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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big picture from the turnout figures so far annouced is th

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    > @JackW said:
    > @GIN1138 said:
    >
    > "TM will carry on serving as the Queens monarch until her successor is chosen.
    >
    > What's that I hear? All for Lidders for PM betting slips being ripped up! :D .."
    >
    > .....................................................................................
    >
    > "Queens monarch" !!!!!!!!!!! .... :smiley:

    I'm posting before having my third cup of coffee. What do you expect! :D
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited May 2019

    Is the lot of Tory leaders, the fault line over the EU always gets you in the end.



    Even I got emotional when she was moved to tears.

    Crikey yes me too.

    I think she has been given a bad rap. MPs should have voted for the deal
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    > @Bob__Sykes said:
    > Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.
    >
    > The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.
    >
    > Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.

    Yeah, and as if during the next two weeks the leadership contest isn't going to be going on anyway.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > More turnout information here:
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/andygmckay/status/1131721138025959424?s=21
    >
    > What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout.

    Turnout is up in Bath and East Cambridgeshire whereas it hasn't changed in most areas.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    So the cabinet is unlocked and the poison chalice comes into view ....

    Lets the games begin .....
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    > @junius said:
    > Did anyone else find her speech a bit nauseating ?

    It should have been swift and to the point, without the unseemly legacy pitch at the end.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,453
    edited May 2019
    So Theresa May could formally resign hours after the Tories gain Peterborough.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > Is the lot of Tory leaders, the fault line over the EU always gets you in the end.
    >
    > Even I got emotional when she was moved to tears.

    Your mate Osborne is also crying... Tears of joy! :D
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @KentRising said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > So much for all the voices here saying she was locked in the job until December. They didn't know the Tory Party - which again demonstrates its brutal reputation for moving out the duds. Perhaps though, they should stop putting duds in place to start with.....
    >
    > Eh? It's been death by a thousand cuts. Cruel and drawn-out.

    Death by a million pin-pricks would be closer to the mark.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Why are we waiting another 2 weeks to kick this off? Does her bill come back to the Commons in the interim or are we on hold yet again waiting to see what her replacement can do first? Surely the latter. The Bill would be substantially defeated with May presenting it.

    I really don't see why she could not have resigned at Tory leader today and stayed on as PM as she proposes.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/jerryhayes1/status/1131850939801964545?s=21

    Usual blame game. She was every bit as bad as Cameron and Brown and it wasn't because of the ERG
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    The Conservative Party is already renewing itself. It will simply try to be the Brexit Party with less fascism. That means bye bye from those of us who represent more moderate views, which may make up about 35-40% of their voters. We can only hope the LibDems have the ability to take their place. It will need to become the moderate party of aspiration and good economics. I now agree with Nick (Clegg and Boles)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,453
    GIN1138 said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > Is the lot of Tory leaders, the fault line over the EU always gets you in the end.

    >

    > Even I got emotional when she was moved to tears.



    Your mate Osborne is also crying... Tears of joy! :D

    He’s not really.

    Like me he’s devastated at what has become of the Tory party.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818
    HYUFD said:

    > @El_Capitano said:

    > The cheek of it. Calling on her successor to find compromise. Maybe if she'd learned that lesson a bit sooner we'd have signed an EFTA deal by now and we wouldn't be in this pickle.

    >

    > Or:

    >

    >





    How would EFTA respect the Leave vote when cutting immigration was so big a reason for it?
    Then stay in EFTA and cut immigration.
    Not remotely impossible. Around half of immigration is non EFTA to start with, and we have loads of tools to reduce immigration that are compatible with Free Movement under EFTA rules - we just don't use them.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > The Conservative Party is already renewing itself. It will simply try to be the Brexit Party with less fascism. That means bye bye from those of us who represent more moderate views, which may make up about 35-40% of their voters. We can only hope the LibDems have the ability to take their place. It will need to become the moderate party of aspiration and good economics. I now agree with Nick (Clegg and Boles)

    I'm not sure the Conservative Party was ever really a place for someone with your views. The Lib Dems will do OK but ultimately nothing suggests to me that we are nearing the end of 2 party politics when it comes to a general election.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > The Conservative Party is already renewing itself. It will simply try to be the Brexit Party with less fascism. That means bye bye from those of us who represent more moderate views, which may make up about 35-40% of their voters. We can only hope the LibDems have the ability to take their place. It will need to become the moderate party of aspiration and good economics. I now agree with Nick (Clegg and Boles)

    Sadly this is true, as much as i wanted to vote tory, i couldn't yesterday. The lib dems got my vote.

    Thats about the direction of this country, rather than just Brexit too. Things need to change.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,453
    NEW THREAD
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    I may not agree with much of what he says but I admire TheJezziah for his tenacity in a mostly opposed environment.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @Brom said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > https://twitter.com/jerryhayes1/status/1131850939801964545?s=21
    >
    > Usual blame game. She was every bit as bad as Cameron and Brown and it wasn't because of the ERG

    Cameron was a good PM until he was arrogant enough to think he would win a referendum on a subject that there had been years of lies and misinformation on. Mrs May has been a bad PM. Not helped by the brainless nutters in the ERG though. Perhaps they are about to give us political symmetry by giving us Mark Francois as PM, so that we can have both main parties led by middle aged/elderly men with low IQs and simplistic views of the world
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    JackW said:

    @Jonathan said:



    "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess."



    .....................................................................................................................



    Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.



    The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.

    That all makes sense but the self proclaimed hard men and such will go nuts if she is not just gone.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    > @DavidL said:
    > Why are we waiting another 2 weeks to kick this off? Does her bill come back to the Commons in the interim or are we on hold yet again waiting to see what her replacement can do first? Surely the latter. The Bill would be substantially defeated with May presenting it.
    >
    > I really don't see why she could not have resigned at Tory leader today and stayed on as PM as she proposes.

    Hard to see it as anything other than selfish. Getting past Brown, and meeting Trump with a laughable pretense of still being in power.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Cicero said:
    > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
    >
    > FWIW my guesses:
    > :
    > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
    > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
    > Greens may well break 10%.
    > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
    > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
    >
    > CUK;:game over
    > UKIP: game over
    > May: game over
    > Corbyn?????
    >

    This means the gap between the Brexit Party and the LDs could be very small.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    TGOHF said:

    So this will be the third Con leadership election in a row where the CoTE isn't even in the race.



    Not much of a path to power is it ?

    If remain had won Osbourne would have been a contender. Indeed, he had only just managed to become favourite iirc.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    I may not agree with much of what he says but I admire TheJezziah for his tenacity in a mostly opposed environment.

    Thank you. There are worse ways to frame it such as stubborn, argumentative or contrarian but tenacious is a nice one!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    Pulpstar said:

    I quite like Baker actually, a man of principles unlike the favourite.

    I dislike him but he clearly believes in the goal he wants and technically has a plan unlike most of the others.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770

    Gosh. That was hard to watch at the end.



    The headlines will be around the "need to compromise" bit. My jaw dropped at that.



    Can't understand why wait until 7th June to quit. We need to get on with this and start the leadership contest today. Unbelievable she isn't resigning for another fortnight.

    What difference does it make? They'll campaign now anyway.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @TheJezziah said:
    > I may not agree with much of what he says but I admire TheJezziah for his tenacity in a mostly opposed environment.
    >
    > Thank you. There are worse ways to frame it such as stubborn, argumentative or contrarian but tenacious is a nice one!

    The first three strongly fit the person that you oddly seem to admire so much. For him you would need to add, not tenacious, but thick as mince.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,943
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Cicero said:
    > > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
    > >
    > > FWIW my guesses:
    > > :
    > > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
    > > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
    > > Greens may well break 10%.
    > > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
    > > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
    > >
    > > CUK;:game over
    > > UKIP: game over
    > > May: game over
    > > Corbyn?????
    > >
    >
    > This means the gap between the Brexit Party and the LDs could be very small.

    From my impressions in the South West, I still think that’s too high for Labour and Tories.

    From the conversations I’ve been having, habitual Tory voters voted again, but for TBP.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,943
    > @Mortimer said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @Cicero said:
    > > > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
    > > >
    > > > FWIW my guesses:
    > > > :
    > > > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
    > > > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
    > > > Greens may well break 10%.
    > > > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
    > > > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
    > > >
    > > > CUK;:game over
    > > > UKIP: game over
    > > > May: game over
    > > > Corbyn?????
    > > >
    > >
    > > This means the gap between the Brexit Party and the LDs could be very small.
    >
    > From my impressions in the South West, I still think that’s too high for Labour and Tories.
    >
    > From the conversations I’ve been having, habitual Tory voters voted again, but for TBP.

    Hang on.

    National Tory vote last time was 18%, right? I wouldn’t be staggered if we got anywhere near 15 this time....
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