> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @JackW said: > > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party. > > > > It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates. > > > > And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people. > > In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola.
I suppose a Tory Leadership election is a bit like watching roaches climb the wall.
> I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons?
I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate. > > > > > > > > > > > > What if he gets some momentum? > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033 > > > > > > > > > > > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher. > > > > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > > > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions. > > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons? > > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
I don't know. I am not sure how you even judge it. Gove was lauded by prison staff and reform groups for his work as Justice Minister but I not sure if he made any measurable difference. I suspect the same will apply to Stewart.
What I do know is that simply pratting about and playing politics whilst writing about how wonderful you are - yes I am looking at you Mr Johnson - is certainly not going to solve any problems at all.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @JackW said: > > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party. > > > > It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates. > > > > And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people. > > In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola.
> @SandyRentool said: > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again. > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running.
So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running. Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot.
Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
> @RobD said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What if he gets some momentum? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher. > > > > > > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > > > > > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions. > > > > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons? > > > > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it. > > Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient.
> @Benpointer said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @JackW said: > > > > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party. > > > > > > > > It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates. > > > > > > > > And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people. > > > > In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola. > > > > I suppose a Tory Leadership election is a bit like watching roaches climb the wall.
Unfortunately we can't call our Dad to stop it all.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot. > > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
> @Benpointer said: > > @RobD said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > > > > > > > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What if he gets some momentum? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher. > > > > > > > > > > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > > > > > > > > > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions. > > > > > > > > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons? > > > > > > > > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it. > > > > Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them? > > I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient.
Yes, managing people, not trying to fix everything themselves.
> Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
Well you can't just tell people to "fix the problem" you have to choose between different approaches that they might use and form relationships so that subordinates trust you and will help you.
If he couldn't do that in his leadership role as Prisons Minister then, while he might still be better than all the other candidates, it's not looking particularly promising.
I was not impressed with Rory sowing divisions but admit I was a little naive.
I do not want Boris, nor would either my wife or I vote for him, and in view of tonights press it does look like a get Boris campaign is under way and I hope it succeeds. If Boris won through and he appointed a unity cabinet I would support the cabinet as I am not willing to let Corbyn just walk into no 10 but it is far from my hopes
I think Michael Gove is gaining momentum and there is a way to go. However, I discount Brady, Baker, Cleverly, Harper and Hancock as having any chance of nomination.
Maybe a full on public argument between both the leavers and remainers is needed and to see how public opinion moves. I really hope the Lib Dems and remain parties score a convincing win over TBP tomorrow night
> @dixiedean said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again. > > > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running. > > So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running. > Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
> @Benpointer said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot. > > > > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer? > > How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
> > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons? > > > > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it. > > I don't know. I am not sure how you even judge it. Gove was lauded by prison staff and reform groups for his work as Justice Minister but I not sure if he made any measurable difference. I suspect the same will apply to Stewart. > > What I do know is that simply pratting about and playing politics whilst writing about how wonderful you are - yes I am looking at you Mr Johnson - is certainly not going to solve any problems at all.
I think Stewart set himself quite a specific target on violence in a specified set of Prisons. Here it is. Mid-August.
So in the unlikely - and to my mind very welcome - event that Stewart becomes the next Conservative leader in mid-July, he could be facing calls to stand by his pledge and resign just one month later...
> @Benpointer said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again. > > > > > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running. > > > > So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running. > > Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places. > > It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
If the next tory leader can't deliver brexit, the subsequent leader won't have much left to salvage.
> @RobD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @RobD said: > > > Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them? > > > > I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient. > > Yes, managing people, not trying to fix everything themselves.
> @BillyBlake said: . "But the Brexit Party aren't really a party in the traditional sense, are they? They don't really have any policies outside of their four pledges on Brexit, and they seem more like a movement or, if I was to be uncharitable, a personality cult." > > When most legislation is driven by a need to service our unsustainable public sector or is passed down by the EU, other international organisations (G20, NATO, UN) or international events and when our public finances are in such a poor situation NO party has any real policies or should really be considered 'traditional'. . > > And as you ARE being uncharitable better a personality cult that would set our politics (and our trade) free to develop the policies and markets that this country need than a bunch of zombie parties (who cannot see how dead they actually are) that are content on being their European masters doormats by implementing one size fits all dictats from Brussels.
It's pieces like this that make me regret my Leave vote.
> @Benpointer said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot. > > > > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer? > > How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
> @williamglenn said: > Cameron considering a comeback?? ---------------------------------- No.
A lot of remainers still blame him for allowing the referendum in the first place, even though he told us not to vote for or it, or for jumping away to leave others to deal with it, and Leavers are hardly likely to think the guy who campaigned for remain will get us out of this mess.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > I was not impressed with Rory sowing divisions but admit I was a little naive.
Well yeah. It is not sowing division for a start, it is talking about the divisions we can all see. It's like how people used to deny, with a straight face, that there were Brown/Blair tensions, just an insult to all of us.
> @maaarsh said: > Anyone as self confident as Rory Stewart lacks the sort of reflective inner life which to my mind defines true humanity. > > One of the low on whom assurance sits.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @BillyBlake said: > . "But the Brexit Party aren't really a party in the traditional sense, are they? They don't really have any policies outside of their four pledges on Brexit, and they seem more like a movement or, if I was to be uncharitable, a personality cult." > > > > When most legislation is driven by a need to service our unsustainable public sector or is passed down by the EU, other international organisations (G20, NATO, UN) or international events and when our public finances are in such a poor situation NO party has any real policies or should really be considered 'traditional'. . > > > > And as you ARE being uncharitable better a personality cult that would set our politics (and our trade) free to develop the policies and markets that this country need than a bunch of zombie parties (who cannot see how dead they actually are) that are content on being their European masters doormats by implementing one size fits all dictats from Brussels. > > It's pieces like this that make me regret my Leave vote.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot. > > > > > > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer? > > > > How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot? > > You only need a proposer and a seconder, so two.
Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean?
It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?
> @kle4 said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > I was not impressed with Rory sowing divisions but admit I was a little naive. > > Well yeah. It is not sowing division for a start, it is talking about the divisions we can all see. It's like how people used to deny, with a straight face, that there were Brown/Blair tensions, just an insult to all of us. >
> @AndyJS said: > > @maaarsh said: > > Anyone as self confident as Rory Stewart lacks the sort of reflective inner life which to my mind defines true humanity. > > > > One of the low on whom assurance sits. > > He went to Eton so he ought to be self-confident.
And the rest of us should learn not to fall for it.
In an alternative universe, old Etonians thinking of standing for the Conservative leadership would say: "I think we've had a fair crack of the whip over the years at this job, let's give someone else a chance this time".
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
> @AndyJS said: > In an alternative universe, old Etonians thinking of standing for the Conservative leadership would say: "I think we've had a fair crack of the whip over the years at this job, let's give someone else a chance this time".
Of course, because it is always wise to hold them responsible for the choices their parents made at least 20 years before.
It is fair to judge people on their records and behaviours as adults - but not to disqualify them because of a choice their parents made.
> @Pauly said: > > @JackW said: > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party. > > I bet he truly believes he's the "unity man". Now he's machine gunning his own side. Urghh.
----------------------------------- Ok, it doesn't make sense to talk of unity then attack the other side, but let's be real about this, none of them can credidly claim to be unity candidates because May tried damn hard over and over to keep the warring factions on side and it is one reason she was so useless, because there is no unity to be had between, say, Dominic Grieve and Steve Baker.
Now, if someone is to tell me that unity can be found among almost all Tory MPs (never mind Tory members), I'd point out that all but around 30 voted for May's deal in the end, which is about as unified as they could possibly get - what solution, what leadership vision, is going to end up with fewer than 30 intractables?
> @Benpointer said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @SandyRentool said: > > > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again. > > > > > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running. > > > > So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running. > > Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places. > > It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
Indeed. Otherwise they might as well abandon all hope of remainer votes. And have no one to turn to if and when it goes tits up. Greening should run imho. She won't win obviously, but there are many more Tory MPs who would back her in a secret ballot than would do publicly I wager.
all over for Rory - too much mummy and daddy money won't help him - why is it so hard to post here took me 5 mins to write this? Go #priti real Britain
Rory Stewart presented a two part documentary series based on the concept that Britain is artificially divided into England and Scotland and only became this way due to Hadrian's wall. To prove this thesis he presents a history of all the kingdoms that spanned the wall and where in no way divided by its presence.
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @AndyJS said: > > In an alternative universe, old Etonians thinking of standing for the Conservative leadership would say: "I think we've had a fair crack of the whip over the years at this job, let's give someone else a chance this time". > > Of course, because it is always wise to hold them responsible for the choices their parents made at least 20 years before. > > It is fair to judge people on their records and behaviours as adults - but not to disqualify them because of a choice their parents made.
You can, without holding them responsible for any perceived crime of their parents, recognise a pattern of people from that school over-rating their abilities and having excess confidence to push themselves forward. That kind of profiling can sometimes be grossly unfair, but until there's a better way of judging books, most of us will look at the cover.
> @Ave_it said: > all over for Rory - too much mummy and daddy money won't help him - why is it so hard to post here took me 5 mins to write this? > Go #priti real Britain >
Personally I'm more aggrieved that no one will challenge Corbyn - with the Conservatives and LDs being so kind as to give us leadership contests it really would be most convenient if Labour obliged as well, just so that question is definitely settled for the summer recess. It mostly is anyway, unless tomorrow is really really really bad I guess, and he does something stupid like come out for no deal, but would be nice to stop any whispers by sorting it out now.
The Brexit Party is not running with a manifesto because immediately after leaving without a deal the UK would be firefighting for a few years trying to keep the show running as close to normal as was.
> @Benpointer said: > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time... > > It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
In the fantasy world where that many candidates stand, no candidates withdraw, and the frequency of votes is left unchanged, then yes, that is possible.
> @Benpointer said: > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time... > > It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
Farage is spot on that Boris can't be trusted (If one wants to leave without a deal) over Brexit. A man very fond of the project. Of course Rory's critisicm of him is correct too if you take him at his word.
> @Alistair said: > Rory Stewart presented a two part documentary series based on the concept that Britain is artificially divided into England and Scotland and only became this way due to Hadrian's wall. To prove this thesis he presents a history of all the kingdoms that spanned the wall and where in no way divided by its presence. > > He may be clever but he's also an idiot.
If he had actually done that you would be right. But he didn't and you clearly didn't understand what he was saying in the documentary at all.
> @FF43 said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate. > > > What if he gets some momentum? > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033 > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher. > > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > ========= > > Maybe Rory Stewart is the new Blair. This is the Clause 4 moment. Convince the Tory Party that a closely held tenet - Brexit - does them no good.
------------------ A 'deep lack of seriousness' says the man appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.... I call it a deep lack of self-awareness.
> > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean? > > It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?<
++++
I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
It's like UK politicians don't actually take UK politics seriously. It's all a game to them. Yet it REALLY isn't a game. As we see. Lives and nations depend on people taking this stuff seriously.
Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion.
I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart.
If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
> @kle4 said: > > @Pauly said: > > > @JackW said: > > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party. > > > > I bet he truly believes he's the "unity man". Now he's machine gunning his own side. Urghh. > > ----------------------------------- > Ok, it doesn't make sense to talk of unity then attack the other side, but let's be real about this, none of them can credidly claim to be unity candidates because May tried damn hard over and over to keep the warring factions on side and it is one reason she was so useless, because there is no unity to be had between, say, Dominic Grieve and Steve Baker. > > Now, if someone is to tell me that unity can be found among almost all Tory MPs (never mind Tory members), I'd point out that all but around 30 voted for May's deal in the end, which is about as unified as they could possibly get - what solution, what leadership vision, is going to end up with fewer than 30 intractables? >
--------------------------- The Brady amendment did; which is why he probably ought to be leader (but won't be).
> @Mortimer said: > Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see: > > Hammond > Letwin > IDS > Fox > Grayling > > Which makes me think it really is very open. > > Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
Given that there is no way of knowing for certain who really backs any given candidate, I imagine a fair few MPs will just keep quiet at least in any public way that leads back to Guido or anyone else keeping a tally.
@Richard_Tyndall said: I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
+++++++++++
I don't have a vote. (What with not being a member of any political party, and living in Los Angeles and all...)
Nevertheless, his point is a sensible one.
The main reason I voted Leave was because I felt that the EU had allowed our political class to abrogate responsibility for decisions.
To make politicians accountable, they need to have actual power. They need to be seen to be elected by us. And we need to be able to choose different ones, if we don't like the decisions they take.
And politicians can't just say "a big boy did it and ran away".
> @Byronic said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath. > > > > Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean? > > > > It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?< > > ++++ > > I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are. > > It's like UK politicians don't actually take UK politics seriously. It's all a game to them. Yet it REALLY isn't a game. As we see. Lives and nations depend on people taking this stuff seriously. > > Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion. > > I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart.
> @Benpointer said: > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time... > > It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
Talk of 3 a day apparently as a date of the 18th June was mentioned for the final 2
> @Byronic said: > I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
It's not glib to read expert advice on the meaning of a legal text instead of the the actual legal text. It's just sensible, unless you suspect the experts preparing the explanations are trying to trick you for some reason.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Benpointer said: > > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time... > > > > It could be three months before the final two are put to members! > > Talk of 3 a day apparently as a date of the 18th June was mentioned for the final 2 > > Not sure how true to be fair but seems probable
> @Mortimer said: > Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see: > > Hammond > Letwin > IDS > Fox > Grayling > > Which makes me think it really is very open. > > Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
> @edmundintokyo said: > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
> @Mortimer said: > Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see: > > Hammond > Letwin > IDS > Fox > Grayling > > Which makes me think it really is very open. > > Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
> @HYUFD said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset. > > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
> @HYUFD said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset. > > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
What Boris wants changes from moment to moment. What you say that Boris wants is also starting to change!
> @HYUFD said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @MikeL said: > > > Gove now leading declarations: > > > > > > Gove 17 > > > Raab 14 > > > Johnson 13 > > > Hunt 13 > > > Javid 8 > > > Hancock 6 > > > McVey 5 > > > Harper 4 > > > Leadsom 2 > > > Baker 1 > > > Cleverley 1 > > > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
> @Mortimer said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > Anecdote: > > > > We went to Peterborough this afternoon, and in the city centre saw a small UKIP stand manned by two old geezers (one of whom was wearing the worst Union Jack jacket imaginable (*)). Then, in the main shopping centre, there were a bunch of teenagers handing out Brexit Party literature - acting more like they belonged to some form of evangelical outing than a political party. > > > > There were no other parties visible. This is, of course, immediately after the European Elections, but there is a by-election coming up in Peterborough. > > > > (*) And no, this is not an unpatriotic thing to say. It wasn't that he was wrapping himself in the flag; it was that it looked terrible. > > I wouldn’t be at all surprised if TBP won on Thursday.
Paul Bristow had an action day for the Tories in Peterborough took today I know
A 'deep lack of seriousness' says the man appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.... I call it a deep lack of self-awareness.
I don't see the connection. Whether one liked his answer or not regardless of the event he was asked a serious question and he gave what he considered to be a serious answer, I don't think it's worth or lack thereof would be diminished by the locale.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Mortimer said: > > > @MikeL said: > > > Gove now leading declarations: > > > > > > Gove 17 > > > Raab 14 > > > Johnson 13 > > > Hunt 13 > > > Javid 8 > > > Hancock 6 > > > McVey 5 > > > Harper 4 > > > Leadsom 2 > > > Baker 1 > > > Cleverley 1 > > > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
-----------------
And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21).
> @HYUFD said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset. > > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
No Deal is at least a coherent doable policy. If insane. Since there is no avowedly Revoke candidate as yet, may we take it as read that all the others will be running on a "we do X and Y, and the EU will panic and give us what we want" platform?
> If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
> If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
Yes, because no one in government tried to persuade the EU to 'amend' the backstop any number of ways before.
He wants to reassure people he will not immediately go for no deal, while knowing he is chasing a unicorn, he's dishonest.
> @kle4 said: > ------------------ > > A 'deep lack of seriousness' says the man appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.... I call it a deep lack of self-awareness. > > I don't see the connection. Whether one liked his answer or not regardless of the event he was asked a serious question and he gave what he considered to be a serious answer, I don't think it's worth or lack thereof would be diminished by the locale.
------------------------ I question the judgement of anyone appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.
> @TudorRose said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Mortimer said: > > > > @MikeL said: > > > > Gove now leading declarations: > > > > > > > > Gove 17 > > > > Raab 14 > > > > Johnson 13 > > > > Hunt 13 > > > > Javid 8 > > > > Hancock 6 > > > > McVey 5 > > > > Harper 4 > > > > Leadsom 2 > > > > Baker 1 > > > > Cleverley 1 > > > > > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > > > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP > > > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together > > ----------------- > > And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21).
Javid hates Hunt, there will be no pact between them
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @Byronic said: > > I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are. > > It's not glib to read expert advice on the meaning of a legal text instead of the the actual legal text. It's just sensible, unless you suspect the experts preparing the explanations are trying to trick you for some reason.<
++++
Perhaps (I dispute your point, tho I will let it lie). More importantly, as a politician you REALLY shouldn't ever EXULT in your indifference to issues that REALLY matter to a large proportion of your party, your members, and your voters.
That's why the europhile Tories, who until quite recently constituted a major element in the party, if not a majority, have been reduced to a tiny, shrivelled, and unpleasantly severed electoral foreskin, otherwise known as Dominic Grieve QC, MP.
> @HYUFD said: > > @TudorRose said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Mortimer said: > > > > > @MikeL said: > > > > > Gove now leading declarations: > > > > > > > > > > Gove 17 > > > > > Raab 14 > > > > > Johnson 13 > > > > > Hunt 13 > > > > > Javid 8 > > > > > Hancock 6 > > > > > McVey 5 > > > > > Harper 4 > > > > > Leadsom 2 > > > > > Baker 1 > > > > > Cleverley 1 > > > > > > > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0 > > > > > > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP > > > > > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together > > > > ----------------- > > > > And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21). > > Javid hates Hunt, there will be no pact between them
But he hates Boris more.... and therein you have politics!
> > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
> >
> > I bet he truly believes he's the "unity man". Now he's machine gunning his own side. Urghh.
>
> -----------------------------------
> Ok, it doesn't make sense to talk of unity then attack the other side, but let's be real about this, none of them can credidly claim to be unity candidates because May tried damn hard over and over to keep the warring factions on side and it is one reason she was so useless, because there is no unity to be had between, say, Dominic Grieve and Steve Baker.
>
> Now, if someone is to tell me that unity can be found among almost all Tory MPs (never mind Tory members), I'd point out that all but around 30 voted for May's deal in the end, which is about as unified as they could possibly get - what solution, what leadership vision, is going to end up with fewer than 30 intractables?
>
---------------------------
The Brady amendment did; which is why he probably ought to be leader (but won't be).
The problem is the Brady amendment passed, but it's the getting the EU to agree that's the hold up, which means anyone advocating it is probably going to have to rely on their backup plan, which in most cases will be no deal. Which is fine, at least they are clear, but we've been moaning about the backstop for more than half a year, we might as well just go to plan B at this point.
> @JackW said: > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
> > > > Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion. > > > > I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart. > > But ever so posh Rees-Mogg and Johnson were fine? <#
++++
No, they are utter twats as well. Brexit has exposed the entire Tory party, and indeed all our governing classes - from Corbyn to Cash, from McDonnell to May - as lightweight, idiotic, horribly spasticated buffoons, shysters, chancers and gits.
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > > > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > > > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset. > > > > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support > > No Deal is at least a coherent doable policy. If insane. Since there is no avowedly Revoke candidate as yet, may we take it as read that all the others will be running on a "we do X and Y, and the EU will panic and give us what we want" platform?
Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
They've essentially said they want all the MP votes done and dusted by the end of June have they not? I'm sure you jest as well, since I think we can be pretty confident some of those near the bottom will concede after a few rounds.
> > We went to Peterborough this afternoon, and in the city centre saw a small UKIP stand manned by two old geezers (one of whom was wearing the worst Union Jack jacket imaginable (*)). Then, in the main shopping centre, there were a bunch of teenagers handing out Brexit Party literature - acting more like they belonged to some form of evangelical outing than a political party.
> >
> > There were no other parties visible. This is, of course, immediately after the European Elections, but there is a by-election coming up in Peterborough.
> >
> > (*) And no, this is not an unpatriotic thing to say. It wasn't that he was wrapping himself in the flag; it was that it looked terrible.
>
> I wouldn’t be at all surprised if TBP won on Thursday.
Paul Bristow had an action day for the Tories in Peterborough took today I know
A shame for the candidate there - might even have had a chance, remarkably, had Brexit occurred.
> @kle4 said: > > @edmundintokyo said: > > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > > > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said: > > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs. > > > > > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot. > > > > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset. > > > > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support > > Yes, because no one in government tried to persuade the EU to 'amend' the backstop any number of ways before. > > He wants to reassure people he will not immediately go for no deal, while knowing he is chasing a unicorn, he's dishonest.
Boris is shameless enough to do a few minor tweaks to do the backstop with Barnier call it 'The great UK Irish gateway' or something similar and get away with it
Comments
> https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1132391849853968393
But you voted for May's deal 3 times, Loathsome.
Full of shite, just like the rest of them.
> > @JackW said:
>
> > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
>
>
>
> It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates.
>
>
>
> And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people.
>
> In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola.
I suppose a Tory Leadership election is a bit like watching roaches climb the wall.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > >
> > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > What if he gets some momentum?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
> > >
> > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
> >
> > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
>
> When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons?
>
> I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
I don't know. I am not sure how you even judge it. Gove was lauded by prison staff and reform groups for his work as Justice Minister but I not sure if he made any measurable difference. I suspect the same will apply to Stewart.
What I do know is that simply pratting about and playing politics whilst writing about how wonderful you are - yes I am looking at you Mr Johnson - is certainly not going to solve any problems at all.
> > @JackW said:
>
> > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
>
>
>
> It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates.
>
>
>
> And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people.
>
> In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola.
and then in 30 seconds time...?
> It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again.
>
> BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running.
So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running.
Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > >
>
> > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > What if he gets some momentum?
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
>
> > >
>
> > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
>
> >
>
> > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
>
>
>
> When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons?
>
>
>
> I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
>
> Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @JackW said:
> >
> > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
> >
> >
> >
> > It will be interesting to see how old-Etonians there are amongst Tory leadership candidates.
> >
> >
> >
> > And I bet they will each be proclaiming that only they can truly be the voice of the common people.
> >
> > In that case I'll have a rum and coca-cola.
>
>
>
> I suppose a Tory Leadership election is a bit like watching roaches climb the wall.
Unfortunately we can't call our Dad to stop it all.
> There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot.
>
> Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > What if he gets some momentum?
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
> >
> >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
> >
> >
> >
> > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons?
> >
> >
> >
> > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
> >
> > Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
>
> I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient.
Yes, managing people, not trying to fix everything themselves.
> Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
Well you can't just tell people to "fix the problem" you have to choose between different approaches that they might use and form relationships so that subordinates trust you and will help you.
If he couldn't do that in his leadership role as Prisons Minister then, while he might still be better than all the other candidates, it's not looking particularly promising.
One of the low on whom assurance sits.
I do not want Boris, nor would either my wife or I vote for him, and in view of tonights press it does look like a get Boris campaign is under way and I hope it succeeds. If Boris won through and he appointed a unity cabinet I would support the cabinet as I am not willing to let Corbyn just walk into no 10 but it is far from my hopes
I think Michael Gove is gaining momentum and there is a way to go. However, I discount Brady, Baker, Cleverly, Harper and Hancock as having any chance of nomination.
Maybe a full on public argument between both the leavers and remainers is needed and to see how public opinion moves. I really hope the Lib Dems and remain parties score a convincing win over TBP tomorrow night
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again.
> >
> > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running.
>
> So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running.
> Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot.
> >
> > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
>
> How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
Two
https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1132391640889532418?s=21
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > When do we find out whether he made a difference to violence in Prisons?
> >
> > I'm not trying to make a snarky point here, but if he wasn't able to make progress on that specific problem maybe he's better as someone who can identify the problem with our politics rather than someone who can fix it.
>
> I don't know. I am not sure how you even judge it. Gove was lauded by prison staff and reform groups for his work as Justice Minister but I not sure if he made any measurable difference. I suspect the same will apply to Stewart.
>
> What I do know is that simply pratting about and playing politics whilst writing about how wonderful you are - yes I am looking at you Mr Johnson - is certainly not going to solve any problems at all.
I think Stewart set himself quite a specific target on violence in a specified set of Prisons. Here it is. Mid-August.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45214414
So in the unlikely - and to my mind very welcome - event that Stewart becomes the next Conservative leader in mid-July, he could be facing calls to stand by his pledge and resign just one month later...
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again.
> > >
> > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running.
> >
> > So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running.
> > Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
>
> It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
If the next tory leader can't deliver brexit, the subsequent leader won't have much left to salvage.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > Isn’t it the job of a leader to identify problems and then tell other to fix them?
> >
> > I'd say it's the job of a leader to make sure the priority problems are fixed... 'telling others to fix them' is not sufficient.
>
> Yes, managing people, not trying to fix everything themselves.
Agreed.
. "But the Brexit Party aren't really a party in the traditional sense, are they? They don't really have any policies outside of their four pledges on Brexit, and they seem more like a movement or, if I was to be uncharitable, a personality cult."
>
> When most legislation is driven by a need to service our unsustainable public sector or is passed down by the EU, other international organisations (G20, NATO, UN) or international events and when our public finances are in such a poor situation NO party has any real policies or should really be considered 'traditional'. .
>
> And as you ARE being uncharitable better a personality cult that would set our politics (and our trade) free to develop the policies and markets that this country need than a bunch of zombie parties (who cannot see how dead they actually are) that are content on being their European masters doormats by implementing one size fits all dictats from Brussels.
It's pieces like this that make me regret my Leave vote.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot.
> >
> > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
>
> How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
You only need a proposer and a seconder, so two.
> Cameron considering a comeback??
----------------------------------
No.
A lot of remainers still blame him for allowing the referendum in the first place, even though he told us not to vote for or it, or for jumping away to leave others to deal with it, and Leavers are hardly likely to think the guy who campaigned for remain will get us out of this mess.
> Cameron considering a comeback??
>
> https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1132391640889532418?s=21
Pah - he shouldn't have flounced off if he wanted to keep a comback option open.
> I was not impressed with Rory sowing divisions but admit I was a little naive.
Well yeah. It is not sowing division for a start, it is talking about the divisions we can all see. It's like how people used to deny, with a straight face, that there were Brown/Blair tensions, just an insult to all of us.
> Anyone as self confident as Rory Stewart lacks the sort of reflective inner life which to my mind defines true humanity.
>
> One of the low on whom assurance sits.
He went to Eton so he ought to be self-confident.
> > @BillyBlake said:
> . "But the Brexit Party aren't really a party in the traditional sense, are they? They don't really have any policies outside of their four pledges on Brexit, and they seem more like a movement or, if I was to be uncharitable, a personality cult."
> >
> > When most legislation is driven by a need to service our unsustainable public sector or is passed down by the EU, other international organisations (G20, NATO, UN) or international events and when our public finances are in such a poor situation NO party has any real policies or should really be considered 'traditional'. .
> >
> > And as you ARE being uncharitable better a personality cult that would set our politics (and our trade) free to develop the policies and markets that this country need than a bunch of zombie parties (who cannot see how dead they actually are) that are content on being their European masters doormats by implementing one size fits all dictats from Brussels.
>
> It's pieces like this that make me regret my Leave vote.
Unfortunately, that is what you voted for.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > There are 313 Conservative MPs. If there are 24 candidates for the first MPs ballot then there would be an average of 13 MPs for each candidate - surely lots of potential candidates will realise that they are struggling to win the support of even half a dozen colleagues and withdraw before the first MPs ballot.
> > >
> > > Might we actually only have 10-12 candidates at that stage? Or fewer?
> >
> > How many supporters does an MP need to put their name into the first ballot?
>
> You only need a proposer and a seconder, so two.
Thanks.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
>
>
>
> What if he gets some momentum?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
>
>
>
> Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
>
> She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean?
It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > I was not impressed with Rory sowing divisions but admit I was a little naive.
>
> Well yeah. It is not sowing division for a start, it is talking about the divisions we can all see. It's like how people used to deny, with a straight face, that there were Brown/Blair tensions, just an insult to all of us.
>
Yes I agree
> Cameron considering a comeback??
>
> https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1132391640889532418?s=21
Yeah, because the socially liberally wing of the party is really likely to win the leadership...
> > @maaarsh said:
> > Anyone as self confident as Rory Stewart lacks the sort of reflective inner life which to my mind defines true humanity.
> >
> > One of the low on whom assurance sits.
>
> He went to Eton so he ought to be self-confident.
And the rest of us should learn not to fall for it.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
> What if he gets some momentum?
> https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
> Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
>
> She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
=========
Maybe Rory Stewart is the new Blair. This is the Clause 4 moment. Convince the Tory Party that a closely held tenet - Brexit - does them no good.
> In an alternative universe, old Etonians thinking of standing for the Conservative leadership would say: "I think we've had a fair crack of the whip over the years at this job, let's give someone else a chance this time".
Of course, because it is always wise to hold them responsible for the choices their parents made at least 20 years before.
It is fair to judge people on their records and behaviours as adults - but not to disqualify them because of a choice their parents made.
> > @JackW said:
> > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
>
> I bet he truly believes he's the "unity man". Now he's machine gunning his own side. Urghh.
-----------------------------------
Ok, it doesn't make sense to talk of unity then attack the other side, but let's be real about this, none of them can credidly claim to be unity candidates because May tried damn hard over and over to keep the warring factions on side and it is one reason she was so useless, because there is no unity to be had between, say, Dominic Grieve and Steve Baker.
Now, if someone is to tell me that unity can be found among almost all Tory MPs (never mind Tory members), I'd point out that all but around 30 voted for May's deal in the end, which is about as unified as they could possibly get - what solution, what leadership vision, is going to end up with fewer than 30 intractables?
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @SandyRentool said:
> > > It would be funny as feck if Bozo pulls out before the race even starts again.
> > >
> > > BTW I thought that Rudd's comments were very honest - a Remainer would have no chance with the membership if they made the last two, hence no point running.
> >
> > So they're waving the white flag? Typical. Imagines...what are you thinking Jeremy? No point running.
> > Someone ambitious needs to occupy that space and argue for the very soft Leave/Remain position if Rudd and Hammond can't be bothered to. It is a chance to make their name if nothing else. Otherwise, the argument will drift to ever more ludicrous places.
>
> It's a good point. Tory Remainers should take the long view - the party will be looking for a leader with good Remainer credentials after a few months of No Deal chaos.
Indeed. Otherwise they might as well abandon all hope of remainer votes. And have no one to turn to if and when it goes tits up.
Greening should run imho. She won't win obviously, but there are many more Tory MPs who would back her in a secret ballot than would do publicly I wager.
Go #priti real Britain
He may be clever but he's also an idiot.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > In an alternative universe, old Etonians thinking of standing for the Conservative leadership would say: "I think we've had a fair crack of the whip over the years at this job, let's give someone else a chance this time".
>
> Of course, because it is always wise to hold them responsible for the choices their parents made at least 20 years before.
>
> It is fair to judge people on their records and behaviours as adults - but not to disqualify them because of a choice their parents made.
You can, without holding them responsible for any perceived crime of their parents, recognise a pattern of people from that school over-rating their abilities and having excess confidence to push themselves forward. That kind of profiling can sometimes be grossly unfair, but until there's a better way of judging books, most of us will look at the cover.
> all over for Rory - too much mummy and daddy money won't help him - why is it so hard to post here took me 5 mins to write this?
> Go #priti real Britain
>
You're a slow writer?
Gove 17
Raab 14
Johnson 13
Hunt 13
Javid 8
Hancock 6
McVey 5
Harper 4
Leadsom 2
Baker 1
Cleverley 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
> Gove now leading declarations:
>
> Gove 17
> Raab 14
> Johnson 13
> Hunt 13
> Javid 8
> Hancock 6
> McVey 5
> Harper 4
> Leadsom 2
> Baker 1
> Cleverley 1
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
> Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
>
> It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
In the fantasy world where that many candidates stand, no candidates withdraw, and the frequency of votes is left unchanged, then yes, that is possible.
We have a policy of real email addresses only, given the legal troubles we've had in the past
For that reason please convert your email address to a real one.
> Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
>
> It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
Please don't waste this time!
Of course Rory's critisicm of him is correct too if you take him at his word.
> Rory Stewart presented a two part documentary series based on the concept that Britain is artificially divided into England and Scotland and only became this way due to Hadrian's wall. To prove this thesis he presents a history of all the kingdoms that spanned the wall and where in no way divided by its presence.
>
> He may be clever but he's also an idiot.
If he had actually done that you would be right. But he didn't and you clearly didn't understand what he was saying in the documentary at all.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> >
> > > So Rory Stewart is viewed as a suicide bomber who will take out Boris Johnson before backing another candidate.
>
> > What if he gets some momentum?
> > https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1132291048196268033
> > Rory Stewart would be the new Thatcher.
> >
> > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
>
> =========
>
> Maybe Rory Stewart is the new Blair. This is the Clause 4 moment. Convince the Tory Party that a closely held tenet - Brexit - does them no good.
------------------
A 'deep lack of seriousness' says the man appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.... I call it a deep lack of self-awareness.
> >
> > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
>
> Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean?
>
> It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?<
++++
I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
It's like UK politicians don't actually take UK politics seriously. It's all a game to them. Yet it REALLY isn't a game. As we see. Lives and nations depend on people taking this stuff seriously.
Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion.
I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart.
Hammond
Letwin
IDS
Fox
Grayling
Which makes me think it really is very open.
Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
> > @Pauly said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
> >
> > I bet he truly believes he's the "unity man". Now he's machine gunning his own side. Urghh.
>
> -----------------------------------
> Ok, it doesn't make sense to talk of unity then attack the other side, but let's be real about this, none of them can credidly claim to be unity candidates because May tried damn hard over and over to keep the warring factions on side and it is one reason she was so useless, because there is no unity to be had between, say, Dominic Grieve and Steve Baker.
>
> Now, if someone is to tell me that unity can be found among almost all Tory MPs (never mind Tory members), I'd point out that all but around 30 voted for May's deal in the end, which is about as unified as they could possibly get - what solution, what leadership vision, is going to end up with fewer than 30 intractables?
>
---------------------------
The Brady amendment did; which is why he probably ought to be leader (but won't be).
> Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see:
>
> Hammond
> Letwin
> IDS
> Fox
> Grayling
>
> Which makes me think it really is very open.
>
> Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
Given that there is no way of knowing for certain who really backs any given candidate, I imagine a fair few MPs will just keep quiet at least in any public way that leads back to Guido or anyone else keeping a tally.
https://www.twitter.com/election_data/status/1132381304870309891
> I'd like an outsider like Esther McVey or Priti Patel to be the new leader.
My book would very much like the former...
I do like what he is saying there. Not sure he will get very far but that might in part be because of the very issue he is talking about. Pantomime leaders instead of serious people who have practical solutions.
+++++++++++
I don't have a vote. (What with not being a member of any political party, and living in Los Angeles and all...)
Nevertheless, his point is a sensible one.
The main reason I voted Leave was because I felt that the EU had allowed our political class to abrogate responsibility for decisions.
To make politicians accountable, they need to have actual power. They need to be seen to be elected by us. And we need to be able to choose different ones, if we don't like the decisions they take.
And politicians can't just say "a big boy did it and ran away".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxaxynbf_9E
> > @NickPalmer said:
>
> > >
> > > She stood in 1975 to take out Ted Heath.
> >
> > Just to be different from some of the other comments, I think the interview is awful - exactly as vague and slogan-laden as the politics he professes to despise, rejecting any kind of systematic approach and disavowing any interest in the Ministerial responsibilities that he held, in favour of "bringing politics down to individuals". What does that even mean?
> >
> > It's as bad as Chris Mullin admitting in his book that he didn't bother to read the brief on committee meetings where he was the lead speaker (and yes, I remember some of those meetings and it did show). Why do we bed-block Ministries with these people?<
>
> ++++
>
> I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
>
> It's like UK politicians don't actually take UK politics seriously. It's all a game to them. Yet it REALLY isn't a game. As we see. Lives and nations depend on people taking this stuff seriously.
>
> Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion.
>
> I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart.
But ever so posh Rees-Mogg and Johnson were fine?
I'd like an outsider like Esther McVey or Priti Patel to be the new leader.
+++++
You'd like Priti Patel to be the new Prime Minister?
Why do you hate your fellow Brits?
> Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
>
> It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
Talk of 3 a day apparently as a date of the 18th June was mentioned for the final 2
Not sure how true to be fair but seems probable
> I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
It's not glib to read expert advice on the meaning of a legal text instead of the the actual legal text. It's just sensible, unless you suspect the experts preparing the explanations are trying to trick you for some reason.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > Potentially 25 candidates, two ballots per week with the lowest placed dropping out each time...
> >
> > It could be three months before the final two are put to members!
>
> Talk of 3 a day apparently as a date of the 18th June was mentioned for the final 2
>
> Not sure how true to be fair but seems probable
Would make sense.
> I'd like an outsider like Esther McVey or Priti Patel to be the new leader.
I've been saying this for years...
...as a piss take!
Politics is just totally mental.
Night all.
> Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see:
>
> Hammond
> Letwin
> IDS
> Fox
> Grayling
>
> Which makes me think it really is very open.
>
> Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
Grayling !!!!!
> If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
> If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
> Quite a few of the old guard have not plumped for a candidate yet, as far as I can see:
>
> Hammond
> Letwin
> IDS
> Fox
> Grayling
>
> Which makes me think it really is very open.
>
> Or those listed above might be thinking about running themselves...?
Of those only Fox might run I suspect
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
>
> Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
So why cause confusion
> > @MikeL said:
> > Gove now leading declarations:
> >
> > Gove 17
> > Raab 14
> > Johnson 13
> > Hunt 13
> > Javid 8
> > Hancock 6
> > McVey 5
> > Harper 4
> > Leadsom 2
> > Baker 1
> > Cleverley 1
> >
> > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
>
> Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
>
> Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
What Boris wants changes from moment to moment. What you say that Boris wants is also starting to change!
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @MikeL said:
> > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > >
> > > Gove 17
> > > Raab 14
> > > Johnson 13
> > > Hunt 13
> > > Javid 8
> > > Hancock 6
> > > McVey 5
> > > Harper 4
> > > Leadsom 2
> > > Baker 1
> > > Cleverley 1
> > >
> > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> >
> > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
>
> So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
Hunt is on 27 apparently
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > Anecdote:
> >
> > We went to Peterborough this afternoon, and in the city centre saw a small UKIP stand manned by two old geezers (one of whom was wearing the worst Union Jack jacket imaginable (*)). Then, in the main shopping centre, there were a bunch of teenagers handing out Brexit Party literature - acting more like they belonged to some form of evangelical outing than a political party.
> >
> > There were no other parties visible. This is, of course, immediately after the European Elections, but there is a by-election coming up in Peterborough.
> >
> > (*) And no, this is not an unpatriotic thing to say. It wasn't that he was wrapping himself in the flag; it was that it looked terrible.
>
> I wouldn’t be at all surprised if TBP won on Thursday.
Paul Bristow had an action day for the Tories in Peterborough took today I know
> > @Mortimer said:
> > > @MikeL said:
> > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > >
> > > Gove 17
> > > Raab 14
> > > Johnson 13
> > > Hunt 13
> > > Javid 8
> > > Hancock 6
> > > McVey 5
> > > Harper 4
> > > Leadsom 2
> > > Baker 1
> > > Cleverley 1
> > >
> > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> >
> > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
>
> So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
-----------------
And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21).
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> >
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
> Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
>
> Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
No Deal is at least a coherent doable policy. If insane. Since there is no avowedly Revoke candidate as yet, may we take it as read that all the others will be running on a "we do X and Y, and the EU will panic and give us what we want" platform?
He wants to reassure people he will not immediately go for no deal, while knowing he is chasing a unicorn, he's dishonest.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > @MikeL said:
> > > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > > >
> > > > Gove 17
> > > > Raab 14
> > > > Johnson 13
> > > > Hunt 13
> > > > Javid 8
> > > > Hancock 6
> > > > McVey 5
> > > > Harper 4
> > > > Leadsom 2
> > > > Baker 1
> > > > Cleverley 1
> > > >
> > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> > >
> > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
> >
> > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
>
> Hunt is on 27 apparently
Not on those declarations he isn't
> ------------------
>
> A 'deep lack of seriousness' says the man appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.... I call it a deep lack of self-awareness.
>
> I don't see the connection. Whether one liked his answer or not regardless of the event he was asked a serious question and he gave what he considered to be a serious answer, I don't think it's worth or lack thereof would be diminished by the locale.
------------------------
I question the judgement of anyone appearing at an event called 'Beer and Brexit'.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > @MikeL said:
> > > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > > >
> > > > Gove 17
> > > > Raab 14
> > > > Johnson 13
> > > > Hunt 13
> > > > Javid 8
> > > > Hancock 6
> > > > McVey 5
> > > > Harper 4
> > > > Leadsom 2
> > > > Baker 1
> > > > Cleverley 1
> > > >
> > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> > >
> > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
> >
> > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
>
> -----------------
>
> And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21).
Javid hates Hunt, there will be no pact between them
> > @Byronic said:
> > I agree, it's terrible. But it is no worse than Ken Clarke laughingly saying "of course I didn't read the Maastricht Treaty" before signing it, thus forcing it through. This glib europhile attitude to EU integration is one huge reason we are where we are.
>
> It's not glib to read expert advice on the meaning of a legal text instead of the the actual legal text. It's just sensible, unless you suspect the experts preparing the explanations are trying to trick you for some reason.<
++++
Perhaps (I dispute your point, tho I will let it lie). More importantly, as a politician you REALLY shouldn't ever EXULT in your indifference to issues that REALLY matter to a large proportion of your party, your members, and your voters.
That's why the europhile Tories, who until quite recently constituted a major element in the party, if not a majority, have been reduced to a tiny, shrivelled, and unpleasantly severed electoral foreskin, otherwise known as Dominic Grieve QC, MP.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > > @MikeL said:
> > > > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > > > >
> > > > > Gove 17
> > > > > Raab 14
> > > > > Johnson 13
> > > > > Hunt 13
> > > > > Javid 8
> > > > > Hancock 6
> > > > > McVey 5
> > > > > Harper 4
> > > > > Leadsom 2
> > > > > Baker 1
> > > > > Cleverley 1
> > > > >
> > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> > > >
> > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
> > >
> > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
> >
> > Hunt is on 27 apparently
>
> Not on those declarations he isn't
He is on the one on here a while ago
Conhome site
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Mortimer said:
> > > > > @MikeL said:
> > > > > Gove now leading declarations:
> > > > >
> > > > > Gove 17
> > > > > Raab 14
> > > > > Johnson 13
> > > > > Hunt 13
> > > > > Javid 8
> > > > > Hancock 6
> > > > > McVey 5
> > > > > Harper 4
> > > > > Leadsom 2
> > > > > Baker 1
> > > > > Cleverley 1
> > > > >
> > > > > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
> > > >
> > > > Crikey - I had forgotten that Heald was still an MP
> > >
> > > So on those figures it would be Gove v Raab but very early and Gove, Raab, Johnson and Hunt all close together
> >
> > -----------------
> >
> > And don't forget that the votes will 'roll up' as people get eliminated (so, for example Hunt/Javid in a pact would be on 21).
>
> Javid hates Hunt, there will be no pact between them
But he hates Boris more.... and therein you have politics!
> BBC 5Live - Rory Stewart refuses to rule out voting against a confidence motion in the government in certain circumstances. He says the country comes before the party.
How Kendallesque.
> >
> > Perhaps this attitude is a hangover from the idea of the gifted posh amateur defeating the ugly prole professionals. i.e. It's not enough to succeed, you must succeed "effortlessly". That is the English way. One remembers that scene from Chariots of Fire, where the aristo had champagne glasses balanced on the hurdles he vaulted - without spilling any bubbly. Then back to his mansion.
> >
> > I voted Remain but with grave reservations. One of my major reservations was the insouciant idiocy of posh europhile people like Clarke - and, here, even posher, Stewart.
>
> But ever so posh Rees-Mogg and Johnson were fine? <#
++++
No, they are utter twats as well. Brexit has exposed the entire Tory party, and indeed all our governing classes - from Corbyn to Cash, from McDonnell to May - as lightweight, idiotic, horribly spasticated buffoons, shysters, chancers and gits.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> > >
> > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
> >
> > The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
> > >
> > > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
> >
> > Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
> >
> > Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
>
> No Deal is at least a coherent doable policy. If insane. Since there is no avowedly Revoke candidate as yet, may we take it as read that all the others will be running on a "we do X and Y, and the EU will panic and give us what we want" platform?
Boris and Raab and maybe Gove and Hunt and Javid and McVey snd Leadsom want various options of the Brady amendment, Stewart and Hancock want the Deal as is Baker and Patel if she stands want No Deal
Hunt 27 Johnson 19 Gove 13 Raab 13 Javid 10
> > @edmundintokyo said:
>
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> >
>
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
>
>
> The candidate > @edmundintokyo said:
>
> > If you run on No Deal either you immediately renege or you almost definitely end up with a new election, which you probably lose, in a weird election where even MPs in safe seats may lose their jobs.
>
> >
>
> > I wonder how many Tory MPs are really going to vote for this in a secret ballot. If it's under 1/3 you may get zero headbangers on the ballot.
>
>
>
> Of the likely candidates only Steve Baker will be explicitly for No Deal from the outset.
>
>
>
> Boris simply wants to try and amend the backstop and implement the Brady amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement, the only Brexit option which has got a majority in the current Commons and which has DUP support
>
> Yes, because no one in government tried to persuade the EU to 'amend' the backstop any number of ways before.
>
> He wants to reassure people he will not immediately go for no deal, while knowing he is chasing a unicorn, he's dishonest.
Boris is shameless enough to do a few minor tweaks to do the backstop with Barnier call it
'The great UK Irish gateway' or something similar and get away with it