> Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...
>
> Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame... > > > > > > Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really? > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett > > > > Loyal to the last. Applauds. > > Me, loyal to Boris? Are you mad? > > But I do keep a sense of perspective. There's awful, and there's George Brown.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame... > > > > > > Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really? > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown > > > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett > > > > Loyal to the last. Applauds. > > Me, loyal to Boris? Are you mad? > > But I do keep a sense of perspective. There's awful, and there's George Brown.
George Brown was Foreign Secretary from July 1966 to March 1968 when he resigned in a huff. He was famous for getting drunk - largely due to his inability to absorb alcohol rather than the quantity consumed. Beyond that, he was not that disastrous in the office and was nothing like as self serving as Boris - ie George Brown did have principles as a committed European.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > .> > > Reckless is no worse than Boris. > > Reckless is far worse. > > He has nothing to do with Wales, yet he stood as a Welsh AM. > > That takes a certain bare-faced gall. >
James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Keir Hardie would also fail that test - as would my former MP in Pembroke - Desmond Donnelly.
I'm currently assuming that there is a strong chance that I'll resign from the party following the leadership election, but I'm staying for now so as to have the vote. Perhaps there's a small chance that the party hasn't completely lost its marbles, but if it's a committed no-dealer than I'm off. I'm not interested in being a member of a death cult.
If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign.
I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @MaxPB said: > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > ------------- > How would you vote if it looked like Farage was best placed to stop Corbyn, not Boris? <
Boris doesn't particularly believe in very much at all, he could well beat Corbyn at the ballot box if he can find a way out the Brexit quagmire though.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > When he’s your leader, will you campaign for him? > > I'm currently assuming that there is a strong chance that I'll resign from the party following the leadership election, but I'm staying for now so as to have the vote. Perhaps there's a small chance that the party hasn't completely lost its marbles, but if it's a committed no-dealer than I'm off. I'm not interested in being a member of a death cult. > > If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign. > > I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand.
We live in interesting times. I fear the likes of us may have to bury the hatchet and unite against a more dangerous foe. Farage seems to be having a lot of success with the Trump playbook.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > > James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Keir Hardie would also fail that test - as would my former MP in Pembroke - Desmond Donnelly. > > ---- > > And Ramsey MacDonald, for that matter. > > Times have changed, Justin. > > Pleased to see you remember the rogue, Desmond Donnelly.
Indeed - Ramsay Macdonald was MP for Aberavon for a few years. I certainly recall Donnelly - though not with affection despite him still being viewed to this day as an excellent constituency MP. Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > When he’s your leader, will you campaign for him? > > I'm currently assuming that there is a strong chance that I'll resign from the party following the leadership election, but I'm staying for now so as to have the vote. Perhaps there's a small chance that the party hasn't completely lost its marbles, but if it's a committed no-dealer than I'm off. I'm not interested in being a member of a death cult. > > If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign. > > I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand. <
++++
You are right to wait. There is a chance that Boris will be the Nixon that went to China. As an unabashed Brexiteer he is in a position to fudge red lines that Remainer T May was not.
e.g. he could be more flexible on FoM, and get us into a Switzerland/Norway position.
OK it's just a chance, but right now we have no chance of any political progress, we are utterly stymied by Brexit. So it is an improvement.
ALSO Boris would immediately take students out of the migration stats. A big plus. T May has been blocking all this stuff for a decade.
Boris doesn't particularly believe in very much at all, he could well beat Corbyn at the ballot box if he can find a way out the Brexit quagmire though.
The trouble is that he's helped block off the ways out of the quagmire. Lord only knows what stunt he thinks he could bring off to find a way out which Theresa May and all her advisers couldn't find.
The same problem applies to any other contender, of course. It's remarkable that any of them want the job.
There is a touching faith in some quarters that a new PM will solve the problem. The Tories cannot win a GE without Brexit. And they can't Brexit, cos they don't have the numbers in Parliament. That so many are lining up to lead the inevitable defeat shows that faith in miracles and divine intervention is still strong in our modern life. See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma. We will be saved by faith alone.
If things go the way they are heading -Boris becoming Tory leader-I can't see how Parlament is going to vote for Brexit-ever. It's not in any party's interest collectively so the MPs will go their own way. So roughly 2/3rds Remain 1/3rd Leave. Brexit RIP.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > > Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear. > > I believe that is UKIP policy
Whereas the English Democrats want an English Parliament and an English equivalent at minimum
Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too.
At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
> @IanB2 said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
> @HYUFD said: > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes ----------------------- But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough?
> @HYUFD said: > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
------- Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition.
> @Benpointer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > Just over 17 million, in 1933. > > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.) > > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
It is a deeply stupid comparison given the history of extreme violence including an attempted coup that had already marked the development of the Nazi party to that point. It is a classic example of Godwin's law exhibited by people who are too lazy to bother to find out the facts.
> @justin124 said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > A deeply stupid and ignorant comment. > > It also happens to be true.
> @Benpointer said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > Just over 17 million, in 1933. > > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.) > > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
I would be tempted by a bet that she resigns as Conservative leader before Corbyn stops being Labour leader, but it's still PM after he has quit. Hunch is two leader changes in the next few months.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes > > ------- > Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition. ---------------------- That is less clear to me. Some of them, definitely. But let us not forget that even some very ardent Brexiteers reluctantly voted for the WA because they felt it might be the only Brexit on offer, and despite what some holdouts think they considered that the WA was still Brexit, if a crappy one.
Now, with BP riding high those who hate the WA will also be bouyed in that belief, and there will be plenty of the public who agree. But given even most of the ERG did crumble to the WA last time, if it were to be passed I think it reasonable to suppose some amount of the BP support, especially in Westminster voting intention, would go away.
There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party!
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > Whereas the English Democrats want an English Parliament and an English equivalent at minimum > > Of course England should have a Parliament -- it is a separate country with a long history of its own.
I support an English Parliament and a Welsh Assembly with Westminster becoming a Federal Parliament dealing largely with foreign affairs, defence and big tax and spending decisions but leaving most domestic policy to the devolved Parliaments and Assemblies, much as occurs in, for example, Germany, Canada, Australia or the USA
> @kle4 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes > ----------------------- > But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough?
Most Labour seats voted Leave, if their MPs start panicking about losing their seats to the BP it could be more than 50 to get it over the 326 line.
JRM and Boris voted for the WA as they saw more MPs voting for extension or revoke over No Deal
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes > > ------- > Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition.
Staying in the EU will give them even more ammunition
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > > > Just over 17 million, in 1933. > > > > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.) > > > > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences? > > It is a deeply stupid comparison given the history of extreme violence including an attempted coup that had already marked the development of the Nazi party to that point. It is a classic example of Godwin's law exhibited by people who are too lazy to bother to find out the facts.
You think the 13.7million Germans who voted for Hitler in July 1932 were all committed Nazis? Of course they weren't - many undoubtedly voted for change, were sucked-in by anti-establshiment populism and didn't envisage the consequences. At least they had an excuse that nothing like the Nazis had happened before.
Do I think that we are re-living the last days of the Wiemar Republic? No - but there are some worrying parallels.
The Brexit Party are now leading the Scottish Tories in most Scottish European elections polls, which might lessen the concern of Scottish Tories at a Brexiteer leading the UK Party
> @kle4 said: > > There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party! > > But I doubt the situation will arise.
-----------
The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
> @kle4 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma. > > > > We will be saved by faith alone. > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129143183625953281 > > Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too. > > At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
The most bizarre belief, still solemnly intoned, is that the election of a Leaver will mean the EU will re-open the WA. The scales will fall from their eyes, like Saul on the road to Damascus, and the backstop will be binned. By the power of faith and faith alone.
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now. > > > > > > > > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes > > ----------------------- > > But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough? > > Most Labour seats voted Leave, if their MPs start panicking about losing their seats to the BP it could be more than 50 to get it over the 326 line. > > > JRM and Boris voted for the WA as they saw more MPs voting for extension or revoke over No Deal >
Been somewhat busy with the local elections, a few days in Cannes, and now my busiest month of the year, but had to pop in to correct this wishful HYUFDian thinking:
May didn't have the numbers before today, and I suspect in setting the timetable for setting the timetable for her departure, she's probably lost another 25 Brexiteers.
Labour Leave MPs seem to be mythical beasts. They are Labour MPs for constituencies that voted Leave: they are not going to vote for a lame duck PM's deal.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > > > Just over 17 million, in 1933. > > > > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.) > > > > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences? > > Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
Yes I agree with that.
'Not as bad a Hitler' is not much of an endorsement for either though.
> @williamglenn said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party! > > > > But I doubt the situation will arise. > > ----------- > > The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with the WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as UKIP got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are adamantly opposed to the WA and backstop and any compromise with the EU
If I was a Tory and I wanted to stop Brexit I'd vote for Boris. With him as Leader he will never get 320 MPs voting for any Brexit he might cook up. He'll need an election and I don't believe he has a dog's chance of getting a majority-even against Corbyn.
> @dixiedean said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma. > > > > > > We will be saved by faith alone. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129143183625953281 > > > > Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too. > > > > At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some. > > The most bizarre belief, still solemnly intoned, is that the election of a Leaver will mean the EU will re-open the WA. The scales will fall from their eyes, like Saul on the road to Damascus, and the backstop will be binned. > By the power of faith and faith alone.
------
Although once the EU doesn't roll-over the EU hardliners will push for No Deal Brexit and try to blame the consequences on the intransigent EU.
> @HYUFD said: > > The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU ------------
You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two. > > > > > > > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on. > > > > > > > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote. > > > > > > > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey. > > > > > > > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it. > > > > > > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections. > > > > > > Just over 17 million, in 1933. > > > > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.) > > > > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences? > > Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
Putin is the world's leading fascist today. Beware of any politicians with ties to him.
> > Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too.
> >
> > At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
>
> The most bizarre belief, still solemnly intoned, is that the election of a Leaver will mean the EU will re-open the WA. The scales will fall from their eyes, like Saul on the road to Damascus, and the backstop will be binned.
> By the power of faith and faith alone.
------
Although once the EU doesn't roll-over the EU hardliners will push for No Deal Brexit and try to blame the consequences on the intransigent EU.
If only somebody had, some years ago, coined a handy three-word phrase to describe such failing and blaming...
Richard Leonard reasonably fluent and passionate on QT, he actually looks better than the current leader of Welsh Labour Mark Drakeford and more presentable.
And if you overlay the furthest advance of the German Army on the Eastern Front in early 1918, it's not too far removed from the Wehrmacht's furthest advance in 1941-1942.
> @williamglenn said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party! > > > > But I doubt the situation will arise. > > ----------- > > The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
I am sure he will. But his principal complaint that we are not out will be addressed in a manner that at least some currently backing him will accept, and 'this is not a good enough brexit' is a harder sell (though still popular) than 'we have not brexited at all'.
No passing the WA would not resolve the longer term issues, but it achieves a level of progress, legally clear progress, which would be something, and we can get on with arguing about the next phase.
But it is further away than it was 2 months ago. What a waste. Good night all.
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU > ------------ > > You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
And, of course, we will be bound by all the rules with no say on them. Finally in something approximating the claims of Leavers, but at their behest.
Richard Leonard reasonably fluent and passionate on QT, he actually looks better than the current leader of Welsh Labour Mark Drakeford and more presentable.
But he does seem to have mislaid a surname. The uber-thesp Nicholas Craig (played by Nigel Planer) points out that actors, being inherently untrustworthy, choose stagenames that consist of two forenames and no surname (eg "Daniel Craig")
> @viewcode said: > Richard Leonard reasonably fluent and passionate on QT, he actually looks better than the current leader of Welsh Labour Mark Drakeford and more presentable. > > But he does seem to have mislaid a surname. The uber-thesp Nicholas Craig (played by Nigel Planer) points out that actors, being inherently untrustworthy, choose stagenames that consist of two forenames and no surname (eg "Daniel Craig")
> @AndyJS said: > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador: > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority
> @Roger said: > If I was a Tory and I wanted to stop Brexit I'd vote for Boris. With him as Leader he will never get 320 MPs voting for any Brexit he might cook up. He'll need an election and I don't believe he has a dog's chance of getting a majority-even against Corbyn.
I think Boris certainly could get a majority against Corbyn, I don't think any other frontline Tory could.
If the WA fails a 4th time then the current Commons will likely vote to revoke Art 50 anyway when Macron refuses to extend further in October
> @williamglenn said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU > ------------ > > You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
It will have been settled, we will have left the EU, the transition period is only 2 years anyway regardless of whether or not we have agreed the future relationship by then
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador: > > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg > Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority >
Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too.
> @HYUFD said: > > It will have been settled, we will have left the EU, the transition period is only 2 years anyway regardless of whether or not we have agreed the future relationship by then ------
Transition to what? All those questions will still be open.
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador: > > > > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg > > Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority > > > > Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too.
Trudeau will almost certainly lose his majority in the autumn, Alberta, British Columbia and the West have overwhelming Conservative leads in the polls but he could still stay PM provided he wins Ontario and the Atlantic provinces and Maritimes given he will still win Quebec regardless.
Palestinian terror group Hamas THANKS Jeremy Corbyn for his support: Militants ‘salute’ Labour leader online after he sent message to anti-Israel rally last weekend
> @HYUFD said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador: > > > > > > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg > > > Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority > > > > > > > Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too. > > Trudeau will almost certainly lose his majority in the autumn, Alberta, British Columbia and the West have overwhelming Conservative leads in the polls but he could still stay PM provided he wins Ontario and the Atlantic provinces and Maritimes given he will still win Quebec regardless.
Yep. Minor parties NDP and BQ are more natural Liberal allies so he may stagger on. How he will regret his broken promises on PR.
YouGov also asked participants about their voting intention if there were a general election. The main parties emerged neck and neck, with the Brexit Party behind in a poll of 1,655 people on Monday and Tuesday.
The Tories and Labour were each on 25 per cent, 18 per cent chose the Brexit Party, 16 per cent the Lib Dems, 7 per cent the Greens and 2 per cent Change UK and Ukip.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
At this rate they'd be closer to getting a pity vote from me. The core of the Tory party on Brexit are just plain awful, but those who sought a deal don't deserve this, and it is weird that those most responsible for not brexiting will get their way in the party as a result of this.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > YouGov also asked participants about their voting intention if there were a general election. The main parties emerged neck and neck, with the Brexit Party behind in a poll of 1,655 people on Monday and Tuesday. > > The Tories and Labour were each on 25 per cent, 18 per cent chose the Brexit Party, 16 per cent the Lib Dems, 7 per cent the Greens and 2 per cent Change UK and Ukip.
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 275, Labour 267, SNP 56, LDs 22, Brexit Party 18.
> My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
At this rate they'd be closer to getting a pity vote from me. The core of the Tory party on Brexit are just plain awful, but those who sought a deal don't deserve this, and it is weird that those most responsible for not brexiting will get their way in the party as a result of this.
Brexit in a nutshell.
It has only rewarded those on the extremes.
Just think we've gone from No Deal Brexit is just Project Fear to No Deal Brexit is the only true Brexit.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > > > Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear. > > I believe that is UKIP policy
That is a bit like saying Hitler was a vegetarian and kind to animals.
> @kle4 said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1. > > At this rate they'd be closer to getting a pity vote from me. The core of the Tory party on Brexit are just plain awful, but those who sought a deal don't deserve this, and it is weird that those most responsible for not brexiting will get their way in the party as a result of this.
It might have been better for the Tories not to contest these elections. Anything is better than going sub-10%. With that level of support, there are going to be a lot of ballot boxes in places like Liverpool and Glasgow with no Tory votes at all.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/16/how-does-labour-plan-to-pay-for-its-energy-nationalisation-policy
But I do keep a sense of perspective. There's awful, and there's George Brown.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
>
> > Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...
>
> >
>
> > Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really?
>
> >
>
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown
>
> >
>
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett
>
>
>
> Loyal to the last. Applauds.
>
> Me, loyal to Boris? Are you mad?
>
> But I do keep a sense of perspective. There's awful, and there's George Brown.
When he’s your leader, will you campaign for him?
> Reckless is no worse than Boris.
Reckless is far worse.
He has nothing to do with Wales, yet he stood as a Welsh AM.
That takes a certain bare-faced gall.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
>
> > Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...
>
> >
>
> > Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really?
>
> >
>
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown
>
> >
>
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett
>
>
>
> Loyal to the last. Applauds.
>
> Me, loyal to Boris? Are you mad?
>
> But I do keep a sense of perspective. There's awful, and there's George Brown.
George Brown was Foreign Secretary from July 1966 to March 1968 when he resigned in a huff. He was famous for getting drunk - largely due to his inability to absorb alcohol rather than the quantity consumed. Beyond that, he was not that disastrous in the office and was nothing like as self serving as Boris - ie George Brown did have principles as a committed European.
> .>
> > Reckless is no worse than Boris.
>
> Reckless is far worse.
>
> He has nothing to do with Wales, yet he stood as a Welsh AM.
>
> That takes a certain bare-faced gall.
>
James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Keir Hardie would also fail that test - as would my former MP in Pembroke - Desmond Donnelly.
----
And Ramsey MacDonald, for that matter.
Times have changed, Justin.
Pleased to see you remember the rogue, Desmond Donnelly.
If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign.
I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @MaxPB said:
> > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> >
> > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> >
> > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> >
> > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> >
> > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> -------------
> How would you vote if it looked like Farage was best placed to stop Corbyn, not Boris? <
++++++
Farage
> When he’s your leader, will you campaign for him?
>
> I'm currently assuming that there is a strong chance that I'll resign from the party following the leadership election, but I'm staying for now so as to have the vote. Perhaps there's a small chance that the party hasn't completely lost its marbles, but if it's a committed no-dealer than I'm off. I'm not interested in being a member of a death cult.
>
> If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign.
>
> I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand.
We live in interesting times. I fear the likes of us may have to bury the hatchet and unite against a more dangerous foe. Farage seems to be having a lot of success with the Trump playbook.
> Incidentally, you know things are bad when even the Guardian can't hide its bemusement at the complete economic illiteracy of a Labour proposal:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/16/how-does-labour-plan-to-pay-for-its-energy-nationalisation-policy
You know things are bad when it looks distinctly possible that they will have a go at implementing it.
>
> > James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Keir Hardie would also fail that test - as would my former MP in Pembroke - Desmond Donnelly.
>
> ----
>
> And Ramsey MacDonald, for that matter.
>
> Times have changed, Justin.
>
> Pleased to see you remember the rogue, Desmond Donnelly.
Indeed - Ramsay Macdonald was MP for Aberavon for a few years. I certainly recall Donnelly - though not with affection despite him still being viewed to this day as an excellent constituency MP.
Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear.
> When he’s your leader, will you campaign for him?
>
> I'm currently assuming that there is a strong chance that I'll resign from the party following the leadership election, but I'm staying for now so as to have the vote. Perhaps there's a small chance that the party hasn't completely lost its marbles, but if it's a committed no-dealer than I'm off. I'm not interested in being a member of a death cult.
>
> If the next leader is Boris - which I had thought was unlikely, but looks more likely now - then I'll wait a bit. I still have a small hope that, since he's entirely cynical, dishonest, and without any principles whatsoever, he might renege on the loony positions he's pretended to take and pivot towards sanity. I'd have to wait and see - if, for example, he kept Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Phil Hammond in senior roles, that would be an encouraging sign.
>
> I can live with self-serving duplicity, but not with someone who is genuinely committed to deluded nonsense. That's much more dangerous, as you as a Labour supporter will understand. <
++++
You are right to wait. There is a chance that Boris will be the Nixon that went to China. As an unabashed Brexiteer he is in a position to fudge red lines that Remainer T May was not.
e.g. he could be more flexible on FoM, and get us into a Switzerland/Norway position.
OK it's just a chance, but right now we have no chance of any political progress, we are utterly stymied by Brexit. So it is an improvement.
ALSO Boris would immediately take students out of the migration stats. A big plus. T May has been blocking all this stuff for a decade.
Bad news! It looks like shit. I am vexed...
> https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1129139007672201216
If the deckchair had also pointed to a way to avoid the iceberg but was ignored by people happy to believe the ship could steam right through it.
The same problem applies to any other contender, of course. It's remarkable that any of them want the job.
I believe that is UKIP policy
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1129116969050025985
That so many are lining up to lead the inevitable defeat shows that faith in miracles and divine intervention is still strong in our modern life. See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma.
We will be saved by faith alone.
>
> > Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear.
>
> I believe that is UKIP policy
Whereas the English Democrats want an English Parliament and an English equivalent at minimum
> See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma.
>
> We will be saved by faith alone.
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129143183625953281
Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too.
At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > >
> > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > >
> > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > >
> > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > >
> > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> >
> > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
>
> Just over 17 million, in 1933.
That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
>
> Whereas the English Democrats want an English Parliament and an English equivalent at minimum
Of course England should have a Parliament -- it is a separate country with a long history of its own.
> The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
>
>
> No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
-----------------------
But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough?
> The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
>
>
> No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
-------
Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > >
> > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > >
> > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > >
> > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > >
> > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > >
> > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> >
> > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
>
> That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
>
> The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
It is a deeply stupid comparison given the history of extreme violence including an attempted coup that had already marked the development of the Nazi party to that point. It is a classic example of Godwin's law exhibited by people who are too lazy to bother to find out the facts.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > >
> > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > >
> > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > >
> > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > >
> > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > >
> > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> >
> > A deeply stupid and ignorant comment.
>
> It also happens to be true.
It also happens to be fatuous.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > >
> > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > >
> > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > >
> > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > >
> > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > >
> > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> >
> > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
>
> That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
>
> The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
> What odds May outlasting Corbyn?
I would be tempted by a bet that she resigns as Conservative leader before Corbyn stops being Labour leader, but it's still PM after he has quit.
Hunch is two leader changes in the next few months.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
> >
> >
> > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
>
> -------
> Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition.
----------------------
That is less clear to me. Some of them, definitely. But let us not forget that even some very ardent Brexiteers reluctantly voted for the WA because they felt it might be the only Brexit on offer, and despite what some holdouts think they considered that the WA was still Brexit, if a crappy one.
Now, with BP riding high those who hate the WA will also be bouyed in that belief, and there will be plenty of the public who agree. But given even most of the ERG did crumble to the WA last time, if it were to be passed I think it reasonable to suppose some amount of the BP support, especially in Westminster voting intention, would go away.
There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party!
But I doubt the situation will arise.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> >
> > Whereas the English Democrats want an English Parliament and an English equivalent at minimum
>
> Of course England should have a Parliament -- it is a separate country with a long history of its own.
I support an English Parliament and a Welsh Assembly with Westminster becoming a Federal Parliament dealing largely with foreign affairs, defence and big tax and spending decisions but leaving most domestic policy to the devolved Parliaments and Assemblies, much as occurs in, for example, Germany, Canada, Australia or the USA
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
> >
> >
> > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
> -----------------------
> But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough?
Most Labour seats voted Leave, if their MPs start panicking about losing their seats to the BP it could be more than 50 to get it over the 326 line.
JRM and Boris voted for the WA as they saw more MPs voting for extension or revoke over No Deal
> > @HYUFD said:
> > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
> >
> >
> > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
>
> -------
> Voting for the deal won't make the Brexit Party go away. It will just give them further ammunition.
Staying in the EU will give them even more ammunition
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > > >
> > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > > >
> > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > > >
> > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > > >
> > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> > >
> > > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
> >
> > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
> >
> > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
>
> It is a deeply stupid comparison given the history of extreme violence including an attempted coup that had already marked the development of the Nazi party to that point. It is a classic example of Godwin's law exhibited by people who are too lazy to bother to find out the facts.
You think the 13.7million Germans who voted for Hitler in July 1932 were all committed Nazis? Of course they weren't - many undoubtedly voted for change, were sucked-in by anti-establshiment populism and didn't envisage the consequences. At least they had an excuse that nothing like the Nazis had happened before.
Do I think that we are re-living the last days of the Wiemar Republic? No - but there are some worrying parallels.
(PS And why do you always have to be so angry?)
> https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1129146473218752512
The Brexit Party are now leading the Scottish Tories in most Scottish European elections polls, which might lessen the concern of Scottish Tories at a Brexiteer leading the UK Party
>
> There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party!
>
> But I doubt the situation will arise.
-----------
The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma.
> >
> > We will be saved by faith alone.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129143183625953281
>
> Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too.
>
> At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
The most bizarre belief, still solemnly intoned, is that the election of a Leaver will mean the EU will re-open the WA. The scales will fall from their eyes, like Saul on the road to Damascus, and the backstop will be binned.
By the power of faith and faith alone.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > The key to passing the WA is not actually whether Corbyn and May agree a Deal, which would require a CU, as most Tory MPs would vote against anyway and over half of Labour MPs would also vote against without a confirmatory referendum so it would never pass now.
> > >
> > >
> > > No, what is key is getting the 50 or so Labour Leave MPs to vote for May's Withdrawal Agreement as is in early June, add them to the 386 who voted for it last time and you get to 336 and over the 226 needed for a majority. The better the Brexit Party do in the European elections and Peterborough by election, especially if they beat Labour as well as the Tories in both, the more likely that becomes
> > -----------------------
> > But the better the BP do the fewer Tories will vote for the WA - they're down Drax immediately after the last vote, and you think JRM and Boris will give the WA another shot when the Tory vote is collapsing toward BP? Would 50 Lab be enough?
>
> Most Labour seats voted Leave, if their MPs start panicking about losing their seats to the BP it could be more than 50 to get it over the 326 line.
>
>
> JRM and Boris voted for the WA as they saw more MPs voting for extension or revoke over No Deal
>
Been somewhat busy with the local elections, a few days in Cannes, and now my busiest month of the year, but had to pop in to correct this wishful HYUFDian thinking:
May didn't have the numbers before today, and I suspect in setting the timetable for setting the timetable for her departure, she's probably lost another 25 Brexiteers.
Labour Leave MPs seem to be mythical beasts. They are Labour MPs for constituencies that voted Leave: they are not going to vote for a lame duck PM's deal.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > > >
> > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > > >
> > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > > >
> > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > > >
> > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> > >
> > > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
> >
> > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
> >
> > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
>
> Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
Yes I agree with that.
'Not as bad a Hitler' is not much of an endorsement for either though.
> > @kle4 said:
> >
> > There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party!
> >
> > But I doubt the situation will arise.
>
> -----------
>
> The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with the WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as UKIP got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are adamantly opposed to the WA and backstop and any compromise with the EU
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > See also the importance attached to it being a Leaver. That is someone who "believes" in Brexit, as if that solves the dilemma.
> > >
> > > We will be saved by faith alone.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129143183625953281
> >
> > Yes, that will fix things somehow. All those Tory remainers- the 5 or 6 of them - are the reason Brexit has not happened. And a leaver PM also means the votes of other parties magically switch to Brexit too.
> >
> > At least unlike Boris he believes what he says on Brexit and is not just positioning for the leadership, but these hardcore leavers really make me hate myself for my previous actions, which will no doubt be a relief to some.
>
> The most bizarre belief, still solemnly intoned, is that the election of a Leaver will mean the EU will re-open the WA. The scales will fall from their eyes, like Saul on the road to Damascus, and the backstop will be binned.
> By the power of faith and faith alone.
------
Although once the EU doesn't roll-over the EU hardliners will push for No Deal Brexit and try to blame the consequences on the intransigent EU.
> https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1129141687794618370
A general election leading to a Con/Brexit Party coalition would get the job done?
>
> The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU
------------
You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
> > > > >
> > > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
> > > > >
> > > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
> > > > >
> > > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
> > > >
> > > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
> > >
> > > Just over 17 million, in 1933.
> >
> > That was not a fair and free election though. (And even with widespread suppression of the opposition parties it's remarkable that the Nazis only got 43% of the vote in 1933.)
> >
> > The two 1932 elections are more relevant, with 37% (July) and 33% (November) voting for Hitler's party. How many of them thought they were delivering the establishment a poke in the eye, I wonder? How many could have predicted the eventual consequences?
>
> Whatever you think about Boris he is not Hitler, nor even would Farage be, maybe Mussolini at worst but not Hitler
Putin is the world's leading fascist today. Beware of any politicians with ties to him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide
And if you overlay the furthest advance of the German Army on the Eastern Front in early 1918, it's not too far removed from the Wehrmacht's furthest advance in 1941-1942.
> > @kle4 said:
> >
> > There was a psychological effect to extending past March, the realisation that we really were not leaving any time soon, even though it had looked likely for some time. To a lesser degree I think the recognition we are indeed leaving through the deal would have a psychological effect as well. As noted above most Tory MPs (including most ERG MPs), and thus perhaps most Tory Members, would believe it was leaving, if suboptimally, and having done that righteous fury might reduce to just disaffection, which is better for the party!
> >
> > But I doubt the situation will arise.
>
> -----------
>
> The problem is that passing the WA is just the beginning. It means nothing will change at first, except we'll be plunged into new negotiations in which the EU will have the upper hand, so it sets the scene for Farage to say the reason we're in a weak position is because politicians betrayed the original vote.
I am sure he will. But his principal complaint that we are not out will be addressed in a manner that at least some currently backing him will accept, and 'this is not a good enough brexit' is a harder sell (though still popular) than 'we have not brexited at all'.
No passing the WA would not resolve the longer term issues, but it achieves a level of progress, legally clear progress, which would be something, and we can get on with arguing about the next phase.
But it is further away than it was 2 months ago. What a waste. Good night all.
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU
> ------------
>
> You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
And, of course, we will be bound by all the rules with no say on them. Finally in something approximating the claims of Leavers, but at their behest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
> Richard Leonard reasonably fluent and passionate on QT, he actually looks better than the current leader of Welsh Labour Mark Drakeford and more presentable.
>
> But he does seem to have mislaid a surname. The uber-thesp Nicholas Craig (played by Nigel Planer) points out that actors, being inherently untrustworthy, choose stagenames that consist of two forenames and no surname (eg "Daniel Craig")
Daniel Craig Charles?
> The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
Will it be a dogfight in Labrador or the another Liberal landslide?
I see Elvis is running in one seat for the Libs.
> The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority
> If I was a Tory and I wanted to stop Brexit I'd vote for Boris. With him as Leader he will never get 320 MPs voting for any Brexit he might cook up. He'll need an election and I don't believe he has a dog's chance of getting a majority-even against Corbyn.
I think Boris certainly could get a majority against Corbyn, I don't think any other frontline Tory could.
If the WA fails a 4th time then the current Commons will likely vote to revoke Art 50 anyway when Macron refuses to extend further in October
> > @HYUFD said:
> >
> > The only reason the Brexit Party is polling over 20% now in some GE polls is we are still in the EU, if we had left the EU with a WA and entered a transition period they would be polling around 10% at most much as they got in 2015. Even some soft Brexiteers are voting Brexit Party at the moment as we are still in the EU despite the Leave vote, only No Dealers are opposed to the WA and any compromise with the EU
> ------------
>
> You're looking back to the past. Whatever people think about the WA now, the question is how they will feel after it has been ratified, and it turns out that nothing is settled.
It will have been settled, we will have left the EU, the transition period is only 2 years anyway regardless of whether or not we have agreed the future relationship by then
> > @AndyJS said:
> > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador:
> >
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
> Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority
>
Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too.
>
> It will have been settled, we will have left the EU, the transition period is only 2 years anyway regardless of whether or not we have agreed the future relationship by then
------
Transition to what? All those questions will still be open.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador:
> > >
> > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
> > Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority
> >
>
> Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too.
Trudeau will almost certainly lose his majority in the autumn, Alberta, British Columbia and the West have overwhelming Conservative leads in the polls but he could still stay PM provided he wins Ontario and the Atlantic provinces and Maritimes given he will still win Quebec regardless.
And not just on Brexit.
Can’t see it happening mind you - a fluffy personality based vanity contest like the last shambles.
Palestinian terror group Hamas THANKS Jeremy Corbyn for his support: Militants ‘salute’ Labour leader online after he sent message to anti-Israel rally last weekend
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7038365/Palestinian-terror-group-Hamas-THANKS-Jeremy-Corbyn-support.html
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > The election night show is now live, in Newfoundland and Labrador:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQoKKjQ-Npg
> > > Some good news for Trudeau, Liberals forecast to get 23 seats, 21 needed for a majority
> > >
> >
> > Still well down though. The Liberals sweep of the Maritimes was a big factor in Trudeau's majority last time. Conservatives need to break it in the Fall. NDP well down too.
>
> Trudeau will almost certainly lose his majority in the autumn, Alberta, British Columbia and the West have overwhelming Conservative leads in the polls but he could still stay PM provided he wins Ontario and the Atlantic provinces and Maritimes given he will still win Quebec regardless.
Yep. Minor parties NDP and BQ are more natural Liberal allies so he may stagger on. How he will regret his broken promises on PR.
> Vince Cable will be preparing to enter 10 Downing Street at this rate.
They have a vacancy for a janitor?
YouGov/The Times Euro poll
BXP 35% (+1)
Lib Dems 16% (+1)
Lab 15% (-1)
Greens 10% (-1)
Tories 9% (-1)
CUK 5% (nc)
UKIP 3% (nc)
Fieldwork notes
YouGov interviewed 7,192 British adults between Sunday and Thursday this week.
The Tories and Labour were each on 25 per cent, 18 per cent chose the Brexit Party, 16 per cent the Lib Dems, 7 per cent the Greens and 2 per cent Change UK and Ukip.
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1129130938540134412?s=20
Pointless Baxtering
Lab 299
Con 251
LD. 22
SNP. 55
BP. 0
> My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
At this rate they'd be closer to getting a pity vote from me. The core of the Tory party on Brexit are just plain awful, but those who sought a deal don't deserve this, and it is weird that those most responsible for not brexiting will get their way in the party as a result of this.
> Crossover time
>
> YouGov/The Times Euro poll
>
> BXP 35% (+1)
>
> Lib Dems 16% (+1)
>
> Lab 15% (-1)
>
> Greens 10% (-1)
>
> Tories 9% (-1)
>
> CUK 5% (nc)
>
> UKIP 3% (nc)
>
> Fieldwork notes
>
> YouGov interviewed 7,192 British adults between Sunday and Thursday this week.
Terrible for the main parties as they get squeezed with Leavers heading to the Brexit Party and Remainers to the LDs who now take the top two spots
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1129130938540134412?s=20
>
> Pointless Baxtering
> Lab 299
> Con 251
> LD. 22
> SNP. 55
> BP. 0
Although that does show Labour could cobble summat together without the SNP given 4 PC and Ms Lucas. Not the smack of full on Venezuela though.
> My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
Top tipping! Although I'd hang on to your boasting about fifth at this rate!
> My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
Labour could follow them.
> YouGov also asked participants about their voting intention if there were a general election. The main parties emerged neck and neck, with the Brexit Party behind in a poll of 1,655 people on Monday and Tuesday.
>
> The Tories and Labour were each on 25 per cent, 18 per cent chose the Brexit Party, 16 per cent the Lib Dems, 7 per cent the Greens and 2 per cent Change UK and Ukip.
Electoral Calculus gives Tories 275, Labour 267, SNP 56, LDs 22, Brexit Party 18.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=25&LAB=25&LIB=16&UKIP=2&Green=7&ChUK=2&Brexit=18&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
It has only rewarded those on the extremes.
Just think we've gone from No Deal Brexit is just Project Fear to No Deal Brexit is the only true Brexit.
> Crossover time - Lib Dems ahead of Labour.
>
> YouGov/The Times Euro poll
>
> BXP 35% (+1)
>
> Lib Dems 16% (+1)
>
> Lab 15% (-1)
>
> Greens 10% (-1)
>
> Tories 9% (-1)
>
> CUK 5% (nc)
>
> UKIP 3% (nc)
>
> Fieldwork notes
>
> YouGov interviewed 7,192 British adults between Sunday and Thursday this week.
CUK + UKIP = Tories (almost)
>
> > Times may have changed - but not for the better. We have become far too parochial. I would happily see the Welsh Assembly disappear.
>
> I believe that is UKIP policy
That is a bit like saying Hitler was a vegetarian and kind to animals.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning I tipped the Tories to poll <10% in the Euros at 12/1 and fifth at 6/1.
>
> At this rate they'd be closer to getting a pity vote from me. The core of the Tory party on Brexit are just plain awful, but those who sought a deal don't deserve this, and it is weird that those most responsible for not brexiting will get their way in the party as a result of this.
It might have been better for the Tories not to contest these elections. Anything is better than going sub-10%. With that level of support, there are going to be a lot of ballot boxes in places like Liverpool and Glasgow with no Tory votes at all.
> Crossover time - Lib Dems ahead of Labour.
>
> YouGov/The Times Euro poll
>
> BXP 35% (+1)
>
> Lib Dems 16% (+1)
>
> Lab 15% (-1)
>
> Greens 10% (-1)
>
> Tories 9% (-1)
>
> CUK 5% (nc)
>
> UKIP 3% (nc)
>
> Fieldwork notes
>
> YouGov interviewed 7,192 British adults between Sunday and Thursday this week.
LOL! Brexit Party is going to pound the political class so hard!