> @kjh said: > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of: > > UK citizens abroad > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue) > > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions? >
Depends whether you mean incorrect disenfranchisement due to administrative incompetence (1000s) or legitimate disenfranchisement in the same way as, say, under-18s are 'disenfranchised' in which case far more.
"From the river to the sea" as advocated by Hamas would be my guess.
Mate, all very well you might have 16 Porsches (and a Ninja?) ready and waiting for when you get your license back but the fact that your man Nick Cooke-Priest was binned off his command for using a FORD GALAXY without permission should be a source of eternal shame to you and the senior service.
> @Tabman said: > > @JackW said: > > @Tabman said: > > > > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre." > > > > .................................................................................................... > > > > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond .. > > > > > > I like to speculate wildly once in a while :-)
Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often?
> @JackW said: > @Jonathan said: > > "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess." > > ..................................................................................................................... > > Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run. > > The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September. > >
Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
UK citizens abroad
EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
For UK citizens in EU 10,000 ish , pure guess, of which I’m one. Not including those 15 years plus who can no longer vote. It has probably hit TBP more than others although mine would have been Lib Dem
I think that's the (possibly only) big effect that Change UK will achieve. Had they not stood up and made the case, the LibDems and Greens would have continued to wibble into the ether on half their current level of support, and Lab would have retained a lot of default "whatevs" votes from not-that-active remainers.
But Change UK's week in the spotlight has made some of those look around. The bad news for Heidi is they ended up with Vince & Co.
I have to whisper this to you both .... Sshhhhh ....
I thought Jo Grimond was one of the finest politicians not to hold public office. His brand of Civic Liberalism, internationalism, pro market liberalism, individualism and married to small state and government had much to commend it.
Still wondering what happened yesterday ! That Survation poll which was the latest one done really threw into doubt any Lib Dem and Green surge and saw Labour doing okay .
But it seems to fly in the face of everything we’ve seen and heard the last few days .
Very strange , the only real certainty at the moment is a BP win. Regardless of the correlation so of higher turnout in Remain areas with those votes split it looks like Sunday will be a good one for Farage and co.
One thing we can all agree on is that the reputation of political polling in the UK continues to deteriorate, with a forecast range for Labour from 13-25%. Some at least of the polling companies have got some serious problems with their approach.
> Maybe tone down the evil Muslims stuff in a post where > you are pretending to be anti racist, makes for a confusing > message overall.
Hamas and the Iranian regime are evil, and claim Islamic justification for their evil. That's about as racist as it would be to point out that Robert Mugabe and Papa Doc Duvalier managed to be simultaneously evil and black, or that Hitler and Leopold II were both evil and white.
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Thank you for your answer.
The answer to my question, whatever it is, is actually very important.
1. If it’s simply the concept of a Palestinian state - territory to be decided later - that’s fine in principle (subject to not meaning the destruction of Israel) but not what is generally understood by recognition of a state. 2. If it’s the Occupied Territories and Gaza, that would seem fine since these are either lands which Israel does not hold (Gaza) or should not hold (the Occupied Territories). 3. If it’s everything from the river Jordan to the Mediterranean (which is what is often shown in maps put out by the Palestinian authorities or what is set out in the Hamas Charter) then not fine at all since that would involve the destruction of an existing state, Israel.
It is not easy to say whether Labour’s policy of recognition of Palestine is one to support without knowing exactly what it means. I would be fine with 1 & 2 for instance but not at all with 3.
> @IanB2 said: > One thing we can all agree on is that the reputation of political polling in the UK continues to deteriorate, with a forecast range for Labour from 13-25%. Some at least of the polling companies have got some serious problems with their approach.
No! This is a good thing. Given the scope for wide differences in turnout I think it is healthy that there are differences in the polling.
> @JackW said: > @Stuart_Dickson and @Icarus > > Welcome back @Stuart_Dickson. > > I have to whisper this to you both .... Sshhhhh .... > > I thought Jo Grimond was one of the finest politicians not to hold public office. His brand of Civic Liberalism, internationalism, pro market liberalism, individualism and married to small state and government had much to commend it. > > I don't think we were overheard.
And great company in the cellar bar of the Oxford Union in the late 60s
> One thing we can all agree on is that the reputation of political polling in the UK continues to deteriorate, with a forecast range for Labour from 13-25%. Some at least of the polling companies have got some serious problems with their approach.
No! This is a good thing. Given the scope for wide differences in turnout I think it is healthy that there are differences in the polling.
There is much to be said for human beings being unpredictable and impossible to predict.
> @Tabman said: > > @Icarus said: > > > > Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often? > > Just dipping my toe whilst there's an election on. Trust all is well at Icarus Towers.
All good though Towers gone to await collapse of housing market/ emigration/ deportation which ever comes first.
Projection done by GeenStijl blog based on results from 690 polling places
PvDA (Labour) 6 seats (5 in the exit poll) VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy) 4 (4) CDA (Christian Democrats) 4 (4) FvD (Forum for Democracy (right wing) 3 (3) Green Left 3 (3) CU SGP (some other Christian party) 2 (2) D66 (social Liberals) 2 (2) 50+ (Pensioners ) 1 (1) Party for Animals 1 (0) PS (Socialists) 0 (1) PVV (right wing Party for Freedom) 0 (1)
It is really close for 50+, Animals, Socialists and PVV regarding the threshold (100/26: 3.85%). They are projected to be in the 3.6-3.9% range
When Brexit take place, Netherlands will get 3 extra seats and threshold go down to 3.45% (100/29) and PS and PVV will get their seat (if they miss it this week).
Compared to 2014 PvDA is up from 3 seats. VDD would gain a seat. CDA lose one. Greens gain 1. CU is unchanged. D66 lost 2 seats. FvD is new and has cannibalized PVV (which got 4 seats last time). Socialists had 2 seats and Animals 1, Pensioners didn't get it in 2014
Meanwhile super interesting interview with GOD this morning on Today (apols if it was covered earlier on here).
He seemed to answer the most pressing question of the moment which is, if nothing happens and we get a no dealer as a PM then the only way he can see us not no dealing is for a VONC in which sufficient Cons vote against their own government "for the greater good" such as to bring it down.
Of course then the mechanics become interesting because if it were to be invoked on, say, Oct 30th, and hence, if it were successful, without a government, where would that leave us?
One thing we can all agree on is that the reputation of political polling in the UK continues to deteriorate, with a forecast range for Labour from 13-25%. Some at least of the polling companies have got some serious problems with their approach.
No, this is good, when polls herd that is when we have problems.
> @DavidL said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > DavidL > > > > Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere. > > > > In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight. > > > > This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings! > > I would agree that SNP flag carriers are nothing like as dominant as Labour ones were in the period you described. But it took a long time to achieve that ubiquity and they are getting there. It is not healthy to have an overly dominant political culture and Scotland is at risk of switching from the dead hand of Labour to the dead hand of the SNP with a disappointingly short interval.
When #ruthforfm comes off, I look forward to you expressing similar concerns about the dead hand of Team Ruth, or whatever 'we're not really the Tories' name they're calling themselves by then.
> Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
>
> The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
>
>
Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??
What possible difference could it make? We’ve been rudderless for months now.
> @Slackbladder said: > > @JackW said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess." > > > > ..................................................................................................................... > > > > Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run. > > > > The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September. > > > > > > Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??
We've been rudderless for 2 years and the economy has thrived. There is a message in there somewhere.
> @kjh said: > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of: > > UK citizens abroad > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue) > > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions? >
There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections.
One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way.
I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
Thank you for your answer.
The answer to my question, whatever it is, is actually very important.
1. If it’s simply the concept of a Palestinian state - territory to be decided later - that’s fine in principle (subject to not meaning the destruction of Israel) but not what is generally understood by recognition of a state. 2. If it’s the Occupied Territories and Gaza, that would seem fine since these are either lands which Israel does not hold (Gaza) or should not hold (the Occupied Territories). 3. If it’s everything from the river Jordan to the Mediterranean (which is what is often shown in maps put out by the Palestinian authorities or what is set out in the Hamas Charter) then not fine at all since that would involve the destruction of an existing state, Israel.
It is not easy to say whether Labour’s policy of recognition of Palestine is one to support without knowing exactly what it means. I would be fine with 1 & 2 for instance but not at all with 3.
If I have time I may try to find out.
There have been statements/Q&A's from leadership/higher ups where the 2 state solution has been backed so assuming it doesn't contradict that then it does require an Israeli state existing.
> @TGOHF said: > So this will be the third Con leadership election in a row where the CoTE isn't even in the race. > > Not much of a path to power is it ?
Depends whether you see editor of a newspaper as "power". Some clearly do....
> @TOPPING said: > Meanwhile super interesting interview with GOD this morning on Today (apols if it was covered earlier on here). > > He seemed to answer the most pressing question of the moment which is, if nothing happens and we get a no dealer as a PM then the only way he can see us not no dealing is for a VONC in which sufficient Cons vote against their own government "for the greater good" such as to bring it down. > > Of course then the mechanics become interesting because if it were to be invoked on, say, Oct 30th, and hence, if it were successful, without a government, where would that leave us?
Conjecture: 1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet 2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke 3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths 4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done 5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October 6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
"From the river to the sea" as advocated by Hamas would be my guess.
Mate, all very well you might have 16 Porsches (and a Ninja?) ready and waiting for when you get your license back but the fact that your man Nick Cooke-Priest was binned off his command for using a FORD GALAXY without permission should be a source of eternal shame to you and the senior service.
(2 Porsches, 1 GTR, 1 MV Agusta - none of them run.)
I never knew "National Car Parks" even though we were in the FAA contemporaneously. He was a FLOBS on the Lynx while I was on Sea Harriers and the Wheelie Bins almost never deployed to the carriers. When I went to the Lynx (non wheelie bin variant) he had moved on to bigger and better things. I think he was in charge of the good biscuits (visitors, for the consumption of) at the Admiralty.
I don't know what was at the bottom of but I would bet my pension it wasn't really about the Galaxy. That was just what they managed to nail him for.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Conjecture: > 1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet > 2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke > 3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths > 4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done > 5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October > 6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
> @nichomar said: > > @Icarus said: > > > > > > Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often? > > > > Just dipping my toe whilst there's an election on. Trust all is well at Icarus Towers. > > Two blasts from a past which seems seems a long time ago!
That's because it was ... 2004 was my first toe-dipping. Some good people no longer with us since then. More power to those who are.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Conjecture: > 1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet > 2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke > 3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths > 4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done > 5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October > 6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
Sky suggesting that if Boris is in the last two and the membership indications are it would be a landslide it is possible it would not get to the membership and Boris would be PM within a month to 6 weeks
> @StuartDickson said: > > @JackW said: > > @Tabman said: > > > > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre." > > > > .................................................................................................... > > > > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond .. > > > > > > Grimond was of course a tremendous Scottish patriot and lifelong advocate of Home Rule. > > Strong opponent of Polaris and Trident too. > > Doubt he’d be a Rennie fan. >
Don't let your open, civic-minded, nationalism blind you too much against Scottish heroes who disagree with you.
Jo was member of the Liberal Democrats until the day he died and I think he would be a very strong support of Willie Rennie today.
The Scottish Lib Dems still support Home Rule... but support for Federalism is NOT support for independence, as Jo would have told you quite forcibly..
> @Foxy said: > > @TheJezziah said: > > I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood. > > > > But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better. > > > > > > > > TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine. > > > > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against. > > > > > > A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise? > > > > Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas.... > > > > There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise. > > Which Palestinian government would you recognise? the Hamas one in Gaza or the Al Fatah one in Ramallah? > > On arms sales, personally I would end this abomination of arms peddling to all countries outside NATO or similar reciprocal alliances. One of our deepest stains is the arming and training of corrupt despots across the developing world.
Yep. 100% on board with this. We have done ourselves no favours with our arms trade to dodgy countries over the years.
> @DavidL said: > > @Slackbladder said: > > > @JackW said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > > > "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess." > > > > > > ..................................................................................................................... > > > > > > Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run. > > > > > > The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September. > > > > > > > > > > Can we really go rudderless for 3 months?? > > We've been rudderless for 2 years and the economy has thrived. There is a message in there somewhere.
From the economic point of view the Brexit doldrums are not the biggest problem. The ship sails on. It is the iceburg on 31st Oct that presents the small obstacle while we have no captain.
Indeed. Which means it would have to happen before that. Anyone know the cut off, timing-wise, of VONCs and aftermaths? Plus what are the scenarios? Govt loses? Then what - automatic Lab govt (with help from others or minority)? or GE? Or?
> I know but #MilkshakeTruthers has become a thing which really worries me.
Yes. No-one believes anything now that shows their side in a bad light. But unfortunately there has been so much lying that people are right to be sceptical, but somehow we need to be fair in our scepticism and have some means of sorting truth from fiction.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @kjh said: > > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of: > > > > UK citizens abroad > > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue) > > > > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions? > > > > There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections. > > One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way. > > I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
_____________________________________
The questions are I assume:
Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale?
Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds?
How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote?
For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote?
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @kjh said: > > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of: > > > > UK citizens abroad > > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue) > > > > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions? > > > > There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections. > > One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way. > > I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
I am based in Asia and was disenfranchised both yesterday and at the 2017 General, despite registering for an overseas ballot on the day each campaign was launched. I received my EU voting ballot on the 22nd. No surprise, it was only posted on the 10th and Royal Mail specify an average of 7 business days to reach this part of the world.
In 2017 neither I or my wife received ballots at all! This should be seen as a democratic outrage but I have no idea who I can complain to that will take any notice. I have written to the relevant local authority who don't seem to care. Will the Electoral Commission take any notice? I doubt it.
I have no idea what's gone wrong, both the 2015 general election and 2016 referendum were efficiently run. I hesitate to call conspiracy when c0ckup is the more likely explanation but Donald Farage's "drain the swamp" rhetoric gets more attractive by the day when you're on the receiving end of such shoddy service as a voter.
I assume the point is that she is not a minister but works at CCHQ which is supposed to be loyal to May as long as she is PM. Head of a needle stuff but I can just about see the difference. Disloyal ministers vs loyal staff.
> @Cicero said: > Don't let your open, civic-minded, nationalism blind you too much against Scottish heroes who disagree with you. > > Jo was member of the Liberal Democrats until the day he died and I think he would be a very strong support of Willie Rennie today. > > The Scottish Lib Dems still support Home Rule... but support for Federalism is NOT support for independence, as Jo would have told you quite forcibly..
LD support for Federalism would also appear to be doing the square root of fck all when they'd had their best chance to do anything about in almost 100 years. Still, they did get a diddy referendum on electoral reform which they lost, so swings & roundabouts.
> @Foxy said: > > @Brom said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392 > > > > 1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that. > > 1/3 of a 1/3 turnout? so 1/9 of eligible voters. > > or 1/6 of GE voters? > > quite a significant minority, but similar to UKIP in 2015, and at the lower end of what right wing populists get in other countries.
Their aim will be to win the election. If they do that and poll over 30% its been a massive success and they'll get all the headlines.
I think a lot rests upon the 2014 Tory voters, many of whom they will have plundered. Were this group more leavey than Tory gen election voters or were they more remainey because UKIP 2014 had already stolen the most leavey Tories.
Part of me wants Theresa May to march out, announce that she has reflected carefully and concluded that it is in the nation's interests that she continues in office, exhort MPs to pass MV901 and then turn on her kitten heels and walk back into Number 10 muttering "nothing has changed".
> @Foxy said: > > @Brom said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392 > > > > 1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that. > > 1/3 of a 1/3 turnout? so 1/9 of eligible voters. > > or 1/6 of GE voters? > > quite a significant minority, but similar to UKIP in 2015, and at the lower end of what right wing populists get in other countries.
And pretty conclusive evidence that only a small minority of the electorate support a no deal Brexit. Food for thought for Tory leadership candidates.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @kjh said: > > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of: > > > > UK citizens abroad > > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue) > > > > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions? > > > > There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections. > > One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way. > > I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
I find it absurd that people should be expected to take the initiative to find out that they need to fill in another form. All those on the electoral roll should have been sent a letter in good time informing them. This is what the German authorities managed to do with me, a Briton resident in Germany. If they hadn't I would have had no idea. At some point I would have wondered why I hadn't been sent a polling card, by which time it would have been too late.
If you imagine you would behave any differently then congratulations but I guess you'd be in a tiny minority.
> @kjh said: > > The questions are I assume: > > Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale? > > Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds? > > How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote? > > For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote?
Yes. A judge-led enquiry? (Still missing that chaos from Miliband)
I think the requirement for an additional declaration form is also being questioned as potentially contrary to EU law, as it is an additional barrier that UK citizens don't have to cross and so makes it harder for EU citizens to exercise their right to vote.
> @JackW said: > > @tlg86 said: > > Will the government crest be on the podium? > > No, If the announcement is simply for the Conservative Party leadership.
If I remember rightly, Cameron had it on the podium when he announced he was going. But I have a feeling that it might not be on the podium this time as it's a bit different to announcing your intention to resign as PM the morning after a national referendum.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @kjh said: > > > > The questions are I assume: > > > > Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale? > > > > Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds? > > > > How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote? > > > > For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote? > > Yes. A judge-led enquiry? (Still missing that chaos from Miliband) > > I think the requirement for an additional declaration form is also being questioned as potentially contrary to EU law, as it is an additional barrier that UK citizens don't have to cross and so makes it harder for EU citizens to exercise their right to vote.
I doubt that, I would have to sign a similar form to vote here in Germany. It's designed to prevent people voting in the EU elections in more than one country
Comments
UK citizens abroad
EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
> https://twitter.com/Sean_Kemp/status/1131831837960134656
I'm not sure the Standard is recruiting right now..
> Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
>
> UK citizens abroad
> EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
>
> Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
>
Depends whether you mean incorrect disenfranchisement due to administrative incompetence (1000s) or legitimate disenfranchisement in the same way as, say, under-18s are 'disenfranchised' in which case far more.
I wonder to what extent the Brexit Nigel Party will follow in Ukip's footsteps.
> > @JackW said:
> > @Tabman said:
> >
> > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
> >
> > ....................................................................................................
> >
> > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
> >
> >
>
> I like to speculate wildly once in a while :-)
Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often?
> @Jonathan said:
>
> "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess."
>
> .....................................................................................................................
>
> Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
>
> The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
>
>
Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??
> https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1131830382721216512
I think that's the (possibly only) big effect that Change UK will achieve. Had they not stood up and made the case, the LibDems and Greens would have continued to wibble into the ether on half their current level of support, and Lab would have retained a lot of default "whatevs" votes from not-that-active remainers.
But Change UK's week in the spotlight has made some of those look around. The bad news for Heidi is they ended up with Vince & Co.
Welcome back @Stuart_Dickson.
I have to whisper this to you both .... Sshhhhh ....
I thought Jo Grimond was one of the finest politicians not to hold public office. His brand of Civic Liberalism, internationalism, pro market liberalism, individualism and married to small state and government had much to commend it.
I don't think we were overheard.
But it seems to fly in the face of everything we’ve seen and heard the last few days .
Very strange , the only real certainty at the moment is a BP win. Regardless of the correlation so of higher turnout in Remain areas with those votes split it looks like Sunday will be a good one for Farage and co.
> Maybe tone down the evil Muslims stuff in a post where
> you are pretending to be anti racist, makes for a confusing
> message overall.
Hamas and the Iranian regime are evil, and claim Islamic justification for their evil. That's about as racist as it would be to point out that Robert Mugabe and Papa Doc Duvalier managed to be simultaneously evil and black, or that Hitler and Leopold II were both evil and white.
The answer to my question, whatever it is, is actually very important.
1. If it’s simply the concept of a Palestinian state - territory to be decided later - that’s fine in principle (subject to not meaning the destruction of Israel) but not what is generally understood by recognition of a state.
2. If it’s the Occupied Territories and Gaza, that would seem fine since these are either lands which Israel does not hold (Gaza) or should not hold (the Occupied Territories).
3. If it’s everything from the river Jordan to the Mediterranean (which is what is often shown in maps put out by the Palestinian authorities or what is set out in the Hamas Charter) then not fine at all since that would involve the destruction of an existing state, Israel.
It is not easy to say whether Labour’s policy of recognition of Palestine is one to support without knowing exactly what it means. I would be fine with 1 & 2 for instance but not at all with 3.
If I have time I may try to find out.
>
> Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often?
Just dipping my toe whilst there's an election on. Trust all is well at Icarus Towers.
> One thing we can all agree on is that the reputation of political polling in the UK continues to deteriorate, with a forecast range for Labour from 13-25%. Some at least of the polling companies have got some serious problems with their approach.
No! This is a good thing. Given the scope for wide differences in turnout I think it is healthy that there are differences in the polling.
"Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??"
...................................................................
The government has been "rudderless" since Teresa May lost her majority, so I'm not too sure anyone will notice the difference.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1131695589656322055
You could say the same about NO DEAL perhaps?
> @Stuart_Dickson and @Icarus
>
> Welcome back @Stuart_Dickson.
>
> I have to whisper this to you both .... Sshhhhh ....
>
> I thought Jo Grimond was one of the finest politicians not to hold public office. His brand of Civic Liberalism, internationalism, pro market liberalism, individualism and married to small state and government had much to commend it.
>
> I don't think we were overheard.
And great company in the cellar bar of the Oxford Union in the late 60s
> https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
https://twitter.com/NATS/status/1131836243602485248
> > @Icarus said:
> >
> > Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often?
>
> Just dipping my toe whilst there's an election on. Trust all is well at Icarus Towers.
All good though Towers gone to await collapse of housing market/ emigration/ deportation which ever comes first.
Projection done by GeenStijl blog based on results from 690 polling places
PvDA (Labour) 6 seats (5 in the exit poll)
VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy) 4 (4)
CDA (Christian Democrats) 4 (4)
FvD (Forum for Democracy (right wing) 3 (3)
Green Left 3 (3)
CU SGP (some other Christian party) 2 (2)
D66 (social Liberals) 2 (2)
50+ (Pensioners ) 1 (1)
Party for Animals 1 (0)
PS (Socialists) 0 (1)
PVV (right wing Party for Freedom) 0 (1)
It is really close for 50+, Animals, Socialists and PVV regarding the threshold (100/26: 3.85%). They are projected to be in the 3.6-3.9% range
When Brexit take place, Netherlands will get 3 extra seats and threshold go down to 3.45% (100/29) and PS and PVV will get their seat (if they miss it this week).
Compared to 2014 PvDA is up from 3 seats. VDD would gain a seat. CDA lose one. Greens gain 1. CU is unchanged. D66 lost 2 seats. FvD is new and has cannibalized PVV (which got 4 seats last time). Socialists had 2 seats and Animals 1, Pensioners didn't get it in 2014
He seemed to answer the most pressing question of the moment which is, if nothing happens and we get a no dealer as a PM then the only way he can see us not no dealing is for a VONC in which sufficient Cons vote against their own government "for the greater good" such as to bring it down.
Of course then the mechanics become interesting because if it were to be invoked on, say, Oct 30th, and hence, if it were successful, without a government, where would that leave us?
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
>
> So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
No - she supports Rabb
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > DavidL
> >
> > Not so sure that the SNP has succeeded in dominating Scottish public life in the same way as Labour managed during 1960s - 2000. Their placemen were absolutely everywhere.
> >
> > In contrast, the SNP has been exceedingly fair. Posts are largely filled on merit. Meaning that a surprisingly large number of public posts are held by Lib Dems and Tories. Way in excess of their electoral weight.
> >
> > This causes some strange conflicts at certain board meetings!
>
> I would agree that SNP flag carriers are nothing like as dominant as Labour ones were in the period you described. But it took a long time to achieve that ubiquity and they are getting there. It is not healthy to have an overly dominant political culture and Scotland is at risk of switching from the dead hand of Labour to the dead hand of the SNP with a disappointingly short interval.
When #ruthforfm comes off, I look forward to you expressing similar concerns about the dead hand of Team Ruth, or whatever 'we're not really the Tories' name they're calling themselves by then.
Not much of a path to power is it ?
> https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392
1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that.
> > @JackW said:
> > @Jonathan said:
> >
> > "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess."
> >
> > .....................................................................................................................
> >
> > Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
> >
> > The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
> >
> >
>
> Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??
We've been rudderless for 2 years and the economy has thrived. There is a message in there somewhere.
> Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
>
> UK citizens abroad
> EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
>
> Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
>
There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections.
One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way.
I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
> https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1131834789395402752
That looks like good news for the lib dems and remain
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
> >
> > So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
>
> No - she supports Rabb
And she can't do that without resigning? Odd!
> So this will be the third Con leadership election in a row where the CoTE isn't even in the race.
>
> Not much of a path to power is it ?
Depends whether you see editor of a newspaper as "power". Some clearly do....
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
> > >
> > > So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
> >
> > No - she supports Rabb
> 3
> And she can't do that without resigning? Odd!
It is indeed
Excellent thread.
https://twitter.com/harveyschmacker/status/1131620668657868804?s=21
If you’re a milkshake truther.
> Meanwhile super interesting interview with GOD this morning on Today (apols if it was covered earlier on here).
>
> He seemed to answer the most pressing question of the moment which is, if nothing happens and we get a no dealer as a PM then the only way he can see us not no dealing is for a VONC in which sufficient Cons vote against their own government "for the greater good" such as to bring it down.
>
> Of course then the mechanics become interesting because if it were to be invoked on, say, Oct 30th, and hence, if it were successful, without a government, where would that leave us?
Outside the EU, with No Deal.....
In 2014 YouGov vastly overestimated turnout but still got the final result pretty good.
> So it was a false flag attack.
>
> Excellent thread.
>
> https://twitter.com/harveyschmacker/status/1131620668657868804?s=21
>
> If you’re a milkshake truther.
the evidence is hardly overwhelming!!
1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet
2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke
3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths
4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done
5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October
6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
I never knew "National Car Parks" even though we were in the FAA contemporaneously. He was a FLOBS on the Lynx while I was on Sea Harriers and the Wheelie Bins almost never deployed to the carriers. When I went to the Lynx (non wheelie bin variant) he had moved on to bigger and better things. I think he was in charge of the good biscuits (visitors, for the consumption of) at the Admiralty.
I don't know what was at the bottom of but I would bet my pension it wasn't really about the Galaxy. That was just what they managed to nail him for.
> So it was a false flag attack.
>
> Excellent thread.
Liked this.
https://twitter.com/Kennyf1283/status/1131821731629457408
Must admit my first thought was that the poor old soul had an accident at breakfast.
> Conjecture:
> 1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet
> 2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke
> 3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths
> 4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done
> 5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October
> 6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
Why no call the election for 31 Oct?
"We've been rudderless for 2 years and the economy has thrived. There is a message in there somewhere."
........................................................................................................................
Because of or in spite of ?
> > @Icarus said:
>
> >
>
> > Good morning Tabbers (and Jack) do you come here often?
>
>
>
> Just dipping my toe whilst there's an election on. Trust all is well at Icarus Towers.
>
> Two blasts from a past which seems seems a long time ago!
That's because it was ... 2004 was my first toe-dipping. Some good people no longer with us since then. More power to those who are.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392
>
> 1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that.
1/3 of a 1/3 turnout? so 1/9 of eligible voters.
or 1/6 of GE voters?
quite a significant minority, but similar to UKIP in 2015, and at the lower end of what right wing populists get in other countries.
http://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/21/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-tied-atop-democratic-fiel/
Iowa is the first Democratic caucus to vote next year
> Conjecture:
> 1. The Tory leadership contest will be initially brutal then quickly calm down into obvious lead candidates for WTO leave / One Nation / Wet
> 2. The final two will both preach unity whilst colleagues quietly despair / puke
> 3. The new PM installed in July quickly concludes their election changes nothing with regards to parliamentary maths
> 4. The new PM will support either WTO or a referendum to back the deal but will need a change in the parliamentary maths to get it done
> 5. There will be a general election on Thursday 17th October
> 6. Newly elected Prime Minister Farage leads us to WTO on 31st October
Sky suggesting that if Boris is in the last two and the membership indications are it would be a landslide it is possible it would not get to the membership and Boris would be PM within a month to 6 weeks
> > @JackW said:
> > @Tabman said:
> >
> > "My hope is that Corbyn stays where he is. If you couple that with a populist right-wing Tory leader, it may well precipitate the realignment we so desperately need between nationalists of the left and right, and internationalists of the liberal centre."
> >
> > ....................................................................................................
> >
> > Tabbers channeling his inner Jo Grimond ..
> >
> >
>
> Grimond was of course a tremendous Scottish patriot and lifelong advocate of Home Rule.
>
> Strong opponent of Polaris and Trident too.
>
> Doubt he’d be a Rennie fan.
>
Don't let your open, civic-minded, nationalism blind you too much against Scottish heroes who disagree with you.
Jo was member of the Liberal Democrats until the day he died and I think he would be a very strong support of Willie Rennie today.
The Scottish Lib Dems still support Home Rule... but support for Federalism is NOT support for independence, as Jo would have told you quite forcibly..
> > @TheJezziah said:
> > I do find this far left obsession with Palestine peculiar. I have been there running teaching courses in the past, and am sympathetic to the plight of those in the occupied territories denied nationhood.
> >
> > But it will not shift my vote at all. Indeed I believe that the least we interfere in Middle East politics the better, we have a strong track record over the last century there of repeated interventions there that make things worse and shred our international reputation. The sooner that we stop messing with the region the better.
> >
> >
> >
> > TBH the level of passion probably goes up the more they get insulted for it, because it becomes a passionate argument it takes on far more importance than it originally did for some people I imagine.
> >
> > The current Labour policy pretty much consists of recognising Palestine and stopping weapons sales to Israel, which is pretty hard to argue against.
> >
> >
> > A genuine question this: what land area is the Palestine which Labour would recognise?
> >
> > Good question, I don't actually know where to find the answer or what it is TBH. Could just be a vague recognition of a Palestinian state rather than particularly territory or if not related to the founding(48 maybe), '67 or based on some kind of UN recognised areas....
> >
> > There are a number of countries that recognise Palestine although I'm not sure how exactly they do it territory wise.
>
> Which Palestinian government would you recognise? the Hamas one in Gaza or the Al Fatah one in Ramallah?
>
> On arms sales, personally I would end this abomination of arms peddling to all countries outside NATO or similar reciprocal alliances. One of our deepest stains is the arming and training of corrupt despots across the developing world.
Yep. 100% on board with this. We have done ourselves no favours with our arms trade to dodgy countries over the years.
> > @Slackbladder said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > >
> > > "Surely the only sensible thing is to start officially the leadership election now and have the first vote day after recess."
> > >
> > > .....................................................................................................................
> > >
> > > Despite my criticism on the PM I believe she should be allowed to go with dignity. I'd say announce she's resigning as Conservative leader on a date shortly after the Trump visit - June 10th. This allows the runners and riders time to take soundings and determine whether to run.
> > >
> > > The contest will take a few months to run, whilst she remains PM, and the new incumbent should be in place by late August or early September.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Can we really go rudderless for 3 months??
>
> We've been rudderless for 2 years and the economy has thrived. There is a message in there somewhere.
From the economic point of view the Brexit doldrums are not the biggest problem. The ship sails on. It is the iceburg on 31st Oct that presents the small obstacle while we have no captain.
> Biden and Sanders tied on 24% each in an Iowa Democratic nomination poll this week with Buttigieg third on 14%.
>
> http://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/21/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-tied-atop-democratic-fiel/
>
> Iowa is the first Democratic caucus to vote next year
2008 (January 3): Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), and Joe Biden (1%)
> I know but #MilkshakeTruthers has become a thing which really worries me.
Yes. No-one believes anything now that shows their side in a bad light. But unfortunately there has been so much lying that people are right to be sceptical, but somehow we need to be fair in our scepticism and have some means of sorting truth from fiction.
> > @kjh said:
> > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
> >
> > UK citizens abroad
> > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
> >
> > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
> >
>
> There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections.
>
> One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way.
>
> I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
_____________________________________
The questions are I assume:
Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale?
Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds?
How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote?
For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > So it was a false flag attack.
>
> >
>
> > Excellent thread.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/harveyschmacker/status/1131620668657868804
>
>
>
> >
>
> > If you’re a milkshake truther.
>
>
>
>
>
> Liked this.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/Kennyf1283/status/1131821731629457408
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Must admit my first thought was that the poor old soul had an accident at breakfast.
>
> Magnificent.
You've got to laugh at some of the left wing conspiracy theories. Think every twitter user should be sent a tin foil hat upon registering!
> Are we on podium watch today?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1131842072183545856
Looks like it..
> > @kjh said:
> > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
> >
> > UK citizens abroad
> > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
> >
> > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
> >
>
> There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections.
>
> One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way.
>
> I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
I am based in Asia and was disenfranchised both yesterday and at the 2017 General, despite registering for an overseas ballot on the day each campaign was launched. I received my EU voting ballot on the 22nd. No surprise, it was only posted on the 10th and Royal Mail specify an average of 7 business days to reach this part of the world.
In 2017 neither I or my wife received ballots at all! This should be seen as a democratic outrage but I have no idea who I can complain to that will take any notice. I have written to the relevant local authority who don't seem to care. Will the Electoral Commission take any notice? I doubt it.
I have no idea what's gone wrong, both the 2015 general election and 2016 referendum were efficiently run. I hesitate to call conspiracy when c0ckup is the more likely explanation but Donald Farage's "drain the swamp" rhetoric gets more attractive by the day when you're on the receiving end of such shoddy service as a voter.
> Biden and Sanders tied on 24% each in an Iowa Democratic nomination poll this week with Buttigieg third on 14%.
>
>
>
> http://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/21/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-tied-atop-democratic-fiel/
>
>
>
> Iowa is the first Democratic caucus to vote next year
>
> Dems starting to feel the Bern, looking like the only one who could challenge Biden, Warren an outside bet.
2016 (February 1): Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%), and Martin O'Malley (0.5%)
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
> > > >
> > > > So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
> > >
> > > No - she supports Rabb
> > 3
> > And she can't do that without resigning? Odd!
>
> It is indeed
I assume the point is that she is not a minister but works at CCHQ which is supposed to be loyal to May as long as she is PM. Head of a needle stuff but I can just about see the difference. Disloyal ministers vs loyal staff.
> Don't let your open, civic-minded, nationalism blind you too much against Scottish heroes who disagree with you.
>
> Jo was member of the Liberal Democrats until the day he died and I think he would be a very strong support of Willie Rennie today.
>
> The Scottish Lib Dems still support Home Rule... but support for Federalism is NOT support for independence, as Jo would have told you quite forcibly..
LD support for Federalism would also appear to be doing the square root of fck all when they'd had their best chance to do anything about in almost 100 years. Still, they did get a diddy referendum on electoral reform which they lost, so swings & roundabouts.
> Will the government crest be on the podium?
I doubt it
> > @Brom said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392
> >
> > 1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that.
>
> 1/3 of a 1/3 turnout? so 1/9 of eligible voters.
>
> or 1/6 of GE voters?
>
> quite a significant minority, but similar to UKIP in 2015, and at the lower end of what right wing populists get in other countries.
Their aim will be to win the election. If they do that and poll over 30% its been a massive success and they'll get all the headlines.
I think a lot rests upon the 2014 Tory voters, many of whom they will have plundered. Were this group more leavey than Tory gen election voters or were they more remainey because UKIP 2014 had already stolen the most leavey Tories.
> > @Brom said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/NinaDSchick/status/1131836153412411392
> >
> > 1/3 of the vote would be incredible. I suspect BXP would bite your hand off if they were offered that.
>
> 1/3 of a 1/3 turnout? so 1/9 of eligible voters.
>
> or 1/6 of GE voters?
>
> quite a significant minority, but similar to UKIP in 2015, and at the lower end of what right wing populists get in other countries.
And pretty conclusive evidence that only a small minority of the electorate support a no deal Brexit. Food for thought for Tory leadership candidates.
> > @kjh said:
> > Does anyone have any idea of the size of the issue re disenfranchisement of:
> >
> > UK citizens abroad
> > EU citizens here (plus the added Irish issue)
> >
> > Are we talking the odd 100/1000 or 100,000s/Millions?
> >
>
> There are large numbers of people - probably well into the 100,000s - who were not aware until yesterday that they had to complete an extra form to register to vote for EU elections on top of what they had to do to register for the local elections.
>
> One of these people who is of my acquaintance is annoyed by that but takes a certain degree of responsibility. Those are the rules, they are disappointed that they didn't find out early enough what they needed to do. Is such a person disenfranchised? You can make the case either way.
>
> I think the numbers of people where it is more clearcut - people who returned forms but the forms weren't processed in time, or Irish citizens incorrectly told they should have completed a form - will be a smaller number, probably in the 1,000s. Quite likely way more numerous than any fraud by impersonation.
I find it absurd that people should be expected to take the initiative to find out that they need to fill in another form. All those on the electoral roll should have been sent a letter in good time informing them. This is what the German authorities managed to do with me, a Briton resident in Germany. If they hadn't I would have had no idea. At some point I would have wondered why I hadn't been sent a polling card, by which time it would have been too late.
If you imagine you would behave any differently then congratulations but I guess you'd be in a tiny minority.
>
> The questions are I assume:
>
> Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale?
>
> Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds?
>
> How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote?
>
> For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote?
Yes. A judge-led enquiry? (Still missing that chaos from Miliband)
I think the requirement for an additional declaration form is also being questioned as potentially contrary to EU law, as it is an additional barrier that UK citizens don't have to cross and so makes it harder for EU citizens to exercise their right to vote.
> Will the government crest be on the podium?
No, If the announcement is simply for the Conservative Party leadership.
Edit - Podium Alert ... Government crest - General election called !! ..
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1131834071817052161
> > >
> > > So Helen Grant MP (no me neither) is running?
> >
> > No - she supports Rabb
>
> And she can't do that without resigning? Odd!
Maybe the stench of death around May's Govt. has just become too much to take. Must be like doing autopsies, 24/7.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > Will the government crest be on the podium?
>
> No, If the announcement is simply for the Conservative Party leadership.
If I remember rightly, Cameron had it on the podium when he announced he was going. But I have a feeling that it might not be on the podium this time as it's a bit different to announcing your intention to resign as PM the morning after a national referendum.
> Lecturn with crest on it outside no 10
She's going nowhere
> > @kjh said:
> >
> > The questions are I assume:
> >
> > Was it just the odd Irish citizen who got removed by mistake, or was it on a mass scale?
> >
> > Although there are a huge number of UK citizens abroad how many actually choose to vote in the UK and how many councils actually screwed up the delivery of the ballot papers? Just one or two or hundreds?
> >
> > How many EU citizens did everything they needed to do and lost their vote?
> >
> > For those that just failed to do what was required, was the information of what was needed just too obscure and how many of them tried to vote?
>
> Yes. A judge-led enquiry? (Still missing that chaos from Miliband)
>
> I think the requirement for an additional declaration form is also being questioned as potentially contrary to EU law, as it is an additional barrier that UK citizens don't have to cross and so makes it harder for EU citizens to exercise their right to vote.
I doubt that, I would have to sign a similar form to vote here in Germany. It's designed to prevent people voting in the EU elections in more than one country