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New .@YouGov – 17th May sees the CON+LAB aggregate drop below 50% CON 24% =1Lab : 24% -1BRX : 18%=LDem : 18% +2Grn : 6% -1UKIP : 2% =CHUK : 2% =
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If we then leave in October I see the Brexit Party basically collapsing to current UKIP levels and the Tories regaining a little more again. But again I think the Lib Dems will maintain most of their gains.
I am pretty sure that most people do not and will not see TBP as a party of Westminster or Government if we Leave. If we Remain I don't know.
They currently have 75 with 5 in doubt. Labor leads in 3,Coalition in 2. Which would be enough. But one is a wafer thin lead of 0.2% with 73% counted.
Academic, of course, in terms of who is PM, but that extra seat will make governing a heck of a lot easier.
The lowest two-party share I can find in Westminster polls around the time of the 2014 EU elections was 59% (Con 27/Lab 32) and at the 2015GE it was 69% (Con 37.8/Lab 31.2). So a recovery in the two-party share was seen.
Will that hold this time? Will only the Tories benefit again?
So much depends. In 2015 UKIP had the impetus from two defections and yet still saw their GE vote halve from their polling peak at the time of the EU elections.
Incidentally, the best poll score for UKIP before the 2014 EU elections was 38%. This time the best score for the Farage publicity vehicle is 35%. Possible that they won't match the UKIP performance in 2014?
This is becoming quite sad really.
> No one has ever lost a seven shot lead going into the final round of a major championship. It could be about to happen.
I still remember that Greg Norman blow up vs Faldo at the Masters.
i.e. Seamus wont let him say what he wants.
David Hare - "The Absence of War" play.
"more sympathetic" probably means he is prepared to listen to the idea.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > No one has ever lost a seven shot lead going into the final round of a major championship. It could be about to happen.
>
> I still remember that Greg Norman blow up vs Faldo at the Masters.
The problem for Koepka is that he's been playing so well that he's not done too much scrambling. And now he's having to do it at the worst time.
Yep, Jezza is really Prime Minister material isn't he.
Rogue Boeing 737 Max planes ‘with minds of their own’ | 60 Minutes Australia
https://youtu.be/QytfYyHmxtc
Interesting electoral facts: at the Feb 1974 election 31.3 million people voted in total. Since then there have been only 3 elections at which more people have voted: 1987, 1992 and 2017. (The 2017 figure was 32.2 million).
> As the turnout in the Euros is about half of GE turnout, the 30% who voted UKIP in 2014 are pretty much the same people who were the 14% in 2015. They were just diluted by those who think other matters are more important than the European question.
That's mostly true. In terms of absolute numbers UKIP did lose about 480k votes between the EU elections in 2014 and the 2015GE, or about one-in-nine of their Euro election voters.
But I don't think it's that simple, as they were scoring 23% in Westminster opinion polls in 2014, so I don't think differential turnout is all the answer.
> O/T
>
> Interesting electoral facts: at the Feb 1974 election 31.3 million people voted in total. Since then there have been only 3 elections at which more people have voted: 1987, 1992 and 2017.
That reminds me of the stat that Major's 14m votes in 1992 has never been beaten. And on current polling, will endure for another 25 years!
> If we then leave in October I see the Brexit Party basically collapsing to current UKIP levels and the Tories regaining a little more again. But again I think the Lib Dems will maintain most of their gains.
>
> I am pretty sure that most people do not and will not see TBP as a party of Westminster or Government if we Leave. If we Remain I don't know.
>
> If we leave, the existential questions about the future relationship will still be unresolved, and the Brexit Party will be able to feed on a perception that our hands are tied by the legacy of May's negotiations. There will be no reason for the polarisation to abate.
I disagree. There are a small hard core who will never accept anything other than a complete break but they represent only a few % of the public. If we leave and are outside the institutions of the EU then most Leavers will desert Farage. If we do not leave then I have no idea what will happen.
> https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1130193364463304704
>
> Yep, Jezza is really Prime Minister material isn't he.
Being open to compromise disqualifies you does it.
Thank God for TM she is strong and stable you know.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @tlg86 said:
> > > No one has ever lost a seven shot lead going into the final round of a major championship. It could be about to happen.
> >
> > I still remember that Greg Norman blow up vs Faldo at the Masters.
>
> The problem for Koepka is that he's been playing so well that he's not done too much scrambling. And now he's having to do it at the worst time.
3 up with 3 to play unless DJ holes from 20ft.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @tlg86 said:
> > > > No one has ever lost a seven shot lead going into the final round of a major championship. It could be about to happen.
> > >
> > > I still remember that Greg Norman blow up vs Faldo at the Masters.
> >
> > The problem for Koepka is that he's been playing so well that he's not done too much scrambling. And now he's having to do it at the worst time.
>
> 3 up with 3 to play unless DJ holes from 20ft.
More bogeys than a very long train.
Do you think any of the Tory party muppets or Labour party muppets or Farage muppets will listen to what the EU has said for ages now?
No, I don’t think so either.
The No Dealers are an utterly malign force in British politics today.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/may/19/skripal-poisoning-suspects-received-mystery-phone-call-following-attack
Might have just been their local tour guide asking why they didn't show up for their meet?
Where do I start?
> https://twitter.com/ForTheRecord_DC/status/1129773652113854465
>
> Where do I start?
>
>
Shouldn't it have been called, peter kay's mum needs a bungalow tour, I mean David Cameron's I have a massive mortgage on a holiday house in Cornwall to pay for?
> https://twitter.com/ForTheRecord_DC/status/1129773652113854465
> Where do I start?
>
> The book signings should be fun.
Will they allow people standing in the queue to have milk based beverages?
As Hilary Clinton, Theresa May and the remain campaign will testify polls aren’t facts they are estimates of public support - and have been wrong big time in many recent elections. The penultimate referendum poll released by Populus on 23 June 2016 had remain ahead by 10 per cent and leave won by 4 - now that’s a fact!
It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault....
> Not that I believe for one moment that Jezza really is in favour of 2nd vote.
>
>
>
> "more sympathetic" probably means he is prepared to listen to the idea.
>
> He's getting more and more sympathetic the worse the polls get for remain.
>
> You mean the polls showing remain well in the lead and trending in remain's direction?
>
>
>
>
>
> Don't confuse him with the facts.
>
> The same ‘facts’ which had the Australian Labour Party ahead in 52 consecutive polls - except the real poll which actually involved millions of votes which saw the Coslition returned to office.
>
> As Hilary Clinton, Theresa May and the remain campaign will testify polls aren’t facts they are estimates of public support - and have been wrong big time in many recent elections. The penultimate referendum poll released by Populus on 23 June 2016 had remain ahead by 10 per cent and leave won by 4 - now that’s a fact!
Don't confuse him with the facts.
The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
>
> The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
>
> I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
>
>
I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> https://twitter.com/ForTheRecord_DC/status/1129773652113854465
>
>
>
> Chapter 1
> It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault. It's somebody else's fault....
Chapter 2
I was born into humble circumstances, attending the local school, a run-down institution, which despite its many failings and appalling ratings, did have a decent choir. It was hard making ends meet in those days as my father's chosen profession of stockbroker was at that time, before the wonders of Margaret Thatcher's economic miracle, a lowly role with little in the way of recompense. Think Bob Cratchet, without the decent jacket and the coal scuttle.
By dint of hard work, especially on essays, I found myself gazing at the dreaming spires of Oxford, a run of the mill sort of polytechnic, where I studied something called economics. This is a very good subject for anyone who aspires to high office, because it explains why ever decision you make in government is wrong. But I digress.
> > @nico67 said:
> > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> >
> > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> >
> > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> >
> >
>
> I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
With the way CUK have behaved, would the LDs want them?
Here we’re watching and waiting for the Tories finally to split. I wish they’d get on with it. It’s becoming tedious now.
After leading Cowley Polytechnic I went to work for some friends of my dad. I didn't really know what they did, but they seemed like good chaps so I let them get on. One of them - Lorman Namont or something, I wasn't paying attention - got in a bit of a kerfuffle and lost his job, but I had a great time so no probs. I mooched about a bit whilst i waited for my MP slot to open up, then got a seat with some friends of my mum in Houston. The club got the voters to stick the things in the box and i went to work in London: it was great fun with lots of time off. You'll never believe what happened next...
> I can provide no evidence for it but my gut feeling is that the Brexit Party will fall back to the sorts of levels we saw for UKIP at their height - around 12% - the Lib Dems will keep much of their gains and the Tories and Labour will regain a touch but no where near as much as they need.
>
> If we then leave in October I see the Brexit Party basically collapsing to current UKIP levels and the Tories regaining a little more again. But again I think the Lib Dems will maintain most of their gains.
>
> I am pretty sure that most people do not and will not see TBP as a party of Westminster or Government if we Leave. If we Remain I don't know.
Agreed if we Leave in October and Boris or Raab are Tory leader, agreed too that the LD rise is likely here to stay, many 2017 Remainers just 'lent' their vote to Labour without any real desire for a Corbyn premiership and are now likely to stay LD, however many Brexit Party voters can be won back by the Tories provided we do actually Brexit and leave the EU by the end of the year
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > If we then leave in October I see the Brexit Party basically collapsing to current UKIP levels and the Tories regaining a little more again. But again I think the Lib Dems will maintain most of their gains.
>
> >
>
> > I am pretty sure that most people do not and will not see TBP as a party of Westminster or Government if we Leave. If we Remain I don't know.
>
> >
>
> > If we leave, the existential questions about the future relationship will still be unresolved, and the Brexit Party will be able to feed on a perception that our hands are tied by the legacy of May's negotiations. There will be no reason for the polarisation to abate.
>
>
>
> I disagree. There are a small hard core who will never accept anything other than a complete break but they represent only a few % of the public. If we leave and are outside the institutions of the EU then most Leavers will desert Farage. If we do not leave then I have no idea what will happen.
>
> If the WA had passed, we wouldn’t be having these Euro Elections, Farage would be complaining on LBC, and very few people would care.
Spot on, it's only the lack of any sort of brexit at all that is giving him traction.
> > @dixiedean said:
>
> > > @nico67 said:
>
> > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
>
> > >
>
> > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
>
> > >
>
> > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
>
>
>
> With the way CUK have behaved, would the LDs want them?
>
> Don’t forget. There’s the Nick Boles Party (of One).
And Ian Austin Party (also of One). Probably not a good fit for CUkers.
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
>
> >
>
> > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
>
> >
>
> > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
>
> Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
>
>
>
> The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
>
>
>
> I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
>
> It’s like watching the opposite of one of those romantic dramas on TV - when you spend several series wondering whether the leads will ever get together until they finally do, to everyone’s relief.
>
> Here we’re watching and waiting for the Tories finally to split. I wish they’d get on with it. It’s becoming tedious now.
-----------------------------
They and Labour teased us months ago with the Tiggers, but neither have yet delivered on that promised split that both really need, particularly the Tories.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/ForTheRecord_DC/status/1129773652113854465
> >
> > Where do I start?
> >
> >
>
> Shouldn't it have been called, peter kay's mum needs a bungalow tour, I mean David Cameron's I have a massive mortgage on a holiday house in Cornwall to pay for?
---------------------
While I am kinder to Cameron than most, I though the gag that the title really should have been 'Or Chaos with Ed Miliband' was very good.
> https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1130228039298834433?s=21
Sure, Mays' plans are doomed - personally I don't think there was ever any intention to bring the deal back for a fourth vote, it was just positioning to show she was actually trying to Brexit, unlike the Grievers and the Brexiteers (no, unicorn Brexits do not count as trying to leave when you vote down all efforts to leave) - but the Cabinet really are actually worse than May with how they have kept her there because they do not want to take on this mess, even as they constantly undermine anything she attempts.
She's awful, and yet still has more dignity that the chumps inthe Cabinet.
i) Nothing changes (We head to transition)
ii) If we can't agree a FTA we are in a de facto customs union (The backstop)
That's it. Even intrastat returns continue.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1130228039298834433?s=21
>
> Sure, Mays' plans are doomed - personally I don't think there was ever any intention to bring the deal back for a fourth vote, it was just positioning to show she was actually trying to Brexit, unlike the Grievers and the Brexiteers (no, unicorn Brexits do not count as trying to leave when you vote down all efforts to leave) - but the Cabinet really are actually worse than May with how they have kept her there because they do not want to take on this mess, even as they constantly undermine anything she attempts.
>
> She's awful, and yet still has more dignity that the chumps inthe Cabinet.
I think it can still pass, if the Brexit Party win the European elections and the Peterborough by election and Remain and Leave parties are roughly tied in the European votecount then it is clear there is no momentum to reverse Brexit and MPs will be faced with a straight Revoke or No Deal in October choice (given Macron likely vetoes further extension) and risk losing their seats to the Brexit Party if they choose the former.
In that case I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats will cave and the WA could scrape over the line for a majority
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> >
> > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
>
> If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > >
> > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > >
> > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
>
> With the way CUK have behaved, would the LDs want them?
Not all of them en masse, sure. But they might find themselves in a position to cherry pick. Heidi Allen and Wollaston would be pretty good shots to retain their seats under a LD flag. They look a good fit.
I cannot see that. Lab mps who did not cave before surely will not now, Brexit party or no.
Night all .
> I > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > >
> > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > >
> > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> >
> > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
>
> Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
>
> The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
>
>
They can if they get back voters lost to the Brexit Party, they have no hope of beating Corbyn without regaining those voters
> I > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > >
> > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > >
> > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> >
> > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
>
> Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
>
> The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
>
>
The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> >
> > > > @nico67 said:
> >
> > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> >
> >
> >
> > With the way CUK have behaved, would the LDs want them?
> >
> > Don’t forget. There’s the Nick Boles Party (of One).
>
> And Ian Austin Party (also of One). Probably not a good fit for CUkers.
John Woodcock. Table for one, sir?!
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1130228039298834433
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Sure, Mays' plans are doomed - personally I don't think there was ever any intention to bring the deal back for a fourth vote, it was just positioning to show she was actually trying to Brexit, unlike the Grievers and the Brexiteers (no, unicorn Brexits do not count as trying to leave when you vote down all efforts to leave) - but the Cabinet really are actually worse than May with how they have kept her there because they do not want to take on this mess, even as they constantly undermine anything she attempts.
>
> >
>
> > She's awful, and yet still has more dignity that the chumps inthe Cabinet.
>
>
>
> I think it can still pass, if the Brexit Party win the European elections and the Peterborough by election and Remain and Leave parties are roughly tied in the European votecount then it is clear there is no momentum to reverse Brexit and MPs will be faced with a straight Revoke or No Deal in October choice (given Macron likely vetoes further extension) and risk losing their seats to the Brexit Party if they choose the former.
>
>
>
> In that case I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats will cave and the WA could scrape over the line for a majority
>
> If it does then regardless of the worthiness of the WA or whether the Gov collapses thereafter, or how self inflicted much of the trouble has been, it would be one of the most incredible political accomplishments of all time.
>
> I cannot see that. Lab mps who did not cave before surely will not now, Brexit party or no.
>
> Night all .
Then those Labour MPs from Leave seats will be faced with having to vote to revoke or for No Deal in October given Macron likely vetoes further extension, vote for the former and they risk losing their seats to the Brexit Party or Tories as their constituents react with fury at the referendum vote being ignored, vote for the latter and they risk fury from Remainers within their own party and a threat to the Union and their constituents' jobs.
I could see Nandy edging towards justifying a Deal vote on Peston last week along those lines, Flint has already made the move as the only choice against two extremes as has Snell, others will follow and May only needs 40 or so Labour MPs added on to those who voted for the WA last time for it to pass
> > @nico67 said:
> > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > >
> > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > >
> > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > >
> > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> >
> > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> >
> > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> >
> >
>
> The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
Yes of course I meant to say working majority with the DUP. The membership might not be enamoured but the only Tory MP who probably can keep the party together is probably Gove . He at least seems interested in honouring the Vote Leave pledge to leave with a deal . The pro EU and more moderate Tories are unlikely to cause as much trouble , there certainly would be more good will in the EU towards him , even though he was a big voice he’s not despised like Bozo.
He’s also shown quite a lot of loyalty to May and that for at least half the party will help him .
> > @nico67 said:
> > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > >
> > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > >
> > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > >
> > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> >
> > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> >
> > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> >
> >
>
> The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
They key now is the FTPA and money. No GE can be forced until 2022. Allegedly Tory donors have closed their chequebooks. The Tory party cannot fight a GE without money. They have 2 years to get their act together and get the money back in. Farage is getting that money. They have no choice but to go to No Deal.
> I > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > > >
> > > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > > >
> > > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> > >
> > > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> > >
> > > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
>
> Yes of course I meant to say working majority with the DUP. The membership might not be enamoured but the only Tory MP who probably can keep the party together is probably Gove . He at least seems interested in honouring the Vote Leave pledge to leave with a deal . The pro EU and more moderate Tories are unlikely to cause as much trouble , there certainly would be more good will in the EU towards him , even though he was a big voice he’s not despised like Bozo.
>
> He’s also shown quite a lot of loyalty to May and that for at least half the party will help him .
Apologies. I composed a long response then realised I was rambling. So edited it back. Didn't mean to imply you were too stupid to know that they didn't have a majority.
Here is ScoMo celebrating with some Rugby League. At Cronulla Sharks. They lost, unlike him.
> I could see Nandy edging towards justifying a Deal vote on Peston last week along those lines, Flint has already made the move as the only choice against two extremes as has Snell, others will follow and May only needs 40 or so Labour MPs added on to those who voted for the WA last time for it to pass
>
> The WAB needs to get through both Houses so it's not as simple as getting Labour MPs to buckle.
The Commons can overrule the Lords as has been the case for a century and if that was case I expect the EU would grant the time for that to happen and the Parliament Act to be enacted. (If the mob had not descended on Parliament Square and erected a guillotine for their Lordships first for once again blocking Brexit).
Alternatively May could just pack the Lords with pro WA peers in the next honours list
> I > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > > >
> > > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > > >
> > > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> > >
> > > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> > >
> > > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
>
> Yes of course I meant to say working majority with the DUP. The membership might not be enamoured but the only Tory MP who probably can keep the party together is probably Gove . He at least seems interested in honouring the Vote Leave pledge to leave with a deal . The pro EU and more moderate Tories are unlikely to cause as much trouble , there certainly would be more good will in the EU towards him , even though he was a big voice he’s not despised like Bozo.
>
> He’s also shown quite a lot of loyalty to May and that for at least half the party will help him .
Irrelevant if the Deal still cannot get through the Commons and as the polling shows Gove is about as electable as the ghost of Jimmy Saville
> > @nico67 said:
> > I > @dixiedean said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > > > >
> > > > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> > > >
> > > > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> > > >
> > > > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
> >
> > Yes of course I meant to say working majority with the DUP. The membership might not be enamoured but the only Tory MP who probably can keep the party together is probably Gove . He at least seems interested in honouring the Vote Leave pledge to leave with a deal . The pro EU and more moderate Tories are unlikely to cause as much trouble , there certainly would be more good will in the EU towards him , even though he was a big voice he’s not despised like Bozo.
> >
> > He’s also shown quite a lot of loyalty to May and that for at least half the party will help him .
>
> Apologies. I composed a long response then realised I was rambling. So edited it back. Didn't mean to imply you were too stupid to know that they didn't have a majority.
No worries I didn’t take it like that at all. 🙂
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I > @dixiedean said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> > > > >
> > > > > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> > > > >
> > > > > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
> > >
> > > Yes of course I meant to say working majority with the DUP. The membership might not be enamoured but the only Tory MP who probably can keep the party together is probably Gove . He at least seems interested in honouring the Vote Leave pledge to leave with a deal . The pro EU and more moderate Tories are unlikely to cause as much trouble , there certainly would be more good will in the EU towards him , even though he was a big voice he’s not despised like Bozo.
> > >
> > > He’s also shown quite a lot of loyalty to May and that for at least half the party will help him .
> >
> > Apologies. I composed a long response then realised I was rambling. So edited it back. Didn't mean to imply you were too stupid to know that they didn't have a majority.
>
> No worries I didn’t take it like that at all. 🙂
Oh good.
> They key now is the FTPA and money. No GE can be forced until 2022. Allegedly Tory donors have closed their chequebooks. The Tory party cannot fight a GE without money. They have 2 years to get their act together and get the money back in. Farage is getting that money. They have no choice but to go to No Deal.
I think there's a difference between Tory donors closing their wallets, and Farage rolling in cash.
I can see a couple of the uber-Brexiteers donating to Farage, but most Brexity donors want an orderly transition out the EU.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > I > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > >
> > > > > > It’s going to be a role reversal when a new PM comes in .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > The ERG will be fawning all over the no dealer whilst a group of anti no deal Tories start causing trouble .
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I think we’re likely to see some defections to the Lib Dems . I don’t see any more moving to Change UK.
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect there may be some defections from CUK to LDs...
> > > > >
> > > > > Can't see Greening staying if Boris is PM.
> > > >
> > > > If Greening, Grieve and Heseltine defect to the LDs or CUK I doubt too many Tories will be losing much sleep, regaining the voters lost to the Brexit Party is far more important
> > >
> > > Grieve I can’t see going to the Lib Dems . He’s likely to resign the whip and sit as an independent . Greening I agree , a very good bet to go to the Lib Dems. Heseltine being in the HOL isn’t such an issue although he could act as a focal point for other pro EU Tories .
> > >
> > > The Tories have a wafer thin majority now . They can’t afford too many more defections or resignations .
> > >
> > >
> >
> > The Tories don't have a majority. Haven't since 2017. That has been part of the problem.
>
> They key now is the FTPA and money. No GE can be forced until 2022. Allegedly Tory donors have closed their chequebooks. The Tory party cannot fight a GE without money. They have 2 years to get their act together and get the money back in. Farage is getting that money. They have no choice but to go to No Deal.
But there's the rub. If the leadership pivots to No Deal, it'll lose the support of Grieve, Rudd etc. and Corbyn will win a vote of No Confidence. 2019 election.
This drama has some way to run yet. Let's just hope it doesn't have a Game of Thrones style ending.
> But there's the rub. If the leadership pivots to No Deal, it'll lose the support of Grieve, Rudd etc. and Corbyn will win a vote of No Confidence. 2019 election.
>
> This drama has some way to run yet. Let's just hope it doesn't have a Game of Thrones style ending.
If there was an easy way out, the Conservative Parliamentary Party would take it.
The reality is that every way is fraught with dangers.
I am coming round to the view that the best outcome for both the Conservative Party and the country would be for Boris Johnson to take over as Prime Minister, to go to Brussels, and return declaring that the Withdrawal Agreement was dead, and the EU had cravenly accepted his terms, and a new Exit Agreement had been agreed.
We would all cheer as Boris declared victory, the ERG would fall into line, and the EA would pass.
A few small voices in the wilderness would point out that the only change was the substituting of the word "exit" for "withdrawal" throughout the document. But they would be ignored as naysayers.
> Not that I believe for one moment that Jezza really is in favour of 2nd vote.
>
>
>
> "more sympathetic" probably means he is prepared to listen to the idea.
>
> He's getting more and more sympathetic the worse the polls get for remain.
>
> You mean the polls showing remain well in the lead and trending in remain's direction?
>
>
>
>
>
> Don't confuse him with the facts.
>
> The same ‘facts’ which had the Australian Labour Party ahead in 52 consecutive polls - except the real poll which actually involved millions of votes which saw the Coslition returned to office.
>
> As Hilary Clinton, Theresa May and the remain campaign will testify polls aren’t facts they are estimates of public support - and have been wrong big time in many recent elections. The penultimate referendum poll released by Populus on 23 June 2016 had remain ahead by 10 per cent and leave won by 4 - now that’s a fact!
And the other polls before the referendum?
There is absolutely no reason to doubt the long term trend, even if you can rightly doubt the exact percentages. Leave has been getting steadily less popular for a very long time.
It baffles me why Leavers spend so little time wondering why the public has failed to form a consensus around its mandate and indeed seems to have turned against it. But I suppose that would require them to ask themselves searching questions of themselves about where they had failed to persuade or make wise compromises.
Yet surely the whole point of ejecting May is that there will follow a successor who can do better? The truth — the uncomfortable truth that the May-Must-Go-Now brigade will not face — is that whoever the next leader may be, however sophisticated their diplomatic or parliamentary skills, the fundamental problems with delivering Brexit will remain.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/a-vote-for-johnson-is-a-vote-to-break-up-the-uk-0bd0ts9pr
On the contrary, a relatively uneventful and pretty boring conclusion would be a great relief.
> > @Dadge said:
> > But there's the rub. If the leadership pivots to No Deal, it'll lose the support of Grieve, Rudd etc. and Corbyn will win a vote of No Confidence. 2019 election.
> >
> > This drama has some way to run yet. Let's just hope it doesn't have a Game of Thrones style ending.
>
> If there was an easy way out, the Conservative Parliamentary Party would take it.
>
> The reality is that every way is fraught with dangers.
>
> I am coming round to the view that the best outcome for both the Conservative Party and the country would be for Boris Johnson to take over as Prime Minister, to go to Brussels, and return declaring that the Withdrawal Agreement was dead, and the EU had cravenly accepted his terms, and a new Exit Agreement had been agreed.
>
> We would all cheer as Boris declared victory, the ERG would fall into line, and the EA would pass.
>
> A few small voices in the wilderness would point out that the only change was the substituting of the word "exit" for "withdrawal" throughout the document. But they would be ignored as naysayers.
Are you also amending your previous prediction that leaving the EU would change the UK into something like 'Singapore on speed' ?
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @Dadge said:
> > > But there's the rub. If the leadership pivots to No Deal, it'll lose the support of Grieve, Rudd etc. and Corbyn will win a vote of No Confidence. 2019 election.
> > >
> > > This drama has some way to run yet. Let's just hope it doesn't have a Game of Thrones style ending.
> >
> > If there was an easy way out, the Conservative Parliamentary Party would take it.
> >
> > The reality is that every way is fraught with dangers.
> >
> > I am coming round to the view that the best outcome for both the Conservative Party and the country would be for Boris Johnson to take over as Prime Minister, to go to Brussels, and return declaring that the Withdrawal Agreement was dead, and the EU had cravenly accepted his terms, and a new Exit Agreement had been agreed.
> >
> > We would all cheer as Boris declared victory, the ERG would fall into line, and the EA would pass.
> >
> > A few small voices in the wilderness would point out that the only change was the substituting of the word "exit" for "withdrawal" throughout the document. But they would be ignored as naysayers.
>
> Are you also amending your previous prediction that leaving the EU would change the UK into something like 'Singapore on speed' ?
I never made such a claim.
In fact, I poopooed the idea that the UK economy (utterly dependent on consumption) and the Singaporean one (high levels of household saving) could even be meaningfully compared.
My argument for leaving the EU was that it would improve governance by bringing decisions back closer the people and to their elected representatives.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @Dadge said:
> > > > But there's the rub. If the leadership pivots to No Deal, it'll lose the support of Grieve, Rudd etc. and Corbyn will win a vote of No Confidence. 2019 election.
> > > >
> > > > This drama has some way to run yet. Let's just hope it doesn't have a Game of Thrones style ending.
> > >
> > > If there was an easy way out, the Conservative Parliamentary Party would take it.
> > >
> > > The reality is that every way is fraught with dangers.
> > >
> > > I am coming round to the view that the best outcome for both the Conservative Party and the country would be for Boris Johnson to take over as Prime Minister, to go to Brussels, and return declaring that the Withdrawal Agreement was dead, and the EU had cravenly accepted his terms, and a new Exit Agreement had been agreed.
> > >
> > > We would all cheer as Boris declared victory, the ERG would fall into line, and the EA would pass.
> > >
> > > A few small voices in the wilderness would point out that the only change was the substituting of the word "exit" for "withdrawal" throughout the document. But they would be ignored as naysayers.
> >
> > Are you also amending your previous prediction that leaving the EU would change the UK into something like 'Singapore on speed' ?
>
> I never made such a claim.
>
> In fact, I poopooed the idea that the UK economy (utterly dependent on consumption) and the Singaporean one (high levels of household saving) could even be meaningfully compared.
>
> My argument for leaving the EU was that it would improve governance by bringing decisions back closer the people and to their elected representatives.
Must be my age, Robert. Memory playing tricks on me.
It was quite some ago, before the referendum. At the time you were one of the few prepared to make specific predictions as to how a vote to leave would shake out. I'm sure I can recall the phrase 'Singapore on speed' which would last for a bit, followed by a period of 'turbulence', followed by a better long-term future.
What I do not recall is any kind of time frame. So, I'm not sure if we've had the Singapore spring yet, or it is to come.
But maybe I dreamt it all.
Wasn't so very long it seemed odd the two main parties had a combined figure of 80%+.
For example, the first half of the Second Punic War involved a great individual (Hannibal) leading the armed forces of a poor system of government and winning repeatedly. But the strength of the sound constitution of Rome allowed it to weather a period of weakness and ultimately win.
The competence or failure of individuals matters far less for national success than the strength or weakness of their constitutional arrangements.
> Good morning, everyone.
>
> Wasn't so very long it seemed odd the two main parties had a combined figure of 80%+.
In 2017 Brexit served to concentrate support into the Tories who were (questionably) seen as the strong Brexit party and Labour who were (questionably) seen as the Remain party. Now both those crowns have been lost and voters have worked out who the hard Brexit and hard Remain parties really are.