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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Eu

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Euros spread-betting markets

So much is going on in UK politics at the moment that it is hard to recall that just a month ago the new Party formed by breakaway CON and LAB MPs, Change UK, was talking about it taking over the Lib Dems. From reports at the time it considered itself to be the powerful force and were treating Cable’s party as almost supplicants in any relationship.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Cons ended up with 218? Crikey, May was significantly more crap than I remembered!

    I think it was 318....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > Cons ended up with 218? Crikey, May was significantly more crap than I remembered!
    >
    > I think it was 318....

    You spotted tonight's deliberate mistake. A gold star sir
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.

    Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.

    It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    If CUK have any sense they will emulate their SDP predecessors and try and form a pact with the Liberals, on hands and knees if necessary
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,723
    > @HYUFD said:
    > If CUK have any sense they will emulate their SDP predecessors and try and form a pact with the Liberals, on hands and knees if necessary

    If they score 0 MEPs in absolutely perfect, never to be repeated, circumstances, zero councillors, with no candidate in Peterborough, that would have to be game over as a stand alone Party surely?
    They may need to be lower than hands and knees.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    4-0 to City! Looks like they've won this...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648

    > @MarqueeMark said:

    > Cons ended up with 218? Crikey, May was significantly more crap than I remembered!

    >

    > I think it was 318....



    You spotted tonight's deliberate mistake. A gold star sir

    318 includes Bercow. It was 317.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > If CUK have any sense they will emulate their SDP predecessors and try and form a pact with the Liberals, on hands and knees if necessary
    >
    > If they score 0 MEPs in absolutely perfect, never to be repeated, circumstances, zero councillors, with no candidate in Peterborough, that would have to be game over as a stand alone Party surely?
    > They may need to be lower than hands and knees.

    It may involve Chuka Umunna and Heidi Allen licking the feet of Vince Cable and Heidi Allen yes and the LDs eventually saying 'Well I suppose you got a few votes' and then in a play on the famous Owen Steel Spitting Image sketch saying 'From us we will take the words Liberal Democrat, from you we will take the word Party' and then seal the deal

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-26369787/spitting-image-makers-on-david-steel-satirical-puppet
  • The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Politics is always full of surprises. But it is hard to see the party with no name getting off the ground now.

    I think the best they can hope for is as a special interest group in the Lib Dems. If I were the Lib Dem leadership I'd basically tell them they can only join as individual members.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,492
    Looks as though Austria will be heading for an election in the autumn as the coalition between the Freedom Party and the People's Party is crumbling with the resignation of the leader of the former after a particularly silly video emerged with the bumbling populist seemingly willing to trade influence with pro-Russian media.

    Can you imagine a populist leader running off to other countries offering them this and that in favour for some favourable media coverage - apparently, we can.

    Irish poll not showing a lot of change from 2016 - Greens up a little but FF and FG not far removed from their GE numbers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,751
    > @HYUFD said:
    > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.
    >
    > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.
    >
    > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide
    >
    > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals

    As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)

    The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.

    For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A snap election might be called in Austria after the vice chancellor member of the Freedom Party turned out to be happy to accept apparent Russian money as political donations to throw some contracts their way .

    What a surprise a far right politician happy to be bought and paid for by Russia.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    5-0!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.
    > >
    > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.
    > >
    > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide
    > >
    > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals
    >
    > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)
    >
    > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.
    >
    > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.


    Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It's better to have tried and failed then never to have tried at all.

    It was always going to be hard to establish a new party, but aside from making the attempt in the first place out is hard to think of a single thing that they have managed to do right or well.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    > @HYUFD said:
    > If CUK have any sense they will emulate their SDP predecessors and try and form a pact with the Liberals, on hands and knees if necessary

    If it was up to me, I would probably take Sarah Wollaston. The rest, not sure they'd exactly fit in.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?

    They went too early. The plan was to go after brexit had been sorted. Also when they setup, they did not know there would be EU elections and a bye-election. They could have missed the locals but not the other two. So when they setup they thought they had time to sort out the party bit (I believe what they wanted was a change in leaderships so they could rejoin their original parties).

    Couple this was serious infighting and you have the shambles we see now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    6-0 to City! FA Cup Final record.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited May 2019
    HYUFD said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.

    > >

    > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.

    > >

    > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide

    > >

    > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals

    >

    > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)

    >

    > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.

    >

    > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.





    Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)

    From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    edited May 2019
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.

    > >

    > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.

    > >

    > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide

    > >

    > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals

    >

    > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)

    >

    > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.

    >

    > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.





    Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)

    From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.
    That's not an election!
    [produces 2019 Euros]
    That's an election!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    What sort of ladder do some in Change UK need to climb down and join up with the Lib Dems .

    They will surely suffer a lot of derision . The Tory 3 would seem a more natural fit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Fox US Democratic Primary

    Biden 35%
    Sanders 17%
    Warren 9%
    Buttigieg 6%
    Harris 5%
    O'Rourke 4%


    General election


    Biden 49% Trump 38%
    Sanders 46% Trump 41%
    Warren 43% Trump 41%
    Harris 41% Trump 41%
    Buttigieg 40% Trump 41%


    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-booms-bernie-fades
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    > @nico67 said:
    > What sort of ladder do some in Change UK need to climb down and join up with the Lib Dems .
    >
    > They will surely suffer a lot of derision . The Tory 3 would seem a more natural fit.

    Be honest, that's because you're struggling to remember who all the ex-Labour ones are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    > @nico67 said:
    > What sort of ladder do some in Change UK need to climb down and join up with the Lib Dems .
    >
    > They will surely suffer a lot of derision . The Tory 3 would seem a more natural fit.

    Man City = The Brexit Party

    Watford = ChUKas......
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Biden is gaff prone but can win the swing states the Dems need .

    It’s pointless having a Dem candidate that can run up big margins in states which the Dems are shoe ins for .
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2019
    > @matt said:
    > From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.


    Yep - although it's obviously a vast island, few live in the country. Their overall % who live in cities is actually a little higher than ours, surprisingly (86% vs 83%).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    > @matt said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals
    >
    > >
    >
    > > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)
    >
    > From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.

    In New South Wales or Victoria yes it is mainly urban or suburban, in Queensland though outside of Brisbane it really is Crocodile Dundee Territory and vast, sparsely populated farms and small towns in most of the huge state and it was Queensland that was decisive in this election. Personally I have not been to Australia but my sister has, including all 3 of those states
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    I love this from Matt Chorley in the Times

    <i> I’m beginning to wonder if the brains behind Change UK are in fact renegade Lib Dems, going undercover to launch the most laughably bad political party to try to make themselves look better. Never mind winning an election, at this rate they’ll struggle to be a pub quiz question in 2020.

    The problem with Change UK is that the mish-mash of has-beens and never-weres came together from the Labour and Conservative parties with little more in common than a love of being on television and a hatred of their old leaders.</i>

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/at-this-rate-change-uk-will-struggle-to-be-a-pub-quiz-question-mgqcm8b3d
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,492
    As an LD, I've never had an issue with CUK or its leaders. Their strategy wasn't as far removed as that of the SDP in its early days. They thought the LDs were there to be absorbed, taken over or supplanted but they were wrong.

    I suppose they could seek to join the LDs and nominate one of their own for the LD leadership - er, no. I'd welcome any and all the CUK MPs and their supporters into the Party. It would be interesting to see if they were more inclined to support Jo Swinson or Ed Davey.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,751
    > @matt said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals
    >
    > >
    >
    > > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)
    >
    > From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.

    I've been to suburban Australia, and around Victoria, NSW and South Australia. However, I did live with an Australian for four years. But aside from that, I admit IANAE on Australia.

    I will say one thing, though: go just a few miles out of suburban Melbourne to the Dandenong Range (for PB's train fans, home of the Puffing Billy) and you get a very different attitude to life. And in Aussie terms, that's like going down to the corner ship for a pint of milk.

    Or, on the east coast, Mallacoota. A superb and massively friendly place, but one that is rather remote and somewhat insular. The 'win your height in VB beer' competition held one night was not for cans, but slabs ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 2019
    > @nico67 said:
    > Biden is gaff prone but can win the swing states the Dems need .
    >
    > It’s pointless having a Dem candidate that can run up big margins in states which the Dems are shoe ins for .

    Yes, the Dems need to win the rustbelt swing states not just rack up huge margins in California and New York as Hillary did. As the Fox poll shows only Biden really has a clear lead over Trump of the Democratic field.


    It is the same problem the liberal left had in Australia today and had in the 2016 referendum here, it is no use leading by huge margins in the big cities if they lose swing areas, particularly small towns
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 617
    CUKRIP
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,950
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?

    They're the wrong type of intelligent and educated, in that they don't understand how to run a campaign, still less a party machine. Most of them were in fairly safe seats for their former parties and those that weren't (i.e. Soubry) clearly didn't learn much about electioneering.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,287
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?

    Like most MPs they don’t actually do he hard work themselves. Apart from reading and being on TV. Building a political party from nothing takes a lot. It looks like experience helps as Farage has done it better second time around
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,170
    edited May 2019
    Are we expecting any polls for the EU election tonight?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715
    edited May 2019
    > @Essexit said:
    > They're the wrong type of intelligent and educated, in that they don't understand how to run a campaign, still less a party machine. Most of them were in fairly safe seats for their former parties and those that weren't (i.e. Soubry) clearly didn't learn much about electioneering.

    ---

    That is a bit unfair on Soubry. Broxtowe is partly a University seat, and Anna did well to hold it in 2017 for the Tories.

    However, Anna seems to have become wholly deranged by Brexit (as has happened to people on both sides).

    Wollaston is probably the most interesting of the CHUKs, but she would probably be happiest as an Independent, Richard Taylor-type MP.

    Unfortunately, if she runs as an Independent, why should the LibDems give her a free run?

    They all look doomed, now.
  • DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @matt said:
    > > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > >
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > >
    > > > > Looking at the Australian election totals it seems Labor won most seats in New South Wales, Victoria, the Northern Territory, the ACT, South Australia and were tied with the Coalition in Tasmania.
    > >
    > > > >
    > >
    > > > > Morrison won the election as the Coalition won 11 seats to 5 for Labor in Western Australia and an astonishing 23 seats to just 5 for Labor in Queensland.
    > >
    > > > >
    > >
    > > > > It seems Australia really is a divided nation now and with its 2 largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne in New South Wales and Victoria respectively it follows much of the rest of the developed world in a left/liberal urban big city v conservative rural and small town divide
    > >
    > > > >
    > >
    > > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > As a certain contributor pointed out on here years ago. ;)
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The Australia that 'we' know from our TVs- the Australia of Neighbours and Home and Away, of urban and suburban Sydney, Melbourne and Perth - is a world apart from the experiences of many Australians.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > For instance and AIUI, in that easy-going and laid-back culture, there are far more lawyers per capita than the UK, and about the same as there are in the US.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Indeed, much of Australia we forget is more Crocodile Dundee than Neighbours (though yes one of the main characters in Neighbours is a lawyer)
    > >
    > > From memory, most of the Australian population live in suburbia - have you been to Melbourne or Sydney or Bendigo or Newcastle? Even Darwin is suburbia. The Crocodile Dundee stuff is aimed at tourists.
    >
    > I've been to suburban Australia, and around Victoria, NSW and South Australia. However, I did live with an Australian for four years. But aside from that, I admit IANAE on Australia.
    >
    > I will say one thing, though: go just a few miles out of suburban Melbourne to the Dandenong Range (for PB's train fans, home of the Puffing Billy) and you get a very different attitude to life. And in Aussie terms, that's like going down to the corner ship for a pint of milk.
    >
    > Or, on the east coast, Mallacoota. A superb and massively friendly place, but one that is rather remote and somewhat insular. The 'win your height in VB beer' competition held one night was not for cans, but slabs ...

    When it comes to town planning, best not build big cities. The buggers are always loony left!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    CHUK IT IN TIME ....

    Too soon ?!? .. :smiley:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,376
    Went round my ward to deliver thank-you leaflets to everyone today and invite them to join my email list - some pleasant reactions to a politician NOT asking them about voting. I didn't think that pestering them about the Euros would be productive - just showing that voting Labour had produced a councillor who stayed in touch seemed as good a tactic as any. My impression nationally FWIW is that Labour's vote has stopped falling and Brexit's has stopped rising, but the latter are clearly ahead.
  • DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Essexit said:
    > > They're the wrong type of intelligent and educated, in that they don't understand how to run a campaign, still less a party machine. Most of them were in fairly safe seats for their former parties and those that weren't (i.e. Soubry) clearly didn't learn much about electioneering.
    >
    > ---
    >
    > That is a bit unfair on Soubry. Broxtowe is partly a University seat, and Anna did well to hold it in 2017 for the Tories.
    >
    > However, Anna seems to have become wholly deranged by Brexit (as has happened to people on both sides).
    >
    > Wollaston is probably the most interesting of the CHUKs, but she would probably be happiest as an Independent, Richard Taylor-type MP.
    >
    > Unfortunately, if she runs as an Independent, why should the LibDems give her a free run?
    >
    > They all look doomed, now.

    as expected.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    BBC have 12 graphs of Australia. One on them is voters per territory.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48185276
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @DoubleD said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @Essexit said:
    > > > They're the wrong type of intelligent and educated, in that they don't understand how to run a campaign, still less a party machine. Most of them were in fairly safe seats for their former parties and those that weren't (i.e. Soubry) clearly didn't learn much about electioneering.
    > >
    > > ---
    > >
    > > That is a bit unfair on Soubry. Broxtowe is partly a University seat, and Anna did well to hold it in 2017 for the Tories.
    > >
    > > However, Anna seems to have become wholly deranged by Brexit (as has happened to people on both sides).
    > >
    > > Wollaston is probably the most interesting of the CHUKs, but she would probably be happiest as an Independent, Richard Taylor-type MP.
    > >
    > > Unfortunately, if she runs as an Independent, why should the LibDems give her a free run?
    > >
    > > They all look doomed, now.
    >
    > as expected.

    Heidi will hold at a canter imo, the rest, we will see but it depends when the election comes. If they have 2 years to establish then we are in different times. And if there is a second referendum it will boost them
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    > @stodge said:
    > As an LD, I've never had an issue with CUK or its leaders. Their strategy wasn't as far removed as that of the SDP in its early days. They thought the LDs were there to be absorbed, taken over or supplanted but they were wrong.
    >
    > I suppose they could seek to join the LDs and nominate one of their own for the LD leadership - er, no. I'd welcome any and all the CUK MPs and their supporters into the Party. It would be interesting to see if they were more inclined to support Jo Swinson or Ed Davey.

    I'd welcome any of them who can demonstrate that they have broadly liberal values... I'm far from convinced that that covers all 11 of them though. Heidi Allen I'd welcome... Angela Smith not so much.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    I'm planning on going to the CUK rally in Cambridge tomorrow and by the looks of the polls it won't be a busy event.

    It's more out of curiosity than anything - I admire the fact they've pretty much thrown their political careers away to take a stand, but I still don't have a clue what their policy platform might be, other than inventing a time machine to go back to 2002.

    If they'd been less arrogant at the start they might have stood a chance of coming to an arrangement with the LDs. However, it's easy to say that with hindsight when at the time the LDs looked like they were going nowhere.

    Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,152
    > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?
    >
    > Like most MPs they don’t actually do he hard work themselves. Apart from reading and being on TV. Building a political party from nothing takes a lot. It looks like experience helps as Farage has done it better second time around

    Farage's party is just him, some ex-UKIP plus 'celebrity' candidates and a website. The website let's anybody register including apparently several Mickie Mouses and Vlandimir Putins. It doesn't have any members yet as far as I can see.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 588
    The Australian result does seem to vindicate Mike's long standing belief that leadership ratings are more accurate than party share in opinion polls.
  • DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference

    They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,930

    The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?

    1) People who are expert at subject X frequently think they are expert at subject Y. I occasionally get people from [redacted profession] complain that they were good at maths and stats at school, and perhaps they were, but they aren't good now.
    2) People underestimate the importance of practice and personal experience. Having a theoretical knowledge is not enough
    3) People underestimate the importance of attracting and keeping funding and donors.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,063
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > Went round my ward to deliver thank-you leaflets to everyone today and invite them to join my email list - some pleasant reactions to a politician NOT asking them about voting. I didn't think that pestering them about the Euros would be productive - just showing that voting Labour had produced a councillor who stayed in touch seemed as good a tactic as any. My impression nationally FWIW is that Labour's vote has stopped falling and Brexit's has stopped rising, but the latter are clearly ahead.

    So, are you about to become Leader of Waverley Borough Council as the compromise candidate of a four party coalition?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,013
    > @jayfdee said:
    > CUKRIP

    Certainly seems that way, One has to wonder though that the middle of British Politics can be so barren. I like the LDs in many ways, but they seem devoid of leadership. Their upcoming leadership contest essentially has only one candidate, and that her ascendency was arguably why the current leader, who's a bit crap too, has messed about with his departure fearing her as a poor replacement.

    Of course the middle ground is somewhat falsely made to look big in that all the Remainers have gathered there. Also quite unattractive because there are no middle ground leavers apparent.

    I think its actually a rather unnatural situation for the LDs in that they are supporting something (Remain) which they're not confident that they should support. They want it, but they're doubtful that they can legitimately fight for it.

    Some sort of Brexit might have the LDs repositioning into a party which is pro-EU, but not full on rejoin. Chukka & co will presumably be a rejoin at any price party.

    If Brexit went seriously wrong (which it won't unless it gets watered down to nothing by Corbyn) then being apparently right all along might just give CHUK some air in their sails.

    The other potential lifeline is a Tory fragmentation. Farage and his Brexit party are the real deal. The longer we don't leave the more momentum he gets.

    Personally I think that the Tories (under a new leader) will have to adopt an almost crash-out Brexit and then a programme (hate the way spell-checker says this word is wrong) of crashing back in to the bits that have been lost in the mess. Boris and Raab probably have the stomach for something like this, but I'm not sure they have the support for it. I can't imagine the path envisaged by the likes of Rory - will be interesting to see.

    (Apologies for the rambling nature of the above - dual authorship Me and a bottle of Fleurie)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    GIN1138 said:

    Are we expecting any polls for the EU election tonight?

    No idea about ones over the weekend, but apparently the final Welsh poll will be released on Monday.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,152
    > @stodge said:
    > As an LD, I've never had an issue with CUK or its leaders. Their strategy wasn't as far removed as that of the SDP in its early days. They thought the LDs were there to be absorbed, taken over or supplanted but they were wrong.
    >
    > I suppose they could seek to join the LDs and nominate one of their own for the LD leadership - er, no. I'd welcome any and all the CUK MPs and their supporters into the Party. It would be interesting to see if they were more inclined to support Jo Swinson or Ed Davey.

    That party would do better for both participants.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    In the absence of a Eurovision thread...

    I reckon that Norway and Denmark are worth an e/w, which runs to four places in some bookies and they are decent odds.

    San Marino too.

    We are in the race with the Germans for the wooden spoon. Some interesting special bets on Skybet too.

    Astute punters will avoid putting too much on my tips, particularly with the new voting system. Pour yourself a glass of something and enjoy the spectacle of what is great about Europe. Oh, and Iceland? Wow. just wow!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715
    > @Mauve said:
    >
    > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.

    You must give us a full report tomorrow.

    Where in Cambridge is it?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited May 2019
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > Are we expecting any polls for the EU election tonight?

    I would think so. Opinium I thought would be out soon if they’re doing weekly polling . I’m sure the DT will also like a nice splash on the state of the Tories . But will it be a Boris bounce or the BP heaping further misery onto May.

    The last few days events might shuffle things up. Starmer has gone rogue and is obviously trying to help the Labour vote with his second EU ref comments , the talks collapsing might help there aswell .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    edited May 2019
    The lead is wrong in that CUK does have an MEP seeking re-election; Ashworth in the South East.

    Otherwise it is on the money. The CUK MPs seem to have expected that the fact they are existing MPs founding a new party would in itself be sufficient to give their venture forward momentum without having to take any difficult decisions about platform, policy, name or organisation. As such it’s an example of hubris and complacency just as striking as that they claimed to be walking away from. Being MPs doesn’t give them an automatic entitlement to a following, and they certainly haven’t done much to earn one.

    On those odds, I’d sell UKIP, Brexit, and possibly Labour. There aren’t however any obvious buys.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?
    >
    > Like most MPs they don’t actually do he hard work themselves. Apart from reading and being on TV. Building a political party from nothing takes a lot. It looks like experience helps as Farage has done it better second time around

    The self-immolation of Umunna has elements of both hubris and tragedy. He undoubtedly has talents, is a good media performer and young enough to have sat out the Corbyn years in the hope that the Party might turn to him in the future. But he was promoted too quickly, spent hardly any time as a backbench MP before Ed M put him in the shadow cabinet and surrounded himself with sycophants of a similar age to him with little or no Labour Party experience. This alienated his local party and he also became known at Westminster for his self-regard and high-handed approach to colleagues. Can't see him staying in politics after ChUK founders.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @Mauve said:
    > >
    > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    >
    > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    >
    > Where in Cambridge is it?
    >

    It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?
    >
    > Like most MPs they don’t actually do he hard work themselves. Apart from reading and being on TV. Building a political party from nothing takes a lot. It looks like experience helps as Farage has done it better second time around

    Nevertheless when they launched, there was a media story that they had apparently done a fair bit of work preparing the ground including spending time and money with a US consultant. Quite what this consultant did to inform and professionalise their launch is not at all obvious to me.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2019
    > @DoubleD said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    >
    > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.

    I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    Something like
    Brexit 30
    Labour 17
    Tory 12
    Lib dem 12
    Green 9
    Change 8
    UKIP who cares
    In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @Mauve said:
    > > >
    > > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    > >
    > > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    > >
    > > Where in Cambridge is it?
    > >
    >
    > It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.

    Free on street parking on a Sunday in the residential roads north of the castle - Histon Road and its side streets. Park up there and walk down across the bridge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    The one thing the latest Euro polls have demolished is Palmer’s argument that voting Labour, whilst being a Wasted Vote in terms of expressing a clear opinion, is the only way to give the Brexit Party a run for first place.

    In the South East, South West and Eastern, the contenders are clearly now the LibDems. In Scotland SNP and in Wales PC. In London it’ll be between Labour, Green and LibDem. Probably the only regions in which Labour will be the BXP’s principal contender will be the northern English ones.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > >
    > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    >
    > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > Something like
    > Brexit 30
    > Labour 17
    > Tory 12
    > Lib dem 12
    > Green 9
    > Change 8
    > UKIP who cares
    > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote

    How do change get 8?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the Australian election was another prime example of the "echo chamber" effect. The media in Sydney and Melbourne were convinced they knew what was going to happen, and it turned out they were completely wrong. Although of course the polls didn't help.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @IanB2 said:
    > The one thing the latest Euro polls have demolished is Palmer’s argument that voting Labour, whilst being a Wasted Vote in terms of expressing a clear opinion, is the only way to give the Brexit Party a run for first place.
    >
    > In the South East, South West and Eastern, the contenders are clearly now the LibDems. In Scotland SNP and in Wales PC. In London it’ll be between Labour, Green and LibDem. Probably the only regions in which Labour will be the BXP’s principal contender will be the northern English ones.

    In the SE, SW and East its Lib or Tory, they are very close in most polls
    London should be very good for the LDs, the north will be very bleak for Labour, it's all about to go very Scotlab north of the Watford Gap
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    It's Eurovision time!!! :smiley:
  • DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > >
    > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    >
    > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > Something like
    > Brexit 30
    > Labour 17
    > Tory 12
    > Lib dem 12
    > Green 9
    > Change 8
    > UKIP who cares
    > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote

    It is difficult to know, but my waters so CUK on about 4%. I think Libs will do better. They are certainly confident. Greens will do better, too, IMO. But let's see.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    It's Eurovision time!!! :smiley:

    Can we please have a referendum on this?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1129747289617174528?s=19

    Con may well be worth a buy at the prices listed above.

    I don't do spreadbetting though.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > The likes of Umunna, Soubry and Wollaston are clearly intelligent, educated people. How the flying feckity doodah have they got themselves into this situation?

    They were seduced by the attention of the Westminster bubble into believing they were more in tune with the country than they really were. I really like Sarah Wollaston's position on Health and the experience she brings to parliament - but it is all proof that intellectual intelligence is not the same as political intelligence.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @nichomar said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > > >
    > > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    > >
    > > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > > Something like
    > > Brexit 30
    > > Labour 17
    > > Tory 12
    > > Lib dem 12
    > > Green 9
    > > Change 8
    > > UKIP who cares
    > > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
    >
    > How do change get 8?

    What when they have polled 8 in the last 2 weeks and are currently at 5 or 6, and have the advantage of 'newness' making their admittedly small vote relatively hard
    I'm stumped, how can they increase their share by 1 or 2 %?? Its a gulf that can never be breached!
    Theyll get 8 to 10 in London I think, certainly theor hopes for a seat are most likely London, SE and East regions.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Mauve said:
    > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > >
    > > > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    > > >
    > > > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    > > >
    > > > Where in Cambridge is it?
    > > >
    > >
    > > It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.
    >
    > Free on street parking on a Sunday in the residential roads north of the castle - Histon Road and its side streets. Park up there and walk down across the bridge.

    Thanks for the tip, I was going to try Chesterton Road first, but Histon Road is a good shout, hadn't realised it was unrestricted on Sunday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648

    It's Eurovision time!!! :smiley:

    Can we please have a referendum on this?
    Non-EU members welcome! Eg. Israel, Russia, Azerbaijan... San Marino!
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > >
    > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    >
    > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > Something like
    > Brexit 30
    > Labour 17
    > Tory 12
    > Lib dem 12
    > Green 9
    > Change 8
    > UKIP who cares
    > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote

    I'm waiting to see how Scotland turns out. I found the election communication from Ruth Davidson to be really annoying - it's the Euro's, not a commentary on Nicola's fixation with Sindy2. On talking to friends and colleagues I've found lots of support for TBP which I wasn't expecting. My kids are voting TBP which - again - I wasn't expecting. Strange times.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,390
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    > > > >
    > > > > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    > > > >
    > > > > Where in Cambridge is it?
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.
    > >
    > > Free on street parking on a Sunday in the residential roads north of the castle - Histon Road and its side streets. Park up there and walk down across the bridge.
    >
    > Thanks for the tip, I was going to try Chesterton Road first, but Histon Road is a good shout, hadn't realised it was unrestricted on Sunday.

    I grew up in Cambridge. I find it the most changed city in the UK - every time I go back there is so much more building and money sloshing about. I was told by a friend that it's the fastest growing part of the UK, growing at the rate Glasgow did in the 1840's. No idea if that's true.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > @nichomar said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > > > >
    > > > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    > > >
    > > > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > > > Something like
    > > > Brexit 30
    > > > Labour 17
    > > > Tory 12
    > > > Lib dem 12
    > > > Green 9
    > > > Change 8
    > > > UKIP who cares
    > > > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
    > >
    > > How do change get 8?
    >
    > What when they have polled 8 in the last 2 weeks and are currently at 5 or 6, and have the advantage of 'newness' making their admittedly small vote relatively hard
    > I'm stumped, how can they increase their share by 1 or 2 %?? Its a gulf that can never be breached!
    > Theyll get 8 to 10 in London I think, certainly theor hopes for a seat are most likely London, SE and East regions.

    Sorry read that as eight seats but even eight % is unlikely. The lib dems have a ground Organization which neither brexit or change have. Wait for turn out if below 30% the lib dems will do well if it hits 50% then who knows
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @nichomar said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > @nichomar said:
    > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > > > > >
    > > > > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    > > > >
    > > > > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > > > > Something like
    > > > > Brexit 30
    > > > > Labour 17
    > > > > Tory 12
    > > > > Lib dem 12
    > > > > Green 9
    > > > > Change 8
    > > > > UKIP who cares
    > > > > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
    > > >
    > > > How do change get 8?
    > >
    > > What when they have polled 8 in the last 2 weeks and are currently at 5 or 6, and have the advantage of 'newness' making their admittedly small vote relatively hard
    > > I'm stumped, how can they increase their share by 1 or 2 %?? Its a gulf that can never be breached!
    > > Theyll get 8 to 10 in London I think, certainly theor hopes for a seat are most likely London, SE and East regions.
    >
    > Sorry read that as eight seats but even eight % is unlikely. The lib dems have a ground Organization which neither brexit or change have. Wait for turn out if below 30% the lib dems will do well if it hits 50% then who knows
    >

    Change could completely flop and get 2 or 3% for sure, but it's a very febrile political atmosphere and I think therefore newness and freshness is an advantage and worth 1 or 2 % to them on it's own. All established parties including the Lib Dems have a job convincing their lot to bother or not 'lend' their vote at what many see as a pointless vote
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Latest Opinium poll is out .

    Good news for the BP, pretty good for the Lib Dems in the EU poll.

    Westminster Tories in third behind the BP.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @thecommissioner said:
    > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129826651817353219

    And euro is BXP 34, Lab 20, LibDem 15 Tory 12, not sure of the rest
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Opinion westminister Lab 29, BXP 24, Con 22
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2019
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > Opinium westminister Lab 29, BXP 24, Con 22, LD 11
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Which poll to believe !

    Opinium done 14 to 16 May . Or Survation conducted just on the 17 May.

    We need to see polling which captures much more of the post talks collapse , May going in June and the Bozo media frenzy .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,148
    > @thecommissioner said:
    > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385

    Just one month ago, I would have thought those were EU Parliamentary voting intentions.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > @Mauve said:
    > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Where in Cambridge is it?
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.
    > > >
    > > > Free on street parking on a Sunday in the residential roads north of the castle - Histon Road and its side streets. Park up there and walk down across the bridge.
    > >
    > > Thanks for the tip, I was going to try Chesterton Road first, but Histon Road is a good shout, hadn't realised it was unrestricted on Sunday.
    >
    > I grew up in Cambridge. I find it the most changed city in the UK - every time I go back there is so much more building and money sloshing about. I was told by a friend that it's the fastest growing part of the UK, growing at the rate Glasgow did in the 1840's. No idea if that's true.

    I can believe it, particularly if you include places like the Waterbeach and Eddington developments as part of Cambridge. I originally moved there for work about 8 years ago and was amazed at how well off it seemed to be. The amount of construction around the station and Addenbrookes is incredible. Combine that with large new offices going up at the Science park and it's definitively expanding quickly. I still work there, but I ended up moving out of the city due to the ridiculous house prices. I do miss some aspects, but being away from the traffic and crowding in the centre is a big relief.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @thecommissioner said:
    > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385
    >
    > Just one month ago, I would have thought those were EU Parliamentary voting intentions.

    I was about say those figures looked wrong until I saw your comment.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 260
    Peterborough by-election on 6th June
    There are fifteen candidates, and given a certain public weariness with elections and total disenchantment with the conventional parties, it could be won with a very low number of votes.
    Surely the value bet here is the Monster raving loony party at 1000-1
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,751
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > > > > > @Mauve said:
    > > > > > > >
    > > > > > > > Hopefully it won't just be me, Heidi Allen and some MEP candidates no-one has ever heard of. If it is I might have to pretend to be a tourist looking for King's College and make a hasty retreat.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > You must give us a full report tomorrow.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Where in Cambridge is it?
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > It's at the Cambridge Union, just behind the Round Church, so quite central. I'll be sure to give a full report on whether I'm told to look for the change in my hands or some rubbish like that. The real challenge will be finding parking near central Cambridge on a Sunday lunchtime.
    > > > >
    > > > > Free on street parking on a Sunday in the residential roads north of the castle - Histon Road and its side streets. Park up there and walk down across the bridge.
    > > >
    > > > Thanks for the tip, I was going to try Chesterton Road first, but Histon Road is a good shout, hadn't realised it was unrestricted on Sunday.
    > >
    > > I grew up in Cambridge. I find it the most changed city in the UK - every time I go back there is so much more building and money sloshing about. I was told by a friend that it's the fastest growing part of the UK, growing at the rate Glasgow did in the 1840's. No idea if that's true.
    >
    > I can believe it, particularly if you include places like the Waterbeach and Eddington developments as part of Cambridge. I originally moved there for work about 8 years ago and was amazed at how well off it seemed to be. The amount of construction around the station and Addenbrookes is incredible. Combine that with large new offices going up at the Science park and it's definitively expanding quickly. I still work there, but I ended up moving out of the city due to the ridiculous house prices. I do miss some aspects, but being away from the traffic and crowding in the centre is a big relief.

    I've never lived in the city centre (Milton, Waterbeach, Fen Ditton - a few meters outside the city bounds - Great Shelford, and now Cambourne), but its changed massively in the 22 years I've been around here, on and off.

    But those new developments you mention are shite, designed by architects who only have access to set squares and who seem to desperately love the rectangle over all other shapes. They're hideous.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > Opinion westminister Lab 29, BXP 24, Con 22

    We need PR urgently.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715
    edited May 2019
    > @Mauve said:
    >
    > I can believe it, particularly if you include places like the Waterbeach and Eddington developments as part of Cambridge. I originally moved there for work about 8 years ago and was amazed at how well off it seemed to be. The amount of construction around the station and Addenbrookes is incredible. Combine that with large new offices going up at the Science park and it's definitively expanding quickly. I still work there, but I ended up moving out of the city due to the ridiculous house prices. I do miss some aspects, but being away from the traffic and crowding in the centre is a big relief.

    ---

    The growth is caused by a number of factors. But, of course, one of the factors is the European Union.

    Cambridge University has been a huge beneficiary of EU funding (as have Oxford and Edinburgh Universities) -- which is not unconnected with the large Remain votes in these cities.

    And this has driven house prices inexorably upwards.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    > @franklyn said:
    > Peterborough by-election on 6th June
    > There are fifteen candidates, and given a certain public weariness with elections and total disenchantment with the conventional parties, it could be won with a very low number of votes.
    > Surely the value bet here is the Monster raving loony party at 1000-1

    Screaming Lord Sutch received 4.2% of the vote in Rotherham in 1995. Can OMRL save their deposit in Peterborough?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,648
    nunuone said:

    > @dyedwoolie said:

    > Opinion westminister Lab 29, BXP 24, Con 22



    We need PR urgently.

    Public Relations? :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    Sean_F said:

    > @thecommissioner said:

    >





    Just one month ago, I would have thought those were EU Parliamentary voting intentions.
    Bloody hell.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @thecommissioner said:
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Just one month ago, I would have thought those were EU Parliamentary voting intentions.
    >
    > Bloody hell.

    Do you think you're 3-0 with 10 minutes to go yet?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I suspect that circa 40% of those who intend to vote have now cast their votes.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Opinium also asked other questions .

    Labour would be on 30% if they came out for a second vote adding 10% to their current polling for the EU elections .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bizarely when Opinium ask the alternative question re Labour going for a second vote .

    The BP loses 4 points and both end up on 30% for the EU elections .
This discussion has been closed.