did so safe in the knowledge they would lose, but then they could show their vote to their local membership and electorate to ward off the more crazy elements.
How many candidates are there who rule out no deal?
I can now see my Truss position.
Although in fairness the members, while shooting for the deal at the very end in some polling, probably really are better reflected by the Bakers and Francois of the world than the others.
We know that is bollocks because even people who did vote leave in 2016, but do not back no deal, are stated to not be trying to deliver Brexit by the hardliners.
Believing in Brexit, voting for Brexit in 2016, is not enough to satisfy them, in the same way even the softest of Brexits would never have satisfied their counterpart, Grieve. Given only backing for specific types of Brexit does, the assertion that a leaver must be leader and then it would/will be ok, falls down for the falsehood it is.
>
> I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Trump is now dragging Kim Jong Un into his election campaign.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1132413516063870977?s=21
>
> Swamp-man ?
Maybe he’s confusing him with John Kerry and Vietnam?
> > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
>
> It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump.
Most of them even preferred Cruz to Trump
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > Trump is now dragging Kim Jong Un into his election campaign.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1132413516063870977
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Swamp-man ?
>
>
>
> Maybe he’s confusing him with John Kerry and Vietnam?
>
> Swamp-man as in the Washington D.C swamp of 'drain the swamp' fame, I suspect.
Going back to the greatest hits playlist....
> BF is back.
>
> I can now see my Truss position.
Just as long as we can't....
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
> ---------------------------------------------
> A slip of the keyboard, or have you changed from thinking Macron is likely to do so, to merely that he might?
>
Macron made quite clear last week he would not allow Brexit to 'pollute the EU' in his words any further beyond October, from then it is No Deal or Revoke if the Commons has not yet passed the Withdrawal Agreement
> Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.
Just think, if he becomes Prime Minister we can probably indirectly blame Angus Deayton.
> > @kle4 said:
> > Is he bluffing or does he mean it, that is the question. The problem with May wasn't what she said early on, it was that she was lying when she said it and the EU called her bluff.
> >
> > Boris meaning it is not the issue, it's whether parliament would accept meaning it.
>
> If it doesn't, deselect anyone who goes against policy and call a General Election.
>
> If Grieve and co VONC the government they'll have deselected themselves.
Boris (or whoever) will not inherit a Conservative majority government, remember, so it would be brave to start expelling MPs, and courageous to call an election soon after a poor showing in the local elections and a (forecast) near wipeout in the Euros. In any case, if you look at who kept voting against the government on Brexit, you will find Boris's supporters, not his opponents.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Boris has been unimpressive for a number of years now. Arguably he peaked when he won the London mayoralty for a second time.
>
> Just think, if he becomes Prime Minister we can probably indirectly blame Angus Deayton.
Coke and whores have consequences. Usually not quite that wide-ranging, but nonetheless.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
> > >
> > > ++++++++++
> > >
> > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
> > >
> > > Also, unicorns.
> > >
> > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
> > >
> > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
> > >
> > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
> > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
> > >
> > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
> >
> > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
> >
> > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
>
> Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers.
>
> You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election.
>
> As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > >
> > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
> >
> > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
>
> The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump.
>
> Most of them even preferred Cruz to Trump
Yet now they have Trump, they are content since Trump lets them get on with their own policies. There will be no GOP Establishment challenger to Trump next year.
> @HYUFD said:
> Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
>
> ++++++++
>
> "obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October"
>
> So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader?
>
> Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
The Withdrawal Agreement has been done, amending the backstop should not take long at all and then can be quickly passed through the Commons
Now, I am wondering whether this is a plot involving another candidate.
All the counts I have been to, you need a ticket, in advance, which has been signed off by a party and the agent etc etc.
I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM.
Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well.
The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015.
Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10.
They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return.
If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
> > > >
> > > > ++++++++++
> > > >
> > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
> > > >
> > > > Also, unicorns.
> > > >
> > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
> > > >
> > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
> > > >
> > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
> > > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
> > > >
> > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
> > >
> > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
> > >
> > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
> >
> > Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers.
> >
> > You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election.
> >
> > As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
>
> There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
>
> If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
And the end of the conservative party and brexit. All over for Boris and the hard liners
> > @rottenborough said:
> >
> > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
>
> It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
Anybody else relieved that Dick Cheney isn't the VP right now?
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132418063356309505
>
>
>
> More nonsense implying if only people believed in it things would have gone, and will go, just fine.
>
> We know that is bollocks because even people who did vote leave in 2016, but do not back no deal, are stated to not be trying to deliver Brexit by the hardliners.
>
> Believing in Brexit, voting for Brexit in 2016, is not enough to satisfy them, in the same way even the softest of Brexits would never have satisfied their counterpart, Grieve. Given only backing for specific types of Brexit does, the assertion that a leaver must be leader and then it would/will be ok, falls down for the falsehood it is.
As I have said before I think it is more complex than that but in the case of May the basic accusation is correct. The lack of belief is combined with or results in a lack of understanding. May seems to have believed that the only point of Brexit was to cut immigration. As such she made decisions which were bound to end up with very little support because they ignored or relegated other key concerns about the EU which were just as important if not more so than the immigration debate.
Had one of the Leave Ministers been the one who took over from Cameron I believe they would have had a far better insight into what it was that drove the Leave vote and would not have made so many basic mistakes based on ignorance.
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > Boris can and likely will beat Corbyn and Farage and obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October or revoke and of course Macron might veto the former anyway
>
> >
>
> > ++++++++
>
> >
>
> > "obviously no Tory leader would survive further extension beyond October"
>
> >
>
> > So, you think that if negotiations dragged on until (say) November 5, then it would be tickets for the Tory leader?
>
> >
>
> > Surely, it's all a case of "it depends". If the Withdrawal Agreement is ripped up, and a new framework is put in its place, then we're simply not leaving in October. The only deal that could get agreed in the six weeks between the end of the summer holidays and the deadline is one where the word "withdrawal" is replaced with the word "exit".
>
>
>
> The Withdrawal Agreement has been done, amending the backstop should not take long at all and then can be quickly passed through the Commons
>
> The EU has no incentive to do so especially when remain is still pushing so hard.
The UK is still the EU's largest export destination and the Brexit Party winning tomorrow will show there is no fear surge to Remain in the UK.
The EU will not scrap a backstop but they might amend elements of it to enable a more technical solution
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Oh what fun we're going to have with the Con leadership election!
>
> Don't forget Vince and the Lib Dems
>
> Then if labour have any sense !!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah but no one does duplicity, back-stabbing and downright nastiness quite like the Tories in a leadership contest.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
> > > > >
> > > > > ++++++++++
> > > > >
> > > > > Basically, almost all the candidates are standing on the premise that "the EU are bluffing".
> > > > >
> > > > > Also, unicorns.
> > > > >
> > > > > Let's imagine for a second that the EU aren't bluffing.
> > > > >
> > > > > So, we get to about September 1st and Johnson realises that the EU isn't bluffing. And there's eight weeks left.
> > > > >
> > > > > If he goes all out for No Deal, he loses Grieve, Greening and others, and is VoNCed.
> > > > > If he folds, he loses Francois and Baker.
> > > > >
> > > > > The parliamentary arithmetic remains such that the government has neither the votes for May's deal, not the votes for No Deal. And the Labour Party doesn't seem keen to help hold the Conservative Party together.
> > > >
> > > > The Labour Party is about to split over EUref2 anyway.
> > > >
> > > > The vast majority of Tory members prefer the Deal as is or amended or No Deal to revoke or EUref2 or further extension so the next Tory leader just needs to support those
> > >
> > > Yes, but none of those things affect parliamentary numbers.
> > >
> > > You need c. 320 MPs to prefer your outcome to a General Election.
> > >
> > > As I said in the previous piece, almost all the Conservative Party candidates (with the exceptions of Patel and Stewart) are basically promising unicorns.
> >
> > There is a majority in the Commons for the Withdrawal Agreement with the backstop replaced by a technical solution as the passage of the Brady amendment showed.
> >
> > If the EU does not compromise on that then we go to No Deal in October, with a general election to get a mandate for it if needed
>
> And the end of the conservative party and brexit. All over for Boris and the hard liners
Nope, Opinium last weekend had No Deal preferred by voters to revoke and further extension combined.
The only end for the Conservative Party would be to extend again without a Deal agreed or amended, in which case the Brexit Party would overtake it
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > >
> > > > I do hope that when this is all over, and assuming we live to tell the tale, that the US Constitution is amended to have better safeguards against someone who is clearly mentally ill being in office.
> > >
> > > It suits many in the GOP to have a malleable front man bringing in votes while they get on with their own taxcutting or neocon agendas. Trump follows GWB and Reagan in that regard. Trump is actually more moderate than his party on some issues, including Iran, gun control and abortion.
> >
> > The GOP establishment wanted Jeb Bush or Rubio, not Trump.
> >
> > Most of them even preferred Cruz to Trump
>
> Yet now they have Trump, they are content since Trump lets them get on with their own policies. There will be no GOP Establishment challenger to Trump next year.
Kasich is likely to challenge Trump
> What are the chances of the new Tory leader calling an immediate general election for September or October?
Doubt whoever it is would want to face defeat a few weeks into the job
> surprise surprise, Farage is already going for Boris by the jugular, saying you can't trust him. No way will there be any kind of brexit party pact. Farage can smell a route to genuine political power but he needs to destroy the tories for it to happen. He will always be able to argue for a stronger form of brexit and brand Boris, Raab, Baker as not being pure enough.
The Tories won a majority in 2015 despite Farage's party getting 12%.
It is only failing to deliver Brexit that really makes Farage a threat to the Tories
> Trump's really shit the bed with that latest tweet I think.
No, it fits with Trump's image as the tough guy who can negotiate with other tough guys who would roll over other American leaders.
This scraped through because some of the Tories just voted for it knowing it can’t be delivered .
It was a faux show of so called unity . Now it’s held up as if Moses himself engraved it on a tablet of stone .
MPs won’t agree on anything . If a new PM wants a WTO exit they’ll end up putting it to a public vote to avoid responsibility for the ensuing car crash .
So the idea that a leaver would not have made basic errors through lack of understanding is a total irrelevance since those mistakes did not stop many many leavers supporting Mays' deal, yet most of those who did will be deemed as unacceptable as a remainer. Gove voted leave, would he be a suitable leaver leader in the eyes of the hold outs? No. It would change from 'it must be a leaver' to 'but not that one' very soon, proving being a leaver is not the actual desire.
Many things are complex but I dont think this is one of them. A soft leaver would be no better than a remainer to many, so no, a leaver would not be the key criteria, they'd have to the thr right kind of leaver - that's what the actions of mps demonstrates.
Good night.
> @rcs1000
> I think the No Deal pronouncements are aimed at the Tory membership. Chances are the final two will have to go to the party to decide who will be PM.
>
> Now that Farage has been forced out of semi retirement by Tory indiscipline and incompetence (they should just have got us out of the EU and not botched it so badly in Westminster) Farage won't be leaving the stage any time soon. Instead he will be prowling the grounds of Westminster waiting to make hay over any sign of Tory wavering or weakness over withdrawal negotiated or not. If the EU results are anywhere close to the pre poll polling then he will have strong platform to work from as well.
>
> The only Brexiteerrs who will be really worried about Cameron and Osborne will be those in the Tory Party because all that EU flip flopping and failure under Dave (the Junkers vote was priceless) was the real making of UKIP. It was under Dave that despite all their faults UKIP began to break through and in reality it took all the cheating and dirty tricks that George and CCHQ could muster to stop UKIP in 2015.
>
> Farage has already learned from that experience with the positioning of his new party but seemingly the Tories have learned very little. As for Dave and George (aka Mr Popular) and his most attractive sneer, I'm sure their greatest hits of the Aid Budget, the Happiness Index, the Libya and Syria adventures, The London Riots, The Police Commissioner Elections, The Student Fee Demonstrations and many other moments of political mastery along with the ongoing Broken Tories narrative they failed to fix and of course the Referendum they were never supposed to lose will keep their opponents busy taunting them and their Tory colleagues ad infinitum and the concept of a return to Bullingdon Boys will be far too tempting to resist especially with Boris in No. 10.
>
> They say never go back but George and Dave were never any good at political strategy and generally excelled in turning victory into a relative defeat so I suspect at some point they will return.
>
> If I were at CCHQ I'd probably suggest that definitely George but possibly Dave as well sign up for Change UK because it seems to me that they are the true heirs to Blair!
George and Dave, of course, the ones who won the only Tory majority in the last 27 years, were never any good at political strategy.
Do carry on.
Edit: Goodness. I'm sounding like @TSE.