Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too.
The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout.
Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers. > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
> @isam said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312 > > > > > isn't that a really confusing billboard? > > > > Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage. > > It’s meant to be an attack on him
> Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
>
> It’s meant to be an attack on him
It is an attack on him.
I don’t think he comes out of it looking that bad.
May will go out with a whimper if she resigns after the vote in three weeks. If she had gone when it was defeated the first time she would have been held in a decent standing.
So I return from cutting the hedge to find the next vote on the WA is a proxy VONC in May - but with all the other parties getting a vote too. Is that about right?
> @Dadge said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers. > > > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer. > > Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
No government should take us out of the EU on a No Deal basis without the voters' express consent to that - either in a referendum or in a GE. This was not the basis on which the 2017 referendum was won.
I don't trust Tory MPs - even those on the left - to abandon the Tories if they elect some ERG-style leader. If they had any honour or principles they would. I fear they are scared and cowardly and are putting their personal or their party's interests before those of the country.
> @david_herdson said: > So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too. > > The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout. > > Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
Yes, if the WA fails again Macron likely vetoes further extension in October and if a new Tory PM tries to go for No Deal the Commons will likely vote for revoke Article 50 instead making a general election inevitable.
If the Brexit Party win the European elections and Peterborough by election as is likely though I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement for it to pass
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers. > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
It could be worse. My simnel cake turned out really well this year. If cheddar imports from Ireland do fail, well, cheese has a huge carbon footprint and I shouldn't eat so much of it anyway.
It would I suppose be quite amusing to find a Leaver PM replacing Mrs May, going for a No Deal Brexit, refusing to pay the money we owe and then finding that their first few months in office are spent dealing with the EU's legal action against Britain, renewed unrest in Northern Ireland and traffic jams all around our ports plus the consequences of falling out of 700 agreements.
And belatedly realising that they are going to have to sign something very similar to the WA only without any of the good bits for Britain.
And then wondering when the cries of "betrayal" will start.
> @HYUFD said: > > @david_herdson said: > > So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too. > > > > The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout. > > > > Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with. > > Yes, if the WA fails again Macron likely vetoes further extension in October and if a new Tory PM tries to go for No Deal the Commons will likely vote for revoke Article 50 instead making a general election inevitable. > > If the Brexit Party win the European elections and Peterborough by election as is likely though I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement for it to pass
> @Dadge said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers. > > > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer. > > Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
Indeed. A number of Tory MPs have said they would leave the party if Boris becomes PM - I wonder if anyone has been keeping count of how many? Grieve is one, and I think Greening also?
Tory leadership election could turn into a play-off between a No Dealer and a Revoker. Only one way the swivel-eyed membership, complete with gammonite entryists, will jump in that contest.
> @david_herdson said: > So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too. > > The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout. > > Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
Step One of the No Deal fallout could be the government losing its Commons majority. We could No Deal exit from the EU during a general election campaign. That would be fun.
Just curious - when May leaves in the next few weeks (she might yet decide that her WA is going to fail, so departs in days), who do Labour most fear as her successor?
Just curious - when May leaves in the next few weeks (she might yet decide that her WA is going to fail, so departs in days), who do Labour most fear as her successor?
> @MarqueeMark said: > Just curious - when May leaves in the next few weeks (she might yet decide that her WA is going to fail, so departs in days), who do Labour most fear as her successor?
> @GIN1138 said: > Why doesn't Theresa May just trigger a Con leadership election now (but stay on as PM to try and get her WA through in June) > > What am I missing?
Her natural instinct to delay any decision in the hope summat will turn up?
Widening inequalities in pay, health and opportunities in the UK are undermining trust in democracy, says an Institute for Fiscal Studies report. The think tank warns of runaway incomes for high earners but rises in "deaths of despair", such as from addiction and suicide, among the poorest. It warns of risks to "centre-ground" politics from stagnating pay and divides in health and education."
> @anothernick said: > > @Dadge said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers. > > > > > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer. > > > > Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal. > > Indeed. A number of Tory MPs have said they would leave the party if Boris becomes PM - I wonder if anyone has been keeping count of how many? Grieve is one, and I think Greening also?
But say it's a Hunt. You still have the same disastrous policy.
> @AndyJS said: > "Inequality driving 'deaths of despair' > > Widening inequalities in pay, health and opportunities in the UK are undermining trust in democracy, says an Institute for Fiscal Studies report. > The think tank warns of runaway incomes for high earners but rises in "deaths of despair", such as from addiction and suicide, among the poorest. > It warns of risks to "centre-ground" politics from stagnating pay and divides in health and education." > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48229037 > > > "Opioid painkillers: Alarm bells are ringing" > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48297011
Is it possible that the Spartans or spastics or whatever you want to call them have agreed to back May's deal in exchange for her immediate departure? Seems unlikely because everyone is sick to the back teeth of her anyway and she has nothing to offer.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > isn't that a really confusing billboard? > > > > > > > > > > > > Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage. > > > > > > It’s meant to be an attack on him > > > > It is an attack on him. > > I don’t think he comes out of it looking that bad.
It is a tad subtle. But it works two ways. First, if people who see it understand it's an attack on him.
Second, if they actually think it's a Brexit Party advert. Most people on the Left will think twice about voting for him if they think his policy platform includes privatisation of the health service.
In that respect, it's a bit like May putting up posters promoting her dementia tax.
"Set a timetable". Knowing May, that timetable may well be rather more long range than folk are expecting. Would not be surprised if she sees it as being after Brexit, or after the 2022 election. Whichever is sooner.
The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me.
What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving.
Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
It would be rather embarrassing for those putting up the posters, if they’ve not got themselves properly registered with the Electoral Commission and will be declaring all their spending in accordance with the law.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Notme, it's a strange line. > > The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me. > > What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving. > > Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
> @DavidL said: > Is it possible that the Spartans or spastics or whatever you want to call them have agreed to back May's deal in exchange for her immediate departure? Seems unlikely because everyone is sick to the back teeth of her anyway and she has nothing to offer.
Dunno why anyone wants her deal to pass - means losing the DUP.
It would be rather embarrassing for those putting up the posters, if they’ve not got themselves properly registered with the Electoral Commission and will be declaring all their spending in accordance with the law.
It would be a novelty for Leavers to concern themselves with the niceties of electoral law. They've never shown the slightest interest in it before now.
Mr. Rentool, if I offered to double the real wealth of the poorest, but triple it for the wealthiest (increasing inequality), would you accept that, or refuse?
Or, if given the choice between that and halving the real wealth of the poorest but reducing it by two-thirds for the wealthiest (decreasing inequality), which would you prefer?
> @AndyJS said: > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
> @tlg86 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system. > > Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
The vote has to be concentrated rather than spread evenly. That usually helps established parties.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Notme, it's a strange line. > > > > The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me. > > > > What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving. > > > > Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end. > > More equal societies are happier societies.
Is Venezuela happier than Argentina, do you think?
> @Sandpit said: > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312 > > > > It would be rather embarrassing for those putting up the posters, if they’ve not got themselves properly registered with the Electoral Commission and will be declaring all their spending in accordance with the law.
Don't worry, I'm sure the Commission will investigate the matter thoroughly....
> @SandyRentool said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Notme, it's a strange line. > > > > The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me. > > > > What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving. > > > > Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end. > > More equal societies are happier societies.
I have noted many times over the past few months that sterling was rangebound at $1.30-33.
Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned.
Unless of course the first part of the contest finished up with only one candidate standing so it doesn't go to a members ballot again - A scenario nobody can entirely rule out as Theresa May only became leader during the last leadership contest by accident.
No on an say an accident won't happen again and in which case we could have a new PM by July.
> @tlg86 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system. > > Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
Blair won a workable majority at GE2005 with 35.1%
> @TOPPING said: > I have noted many times over the past few months that sterling was rangebound at $1.30-33. > > Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned.
If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
> @AndyJS said: > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
That was the scenario if Remain had won the first time. I don't think it would work now, because a win for Remain would now represent a rejection of Brexit.
If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
It will have to be a soft leaver (a la La May) or a remainer. For the country, that is. For the Party god knows the fuckers might choose Francois in their current mood. But for the country it will have to be a Hunt, Gove, Rudd, or even (because I'm green on him but also he has consistently spoken a lot of sense and at some point you have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he means it), Stewart.
The government really ought to publish the advice they have received on the impact of a No Deal Brexit, in full, before the WAB is presented.
Maybe it is less bad than feared. Or very much worse. Or a bit meh. Who knows? But MPs should know before they vote again.
And contestants for the Tory party leadership should also know. So that we don't get fed a load of bullshit about what something that was never in anyone's manifestos in 2017 or canvassed during the referendum campaign actually means in practice.
It is a tad subtle. But it works two ways. First, if people who see it understand it's an attack on him.
Second, if they actually think it's a Brexit Party advert. Most people on the Left will think twice about voting for him if they think his policy platform includes privatisation of the health service.
In that respect, it's a bit like May putting up posters promoting her dementia tax.
The third, and I think most likely, way is you drive past it & just see his picture looking quite respectable and some words that you won’t have time to read. Anyway, once people have made their mind up to vote for a politician, I think opposition attacks just harden the resolve, especially if part of the schtik is that the establishment are out to get them. We saw it with Corbyn.
> @TOPPING said: > If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ. > > It will have to be a soft leaver (a la La May) or a remainer. For the country, that is. For the Party god knows the fuckers might choose Francois in the current mood. But for the country it will have to be a Hunt, Gove, Rudd, or even (because I'm green on him but also he has consistently spoken a lot of sense and at some point you have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he means it), Stewart.
As if Tory loyalists care about the country. They stopped caring about the rest of us a long time ago. Bastards.
> @isam said: > The third, and I think most likely, way is you drive past it & just see his picture looking quite respectable and some words that you won’t have time to read.
Is there anything that man has touched which has not turned to ashes? Imagine if he were to stand for leader and win, the queues to get out of the country would stretch to Aberdeen, probably.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160 > > The government really ought to publish the advice they have received on the impact of a No Deal Brexit, in full, before the WAB is presented. > > Maybe it is less bad than feared. Or very much worse. Or a bit meh. Who knows? But MPs should know before they vote again. > > And contestants for the Tory party leadership should also know. So that we don't get fed a load of bullshit about what something that was never in anyone's manifestos in 2017 or canvassed during the referendum campaign actually means in practice.
Who would believe the assessments? No one. We were supposed to have a recession immediately after voting leave. Employment is up well over 1m since then. 1m.
A major part of Brexit is, as Gove almost said, we are fed up of experts who seek to give a spurious credibility to their own opinions by skewing the data or building in assumptions which are not warranted. They have been caught out repeatedly and the defence is, well, things changed or the government or the bank reacted to what had happened. Well, yes.
> @isam said: > It is a tad subtle. But it works two ways. First, if people who see it understand it's an attack on him. > > > > Second, if they actually think it's a Brexit Party advert. Most people on the Left will think twice about voting for him if they think his policy platform includes privatisation of the health service. > > > > In that respect, it's a bit like May putting up posters promoting her dementia tax. > > The third, and I think most likely, way is you drive past it & just see his picture looking quite respectable and some words that you won’t have time to read. Anyway, once people have made their mind up to vote for a politician, I think opposition attacks just harden the resolve, especially if part of the schtik is that the establishment are out to get them. We saw it with Corbyn.
It looks like they only have 2 poster sites, the publicity is showing them online.
> @williamglenn said: > > @AndyJS said: > > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system. > > That was the scenario if Remain had won the first time. I don't think it would work now, because a win for Remain would now represent a rejection of Brexit.
No to independence won 55% to 45% in 2014 in Scotland, yet the SNP won 50% in Scotland at GE 2015 and even in GE17 they still won a majority of Scottish seats on just 37% under FPTP.
Remain would have to win at least 70% to 30% to kill off the Brexit Party and avoid the risk of a Farage premiership under FPTP
> @anothernick said: > > @TOPPING said: > > I have noted many times over the past few months that sterling was rangebound at $1.30-33. > > > > Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned. > > If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
And he DOES look like winning per the market. A red hot fav at 3.7 and still shortening.
Oh dear. A truly ridiculous clown in the White House and almost as big a one at Number 10.
> If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
That was the scenario if Remain had won the first time. I don't think it would work now, because a win for Remain would now represent a rejection of Brexit.
In the same way as the Scottish independence referendum going against them killed the SNP?
> @HYUFD said: > > No to independence won 55% to 45% in 2014 in Scotland, yet the SNP won 50% in Scotland at GE 2015 and even in GE17 they still won a majority of Scottish seats on just 37% under FPTP. > > Remain would have to win at least 70% to 30% to kill off the Brexit Party and avoid the risk of a Farage premiership under FPTP
It's also a question of the direction of travel. If Brexit is rejected after three or more years of trying to do Brexit, it's very different to Brexit narrowly losing and never being tested against reality.
Tory leadership election could turn into a play-off between a No Dealer and a Revoker. Only one way the swivel-eyed membership, complete with gammonite entryists, will jump in that contest.
No, I expect it will end in a play-off between a No Dealer and a relatively sane Leaver. That is because in the penultimate round the moderates amongst MPs will swing behind whoever looks best placed to beat the No Dealer, even if in previous rounds they have supported a Remainer.
> @TOPPING said: > If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ. > > It will have to be a soft leaver (a la La May) or a remainer. For the country, that is. For the Party god knows the fuckers might choose Francois in their current mood. But for the country it will have to be a Hunt, Gove, Rudd, or even (because I'm green on him but also he has consistently spoken a lot of sense and at some point you have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he means it), Stewart.
The Tories have been putting party before country for the past 20 years at least, what makes you think things will be different now?
Comments
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
> isn't that a really confusing billboard?
Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout.
Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1129022843436580864
>
> So, to get me out most quickly, it's vote against the WA. Great tactics!
>
Yeah, Brady has made a No Deal exit more likely.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
>
> It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
>
> > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
>
>
>
> > isn't that a really confusing billboard?
>
>
>
> Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
>
> It’s meant to be an attack on him
It is an attack on him.
Boris screwed his mistresses.
Now Boris wants to screw the country.
Let's stop him.
> Boris screwed his wife.
> Boris screwed his mistresses.
> Now Boris wants to screw the country.
>
> Let's stop him.
If that's the best you've got, then he's our PM.....
Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio.......
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
> >
> > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
>
> Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
No government should take us out of the EU on a No Deal basis without the voters' express consent to that - either in a referendum or in a GE. This was not the basis on which the 2017 referendum was won.
I don't trust Tory MPs - even those on the left - to abandon the Tories if they elect some ERG-style leader. If they had any honour or principles they would. I fear they are scared and cowardly and are putting their personal or their party's interests before those of the country.
> https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
Most people won't stop and think about what that's actually saying... So it's just giving free advertising Farage and the Brexit Party...
REMAIN did exactly the same thing during the referendum campaign with the £350m claim.
Three years on they've leaned absolutely nothing...
> So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too.
>
> The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout.
>
> Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
Yes, if the WA fails again Macron likely vetoes further extension in October and if a new Tory PM tries to go for No Deal the Commons will likely vote for revoke Article 50 instead making a general election inevitable.
If the Brexit Party win the European elections and Peterborough by election as is likely though I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement for it to pass
I mean it is not like the EU said 'please don't waste this time' or anything is it.
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1129028806956724224
Hmm. Following the Second Reading - but what if the Second Reading doesn't pass?
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
>
> It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
It could be worse. My simnel cake turned out really well this year. If cheddar imports from Ireland do fail, well, cheese has a huge carbon footprint and I shouldn't eat so much of it anyway.
And belatedly realising that they are going to have to sign something very similar to the WA only without any of the good bits for Britain.
And then wondering when the cries of "betrayal" will start.
Perhaps "amusing" isn't quite the word.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1129028806956724224
>
> Hmm. Following the Second Reading - but what if the Second Reading doesn't pass?
Tough. Brady has booked her removals van......
> https://twitter.com/harpercollinsuk/status/1129008809454784515?s=21
Isn't that just before conference season?
Revenge being eaten cold?
What am I missing?
> > @david_herdson said:
> > So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too.
> >
> > The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout.
> >
> > Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
>
> Yes, if the WA fails again Macron likely vetoes further extension in October and if a new Tory PM tries to go for No Deal the Commons will likely vote for revoke Article 50 instead making a general election inevitable.
>
> If the Brexit Party win the European elections and Peterborough by election as is likely though I think enough Labour MPs from Leave seats could vote for the Withdrawal Agreement for it to pass
Who needs Game of Thrones, eh?
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
> >
> > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
>
> Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
Indeed. A number of Tory MPs have said they would leave the party if Boris becomes PM - I wonder if anyone has been keeping count of how many? Grieve is one, and I think Greening also?
> So, the net result of today is that May will lose her Brexit Bill. She almost certainly would have lost it anyway but this just ensures that previous Con rebels won't come on board and that Labour is almost certain to vote against too.
>
> The new PM, probably taking office in mid-September, will then have 6 weeks to prepare for the likely No Deal fallout.
>
> Could parliament stop a No Deal again? Perhaps, but it'd need better legislation and it'd need the EU to play ball, which it might not if the new PM wasn't interested in the previous WA and was demanding a different one that they couldn't live with.
Step One of the No Deal fallout could be the government losing its Commons majority. We could No Deal exit from the EU during a general election campaign. That would be fun.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129030186886942721?s=20
She would have blown more than her nose if that's what it took to cling on for a few more weeks...
> Just curious - when May leaves in the next few weeks (she might yet decide that her WA is going to fail, so departs in days), who do Labour most fear as her successor?
Rory Stewart I suspect but Boris polls best
>
> Who needs Game of Thrones, eh?
Geeks who like to w@nk?
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129030186886942721?s=20
Shame the 1922 didn't force this outcome on 9th June 2017 - We might not have wasted two years of our lives going nowhere...
> Why doesn't Theresa May just trigger a Con leadership election now (but stay on as PM to try and get her WA through in June)
>
> What am I missing?
Her natural instinct to delay any decision in the hope summat will turn up?
> Damn. If Theresa had only clung on until October I'd be up. Still maybe she will...
Only way May stays until October is if the EU moves on the backstop.
So no, she's gone.
Widening inequalities in pay, health and opportunities in the UK are undermining trust in democracy, says an Institute for Fiscal Studies report.
The think tank warns of runaway incomes for high earners but rises in "deaths of despair", such as from addiction and suicide, among the poorest.
It warns of risks to "centre-ground" politics from stagnating pay and divides in health and education."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48229037
"Opioid painkillers: Alarm bells are ringing"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48297011
> > @Dadge said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > > > Good afternoon, my fellow Groundhog Day viewers.
> > >
> > > It's all a bit gloomy isn't it. The Brexit party will do well next week, the WA will be voted down again, May will resign, some Leave Muppet will become PM and will take us out of the EU with no agreement and no plan other than to sing "Who do you think you are kidding Mr Juncker" loudly across the Channel and in just over a month's time the nights will start getting longer.
> >
> > Given what some on the left have the party have said previously, isn't there a probability that if eg. Boris becomes leader, a few more Tories will transfer to Heidi Allen's lot? Then Boris is likely to lose a VoNC and we have an election. This scenario seems just as likely as him leading us to No Deal.
>
> Indeed. A number of Tory MPs have said they would leave the party if Boris becomes PM - I wonder if anyone has been keeping count of how many? Grieve is one, and I think Greening also?
But say it's a Hunt. You still have the same disastrous policy.
> "Inequality driving 'deaths of despair'
>
> Widening inequalities in pay, health and opportunities in the UK are undermining trust in democracy, says an Institute for Fiscal Studies report.
> The think tank warns of runaway incomes for high earners but rises in "deaths of despair", such as from addiction and suicide, among the poorest.
> It warns of risks to "centre-ground" politics from stagnating pay and divides in health and education."
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48229037
>
>
> "Opioid painkillers: Alarm bells are ringing"
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-48297011
Except inequality is lowest for thirty years...
> Good afternoon. Has there even been a Westminster poll before with the leading party as low as 27%?
A few days ago Yougov had both parties on 24%.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129030186886942721?s=20
>
> She would have blown more than her nose if that's what it took to cling on for a few more weeks...
Please......
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129030186886942721?s=20
>
> Shame the 1922 didn't force this outcome on 9th June 2017 - We might not have wasted two years of our lives going nowhere...
Yup. But that's what the majority of Tory MPs hating Boris gets you....
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Scott_P said:
>
> >
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > > isn't that a really confusing billboard?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Might be intentional, to get more media coverage. Billboards tend only to go up in a few locations these days, and rely on mainstream and social media for coverage.
>
> >
>
> > It’s meant to be an attack on him
>
>
>
> It is an attack on him.
>
> I don’t think he comes out of it looking that bad.
It is a tad subtle. But it works two ways. First, if people who see it understand it's an attack on him.
Second, if they actually think it's a Brexit Party advert. Most people on the Left will think twice about voting for him if they think his policy platform includes privatisation of the health service.
In that respect, it's a bit like May putting up posters promoting her dementia tax.
Would not be surprised if she sees it as being after Brexit, or after the 2022 election.
Whichever is sooner.
The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me.
What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving.
Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
If I were her I'd be tempted to send the letter in, resign with immediate effect then bugger off for a long holiday. A very long one.
Leave it to my successor to decide whether they want to reinvoke it and if so how they are going to negotiate or not with the EU.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1129027231806840832
> Mr. Notme, it's a strange line.
>
> The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me.
>
> What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving.
>
> Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
More equal societies are happier societies.
> Is it possible that the Spartans or spastics or whatever you want to call them have agreed to back May's deal in exchange for her immediate departure? Seems unlikely because everyone is sick to the back teeth of her anyway and she has nothing to offer.
Dunno why anyone wants her deal to pass - means losing the DUP.
Or, if given the choice between that and halving the real wealth of the poorest but reducing it by two-thirds for the wealthiest (decreasing inequality), which would you prefer?
> If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
>
> Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
The vote has to be concentrated rather than spread evenly. That usually helps established parties.
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Notme, it's a strange line.
> >
> > The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me.
> >
> > What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving.
> >
> > Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
>
> More equal societies are happier societies.
Is Venezuela happier than Argentina, do you think?
> Except inequality is lowest for thirty years...
By what measure? Gini is somewhat flawed.
> https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1128946811400589312
>
>
>
> It would be rather embarrassing for those putting up the posters, if they’ve not got themselves properly registered with the Electoral Commission and will be declaring all their spending in accordance with the law.
Don't worry, I'm sure the Commission will investigate the matter thoroughly....
titters
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Notme, it's a strange line.
> >
> > The idea that people would be happier if they were poorer, but those wealthier lost even more, seems utterly crackers to me.
> >
> > What's important is helping the poorest to achieve more so they have not only sufficient for a reasonable life but extra for disposable income and saving.
> >
> > Shafting the rich and the middle class does nothing to help the poor. Hacking down those who pay most in taxation only deprives those at the lower end.
>
> More equal societies are happier societies.
Not necessarily.
Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned.
It can't be a hint that Hunt is in with a chance?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/harpercollinsuk/status/1129008809454784515?s=21
>
> Isn't that just before conference season?
>
> Revenge being eaten cold?
... and not long before Brexit Day Mk2
> The betting value is now with "No Brexit before 2022"
>
> https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1129027231806840832
Unless of course the first part of the contest finished up with only one candidate standing so it doesn't go to a members ballot again - A scenario nobody can entirely rule out as Theresa May only became leader during the last leadership contest by accident.
No on an say an accident won't happen again and in which case we could have a new PM by July.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
>
> Someone could win a majority with a lot less than 45% of the popular vote.
Blair won a workable majority at GE2005 with 35.1%
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160
Sounds like bullshit to me.
> I have noted many times over the past few months that sterling was rangebound at $1.30-33.
>
> Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned.
If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1129036700666273792
>
> It can't be a hint that Hunt is in with a chance?
Only until it gets to the membership
> If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
That was the scenario if Remain had won the first time. I don't think it would work now, because a win for Remain would now represent a rejection of Brexit.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/harpercollinsuk/status/1129008809454784515?s=21
> >
> > Isn't that just before conference season?
> >
> > Revenge being eaten cold?
>
> ... and not long before Brexit Day Mk2
I think "Theresa - my part in her rise and fall" would be a catchier title.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160
Steel doesn't weep.....
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160
The government really ought to publish the advice they have received on the impact of a No Deal Brexit, in full, before the WAB is presented.
Maybe it is less bad than feared. Or very much worse. Or a bit meh. Who knows? But MPs should know before they vote again.
And contestants for the Tory party leadership should also know. So that we don't get fed a load of bullshit about what something that was never in anyone's manifestos in 2017 or canvassed during the referendum campaign actually means in practice.
> If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
>
> It will have to be a soft leaver (a la La May) or a remainer. For the country, that is. For the Party god knows the fuckers might choose Francois in the current mood. But for the country it will have to be a Hunt, Gove, Rudd, or even (because I'm green on him but also he has consistently spoken a lot of sense and at some point you have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he means it), Stewart.
As if Tory loyalists care about the country. They stopped caring about the rest of us a long time ago. Bastards.
> The third, and I think most likely, way is you drive past it & just see his picture looking quite respectable and some words that you won’t have time to read.
Reaching a bit there, isam.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160
>
> Steel doesn't weep.....
Maybe that's why she won't leave.
"If it could weep, it could arise and go" (Elizabeth Barrett Browning).
> Probation will be renationalised after disastrous Grayling reforms https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/16/part-privatisation-probation-sevices-to-be-reversed-offender-management-nationalised-chris-grayling
Is there anything that man has touched which has not turned to ashes? Imagine if he were to stand for leader and win, the queues to get out of the country would stretch to Aberdeen, probably.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1129037573974876160
>
> The government really ought to publish the advice they have received on the impact of a No Deal Brexit, in full, before the WAB is presented.
>
> Maybe it is less bad than feared. Or very much worse. Or a bit meh. Who knows? But MPs should know before they vote again.
>
> And contestants for the Tory party leadership should also know. So that we don't get fed a load of bullshit about what something that was never in anyone's manifestos in 2017 or canvassed during the referendum campaign actually means in practice.
Who would believe the assessments? No one. We were supposed to have a recession immediately after voting leave. Employment is up well over 1m since then. 1m.
A major part of Brexit is, as Gove almost said, we are fed up of experts who seek to give a spurious credibility to their own opinions by skewing the data or building in assumptions which are not warranted. They have been caught out repeatedly and the defence is, well, things changed or the government or the bank reacted to what had happened. Well, yes.
> It is a tad subtle. But it works two ways. First, if people who see it understand it's an attack on him.
>
>
>
> Second, if they actually think it's a Brexit Party advert. Most people on the Left will think twice about voting for him if they think his policy platform includes privatisation of the health service.
>
>
>
> In that respect, it's a bit like May putting up posters promoting her dementia tax.
>
> The third, and I think most likely, way is you drive past it & just see his picture looking quite respectable and some words that you won’t have time to read. Anyway, once people have made their mind up to vote for a politician, I think opposition attacks just harden the resolve, especially if part of the schtik is that the establishment are out to get them. We saw it with Corbyn.
It looks like they only have 2 poster sites, the publicity is showing them online.
Surprised no Brexit contact. Or maybe they know we are not their target market? Removes tin foil.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > If we have a second referendum, and Remain wins by 55/45, there could then be a general election at which Farage becomes PM by winning 45% because as we know that's enough to win a majority under FPTP in a multi-party system.
>
> That was the scenario if Remain had won the first time. I don't think it would work now, because a win for Remain would now represent a rejection of Brexit.
No to independence won 55% to 45% in 2014 in Scotland, yet the SNP won 50% in Scotland at GE 2015 and even in GE17 they still won a majority of Scottish seats on just 37% under FPTP.
Remain would have to win at least 70% to 30% to kill off the Brexit Party and avoid the risk of a Farage premiership under FPTP
> > @TOPPING said:
> > I have noted many times over the past few months that sterling was rangebound at $1.30-33.
> >
> > Not any more. It's broken out now and heading towards $1.27. I suppose this can be counted as a victory and sign of the UK's international standing as far as Brexiters are concerned.
>
> If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
And he DOES look like winning per the market. A red hot fav at 3.7 and still shortening.
Oh dear. A truly ridiculous clown in the White House and almost as big a one at Number 10.
I would laugh if it were even remotely funny.
> > @logical_song said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/harpercollinsuk/status/1129008809454784515?s=21
> > >
> > > Isn't that just before conference season?
> > >
> > > Revenge being eaten cold?
> >
> > ... and not long before Brexit Day Mk2
>
> I think "Theresa - my part in her rise and fall" would be a catchier title.
"Whoops!" - would have been more precise.
>
> No to independence won 55% to 45% in 2014 in Scotland, yet the SNP won 50% in Scotland at GE 2015 and even in GE17 they still won a majority of Scottish seats on just 37% under FPTP.
>
> Remain would have to win at least 70% to 30% to kill off the Brexit Party and avoid the risk of a Farage premiership under FPTP
It's also a question of the direction of travel. If Brexit is rejected after three or more years of trying to do Brexit, it's very different to Brexit narrowly losing and never being tested against reality.
> If BoZo looks like winning it will be down below $1.20 PDQ.
>
> It will have to be a soft leaver (a la La May) or a remainer. For the country, that is. For the Party god knows the fuckers might choose Francois in their current mood. But for the country it will have to be a Hunt, Gove, Rudd, or even (because I'm green on him but also he has consistently spoken a lot of sense and at some point you have to give him the benefit of the doubt that he means it), Stewart.
The Tories have been putting party before country for the past 20 years at least, what makes you think things will be different now?