Or Labour’s masterplan is to allow the Bill through its Second Reading, propelling another wedge of its Remain supporters to the LibDems and Greens, and then vote down the final Bill to upset its leavers?
> @bondegezou said: > > @Charles said: > > You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date. > > > > Viability - I think you may have interpreted my post as relating to fertilisation or implantation? - is when a foetus can survive (with medical support) independent of the mother. If that is the case why should it not have rights? > > I think you may have misread my entire post! > > It should not have rights if it is not a person. If one could take a blastocyst and support its survival independent of the mother, as is conceivably possible in the future, you would still be starting with a blastocyst. It would be nonsense to give rights to a microscopic ball of cells. Ergo, viability (with medical support) is the wrong test. > > > (I’m not a doctor, but I think it’s around 20/21 weeks on current science vs 24 weeks as the legal cut off) > > This is all a massive red herring. Almost no abortions happen that late. Only 1% of abortions happen beyond 21 weeks and those are in very particular circumstances. > > As for viability, no, it's not at 20/21 weeks. With current medical science, between 0-3% of births at 22 weeks survive. The shortest known gestation at birth to survive is 21 weeks and 5 days. The standard definition of viability is a 50% survival rate, and that's 24 weeks, which is the GB legal cut-off.
That's an illogical definition though. Clearly, the child that survived after less than 22 weeks' gestation *was* viable, if only just and probably with significant medical issues.
But to simply accept an assertion that a blastocyst isn't a person because 'it's a nonsense' is weak. It's not a nonsense to the Catholic church. Indeed, without forming arbitrary or grey lines, it's a very logical position.
Personally, I'm quite happy with grey lines and case-by-case assessments made against criteria but that's a practical solution that doesn't go near the philosophical question of when a person becomes a person (though having seen 12-week scans, I'd say that there's enough of the essence of a human there at that point to give them that status).
> You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
>
As I understand it, UK law does not assign rights to a foetus. Rights are acquired at birth.
It makes abortion illegal (in most circumstances) beyond a certain time limit, not because the foetus has acquired the right to life at this date, but (I think) because there is a general sense that it offends people's sensibilities to have abortions at a later date. Sometimes an arbitrary fudge is the best compromise. We could do with rediscovering this with respect to Brexit.
I don't think that tying abortion to viability as you have framed it is at all helpful. If technology develops to the extreme of supporting a fertilised egg to maturity then it risks criminalising women for miscarriages, as we can see with the law recently passed in Georgia.
Section 58 of the Offences against the Person Act 1861 (unrepealed but modified by the Abortion Act 1967) ascribes very significant rights to a foetus. The effect of the two enactments is to protect its rights to existence except only in particular prescribed circumstances and evidenced in a particular way. Many of course think this is more honoured in the breach than the observance....but there is more to law than statutes. Our customs and values rightly abhor all violence against women. Don't most people think that such acts are even worse when the attacker knows the victim is pregnant, and do we not take it that in fact (regardless of law) there are two victims in such a case, not one?
> @TrèsDifficile said: > So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is? > > You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
Er, Tory MP, and wannabe Tory MP, and both public school. You don't get much more bloody Establishment than that. I personally don't have a problem with the "Establishment", or independent schools, but claiming any of these pillocks are anti-Establishment is laughable in the extreme, or as Mr. Rees-Mogg might say, "in extremis".
> @TOPPING said: > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate. > > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve? > > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
Wow things have come to a pretty pass.
Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
> @TrèsDifficile said: > So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is? > > You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
I don't think that's either necessary or sufficient.
The Establishment is more a concept than anything (one which may or may not be valid but that's a different point). To that end, a person's wealth, position, office or history matter less than their attitudes, behaviour and intentions.
> @williamglenn said: > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate. > > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve? > > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it. > > The same reason Alanbrooke supported Brexit in the first place. He wants to punish mainstream politicians.
> I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
Wow things have come to a pretty pass.
Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
Some choice.
But you bitched like hell when there was a sensible one-nation right-of-centre party, and IIRC you didn't vote for it.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @isam said: > > > So patronising it could have come from the group people used to call the TIGgers > > > > > > https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/1128197038066348034 > > > > > > Trouble is, he's not wrong. Let's hope Farage's current turn in the spotlight is his last hurrah. > > He's wrong on the dates, though. Educating 'exposing the lies'> @TOPPING said: > > > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate. > > > > > > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve? > > > > > > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it. > > > > Wow things have come to a pretty pass. > > > > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses. > > > > Some choice. > > But you bitched like hell when there was a sensible one-nation right-of-centre party, and IIRC you didn't vote for it.
When was that ? If youre in comedy mode and want to say Cameron and Osborne youll brighten my day up.
CVN-72 (Abraham Lincoln) was scheduled to transfer from the Atlantic fleet to the Pacific going the long way round. A CVN can transit the Suez despite not being strictly SUEZMAX compliant (no locks on the Suez) but not the Panama. A Spanish frigate was joining the CSG for this deployment but the Lincoln was retasked to the gulf leaving the Stennis in the Med. This was completely contrary to what had been agreed with Spanish navy so they wisely pulled out.
The Lincoln can't stay on station in the gulf indefinitely (we did 72 days on the Vinson) and the Spanish may rejoin when the CSG moves on to the Indian Ocean.
Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
Plenty of folks did so long ago - it's just that his apologists have thrown in the towel. Possibly as the chance of legal liability might now outweigh the commercial rationale ?
Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
Some choice.
I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @TOPPING said: > > > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate. > > > > > > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve? > > > > > > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it. > > > > Wow things have come to a pretty pass. > > > > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses. > > > > Some choice. > > But you bitched like hell when there was a sensible one-nation right-of-centre party, and IIRC you didn't vote for it.
History will have many words to describe Cameron's leadership but "sensible" is unlikely to be one of them.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > @williamglenn said: > > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate. > > > > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve? > > > > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it. > > > > The same reason Alanbrooke supported Brexit in the first place. He wants to punish mainstream politicians. > > Anything wrong with that ? __________________________________
One could punish 'mainstream politicians' by voting Green and with less collateral damage to the reputation of politics, which is actually rather important to a country.
They don't have a dubious leader. Unlike Germany, they've never been in government here so can't be blamed for the mess - although in Germany the Greens are doing rather well; climate change is at last worrying voters.
A Monster Raving Loony vote would do less harm than an X for a charismatic right-wing charlatan who refuses to answer media questions (cf Trump).
> @bondegezou said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > Broadly agree. We're doing a bit in Surrey Labour, but the sheer size of the constituencies is a deterrent, quite apart from anything else - the feeling that if you knocked on another 100 doors it would affect the result is hard to summon up. Which is of course a problem of PR, which to be meaningful needs large constituencies to even things out. > > IIRC, the allocation of the final MEP in South East England last time round was decided by 17 votes. 17 votes less and there would have been one more UKIP and one less LibDem MEP. > > So, go knock on those doors! (But not for Labour and their complete lack of a policy on Brexit.)
> @Alanbrooke said: > > Anything wrong with that ? > ------
If you vote for disruption you need to be prepared for ending up with an end result you didn't intend. Personally I think you'll end up with neither Brexit nor a one-nation Tory party.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @isam said: > > > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart > > > > > > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero > > > > MPs don't imprison people, Sam. > > They pass the laws that do.
> @TOPPING said: > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses. > > Some choice. > > I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
that's simply the mirror image of my dilemna, I dont like Farage but the Tories are showing all the survival instincts of a lemming in an Aston Martin Vantage heading for a cliff
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > Anything wrong with that ? > > > ------ > > If you vote for disruption you need to be prepared for ending up with an end result you didn't intend. Personally I think you'll end up with neither Brexit nor a one-nation Tory party.
if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition
Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand
OK Seeing as I'm under 40 looks like a long term buying opp...
Right now I feel as if there should be 250-equity upside as and when (May's tepid or Corbyn's customs unicorn) brexit finally happens or is cancelled ? Obviously a no deal scenario could be suboptimal !
> @NickPalmer said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @isam said: > > > > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart > > > > > > > > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero > > > > > > MPs don't imprison people, Sam. > > > > They pass the laws that do. > > It's just Tom clickbaiting. Labour won't abstain. >
No. Abstaining on the defining issue of the day would look utterly ridiculous, and anyway there would be mayhem in the party if it was seen to be helping enable a Tory Brexit (or any kind of Brexit really). Labour's position is to support Brexit in principle but oppose any practical way of bringing it about.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition > > Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand
I don't know why you keep projecting opinions onto me that I don't hold. I'm not a supporter of the status quo.
It's going to be hard to assess turnout. Gut instinct tells me that it will be higher than in the past but lower than people claim to pollsters. It's also wholly unclear whether there will be differential turnout between fired-up Leavers and militant Remainers and if so whether this is yet adequately reflected in the polls.
I'm not betting much on the EU elections. I feel uncomfortable staking much money on something that much of the public treats frivolously.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition > > > > Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand > > I don't know why you keep projecting opinions onto me that I don't hold. I'm not a supporter of the status quo.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > It's going to be hard to assess turnout. Gut instinct tells me that it will be higher than in the past but lower than people claim to pollsters. It's also wholly unclear whether there will be differential turnout between fired-up Leavers and militant Remainers and if so whether this is yet adequately reflected in the polls. > > I'm not betting much on the EU elections. I feel uncomfortable staking much money on something that much of the public treats frivolously.
> @Scott_P said: > https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1128668269517398018 Only a third of people think that the Greens or Change UK policies on Brexit are clear - and we've been speculating that the respondents to online polls will be relatively high information voters compared to the country at large.
And then as well this should provoke caution about hypothetical polls asking people how they would vote if 'x' was leader of 'y'. The voters really are not likely to have the first clue.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > > > ever closer union is the status quo > > > > No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting. > > eventually the entire fence gets pullied in the direction of ever closer Union > > all youre debating is the speed.
You rejected the slow lane in favour of something that will inevitably lead to an acceleration.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > > > > > ever closer union is the status quo > > > > > > No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting. > > > > eventually the entire fence gets pullied in the direction of ever closer Union > > > > all youre debating is the speed. > > You rejected the slow lane in favour of something that will inevitably lead to an acceleration.
that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels
I thought I'd give my one-line summation of the electoral leaflets I've received so far, in order I've received them. In case anyone, y'know, cares.
Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though.
UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!!
Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh.
SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence.
Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced.
Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels > > Sceptics working together in Brussels to further their agenda is a manifestation of political integration.
of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents.
> @solarflare said: > I thought I'd give my one-line summation of the electoral leaflets I've received so far, in order I've received them. In case anyone, y'know, cares. > > Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though. > > UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!! > > Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh. > > SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence. > > Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced. > > Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM. > > Lib Dems - nothing yet.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels > > Sceptics working together in Brussels to further their agenda is a manifestation of political integration.
Is that how you would also describe the Axis Powers?
> @Alanbrooke said: > > of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents.
Well they're not working together to dismantle the customs union...
> @williamglenn said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents. > > Well they're not working together to dismantle the customs union...
who knows ? There is such a large spectrum of parties that need to cooperate I wouldnt rule anything out. Ive been amazed at how well the Italian government has held together even though diametrically opposed politically.
> @TOPPING said: > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses. > > Some choice. > > I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
You would not be the only one either.
I know we kind-of went through this with IDS but (1) we were in opposition, so it mattered a lot less, (2) Labour had a gigantic majority, making policy even less relevant, (3) actually, apart from being a confirmed Eurosceptic, IDS isn't as hard-right as many people portray him - and his Euroscepticism didn't at the time extend to Withdrawalism.
The stakes are a lot higher now. The problem that centrist Conservatives would have in the event of an Euro-obsessive taking over the leadership is that there's not anywhere obvious to jump to. The opposite in this case of Europhobia is not Europhilia but Euroagnosticism.
Labour leaflet received today with UKIP and Change UK. Bit pointless as we have already voted (conservative) but labour's promises are bordering on dishonesty promising among several goodies is the electrification for the North Wales Coast line.
> @david_herdson said: > > @TOPPING said: > > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses. > > > > Some choice. > > > > I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn. > > You would not be the only one either. > > I know we kind-of went through this with IDS but (1) we were in opposition, so it mattered a lot less, (2) Labour had a gigantic majority, making policy even less relevant, (3) actually, apart from being a confirmed Eurosceptic, IDS isn't as hard-right as many people portray him - and his Euroscepticism didn't at the time extend to Withdrawalism. > > The stakes are a lot higher now. The problem that centrist Conservatives would have in the event of an Euro-obsessive taking over the leadership is that there's not anywhere obvious to jump to. The opposite in this case of Europhobia is not Europhilia but Euroagnosticism.
and the problem a Euro obsessive PM would have is he'd need some policies apart from Europe
I thought I'd give my one-line summation of the electoral leaflets I've received so far, in order I've received them. In case anyone, y'know, cares.
Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though.
UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!!
Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh.
SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence.
Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced.
Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM.
Lib Dems - nothing yet.
You are lucky. Where I live you get one from Tommy Robinson. One line summary: 'Vote for me I'm a racist loon bucket and I think you are all complete mugs stupid enough to vote for me.'
Yes, but the majorities were generally quite small in percentage terms. The country has shifted to Remain since and Europe isn't the highest priority for everyone.
> @logical_song said: > > Yes, but the majorities were generally quite small in percentage terms. The country has shifted to Remain since and Europe isn't the highest priority for everyone.
Plus most Leave voters didn't/won't vote Labour anyway, so what's the point trying to get their vote?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Labour leaflet received today with UKIP and Change UK. Bit pointless as we have already voted (conservative) but labour's promises are bordering on dishonesty promising among several goodies is the electrification for the North Wales Coast line. > > As if that will ever happen
> @Animal_pb said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Prediction: The Lib Dems will win Maidenhead in the next election. > > As a resident of the constituency, I'd be nervous about putting money behind that proposition.
Well there are a number of implied conditional statements behind the prediction, but I can see circumstances in which it could happen, along with a lot of other currently safe Tory seats.
> @TrèsDifficile said: > So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is? > > You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had
Eton College, Dulwich College, Trinity College Oxford, Balliol College Oxford, The House of Commons... Writing for The Times....
I thought I'd give my one-line summation of the electoral leaflets I've received so far, in order I've received them. In case anyone, y'know, cares.
Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though.
UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!!
Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh.
SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence.
Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced.
Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Animal_pb said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Prediction: The Lib Dems will win Maidenhead in the next election. > > > > As a resident of the constituency, I'd be nervous about putting money behind that proposition. > > Well there are a number of implied conditional statements behind the prediction, but I can see circumstances in which it could happen, along with a lot of other currently safe Tory seats.
It isn't that long ago (2001) when it was very close.
So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
That definition is nonsense- many people get labelled as being part of the establishment with no such authority, so it is silly to object when others with arguable amounts of authority are included. For one thing it is easy to justify any mp as being part of the establishment.
But really this just shows what a silly term it is, used however people want to define an enemy.
Remember Jeb Bush saying he was a political outsider?
Yes. Plus IDS was seen as boring but competent, was tipped beforehand by the Economist, no less, and no one really gave a stuff about Europe then. Or not as much.
So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
That definition is nonsense- many people get labelled as being part of the establishment with no such authority, so it is silly to object when others with arguable amounts of authority are included. For one thing it is easy to justify any mp as being part of the establishment.
But really this just shows what a silly term it is, used however people want to define an enemy.
Remember Jeb Bush saying he was a political outsider?
It is like when Kippers/Faragists call us members of the Metropolitan Liberal Elite.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > I was going to compare Mark Reckless to Judas but that comparison is inaccurate. > Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
Though I appreciate that a lot of Leavers don't like anything that sounds Green.
I think plenty of referendum skeptic labour mps do get it, they are just hedging their bets by not annoying the leave voters too much. That barely any voted for the deal at the third attempt rather shows their talk of not wanting referendums or remaining is just that- talk. They take no action to prevent it.
Now do the same graph but include size of labour majority.
Actually, thinking about it, lose the geographical info entirely and just have a x-y scatter graph with size of labour vote on one axis Vs size of leave vote on the other axis. If the leave voting areas have a large labour vote then they can afford to tack to remain. If the leave voting areas have a small labour vote then they can't afford to do that.
This is an election with a brexit backdrop. I would tend to trust polls that predict a higher turnout this time around. Both sides are motivated and pissed off enough.
Who leads in the polls that assume a larger turnout?
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > I was going to compare Mark Reckless to Judas but that comparison is inaccurate. > > Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > FWIW > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128671675548147712?s=19 > > > > > > I think this means low interest and turnout. > > > > I think that maybe spin Dr Foxy > > > > However, what I do not understand is how Farage is getting wall to wall coverage in the media with little or no balance > > just imagine how bad it will be if he deploys a BUS !!!!
He has a bus but there are no promises on the side (to be fair, I remember from reading articles that he was against the £350m figure but was overruled)
> You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
>
> Viability - I think you may have interpreted my post as relating to fertilisation or implantation? - is when a foetus can survive (with medical support) independent of the mother. If that is the case why should it not have rights?
I think you may have misread my entire post!
It should not have rights if it is not a person. If one could take a blastocyst and support its survival independent of the mother, as is conceivably possible in the future, you would still be starting with a blastocyst. It would be nonsense to give rights to a microscopic ball of cells. Ergo, viability (with medical support) is the wrong test.
> (I’m not a doctor, but I think it’s around 20/21 weeks on current science vs 24 weeks as the legal cut off)
This is all a massive red herring. Almost no abortions happen that late. Only 1% of abortions happen beyond 21 weeks and those are in very particular circumstances.
As for viability, no, it's not at 20/21 weeks. With current medical science, between 0-3% of births at 22 weeks survive. The shortest known gestation at birth to survive is 21 weeks and 5 days. The standard definition of viability is a 50% survival rate, and that's 24 weeks, which is the GB legal cut-off.
Convention on this board is to source facts that you cull from Wikipedia. It’s a good resource but not foolproof.
That being said you care very deeply about this topic - which is one of the reasons why I would tie to a medical definition - so there’s not much point in arguing about it
> @Charles said: > FPT > It is curious that when extreme conservatives come to power often their very first act is to limit women's freedoms. See Iran, for instance. Why are conservative men so afraid of women being free? > > I think that’s an unfair use of the term “conservative” in the second sentence Fundamentalist would be better > > The answer is that their religious texts reflect the social landscape of when they were written (you only have to compare Romans to the Pentateuch to see the impact of time) > > Fundamentalists build their appeal on simplistic calls to go back to a past when everything was peachy. Subjugating women - based on 4,000 year old texts - is a highly visible demonstration of compliance. > > It also wins them credit from the many social and intellectual inadequates in their ranks > > (You could have summarised the above as “playing to their base”)
You might both be pleased to see Campaign's Ad of the month by AMV. Bodyform's 'Viva La Vulva' appearing in toilets near you starting this week. What advertisers do today the rest of the world does tomorrow.....
Comments
> Good afternoon, everyone.
>
> Still don't know how I'm voting.
>
> Maybe I'll spoil my ballot with an F1 tip.
boring - there must be a better spoil even for you
> Is the game afoot ?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128637100289613824
>
>
>
> A tease, nothing more. Any MP abstaining is not worthy of their position (dont laugh), it being second reading matters not.
Or Labour’s masterplan is to allow the Bill through its Second Reading, propelling another wedge of its Remain supporters to the LibDems and Greens, and then vote down the final Bill to upset its leavers?
> > @Charles said:
> > You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
> >
> > Viability - I think you may have interpreted my post as relating to fertilisation or implantation? - is when a foetus can survive (with medical support) independent of the mother. If that is the case why should it not have rights?
>
> I think you may have misread my entire post!
>
> It should not have rights if it is not a person. If one could take a blastocyst and support its survival independent of the mother, as is conceivably possible in the future, you would still be starting with a blastocyst. It would be nonsense to give rights to a microscopic ball of cells. Ergo, viability (with medical support) is the wrong test.
>
> > (I’m not a doctor, but I think it’s around 20/21 weeks on current science vs 24 weeks as the legal cut off)
>
> This is all a massive red herring. Almost no abortions happen that late. Only 1% of abortions happen beyond 21 weeks and those are in very particular circumstances.
>
> As for viability, no, it's not at 20/21 weeks. With current medical science, between 0-3% of births at 22 weeks survive. The shortest known gestation at birth to survive is 21 weeks and 5 days. The standard definition of viability is a 50% survival rate, and that's 24 weeks, which is the GB legal cut-off.
That's an illogical definition though. Clearly, the child that survived after less than 22 weeks' gestation *was* viable, if only just and probably with significant medical issues.
But to simply accept an assertion that a blastocyst isn't a person because 'it's a nonsense' is weak. It's not a nonsense to the Catholic church. Indeed, without forming arbitrary or grey lines, it's a very logical position.
Personally, I'm quite happy with grey lines and case-by-case assessments made against criteria but that's a practical solution that doesn't go near the philosophical question of when a person becomes a person (though having seen 12-week scans, I'd say that there's enough of the essence of a human there at that point to give them that status).
"On 6 April 2017, Reckless left UKIP to join the Conservative Group in the Welsh Assembly; however, he did not rejoin the Conservative Party."
Section 58 of the Offences against the Person Act 1861 (unrepealed but modified by the Abortion Act 1967) ascribes very significant rights to a foetus. The effect of the two enactments is to protect its rights to existence except only in particular prescribed circumstances and evidenced in a particular way. Many of course think this is more honoured in the breach than the observance....but there is more to law than statutes. Our customs and values rightly abhor all violence against women. Don't most people think that such acts are even worse when the attacker knows the victim is pregnant, and do we not take it that in fact (regardless of law) there are two victims in such a case, not one?
> So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
>
> You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
Er, Tory MP, and wannabe Tory MP, and both public school. You don't get much more bloody Establishment than that. I personally don't have a problem with the "Establishment", or independent schools, but claiming any of these pillocks are anti-Establishment is laughable in the extreme, or as Mr. Rees-Mogg might say, "in extremis".
> I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
Wow things have come to a pretty pass.
Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
Some choice.
> So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
>
> You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had?
I don't think that's either necessary or sufficient.
The Establishment is more a concept than anything (one which may or may not be valid but that's a different point). To that end, a person's wealth, position, office or history matter less than their attitudes, behaviour and intentions.
> Mr. Cide, my earlier thought was a book recommendation for the Second Punic War.
Christ, that's good! You'd have to ID it though to be really ballsy.
> I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
>
> The same reason Alanbrooke supported Brexit in the first place. He wants to punish mainstream politicians.
Anything wrong with that ?
> > @isam said:
>
> > So patronising it could have come from the group people used to call the TIGgers
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/1128197038066348034
>
>
>
>
>
> Trouble is, he's not wrong. Let's hope Farage's current turn in the spotlight is his last hurrah.
>
> He's wrong on the dates, though. Educating 'exposing the lies'> @TOPPING said:
>
> > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> >
>
> > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> >
>
> > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
>
>
>
> Wow things have come to a pretty pass.
>
>
>
> Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
>
>
>
> Some choice.
>
> But you bitched like hell when there was a sensible one-nation right-of-centre party, and IIRC you didn't vote for it.
When was that ? If youre in comedy mode and want to say Cameron and Osborne youll brighten my day up.
Possibly as the chance of legal liability might now outweigh the commercial rationale ?
> Mr. Cide, what do you mean?
Anonymity doesn't hack it when causing such easily foreseeable offence even just involving an innocent teller 😉
> Mr. Cide, anyone offended by the Second Punic War and related books is a delinquent baboon.
> @Morris_Dancer said:
> Mr. Cide, anyone offended by the Second Punic War and related books is a delinquent baboon.
I'm sorry, i read it wrong. I read "pubic"
> > @TOPPING said:
>
> > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> >
>
> > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> >
>
> > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
>
>
>
> Wow things have come to a pretty pass.
>
>
>
> Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
>
>
>
> Some choice.
>
> But you bitched like hell when there was a sensible one-nation right-of-centre party, and IIRC you didn't vote for it.
History will have many words to describe Cameron's leadership but "sensible" is unlikely to be one of them.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
> >
> > You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
> >
> > As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
> >
> > The same reason Alanbrooke supported Brexit in the first place. He wants to punish mainstream politicians.
>
> Anything wrong with that ?
__________________________________
One could punish 'mainstream politicians' by voting Green and with less collateral damage to the reputation of politics, which is actually rather important to a country.
They don't have a dubious leader. Unlike Germany, they've never been in government here so can't be blamed for the mess - although in Germany the Greens are doing rather well; climate change is at last worrying voters.
A Monster Raving Loony vote would do less harm than an X for a charismatic right-wing charlatan who refuses to answer media questions (cf Trump).
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Broadly agree. We're doing a bit in Surrey Labour, but the sheer size of the constituencies is a deterrent, quite apart from anything else - the feeling that if you knocked on another 100 doors it would affect the result is hard to summon up. Which is of course a problem of PR, which to be meaningful needs large constituencies to even things out.
>
> IIRC, the allocation of the final MEP in South East England last time round was decided by 17 votes. 17 votes less and there would have been one more UKIP and one less LibDem MEP.
>
> So, go knock on those doors! (But not for Labour and their complete lack of a policy on Brexit.)
Inspiring post! OK (but will be for Labour!).
>
> Anything wrong with that ?
>
------
If you vote for disruption you need to be prepared for ending up with an end result you didn't intend. Personally I think you'll end up with neither Brexit nor a one-nation Tory party.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
> > >
> > > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
> >
> > MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
>
> They pass the laws that do.
It's just Tom clickbaiting. Labour won't abstain.
> Mr. Cide, ha. Well, that's easily enough done.
baboon noise off.
> Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
>
> Some choice.
>
> I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
that's simply the mirror image of my dilemna, I dont like Farage but the Tories are showing all the survival instincts of a lemming in an Aston Martin Vantage heading for a cliff
We need some up to date polls .
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > Anything wrong with that ?
> >
> ------
>
> If you vote for disruption you need to be prepared for ending up with an end result you didn't intend. Personally I think you'll end up with neither Brexit nor a one-nation Tory party.
if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition
Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/what-could-jeremy-corbyn-government-mean-your-finances-ii508229
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128632249539289088
>
> He's resigned from the conservatives again they say here???
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48275830
Once a pigdog.......
> O/T: I think this is a well-balanced article on what a Corbyn government might mean for your pension or other investments:
>
> https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/what-could-jeremy-corbyn-government-mean-your-finances-ii508229
>
OK Seeing as I'm under 40 looks like a long term buying opp...
Right now I feel as if there should be 250-equity upside as and when (May's tepid or Corbyn's customs unicorn) brexit finally happens or is cancelled ?
Obviously a no deal scenario could be suboptimal !
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @isam said:
> > > > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
> > > >
> > > > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
> > >
> > > MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
> >
> > They pass the laws that do.
>
> It's just Tom clickbaiting. Labour won't abstain.
>
No. Abstaining on the defining issue of the day would look utterly ridiculous, and anyway there would be mayhem in the party if it was seen to be helping enable a Tory Brexit (or any kind of Brexit really). Labour's position is to support Brexit in principle but oppose any practical way of bringing it about.
>
> if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition
>
> Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand
I don't know why you keep projecting opinions onto me that I don't hold. I'm not a supporter of the status quo.
I'm not betting much on the EU elections. I feel uncomfortable staking much money on something that much of the public treats frivolously.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > if you vote for the status quo and end up with a result you didnt intend there;s no downside to your proposition
> >
> > Thats the choice chunks of the electorate have made, and probably the bit you dont understand
>
> I don't know why you keep projecting opinions onto me that I don't hold. I'm not a supporter of the status quo.
ever closer union is the status quo
> It's going to be hard to assess turnout. Gut instinct tells me that it will be higher than in the past but lower than people claim to pollsters. It's also wholly unclear whether there will be differential turnout between fired-up Leavers and militant Remainers and if so whether this is yet adequately reflected in the polls.
>
> I'm not betting much on the EU elections. I feel uncomfortable staking much money on something that much of the public treats frivolously.
why not save up for a nice blazer instead ?
> https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1128668269517398018
Only a third of people think that the Greens or Change UK policies on Brexit are clear - and we've been speculating that the respondents to online polls will be relatively high information voters compared to the country at large.
And then as well this should provoke caution about hypothetical polls asking people how they would vote if 'x' was leader of 'y'. The voters really are not likely to have the first clue.
>
> ever closer union is the status quo
No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > ever closer union is the status quo
>
> No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting.
eventually the entire fence gets pullied in the direction of ever closer Union
all youre debating is the speed.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Alanbrooke said:
> > >
> > > ever closer union is the status quo
> >
> > No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting.
>
> eventually the entire fence gets pullied in the direction of ever closer Union
>
> all youre debating is the speed.
You rejected the slow lane in favour of something that will inevitably lead to an acceleration.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > >
> > > > ever closer union is the status quo
> > >
> > > No, the status quo is semi-detached fence sitting.
> >
> > eventually the entire fence gets pullied in the direction of ever closer Union
> >
> > all youre debating is the speed.
>
> You rejected the slow lane in favour of something that will inevitably lead to an acceleration.
that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128671675548147712?s=19
I think this means low interest and turnout.
Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though.
UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!!
Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh.
SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence.
Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced.
Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM.
Lib Dems - nothing yet.
>
> that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels
Sceptics working together in Brussels to further their agenda is a manifestation of political integration.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels
>
> Sceptics working together in Brussels to further their agenda is a manifestation of political integration.
of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents.
> I thought I'd give my one-line summation of the electoral leaflets I've received so far, in order I've received them. In case anyone, y'know, cares.
>
> Brexit Party - Brexity, but well produced. Not nearly as hysterical as I thought it might be. A nice big off-putting pic of Mr. Farage though.
>
> UKIP - hysterical. Everyone else is a traitor!! A traitor!!! Betrayed!!!!
>
> Scottish Greens - a very dubious-looking bar chart with no numbers on it plus the slogan "hope over hate". Meh.
>
> SNP - Largely as expected (I declare my SNP support here): ignored dragged EU voice heard stop Brexit People's vote revoke buzzword bingo. P.S. independence.
>
> Scottish Labour - oh I SUPPOSE we'd better put in a tiny vague box about Brexit in between all the guff about public services and the economy. We're against a no deal Tory Brexit but we don't know what we're for. Here's a big pic of Jezza if you're still not convinced.
>
> Scottish Conservatives - RUTH IS INCREDIBLY ANGRY NO MORE REFERENDUMS ABOUT A SECOND SCOTTISH NO MORE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM TELL NICOLA NO MORE REFERENDUMS STURGEON NO MORE REFERENDUMS. PS. we need a sensible Brexit. P.P.S. NO MORE DIVISIVE REFERENDUMS REFERENDUM REFERENDUM.
>
> Lib Dems - nothing yet.
Sounds like a win for the LibDems!
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > that remains to be seen, ironically now could be a good time to be a sceptic in Brussels
>
> Sceptics working together in Brussels to further their agenda is a manifestation of political integration.
Is that how you would also describe the Axis Powers?
>
> of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents.
Well they're not working together to dismantle the customs union...
>
> Sounds like a win for the LibDems!
https://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1128647058217426944
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> >
> > of course, it creates a degree of legitimacy the EU lacks, however if theyre working together its to change the goals from the current incumbents.
>
> Well they're not working together to dismantle the customs union...
who knows ? There is such a large spectrum of parties that need to cooperate I wouldnt rule anything out. Ive been amazed at how well the Italian government has held together even though diametrically opposed politically.
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128632249539289088
> >
> > He's resigned from the conservatives again they say here???
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48275830
>
> Once a pigdog.......
Surely, Twice a PigDog.
>
> Surely, Twice a PigDog.
TPD to TBP.
> FWIW
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128671675548147712?s=19
>
> I think this means low interest and turnout.
I think that maybe spin Dr Foxy
However, what I do not understand is how Farage is getting wall to wall coverage in the media with little or no balance
> > @Foxy said:
> > FWIW
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128671675548147712?s=19
> >
> > I think this means low interest and turnout.
>
> I think that maybe spin Dr Foxy
>
> However, what I do not understand is how Farage is getting wall to wall coverage in the media with little or no balance
just imagine how bad it will be if he deploys a BUS !!!!
> Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
>
> Some choice.
>
> I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
You would not be the only one either.
I know we kind-of went through this with IDS but (1) we were in opposition, so it mattered a lot less, (2) Labour had a gigantic majority, making policy even less relevant, (3) actually, apart from being a confirmed Eurosceptic, IDS isn't as hard-right as many people portray him - and his Euroscepticism didn't at the time extend to Withdrawalism.
The stakes are a lot higher now. The problem that centrist Conservatives would have in the event of an Euro-obsessive taking over the leadership is that there's not anywhere obvious to jump to. The opposite in this case of Europhobia is not Europhilia but Euroagnosticism.
As if that will ever happen
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Yes they have, the fact that people can be forced in to an uncomfortable choice says nothing positive about the traditional parties. This is simply the result of the they have nowhere else to go theory esposued by Blair and Cameron. I would be overjoyed if there was a sensible one nation right of centre party atm but there isnt. You can choose between conservatives with fingers in their ears singing lalalala or trying to kick the Tories back to their senses.
> >
> > Some choice.
> >
> > I will stay (and support) the Cons for as long as they are not lead by an ERG-type loon. Should that day dawn then I will have a whole lot of thinking to do especially as it would be analogous (although only analogous) to the predicament that many Lab supporters find themselves in wrt the anti-semite Corbyn.
>
> You would not be the only one either.
>
> I know we kind-of went through this with IDS but (1) we were in opposition, so it mattered a lot less, (2) Labour had a gigantic majority, making policy even less relevant, (3) actually, apart from being a confirmed Eurosceptic, IDS isn't as hard-right as many people portray him - and his Euroscepticism didn't at the time extend to Withdrawalism.
>
> The stakes are a lot higher now. The problem that centrist Conservatives would have in the event of an Euro-obsessive taking over the leadership is that there's not anywhere obvious to jump to. The opposite in this case of Europhobia is not Europhilia but Euroagnosticism.
and the problem a Euro obsessive PM would have is he'd need some policies apart from Europe
attractive polcies as well,
You are lucky. Where I live you get one from Tommy Robinson. One line summary: 'Vote for me I'm a racist loon bucket and I think you are all complete mugs stupid enough to vote for me.'
> https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1128678220193259522
Yes, but the majorities were generally quite small in percentage terms. The country has shifted to Remain since and Europe isn't the highest priority for everyone.
> Prediction: The Lib Dems will win Maidenhead in the next election.
As a resident of the constituency, I'd be nervous about putting money behind that proposition.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1052860577889042432
Though I appreciate that a lot of Leavers don't like anything that sounds Green.
>
> Yes, but the majorities were generally quite small in percentage terms. The country has shifted to Remain since and Europe isn't the highest priority for everyone.
Plus most Leave voters didn't/won't vote Labour anyway, so what's the point trying to get their vote?
> Labour leaflet received today with UKIP and Change UK. Bit pointless as we have already voted (conservative) but labour's promises are bordering on dishonesty promising among several goodies is the electrification for the North Wales Coast line.
>
> As if that will ever happen
As if the EU has any impact on train lines.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Prediction: The Lib Dems will win Maidenhead in the next election.
>
> As a resident of the constituency, I'd be nervous about putting money behind that proposition.
Well there are a number of implied conditional statements behind the prediction, but I can see circumstances in which it could happen, along with a lot of other currently safe Tory seats.
Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/1128684500249137152?s=21
> So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
>
> You need to have institutional authority to be part of "the Establishment". Boris had it when he was Foreign Sec; what institutional authority do JRM and NF have, or have they ever had
Eton College, Dulwich College, Trinity College Oxford, Balliol College Oxford, The House of Commons... Writing for The Times....
> > @Animal_pb said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Prediction: The Lib Dems will win Maidenhead in the next election.
> >
> > As a resident of the constituency, I'd be nervous about putting money behind that proposition.
>
> Well there are a number of implied conditional statements behind the prediction, but I can see circumstances in which it could happen, along with a lot of other currently safe Tory seats.
It isn't that long ago (2001) when it was very close.
But really this just shows what a silly term it is, used however people want to define an enemy.
Remember Jeb Bush saying he was a political outsider?
Yes. Plus IDS was seen as boring but competent, was tipped beforehand by the Economist, no less, and no one really gave a stuff about Europe then. Or not as much.
I’m far too Northern to be a member of MLE.
> I was going to compare Mark Reckless to Judas but that comparison is inaccurate.
> Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
You are part of the problem
Actually, thinking about it, lose the geographical info entirely and just have a x-y scatter graph with size of labour vote on one axis Vs size of leave vote on the other axis. If the leave voting areas have a large labour vote then they can afford to tack to remain. If the leave voting areas have a small labour vote then they can't afford to do that.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/05/07/could-east-london-be-about-to-get-a-monorail/
Who leads in the polls that assume a larger turnout?
https://twitter.com/MarkReckless
> Mark Reckless is already describing himself as "Leader of The Brexit Party in the Welsh Assembly".
>
> https://twitter.com/MarkReckless
But he is, isn't he?
> I was going to compare Mark Reckless to Judas but that comparison is inaccurate.
>
> Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
Bit strong
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > FWIW
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128671675548147712?s=19
> > >
> > > I think this means low interest and turnout.
> >
> > I think that maybe spin Dr Foxy
> >
> > However, what I do not understand is how Farage is getting wall to wall coverage in the media with little or no balance
>
> just imagine how bad it will be if he deploys a BUS !!!!
He has a bus but there are no promises on the side (to be fair, I remember from reading articles that he was against the £350m figure but was overruled)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1128627519522004992
That being said you care very deeply about this topic - which is one of the reasons why I would tie to a medical definition - so there’s not much point in arguing about it
> FPT
> It is curious that when extreme conservatives come to power often their very first act is to limit women's freedoms. See Iran, for instance. Why are conservative men so afraid of women being free?
>
> I think that’s an unfair use of the term “conservative” in the second sentence Fundamentalist would be better
>
> The answer is that their religious texts reflect the social landscape of when they were written (you only have to compare Romans to the Pentateuch to see the impact of time)
>
> Fundamentalists build their appeal on simplistic calls to go back to a past when everything was peachy. Subjugating women - based on 4,000 year old texts - is a highly visible demonstration of compliance.
>
> It also wins them credit from the many social and intellectual inadequates in their ranks
>
> (You could have summarised the above as “playing to their base”)
You might both be pleased to see Campaign's Ad of the month by AMV. Bodyform's 'Viva La Vulva' appearing in toilets near you starting this week. What advertisers do today the rest of the world does tomorrow.....
https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/bodyform-viva-la-vulva-bathroom-takeover-amv-bbdo/1584509?bulletin=campaign_creativity_bulletin&utm_medium=EMAIL&utm_campaign=eNews Bulletin&utm_source=20190515&utm_content=Campaign Creativity Fix (78)::&email_hash=
This is not a political party. It is a vehicle for a Farage cult.