Shame Ipsos Mori didn’t have an EU election question .
On the contrary, there’s less chance of the Parliamentary question being ‘contaminated’ by the presence of an EU election question on the same poll. Pros and cons of either doing it or not.
> @dixiedean said: > > @madmacs said: > > In the latest Westminster polls the two "main" parties are getting around 50% of the votes. According to Electoral Calculus they still woud win more than 80% of the seats, and in England & Wales well over 90% of the seats. If this happened at an election would there be an insurmountable cry for a change to PR, or are the two so ingrained in their opposition that nothing would change? I suspect the latter. > > Yep. The time for change was 2005 when a majority was won on 35%. > Recent polling suggests Lab/SNP majority is likely on c 32% combined. Not sure I would be content with that, but I know 2 parties who would. The one in government, and the other, despite everything that has happened, who would sit as comfortably the largest opposition Party, with a decent stack of MPs, fancying their chances next time round.
> @kinabalu said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > I'm not at all happy with that arrow in the BP logo. It's pointing straight at the box where you mark your cross. It is more or less TELLING you to put your cross there, i.e. to vote for the BP. Now OK, most people will not be impacted but there is no doubt that some will. It's probably going to be worth around 5% and that could quite easily swing the election, which in turn could affect the future of the country. If we end up crashing out of the EU without a deal because of a design flaw on the ballot paper that would be utterly egregious. > > > > 5%! > > > > Maybe 1 in 1000 of those decided on who to vote for might be impacted, if they were drunk or otherwise incapacitated > > Maybe 1 in 100 waverers who were not considering Brexit > > Maybe 5% of those where Brexit was a possibility but not a choice > > > > There is no chance of 5% overall. And there are other subliminal advantages on the ballot, i.e. being at the top, what colours you choose for the logo that are probably not in their favour. > > Yes fair enough. I was exaggerating to make the point. Shouldn't be allowed though IMO.
What if a party picks a logo that, upon testing, voters react to more positively than other parties' logos. That could unfairly influence them too, right? And what about the party name?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Rexel56 said: > > A reminder that simply leaving the EU is not, and never was, the end game for the ERG, Farage, Banks etc. and their wealthy sponsors... > > > > https://twitter.com/martin_durkin/status/1128917709146808320 > > Except support for Leaving the EU and the Brexit Party is as much anti globalisation and anti immigration as it is free market Thatcherite
Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
Ooer, the lay at 10.5 of any other not so shrewd. Amazing scenes, single figure price that none of the last 3 parties of government get most seats next time
> @Nigel_Foremain said: > > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @148grss said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490 > > > > > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense. > > > > > > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before. > > > > What people want is to work less and earn the same. > > > > Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position.
I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course.
But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for.
If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
Anyone earning north of £60k could take a 20% pay cut and be ok as long as they were adaptable I reckon, and the extra day off would make their life better, particularly if they had a young family.
Who the fck is Martin bloody Derkin, and why are people forever posting tweets here under the delusion that it must be true if it's on Twitter, and not just true as to the mindset of the tweeter but also of a lot of other people with no discernible link whatever to the tweeter?
> @williamglenn said: > > @isam said: > > The next election could be between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems. > > > > The Euros? > > That too but I meant the General Election.
Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy. > > Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
Bush Snr was closer to Kohl and John Major than Thatcher, who never really saw him as 'one of us' unlike Reagan
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @148grss said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun: > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490 > > > > > > > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense. > > > > > > > > > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before. > > > > > > What people want is to work less and earn the same. > > > > > > > Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position. > > I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course. > > But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for. > > If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less. > > The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
> @williamglenn said: > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy. > > Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
> @justin124 said: > > Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
> @williamglenn said: > > @justin124 said: > > > > Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough. > > How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
Unless the next general election is Boris v Starmer and the Tories go for hard Brexit and Labour for EUref2 or revoke you might be right
> @isam said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less. > > > > The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay? > > Anyone earning north of £60k could take a 20% pay cut and be ok as long as they were adaptable I reckon, and the extra day off would make their life better, particularly if they had a young family. > > Maybe single people would suffer
If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
> Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
> What if a party picks a logo that, upon testing, voters react to more positively than other parties' logos. That could unfairly influence them too, right? And what about the party name?
OK, yes, the 'where do you draw the line?' point. Difficult.
I suppose my answer would be you can draw the line anywhere you like so long as it is not in the shape of an arrow pointing at the tick box.
> @williamglenn said: > > @justin124 said: > > > > Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough. > > How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
In a GE other issues would come to the fore. The public is far from being obsessed with Brexit - rather sick to death of it.
If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense.
Indeed the idea has much merit. Humans might reasonably assess our progress by the amount of leisure time we afford ourselves. From a seven-day week, to a six-day, to a five-day, to a four.
> @isam said: > If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase. > > > > Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal. > > > > The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical. > > Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
Not really. If you lose £100 in pay and your childcare expences go down by £20 then you are still £80 worse off.
> @Cyclefree said: > > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc. > > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere. > > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now. -------
That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
Ooer, the lay at 10.5 of any other not so shrewd. Amazing scenes, single figure price that none of the last 3 parties of government get most seats next time
I laid off my bet on Other a day or so ago, having got Other at 18s.
> @isam said: > If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase. > > > > Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal. > > > > The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical. > > Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
That depends on what you have. If you have a nanny they may not want to take a pay cut just because you do. Good nannies are like gold dust and you need them for holidays as well since no parent ever gets holidays as long as their children. Most nannies are not paid on a day rate but as a salary.
If it's a day nursery and you pay by the day, yes they could be reduced. But if you're committed to a minimum amount regardless of use, no.
If you're at home more, electricity/heating costs go up.
It's not quite as simple as taking a pay cut and having all your other costs cut by the same amount.
> @isam said: > If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase. > > > > Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal. > > > > The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical. > > Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
Not everyone has young kids.
How the hell is business supposed to absorb that kind of increase in costs without losing business for example to foreign competition. The cost of this would be paid in unemployment.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc. > > > > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere. > > > > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now. > ------- > > That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling.
> @nico67 said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481 > > > > I was going to say that anyone now voting Chuk in Wales is committing an act of self-sabotage... but that's not news. The Welsh have form for that. > > 56% for either a soft Brexit or no Brexit .
But the Green-Chuk split won't to any favours to the MEP count for those who oppose (hard) Brexit
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @148grss said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun: > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490 > > > > > > > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense. > > > > > > > > > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before. > > > > > > What people want is to work less and earn the same. > > > > > > > Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position. > > I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course. > > But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for. > > If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less. > > The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
If I was offered a 4 day week for 80% pay, or potentially even a 3 day week for 60% I'd bite my boss's hand off. There's no way I could find a comparable job in my industry which would offer that.
I haven't read up on proposals by Labour (and the Greens, I believe), but I don't see how they could force businesses not to reduce pay. I think you'd need to trial it and see in practice how many people actually ended up dropping to 4 days and how it affected their salary (my suspicion is that it wouldn't really be as simple as dropping 20%). My feeling is that as a policy in isolation it could be a gift to the middle class at the expense of the working class and the rich... but that it might be good as part of a package of policies which are redistributional.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling. ------
I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Nigel_Foremain said: > > > > > > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy. > > > > Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power. > > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc. > > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere. > > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
The fastest global growth is in Asia and Africa, you could argue being a Brexiteer is being globalist rather than parochial if the focus is to expand trade with emerging markets outside Europe
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling. > ------ > > I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
Wales also voted Leave and has a big Brexit Party lead in today's poll so you have to say 'England and Wales' not just England
Except support for Leaving the EU and the Brexit Party is as much anti globalisation and anti immigration as it is free market Thatcherite
Which is kind of the problem. My pet conspiracy theory on this is that Goodwin's third tribe (wealthy social conservatives), having redefined "British" to concepts like the Anglosphere, feel free to mount a takeover bid of the UK and convert it into a highly-educated workforce with fewer working rights and little mobility that will service the world for depressed wages whilst they cream off the profits. To ensure compliance they present as concerned citizens who only wish to prevent malevolent immigration. By the time the population find out they've been deliberately conned, it'll be too late.
I suspect they are trying to arrange a succession that lets TM leave with some dignity. As Sky said just now who else can do any better, not one of her successors has made any attempt to put down their Brexit policy
However, TM needs to go by no later than mid June or preferable announce it before the EU election
> @HYUFD said: > > The fastest global growth is in Asia and Africa, you could argue being a Brexiteer is being globalist rather than parochial if the focus is to expand trade with emerging markets outside Europe --------
You could, but what does that argument really say? It says that the future is happening somewhere else. No wonder people are depressed about the direction we're going in.
> @viewcode said: > A reminder that simply leaving the EU is not, and never was, the end game for the ERG, Farage, Banks etc. and their wealthy sponsors... > > https://twitter.com/martin_durkin/status/1128917709146808320 > > > > > So they'll be getting rid of the porn ban then? > > Pause. > > Didn't think so. > > (Freedom loving, my arse... )
The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy.
Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > I work in an office where if you want to work four days and get 80% pay, you can. > > But I want to work five days and get 100% pay. > > Why should I not have that option?
The power relationship between employer and employee is very one-sided, so any restriction on your freedom to work in x, y, or z way is also having much more effect as a restriction on employers to put you in a situation where you have to do x, y or z or be unemployed. It's the same reason we have, for example, laws against child labour and hazardous work environments, and why we don't have Victorian working conditions.
Arguably if you had strong and universal enough unions, you might be able to correct the power imbalance enough to no longer need legislation tying both parties' hands, but I suspect you wouldn't be in favour of that either.
> @HYUFD said: > > @williamglenn said: > > I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc. > > Wales also voted Leave and has a big Brexit Party lead in today's poll so you have to say 'England and Wales' not just England ------
Ok, "Global England and Wales!", "Believe in England and Wales!", etc.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc. > > > > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere. > > > > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now. > ------- > > That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
I'm not sure I'd go that far though that may well be where we end up.
Britain has to ask itself this: there is a dominant power on the European Continent which is a friendly one. It is likely to be there for some time. What should our relationship with it be?
My feeling is that WW2 - the very reason the EU came into being and the reason why so many Continental countries have an emotional attachment to the idea of the EU in a way which many in Britain do not - is proving a barrier to Britain looking afresh at this question. It is finding it hard to see a dominant European power as anything other than a threat and, therefore, the issue of a relationship as a zero-sum game. They win, we lose. And vice versa.
Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know.
> See my post at 11:18. The Runnymede definition seems broadly OK. The Madood tests are a bit too confining. Also I would use the phrase "anti-Muslim prejudice" rather than "Islamophobia" which is far too broad and (deliberately) confusing what is legitimate with what isn't.
>
> I pretty well agree with that.
The Tories could do a lot worse than getting me in to draft a definition.
The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy. Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
If they ban DIY, I'm hitting the (rather well constructed if somewhat unfinished) barricades. "COME AND GET ME YOU BASTARDS! I HAVE AN ALLEN KEY AND I KNOW HOW TO USE IT!
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling. > ------ > > I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
In many parts of the world the names Britain and England are unfortunately synonymous.
> @welshowl said: > > @isam said: > > If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase. > > > > > > > > Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal. > > > > > > > > The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical. > > > > Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction? > > Not everyone has young kids. > > How the hell is business supposed to absorb that kind of increase in costs without losing business for example to foreign competition. The cost of this would be paid in unemployment.
I'm sure that nice Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell will be sending you a postcard with the answer to your question.
It will probably be based on the lump of labour fallacy even if those words don't make it onto the postcard.
> @Cyclefree said: > > Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know. > -------- I think if England were independent, we'd find ourselves much more allied with the Dutch, whereas Scotland, Ireland and Wales would gravitate together. It would give us a completely different perspective on relations within Europe and we'd stop automatically expecting parity with Germany on our own. Also Europe would no longer be seen as synonymous with "the continent".
> @viewcode said: > The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy. Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too..... > > If they ban DIY, I'm hitting the (rather well constructed if somewhat unfinished) barricades. "COME AND GET ME YOU BASTARDS! I HAVE AN ALLEN KEY AND I KNOW HOW TO USE IT!
Anecdotally I think that is correct. I have spoken to a number of Labour Party members who said they were voting LD and I am aware of several people resigning as LP members in protest at the party's stance on Brexit.
> The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy. Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
>
> If they ban DIY, I'm hitting the (rather well constructed if somewhat unfinished) barricades. "COME AND GET ME YOU BASTARDS! I HAVE AN ALLEN KEY AND I KNOW HOW TO USE IT!
On the Brexit Party logo the only thing that annoys me about it is that I didn't think of it first.
The contrast with Change/TIG, who couldn't even manage to register a logo at all, however hopeless, is stark.
There is a lot to be said for voting not on the basis of manifestos or principles, but simply by whichever organisation looks the most competent. After all who really knows which policy is right or wrong - but we all know that people who know what they are doing are preferable to those who don't.
At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
That's not really true though.
Their campaign is only as smooth running as Tommy Robinson. They can muster a small crowd in a car park, have no real answers to any questions on policy or personnel, and get huge media coverage.
I've got a couple of proxy votes this year. They normally vote Labour, but are on holiday on polling day. They would have voted Labour by post, but asked me to cast their votes on their behalf 'for whatever looks most likely to prevent Brexit at the time'. It's a tougher gig than I was expecting.
Corbyn and co aswell as some of the northern Leave constituency Labour MPs don’t do facts they just like to peddle the same tired old myths .
Labour is now overwhelmingly a Remain party, by 3 to 1 , most Leavers who have changed their mind are Labour Leavers .
A straw poll of Labour friends doesn’t make pleasant reading for Corbyn ,all voting Lib Dem or Green because of the Labour fence sitting on a second vote.
OK, so skimming through the thread I seem to be in a minority of one in objecting to the BP arrow on the Euro ballot paper. I'm not comfortable in such a position - it implies very strongly that I have the wrong perspective - so I am revising my opinion. I still don't like it, it looks manipulative, but perhaps it is not so palpably unfair as to undermine the legitimacy of the election. Happy to leave it there and move on.
> @Scott_P said: > At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front. > > That's not really true though. > > Their campaign is only as smooth running as Tommy Robinson. They can muster a small crowd in a car park, have no real answers to any questions on policy or personnel, and get huge media coverage.
Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
> @williamglenn said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know. > > > -------- > I think if England were independent, we'd find ourselves much more allied with the Dutch, whereas Scotland, Ireland and Wales would gravitate together. It would give us a completely different perspective on relations within Europe and we'd stop automatically expecting parity with Germany on our own. Also Europe would no longer be seen as synonymous with "the continent".
England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world still behind Germany but still ahead of Italy and with a population of 55 million to the current just behind France so little change really to where we are in both Europe and the World as the UK
This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
> @Recidivist said: > Sorry, but Tories 6th in Wales goes by with barely a flicker. > > > > This ought to be sensational. > > > > Strange times indeed. > > I really wish Mrs Thatcher could have lived long enough to see this.
She would have been very happy the Brexit Party was beating Labour in Wales given Farage is a Thatcherite
> @Scott_P said: > Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country > > Here is that "packed out" rally > > twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328 > > > > twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609
I thought there was a recurring theme on twitter about how well attended/enthusiastic rallies were for the Brexit party, and in locations you wouldn't normally expect?
> @HYUFD said: > > England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world still behind Germany but still ahead of Italy and with a population of 55 million to the current just behind France so little change really to where we are in both Europe and the World as the UK -------
> @TOPPING said: > Did SeanT write this? > > https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344 > > > > This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
Bring rich neither guarantees getting married or being in good health though it helps afford more luxuries and a better retirement
> @Recidivist said: > > @Oblitussumme said: > > On the Brexit Party logo the only thing that annoys me about it is that I didn't think of it first. > > > > The contrast with Change/TIG, who couldn't even manage to register a logo at all, however hopeless, is stark. > > There is a lot to be said for voting not on the basis of manifestos or principles, but simply by whichever organisation looks the most competent. After all who really knows which policy is right or wrong - but we all know that people who know what they are doing are preferable to those who don't. > > At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
Most people will have had experience with work colleagues whose work always has to be checked, or will remember when their children were of an age when you couldn't trust them to use paint unattended. These are not people that you can put in charge of a political revolution. That's Change UK.
I can easily believe that the Brexit Party is competent enough to lead a political revolution. I'm pretty certain I won't like where it is heading.
Comments
> Shame Ipsos Mori didn’t have an EU election question .
>
>
Maybe they did but it is being held over till tomorrow's paper
> > @madmacs said:
> > In the latest Westminster polls the two "main" parties are getting around 50% of the votes. According to Electoral Calculus they still woud win more than 80% of the seats, and in England & Wales well over 90% of the seats. If this happened at an election would there be an insurmountable cry for a change to PR, or are the two so ingrained in their opposition that nothing would change? I suspect the latter.
>
> Yep. The time for change was 2005 when a majority was won on 35%.
> Recent polling suggests Lab/SNP majority is likely on c 32% combined. Not sure I would be content with that, but I know 2 parties who would. The one in government, and the other, despite everything that has happened, who would sit as comfortably the largest opposition Party, with a decent stack of MPs, fancying their chances next time round.
On a GB basis Labour polled 36% in 2005.
> The next election could be between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
>
> The Euros?
That too but I meant the General Election.
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128721558183133185?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128721801683451904?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128722450408144897?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128722145746362368?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128722757800185858?s=20
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1128723187317895168?s=20
> > @kinabalu said:
>
> > I'm not at all happy with that arrow in the BP logo. It's pointing straight at the box where you mark your cross. It is more or less TELLING you to put your cross there, i.e. to vote for the BP. Now OK, most people will not be impacted but there is no doubt that some will. It's probably going to be worth around 5% and that could quite easily swing the election, which in turn could affect the future of the country. If we end up crashing out of the EU without a deal because of a design flaw on the ballot paper that would be utterly egregious.
>
>
>
> 5%!
>
>
>
> Maybe 1 in 1000 of those decided on who to vote for might be impacted, if they were drunk or otherwise incapacitated
>
> Maybe 1 in 100 waverers who were not considering Brexit
>
> Maybe 5% of those where Brexit was a possibility but not a choice
>
>
>
> There is no chance of 5% overall. And there are other subliminal advantages on the ballot, i.e. being at the top, what colours you choose for the logo that are probably not in their favour.
>
> Yes fair enough. I was exaggerating to make the point. Shouldn't be allowed though IMO.
What if a party picks a logo that, upon testing, voters react to more positively than other parties' logos. That could unfairly influence them too, right? And what about the party name?
> > @Rexel56 said:
> > A reminder that simply leaving the EU is not, and never was, the end game for the ERG, Farage, Banks etc. and their wealthy sponsors...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/martin_durkin/status/1128917709146808320
>
> Except support for Leaving the EU and the Brexit Party is as much anti globalisation and anti immigration as it is free market Thatcherite
Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
>
> Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
GREEN 2
BREXIT 1
others 0
So little action here, I'm staggered.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @148grss said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490
> > >
> > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense.
> >
> >
> > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before.
> >
> > What people want is to work less and earn the same.
> >
>
> Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position.
I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course.
But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for.
If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
Maybe single people would suffer
> A reminder that simply leaving the EU is not, and never was, the end game for the ERG, Farage, Banks etc. and their wealthy sponsors...
>
> https://twitter.com/martin_durkin/status/1128917709146808320
Who the fck is Martin bloody Derkin, and why are people forever posting tweets here under the delusion that it must be true if it's on Twitter, and not just true as to the mindset of the tweeter but also of a lot of other people with no discernible link whatever to the tweeter?
> > @isam said:
> > The next election could be between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.
> >
> > The Euros?
>
> That too but I meant the General Election.
Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> >
> > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
>
> Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
Bush Snr was closer to Kohl and John Major than Thatcher, who never really saw him as 'one of us' unlike Reagan
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @148grss said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun:
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490
> > > >
> > > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense.
> > >
> > >
> > > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before.
> > >
> > > What people want is to work less and earn the same.
> > >
> >
> > Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position.
>
> I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course.
>
> But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for.
>
> If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
>
> The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
That last sentence if the point.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> >
> > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
>
> Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481
It would be even more striking were it a non-Yougov poll!
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481
I was going to say that anyone now voting Chuk in Wales is committing an act of self-sabotage... but that's not news. The Welsh have form for that.
>
> Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
> > @justin124 said:
> >
> > Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
>
> How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
Unless the next general election is Boris v Starmer and the Tories go for hard Brexit and Labour for EUref2 or revoke you might be right
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481
Brexit Party surge in Wales just as in England
https://twitter.com/pcsojomitchell/status/1128759847279788033?s=21
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481
>
> I was going to say that anyone now voting Chuk in Wales is committing an act of self-sabotage... but that's not news. The Welsh have form for that.
56% for either a soft Brexit or no Brexit .
> > @Stereotomy said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
>
>
>
> The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
>
> Anyone earning north of £60k could take a 20% pay cut and be ok as long as they were adaptable I reckon, and the extra day off would make their life better, particularly if they had a young family.
>
> Maybe single people would suffer
If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
> What if a party picks a logo that, upon testing, voters react to more positively than other parties' logos. That could unfairly influence them too, right? And what about the party name?
OK, yes, the 'where do you draw the line?' point. Difficult.
I suppose my answer would be you can draw the line anywhere you like so long as it is not in the shape of an arrow pointing at the tick box.
> > @justin124 said:
> >
> > Little chance of that. Much of this support for the Brexit Party and the LibDems is froth which will dissipate soon enough.
>
> How can the two main parties recover? If they do a deal, they'll go down. If they don't do a deal, they'll go down. If they go for a referendum, they won't know where to stand. It could be terminal for both of them.
In a GE other issues would come to the fore. The public is far from being obsessed with Brexit - rather sick to death of it.
> If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
>
>
>
> Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
>
>
>
> The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
>
> Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
Not really. If you lose £100 in pay and your childcare expences go down by £20 then you are still £80 worse off.
>
> She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
>
> Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
>
> It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
-------
That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
Green on this market now.
> If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
>
>
>
> Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
>
>
>
> The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
>
> Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
That depends on what you have. If you have a nanny they may not want to take a pay cut just because you do. Good nannies are like gold dust and you need them for holidays as well since no parent ever gets holidays as long as their children. Most nannies are not paid on a day rate but as a salary.
If it's a day nursery and you pay by the day, yes they could be reduced. But if you're committed to a minimum amount regardless of use, no.
If you're at home more, electricity/heating costs go up.
It's not quite as simple as taking a pay cut and having all your other costs cut by the same amount.
>
> In a GE other issues would come to the fore. The public is far from being obsessed with Brexit - rather sick to death of it.
Indeed, but pinning your hopes on that to avoid the structural question at the heart of British politics at the moment is wishful thinking.
But I want to work five days and get 100% pay.
Why should I not have that option?
> If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
>
>
>
> Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
>
>
>
> The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
>
> Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
Not everyone has young kids.
How the hell is business supposed to absorb that kind of increase in costs without losing business for example to foreign competition. The cost of this would be paid in unemployment.
Pause.
Didn't think so.
(Freedom loving, my arse... )
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
> >
> > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
> >
> > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
> -------
>
> That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling.
> https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1128981188176220160?s=20
Frankly if they polled on the popularity of genital warts l’d expect a reasonable showing against our top politicians at the moment.
How long does it take for them to say for the love of God go.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1128985186404884481
> >
> > I was going to say that anyone now voting Chuk in Wales is committing an act of self-sabotage... but that's not news. The Welsh have form for that.
>
> 56% for either a soft Brexit or no Brexit .
But the Green-Chuk split won't to any favours to the MEP count for those who oppose (hard) Brexit
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @148grss said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > In case we have all forgotten as we watch May go down, Labour still also supply regular moments of popcorn fun:
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1128924609984831490
> > > >
> > > > I am the most vociferous lefty in my office, but when I came back from my annual leave over the Easter break, there was unanimous agreement that a 4 day week (as long as it didn't massively decrease pay) was just much better for everyone. Better for child care, better for stress levels, better for just feeling human rather than an automaton. Lots of office bods would like a 4 day week. And it makes sense.
> > >
> > >
> > > There's nothing to stop anyone now working a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one and earning 80% of what they did before.
> > >
> > > What people want is to work less and earn the same.
> > >
> >
> > Er, what? I have a full time job. I can't just march up to my manager and demand to go down to 4 days with my salary exactly pro-rataed down. Most people are in the same position.
>
> I think I am right in saying that if you are a parent you can ask for this. Employers are not obliged to agree, of course.
>
> But my point is that people can, if they can find such a job, do a 4-day week instead of a 5-day one. What Labour seem to be proposing is a 4 day week as the norm but with - I assume - salaries at the same level. That is a pretty large pay increase which will no doubt be very popular. But that will have to be paid for.
>
> If OTOH the proposal is to have a less stressful life fine. But that also means that people will need to learn to live on less.
>
> The key phrase in the post above is "as long as it didn't massively decrease pay". How many people would be unanimously in favour of such a proposal if it did mean a decrease in pay?
If I was offered a 4 day week for 80% pay, or potentially even a 3 day week for 60% I'd bite my boss's hand off. There's no way I could find a comparable job in my industry which would offer that.
I haven't read up on proposals by Labour (and the Greens, I believe), but I don't see how they could force businesses not to reduce pay. I think you'd need to trial it and see in practice how many people actually ended up dropping to 4 days and how it affected their salary (my suspicion is that it wouldn't really be as simple as dropping 20%). My feeling is that as a policy in isolation it could be a gift to the middle class at the expense of the working class and the rich... but that it might be good as part of a package of policies which are redistributional.
>
> Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling.
------
I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > >
> > > Indeed. Thatcher would be spinning in her grave at what these idiots have done to the Conservative Party and her legacy.
> >
> > Thatcher wasn't one-dimensional though, and her views became increasingly paranoid towards the end of her period in office. She was very troubled by the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, and angered the first President Bush by suggesting they would need to use the Soviet Union to balance German power.
>
> She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
>
> Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
>
> It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
The fastest global growth is in Asia and Africa, you could argue being a Brexiteer is being globalist rather than parochial if the focus is to expand trade with emerging markets outside Europe
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling.
> ------
>
> I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
Wales also voted Leave and has a big Brexit Party lead in today's poll so you have to say 'England and Wales' not just England
> https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1128987091478732800
>
> How long does it take for them to say for the love of God go.
I suspect they are trying to arrange a succession that lets TM leave with some dignity. As Sky said just now who else can do any better, not one of her successors has made any attempt to put down their Brexit policy
However, TM needs to go by no later than mid June or preferable announce it before the EU election
>
> The fastest global growth is in Asia and Africa, you could argue being a Brexiteer is being globalist rather than parochial if the focus is to expand trade with emerging markets outside Europe
--------
You could, but what does that argument really say? It says that the future is happening somewhere else. No wonder people are depressed about the direction we're going in.
> A reminder that simply leaving the EU is not, and never was, the end game for the ERG, Farage, Banks etc. and their wealthy sponsors...
>
> https://twitter.com/martin_durkin/status/1128917709146808320
>
>
>
>
> So they'll be getting rid of the porn ban then?
>
> Pause.
>
> Didn't think so.
>
> (Freedom loving, my arse... )
The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy.
Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
... as long as it doesn't massively decrease pay ...
ah
any predictions by how much it might decrease pay by?
> I work in an office where if you want to work four days and get 80% pay, you can.
>
> But I want to work five days and get 100% pay.
>
> Why should I not have that option?
The power relationship between employer and employee is very one-sided, so any restriction on your freedom to work in x, y, or z way is also having much more effect as a restriction on employers to put you in a situation where you have to do x, y or z or be unemployed. It's the same reason we have, for example, laws against child labour and hazardous work environments, and why we don't have Victorian working conditions.
Arguably if you had strong and universal enough unions, you might be able to correct the power imbalance enough to no longer need legislation tying both parties' hands, but I suspect you wouldn't be in favour of that either.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
>
> Wales also voted Leave and has a big Brexit Party lead in today's poll so you have to say 'England and Wales' not just England
------
Ok, "Global England and Wales!", "Believe in England and Wales!", etc.
It sounds even more silly than my version.
The contrast with Change/TIG, who couldn't even manage to register a logo at all, however hopeless, is stark.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > She wasn't the only one who was concerned by German reunification. So was Mitterand. But the reactions of both were very different. France went all out to anchor the reunified Germany into the EU. Britain reverted to its more traditional view of not wanting there to be any one dominant power on the European Continent. Hence the focus on enlargement etc.
> >
> > Britain still has not come to terms with the fact that the EU is the dominant power on the Continent, will likely continue to be dominant and that it has to find a way to live with that which is something other than its traditional historic options: dividing and ruling or sailing away to create an empire elsewhere.
> >
> > It still does not know what to do. Hence the mess we're in now.
> -------
>
> That's very well put. My view at the moment is that for the English, the idea of "Britain" has in itself become a barrier to thinking clearly about our position in Europe and the world, and we should start imagining a future in which Scotland is an independent member of the EU, Ireland is reunified. EU membership might look more compelling, possibly with England and Wales as member states in their own right.
I'm not sure I'd go that far though that may well be where we end up.
Britain has to ask itself this: there is a dominant power on the European Continent which is a friendly one. It is likely to be there for some time. What should our relationship with it be?
My feeling is that WW2 - the very reason the EU came into being and the reason why so many Continental countries have an emotional attachment to the idea of the EU in a way which many in Britain do not - is proving a barrier to Britain looking afresh at this question. It is finding it hard to see a dominant European power as anything other than a threat and, therefore, the issue of a relationship as a zero-sum game. They win, we lose. And vice versa.
Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > Without Scotland and Ireland, for many people, EU membership would be far less rather than far more compelling.
> ------
>
> I realise that's your strongly held view, and superficially it may be what many Brexit-leaning people would expect at the moment, but just think about how jarring all of the Brexiteer rhetoric becomes once you apply it to England: "Global England", "Believe in England", etc.
In many parts of the world the names Britain and England are unfortunately synonymous.
> > @isam said:
> > If you have a young family, you have childcare expenses. A 20% payout can be the difference between having some money at the end of the month and having none. I think single people would find it easier or one half of a couple wanting more time at home etc. It will depend but for lots of people it won't be an option because many bills etc will not be cut by the same amount, indeed may increase.
> >
> >
> >
> > Having made the transition from full time to freelance work, I cherish the extra time I have. My quality of life is vastly improved. But I also have much less money than before so I need to be much more frugal.
> >
> >
> >
> > The proposal sounds very enticing but as ever how and by whom it is going to be paid for is critical.
> >
> > Wouldn’t the childcare expenses be lower to offset the wage reduction?
>
> Not everyone has young kids.
>
> How the hell is business supposed to absorb that kind of increase in costs without losing business for example to foreign competition. The cost of this would be paid in unemployment.
I'm sure that nice Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell will be sending you a postcard with the answer to your question.
It will probably be based on the lump of labour fallacy even if those words don't make it onto the postcard.
>
> Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know.
>
--------
I think if England were independent, we'd find ourselves much more allied with the Dutch, whereas Scotland, Ireland and Wales would gravitate together. It would give us a completely different perspective on relations within Europe and we'd stop automatically expecting parity with Germany on our own. Also Europe would no longer be seen as synonymous with "the continent".
> The porn ban will be one of those things that causes muffled outrage. People will be pissed off - but who is going to march to restore free porn access? They will just blame politicians for stifling their joy. Perhaps these same politicians could destroy their remaining crumbs of support by going for a ban on car-boot sales too.....
>
> If they ban DIY, I'm hitting the (rather well constructed if somewhat unfinished) barricades. "COME AND GET ME YOU BASTARDS! I HAVE AN ALLEN KEY AND I KNOW HOW TO USE IT!
B&Q: Democracy's Last Stand...........
> https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1128993548077023232
Anecdotally I think that is correct. I have spoken to a number of Labour Party members who said they were voting LD and I am aware of several people resigning as LP members in protest at the party's stance on Brexit.
At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1128988218974769153
Being given their cards, as the party is being disbanded.
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Registrations/PP2303
> Nothing wrong with having an arrow on your logo, but we did it first:
> http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Registrations/PP2303
Did the party above you on the ballot paper get an unexpected surge?
Their campaign is only as smooth running as Tommy Robinson. They can muster a small crowd in a car park, have no real answers to any questions on policy or personnel, and get huge media coverage.
> https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1128993548077023232
Corbyn and co aswell as some of the northern Leave constituency Labour MPs don’t do facts they just like to peddle the same tired old myths .
Labour is now overwhelmingly a Remain party, by 3 to 1 , most Leavers who have changed their mind are Labour Leavers .
A straw poll of Labour friends doesn’t make pleasant reading for Corbyn ,all voting Lib Dem or Green because of the Labour fence sitting on a second vote.
> At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
>
> That's not really true though.
>
> Their campaign is only as smooth running as Tommy Robinson. They can muster a small crowd in a car park, have no real answers to any questions on policy or personnel, and get huge media coverage.
Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
This ought to be sensational.
Strange times indeed.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
https://twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609
> > @Cyclefree said:
> >
> > Quite how Britain breaks out of this into some fresh thinking I don't know.
> >
> --------
> I think if England were independent, we'd find ourselves much more allied with the Dutch, whereas Scotland, Ireland and Wales would gravitate together. It would give us a completely different perspective on relations within Europe and we'd stop automatically expecting parity with Germany on our own. Also Europe would no longer be seen as synonymous with "the continent".
England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world still behind Germany but still ahead of Italy and with a population of 55 million to the current just behind France so little change really to where we are in both Europe and the World as the UK
> Sorry, but Tories 6th in Wales goes by with barely a flicker.
>
>
>
> This ought to be sensational.
>
>
>
> Strange times indeed.
>
> I really wish Mrs Thatcher could have lived long enough to see this.
She would have been very happy the Brexit Party was beating Labour in Wales given Farage is a Thatcherite
> Yet lead every European elections poll and are holding packed out rallies across the country
>
> Here is that "packed out" rally
>
> twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1128964539221987328
>
>
>
> twitter.com/jonesarwyn/status/1128952415833796609
I thought there was a recurring theme on twitter about how well attended/enthusiastic rallies were for the Brexit party, and in locations you wouldn't normally expect?
>
> England alone would be the 7th largest economy in the world still behind Germany but still ahead of Italy and with a population of 55 million to the current just behind France so little change really to where we are in both Europe and the World as the UK
-------
Great, I've obviously got you convinced!
> Did SeanT write this?
>
> https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1128999505649721344
>
>
>
> This is a causation correlation issue isn't it? If you are rich you live longer and also you can afford all those things. I don't think it is the trinkets that keep you alive, it is being rich.
Bring rich neither guarantees getting married or being in good health though it helps afford more luxuries and a better retirement
> > @Oblitussumme said:
> > On the Brexit Party logo the only thing that annoys me about it is that I didn't think of it first.
> >
> > The contrast with Change/TIG, who couldn't even manage to register a logo at all, however hopeless, is stark.
>
> There is a lot to be said for voting not on the basis of manifestos or principles, but simply by whichever organisation looks the most competent. After all who really knows which policy is right or wrong - but we all know that people who know what they are doing are preferable to those who don't.
>
> At the moment it has to be said for sheer ability to actually deliver a smooth running campaign the Brexit guys are way out in front.
Most people will have had experience with work colleagues whose work always has to be checked, or will remember when their children were of an age when you couldn't trust them to use paint unattended. These are not people that you can put in charge of a political revolution. That's Change UK.
I can easily believe that the Brexit Party is competent enough to lead a political revolution. I'm pretty certain I won't like where it is heading.