> @nico67 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time. > > > > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one. > > That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
Where are the figures published, please? My local council has nothing relevant on its website.
> > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time.
> >
> > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one.
>
> That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
Where are the figures published, please? My local council has nothing relevant on its website.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
I think they'll have to void the market. Obviously the correct settlement is June. (Assuming she resigns in June) But as they have been advising people they'll settle on the date a new leader takes over, they are in hot water which ever way they go.
That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed.
Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Wot she said: > > So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen > > https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister > > That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed. > > Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
This sounds right to me. May resigns as leader on 7th June. Whether her resignation on that date results in her immediately ceasing to be leader of the party - or whether she remains leader until her successor is chosen, will be determined by the Tory party rules or rule makers. They could of course clarify this for us all now! Anyone able to determine this through their Tory party links?
> tlg86 > 12:29PM > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
> @tlg86 said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > Wot she said: > > > > So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen > > > > https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister > > > > That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed. > > > > Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous. > > The issue with Betfair is that it appears that they answered the hypothetical question wrongly. That is, they seem to think that there has to be a leader of the Tory Party.
Well, yes. But the market is quite simply stated: "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?". If the party makes it official before the end of June that May is no longer leader, there will then be no ambiguity at all.
What Betfair says about it now merely represents their current best guess. Which is likely to be more sensible oncethey get more information, or think about it for a bit.
> @kevo said: > > tlg86 > > 12:29PM > > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example. > > > According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
What about that row saying "Vacant" between the two John Major rows?
> @kevo said: > > tlg86 > > 12:29PM > > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example. > > > According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
Vacant Prime Minister – John Major 22 June 1995 4 July 1995
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
Just woken up, much happening today or it is a quiet news day while we wait for the euro election counts?
You just missed a very exciting and controversial Formula 2 race at Monaco, the result of which is not likely to be confirmed for a few hours yet. Not sure there’s anything else going on.
I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
Sarcasm aside, that is as it should be. People have got money riding on this.
I wouldn't read too much into the news that Remain leaning constituencies has higher relative turnout than Leave ones, nor assume higher LD votes and lower BP votes than predicted by polls.
Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas.
Secondly, the polls already have a Remain majority priced in, depending on how you distribute Remain and Leave sympathies to rump Labour and Conservatives. The Brexit Party still gets the big headline vote.
> @Dura_Ace said: > So when The Boris Project goes down in flames as it inevitably must Corbyn will have seen off three tory PMs. Amazing.
Yes, it is like watching the unlikely successes of Forest Gump. Never before, in the history of British politics can a man so lacking in intellect have seen off so many of his hapless opponents by shear luck of the dice
> @Scott_P said: > This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it. > > What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base. > > But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can. > > Ummm, that's the point. > > Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant. > > Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders. > > But they won't...
The problem with that analogy is the Militant represented a small vocal faction within the Labour Party with influence in the party structure that did not reflect the views of the majority of Labour members or supporters.
Leave - including No Deal Leave - represents the large majority view in the party and amongst likely Tory voters.
It is one thing to save the body by amputating a finger. It is quite another to do it by amputating at the neck.
> > There will not be one. TM will hand over to her successor directly
>
> No, she hands over as PM directly, there will be no leader of the party at all from June 7 till election conclusion. Party run by the rules of the 1922s election process
What happens if 5 - 10 Tory MPs immediately respond to Boris being elected by resigning the Tory Whip? Bang would go the Tory/DUP majority . Would the Queen be advised to appoint a new PM who clearly lacked a majority in the Commons?
There has to be a PM, so if it’s clear that the new Conservative leader doesn’t have the support of a majority of the Commons Mrs May might well have to stay on as a neutral PM while we have an election in the late summer.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > Nothing became her Premiership as the leaving of it. > > > > > > Touching, but the sad end to a terrible Prime Minister's tenure. > > > > the last time we had the worst PM ever, we ended up with a pretty good coalition government .... does that happen next and with who if so? > > #RemainAlliance > > Ken Clarke as PM?
That is exactly what should have happened.
May should have stood down immediately and appointed Clarke as temporary PM until a new leader is chosen.
Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit.
It rained last night but had dried before the F2 race, although the mountains were still covered in cloud. I’m seeing forecasts of 70% chance of rain on Saturday lunchtime but don’t know what to think of them.
I also don’t know what to think of the safety car bet, the organisers called an unnecessary one in the F2 race (should have been a VSC) but more importantly the organisers completely f...ed up the red flag restart procedure following a blocked track (ironically caused by Michael Schumacher Jr, following in his father’s footsteps). New race director is going to be a lot more cautious than Charlie was.
> @viewcode said: > I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market. > > Sarcasm aside, that is as it should be. People have got money riding on this.
I don't think Alistair was being sarcastic. Like you he recognises that this site is or should primarily be about betting on politics. Political betting. That's what is it says on the tin.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent. That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
There's thousands of quid riding on the parsing of a sentence.
> @nico67 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections. > > Perhaps the one and only time I will ever agree with the odious Francois . > > It would be astonishing if they didn’t win . The Remain split in the vote was always going to hand victory to the BP . > > For Remainers it’s a damage limitation exercise . And to try and get as many votes in that column .
The turnout numbers look encouraging for remain - generally higher in remain areas than leave areas. Obv this won't prevent a BP victory but their % could be below expectation.
Since d'Hondt as designed by Blair could still give the B****t party 45% of the seats on 30% of the popular vote, they must be very grateful that we didn't get full PR.
I don't think d'Hondt was designed by Blair. I may be wrong (I'm no expert on d'Hondt), but looking at it, it does look like it aims to fulfil: 1 - All seats in the region must be allocated 2 - The cost in votes per seat must be the same. 3 - If you don't have enough for the next seat, you fall short.
When the algorithm works out the final seat, you can then run it backwards at the "cost" of the final seat being applied to all seats. So, for example, in a 6 seat area, if Brexit gets 100,000 votes, Labour 45,000 , LD 35,000, Con 21,000, Green 15,000, you'd end up with the 6th seat being given to Brexit at a cost of 25,000 votes.
And if each seat costs 25,000 votes, you'd get 4 for Brexit, 1 for Labour and 1 for the Lib Dems, none for anyone else. Which doesn't look very proportional, but at least the number of votes needed to elect an MEP would be the same for each party. (If Labour had ended up with 50,001 votes, then they'd have got the 5th seat at a cost of 25,000.5). [The vote shares would be 47%, 21%, 16%, 10%, 7% and seat shares would be 66%, 17%, 17%, 0%, 0%]
If, though, you had 10 seats, the 10th seat would cost 17,500 votes and go to the Lib Dems. So Brexit would get 5, Labour 2, Lib Dems 2, Con 1, Green 0. Seat shares of 50%, 20%, 20%, 10%, 0% - which look more proportional.
If you had 20 seats, the last would cost 10,000 votes and go to Brexit; putting in 10,000 votes per seat you'd get it'd be 10 Brexit, 4 Labour, 3 LD, 2 Con, 1 Green [Seat shares of 50%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5% against vote shares of 47%, 21%, 16%, 10%, 7%... which is looking pretty damned fair from here]
If you have only 3 seats, the last would cost 45,000 votes so for each seat costing 45,000 you get 2 for Brexit and 1 for Labour (67%, 33%).
If you have 1 seat, you have the FPTP result.
The fewer seats you have, the more distorted it becomes. The more seats, the more proportional.
> @Alistair said: > I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market. > > There's thousands of quid riding on the parsing of a sentence.
My far bigger problem is consistency. Even if they'd screwed Pulpstar, at least we'd know and he could even potentially have chased his losses.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit.
I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
There's thousands of quid riding on the parsing of a sentence.
Millions now. Hopefully the Conservatives will release an unambiguous statement on 7th June. If it’s not unambiguous then these markets (there’s three) could well get voided.
>Pulpstar Posts: 51,457 >12:45PM >.> @kevo said: >> > tlg86 >> > 12:29PM >> > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the >Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example. >> >> >> According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office. > >Vacant >Prime Minister – John Major 22 June 1995 4 July 1995
Well, it was different party rules back then. But the general pattern holds.
I don't think this can be decided by betfair; they refer to "official" leader of the part, so really it comes down to Tory party rules. Either way, not good from Betfair.
> I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
>
> Sarcasm aside, that is as it should be. People have got money riding on this.
I don't think Alistair was being sarcastic. Like you he recognises that this site is or should primarily be about betting on politics. Political betting. That's what is it says on the tin.
You misunderstood my response. The sarcasm I was referring to was mine, not @AlastairMeeks 's. Alastair wasn't being sarcastic.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying. > > You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn.
Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no. Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes. Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale.
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections. > > I wish the thick, fat bastard would defect, but he probably remembers the fate of Mark Reckless
And sadly his part of Essex avoided the county’s LibDem surge
> @FF43 said: > Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas. > ------ That's wrong.
What you are suggesting is that Leave voters in Remain-voting areas are more likely to turn out than Leave voters in Leave-voting areas. Why would that be?
isam's point about where the local elections were contested in 2014 is much more pertinent.
Jezza really cant put aside party politics can he. His first response to may stepping down and he answers with the bollocks UN report saying 14 million in poverty.
> @ah009 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit. > > "Even though" 🙄 > >
That wasn't meant in the way it sounds and apologies I wrote it badly.
The "Even though … Remainer" wasn't implying Remainers cannot be trusted, it was emphasising my support for him even though he is a Remainer and on the opposite side of the argument from me.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time. > > > > > > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one. > > > > That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change . > > Where are the figures published, please? My local council has nothing relevant on its website.
The standout feature of the turnout data is that areas with students are seeing a leap in turnout. I’d expect 2014 EU election turnout among students to have been low, whereas now they are as if not more energised by the Brexit debate as anyone else. Everywhere else, turnout appears broadly in line with 2014, maybe a smidgin above.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > > > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > > > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying. > > > > You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about. > > If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn. > > Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no. > Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes. > Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale.
That is reasonable but I would suggest there are also some minimum standards of shitty behaviour and belief that one has to reach to be considered fascist and those don't apply to Farage and TBP. They do apply to the EDL as the did to the BNP and NF. I would also suggest they now apply to UKIP.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying. > > But, fascism is fun.
Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness.
Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL.
The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @FF43 said: > > Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas. > > > ------ > That's wrong. > > What you are suggesting is that Leave voters in Remain-voting areas are more likely to turn out than Leave voters in Leave-voting areas. Why would that be? > > isam's point about where the local elections were contested in 2014 is much more pertinent.
The logic of the UNS assumption (which tbf is coming under increasing strain) would suggest the opposite.
> I watched the whole speech - which was calm, clear, steely and composed until the final 5 seconds.....and it will be the last 5 seconds it is remembered for.
Indeed, watching it again I could not believe quite how camp that last 5 seconds was.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness. > > Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL. > > The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
The question is why the Conservatives and Blairite Labour have lost so many votes. Right now, the LibDems are gaining votes. We'll see if they've outpolled Labour in the Euro elections on Sunday.
>> > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the >Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
>Prime Minister – John Major 22 June 1995 4 July 1995
Well, it was different party rules back then. But the general pattern holds.
I don't think this can be decided by betfair; they refer to "official" leader of the part, so really it comes down to Tory party rules. Either way, not good from Betfair.
It’s going to seem like I am being xenophobic here, but I work on Betfair everyday, and since, about a year ago, their customer services dept was outsourced to Romania, the settlement of markets has been horrific. Cost my (Dutch) colleague tens of thousands of pounds
Farage isn't Fascist. Yes, there is leader worship and bypassing state organs to appeal directly to the people, but there's no militarisation of civil society and no banning of opposition parties. He may end up as one but he isn't there yet. There's a perfectly suitable tag for him "national conservative" which never really caught on in the UK because we neglect European methods. Given that he's spent time in the EP and associated more with them than the actual fascists, it seems to fit him. The "right wing" as a concept accommodates a wide variety of concepts of which fascism is one but by no means is the only one, which is why it usually needs qualification.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > > > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > > > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying. > > > > But, fascism is fun. > > Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness. > > Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL. > > The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
Because they have spent too long telling people that reasonably held beliefs on matters such as the EU or nationalisation are 'extremist'.
They think that by doing this people will stop holding those views. In fact what then happens is that people start to consider extremism acceptable. They abandon the centre for the more fringe parties because they have nothing to lose, having already been labelled extremists.
> Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent. > That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
___________________
It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only.
The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies.
The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt.
It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > > > > > > > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. > > > > > > > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls. > > > > > > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right. > > > > > > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying. > > > > > > You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about. > > > > If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn. > > > > Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no. > > Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes. > > Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale. > > That is reasonable but I would suggest there are also some minimum standards of shitty behaviour and belief that one has to reach to be considered fascist and those don't apply to Farage and TBP. They do apply to the EDL as the did to the BNP and NF. I would also suggest they now apply to UKIP.
Again, that is fine as your personal viewpoint, but others having different views is inevitable, and it doesnt make either of you right, wrong or divorced from reality. If you ask an Indonesian and a Dutchman is that 6ft man tall, you will get different answers, neither is wrong, just coming from different perspectives.
There surely won't be any ambiguity about her date of departure as leader. Either she's leader or she's not. However, it's unclear at the moment whether she will remain as leader until the successor is appointed, or leave the post vacant during the contest. There's no great reason why it can't be left vacant, it's not like the premiership.
So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party
Theresa/Carlotta - thanks for your service to the country and to PB. We have had our differences but I dare say I shall very soon be wishing you had never resigned!
@isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules.
I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far.
The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
> @viewcode said: > Farage isn't Fascist. Yes, there is leader worship and bypassing state organs to appeal directly to the people, but there's no militarisation of civil society and no banning of opposition parties. He may end up as one but he isn't there yet. There's a perfectly suitable tag for him "national conservative" which never really caught on in the UK because we neglect European methods. Given that he's spent time in the EP and associated more with them than the actual fascists, it seems to fit him. The "right wing" as a concept accommodates a wide variety of concepts of which fascism is one but by no means is the only one, which is why it usually needs qualification.
How many fascists in opposition can ban other parties! This definition would rule out anyone not in power from being fascist.
On the question of whether the rules can be amended so that more than two candidates are put forward to members, I think it might be difficult. The rules of the MPs' stage of the contest are set by the 1922 committee, so they can easily be changed. However, the members' vote is laid down in the party constitution, so is not so easy to change, and I imagine couldn't be changed quickly enough.
This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info:
Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
> @Sandpit said: > @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules. > > I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far. > > The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
Thought Ken Clarke was very droll. When asked if he might stand, he said he'd probably give it a miss, saying "There has to be at least one Tory MP who doesn’t run".
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > On the question of whether the rules can be amended so that more than two candidates are put forward to members, I think it might be difficult. The rules of the MPs' stage of the contest are set by the 1922 committee, so they can easily be changed. However, the members' vote is laid down in the party constitution, so is not so easy to change, and I imagine couldn't be changed quickly enough. > > This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info: > > http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf > > Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
I suspect that one effect of today's developments will be to deflect attention from the EU results on Sunday.Any impact is likely to be reduced and success for the Brexit Party will not generate momentum on the scale previously anticipated.
> @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules.
>
> I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far.
>
> The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
It's very poor
Yesterday I had that £50 on Oct-Dec and it showed on my P&L as -£350. I phoned up and the bloke had literally no idea, I ended up just saying thanks and ending it. Really clueless
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Sandpit said: > > @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules. > > > > I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far. > > > > The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides. > > It's very poor
It's such a basic facet of this market that they should have had an answer ready to go
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > On the question of whether the rules can be amended so that more than two candidates are put forward to members, I think it might be difficult. The rules of the MPs' stage of the contest are set by the 1922 committee, so they can easily be changed. However, the members' vote is laid down in the party constitution, so is not so easy to change, and I imagine couldn't be changed quickly enough. > > > > This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info: > > > > http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf > > > > Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.") > > Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
That's right. It would be in line with the letter of the Party Constitution for 3+ candidates to be put to the membership, where there'd need to be preferential voting, but it would be against the spirit of it, and against expectations.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
The way the BXP numbers are going the Tories are going to need to bring in electoral reform as quickly as possible. This might be a good chance to start normalizing the idea of transfers.
The places where turnout has failed to rise or has dropped slightly would appear to be mostly very strong Leave areas like Harlow and South Holland. Whether that will prove to be important is difficult to predict.
Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
Arguably not. But it's always been interpreted previously as a choice of two, and I think it would be very awkward to try to claim a different interpretation.
May is resigning as PM on June 7th due to the highly poltical nature of the next few months - it means there is.... no party whip that she leads so far as I can work out.
Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
Arguably not. But it's always been interpreted previously as a choice of two, and I think it would be very awkward to try to claim a different interpretation.
Richard, what’s your view on exactly when TM ceases to be leader of the party?
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728 > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. <
++++
FFS. Farage is many unpleasant things, but he's not a fascist. He's a populist, a nationalist, a bit of a demagogue, but he's not going to cancel democracy, put the army on the streets, take personal control of the courts, shoot all dissenters, jail all opponents, and inculcate a nationwide worship of violence, machismo and state power.
He's Viktor Orban in an arguably better suit. He's not Hitler, Mussolini or Franco.
Your definition of fascist insults all the many brave people who died fighting REAL fascism. Tut.
EDIT: I see Viewcode got there first. I heartily agree.
> @justin124 said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister. > > > > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever. > > Moreover she had little control over the length of the campaign because of the FTPA.
I think the election campaign was about 2 weeks longer than it needed to be, even under the new rules. The final 2 weeks is when it started to go badly wrong for her.
> @AndyJS said: > The places where turnout has failed to rise or has dropped slightly would appear to be mostly very strong Leave areas like Harlow and South Holland. Whether that will prove to be important is difficult to predict.
Could just mean that minority Remainers there have given up the will to live/fight/vote....
> @FF43 said: > > @ah009 said: > > > Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent. > > That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power. > > ___________________ > > It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only. > > The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies. > > The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt. > > It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist. > >
While I am no fan of the BXP or of Farage, I would not describe him as Fascist. Populist, demagogue, and autocratic, but there is more to Fascism than that. I think the style of the meetings owes more to Trumpism, and in turn that is borrowed from the revivalist Evangelical style. Indeed the pioneer of that revivalist rally campaign style in the UK is Jeremy Corbyn.
People like to believe, and are thirsty for hope. They are easy meat for hucksters and charlatans whether political or religious, who promise a simple solution to complex issues.
Comments
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time.
> >
> > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one.
>
> That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
Where are the figures published, please? My local council has nothing relevant on its website.
> I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
Correct. It is a betting website after all.
> I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
It's the one thing that can unite everyone, even Hitler:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MqkRfEBYfw
> Wot she said:
>
> So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen
>
> https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister
>
> That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed.
>
> Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
This sounds right to me. May resigns as leader on 7th June. Whether her resignation on that date results in her immediately ceasing to be leader of the party - or whether she remains leader until her successor is chosen, will be determined by the Tory party rules or rule makers. They could of course clarify this for us all now! Anyone able to determine this through their Tory party links?
> 12:29PM
> I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1131877585493925889
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Wot she said:
> >
> > So I am today announcing that I will resign as the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on Friday 7 June so that a successor can be chosen
> >
> > https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1131497/Theresa-May-speech-transcript-theresa-may-resigns-steps-down-cry-prime-minister
> >
> > That's ambiguous, though. The most obvious interpretation is that she resigns on the 7th June with immediate effect, but the statement is also compatible with her handing in her resignation on the day to take effect when the new leader is appointed.
> >
> > Either way, the ambiguity is in that statement, not in the fact of whether she is leader on the 8th June or not. That won't be ambiguous.
>
> The issue with Betfair is that it appears that they answered the hypothetical question wrongly. That is, they seem to think that there has to be a leader of the Tory Party.
Well, yes.
But the market is quite simply stated: "When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?". If the party makes it official before the end of June that May is no longer leader, there will then be no ambiguity at all.
What Betfair says about it now merely represents their current best guess. Which is likely to be more sensible oncethey get more information, or think about it for a bit.
> > tlg86
> > 12:29PM
> > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
>
>
> According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
What about that row saying "Vacant" between the two John Major rows?
> > tlg86
> > 12:29PM
> > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
>
>
> According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
Vacant
Prime Minister – John Major 22 June 1995 4 July 1995
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > >
> > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> >
> > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
>
> Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
> Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections.
Perhaps the one and only time I will ever agree with the odious Francois .
It would be astonishing if they didn’t win . The Remain split in the vote was always going to hand victory to the BP .
For Remainers it’s a damage limitation exercise . And to try and get as many votes in that column .
> Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections.
I wish the thick, fat bastard would defect, but he probably remembers the fate of Mark Reckless
> So when The Boris Project goes down in flames as it inevitably must Corbyn will have seen off three tory PMs. Amazing.
And still isn't PM!
Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas.
Secondly, the polls already have a Remain majority priced in, depending on how you distribute Remain and Leave sympathies to rump Labour and Conservatives. The Brexit Party still gets the big headline vote.
> So when The Boris Project goes down in flames as it inevitably must Corbyn will have seen off three tory PMs. Amazing.
Yes, it is like watching the unlikely successes of Forest Gump. Never before, in the history of British politics can a man so lacking in intellect have seen off so many of his hapless opponents by shear luck of the dice
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/24/blunt-truth-theresa-may-terrible-prime-minister-better-without/
> This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
>
> What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
>
> But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
>
> Ummm, that's the point.
>
> Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
>
> Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
>
> But they won't...
The problem with that analogy is the Militant represented a small vocal faction within the Labour Party with influence in the party structure that did not reflect the views of the majority of Labour members or supporters.
Leave - including No Deal Leave - represents the large majority view in the party and amongst likely Tory voters.
It is one thing to save the body by amputating a finger. It is quite another to do it by amputating at the neck.
"There must be at least one MP who doesn't run ..."
> Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections.
>
> They are 1/33. Should we lay? I have a bit
I'd hardly be backing at those odds, feels like the proverbial pennies and bulldozer to me.
Who wants to be watching a very dramatic results broadcast sick that they've lost £200?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > >
> > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > >
> > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> >
> > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
>
> In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
>
> Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
But, fascism is fun.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > Nothing became her Premiership as the leaving of it.
>
> >
>
> > Touching, but the sad end to a terrible Prime Minister's tenure.
>
>
>
> the last time we had the worst PM ever, we ended up with a pretty good coalition government .... does that happen next and with who if so?
>
> #RemainAlliance
>
> Ken Clarke as PM?
That is exactly what should have happened.
May should have stood down immediately and appointed Clarke as temporary PM until a new leader is chosen.
Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit.
I also don’t know what to think of the safety car bet, the organisers called an unnecessary one in the F2 race (should have been a VSC) but more importantly the organisers completely f...ed up the red flag restart procedure following a blocked track (ironically caused by Michael Schumacher Jr, following in his father’s footsteps). New race director is going to be a lot more cautious than Charlie was.
> I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
>
> Sarcasm aside, that is as it should be. People have got money riding on this.
I don't think Alistair was being sarcastic. Like you he recognises that this site is or should primarily be about betting on politics. Political betting. That's what is it says on the tin.
> No British Prime Minister has left office with a legacy even close to as bad as this since the 18th century
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/24/blunt-truth-theresa-may-terrible-prime-minister-better-without/
David Cameron comes close though. His reputation gets worse with the passage of time and has much further to fall I fear.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > >
> > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > >
> > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> >
> > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
>
> In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
>
> Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > >
> > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> >
> > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
>
> Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent.
That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
> https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1131885494860734464
Also we shouldn't forget that Howard was a coronation as well, he was deliberately being set up to take the post and it was a Blair-Brown style swap.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections.
>
> Perhaps the one and only time I will ever agree with the odious Francois .
>
> It would be astonishing if they didn’t win . The Remain split in the vote was always going to hand victory to the BP .
>
> For Remainers it’s a damage limitation exercise . And to try and get as many votes in that column .
The turnout numbers look encouraging for remain - generally higher in remain areas than leave areas. Obv this won't prevent a BP victory but their % could be below expectation.
I may be wrong (I'm no expert on d'Hondt), but looking at it, it does look like it aims to fulfil:
1 - All seats in the region must be allocated
2 - The cost in votes per seat must be the same.
3 - If you don't have enough for the next seat, you fall short.
When the algorithm works out the final seat, you can then run it backwards at the "cost" of the final seat being applied to all seats.
So, for example, in a 6 seat area, if Brexit gets 100,000 votes, Labour 45,000 , LD 35,000, Con 21,000, Green 15,000, you'd end up with the 6th seat being given to Brexit at a cost of 25,000 votes.
And if each seat costs 25,000 votes, you'd get 4 for Brexit, 1 for Labour and 1 for the Lib Dems, none for anyone else. Which doesn't look very proportional, but at least the number of votes needed to elect an MEP would be the same for each party. (If Labour had ended up with 50,001 votes, then they'd have got the 5th seat at a cost of 25,000.5). [The vote shares would be 47%, 21%, 16%, 10%, 7% and seat shares would be 66%, 17%, 17%, 0%, 0%]
If, though, you had 10 seats, the 10th seat would cost 17,500 votes and go to the Lib Dems. So Brexit would get 5, Labour 2, Lib Dems 2, Con 1, Green 0. Seat shares of 50%, 20%, 20%, 10%, 0% - which look more proportional.
If you had 20 seats, the last would cost 10,000 votes and go to Brexit; putting in 10,000 votes per seat you'd get it'd be 10 Brexit, 4 Labour, 3 LD, 2 Con, 1 Green [Seat shares of 50%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5% against vote shares of 47%, 21%, 16%, 10%, 7%... which is looking pretty damned fair from here]
If you have only 3 seats, the last would cost 45,000 votes so for each seat costing 45,000 you get 2 for Brexit and 1 for Labour (67%, 33%).
If you have 1 seat, you have the FPTP result.
The fewer seats you have, the more distorted it becomes. The more seats, the more proportional.
> I'm pleased to see that this place has its priorities right. On the day that the Prime Minister announces that she is standing down, the burning topic of conversation are the rules of a Betfair market.
>
> There's thousands of quid riding on the parsing of a sentence.
My far bigger problem is consistency. Even if they'd screwed Pulpstar, at least we'd know and he could even potentially have chased his losses.
> Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit.
"Even though" 🙄
> So when The Boris Project goes down in flames as it inevitably must Corbyn will have seen off three tory PMs. Amazing.
If he is leader of the Labour Party for life then he might reach eight or nine Tory PMs "seen off".
>12:45PM
>.> @kevo said:
>> > tlg86
>> > 12:29PM
>> > I think it's right that Betfair don't settle until it actually happens, but it's clear that the >Conservative Party does not have to have a leader as shown by the John Major example.
>>
>>
>> According to wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK), there is no break in leadership .... so the date her tenure ends will be when the next leader takes office.
>
>Vacant
>Prime Minister – John Major 22 June 1995 4 July 1995
Well, it was different party rules back then. But the general pattern holds.
I don't think this can be decided by betfair; they refer to "official" leader of the part, so really it comes down to Tory party rules. Either way, not good from Betfair.
> Mr. Sandpit, any more word on Saturday rain?
Mostly in the N and W
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > > >
> > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > > >
> > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > >
> > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
> >
> > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
> >
> > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
>
> You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn.
Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no.
Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes.
Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Mark Francois seems very cocky about the Brexit Party winning the European elections.
>
> I wish the thick, fat bastard would defect, but he probably remembers the fate of Mark Reckless
And sadly his part of Essex avoided the county’s LibDem surge
> Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas.
>
------
That's wrong.
What you are suggesting is that Leave voters in Remain-voting areas are more likely to turn out than Leave voters in Leave-voting areas. Why would that be?
isam's point about where the local elections were contested in 2014 is much more pertinent.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > Even though he is a staunch Remainer he is also a man of honour and utterly trustworthy. He could have started the healing process both in the party and the country whilst making sure nothing was done to jeopardise any future PM's preferred way forward on Brexit.
>
> "Even though" 🙄
>
>
That wasn't meant in the way it sounds and apologies I wrote it badly.
The "Even though … Remainer" wasn't implying Remainers cannot be trusted, it was emphasising my support for him even though he is a Remainer and on the opposite side of the argument from me.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > >
> > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > My 50/1 bet on the LDs getting most seats is looking better all the time.
> > >
> > > Cambridge was 44% last time. Like St. Alban's, a rise, but not a very big one.
> >
> > That’s not the main point . It’s the difference between Remain and Leave areas that’s important . A few Leave areas have done okay in terms of turnout but overall so far areas that voted Remain or less to leave have been better for turnout . It’s still very early with loads of areas still to report so it could change .
>
> Where are the figures published, please? My local council has nothing relevant on its website.
The standout feature of the turnout data is that areas with students are seeing a leap in turnout. I’d expect 2014 EU election turnout among students to have been low, whereas now they are as if not more energised by the Brexit debate as anyone else. Everywhere else, turnout appears broadly in line with 2014, maybe a smidgin above.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1131895494387654657
It probably helps him, but no assumptions.
Imagine Boris v Hunt
Or Boris v Raab v Hunt (single round of voting).
Which works better?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > > > >
> > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > > >
> > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
> > >
> > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
> > >
> > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
> >
> > You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
>
> If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn.
>
> Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no.
> Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes.
> Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale.
That is reasonable but I would suggest there are also some minimum standards of shitty behaviour and belief that one has to reach to be considered fascist and those don't apply to Farage and TBP. They do apply to the EDL as the did to the BNP and NF. I would also suggest they now apply to UKIP.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > > >
> > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > > >
> > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > >
> > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
> >
> > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
> >
> > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
>
> But, fascism is fun.
Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness.
Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL.
The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
> > @FF43 said:
> > Firstly, in a close referendum all areas had a mix of Remain and Leave voters. All areas will see a big drop in turnout since the referendum. The issue is the relative turnout of the different groups of voters. It's simplistic to split these into Leave voters and Remain voters and Leave areas and Remain areas.
> >
> ------
> That's wrong.
>
> What you are suggesting is that Leave voters in Remain-voting areas are more likely to turn out than Leave voters in Leave-voting areas. Why would that be?
>
> isam's point about where the local elections were contested in 2014 is much more pertinent.
The logic of the UNS assumption (which tbf is coming under increasing strain) would suggest the opposite.
> Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness.
>
> Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL.
>
> The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
The question is why the Conservatives and Blairite Labour have lost so many votes. Right now, the LibDems are gaining votes. We'll see if they've outpolled Labour in the Euro elections on Sunday.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > > > >
> > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > > >
> > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
> > >
> > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
> > >
> > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
> >
> > But, fascism is fun.
>
> Fascism is NOT fun. Neither is militant Communism or other left / right wing madness.
>
> Momentum/Corbyn Labour are the flip side of the coin from the Brexit Party. When activists on the left start talking about attacking other people they move further out to become the flip side of the coin from the EDL.
>
> The question is why the centre - Conservatives / Blairite Labour / LibDems - have lost so many votes? Too similar / tone deaf / boring?
Because they have spent too long telling people that reasonably held beliefs on matters such as the EU or nationalisation are 'extremist'.
They think that by doing this people will stop holding those views. In fact what then happens is that people start to consider extremism acceptable. They abandon the centre for the more fringe parties because they have nothing to lose, having already been labelled extremists.
> Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent.
> That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
___________________
It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only.
The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies.
The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt.
It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is.
> > > > >
> > > > > Whilst i wont vote for Farage, your definition of Farage and TBP as fascist shows how divorced you are from reality. So no, even if Farage were to win most votes, you would still not haveca fascist party leading in the polls.
> > > >
> > > > In your opinion. I do not throw around the word like a lefty, I have always been centre right, but I have studied extremism and fascism in particular for a long time. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage stink very strongly of fascism. You may not want to admit that as you were once a supporter of his previous vanity project party, but I think that as you are obviously a decent person you know I am right.
> > > >
> > > > Many people get carried along by fascism, some don't notice the smell, others hold their noses, and some revel in it. Modern fascism, that the Brexit Party is an example of, is a pernicious, divisive and highly damaging form of politics. That it is on the rise in the UK is very worrying.
> > >
> > > You may have studied it by I have experienced it directly and to be frank you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
> >
> > If you ask people is someone tall, you expect different answers depending on their perspectives. It is no different if you ask is someone a fascist. Does Farage display some fascist tendencies, yes, but clearly so do May and Corbyn.
> >
> > Are the Brexit party as fascist as National Rally in France, no.
> > Are the Brexit party more fascist than mainstream UK parties, yes.
> > Are the Brexit party fascist, depends entirely on your personal scale.
>
> That is reasonable but I would suggest there are also some minimum standards of shitty behaviour and belief that one has to reach to be considered fascist and those don't apply to Farage and TBP. They do apply to the EDL as the did to the BNP and NF. I would also suggest they now apply to UKIP.
Again, that is fine as your personal viewpoint, but others having different views is inevitable, and it doesnt make either of you right, wrong or divorced from reality. If you ask an Indonesian and a Dutchman is that 6ft man tall, you will get different answers, neither is wrong, just coming from different perspectives.
The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
> Farage isn't Fascist. Yes, there is leader worship and bypassing state organs to appeal directly to the people, but there's no militarisation of civil society and no banning of opposition parties. He may end up as one but he isn't there yet. There's a perfectly suitable tag for him "national conservative" which never really caught on in the UK because we neglect European methods. Given that he's spent time in the EP and associated more with them than the actual fascists, it seems to fit him. The "right wing" as a concept accommodates a wide variety of concepts of which fascism is one but by no means is the only one, which is why it usually needs qualification.
How many fascists in opposition can ban other parties! This definition would rule out anyone not in power from being fascist.
This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info:
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
> @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules.
>
> I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far.
>
> The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
It's very poor
Arf!
> On the question of whether the rules can be amended so that more than two candidates are put forward to members, I think it might be difficult. The rules of the MPs' stage of the contest are set by the 1922 committee, so they can easily be changed. However, the members' vote is laid down in the party constitution, so is not so easy to change, and I imagine couldn't be changed quickly enough.
>
> This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info:
>
> http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
>
> Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
Winners Brexit Party Plaid. Greens in that order.
Losers Labour, Tories, UKIP
> > @Sandpit said:
> > @isam The direct message they've sent me contradicts their own market rules.
> >
> > I hope someone high up in Betfair is monitoring the support enquiries on this market. They need to give a single statement to the effect that they will settle based on what the party officially says - rather than the contradictory statements they’ve given so far.
> >
> > The perils of outsourcing customer support, doubly so for something so technical and ambiguous where people have money on both sides.
>
> It's very poor
It's such a basic facet of this market that they should have had an answer ready to go
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1131895494387654657
>
> It probably helps him, but no assumptions.
>
> Imagine Boris v Hunt
> Or Boris v Raab v Hunt (single round of voting).
>
> Which works better?
Having four at least means we can skip two rounds of voting - and get it to the membership sooner.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > On the question of whether the rules can be amended so that more than two candidates are put forward to members, I think it might be difficult. The rules of the MPs' stage of the contest are set by the 1922 committee, so they can easily be changed. However, the members' vote is laid down in the party constitution, so is not so easy to change, and I imagine couldn't be changed quickly enough.
> >
> > This (very quick of the mark!) briefing paper by the HoC Library has the relevant info:
> >
> > http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
> >
> > Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
>
> Doesn't seem to rule out transferable votes with multiple candidates?
That's right. It would be in line with the letter of the Party Constitution for 3+ candidates to be put to the membership, where there'd need to be preferential voting, but it would be against the spirit of it, and against expectations.
> Appendix 3 has the excerpt from the party constitution. Rather oddly, it doesn't seem to explicitly state that there will be two candidates put to members, but that is implicit in the text and is clearly the intention ("A candidate achieving more than 50% of the vote among the Party Membership shall be declared elected Leader of the Party.")
The way the BXP numbers are going the Tories are going to need to bring in electoral reform as quickly as possible. This might be a good chance to start normalizing the idea of transfers.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1131878451537993728
> >
> > Brexit Party and Cons have a majority in England on that poll but not in the UK as a whole
>
> I know it is only an opinion poll, but it is a shocking thought that a party that many of us would recognise as clearly fascist, with a easily identifiable fascist leader is within 2% of being the most popular party. Fascism can't happen here? It can and it is. <
++++
FFS. Farage is many unpleasant things, but he's not a fascist. He's a populist, a nationalist, a bit of a demagogue, but he's not going to cancel democracy, put the army on the streets, take personal control of the courts, shoot all dissenters, jail all opponents, and inculcate a nationwide worship of violence, machismo and state power.
He's Viktor Orban in an arguably better suit. He's not Hitler, Mussolini or Franco.
Your definition of fascist insults all the many brave people who died fighting REAL fascism. Tut.
EDIT: I see Viewcode got there first. I heartily agree.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > She made a lot of bad decisions, like having a long election campaign with a big poll lead, when it should have been as short as possible. Another one is not starting the leadership process now, because it could take until September to get a new prime minister.
> >
> > The length wasn't the problem, it was the sheer ineptitude of her campaign, probably the most shambolic Tory election campaign anyone can remember, maybe ever.
>
> Moreover she had little control over the length of the campaign because of the FTPA.
I think the election campaign was about 2 weeks longer than it needed to be, even under the new rules. The final 2 weeks is when it started to go badly wrong for her.
> The places where turnout has failed to rise or has dropped slightly would appear to be mostly very strong Leave areas like Harlow and South Holland. Whether that will prove to be important is difficult to predict.
Could just mean that minority Remainers there have given up the will to live/fight/vote....
> > @ah009 said:
>
> > Farage might not be a fascist. He's certainly friends with some. That leads one to think his views overlap with theirs to some extent.
> > That's too close for my liking. I think it's fair to call him a fascist sympathiser. And I don't want the man anywhere near any levers of power.
>
> ___________________
>
> It's an interesting question. I started out thinking it was ridiculous to think of Farage as a fascist, but the more I get to know about the Brexit Party, the more it becomes clear it is a fascist party - in some respects only.
>
> The messaging of betrayal, that only the Party represents the nation's values against corrupt and traitorous elites, that only the despotic Leader can sort things out. These are taken from the 1930s fascist party playbook. As are the populist rallies.
>
> The Brexit Party has however none of the militarism of the 1930s fascist parties, has no interest in going to war, is opposed to violence. The racism is covert rather than overt.
>
> It may be more accurate to describe the Brexit Party as proto-fascist or neo-fascist.
>
>
While I am no fan of the BXP or of Farage, I would not describe him as Fascist. Populist, demagogue, and autocratic, but there is more to Fascism than that. I think the style of the meetings owes more to Trumpism, and in turn that is borrowed from the revivalist Evangelical style. Indeed the pioneer of that revivalist rally campaign style in the UK is Jeremy Corbyn.
People like to believe, and are thirsty for hope. They are easy meat for hucksters and charlatans whether political or religious, who promise a simple solution to complex issues.