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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Eu

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Comments

  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > I've never lived in the city centre (Milton, Waterbeach, Fen Ditton - a few meters outside the city bounds - Great Shelford, and now Cambourne), but its changed massively in the 22 years I've been around here, on and off.
    >
    > But those new developments you mention are shite, designed by architects who only have access to set squares and who seem to desperately love the rectangle over all other shapes. They're hideous.

    You won't get any argument from me there, I struggle to believe any architects were actually involved, beyond signing their names on the forms. As with any new development anywhere in the country since 2000-ish the new developments in Cambridge are shite. Tiny gardens, tiny rooms, walls made of cardboard and people parking all over the place. Unfortunately I say that as someone living on a new-build estate in St Neots, so I only have myself to blame really.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @thecommissioner said:
    > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385
    >
    > Just one month ago, I would have thought those were EU Parliamentary voting intentions.

    unreal period we living through
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    >
    > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.

    I expect turnout around 35%, the question is who is best at GOTV.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    >
    > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.

    Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 288
    > @nichomar said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > @nichomar said:
    > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > > > > >
    > > > > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    > > > >
    > > > > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > > > > Something like
    > > > > Brexit 30
    > > > > Labour 17
    > > > > Tory 12
    > > > > Lib dem 12
    > > > > Green 9
    > > > > Change 8
    > > > > UKIP who cares
    > > > > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
    > > >
    > > > How do change get 8?
    > >
    > > What when they have polled 8 in the last 2 weeks and are currently at 5 or 6, and have the advantage of 'newness' making their admittedly small vote relatively hard
    > > I'm stumped, how can they increase their share by 1 or 2 %?? Its a gulf that can never be breached!
    > > Theyll get 8 to 10 in London I think, certainly theor hopes for a seat are most likely London, SE and East regions.
    >
    > Sorry read that as eight seats but even eight % is unlikely. The lib dems have a ground Organization which neither brexit or change have. Wait for turn out if below 30% the lib dems will do well if it hits 50% then who knows
    >

    The LibDems have a ground operation in 10-20% of the country.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    > @franklyn said:
    > Peterborough by-election on 6th June
    > There are fifteen candidates, and given a certain public weariness with elections and total disenchantment with the conventional parties, it could be won with a very low number of votes.
    > Surely the value bet here is the Monster raving loony party at 1000-1

    Only if the loonies are running the resurrected zombie corpse of Kat Mandu
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Foxy said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    >

    > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.



    I expect turnout around 35%, the question is who is best at GOTV.

    Record Euro Election turnout in the UK was 38.5% in 2004. Record lowest was 24.0% in 1999. In 2014, it was 35.6%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Foxy said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    >

    > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.



    I expect turnout around 35%, the question is who is best at GOTV.

    Hmm. GOTV doesn't really happen at a material level in the Euros. The constituencies are too big and the voting too proportional for it to matter.

    We should have left by now, and haven't, so I'd tilt in favour of Brexit turnout slightly. But we'll have to wait and see.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Nigel goes shopping and meets some friends..

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1129635227108876288
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > ??
    >
    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large

    Unconvinced.

    Farage was a 15 year old Dulwich College public school boy in 1979.

    Neither the age nor the clothes look right to me,
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.
    >
    >
    >
    > I expect turnout around 35%, the question is who is best at GOTV.
    >
    > Record Euro Election turnout in the UK was 38.5% in 2004. Record lowest was 24.0% in 1999. In 2014, it was 35.6%.

    Since 1999 Euro Elections have been combined with Local Elections in order to boost turnout.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    That's definitely fake news. Desperate stuff from Labour tbh.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    > @JonWC said:
    > > @nichomar said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > @nichomar said:
    > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > > @DoubleD said:
    > > > > > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > > > > > In better news for change I saw my first Change UK placard outside a house in Norwich today. I expect them to get about 8% and I think theyll pick up two meps - Esler in London and they might get one in the SE, theyll probably do ok in the SE, London and the remainy parts of the Midlands. They aren't going away, and there's a lot of facebook/social media support which theyll need to find how to keep energized. They need someone to take charge of establishing their base and constitution etc and have a more formal launch at an autumn conference
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > They are likely to get zero, as there are at least 5 bigger parties than them, and at most 8 seats per region. Brexit party will get 2 per region and typcailly Lab or Libs will get 2. 5 for the big 3. Therefore CUK fighting it out with Tories, UKIP and Greens for the last 3. Greens are powering on. CUK won't beat Tories. So,8th at best, after Brexit/Lab/Lib take 5, but likely the big 3 will take 6.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > I think including the Liberals as part of the big 3 is somewhat optimistic based on a couple of good polls, they dont have a great poll to actual vote ratio. I am expecting Labour to struggle to get much above 16-18% so parties getting 9% say are going to be placed to squeeze out Labours second seat
    > > > > > Something like
    > > > > > Brexit 30
    > > > > > Labour 17
    > > > > > Tory 12
    > > > > > Lib dem 12
    > > > > > Green 9
    > > > > > Change 8
    > > > > > UKIP who cares
    > > > > > In England would put change in the running for the last seat in a number of regions, Brexit 3 the rest one a piece a possible outcome in 8 seat regions on this sort of vote
    > > > >
    > > > > How do change get 8?
    > > >
    > > > What when they have polled 8 in the last 2 weeks and are currently at 5 or 6, and have the advantage of 'newness' making their admittedly small vote relatively hard
    > > > I'm stumped, how can they increase their share by 1 or 2 %?? Its a gulf that can never be breached!
    > > > Theyll get 8 to 10 in London I think, certainly theor hopes for a seat are most likely London, SE and East regions.
    > >
    > > Sorry read that as eight seats but even eight % is unlikely. The lib dems have a ground Organization which neither brexit or change have. Wait for turn out if below 30% the lib dems will do well if it hits 50% then who knows
    > >
    >
    > The LibDems have a ground operation in 10-20% of the country.

    Which is 10-20% more than tbp and change
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,711
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > >
    > > I've never lived in the city centre (Milton, Waterbeach, Fen Ditton - a few meters outside the city bounds - Great Shelford, and now Cambourne), but its changed massively in the 22 years I've been around here, on and off.
    > >
    > > But those new developments you mention are shite, designed by architects who only have access to set squares and who seem to desperately love the rectangle over all other shapes. They're hideous.
    >
    > You won't get any argument from me there, I struggle to believe any architects were actually involved, beyond signing their names on the forms. As with any new development anywhere in the country since 2000-ish the new developments in Cambridge are shite. Tiny gardens, tiny rooms, walls made of cardboard and people parking all over the place. Unfortunately I say that as someone living on a new-build estate in St Neots, so I only have myself to blame really.

    AH, that means I've almost certainly walked and run around your estate, as I think I've done all of the sizeable ones. ;)

    Loves Farm is surprisingly pleasant - they did that right, though I've heard dodgy things from friends about build quality. I don't like the other one south by the river.

    We were in St Neots today, watching John Wick 3 in the cinema that was built twice...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Mauve said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    >

    > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.



    Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.

    Neither have I.

    One thing I'm very certain of: Farage's opponents have absolutely no clue how to handle him. Any opposition I've seen has been the usual diet of calling him a bit of a racist and screaming, "who funds you?!"

    It's completely pathetic, but obviously makes them feel a tad better.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.
    >
    >
    >
    > I expect turnout around 35%, the question is who is best at GOTV.
    >
    > Hmm. GOTV doesn't really happen at a material level in the Euros. The constituencies are too big and the voting too proportional for it to matter.
    >
    > We should have left by now, and haven't, so I'd tilt in favour of Brexit turnout slightly. But we'll have to wait and see.

    I am just thinking that habitual voters are more likely to turnout than occasional voters. Not entirely sure how this shakes out in middle class but older. Perhaps Cons not so dismal as expected, but good for the LDs methinks.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @MaxPB said:
    > ??
    >
    >
    >
    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    >
    > That's definitely fake news. Desperate stuff from Labour tbh.<

    ++++++

    Yes I believe that has been investigated, and debunked completely.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > It's Eurovision time!!! :smiley:

    There had better be a "confirmatory" vote at the end to make 100% certain people knew what they were voting for. :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    > >
    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.
    >
    > Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.

    Glorious news. :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > ??
    >
    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large

    I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @shiney2 said:
    > Nigel goes shopping and meets some friends..
    >
    > https://twitter.com/i/status/1129635227108876288


    ++++

    Yet another slick video. Farage looks like a man slightly possessed by destiny. He's plugged into the mains. He's amped.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    > @thecommissioner said:
    > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385

    Putting those numbers into EC gives:
    CON 163
    LAB 298
    LIB 22
    UKIP 0
    Green 0
    SNP 55
    PlaidC 4
    ChUK 0
    Brexit 90
    Minor 0
    N.Ire 18

    Farage lets in a Corbyn / Sturgeon government. Tories down to numbers not seen since 1997. If those numbers were anywhere near accurate (debatable given the current situation) you can't fault his strategy of pretending to be in favour of both Leave and Remain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Norway song the best yet.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    > @JohnO said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > Went round my ward to deliver thank-you leaflets to everyone today and invite them to join my email list - some pleasant reactions to a politician NOT asking them about voting. I didn't think that pestering them about the Euros would be productive - just showing that voting Labour had produced a councillor who stayed in touch seemed as good a tactic as any. My impression nationally FWIW is that Labour's vote has stopped falling and Brexit's has stopped rising, but the latter are clearly ahead.
    >
    > So, are you about to become Leader of Waverley Borough Council as the compromise candidate of a four party coalition?

    No (lol), but some nice developments all the same coming on Tuesday. Promotion rather faster than it was at Westminster!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Sean_F said:

    > @bigjohnowls said:

    > ??

    >

    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large



    I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.

    Does it matter?

    It provides a delicious attack meme.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @JohnO said:
    > > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > Went round my ward to deliver thank-you leaflets to everyone today and invite them to join my email list - some pleasant reactions to a politician NOT asking them about voting. I didn't think that pestering them about the Euros would be productive - just showing that voting Labour had produced a councillor who stayed in touch seemed as good a tactic as any. My impression nationally FWIW is that Labour's vote has stopped falling and Brexit's has stopped rising, but the latter are clearly ahead.
    > >
    > > So, are you about to become Leader of Waverley Borough Council as the compromise candidate of a four party coalition?
    >
    > No (lol), but some nice developments all the same coming on Tuesday. Promotion rather faster than it was at Westminster!

    Palmer in the Cabinet. At last.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @MaxPB said:
    > ??
    >
    >
    >
    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    >
    > That's definitely fake news. Desperate stuff from Labour tbh.

    Does this come from Labour?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    >
    > > ??
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    >
    >
    >
    > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    >
    > Does it matter?
    >
    > It provides a delicious attack meme.

    You would have thought he would just deny it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    >
    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.
    >
    >
    >
    > Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.
    >
    > Neither have I.
    >
    > One thing I'm very certain of: Farage's opponents have absolutely no clue how to handle him. Any opposition I've seen has been the usual diet of calling him a bit of a racist and screaming, "who funds you?!"
    >
    > It's completely pathetic, but obviously makes them feel a tad better.

    Farage is undoubtably a mendaceous demagogue, but as he predominantly is destroying the Conservative Party, I am fairly phlegmatic about him
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Norway song the best yet.

    UK not bad :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492

    Norway song the best yet.

    UK not bad :)
    Standard 3rd round X-factor dross.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @Sean_F said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > ??
    > >
    > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    >
    > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.

    Was it a school day?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Foxy said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Casino_Royale said:

    >

    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.

    >

    >

    >

    > Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.

    >

    > Neither have I.

    >

    > One thing I'm very certain of: Farage's opponents have absolutely no clue how to handle him. Any opposition I've seen has been the usual diet of calling him a bit of a racist and screaming, "who funds you?!"

    >

    > It's completely pathetic, but obviously makes them feel a tad better.



    Farage is undoubtably a mendaceous demagogue, but as he predominantly is destroying the Conservative Party, I am fairly phlegmatic about him

    I wouldn't call him a demagogue.

    I would call him an egotist.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @Sean_F said:
    > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > ??
    > > >
    > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > >
    > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    >
    > Was it a school day?

    Whilst I know that some of you on here are cheerleaders for Nige, I'm afraid it's disingenuous to dismiss this as 'fake news.'

    There's a lot more than just smoke about it and the fact he is dodging questions is 'troubling.'

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-fascist-nazi-song-gas-them-all-ukip-brexit-schoolfriend-dulwich-college-a7185236.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    Iceland not going for the granny vote...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    OMG Iceland making Lordy look like Bros on Eurovision
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > >
    > > > ??
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    > >
    > > Does it matter?
    > >
    > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    >
    > You would have thought he would just deny it.

    Seems like the man highlighted was in fact the deputy chairman of the NF.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nigel-farage-martin-webster-photo/
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's a little like one of OGH's golden rules. Just as it's tempting to dismiss a poll as 'rogue' because it doesn't tell you what you want to hear, beware of dismissing stories simply because you don't want to listen.

    Nigel Farage.

    Hmmm ...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Norway song the best yet.

    UK not bad :)
    Standard 3rd round X-factor dross.
    Russia good, as were Norway (as you say).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Foxy said:

    > @Casino_Royale said:

    > > @Casino_Royale said:

    >

    > > I'm not sure the Euros have really got traction with the public. I've seen none of my friends discussing it on social media and zero at work.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > I still think TBP is overcooked but I might be wrong about that as the dynamic is different to the 2014 euros.

    >

    >

    >

    > Only anecdotal of course, but I had a discussion at work with a couple of colleagues in Remain Central (Cambridge) over lunch the other day about the EU elections. Of the three of them none realised that the Brexit Party was leading the polls, nor that the Conservatives were predicted to do so badly. These are all people I'd expect to be centrist-Remain types who always vote, but don't pay much attention to politics outside elections. I do wonder if there's a sense of complacency among Remainers in some parts of the country and that Farage will benefit off this significantly. I've not seen a single sign in anyone's window yet either.

    >

    > Neither have I.

    >

    > One thing I'm very certain of: Farage's opponents have absolutely no clue how to handle him. Any opposition I've seen has been the usual diet of calling him a bit of a racist and screaming, "who funds you?!"

    >

    > It's completely pathetic, but obviously makes them feel a tad better.



    Farage is undoubtably a mendaceous demagogue, but as he predominantly is destroying the Conservative Party, I am fairly phlegmatic about him

    I wouldn't call him a demagogue.

    I would call him an egotist.
    All pols are egotists!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....

    Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2019
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    >
    > > ??
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    >
    >
    >
    > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    >
    > Does it matter?
    >
    > It provides a delicious attack meme. <

    ++++

    It's bollocks. C4 factchecked it this week. Total hoax.


    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-theres-no-evidence-nigel-farage-was-in-the-national-front

    Tut tut Big John "Fake News" Owls.

    Farage is enough of a target without lying, His tide of migrants poster was hideous. By making shit up you turn him into a martyr, and even more of a hero. Stupid.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > It's a little like one of OGH's golden rules. Just as it's tempting to dismiss a poll as 'rogue' because it doesn't tell you what you want to hear, beware of dismissing stories simply because you don't want to listen.
    >
    > Nigel Farage.
    >
    > Hmmm ...

    On the other hand, it's easy to dismiss stories that have already been shown to be false.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > >
    > > > ??
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    > >
    > > Does it matter?
    > >
    > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    >
    > You would have thought he would just deny it.

    Streisand effect. No need to deny it until it's shown on the Six O'Clock News and the allegation is made by the MSM rather than random people on the internet.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @JackW said:
    > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    >
    > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:

    It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.

    I quite enjoyed it.

    It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)

    The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Belarus. 16?

    She looks about 24.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Foxy said:

    Iceland not going for the granny vote...

    Depends if the grannies are into S&M.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @RobD said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > >
    > > > > ??
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    > > >
    > > > Does it matter?
    > > >
    > > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    > >
    > > You would have thought he would just deny it.
    >
    > Seems like the man highlighted was in fact the deputy chairman of the NF.
    >
    > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nigel-farage-martin-webster-photo/

    He was born in 1948 (deputy chairman of the NF), that makes him 31 at the time of that photo??

    Nige should just say its not him rather than appearing to dodge the question IMO
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @RobD said:
    > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > ??
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    > > > >
    > > > > Does it matter?
    > > > >
    > > > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    > > >
    > > > You would have thought he would just deny it.
    > >
    > > Seems like the man highlighted was in fact the deputy chairman of the NF.
    > >
    > > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nigel-farage-martin-webster-photo/
    >
    > He was born in 1948 (deputy chairman of the NF), that makes him 31 at the time of that photo??
    >
    > Nige should just say its not him rather than appearing to dodge the question IMO

    Why does he have to do that when the story is clearly false?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    > @JackW said:

    > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    >
    > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:

    It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.

    I quite enjoyed it.

    It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)

    The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.

    Well it worked, I literally have forgotten what our one was.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    This is Richard Verall a year after

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6ektyCWwAAWIaY.png
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    > @JackW said:

    > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    >
    > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:

    It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.

    I quite enjoyed it.

    It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)

    The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.

    Well it worked, I literally have forgotten what our one was.
    In 2017, we came 15th with 111 points, and that was the year after the Referendum. Last year, we didn't do so well...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @RobD said:

    > > > > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    > > > >
    > > > > You would have thought he would just deny it.
    > > >
    > > > Seems like the man highlighted was in fact the deputy chairman of the NF.
    > > >
    > > > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nigel-farage-martin-webster-photo/
    > >
    > > He was born in 1948 (deputy chairman of the NF), that makes him 31 at the time of that photo??
    > >
    > > Nige should just say its not him rather than appearing to dodge the question IMO
    >
    > Why does he have to do that when the story is clearly false?

    ++++

    It's worse than a lie, or a smear, it's a mistake. And massively counter-productive.

    Farage's whole shtick in this campaign is that the Establishment is out to sabotage Brexit, and British democracy, and *they* will stop at nothing to get their way - from lying to cheating to bullying and so on.

    So in response to this pitch.... thousands of Remainers retweet a blatantly obvious lie, in an attempt to smear Farage, hoping to sabotage Brexit.

    A four year old could see the logical problem here. I despair of my fellow Remain voters. Too many are morons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > This is Richard Verall a year after
    >
    > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6ektyCWwAAWIaY.png

    Let's have another fact checker weigh in:

    https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-theres-no-evidence-nigel-farage-was-in-the-national-front

    And it looks like he has denied it:

    <i>When contacted by FactCheck, an aide to Mr Farage strenuously denied it was him in the photo – and all the evidence we have seen suggests that it is not him.</i>
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > > @JackW said:
    >
    > > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    > >
    > > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:
    >
    > It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.
    >
    > I quite enjoyed it.
    >
    > It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)
    >
    > The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.
    >
    > Well it worked, I literally have forgotten what our one was.

    I reckon that the BBC deliberately present a selection of instantly forgettable dross to be voted on by the public every year, so that they never have to pay to host it again. Combine a nobbled field with the fact that the average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61 anyway, and it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am far from convinced that a good vote share by BP - or indeed the LDs - on a pretty derisory turnout amounts to a great deal. If people really are steamed up about Brexit , why will only circa 35% bother to vote? The fact that over 60% are likely to stay at home rather contradicts the idea that the electorate is desperate to convey a message related to this issue.Probably little more than 11% of the electorate will express support for Farage's party next week - and a fair chunk of that will be based on an Anti-Establishment protest vote rather than the EU per se.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @JackW said:
    > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    >
    > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:

    The image behind Iceland looked a bit like an outline of Jezza I thought... :open_mouth:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @RobD said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > @RobD said:
    > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > ??
    > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Does it matter?
    > > > > >
    > > > > > It provides a delicious attack meme.
    > > > >
    > > > > You would have thought he would just deny it.
    > > >
    > > > Seems like the man highlighted was in fact the deputy chairman of the NF.
    > > >
    > > > https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nigel-farage-martin-webster-photo/
    > >
    > > He was born in 1948 (deputy chairman of the NF), that makes him 31 at the time of that photo??
    > >
    > > Nige should just say its not him rather than appearing to dodge the question IMO
    >
    > Why does he have to do that when the story is clearly false?

    Its clearly false is it.

    Yet Corbyn was a spy even after everybody proved he wasnt
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    I am fed up with people who say BRINO or BINO to talk about very soft forms of brexit. Anyone who is anyone is now calling it MEH-XIT.

    Anyway, I don't know if the market is still open but BetFred were letting you punt on top 10 finishes for Eurovision. I'm on Denmark, Switzerland, and Australia and on Netherlands to win
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > Its clearly false is it.
    >
    > Yet Corbyn was a spy even after everybody proved he wasnt
    >
    >

    Glad you have come to your senses, BJO.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1129850935319191552

    Who is the swinging Labour MP in the picture?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:
    Labour : enemies of Britain. Now, then, always.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @JackW said:
    > > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    > >
    > > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:
    >
    > The image behind Iceland looked a bit like an outline of Jezza I thought... :open_mouth:

    Anyone know how to vote Iceland!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    Serbia =hot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1129850935319191552

    Surely he'd be tried if it were true? For a sitting MP to be found guilty of espionage/treason... :o
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Another poll.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    > @TGOHF said:
    > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1129850935319191552
    >
    >
    >
    > Labour : enemies of Britain. Now, then, always.

    Nothing changes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @brokenwheel said:
    > > > @JackW said:
    > >
    > > > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    > > >
    > > > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:
    > >
    > > It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.
    > >
    > > I quite enjoyed it.
    > >
    > > It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)
    > >
    > > The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.
    > >
    > > Well it worked, I literally have forgotten what our one was.
    >
    > I reckon that the BBC deliberately present a selection of instantly forgettable dross to be voted on by the public every year, so that they never have to pay to host it again. Combine a nobbled field with the fact that the average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61 anyway, and it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.

    I suspect that the average of a Eurovision fan is rather younger.

    Our song was forgettable Saturday talent show pap. We are not even trying anymore.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Seen enough Eurovision

    And now we know what a 15 yr old Nige looks like!!

    Im off to bed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    > @Mauve said:
    > > @thecommissioner said:
    > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1129828517548560385
    >
    > Putting those numbers into EC gives:
    > CON 163
    > LAB 298
    > LIB 22
    > UKIP 0
    > Green 0
    > SNP 55
    > PlaidC 4
    > ChUK 0
    > Brexit 90
    > Minor 0
    > N.Ire 18
    >
    > Farage lets in a Corbyn / Sturgeon government. Tories down to numbers not seen since 1997. If those numbers were anywhere near accurate (debatable given the current situation) you can't fault his strategy of pretending to be in favour of both Leave and Remain.

    Yep. With the bonus of a split opposition.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @Recidivist said:
    > Another poll.

    Go Nigel (again) !!!!!!! :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    > @justin124 said:
    > I am far from convinced that a good vote share by BP - or indeed the LDs - on a pretty derisory turnout amounts to a great deal. If people really are steamed up about Brexit , why will only circa 35% bother to vote? The fact that over 60% are likely to stay at home rather contradicts the idea that the electorate is desperate to convey a message related to this issue.Probably little more than 11% of the electorate will express support for Farage's party next week - and a fair chunk of that will be based on an Anti-Establishment protest vote rather than the EU per se.

    That will certainly be what everyone says after Farage wins.

    They're not saying it now.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @RobD said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > This is Richard Verall a year after
    > >
    > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6ektyCWwAAWIaY.png
    >
    > Let's have another fact checker weigh in:
    >
    > https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-theres-no-evidence-nigel-farage-was-in-the-national-front
    >
    > And it looks like he has denied it:
    >
    > <i>When contacted by FactCheck, an aide to Mr Farage strenuously denied it was him in the photo – and all the evidence we have seen suggests that it is not him.</i>


    +++++

    Anyone with a functional nervous system can see it is not him. Look at the curve of the eyebrows, the nose, the set of the jaw (things that don't change over time). It's simply not him. Much as people may wish otherwise.

    Ironically, Farage himself has form for using doctored images:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/17/nigel-farage-fake-news-migrants-twitter

    Attack him for THAT, not this gibberish.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Seen enough Eurovision



    And now we know what a 15 yr old Nige looks like!!



    Im off to bed

    It's not him!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490

    > @bigjohnowls said:

    > > @Sean_F said:

    > > > @bigjohnowls said:

    > > > ??

    > > >

    > > > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6vt4lmWsAIud-e.jpg:large

    > >

    > > I doubt if 15 year old Nigel Farage would have dressed in such a manner, or would have been taking time out of school. Nor does it really look like him.

    >

    > Was it a school day?



    Whilst I know that some of you on here are cheerleaders for Nige, I'm afraid it's disingenuous to dismiss this as 'fake news.'



    There's a lot more than just smoke about it and the fact he is dodging questions is 'troubling.'



    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-fascist-nazi-song-gas-them-all-ukip-brexit-schoolfriend-dulwich-college-a7185236.html

    Now this person has been identified, are you going to admit the meme is 'fakenews'?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1129850935319191552
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Labour : enemies of Britain. Now, then, always.
    >
    > Nothing changes.

    Yeah Right

    Mail Commie Spy stories always stand up to the slightest whiff of scrutiny
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Foxy said:

    > @Black_Rook said:

    > > @brokenwheel said:

    > > > @JackW said:

    > >

    > > > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....

    > > >

    > > > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:

    > >

    > > It was kind of a mash-up of electronica and death metal.

    > >

    > > I quite enjoyed it.

    > >

    > > It certainly will have obliterated any vague memory amongst the European voting public of the preceding United Kingdom entry (Total Non-Entity performing "Instantly Forgettable," for the umpteenth year running.)

    > >

    > > The prospect of Royaume-Uni: nul points has just increased significantly.

    > >

    > > Well it worked, I literally have forgotten what our one was.

    >

    > I reckon that the BBC deliberately present a selection of instantly forgettable dross to be voted on by the public every year, so that they never have to pay to host it again. Combine a nobbled field with the fact that the average age of a BBC1 viewer is 61 anyway, and it's a recipe for guaranteed failure.



    I suspect that the average of a Eurovision fan is rather younger.



    Our song was forgettable Saturday talent show pap. We are not even trying anymore.

    In 2017, we came 15th with 111 points, and that was the year after the Referendum. Last year, we didn't do so well...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @TGOHF said:
    > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1129850935319191552
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Labour : enemies of Britain. Now, then, always.
    >
    > Nothing changes.

    Too bloody right
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Recidivist said:
    > > Another poll.
    >
    > Go Nigel (again) !!!!!!! :D
    > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > I am far from convinced that a good vote share by BP - or indeed the LDs - on a pretty derisory turnout amounts to a great deal. If people really are steamed up about Brexit , why will only circa 35% bother to vote? The fact that over 60% are likely to stay at home rather contradicts the idea that the electorate is desperate to convey a message related to this issue.Probably little more than 11% of the electorate will express support for Farage's party next week - and a fair chunk of that will be based on an Anti-Establishment protest vote rather than the EU per se.
    >
    > That will certainly be what everyone says after Farage wins.
    >
    > They're not saying it now.

    But some of us are saying it now!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Vote for the very tall Poles (Australia))
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Australia channeling Kate Bush?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Hope the Aussies win and the whole shebang moves to the antipodes next year.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Decent Kate Bush tribute from the Aussie :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,492
    edited May 2019
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Recidivist said:
    > > > Another poll.
    > >
    > > Go Nigel (again) !!!!!!! :D
    > > @Casino_Royale said:
    > > > @justin124 said:
    > > > I am far from convinced that a good vote share by BP - or indeed the LDs - on a pretty derisory turnout amounts to a great deal. If people really are steamed up about Brexit , why will only circa 35% bother to vote? The fact that over 60% are likely to stay at home rather contradicts the idea that the electorate is desperate to convey a message related to this issue.Probably little more than 11% of the electorate will express support for Farage's party next week - and a fair chunk of that will be based on an Anti-Establishment protest vote rather than the EU per se.
    > >
    > > That will certainly be what everyone says after Farage wins.
    > >
    > > They're not saying it now.
    >
    > But some of us are saying it now!

    You are but if the tables were turned any party would love the platform of winning the Euros for their own purposes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Theres nothing holding them down!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,736
    > @geoffw said:
    > Hope the Aussies win and the whole shebang moves to the antipodes next year.

    I believe that they have to host it in Europe.

    Probably in Blighty!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @JackW said:
    > > > Iceland song/performance after the watershed thankfully .... !! ....
    > > >
    > > > Mrs JackW in shock !! .... :astonished:
    > >
    > > The image behind Iceland looked a bit like an outline of Jezza I thought... :open_mouth:
    >
    > Anyone know how to vote Iceland!!!

    Wardruna meets BDSM
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    "If windscreen wipers could sing"

    :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    geoffw said:

    Hope the Aussies win and the whole shebang moves to the antipodes next year.

    Norton just said the contest will stay in Europe even if they win :)
This discussion has been closed.