> @Chris said: > > @Slackbladder said: > > One thing is clear. May's deal is now deader than deader (it was before, but its declared now) > > > > So that leaves, No-Deal, New-Deal or No-Leave. All of which seem unpalatable. > > Does anyone really think the EU will negotiate a different deal?
Possible, but I think it would have to be one of: -Not really different to May's deal -May's deal plus permanent Customs Union -EFTA/Single Market type deal
I'm doubtful about a Canada+ style deal (which Johnson has previously championed) given the issue of the border with the Republic, amongst other things. But who knows?
> @CarlottaVance said: > Theresa looks a broken woman. > > > I watched the whole speech - which was calm, clear, steely and composed until the final 5 seconds.....and it will be the last 5 seconds it is remembered for.
Indeed, watching it again I could not believe quite how camp that last 5 seconds was.
> @maaarsh said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest. > > The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest.
However if Corbyn 'isn't there' any longer the sole justification for a Tory parliamentary majority collapses?
> @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in.
More leavey than average in 2016 though
Yes indeed –– and I am certainly not saying you are wrong –– although probably trended slightly more Remain in the intervening years.
Sorry not picking an argument with you or @SouthamObserver but Bournemouth not only voted 55-45 Leave, but neither seat I have seen (East and West) have ever elected a non Tory.
Before the pair of you made the comments I wouldn’t have known how it voted ever.
She was going to do that anyway because she remains in office whilst the election for her replacement was going on. I mean, this hasn't exactly come out of the blue has it? The runners and riders have been strutting their stuff for weeks already.
Thank goodness we don't have any major deadlines coming up by which various things have to be decided later this year, eh? Otherwise we might be in a hurry.
> @isam said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > > > > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive > > > > > > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London. > > > > Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
Anecdote alert : I was down in Dorset last weekend, just across the bay from Bournemouth, and was surprised to see a number of Lib Dem posters and even a few Labour ones in the villages. Lib Dems were out in Swanage High Street on Saturday.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @AndyJS said: > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation. > > The betfair market is for party leader though
> @Alistair said: > The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market. > > I'm reading and re-reading the rules. I haven't put anything in because I don't believe this. This looks like ultra free money at a great rate.
> @TheKrakenAwakes said: > > @isam said: > > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive > > Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
The stereotype of Bournemouth as a retirement town is about 20 years out of date AFAIK.
> > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
>
>
>
> Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
>
> Wowzers
>
> I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
>
> 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
> @OldKingCole said: > > @maaarsh said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest. > > > > The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest. > > However if Corbyn 'isn't there' any longer the sole justification for a Tory parliamentary majority collapses?
The current number 1 threat to the British people's well being would change (subject to the new leader).
Just because something is top of the list, it doesn't mean it's the only thing on the list.
I'm wondering what May and Cable's departures mean for Corbyn. If both are replaced with younger leaders (and better communicators) maybe the pressure will rise within Labour to change as well.
I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not.
> @Alistair said: > The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market. > > I'm reading and re-reading the rules. I haven't put anything in because I don't believe this. This looks like ultra free money at a great rate.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @AndyJS said: > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation. > > The betfair market is for party leader though
It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
> @SouthamObserver said: > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation. > > > > The betfair market is for party leader though > > It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
She said very clearly "I am steppign down as leader of the Conservative and Unionst Party on 7 June but will remain Prime Minister until the resultant leadership election has been completed."
I wouldn't say it is 100% clear but he Party could easily have an interim leader, or no leader, whereas there is always a PM.
> I quite like Ruth Davidson, but she's getting a little hysterical. She's shackled to a corpse.
------
The Conservative Party or the UK, or both?
If you support one union, you're best keeping the other. I'm pretty sure Davidson is aware of that, but not everyone in her Scottish party is as aware, the Brexit Party surprisingly seems to be a thing in Scotland, and Davidson has to represent the UK Conservative Party of little Englanders to Scotland.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation. > > > > The betfair market is for party leader though > > It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
> @HYUFD said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation. > > > > The betfair market is for party leader though > > It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
Why is it the same thing? If someone wins on a pure no deal ticket they would not have the confidence of the HoC - think it is safe to say people are guessing if they claim to know whether the Queen would make them PM in that scenario, probably depends on exact numbers and alternative options.
But for the bet, you can obviously resign as leader of Tories but be PM, they are separate responsibilities.
> @_Anazina_ said: > If there is an election this year, I think a 'Remain Alliance' will win. There will be a concerted campaigner by Remainers to game the FPP system, and vote against the Brexiteer in the seat with the nearest challenger, be they Liberal, Labour, Change or Europhile Tory. > > Just a wild guess from me, just for fun.
Under FPTP Leavers win as there are 400 Leave seats to 200 Remain and the Remain side us fplit while the Leave side will move on from Farage to unite behind Boris
> @isam said: > > @FF43 said: > > > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > > > > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive > > > > > > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London. > > > > Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
That is a world away from the scores on the East Coast. Look at places like Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Scarborough, Waveney and Cleethorpes.
> @Sagand said: > > @isam said: > > > @Sagand said: > > > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > > > > > > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM? > > > > Wowzers > > > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market > > > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’ > > I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016.
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
I stand by my prediction that Remain and Leave will both win this election, in their own minds by adding up the votes in the way that best suits them.
> @GarethoftheVale2 said: > I'm wondering what May and Cable's departures mean for Corbyn. If both are replaced with younger leaders (and better communicators) maybe the pressure will rise within Labour to change as well. > > I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not.
One of the many ironies of Brexit is that Corbyn, a derided no-hoper when he was elected in 2015, has now seen off two Tory leaders and a Lib Dem and he is taken seriously as a possible future PM.
> @Andy_Cooke said: > After latest Survation and Opinium polls: > > Con on 25%, Lab on 29%, LD on 16%, Brexit on 19%, Green on 5%. > > > > Seats > > > > Con 235 > > Lab 312 > > LD 22 > > Brexit 5 > > Green 1 > > PC 4 > > SNP 53 > > NI 18 > > > > Lab 14 short of an overall majority. > > We do persist in using artificially precise estimations for a process that isn't properly modellable without a LOT more information (far more multilevel regression required than in headline polls). > Especially given the churn and unpredictability of clumping, I'd guess that such a score would lead to: > Con: 180-260 seats > Lab: 250-320 seats > SNP: 35-55 seats > LD: 20-50 seats > Brexit: 2-20 seats > Green: 1-2 seats > PC: 3-4 seats > NI: 18 seats > > Probable Lab-led Government (minority or Coalition with SNP looks most likely), but who knows? ------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes I basically agree with that.
I try to remove some noise by using an exponentially moving average but we are outside the bounds of sensible modelling and there are several key unknowns eg how much of the Brexit vote will return to the Tories? Some for sure. How much of the LD vote will return to the Tories? Not a lot. It might go the other way. Lots of imponderables.
I'm not trying to predict. I'm trying to present a base case which can then be flexed in the way you have done.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Sagand said: > > > @isam said: > > > > @Sagand said: > > > > > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > > > > > > > > > > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM? > > > > > > Wowzers > > > > > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market > > > > > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’ > > > > I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled. > > Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016.
> @FF43 said: > > If you support one union, you're best keeping the other. I'm pretty sure Davidson is aware of that, but not everyone in her Scottish party is as aware, the Brexit Party surprisingly seems to be a thing in Scotland, and Davidson has to represent the UK Conservative Party of little Englanders to Scotland. > > Utterly toxic for her.
Brexit has turned the strand of unionism that is opposed to narrow nationalism into its own enemy, and there's no way to put that genie back in the bottle.
> @HYUFD said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain. > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
As much as I would love to take the risible Goodwin seriously on this point, I have long learned to pay little credence to his ramblings.
Which of his facts do you disagree with?
In general or in this case?
In this case, his ramping of Labour inside or outside the M25.
They face a serious crisis down here unless and until they bin Corbyn and his dumb hard-left eurosceptic mates. Kind of a serious flaw in Goodwin's analysis, which is all too common with him – much of his 'research' is his opinion du jour, backed up by nothing much.
This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain. > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October
I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause the its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even with a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed ! > > > > > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive > > > > Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council > > Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own > > Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in. > > > > More leavey than average in 2016 though > > Yes indeed –– and I am certainly not saying you are wrong –– although probably trended slightly more Remain in the intervening years. > > Sorry not picking an argument with you or @SouthamObserver but Bournemouth not only voted 55-45 Leave, but neither seat I have seen (East and West) have ever elected a non Tory. > > Before the pair of you made the comments I wouldn’t have known how it voted ever.
Before the LDs imploded both were target seats with Con majorities in the 3000 - 4000 range. Having said that the Referendum result is obviously a lot more recent.
> @anothernick said: > > @GarethoftheVale2 said: > > I'm wondering what May and Cable's departures mean for Corbyn. If both are replaced with younger leaders (and better communicators) maybe the pressure will rise within Labour to change as well. > > > > I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not. > > One of the many ironies of Brexit is that Corbyn, a derided no-hoper when he was elected in 2015, has now seen off two Tory leaders and a Lib Dem and he is taken seriously as a possible future PM.
You could argue that he has a long future of seeing off Tory PMs ahead of him, as there's no chance of him becoming PM himself.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain. > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
At least until he has tried again - and the EU have shown to be intransigent knobs.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @Sagand said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > > @Sagand said: > > > > > > > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM? > > > > > > > > Wowzers > > > > > > > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market > > > > > > > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’ > > > > > > I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled. > > > > Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016. > > Dave never announced a date. > > Isn't the parallel with 1995 ?
But there was a date, in that he started the Tory leadership contest while remaining PM. So the question is whether he was still Tory leader while the contest was run?
This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
Ummm, that's the point.
Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
> > @isam > > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
4 > > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
4 > Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
That is a world away from the scores on the East Coast. Look at places like Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Scarborough, Waveney and Cleethorpes.
All I said was it was a Tory Pensioner town, in fact I was quoting a Lib Dem saying that, and as a town that has only ever returned Tory MPs and voted 55-45 Leave I dont think it was an incorrect statement.
Cambridge is one of the wealthiest and most educated seats in the country, if even Cambridge did not hit 50% hard to see anywhere doing so. A solid turnout nationally then at about 35% but not a surge
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward. ---------------------- Semi-remain? Isn't that like being half-pregnant?
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
> @Pulpstar said: > The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market.
I've just gone in with a tiny sum on June at 2.64 to keep you company.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > Wonder who Labour are afraid of? > > > > https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1131873307907842048 > > I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
I loathe Boris Johnson, as he is a lying opportunist. However I suspect Labour will be nervous as it will be an intelligent, if unauthentic, buffoon versus their highly stupid, childishly contrarian buffoon. What a state our politics are in. Brexit, and it's advocates continue to make us an international laughing stock. Italy looks "strong and stable" by comparison.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @Bob__Sykes said: > > Repost FPT.... > > > > Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end. > > > > The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that. > > > > Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight. > > Theresa May will pass Gordon Brown's time in office at the end of this month.
She is also likely to beat Chamberlain by beginning of July.
Had occasion to visit the Foreign Office a couple of months after BOJO quit. Met some middle ranking staff and it was clear that they thought it was good to have a fairly normal human being in Jermey Hunt. Saying they though BOJO was eratic might be kind. Mot sure if reported but in Gloucestershire the three leave constituecies had tornouts in the mid 30's and the three remain in the mid 40's. Reference Gloucestershire Live
> @AndyJS said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs. > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
> @_Anazina_ said: > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > We could possibly see a 50%-er somewhere in Remainia. When are the London suburbs in? Somewhere dutifully civic and Remainy like Richmond perhaps?
London seems to be taking forever . I think the Lib Dems targeted specific cities and areas where they could get a lot of votes rather then use recourses more widely .
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
Explain why local authority areas are relevant to this election. Isn't it run on a regional/national basis?
> @HYUFD said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign. > > > > > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain. > > > > > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so > > > > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament. > > He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October
No idea where you have the Macron veto from, the EU are quite happy with the status quo, it is probably better for them than any of remain, deal or WA!
He may well end up with trying to get no deal towards October, and undoubtedly will promise not to rule it out, but to become PM he will need a more nuanced position than an outright no dealer without any further negotiations.
I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
He is mad but not mad enough to preside over no deal.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > We could possibly see a 50%-er somewhere in Remainia. When are the London suburbs in? Somewhere dutifully civic and Remainy like Richmond perhaps?
> @Pulpstar said: > > @isam said: > > The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!! > > Feeling ill about that market lol
For what it's worth, I think you're right. Though of course I understand your concern.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% . > > > > > > > > > > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock. > > > > > > What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
> No. In such circumstances with Johnson or Raab as PM, I would expect the Brexit Party’s vote to sharply decline with the switch (back) to the Tories.
----------
If you combine a 2015-like Farage vote with a 2010-like Lib Dem vote, the Tories would have no chance of a majority.
As much as I would love to take the risible Goodwin seriously on this point, I have long learned to pay little credence to his ramblings.
Which of his facts do you disagree with?
In this case, his ramping of Labour inside or outside the M25.
The thread is all about the impact of Farage/Brexit Party on the Tories - he only mentions Labour in passing...
Nope. A key part of his analysis depends on Labour strengthening inside London and in the wider SE. That (as is usual with the risible Goodwin) is one gigantic assumption.
Comments
> She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
The betfair market is for party leader though
> > @Slackbladder said:
> > One thing is clear. May's deal is now deader than deader (it was before, but its declared now)
> >
> > So that leaves, No-Deal, New-Deal or No-Leave. All of which seem unpalatable.
>
> Does anyone really think the EU will negotiate a different deal?
Possible, but I think it would have to be one of:
-Not really different to May's deal
-May's deal plus permanent Customs Union
-EFTA/Single Market type deal
I'm doubtful about a Canada+ style deal (which Johnson has previously championed) given the issue of the border with the Republic, amongst other things. But who knows?
> Theresa looks a broken woman.
>
>
> I watched the whole speech - which was calm, clear, steely and composed until the final 5 seconds.....and it will be the last 5 seconds it is remembered for.
Indeed, watching it again I could not believe quite how camp that last 5 seconds was.
Perhaps May can reinvent herself as a gay icon?
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
>
> The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest.
However if Corbyn 'isn't there' any longer the sole justification for a Tory parliamentary majority collapses?
Before the pair of you made the comments I wouldn’t have known how it voted ever.
> DavidL
>
> Presumably Tessa has delayed her departure so she can go past Bruin's tenure. She's four days' short currently.
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
She was going to do that anyway because she remains in office whilst the election for her replacement was going on. I mean, this hasn't exactly come out of the blue has it? The runners and riders have been strutting their stuff for weeks already.
Thank goodness we don't have any major deadlines coming up by which various things have to be decided later this year, eh? Otherwise we might be in a hurry.
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> >
>
> > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
> >
>
> > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
>
>
>
> Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
Anecdote alert : I was down in Dorset last weekend, just across the bay from Bournemouth, and was surprised to see a number of Lib Dem posters and even a few Labour ones in the villages. Lib Dems were out in Swanage High Street on Saturday.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
>
> The betfair market is for party leader though
Odds against Apr-Jun now!
> The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market.
>
> I'm reading and re-reading the rules. I haven't put anything in because I don't believe this. This looks like ultra free money at a great rate.
Now at evens!!!!
> > @isam said:
> > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
> >
> > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
> Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
The stereotype of Bournemouth as a retirement town is about 20 years out of date AFAIK.
> > @maaarsh said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > No party that elects Boris Johnson its leader and makes him Prime Minister can seriously claim to be acting in the national interest.
> >
> > The Tories need to do whatever minimises the chance of a Corbyn governament - any other course of action is against the national interest.
>
> However if Corbyn 'isn't there' any longer the sole justification for a Tory parliamentary majority collapses?
The current number 1 threat to the British people's well being would change (subject to the new leader).
Just because something is top of the list, it doesn't mean it's the only thing on the list.
I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not.
> The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market.
>
> I'm reading and re-reading the rules. I haven't put anything in because I don't believe this. This looks like ultra free money at a great rate.
Now available at better than evens.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
>
> The betfair market is for party leader though
It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
> May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
> >
> > The betfair market is for party leader though
>
> It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
She said very clearly "I am steppign down as leader of the Conservative and Unionst Party on 7 June but will remain Prime Minister until the resultant leadership election has been completed."
I wouldn't say it is 100% clear but he Party could easily have an interim leader, or no leader, whereas there is always a PM.
Utterly toxic for her.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
> >
> > The betfair market is for party leader though
>
> It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
????? No it isn't.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1131873307907842048
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
>
> We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
>
> Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > She's going to be prime minister until August or September, unless there's another coronation.
> >
> > The betfair market is for party leader though
>
> It's the same thing isn't it. As soon as a new party leader is chosen they become prime minister. The leadership ballot takes ages to complete.
Why is it the same thing? If someone wins on a pure no deal ticket they would not have the confidence of the HoC - think it is safe to say people are guessing if they claim to know whether the Queen would make them PM in that scenario, probably depends on exact numbers and alternative options.
But for the bet, you can obviously resign as leader of Tories but be PM, they are separate responsibilities.
Ken Clarke as PM?
> If there is an election this year, I think a 'Remain Alliance' will win. There will be a concerted campaigner by Remainers to game the FPP system, and vote against the Brexiteer in the seat with the nearest challenger, be they Liberal, Labour, Change or Europhile Tory.
>
> Just a wild guess from me, just for fun.
Under FPTP Leavers win as there are 400 Leave seats to 200 Remain and the Remain side us fplit while the Leave side will move on from Farage to unite behind Boris
> > @FF43 said:
>
> > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> >
>
> > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
> >
>
> > The big change highlighted by the recent local government elections is the probably permanent loss of Tory strongholds along the Costa Geriatrica. As much to do with demographic changes as political upheaval. South coast towns are seen as desirable and reasonably affordable places to live within striking distance of London.
>
>
>
> Yep - Leave is much more an East Coast seaside thing.
That is a world away from the scores on the East Coast. Look at places like Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Scarborough, Waveney and Cleethorpes.
LOL. The great Ruth is back!!
> > @isam said:
> > > @Sagand said:
> >
> > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
> >
> >
> >
> > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
> >
> > Wowzers
> >
> > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
> >
> > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
>
> I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016.
> https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1131868442716495872
>
>
>
> Errr, yes? As if the SCons wanted a Holyrood election in 2014.
Of course they did.
Yougov
9-11 Dec 2014
%
SNP 50
SLab 28
SCon 14
SLD 3
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
I stand by my prediction that Remain and Leave will both win this election, in their own minds by adding up the votes in the way that best suits them.
> I'm wondering what May and Cable's departures mean for Corbyn. If both are replaced with younger leaders (and better communicators) maybe the pressure will rise within Labour to change as well.
>
> I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not.
One of the many ironies of Brexit is that Corbyn, a derided no-hoper when he was elected in 2015, has now seen off two Tory leaders and a Lib Dem and he is taken seriously as a possible future PM.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > Without "chopped up, in his freezer", George is enjoying this:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1131865769866858496
>
>
>
>
>
> Gloating George Osborne remaining classless to the end...
>
> https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1131868462635245568
At least May tried to deliver Brexit unlike Cameron and Osborne who ran off as soon as the referendum result came through
> https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1131873518352764930
Not quite sure he has this democracy thing taped.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1131869951839678464
> After latest Survation and Opinium polls:
>
> Con on 25%, Lab on 29%, LD on 16%, Brexit on 19%, Green on 5%.
>
>
>
> Seats
>
>
>
> Con 235
>
> Lab 312
>
> LD 22
>
> Brexit 5
>
> Green 1
>
> PC 4
>
> SNP 53
>
> NI 18
>
>
>
> Lab 14 short of an overall majority.
>
> We do persist in using artificially precise estimations for a process that isn't properly modellable without a LOT more information (far more multilevel regression required than in headline polls).
> Especially given the churn and unpredictability of clumping, I'd guess that such a score would lead to:
> Con: 180-260 seats
> Lab: 250-320 seats
> SNP: 35-55 seats
> LD: 20-50 seats
> Brexit: 2-20 seats
> Green: 1-2 seats
> PC: 3-4 seats
> NI: 18 seats
>
> Probable Lab-led Government (minority or Coalition with SNP looks most likely), but who knows?
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes I basically agree with that.
I try to remove some noise by using an exponentially moving average but we are outside the bounds of sensible modelling and there are several key unknowns eg how much of the Brexit vote will return to the Tories? Some for sure. How much of the LD vote will return to the Tories? Not a lot. It might go the other way. Lots of imponderables.
I'm not trying to predict. I'm trying to present a base case which can then be flexed in the way you have done.
> > @Sagand said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > > @Sagand said:
> > >
> > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
> > >
> > > Wowzers
> > >
> > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
> > >
> > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
> >
> > I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
>
> Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016.
Dave never announced a date.
Isn't the parallel with 1995 ?
>
> If you support one union, you're best keeping the other. I'm pretty sure Davidson is aware of that, but not everyone in her Scottish party is as aware, the Brexit Party surprisingly seems to be a thing in Scotland, and Davidson has to represent the UK Conservative Party of little Englanders to Scotland.
>
> Utterly toxic for her.
Brexit has turned the strand of unionism that is opposed to narrow nationalism into its own enemy, and there's no way to put that genie back in the bottle.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
>
> We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
>
> Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
> Wonder who Labour are afraid of?
>
> https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1131873307907842048
I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
In this case, his ramping of Labour inside or outside the M25.
They face a serious crisis down here unless and until they bin Corbyn and his dumb hard-left eurosceptic mates. Kind of a serious flaw in Goodwin's analysis, which is all too common with him – much of his 'research' is his opinion du jour, backed up by nothing much.
> https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1131873518352764930
This is bollocks. You can't lead a movement by rejecting it.
What is needed is not confronting the membership as such, it's to greatly widening it so that it's much more representative of the Conservative voter base.
But it's impossible to do anything at the moment, I think. We're in a political hurricane and the best anyone can hope for is to not sink and ride the waves and wind as best they can.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October
I think he’ll Revoke too.
> > @isam said:
>
> > @isam Bournemouth - Now there's a place Ann Widdecombe will have appealed !
>
> >
>
> > The apparent clue is that Tory pensioner towns with good turnout are a BXP positive
>
>
>
> Not necessarily. The first council elections to the new unitary council of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchuch returned no overall control and a Lib Dem leader of the council
>
> Fair enough, I was passing on a Lib Dem’s clue not offering my own
>
> Lots of demographic change down there. Was once God's waiting room, but trendier now with lots of younger liberal types moving in.
>
>
>
> More leavey than average in 2016 though
>
> Yes indeed –– and I am certainly not saying you are wrong –– although probably trended slightly more Remain in the intervening years.
>
> Sorry not picking an argument with you or @SouthamObserver but Bournemouth not only voted 55-45 Leave, but neither seat I have seen (East and West) have ever elected a non Tory.
>
> Before the pair of you made the comments I wouldn’t have known how it voted ever.
Before the LDs imploded both were target seats with Con majorities in the 3000 - 4000 range. Having said that the Referendum result is obviously a lot more recent.
> > @GarethoftheVale2 said:
> > I'm wondering what May and Cable's departures mean for Corbyn. If both are replaced with younger leaders (and better communicators) maybe the pressure will rise within Labour to change as well.
> >
> > I guess, this depends though on whether an early election is likely or not.
>
> One of the many ironies of Brexit is that Corbyn, a derided no-hoper when he was elected in 2015, has now seen off two Tory leaders and a Lib Dem and he is taken seriously as a possible future PM.
You could argue that he has a long future of seeing off Tory PMs ahead of him, as there's no chance of him becoming PM himself.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
At least until he has tried again - and the EU have shown to be intransigent knobs.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @Sagand said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > > @Sagand said:
> > > >
> > > > > Anyone have any reason why "April 2019 - Jun 2019" as May's exit date has gone back out to 1.25 on Betfair?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Must be people trying to work out how long the leadership election will take. Is the Exit Date as leader or PM?
> > > >
> > > > Wowzers
> > > >
> > > > I managed to get a tenner on 17.5 July but also had £100 on 1.15 June on the Exit Date 3 Market
> > > >
> > > > 4K available at 1.3 if anyone is sure ‘June 7th means June 7th’
> > >
> > > I guess the sticking point would be if 'resign' means 'resign'. If she simply triggers a leadership contest on June 7th but doesn't resign as party leader staying on as both party leader and PM until a replacement is found. July would be the winner. Based on the language used today June will win, but it's out to 1.46 now so someone is having doubts on how it'll be settled.
> >
> > Should be easy enough to work out what happened in 2016.
>
> Dave never announced a date.
>
> Isn't the parallel with 1995 ?
But there was a date, in that he started the Tory leadership contest while remaining PM. So the question is whether he was still Tory leader while the contest was run?
Kinnock lead Labour by confronting Militant.
Someone could lead a One Nation Conservative Party by confronting the Little Englanders.
But they won't...
> Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
>
World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
>
Cambridge is one of the wealthiest and most educated seats in the country, if even Cambridge did not hit 50% hard to see anywhere doing so. A solid turnout nationally then at about 35% but not a surge
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
----------------------
Semi-remain? Isn't that like being half-pregnant?
> The May leader exit dater market is bonkers, it'll be the 7th of June ! Gone in with another £200 at 1.3 anyway. It's not the PM exit date market.
I've just gone in with a tiny sum on June at 2.64 to keep you company.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > Wonder who Labour are afraid of?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1131873307907842048
>
> I am genuinely afraid of Johnson, there is no doubt about it. I think with No Deal he will inflict huge damage on the UK economically and almost certainly cause its break-up. I think Corbyn will do the same on the former even without a No Deal, but is less likely to cause the latter. Both are racists.
I loathe Boris Johnson, as he is a lying opportunist. However I suspect Labour will be nervous as it will be an intelligent, if unauthentic, buffoon versus their highly stupid, childishly contrarian buffoon. What a state our politics are in. Brexit, and it's advocates continue to make us an international laughing stock. Italy looks "strong and stable" by comparison.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> >
> >
>
> World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
>
>
What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
> > Repost FPT....
> >
> > Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
> >
> > The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
> >
> > Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.
>
> Theresa May will pass Gordon Brown's time in office at the end of this month.
She is also likely to beat Chamberlain by beginning of July.
Mot sure if reported but in Gloucestershire the three leave constituecies had tornouts in the mid 30's and the three remain in the mid 40's. Reference Gloucestershire Live
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1131877026678411264
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> >
> > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed now May departs.
> >
> > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
>
> It's possible Remain and semi-Remain parties will get more than 50% on Sunday night. That could make things awkward.
The Leave side will likely win most local authority areas though even if the Remain side scrapes over 50% in the popular vote
> Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
> We could possibly see a 50%-er somewhere in Remainia. When are the London suburbs in? Somewhere dutifully civic and Remainy like Richmond perhaps?
London seems to be taking forever . I think the Lib Dems targeted specific cities and areas where they could get a lot of votes rather then use recourses more widely .
And wow I clicked on bf and realise I am large green on July - Sep 2019 exit date for May!!! Check that out (god knows what I was thinking but hey).
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > May genuinely did not understand that she was alienating millions and millions of voters. I guess that is tragic. Johnson will not care. That is different and much more malign.
> > >
> > > We are now heading for civil war, Leavers v Remainers as it looks like the Withdrawal Agreement has failed as May departs and with it any hope of compromise. It looks like hard Brexit and probably No Deal v Revoke and Remain.
> > >
> > > Boris will now lead the Leave side, situation vacant on the Remain side, Corbyn still clearly not going to do so
> >
> > Expect Boris to campaign on a reset and unicorns rather than no deal. He knows no deal will not fly with the Tory MPs and definitely not with parliament.
>
> He will try initially but the EU won't budge and Macron will veto further extension so No Deal hard Brexit v Revoke civil war it will likely be by October
No idea where you have the Macron veto from, the EU are quite happy with the status quo, it is probably better for them than any of remain, deal or WA!
He may well end up with trying to get no deal towards October, and undoubtedly will promise not to rule it out, but to become PM he will need a more nuanced position than an outright no dealer without any further negotiations.
> The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!!
Feeling ill about that market lol
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> >
> >
>
> What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
Desperately blowing their own trumpets of compassion as loudly as possible.
Graham Brady Old Lady of the Gigantic Letterbox
"This Postman Always Delivers"
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1131876993119739904
> The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!!
The actual Betfair question is
When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?
Which is more ambigious than you think when you start looking at it.
Does resignation resulting in ceasing officially immediately or is it when the next leader is appointed.
> Struck me as odd..
>
> https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1131877026678411264
Worth £2 @ 99/1 I think
> Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
>
> We could possibly see a 50%-er somewhere in Remainia. When are the London suburbs in? Somewhere dutifully civic and Remainy like Richmond perhaps?
Or Brighton perhaps?
Looks good for Remain, but who really knows!
> > @isam said:
> > The T May leave date market is crazy, why is anyone talking about anything else???!!!
>
> Feeling ill about that market lol
For what it's worth, I think you're right. Though of course I understand your concern.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Wow! Cambridge turnout apparently 48% .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
> >
> >
>
> What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
I think he means world capital of intelligence passes judgement on most idiotic foreign policy blunder in recent British History. Don't forget, Leavers have had enough of experts, and there are a hell of a lot of them in Cambridge
Thanks for getting in touch and having your query sent over.
We are not settling any Theresa May markets until she officially ceases as leader of the conservative party. While she will step down to make way for a leadership contest on the 7th June, she will not officially leave until a new leader of the conservative party is chosen, hence why the market has not traded out.
But have a feeling I have lost my money somehow.
The market is "officially ceases to be" party leader
May has said she will resign on 7th June.
Are these same things? I am beginning to wonder.
Cliffhanger in the Australian seat of Macquarie, which includes most of the Blue Mountains area.
Liberal: 45,610
Labor: 45,539
88.0% counted.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=indoubt&sort=az&state=all