> @IanB2 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Here are the turnout changes compared to the 2014 EU elections. The average change is just under +3%, suggesting a national turnout in the range 38-39% (I’d bet on London and Scotland being up by more, pointing to a result close to 40%) > > > > > > Durham 5.3% > > Middlesbrough 1.4% > > Copeland North West -2.9% > > South Lakeland 0.5% > > Ashfield 0.3% > > Derby -2.6% > > Harborough 4.1% > > Lincoln 1.8% > > Newark and Sherwood 0.7% > > South Holland -0.8% > > Wyre Forest -3.9% > > East Cambridgeshire 6.1% > > Harlow East -3.6% > > Southend East 0.0% > > Bath and North 6.0% > > Gibraltar 8.0% > > South Somerset 1.7% > > Stroud. 4.1% > > Swindon 0.5% > > Merthyr Tydfil 1.9% > > Neath Port Talbot 3.1 > > Cardiff 9.9% > > Cheshire West and Chester 3.8% > > Sedgemoor 1.1% > > Mid Devon 3.0% > > Carmarthenshire 5.7% > > Wigan -0.5% > > Some of the outlying datapoints - Cardiff, Durham, Bath - suggest that a lot more students may have turned out this time?
"Bollocks to Brexit" cutting through to its target audience?
You say that Corbyn is a great campaigner, but that is based on the 2017 GE alone. In every other election he has campaigned on it has been pisspoor for Labour, whether in the Locals each year, the Brexit referendum, in which he weakly backed Remain, or in these recent Euro elections.
2017 starts to look like the outlier, and we should consider how much of that was an anti May, anti-Brexit vote. Take those away and Jezza looks like he is swimming with no trunks on.
I agree that some of the press coverage of anti-semitism is exaggerated, but it does have basis in reality. The Corbynite anti-semitism is just one particularly nasty feature of a wider bullying tendency. Just look at the misogynistic and vicious abuse heaped on Jess Phillips from the hard left.
Every campaign that has been about Corbyn, so the leadership elections and the GE he has crushed his opponents at the campaigning part (May did of course beat him on votes) the ref, local and Euro elections weren't as Corbyn centric and didn't really consist of the same kind of campaigning from Corbyn.
The bullying smear won't go far with Labour members, especially invoking Jess "Stab him in the front" Phillips and also the Fuck Off to Diane Abbott probably won't help either.
People may feel sorry for the centrists but Left wingers have been on the receiving end of the centrist abuse for years now, no sympathy from the Right Wing media of course but that is not going to help the right in a Labour leadership contest. The misogynistic campaigns against young Labour women, the disgraceful treatment of left wing Jews. The media may buy the innocent victim narrative but the left have been on the receiving end of this crap. They aren't going to turn around and reward the centrists with the leadership for it.
Eliminate the single datapoint at the right of the table, and the trend line would look flat.
Eliminate the single datapoint to the left of that one and the trend line would curve upwards.
Eliminate the trend line and just look at the dots and draw your own conclusions. Trend lines placed on graphs like these, with low and scattered samples, tend to give a false sense of accuracy.
> @DavidL said: > So is our best guess this morning that turnout is marginally up in remainer areas, marginally down in leave areas, flat to marginally up overall? > > On that basis do we expect TBP to slightly underperform their best polling, the Lib Dems to do very well and possibly win London? > > The suggestion on here (not a representative sample of course) is that more Tories than might have been expected reluctantly voted for the party in the end. That might also take the gloss off TBP. Labour seem to have been badly hit by their totally confused and confusing position and to have been a major source of Lib Dem votes.
On the face of it, it seems up slightly overall, with the increase in turnout being slightly higher in Remain than in Leave areas.
What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout.
Here you go, and many thanks to the people last night linking to turnout announcements on Twitter:
> @StuartDickson said: > Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard. > > And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop. > > I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent. > > It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm.
It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background.
That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party.
So you want Labour to win, only on your terms, and the electorate needs to fall in behind that. I wonder why Labour are going backwards fast.
Do you want to try reading my post again, or maybe check you have replied to the right one?
You don't seem to be replying to what I wrote.
To clarify I don't want Boris or Farage to become PM but if they get enough votes to become PM they should do... this is absolutely nothing to do with the electorate falling in behind my views as I don't actually support Boris or Farage.
Is this more clear now or does this sound like me demanding the electorate do what I want?
I am saying what the electorate chooses to do is up to them, pretty much the opposite of what you accused me of.
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout.
Here you go, and many thanks to the people last night linking to turnout announcements on Twitter:
I am sticking with my Wednesday night prediction posted here:
> @Floater said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > Labour below tories? > > Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
I need to go to work. I've emailed myself the spreadsheet at the office but may not be able to keep it updated through the day. I don't think I can post on PB.com, but if I can I'll post an updated graph tonight. We should have at least some of London in by then.
I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up.
I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected.
David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory.
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
And mass abstaining is exactly what I expect to happen in future, which will eventually fracture our national democracy.
Except the recent trend in elections, at national, local and euro level is that participation is on an upward trend. There is no evidence of mass abstention.
Not yet, but I expect it to become so.
There is no such upward trend as you describe either. What you are referring to is the fact you’ve noticed an animation of the Remainer base on the sole issue of Brexit, which is a different point.
> @Andy_Cooke said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > More turnout information here: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/andygmckay/status/1131721138025959424 > > > > > > What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout. > > Here you go, and many thanks to the people last night linking to turnout announcements on Twitter: > > > > > This is a useful graph, thank you.
Question: Certainty to vote is assessed by pretty much all the pollsters and often, I think, subsampled by party. To what extent do we think this is already baked in to their results?
> When the rather lacklustre Owen Smith Challenged in 2016 he got 38.4% of the vote. It doesn't take a lot of switchers frustrated by Corbyn to have a different result. If Labour want to be in government, they need a new leader too this summer. Being left wing is not so much a problem as being pro Brexit and anti-semitic. Without that poisonous baggage being discarded along with Jezza, opposition is all that is possible.
>
> You have to make the Labour membership believe the anti semitism smear to make it effective, Labour members are generally quite politically interested and active (compared to normal people anyway) they know what the media are like.
>
> The Smith 38.4% is gone, who do you think have been the people leaving the party?
>
> If someone else comes in from the left they will be attacked just the same, they don't like the occupation of Palestine, they are anti semitic, etc etc.
>
> Labour members now full well why Corbyn has been attacked constantly, if they wanted a right wing leader and an easier time of it they would have gone for it back in 2016.
>
> Quite frankly there is no point just being the Conservatives but virtue signalling about being slightly nicer, it makes a mockery of democracy. If the country wants Farage or Boris as PM so be it, I'd rather make a left wing offer to the country.
The problem is that when it comes to a GE it's not just Labour members who get to vote. Just for the record I've voted Labour in every GE since 1983, but I won't be doing so at the next GE unless there's a change of leadership, clear opposition to Brexit and expulsion of the anti-Semites.
Most Labour members would rather lose the election than support the occupation of Palestine and a return to centrist policies. If I wanted to win an election with policies I don't support I would have been supporting the Conservatives in the last election.
Maybe I am just unusual but politics for me is about more than winning.
I expect a referendum for any Brexit line will be forced in the next conference.
It's interesting that you put 'Palestine' ahead of other things - especially as that obsession is a cause of the large part of the problem that Labour's got itself into - anti-Semitism.
Just like Corbyn, who's sponsored twice as many EDMs on Israel than he has on Islington.
I recommend Russel T Davies 'Years and Years' where a populist politician - played brilliantly by Emma Thomson - first rises to prominence by saying on a QT equivalent 'I don't give a f*ck about Palestine" - to loud cheers from the audience...
> Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard.
>
> And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop.
>
> I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent.
>
> It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm.
It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background.
That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party.
We need independence quickly before the SNP go the same way as Labour. Some of their top people are showing disturbing tendencies already. Sturgeon is not a patch on Salmond.
> @malcolmg said: > I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up. > > > > I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected. > > David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory.
I'm not particular about who I drink with Malcolm. Although I can't think of an SNP supporter in the group there are some Lib Dems and people who at least historically supported Labour.
> @Foxy said: > PB.COM projecting a landslide for REMAIN? > > I am sticking with my Wednesday night prediction posted here: > > > @Floater said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > > > 31% BXP > > > 21% LD > > > 14% Con > > > 12% Lab > > > 10% Green > > > 4% CHUK > > > 4% UKIP > > > 4% Other > > > > > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > > > Labour below tories? > > > > Can't see it. > > Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads. > > I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD. > > Any one else keen to forecast?
A high turnout because I think so many people vote via postal vote these days, making anecdata about busy / empty polling stations less useful.
Brexit Party will do well because of their simple message and the fact that it's a "free hit" for anyone with a grievance. Not to mention that arrow pointing to the box
Lib dems will also do well largely thanks to "bollocks to Brexit".
Brex + Con + UKIP at 50% or very close, I reckon, representing a country that's as divided now as it was in 2016. I don't know anyone who's changed their mind.
> @TheJezziah said: > < > > Well, lets wait for the votes to be counted. > > You say that Corbyn is a great campaigner, but that is based on the 2017 GE alone. In every other election he has campaigned on it has been pisspoor for Labour, whether in the Locals each year, the Brexit referendum, in which he weakly backed Remain, or in these recent Euro elections. > > 2017 starts to look like the outlier, and we should consider how much of that was an anti May, anti-Brexit vote. Take those away and Jezza looks like he is swimming with no trunks on. > > I agree that some of the press coverage of anti-semitism is exaggerated, but it does have basis in reality. The Corbynite anti-semitism is just one particularly nasty feature of a wider bullying tendency. Just look at the misogynistic and vicious abuse heaped on Jess Phillips from the hard left. > > Every campaign that has been about Corbyn, so the leadership elections and the GE he has crushed his opponents at the campaigning part (May did of course beat him on votes) the ref, local and Euro elections weren't as Corbyn centric and didn't really consist of the same kind of campaigning from Corbyn. > > The bullying smear won't go far with Labour members, especially invoking Jess "Stab him in the front" Phillips and also the Fuck Off to Diane Abbott probably won't help either. > > People may feel sorry for the centrists but Left wingers have been on the receiving end of the centrist abuse for years now, no sympathy from the Right Wing media of course but that is not going to help the right in a Labour leadership contest. The misogynistic campaigns against young Labour women, the disgraceful treatment of left wing Jews. The media may buy the innocent victim narrative but the left have been on the receiving end of this crap. They aren't going to turn around and reward the centrists with the leadership for it.
Corbyn has singlehandedly destroyed Labour. Labour voters like me went elsewhere yesterday because Corbyn's quasi-communism is not what the majority of socially liberal voters want. As for Corbyn and his ilk being dismissed by the centre-left for decades, perhaps that does have something to do with their inability to decouple Israeli right-wing government expansionism with a contempt of the Jewish people.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Does the counting start on Sunday, or do we get the results that day (or both, of course)?
In Scotland the official result will not come until Monday because they won't count votes on the sabbath in the western isles. But the numbers should be fairly clear without their modest contribution.
> I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up.
>
>
>
> I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected.
>
> David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory.
I'm not particular about who I drink with Malcolm. Although I can't think of an SNP supporter in the group there are some Lib Dems and people who at least historically supported Labour.
So you want Labour to win, only on your terms, and the electorate needs to fall in behind that. I wonder why Labour are going backwards fast.
Do you want to try reading my post again, or maybe check you have replied to the right one?
You don't seem to be replying to what I wrote.
To clarify I don't want Boris or Farage to become PM but if they get enough votes to become PM they should do... this is absolutely nothing to do with the electorate falling in behind my views as I don't actually support Boris or Farage.
Is this more clear now or does this sound like me demanding the electorate do what I want?
I am saying what the electorate chooses to do is up to them, pretty much the opposite of what you accused me of.
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
> Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard.
>
> And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop.
>
> I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent.
>
> It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm.
It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background.
That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party.
> @TheJezziah said: > So you want Labour to win, only on your terms, and the electorate needs to fall in behind that. I wonder why Labour are going backwards fast. > > Do you want to try reading my post again, or maybe check you have replied to the right one? > > You don't seem to be replying to what I wrote. > > To clarify I don't want Boris or Farage to become PM but if they get enough votes to become PM they should do... this is absolutely nothing to do with the electorate falling in behind my views as I don't actually support Boris or Farage. > > Is this more clear now or does this sound like me demanding the electorate do what I want? > > I am saying what the electorate chooses to do is up to them, pretty much the opposite of what you accused me of. > > Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory. > > So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want. > > I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it? > > Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners... > > We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning. > > *It seems like a safe guess...
Labour need to change to avoid defeat. Corbynite theological purity has left us impotent.
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
You're not really in a position to talk about weapons, given your 'expertise' leads you to class the rockets that Palestinians fire into Israel as 'fireworks' ...
Some get 'insulted' (in your view) because they stray massively over the line from reasonable criticism of Israel to fanatical pro-Palestinianism - and from reasonable anti-Zionism to anti-Semtism.
> @malcolmg said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up. > > > > > > > > > > > > I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected. > > > > > > David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory. > > > > I'm not particular about who I drink with Malcolm. Although I can't think of an SNP supporter in the group there are some Lib Dems and people who at least historically supported Labour. > > I was joking David
In light of the incredibly obvious and statistically rigorous Remainer landslide that is going to happen based on turnout figures from 3 councils Ladbrokes still have Brexit Party 20-30% 7/1
> @Casino_Royale said: > @AlastairMeeks > > So we didn’t really have a choice. > > That was my original point. > > And mass abstaining is exactly what I expect to happen in future, which will eventually fracture our national democracy. > > Except the recent trend in elections, at national, local and euro level is that participation is on an upward trend. There is no evidence of mass abstention. > > Not yet, but I expect it to become so. > > There is no such upward trend as you describe either. What you are referring to is the fact you’ve noticed an animation of the Remainer base on the sole issue of Brexit, which is a different point.
GE turnout reached a low of 59% in 2001, but since then has been on an upward trend. Other votes too, indeed this Euro election seems to be marginally up, and the Sindy ref set an amazing 85% turnout.
In general turnout seems to go up in closely fought contests and go down in foregone conclusions. As the country is pretty much split down the middle at present, I anticipate more close contests and participation to stay high.
The dream result for Remainers would be BP less than 30% and Lib Dems between 20-30%. This election is nothing other than an opinion poll and it'll depend how it's read. If Remain parties out perform expectations then the MPs should have their loins girded to vote for a second referendum.
Just like Corbyn, who's sponsored twice as many EDMs on Israel than he has on Islington.
I recommend Russel T Davies 'Years and Years' where a populist politician - played brilliantly by Emma Thomson - first rises to prominence by saying on a QT equivalent 'I don't give a f*ck about Palestine" - to loud cheers from the audience...
The problem is some of Corbyn's opponents care about it quite a lot, which is why they make such a fuss about it. If they didn't it would not be such an argument.
We have a similar policy with Saudi Arabia for example but it doesn't turn into a huge argument because we don't have too many Saudi supporters in our ranks.
With the sad loss of Mike Gapes and John Woodcock the Wahabi case is left mostly unmade...
REMAIN vote is "up" but voters have split between between Lib-Dem, Lab, Green and CHUK
LEAVE vote is "down" but most leavers that have turned out have gone for the Brexit Party leaving us with a result very close to what the polls have been forecasting?
FWIW my guesses: : TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% Greens may well break 10%. The Tory vote has held up: c 15% Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
CUK;:game over UKIP: game over May: game over Corbyn?????
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
> @malcolmg said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard. > > > > > > And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop. > > > > > > I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent. > > > > > > It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm. > > > > It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background. > > > > That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party. > > We need independence quickly before the SNP go the same way as Labour. Some of their top people are showing disturbing tendencies already. Sturgeon is not a patch on Salmond.
I rate Sturgeon highly as a politician. Swinney is also capable. But there is very little talent in the cabinet apart from those 2 and it is not at all obvious where the next leader comes from if Sturgeon calls it a day.
REMAIN vote is "up" but voters have split between between Lib-Dem, Lab, Green and CHUK
LEAVE vote is down but most leavers that have turned out have gone for the Brexit Party leaving us with a result very close to what the polls have been forecasting?
Which polls? Someone will be right but I feel it will be luck rather than judgement
> @TheJezziah said: > > @Greenwich_Floater said: > > > My suspicion is that in leave areas, TBP will do will and the rest of the vote might have completely collapsed. > > > > > > In remain areas the remain parties will do well, but the higher turnout also suggest that both leavers and remainers might have been motivated, so I would caution against calling too much for the remain parties just yet. > > > > > > Bloodbath for CON and particularly LAB (versus expectation). > > > > > > LDEMS will benefit most for coalescence around remain, but I suspect Green will have a good result too. Change UK should change their name to Continuity Blair/Cameron, because there is about as much appetite for that. > > > > > > I believe that 7/2 for LDEM to beat LAB in London will be one of the bets of the decade. OK, we seen better odds punts come in, but I reckon the result will show that this was a complete licence to print money, > > > > I would be careful describing areas as Leave or Remain. A very large number of areas were pretty close to the national figures of 52/48, so even in Leave areas there are substantial numbers of Remainers and vice versa. > > > > Nonetheless, a good night for LibDems and Greens, a bad one for Corbyn methinks. I hope we get a Labour leadership challenge this summer. We need an electable opposition. > > Hoping for a leadership challenge is all well and good but I can imagine most Corbyn supporters will be up for it, winning it is a completely different matter. > > I highly doubt it will happen, but if it does Corbyn wins bigger than 2016.
I think Labour are going to rue the day that Corbyn breathed life back into the Lib Dem corpse
> @GIN1138 said: > How does this sound: > > REMAIN vote is "up" but voters have split between between Lib-Dem, Lab, Green and CHUK > > LEAVE vote is down but most leavers that have turned out have gone for the Brexit Party leaving us with a result very close to what the polls have been forecasting?
The 2014 figures from Ashfield show that there are non-Ukip voting leavers to be squeezed in such places.
> @Roger said: > The dream result for Remainers would be BP less than 30% and Lib Dems between 20-30%. This election is nothing other than an opinion poll and it'll depend how it's read. If Remain parties out perform expectations then the MPs should have their loins girded to vote for a second referendum.
Surely a massive swing to LD and Greens means that voters are annoyed that we are not getting on with Brexit and must pass the Deal?
It is only a matter of time until front benchers start speaking such bilge...
So you want Labour to win, only on your terms, and the electorate needs to fall in behind that. I wonder why Labour are going backwards fast.
Do you want to try reading my post again, or maybe check you have replied to the right one?
You don't seem to be replying to what I wrote.
To clarify I don't want Boris or Farage to become PM but if they get enough votes to become PM they should do... this is absolutely nothing to do with the electorate falling in behind my views as I don't actually support Boris or Farage.
Is this more clear now or does this sound like me demanding the electorate do what I want?
I am saying what the electorate chooses to do is up to them, pretty much the opposite of what you accused me of.
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
As I pointed out I just gave one reason in a two sentence post, nobody had asked me to list all the reasons people should vote Labour so I hadn't made such a post.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
Just like Corbyn, who's sponsored twice as many EDMs on Israel than he has on Islington.
I recommend Russel T Davies 'Years and Years' where a populist politician - played brilliantly by Emma Thomson - first rises to prominence by saying on a QT equivalent 'I don't give a f*ck about Palestine" - to loud cheers from the audience...
The problem is some of Corbyn's opponents care about it quite a lot, which is why they make such a fuss about it.
Corbyn evidently cares a lot about it, otherwise he wouldn't have sponsored twice as many EDMs on it as he has on his own constituency
Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats.
Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative.
The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous.
A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
> What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout.
>
> Here you go, and many thanks to the people last night linking to turnout announcements on Twitter:
>
>
>
>
> This is a useful graph, thank you.
Question: Certainty to vote is assessed by pretty much all the pollsters and often, I think, subsampled by party. To what extent do we think this is already baked in to their results?
The certainty to vote calculations are often the most dubious elements - because people invariably over-report their turnout (as it's the socially done thing to do, they'll claim they'll do it even if they won't. Even when anonymous). Pollsters have different ways to try to take that into account, but they're all attempts to fix data that they know is unreliable, and more art than science. In effect, they deliberately introduce a calculated distortion to try to cancel out the real distortion caused by this. Sometimes they'll manage to get it such that the difference in real-vs-reported turnout has little effect on the accuracy (ie the non-turn-outers have similar preferences to the turn-outers), like Survation last time. Sometimes not.
The question (the answer to which we don't know) is how much the distortion put in by their adjustments has done to cancel out the mis-reporting distortion, or whether it's even exacerbated it.
(I wouldn't want to be a pollster. Thankless task, and with so many varying and near-unknowable confounding factors)
> The current Labour policy pretty much consists of > recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, > which is pretty hard to argue against.
So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them.
I can think of some arguments against that.
As I can the bizarre claim that the sewer of Antisemitism is particularly closely related to "criticism of Israel". Even if you accept that anti-Jewish conspiracy theories are magically ok of you say "Zionist" instead of Jew - the mural wasn't about Israel. The Hobson book wasn't about Israel. The Holocaust Denial isn't about Israel. Blood libelling isn't new.
> @Cicero said: > Well campaigning all over bar the counting. > > FWIW my guesses: > : > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% > Greens may well break 10%. > The Tory vote has held up: c 15% > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin > > CUK;:game over > UKIP: game over > May: game over > Corbyn????? >
My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
> @StuartDickson said: > Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. > > Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative. > > The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous. > > A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something.
Counting can take place at any point from now, but local results can only be shared with the RRO (regional returning officer), who is asked to declare “as soon as practicable” after 10pm Sunday.
Councils can, but I’m not sure are obliged to, have some sort of local declaration after 10pm.
In theory it could all be done by 10.30, but I guess some laggards will be counting late.
The handful I’ve heard about have a daytime count on Sunday, I guess to avoid leaks days in advance.
Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere.
In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight.
This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings!
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
As I pointed out I just gave one reason in a two sentence post, nobody had asked me to list all the reasons people should vote Labour so I hadn't made such a post.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
I'm drawing inferences from things you have said. You are drawing inferences from things I have not said (and things that I have given no hint of saying). There lies the difference between us.
"My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
As I pointed out I just gave one reason in a two sentence post, nobody had asked me to list all the reasons people should vote Labour so I hadn't made such a post.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
I'm drawing inferences from things you have said. You are drawing inferences from things I have not said (and things that I have given no hint of saying). There lies the difference between us.
Well he didn’t say that you apparently voted for the Brexit Party!
> @Tabman said: > > @Cicero said: > > Well campaigning all over bar the counting. > > > > FWIW my guesses: > > : > > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) > > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% > > Greens may well break 10%. > > The Tory vote has held up: c 15% > > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin > > > > CUK;:game over > > UKIP: game over > > May: game over > > Corbyn????? > > > > My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
> @JackW said: > @Tabman said: > > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre." > > .................................................................................................... > > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond .. > >
Grimond was of course a tremendous Scottish patriot and lifelong advocate of Home Rule.
> @StuartDickson said: > DavidL > > Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere. > > In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight. > > This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings!
I would agree that SNP flag carriers are nothing like as dominant as Labour ones were in the period you described. But it took a long time to achieve that ubiquity and they are getting there. It is not healthy to have an overly dominant political culture and Scotland is at risk of switching from the dead hand of Labour to the dead hand of the SNP with a disappointingly short interval.
> @TheJezziah said: > I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood. > > But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better. > > > > TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine. > > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against. > > > A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise? > > Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas.... > > There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Which Palestinian government would you recognise? the Hamas one in Gaza or the Al Fatah one in Ramallah?
On arms sales, personally I would end this abomination of arms peddling to all countries outside NATO or similar reciprocal alliances. One of our deepest stains is the arming and training of corrupt despots across the developing world.
Just like Corbyn, who's sponsored twice as many EDMs on Israel than he has on Islington.
I recommend Russel T Davies 'Years and Years' where a populist politician - played brilliantly by Emma Thomson - first rises to prominence by saying on a QT equivalent 'I don't give a f*ck about Palestine" - to loud cheers from the audience...
The problem is some of Corbyn's opponents care about it quite a lot, which is why they make such a fuss about it.
Corbyn evidently cares a lot about it, otherwise he wouldn't have sponsored twice as many EDMs on it as he has on his own constituency
I can't imagine EDMs about your own constituency are a particularly common thing...
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
As I pointed out I just gave one reason in a two sentence post, nobody had asked me to list all the reasons people should vote Labour so I hadn't made such a post.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
I'm drawing inferences from things you have said. You are drawing inferences from things I have not said (and things that I have given no hint of saying). There lies the difference between us.
Well he didn’t say that you apparently voted for the Brexit Party!
You're quite right. I straightforwardly misread that. I owe @TheJezziah an apology.
> @Cicero said: > Well campaigning all over bar the counting. > > FWIW my guesses: > : > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% > Greens may well break 10%. > The Tory vote has held up: c 15% > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin > > CUK;:game over > UKIP: game over > May: game over > Corbyn????? >
My guess FWIW
I guess BP has topped UKIPs 2014 vote. It would be ludicrous if it didn't, they've got the betrayal narrative on their side. I think it'll be low 30s.
LDs will do well I imagine, they got something like 18/19% in locals, I'd expect it in line with that if slightly above.
I'd agree re the Cons holding up. I always thought a bet on them getting under 10% was just giving a generous gift to the bookie.
Lab will be the confounder. there may have been a lot of LAB to LD switchers which balls up my entire prediction.
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
"From the river to the sea" as advocated by Hamas would be my guess.
> @DavidL said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. > > > > Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative. > > > > The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous. > > > > A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses? > > I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something.
Nope. Definitely in two days time. Media full of it. But public interest is lukewarm.
Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
Your reason for the plebs voting Labour is empty and based on electability. Unsurprisingly, the plebs appeared not to have responded particularly well to that empty message and instead voted for one form of principle or another.
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
As I pointed out I just gave one reason in a two sentence post, nobody had asked me to list all the reasons people should vote Labour so I hadn't made such a post.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
I'm drawing inferences from things you have said. You are drawing inferences from things I have not said (and things that I have given no hint of saying). There lies the difference between us.
Well he didn’t say that you apparently voted for the Brexit Party!
You're quite right. I straightforwardly misread that. I owe @TheJezziah an apology.
TBH I actually completely missed that part of your post, I was ranting about the other stuff...
> @StuartDickson said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @StuartDickson said: > > > Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. > > > > > > Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative. > > > > > > The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous. > > > > > > A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses? > > > > I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something. > > Nope. Definitely in two days time. Media full of it. But public interest is lukewarm.
> @oldpolitics said: > TheJezziah: > > > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of > > recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, > > which is pretty hard to argue against. > > So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them. >
Well no, because in this fantasy world every country would presumably also be implementing the policy of not selling weapons to "Islamist pincer movements"
> @Tabman said: > > @Cicero said: > > Well campaigning all over bar the counting. > > > > FWIW my guesses: > > : > > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) > > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% > > Greens may well break 10%. > > The Tory vote has held up: c 15% > > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin > > > > CUK;:game over > > UKIP: game over > > May: game over > > Corbyn????? > > > > My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
> @oldpolitics said: > TheJezziah: > > > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of > > recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, > > which is pretty hard to argue against. > > So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them. > > I can think of some arguments against that. > > As I can the bizarre claim that the sewer of Antisemitism is particularly closely related to "criticism of Israel". Even if you accept that anti-Jewish conspiracy theories are magically ok of you say "Zionist" instead of Jew - the mural wasn't about Israel. The Hobson book wasn't about Israel. The Holocaust Denial isn't about Israel. Blood libelling isn't new. >
Stopping sales of weapons to Israel wouldn't leave them defenceless. There is a time lag between supply stopping and shortage, especially in a closed, non-public market. It would certainly sharpen minds in Israel about the reasons much of the world despises its regime. You're spot on about the cesspit of genocidal opinion on its borders. Israel must and will defend itself. But that doesn't mean others should be complicit in its sadistic apartheid policies that go way beyond self defence and spill over into racist imperialism.
All that said, they did a cracking job on Eurovision. But then, like many things Israeli, it's better than you'd expect if you judge only on the quality of successive governments.
> @Tabman said: > > @Cicero said: > > Well campaigning all over bar the counting. > > > > FWIW my guesses: > > : > > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%) > > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25% > > Greens may well break 10%. > > The Tory vote has held up: c 15% > > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin > > > > CUK;:game over > > UKIP: game over > > May: game over > > Corbyn????? > > > > My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
To me with the FPTP system that will leave us with a landslide populist right coalition of broadly two parties with a minority vote against a fragmented majority opposition of half a dozen parties each fighting for the same voter.
I see that @TheJezziah is backed into a corner yet still valiantly fighting the case of the Jew haters. Although of course he is most certainly not a Jew hater.
As for Corbyn's electability I think that conditions peaked in 2017. re-nastified Tories having just told the EU to fuck off, plus austerity was still a thing then, there was plenty of enthusiasm a load of young Labourites on the streets in red and yellow, and plenty of hitherto Cons supporters voted Lab where I was door knocking.
Love or hate his anti-semitism, the gloss and novelty has definitely come off Jezza.
> @Foxy said: > > @Roger said: > > The dream result for Remainers would be BP less than 30% and Lib Dems between 20-30%. This election is nothing other than an opinion poll and it'll depend how it's read. If Remain parties out perform expectations then the MPs should have their loins girded to vote for a second referendum. > > Surely a massive swing to LD and Greens means that voters are annoyed that we are not getting on with Brexit and must pass the Deal? > > It is only a matter of time until front benchers start speaking such bilge...
My only fear is that Labour will do better than expected. As far as this election goes it's the only vote that tells us absolutely nothing because no one knows what Labour's position is.
> The current Labour policy pretty much consists of
> recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel,
> which is pretty hard to argue against.
So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them.
I can think of some arguments against that.
As I can the bizarre claim that the sewer of Antisemitism is particularly closely related to "criticism of Israel". Even if you accept that anti-Jewish conspiracy theories are magically ok of you say "Zionist" instead of Jew - the mural wasn't about Israel. The Hobson book wasn't about Israel. The Holocaust Denial isn't about Israel. Blood libelling isn't new.
Maybe tone down the evil Muslims stuff in a post where you are pretending to be anti racist, makes for a confusing message overall.
Although Trump pulls it off so why not in the UK as well...
> @JackW said: > @Tabman said: > > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre." > > .................................................................................................... > > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond .. > > Unfortunately it won’t just be the centre ground that prospers. It is likely that the Faragists may end in the high teens as well. Under FPTP anything could happen.
My hunch is that relatively low turnout is a good thing for BXP.. My assumptions are that only a third of the electorate would vote for them in most cirumstances yet their voters are older and motivated meaning a high likelihood of turning out.
If the voters are largely the same people as in 2014 I will work on the following assumptions:
BXP - Will take 75% of 2014 UKIP (3.4m) plus 1m Tory and 500k Lab.
Libs - Will take 1m Lab plus 500k Tory to add to their 2014 total.
So my starting point is BXP 4.9m and Lib Dem 2.5m.
I think both their ceilings will be an additional 1m votes on top of these totals.
Thankfully I have covered BXP below 30% vote share but its hard to see where additional Lib Dem votes will appear from to challenge BXP unless turnout gets above 45%.
> I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
>
> But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
>
>
>
> TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
>
> The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
>
>
> A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
>
> Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
>
> There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Which Palestinian government would you recognise? the Hamas one in Gaza or the Al Fatah one in Ramallah?
On arms sales, personally I would end this abomination of arms peddling to all countries outside NATO or similar reciprocal alliances. One of our deepest stains is the arming and training of corrupt despots across the developing world.
I think the reality is they are separate areas with different governments, not sure exactly how that works but you recognise both as the authority in their area maybe...
Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
> @JackW said: > @Tabman said: > > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre." > > .................................................................................................... > > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond .. > >
Anything significantly (5+) above that for Brexit or LibDems would start to be an issue in Westminster elex and a clear indicator that the burned-in expectations on Brexit might need reassessing.
I've restrained my Brexit prediction slightly on the grounds of quiet remainers and Tories who think Farage is a prick turning out against him. So Brexit probably have the most to grow from those numbers if I'm wrong.
If Lab *did* come behind the Cons, I think Corbyn's term future would - at the very least - start to weaken, certainly without an immediate pivot to something more remainy.
Comments
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Here are the turnout changes compared to the 2014 EU elections. The average change is just under +3%, suggesting a national turnout in the range 38-39% (I’d bet on London and Scotland being up by more, pointing to a result close to 40%)
> >
> >
> > Durham 5.3%
> > Middlesbrough 1.4%
> > Copeland North West -2.9%
> > South Lakeland 0.5%
> > Ashfield 0.3%
> > Derby -2.6%
> > Harborough 4.1%
> > Lincoln 1.8%
> > Newark and Sherwood 0.7%
> > South Holland -0.8%
> > Wyre Forest -3.9%
> > East Cambridgeshire 6.1%
> > Harlow East -3.6%
> > Southend East 0.0%
> > Bath and North 6.0%
> > Gibraltar 8.0%
> > South Somerset 1.7%
> > Stroud. 4.1%
> > Swindon 0.5%
> > Merthyr Tydfil 1.9%
> > Neath Port Talbot 3.1
> > Cardiff 9.9%
> > Cheshire West and Chester 3.8%
> > Sedgemoor 1.1%
> > Mid Devon 3.0%
> > Carmarthenshire 5.7%
> > Wigan -0.5%
>
> Some of the outlying datapoints - Cardiff, Durham, Bath - suggest that a lot more students may have turned out this time?
"Bollocks to Brexit" cutting through to its target audience?
The bullying smear won't go far with Labour members, especially invoking Jess "Stab him in the front" Phillips and also the Fuck Off to Diane Abbott probably won't help either.
People may feel sorry for the centrists but Left wingers have been on the receiving end of the centrist abuse for years now, no sympathy from the Right Wing media of course but that is not going to help the right in a Labour leadership contest. The misogynistic campaigns against young Labour women, the disgraceful treatment of left wing Jews. The media may buy the innocent victim narrative but the left have been on the receiving end of this crap. They aren't going to turn around and reward the centrists with the leadership for it.
Trend lines placed on graphs like these, with low and scattered samples, tend to give a false sense of accuracy.
> So is our best guess this morning that turnout is marginally up in remainer areas, marginally down in leave areas, flat to marginally up overall?
>
> On that basis do we expect TBP to slightly underperform their best polling, the Lib Dems to do very well and possibly win London?
>
> The suggestion on here (not a representative sample of course) is that more Tories than might have been expected reluctantly voted for the party in the end. That might also take the gloss off TBP. Labour seem to have been badly hit by their totally confused and confusing position and to have been a major source of Lib Dem votes.
On the face of it, it seems up slightly overall, with the increase in turnout being slightly higher in Remain than in Leave areas.
> Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard.
>
> And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop.
>
> I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent.
>
> It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm.
It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background.
That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party.
Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
*It seems like a safe guess...
> @Floater said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> >
>
> That's a joke right?
>
> Labour below tories?
>
> Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
Any one else keen to forecast?
> https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP14-32/RP14-32.pdf
>
> 2014 Euro election results by council area
Very interesting, thank you. In case it hasn't already been posted, the Ashfield vote in 2014 was:
Turnout: 30.2%
Ukip - 37.4% (+21.8 pp on 2009)
Labour - 29.3% (+8.7 pp)
Tory - 15.4% (-3.3 pp)
Lib Dem - 7.4% (-9.0 pp)
Green - 3.6% (-0.9 pp)
BNP - 2.6% (-10.9 pp)
Others -4.3% (-6.4 pp)
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
There is no such upward trend as you describe either. What you are referring to is the fact you’ve noticed an animation of the Remainer base on the sole issue of Brexit, which is a different point.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > More turnout information here:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/andygmckay/status/1131721138025959424
>
>
>
>
>
> What needs to be done is a graph of CHANGE in turnout against the referendum result. Because it’s a fact of life that settled middle class areas will have a higher turnout.
>
> Here you go, and many thanks to the people last night linking to turnout announcements on Twitter:
>
>
>
>
> This is a useful graph, thank you.
Question: Certainty to vote is assessed by pretty much all the pollsters and often, I think, subsampled by party. To what extent do we think this is already baked in to their results?
I recommend Russel T Davies 'Years and Years' where a populist politician - played brilliantly by Emma Thomson - first rises to prominence by saying on a QT equivalent 'I don't give a f*ck about Palestine" - to loud cheers from the audience...
> I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up.
>
>
>
> I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected.
>
> David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory.
I'm not particular about who I drink with Malcolm. Although I can't think of an SNP supporter in the group there are some Lib Dems and people who at least historically supported Labour.
> PB.COM projecting a landslide for REMAIN?
>
> I am sticking with my Wednesday night prediction posted here:
>
> > @Floater said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > >
> > > 33% Turnout
> > >
> > > 31% BXP
> > > 21% LD
> > > 14% Con
> > > 12% Lab
> > > 10% Green
> > > 4% CHUK
> > > 4% UKIP
> > > 4% Other
> > >
> > >
> >
> > That's a joke right?
> >
> > Labour below tories?
> >
> > Can't see it.
>
> Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
>
> I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
>
> Any one else keen to forecast?
My guess.
39% turnout.
BREX - 37%
LD - 21%
LAB - 12%
CON - 11%
GRN - 8%
CUK - 3%
UKIP - 2%
A high turnout because I think so many people vote via postal vote these days, making anecdata about busy / empty polling stations less useful.
Brexit Party will do well because of their simple message and the fact that it's a "free hit" for anyone with a grievance. Not to mention that arrow pointing to the box
Lib dems will also do well largely thanks to "bollocks to Brexit".
Brex + Con + UKIP at 50% or very close, I reckon, representing a country that's as divided now as it was in 2016. I don't know anyone who's changed their mind.
> <
>
> Well, lets wait for the votes to be counted.
>
> You say that Corbyn is a great campaigner, but that is based on the 2017 GE alone. In every other election he has campaigned on it has been pisspoor for Labour, whether in the Locals each year, the Brexit referendum, in which he weakly backed Remain, or in these recent Euro elections.
>
> 2017 starts to look like the outlier, and we should consider how much of that was an anti May, anti-Brexit vote. Take those away and Jezza looks like he is swimming with no trunks on.
>
> I agree that some of the press coverage of anti-semitism is exaggerated, but it does have basis in reality. The Corbynite anti-semitism is just one particularly nasty feature of a wider bullying tendency. Just look at the misogynistic and vicious abuse heaped on Jess Phillips from the hard left.
>
> Every campaign that has been about Corbyn, so the leadership elections and the GE he has crushed his opponents at the campaigning part (May did of course beat him on votes) the ref, local and Euro elections weren't as Corbyn centric and didn't really consist of the same kind of campaigning from Corbyn.
>
> The bullying smear won't go far with Labour members, especially invoking Jess "Stab him in the front" Phillips and also the Fuck Off to Diane Abbott probably won't help either.
>
> People may feel sorry for the centrists but Left wingers have been on the receiving end of the centrist abuse for years now, no sympathy from the Right Wing media of course but that is not going to help the right in a Labour leadership contest. The misogynistic campaigns against young Labour women, the disgraceful treatment of left wing Jews. The media may buy the innocent victim narrative but the left have been on the receiving end of this crap. They aren't going to turn around and reward the centrists with the leadership for it.
Corbyn has singlehandedly destroyed Labour. Labour voters like me went elsewhere yesterday because Corbyn's quasi-communism is not what the majority of socially liberal voters want. As for Corbyn and his ilk being dismissed by the centre-left for decades, perhaps that does have something to do with their inability to decouple Israeli right-wing government expansionism with a contempt of the Jewish people.
> Does the counting start on Sunday, or do we get the results that day (or both, of course)?
In Scotland the official result will not come until Monday because they won't count votes on the sabbath in the western isles. But the numbers should be fairly clear without their modest contribution.
> Does the counting start on Sunday, or do we get the results that day (or both, of course)?
Counting I think starts from 7pm on Sunday but results or re-counts cannot be announced until 10pm (or something to that effect).
I know my sister in law will be working to at least 10 even if they finish counting at 8:30...
As for me apparently having voted for the Brexit party, well I really don't know where to start...
> So you want Labour to win, only on your terms, and the electorate needs to fall in behind that. I wonder why Labour are going backwards fast.
>
> Do you want to try reading my post again, or maybe check you have replied to the right one?
>
> You don't seem to be replying to what I wrote.
>
> To clarify I don't want Boris or Farage to become PM but if they get enough votes to become PM they should do... this is absolutely nothing to do with the electorate falling in behind my views as I don't actually support Boris or Farage.
>
> Is this more clear now or does this sound like me demanding the electorate do what I want?
>
> I am saying what the electorate chooses to do is up to them, pretty much the opposite of what you accused me of.
>
> Yesterday you argued that people should vote Labour because they were in your view the only party with a chance of beating the Brexit party. Today you argue that Labour should stick to its current course because its policies were more important than victory.
>
> So yes, this does sound like you demanding the electorate do what you want.
>
> I came up with a good reason (IMO) why people should vote Labour, do you not understand the difference between trying to convince people of something and demanding that they do it?
>
> Of course policies are more important than victory. You didn't vote for the Brexit party despite knowing full well they were very likely to win the Euro elections*. In fact the majority of people on PB (at a guess) didn't vote for the Brexit party despite the fact they look nailed on winners...
>
> We are all quite well informed politically (compared to normal people) either we mostly morons or our politics are informed by something slightly more important than winning.
>
> *It seems like a safe guess...
Labour need to change to avoid defeat. Corbynite theological purity has left us impotent.
[Although the Sabbath is Friday sunset to Saturday sunset...].
> Incidentally, when I was voting, the attendants confirmed that - indeed - I was allowed to vote by drawing a penis in the box.
Did you ask, or did they volunteer the information ?
Some get 'insulted' (in your view) because they stray massively over the line from reasonable criticism of Israel to fanatical pro-Palestinianism - and from reasonable anti-Zionism to anti-Semtism.
Like your party leader ...
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > I had a fairly excellent night in the pub last night. What surprised me was that everyone in our group had voted. I think we are all consistent voters but even so. The group was majority remain but on this very limited sample the Tory vote was holding up.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > I am not sure what to make of this anecdotal material. I still think that overall turnout will be nearer 30% than 40% but it might be a fraction higher than I expected.
>
> >
>
> > David, Heaven forbid you should be drinking with a non Tory.
>
>
>
> I'm not particular about who I drink with Malcolm. Although I can't think of an SNP supporter in the group there are some Lib Dems and people who at least historically supported Labour.
>
> I was joking David
I assumed that Malcolm.
> @AlastairMeeks
>
> So we didn’t really have a choice.
>
> That was my original point.
>
> And mass abstaining is exactly what I expect to happen in future, which will eventually fracture our national democracy.
>
> Except the recent trend in elections, at national, local and euro level is that participation is on an upward trend. There is no evidence of mass abstention.
>
> Not yet, but I expect it to become so.
>
> There is no such upward trend as you describe either. What you are referring to is the fact you’ve noticed an animation of the Remainer base on the sole issue of Brexit, which is a different point.
GE turnout reached a low of 59% in 2001, but since then has been on an upward trend. Other votes too, indeed this Euro election seems to be marginally up, and the Sindy ref set an amazing 85% turnout.
In general turnout seems to go up in closely fought contests and go down in foregone conclusions. As the country is pretty much split down the middle at present, I anticipate more close contests and participation to stay high.
We have a similar policy with Saudi Arabia for example but it doesn't turn into a huge argument because we don't have too many Saudi supporters in our ranks.
With the sad loss of Mike Gapes and John Woodcock the Wahabi case is left mostly unmade...
REMAIN vote is "up" but voters have split between between Lib-Dem, Lab, Green and CHUK
LEAVE vote is "down" but most leavers that have turned out have gone for the Brexit Party leaving us with a result very close to what the polls have been forecasting?
FWIW my guesses:
:
TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
Greens may well break 10%.
The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
CUK;:game over
UKIP: game over
May: game over
Corbyn?????
> > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > Folk who think that Corbyn is a poor leader should take a close look at Richard Leonard.
>
> >
>
> > And the terrifying thing is that Leonard is pretty much the cream of the current crop.
>
> >
>
> > I’m old enough to remember when Labour in Scotland was absolutely jam-packed full of talent.
>
> >
>
> > It is arguable that it was not Better Together that crippled Labour, but a dearth of bright, talented recruits. Negativity might have saved the Union for a brief swan song, but it is fatal for enthusiasm.
>
>
>
> It is not that long ago that SLAB were providing a disproportionate share of the cabinet including many heavy hitters. Labour were not just politically dominant but culturally so as well. Anyone wanting a public sector post or to get on in the Civil Service or top of local government would be expected to have a Labour background.
>
>
>
> That generation has now retired and their replacements are largely SNP appointees. The absence of people like that has destroyed the core of competence and practical knowledge that made SLAB such a formidable force and has embedded the SNP as the dominant party.
>
> We need independence quickly before the SNP go the same way as Labour. Some of their top people are showing disturbing tendencies already. Sturgeon is not a patch on Salmond.
I rate Sturgeon highly as a politician. Swinney is also capable. But there is very little talent in the cabinet apart from those 2 and it is not at all obvious where the next leader comes from if Sturgeon calls it a day.
> Sky News - PM meets Brady at 9:00am and May statement shortly after.
#MenInGreySuits
> Does the counting start on Sunday, or do we get the results that day (or both, of course)?
I asked at the polling station and was told that counting would begin at 6pm Sunday with the results being announced at 10pm Sunday.
> > @Greenwich_Floater said:
>
> > My suspicion is that in leave areas, TBP will do will and the rest of the vote might have completely collapsed.
>
> >
>
> > In remain areas the remain parties will do well, but the higher turnout also suggest that both leavers and remainers might have been motivated, so I would caution against calling too much for the remain parties just yet.
>
> >
>
> > Bloodbath for CON and particularly LAB (versus expectation).
>
> >
>
> > LDEMS will benefit most for coalescence around remain, but I suspect Green will have a good result too. Change UK should change their name to Continuity Blair/Cameron, because there is about as much appetite for that.
>
> >
>
> > I believe that 7/2 for LDEM to beat LAB in London will be one of the bets of the decade. OK, we seen better odds punts come in, but I reckon the result will show that this was a complete licence to print money,
>
>
>
> I would be careful describing areas as Leave or Remain. A very large number of areas were pretty close to the national figures of 52/48, so even in Leave areas there are substantial numbers of Remainers and vice versa.
>
>
>
> Nonetheless, a good night for LibDems and Greens, a bad one for Corbyn methinks. I hope we get a Labour leadership challenge this summer. We need an electable opposition.
>
> Hoping for a leadership challenge is all well and good but I can imagine most Corbyn supporters will be up for it, winning it is a completely different matter.
>
> I highly doubt it will happen, but if it does Corbyn wins bigger than 2016.
I think Labour are going to rue the day that Corbyn breathed life back into the Lib Dem corpse
> How does this sound:
>
> REMAIN vote is "up" but voters have split between between Lib-Dem, Lab, Green and CHUK
>
> LEAVE vote is down but most leavers that have turned out have gone for the Brexit Party leaving us with a result very close to what the polls have been forecasting?
The 2014 figures from Ashfield show that there are non-Ukip voting leavers to be squeezed in such places.
> The dream result for Remainers would be BP less than 30% and Lib Dems between 20-30%. This election is nothing other than an opinion poll and it'll depend how it's read. If Remain parties out perform expectations then the MPs should have their loins girded to vote for a second referendum.
Surely a massive swing to LD and Greens means that voters are annoyed that we are not getting on with Brexit and must pass the Deal?
It is only a matter of time until front benchers start speaking such bilge...
> Sky News - PM meets Brady at 9:00am and May statement shortly after.
Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess.
As you seem to read me saying something I'm not actually saying in almost every single post you reply to is there any point in continuing this conversation?
I tell you what next time you claim something I clearly didn't say I'll ask you to justify why you think Gerard Batten would be the best PM this country ever had...
Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative.
The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous.
A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
Pollsters have different ways to try to take that into account, but they're all attempts to fix data that they know is unreliable, and more art than science. In effect, they deliberately introduce a calculated distortion to try to cancel out the real distortion caused by this. Sometimes they'll manage to get it such that the difference in real-vs-reported turnout has little effect on the accuracy (ie the non-turn-outers have similar preferences to the turn-outers), like Survation last time. Sometimes not.
The question (the answer to which we don't know) is how much the distortion put in by their adjustments has done to cancel out the mis-reporting distortion, or whether it's even exacerbated it.
(I wouldn't want to be a pollster. Thankless task, and with so many varying and near-unknowable confounding factors)
> The current Labour policy pretty much consists of
> recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel,
> which is pretty hard to argue against.
So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them.
I can think of some arguments against that.
As I can the bizarre claim that the sewer of Antisemitism is particularly closely related to "criticism of Israel". Even if you accept that anti-Jewish conspiracy theories are magically ok of you say "Zionist" instead of Jew - the mural wasn't about Israel. The Hobson book wasn't about Israel. The Holocaust Denial isn't about Israel. Blood libelling isn't new.
> Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
>
> FWIW my guesses:
> :
> TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
> Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
> Greens may well break 10%.
> The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
> Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
>
> CUK;:game over
> UKIP: game over
> May: game over
> Corbyn?????
>
My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
> Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats.
>
> Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative.
>
> The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous.
>
> A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something.
Councils can, but I’m not sure are obliged to, have some sort of local declaration after 10pm.
In theory it could all be done by 10.30, but I guess some laggards will be counting late.
The handful I’ve heard about have a daytime count on Sunday, I guess to avoid leaks days in advance.
Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere.
In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight.
This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings!
There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
> Ken Clarke on the Today programme showing why he is one of the very few grown-ups left in politics.
And, probably, in the studio. Not that I'm listening.
"My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
....................................................................................................
Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
> > @Cicero said:
> > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
> >
> > FWIW my guesses:
> > :
> > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
> > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
> > Greens may well break 10%.
> > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
> > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
> >
> > CUK;:game over
> > UKIP: game over
> > May: game over
> > Corbyn?????
> >
>
> My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
______________________________________________
Thumbs up to that last paragraph.
> @Tabman said:
>
> "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
>
> ....................................................................................................
>
> Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
>
>
Grimond was of course a tremendous Scottish patriot and lifelong advocate of Home Rule.
Strong opponent of Polaris and Trident too.
Doubt he’d be a Rennie fan.
> DavidL
>
> Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere.
>
> In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight.
>
> This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings!
I would agree that SNP flag carriers are nothing like as dominant as Labour ones were in the period you described. But it took a long time to achieve that ubiquity and they are getting there. It is not healthy to have an overly dominant political culture and Scotland is at risk of switching from the dead hand of Labour to the dead hand of the SNP with a disappointingly short interval.
> I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
>
> But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
>
>
>
> TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
>
> The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
>
>
> A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
>
> Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
>
> There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Which Palestinian government would you recognise? the Hamas one in Gaza or the Al Fatah one in Ramallah?
On arms sales, personally I would end this abomination of arms peddling to all countries outside NATO or similar reciprocal alliances. One of our deepest stains is the arming and training of corrupt despots across the developing world.
> Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
>
> FWIW my guesses:
> :
> TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
> Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
> Greens may well break 10%.
> The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
> Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
>
> CUK;:game over
> UKIP: game over
> May: game over
> Corbyn?????
>
My guess FWIW
I guess BP has topped UKIPs 2014 vote. It would be ludicrous if it didn't, they've got the betrayal narrative on their side. I think it'll be low 30s.
LDs will do well I imagine, they got something like 18/19% in locals, I'd expect it in line with that if slightly above.
I'd agree re the Cons holding up. I always thought a bet on them getting under 10% was just giving a generous gift to the bookie.
Lab will be the confounder. there may have been a lot of LAB to LD switchers which balls up my entire prediction.
Final Pred: BP-31, LD-22, LAB-17, CON-13, GRN - 6, CUK-3, UKIP-3
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats.
> >
> > Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative.
> >
> > The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous.
> >
> > A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
>
> I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something.
Nope. Definitely in two days time. Media full of it. But public interest is lukewarm.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > Sweden votes on Sunday. Looking bright for the Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats.
> > >
> > > Looking grim for the Greens, Liberals and Feminist Initiative.
> > >
> > > The Social Democrats are very worried about low turnout, and the Moderates (principal centre-right party) are extremely nervous.
> > >
> > > A question mark is the (minor) scandals currently in the media regarding Christian Democrats, Left Party and Sweden Democrats. Most damages the Left Party? Their voters are the least forgiving of elected reps creaming off expenses?
> >
> > I have a Eurodevil from Sweden at the moment. She told me that she went home last weekend to vote amongst other things. Are you sure it wasn't last Sunday? Maybe she was organising a proxy or something.
>
> Nope. Definitely in two days time. Media full of it. But public interest is lukewarm.
Hmm... I will have words with her today.
> TheJezziah:
>
> > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of
> > recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel,
> > which is pretty hard to argue against.
>
> So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them.
>
Well no, because in this fantasy world every country would presumably also be implementing the policy of not selling weapons to "Islamist pincer movements"
> > @Cicero said:
> > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
> >
> > FWIW my guesses:
> > :
> > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
> > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
> > Greens may well break 10%.
> > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
> > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
> >
> > CUK;:game over
> > UKIP: game over
> > May: game over
> > Corbyn?????
> >
>
> My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
15% of Tory loons ….
> TheJezziah:
>
> > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of
> > recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel,
> > which is pretty hard to argue against.
>
> So a policy which if implemented by every country would leave Jews defenceless against an Islamist pincer movement which has explicitly pledged, repeated within the last week, to "exterminate" them.
>
> I can think of some arguments against that.
>
> As I can the bizarre claim that the sewer of Antisemitism is particularly closely related to "criticism of Israel". Even if you accept that anti-Jewish conspiracy theories are magically ok of you say "Zionist" instead of Jew - the mural wasn't about Israel. The Hobson book wasn't about Israel. The Holocaust Denial isn't about Israel. Blood libelling isn't new.
>
Stopping sales of weapons to Israel wouldn't leave them defenceless. There is a time lag between supply stopping and shortage, especially in a closed, non-public market.
It would certainly sharpen minds in Israel about the reasons much of the world despises its regime.
You're spot on about the cesspit of genocidal opinion on its borders. Israel must and will defend itself. But that doesn't mean others should be complicit in its sadistic apartheid policies that go way beyond self defence and spill over into racist imperialism.
All that said, they did a cracking job on Eurovision. But then, like many things Israeli, it's better than you'd expect if you judge only on the quality of successive governments.
I think I have an explanation: förtidsröstning. (Beforehand Voting)
Most busy people do it. You can just nip into any library in the country and cast your vote. Opened about 2 weeks ago. I voted myself ages ago.
If you change your mind you can vote again on polling day and that vote cancels any earlier vote.
Note: it does not need to be your local library: just turn up anywhere in the country with your driving licence and you can vote!
Your friend might not have been aware that she could have voted at the Swedish consulate in Edinburgh.
> > @Cicero said:
> > Well campaigning all over bar the counting.
> >
> > FWIW my guesses:
> > :
> > TBP may not break 30% and may have struggled to top UKIP vote of last time (27%)
> > Lib Dems may break 20% and may be close to 25%
> > Greens may well break 10%.
> > The Tory vote has held up: c 15%
> > Labour may be behind Lib Dems nationally, and definitely in London where Lib Dems may have topped the poll by a big margin
> >
> > CUK;:game over
> > UKIP: game over
> > May: game over
> > Corbyn?????
> >
>
> My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre.
To me with the FPTP system that will leave us with a landslide populist right coalition of broadly two parties with a minority vote against a fragmented majority opposition of half a dozen parties each fighting for the same voter.
As for Corbyn's electability I think that conditions peaked in 2017. re-nastified Tories having just told the EU to fuck off, plus austerity was still a thing then, there was plenty of enthusiasm a load of young Labourites on the streets in red and yellow, and plenty of hitherto Cons supporters voted Lab where I was door knocking.
Love or hate his anti-semitism, the gloss and novelty has definitely come off Jezza.
> > @Roger said:
> > The dream result for Remainers would be BP less than 30% and Lib Dems between 20-30%. This election is nothing other than an opinion poll and it'll depend how it's read. If Remain parties out perform expectations then the MPs should have their loins girded to vote for a second referendum.
>
> Surely a massive swing to LD and Greens means that voters are annoyed that we are not getting on with Brexit and must pass the Deal?
>
> It is only a matter of time until front benchers start speaking such bilge...
My only fear is that Labour will do better than expected. As far as this election goes it's the only vote that tells us absolutely nothing because no one knows what Labour's position is.
Although Trump pulls it off so why not in the UK as well...
> @Tabman said:
>
> "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
>
> ....................................................................................................
>
> Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
>
>
Unfortunately it won’t just be the centre ground that prospers. It is likely that the Faragists may end in the high teens as well. Under FPTP anything could happen.
If the voters are largely the same people as in 2014 I will work on the following assumptions:
BXP - Will take 75% of 2014 UKIP (3.4m) plus 1m Tory and 500k Lab.
Libs - Will take 1m Lab plus 500k Tory to add to their 2014 total.
So my starting point is BXP 4.9m and Lib Dem 2.5m.
I think both their ceilings will be an additional 1m votes on top of these totals.
Thankfully I have covered BXP below 30% vote share but its hard to see where additional Lib Dem votes will appear from to challenge BXP unless turnout gets above 45%.
"Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess."
.....................................................................................................................
Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
> @Tabman said:
>
> "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
>
> ....................................................................................................
>
> Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
>
>
I like to speculate wildly once in a while :-)
Will today finally be it for May? Looks that way, but she has kicked the can before.
Turnout higher than usual, but not significantly so (35ish?)
BREXIT: 30
LD: 20
LAB: 18
CON: 15
GRN: 9
CHUK: 3
UKIP: 3
OTH: 2
Anything significantly (5+) above that for Brexit or LibDems would start to be an issue in Westminster elex and a clear indicator that the burned-in expectations on Brexit might need reassessing.
I've restrained my Brexit prediction slightly on the grounds of quiet remainers and Tories who think Farage is a prick turning out against him. So Brexit probably have the most to grow from those numbers if I'm wrong.
If Lab *did* come behind the Cons, I think Corbyn's term future would - at the very least - start to weaken, certainly without an immediate pivot to something more remainy.