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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say s

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

Like a sketch show parody of a Victorian dinner crossed with Weekend at Bernie’s, the negotiators in the Con-Lab Brexit negotiations have been determined to maintain the pretence that all is still well despite the talks having died some time during the soup course; it’s just that everyone is too polite to say so.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,170
    First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Prime Minister has been a bedblocker since December. If she had stood down then she would have left with a substantial reputation. She has spent six months incinerating it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Yes the talks are dead and have been for awhile. It's rather sad they've been meeting even as their other statements, and those of their MPs, made clear things were going nowhere.

    Depressingly this also points out how people are retreating from the compromise positions. Things are getting more extreme, not less.

    Thought this was apt.

    "Put simply, Labour (although not yet its leadership) will not now allow any Brexit to occur, except by accident. The Tories (although perhaps not yet its leadership) will not allow any possibility of Brexit not occurring, except by accident."

    Though I disagree on one thing. It has not been no deal or no brexit implictly for weeks. It's been implicit for months.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The Prime Minister has been a bedblocker since December. If she had stood down then she would have left with a substantial reputation. She has spent six months incinerating it.

    I gave her a lot of credit up to that point, but she has had no plan since and has not helped the situation at all. I still retain plenty of sympathy, and do not regard most of the other actors in this as having sensible or coherent plans either, but the sympathy was outweighed quite some time ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I’m quite impressed that Big G is allowed on pb on his anniversary night.

    Keeps him from talking about politics in the house perhaps?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,170
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The Prime Minister has been a bedblocker since December. If she had stood down then she would have left with a substantial reputation. She has spent six months incinerating it.

    Arguably Theresa May was done for the moment Dimbers read out that exit poll at 10pm on 8th June 2017 and it was apparent she's lost Cameron's majority.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > I’m quite impressed that Big G is allowed on pb on his anniversary night.
    >
    > Keeps him from talking about politics in the house perhaps?

    I’m on a ban about talking about politics in the house. This doesn’t stop him, of course.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 588
    Could Boris once in office really be trusted not to perform a volte-face on Brexit like De Gaulle over Algeria?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    dodrade said:

    Could Boris once in office really be trusted?

    The answer is No. The rest was verbiage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    edited May 2019
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/snb19692/status/1129101367862321152

    More of the Tory cowards, kowtowing at the first sign of difficulty. Just as with UKIP, where multiple MPs clearly wanted to join UKIP, you have MPs who rather than deliver Brexit would rather to a deal with people who want something that won't get through parliament. That'll save them? Well, maybe it'll help their polling in the short and medium term, but it won't help actually deliver Brexit.

    But then the European Remain Group proved they don't mind that all that much, they'd rather talk about the perfect Brexit than work for it.

    Tories also really need to remember that poor polling is not unexpected for governments in office this long. It's bad, and that they desperately need to split as the party is irreconcilably divided is a major problem, but they get the vapours anytime they fall behind, and they should have been prepared for the possibility that delivering Brexit would be tough and not super popular by the time it happened.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > > I’m quite impressed that Big G is allowed on pb on his anniversary night.
    > >
    > > Keeps him from talking about politics in the house perhaps?
    >
    > I’m on a ban about talking about politics in the house. This doesn’t stop him, of course.

    So am I but sometimes she listens
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @isam said:
    > https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1129098481241657345

    That book is actually very generous and unless some more people stand, Ladbrokes are looking at a loss. By my calculations, the odds shown sum to less than 200 per cent. (There will be two winners, so 200%).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The Prime Minister has been a bedblocker since December. If she had stood down then she would have left with a substantial reputation. She has spent six months incinerating it.

    She could salvage it with a last minute coup de grace.

    But she won't.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > The Prime Minister has been a bedblocker since December. If she had stood down then she would have left with a substantial reputation. She has spent six months incinerating it.

    I don't remember the media coverage or Tory MPs' views on her being materially different in December than now. Her reputation has been set for at least a year now, unless she'd somehow pulled it all off.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @kle4 said:
    > Yes the talks are dead and have been for awhile. It's rather sad they've been meeting even as their other statements, and those of their MPs, made clear things were going nowhere.
    >
    > Depressingly this also points out how people are retreating from the compromise positions. Things are getting more extreme, not less.
    >
    > Thought this was apt.
    >
    > "Put simply, Labour (although not yet its leadership) will not now allow any Brexit to occur, except by accident. The Tories (although perhaps not yet its leadership) will not allow any possibility of Brexit not occurring, except by accident."
    >
    > Though I disagree on one thing. It has not been no deal or no brexit implictly for weeks. It's been implicit for months.

    If I had to guess where all of this is going right now, it'd be something like:

    1. Conservative Party elects a Hard Brexiteer as May's successor
    2. Tory Remainer revolt; loss of majority; General Election fought with Brexit as dominant issue
    3. Labour minority Govt most likely outcome: confidence and supply partners (at least SNP, and possibly also Lib Dems) act in concert with Labour backbenchers to force cancellation of Brexit

    The big question is: would withdrawal of A50 lead to a situation in which the bulk of voters want to put Brexit behind them and move on, or would the argument simply never go away and Ulsterization occur along the Leave/Remain faultline?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @dodrade said:
    > Could Boris once in office really be trusted not to perform a volte-face on Brexit like De Gaulle over Algeria?

    The Boris Backstop will be Best for Britain!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @dodrade said:
    > Could Boris once in office really be trusted not to perform a volte-face on Brexit like De Gaulle over Algeria?

    Boris spent months insisting the WA was a piece of dog dreck, then voted for it because he finally noticed that what he'd been told was true, that it was better than getting nothing. So he is both shameless and dumb, so could perform quite a volte-face.

    Not that u-turning should be discouraged. Sometimes it is necessary and right. His flexibility in itself is not a problem.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    First Tory to defect to the Brexit Party?

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1129079238114652162
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life

    I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack

    Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject

    Best wishes to one and all
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited May 2019

    > @isam said:

    >





    That book is actually very generous and unless some more people stand, Ladbrokes are looking at a loss. By my calculations, the odds shown sum to less than 200 per cent. (There will be two winners, so 200%).
    I guess he fancies the outsiders! Baker is 40/1 so there are more runners


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If David Miliband had been elected in 2010 none of this would have happened. He got the most votes from the members: it was only the crazy system in operation at the time which allowed the mediocre Ed Miliband to be elected leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1129113025242386432

    Sounds like a very silly strategy. They promised and threatened as much as they could with the last vote on the WA and got a lot closer, but some of those Brexiteers who folded immediately regretted it, and ones like JRM and many others are probably encouraged by the Brexit Party into thinking no deal is back on the table, so goodies won't sway them again.

    In fairness goodies for Labour MPs won't work either because if enough of them were truly worried that Brexit might not occur they'd have caved last time too and they didn't, so no way they are getting 30-60.

    But there seems a lot of wasted effort going on in government at the moment as a result of all this pretending various options are on the table.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Recidivist said:
    > First Tory to defect to the Brexit Party?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1129079238114652162

    I hope not for her sake. As its only MP, she would be its leader in the Commons, and the formbook shows Nigel does not like sharing the limelight.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D

    Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > @dodrade said:
    > > Could Boris once in office really be trusted not to perform a volte-face on Brexit like De Gaulle over Algeria?
    >
    > The Boris Backstop will be Best for Britain!

    'The Boris Backstop for Bacchanalian Brilliance' would be more on brand.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    > @GIN1138 said:

    > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D



    Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    What price Wales?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life
    >
    > I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack
    >
    > Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject
    >
    > Best wishes to one and all

    What a wild anniversary night you have planned!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @AndyJS said:
    > If David Miliband had been elected in 2010 none of this would have happened. He got the most votes from the members: it was only the crazy system in operation at the time which allowed the mediocre Ed Miliband to be elected leader.

    You say mediocre but in fairness Ed Miliband did write most of the Conservatives' programme for government. If only they'd listened to him on Brexit!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    >
    > I hope not for her sake. As its only MP, she would be its leader in the Commons, and the formbook shows Nigel does not like sharing the limelight.

    Another candidate for defection?

    https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1128376650201227265
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Congrats to Mr & Mrs @Big_G_NorthWales !
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    >
    > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    Ahem

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life
    >
    > I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack
    >
    > Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject
    >
    > Best wishes to one and all

    Congratulations Big G and Mrs G! I've stopped drinking regular tea in the evenings as it keeps me awake. Honeybush (a distant relative to rooibos, and also from SA, but nicer) is my usual now.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > >
    > > I hope not for her sake. As its only MP, she would be its leader in the Commons, and the formbook shows Nigel does not like sharing the limelight.
    >
    > Another candidate for defection?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1128376650201227265

    Possibly. Depends on what happens if and when the policy platform the Brexit Party is meant to be incubating is revealed.

    If they've any sense then they'll go for a blend of flag-waving populism, some carefully selected bits of social conservatism (especially with respect to criminal justice,) and soft Left economics.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,747
    AndyJS said:

    If David Miliband had been elected in 2010 none of this would have happened. He got the most votes from the members: it was only the crazy system in operation at the time which allowed the mediocre Ed Miliband to be elected leader.

    Europhobia would still have been a cancer on the body politic. It would not have happened in the same way, but as long as the people in power used the EU as an excuse (with good reason, and otherwise) for everything that was going wrong, then eventually we'd end up in the same situation.

    David Miliband would not have been able (or wanted) to have tried to lance he boil of Euroscepticism, and so it would have festered.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Foxy said:
    > He's got Loadsaroubles...
    >
    > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1129088644063662082?s=19

    Is he still? The disavowal has only been about the Brexit party, not about Nigel Farage personally.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,375
    > @DecrepitJohnL said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1129098481241657345
    >
    > That book is actually very generous and unless some more people stand, Ladbrokes are looking at a loss. By my calculations, the odds shown sum to less than 200 per cent. (There will be two winners, so 200%).

    Possible one isn't on the list, though.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @AndyJS said:
    > If David Miliband had been elected in 2010 none of this would have happened. He got the most votes from the members: it was only the crazy system in operation at the time which allowed the mediocre Ed Miliband to be elected leader.

    True , even if DM hadn’t beaten Cameron the Tories would never have got a majority and wouldn’t have been able to call the EU ref. History though is littered with what ifs.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @Foxy said:
    > He's got Loadsaroubles...
    >
    > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1129088644063662082?s=19

    If years of anti-Semitism scandals have barely touched Labour and decades of being pumped full of money by rich businessmen have done the Tories no harm at all, then I doubt that the Farage bandwagon is going to shed its wheels over this.

    Relative to the low reputation of the established parties, the degradation of public trust in British politics and polarization over Europe (amongst other things,) reports such as these are arguably almost an irrelevance.
  • DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1129112589118660610

    As our great Leader here, Mike, says, favourite rarely win. But, come on Boris.
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 2019
    I have a feeling that Labour and Corbyn are going to be the story after the euro elections.

    Wales looks lost, and London is hanging on a number of threads ~ white, inner London middle class defections, turnout among the young and turnout for Europe by BAME voters.

    Labour failing to win London seems possible. Only the NW seems secure for them.
  • What odds May outlasting Corbyn?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    > @thecommissioner said:
    > I have a feeling that Labour and Corbyn are going to be the story after the euro elections.
    >
    > Wales looks lost, and London is hanging on a number of threads ~ white, inner London middle class defections, turnout among the young and turnout for Europe by BAME voters.
    >
    > Labour failing to win London seems possible. Only the NW seems secure for them.
    ----------------------
    The Tories will be so badly hammered, and then into their leadership contest/brexit civil war, that it might take awhile for any woes for Labour to break through the noise.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,689
    I'm not sure who'd be the worst Tory leader but I feel Raab getting it would be most depressing. He appears to be a personality vacuum.

    You can say what you like about most of the rest of the main candidates but there is (mostly) something about each of them that makes them some way noticeable or memorable.

    Raab is like that boring wall of text in your geography textbook; so uninteresting your eyes somehow just slide off it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,010
    edited May 2019
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > Possibly. Depends on what happens if and when the policy platform the Brexit Party is meant to be incubating is revealed.
    >
    > If they've any sense then they'll go for a blend of flag-waving populism, some carefully selected bits of social conservatism (especially with respect to criminal justice,) and soft Left economics.

    At least we know Hoey wouldn't be over fastidious about a potential association.

    https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/743151219628183552
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > He's got Loadsaroubles...
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1129088644063662082?s=19
    >
    > If years of anti-Semitism scandals have barely touched Labour and decades of being pumped full of money by rich businessmen have done the Tories no harm at all, then I doubt that the Farage bandwagon is going to shed its wheels over this.
    >
    > Relative to the low reputation of the established parties, the degradation of public trust in British politics and polarization over Europe (amongst other things,) reports such as these are arguably almost an irrelevance.

    Oh, I agree. Fans of Farage are like Trumpists. They do not care how dodgy he is.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Foxy said:
    > He's got Loadsaroubles...
    >
    > https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1129088644063662082?s=19
    <

    +++++++

    But none of it sticks. Like Farage or loathe him, he is incredibly good at handling journalistic attacks and "smears", he just shrugs them off, and carries on regardless. As I have said before, he is like a poorer yet smarter Trump.

    And contrast the success of his Brexit Party with the CUKS. I mean, FFS, the CUKS couldn't even decide on a fecking logo, then found one that looks like they redacted the real one, to go with their seventeen different names. Hence they are now polling ~2%, whereas Farage's equally new party is polling ~30%.

    The new Brexit Party video on the "working class" is a measure of Farage & Co's cleverness. The dog whistles are so subtle they can be very plausibly denied, yet they are in there, doing their business. Super slick. Better than anything we have seen in UK politics hitherto, I reckon.

    I thought it was the Remainers who were meant to be the clever ones, and the Leavers were meant to be thick, useless, bigoted clowns who got lucky once?

    Turns out that might not be the case.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 588
    > @solarflare said:
    > I'm not sure who'd be the worst Tory leader but I feel Raab getting it would be most depressing. He appears to be a personality vacuum.
    >
    > You can say what you like about most of the rest of the main candidates but there is (mostly) something about each of them that makes them some way noticeable or memorable.
    >
    > Raab is like that boring wall of text in your geography textbook; so uninteresting your eyes somehow just slide off it.

    The Storyville Brexit documentary won't have done his chances any harm though.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    If Boris Johnson becomes the new Toryleader, how many Tory MPs are likely to resign the Whip and join Nick Boles on the Opposition benches? Justine Greening and Dominic Grieve look likely candidates and there are a few others. There is also the possibility of a difficult by election at Brecon & Radnor.All told, this is likely to mean that by September the DUP Confidence & Supply arrangement will no longer be sufficient to provide a majority. A VNOC would have a fair chance of success - very difficult to imagine CHUK MPs wanting to be seen to prop up Boris.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life
    > >
    > > I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack
    > >
    > > Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject
    > >
    > > Best wishes to one and all
    >
    > What a wild anniversary night you have planned!

    We are happy and content and great in each others company. And I have just finshed the Asda order
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited May 2019
    Foxy said:

    > @Black_Rook said:

    > > @Foxy said:

    > > He's got Loadsaroubles...

    > >

    > >



    >

    > If years of anti-Semitism scandals have barely touched Labour and decades of being pumped full of money by rich businessmen have done the Tories no harm at all, then I doubt that the Farage bandwagon is going to shed its wheels over this.

    >

    > Relative to the low reputation of the established parties, the degradation of public trust in British politics and polarization over Europe (amongst other things,) reports such as these are arguably almost an irrelevance.



    Oh, I agree. Fans of Farage are like Trumpists. They do not care how dodgy he is.
    I don’t think Farage has ever said he was just an ordinary man, but that aside...

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/david-lammy-mp-expenses-16306.html

    And that was OUR money, not a private businessman’s
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited May 2019
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > Possibly. Depends on what happens if and when the policy platform the Brexit Party is meant to be incubating is revealed.
    > >
    > > If they've any sense then they'll go for a blend of flag-waving populism, some carefully selected bits of social conservatism (especially with respect to criminal justice,) and soft Left economics.
    >
    > At least we know Hoey wouldn't be over fastidious about a potential association.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/743151219628183552


    <

    ++++


    Note that in that photo Farage is wearing, quite literally, and without irony, a double breasted blazer with grey slacks. The epitome of a cad. Back then he didn't care. He did it to troll, perhaps.

    It's significant that he has now switched to sober, smart, single breasted dark charcoal suits, the classic leader in waiting look. What does that say? - This time he means business, and he reckons he has a shot at the biggest prize of all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 2019
    Did anybody genuinely think the talks would get anywhere?

    May doesn't do flexibility, and even if she did her party won't ultimately let her and Corbyn is equally inflexible, never really wanted to talk (I mean it worse than talking to the devil in his book) and backed up by his party's position that requires impossible demands to be met to even entertain a Brexit deal.

    Not exactly like the Tory / Lib Dem talks for the coalition, where both leaders started from positions that weren't a million miles apart and weren't entrenched in 40 year long unwavering ideological views when it came to policy positions.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    > >
    > > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    >
    > Ahem
    >
    > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800

    My bad.

    I’d heard Welsh Labour were in trouble, but I hadn’t fully appreciated that they had collapsed to Scottish Labour’s depths.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @Tissue_Price said:
    > Congrats to Mr & Mrs @Big_G_NorthWales !

    Thank you
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    > > >
    > > > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    > >
    > > Ahem
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800
    >
    > My bad.
    >
    > I’d heard Welsh Labour were in trouble, but I hadn’t fully appreciated that they had collapsed to Scottish Labour’s depths.<

    ++++++

    Are you THE Stuart Dickson??!!!

    *faints with fanboi excitement*
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 2019
    As for Farage getting funding.

    I really don't think the public give much of a shit about where politicians get funding from, as long as it isn't them. That is why the expense scandal was so bad, all of a sudden it was a realization that you mean I am paying for that moat being cleaned or the Jacuzzi in the second home they don't really need as they could commute like me into London.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @rpjs said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life
    > >
    > > I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack
    > >
    > > Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject
    > >
    > > Best wishes to one and all
    >
    > Congratulations Big G and Mrs G! I've stopped drinking regular tea in the evenings as it keeps me awake. Honeybush (a distant relative to rooibos, and also from SA, but nicer) is my usual now.

    Thank you. We are great tea drinkers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > I just want to say how kind posters have been in complimenting my good lady and me on 55 years of married life
    > > >
    > > > I must now do our on line Asda order and then get cups ot tea and a couple of rich tea biscuits for our bedtime snack
    > > >
    > > > Politics will be chaotic for some time yet and PB is a wonderful forum to debate the subject
    > > >
    > > > Best wishes to one and all
    > >
    > > What a wild anniversary night you have planned!
    >
    > We are happy and content and great in each others company. And I have just finshed the Asda order

    I am appreciative of a hot milky drink myself :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647

    > @Black_Rook said:

    > Possibly. Depends on what happens if and when the policy platform the Brexit Party is meant to be incubating is revealed.

    >

    > If they've any sense then they'll go for a blend of flag-waving populism, some carefully selected bits of social conservatism (especially with respect to criminal justice,) and soft Left economics.



    At least we know Hoey wouldn't be over fastidious about a potential association.



    Be Leave! :)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @isam said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129099367498027008

    Another defector to join Nick Boles?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    > > > >
    > > > > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    > > >
    > > > Ahem
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800
    > >
    > > My bad.
    > >
    > > I’d heard Welsh Labour were in trouble, but I hadn’t fully appreciated that they had collapsed to Scottish Labour’s depths.<
    >
    > ++++++
    >
    > Are you THE Stuart Dickson??!!!
    >
    > *faints with fanboi excitement*

    I wish the wife would show similar enthusiasm when I make an appearance.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > Congrats to Mr & Mrs @Big_G_NorthWales !
    >
    > Thank you <

    +++++

    May I add my congrats. 55 years of marriage is a very special achievement. You are indeed blessed.

    Happiness isn't complicated, it's just difficult. Love and work are the keys, as Freud said. Get those two right - a loving relationship, plus work you enjoy - and all flows therefrom.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Kate Hoey needs to be de selected.

    If Labour MPs want to support Brexit that’s their choice however sucking up to Farage means she’s crossed a red line .

    Aswell as this given she’s from NI and is pushing for no deal she clearly doesn’t give a fig and she should know better how important protecting peace is there .
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @StuartDickson said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    > > >
    > > > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    > >
    > > Ahem
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800
    >
    > My bad.
    >
    > I’d heard Welsh Labour were in trouble, but I hadn’t fully appreciated that they had collapsed to Scottish Labour’s depths.

    Not yet - we shouldn't get all aerated over one poll, especially given that we know how unreliable they are - but FWIW the figures do look awfully like some other surveys we've seen for the country as a whole, in which flight to the polar opposites in the Brexit argument is occurring at the expense of the traditional big two parties.

    The churn is almost certainly a bit more complicated, but on the face of it this looks suspiciously like the Brexit Party has usurped Ukip and stolen 10% off the Tories, whilst the leading Remain parties have stolen 10% from Labour.

    Incidentally, if the Brexit Party does win the largest share of the vote in Wales, then would I be right in thinking that this would represent the first time that Labour has failed to top any nationwide vote in Wales since 1918?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > > Congrats to Mr & Mrs @Big_G_NorthWales !
    > >
    > > Thank you <
    >
    > +++++
    >
    > May I add my congrats. 55 years of marriage is a very special achievement. You are indeed blessed.
    >
    > Happiness isn't complicated, it's just difficult. Love and work are the keys, as Freud said. Get those two right - a loving relationship, plus work you enjoy - and all flows therefrom.

    Thank you and there is a lot of truth in that
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @Black_Rook said:
    >
    > Incidentally, if the Brexit Party does win the largest share of the vote in Wales, then would I be right in thinking that this would represent the first time that Labour has failed to top any nationwide vote in Wales since 1918?

    No, the Tories won in 2009.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_(European_Parliament_constituency)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > > @StuartDickson said:
    > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > > First like the Brexit Party in the EU elections. :D
    > > > >
    > > > > Except for viewers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
    > > >
    > > > Ahem
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800
    > >
    > > My bad.
    > >
    > > I’d heard Welsh Labour were in trouble, but I hadn’t fully appreciated that they had collapsed to Scottish Labour’s depths.
    >
    > Not yet - we shouldn't get all aerated over one poll, especially given that we know how unreliable they are - but FWIW the figures do look awfully like some other surveys we've seen for the country as a whole, in which flight to the polar opposites in the Brexit argument is occurring at the expense of the traditional big two parties.
    >
    > The churn is almost certainly a bit more complicated, but on the face of it this looks suspiciously like the Brexit Party has usurped Ukip and stolen 10% off the Tories, whilst the leading Remain parties have stolen 10% from Labour.
    >
    > Incidentally, if the Brexit Party does win the largest share of the vote in Wales, then would I be right in thinking that this would represent the first time that Labour has failed to top any nationwide vote in Wales since 1918?

    Since 2009.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,930
    Why, is she thinking of joining the Labour party?

    [ducks]

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @williamglenn said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > >
    > > Incidentally, if the Brexit Party does win the largest share of the vote in Wales, then would I be right in thinking that this would represent the first time that Labour has failed to top any nationwide vote in Wales since 1918?
    >
    > No, the Tories won in 2009.
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_(European_Parliament_constituency)

    Ah, yes, I'd clearly forgotten about that one.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    > @MaxPB said:
    > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.

    I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.

    That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.

    Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.

    But I reckon Boris will get it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @MaxPB said:
    > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
    >
    > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
    >
    > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
    >
    > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
    >
    > But I reckon Boris will get it.

    On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662

    > @Foxy said:

    > He's got Loadsaroubles...

    >

    >





    If years of anti-Semitism scandals have barely touched Labour and decades of being pumped full of money by rich businessmen have done the Tories no harm at all, then I doubt that the Farage bandwagon is going to shed its wheels over this.



    Relative to the low reputation of the established parties, the degradation of public trust in British politics and polarization over Europe (amongst other things,) reports such as these are arguably almost an irrelevance.
    It rather depends where Banks’ money comes from. When is the NCA investigation into that likely to be concluded?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,279
    Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...
  • thecommissionerthecommissioner Posts: 165
    edited May 2019
    > @nico67 said:
    > Kate Hoey needs to be de selected.
    >
    > If Labour MPs want to support Brexit that’s their choice however sucking up to Farage means she’s crossed a red line .
    >
    > Aswell as this given she’s from NI and is pushing for no deal she clearly doesn’t give a fig and she should know better how important protecting peace is there .
    >
    >

    If May and Corbyn could find a way of working together and forcing by elections on to the CUK/Independent defectors/deserters , they would probably be able to move events along without a referendum or full blown general election.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,335
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > > @MaxPB said:
    > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
    > >
    > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
    > >
    > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
    > >
    > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
    > >
    > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
    >
    > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.

    A deeply stupid and ignorant comment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @Byronic said:
    > > @MaxPB said:
    > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
    >
    > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
    >
    > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
    >
    > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
    >
    > But I reckon Boris will get it.
    -------------
    How would you vote if it looked like Farage was best placed to stop Corbyn, not Boris?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715
    edited May 2019
    > If May and Corbyn could find a way of working together and forcing by elections on to the CUK/Independent defectors/deserters , they would probably be able to move events along without a referendum or full blown general election.

    ---

    Of all the ChUKs, independents and defectors, none has had the courage of Reckless & Cardwell.

    And Reckless really is one of the lowest lifeforms that ever lived.

    Yet, he still has more credibility with me than the ChUKs and Ratters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146

    > @Byronic said:

    > > @MaxPB said:

    > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.

    >

    > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.

    >

    > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.

    >

    > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.

    >

    > But I reckon Boris will get it.

    -------------

    How would you vote if it looked like Farage was best placed to stop Corbyn, not Boris?

    Brexit party. It's not even a contest. Corbyn would lead to the ruination of the country.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,002
    > @justin124 said:
    > > @Byronic said:
    > > > @MaxPB said:
    > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
    > >
    > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
    > >
    > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
    > >
    > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
    > >
    > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
    >
    > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.

    Just over 17 million, in 1933.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    Ireland out of Eurovision :open_mouth:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,930
    MaxPB said:

    I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.

    Boris has let down every employer he has ever had and every woman who has loved him. Every time in his life he has attempted to take on a position of responsibility, he has gotten bored or frightened and fucked it up in an attempt to get fired. If for political reasons he cannot be fired he will wait, lose patience and resign in a fit of pique. A physical coward when faced with violence he will grin inanely and agree. He will be then forgiven by a class who will forgive their tribe any betrayal, vice or criminality, and who have held power in this country for far, far too long.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > Ireland out of Eurovision :open_mouth:

    Norway is a good e/w
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    > @Byronic said:

    > > @MaxPB said:

    > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.

    >

    > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.

    >

    > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.

    >

    > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.

    >

    > But I reckon Boris will get it.

    -------------

    How would you vote if it looked like Farage was best placed to stop Corbyn, not Boris?

    I reckon Farage would be better placed than Boris, if he were a Conservative MP
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,930

    Ireland out of Eurovision :open_mouth:

    Explain?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    > @MaxPB said:
    >
    > Brexit party. It's not even a contest. Corbyn would lead to the ruination of the country.
    --------

    What if Labour collapsed and it became a choice between Farage and a Lib Dem PM?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    > > > @Byronic said:
    > > > > @MaxPB said:
    > > > > I've decided I'm going to vote for Boris if he makes the final two.
    > > >
    > > > I am a Remainer and I am a Unionist (and Boris is a Leaver and he imperils the union) but I think the threat from Corbyn is so great now, if Bojo is the only Tory who can beat Labour, and unite the Tory party (sort of) then so be it. Boris it is, with a nose peg on.
    > > >
    > > > That said, I'm not a Tory member, and don't have a vote.
    > > >
    > > > Ideally I think the Tories should go for one of the women, Truss, Mordaunt, McVey.
    > > >
    > > > But I reckon Boris will get it.
    > >
    > > On the same basis, many voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932 at both Reichstag Elections.
    >
    > A deeply stupid and ignorant comment.

    It also happens to be true.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    viewcode said:

    Ireland out of Eurovision :open_mouth:

    Explain?
    They didn't qualify from their semi-final tonight.

    Ten nations out of 18 qualified tonight
    Ten nations out of 17 qualified from the other semi on Tuesday
    UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, plus Israel (hosts) automatically qualified.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647

    > @MaxPB said:

    >

    > Brexit party. It's not even a contest. Corbyn would lead to the ruination of the country.

    --------



    What if Labour collapsed and it became a choice between Farage and a Lib Dem PM?

    Not con-Vince-d.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    Cicero said:

    Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...

    Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    >
    > > If May and Corbyn could find a way of working together and forcing by elections on to the CUK/Independent defectors/deserters , they would probably be able to move events along without a referendum or full blown general election.
    >
    > ---
    >
    > Of all the ChUKs, independents and defectors, none has had the courage of Reckless & Cardwell.
    >
    > And Reckless really is one of the lowest lifeforms that ever lived.
    >
    > Yet, he still has more credibility with me than the ChUKs and Ratters.

    Reckless is no worse than Boris.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > Boris as leader of the Tory party would be like Jeffrey Archer as candidate for Mayor of London... As someone who really, really wants to see the Tories given a spanking that would take decades to recover from (if ever), I would love to see the worst foreign minister in 200 years lead the Tories to their biggest defeat in the same time frame...
    >
    > Ahem, Boris was indeed awful, but worst Foreign Sec in 200 years? Really?
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Brown,_Baron_George-Brown
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Beckett

    Loyal to the last. Applauds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    Boris announcing he is going to run is about as predictable as John McDonnell announcing he is going to speak at a protest where there will be banners of Mao and Stalin in abundance.
This discussion has been closed.