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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls
One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and those from ComRes just out this morning.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48281672
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ4
The answer is that their religious texts reflect the social landscape of when they were written (you only have to compare Romans to the Pentateuch to see the impact of time)
Fundamentalists build their appeal on simplistic calls to go back to a past when everything was peachy. Subjugating women - based on 4,000 year old texts - is a highly visible demonstration of compliance.
It also wins them credit from the many social and intellectual inadequates in their ranks
(You could have summarised the above as “playing to their base”)
Just a theory but I'd guess people inclined to fill out opinion polls on politics are more likely to head out and vote than those that don't.
"My view is that it’s not going to happen and am betting on overall turnout in the 30-40 range,"
I suggest that BOTH 54% of the Comres poll fillers and ~35% of the General electorate may well vote.
Voting means choosing people to rule you.
If a child is viable independent of the mother at - say - 10 weeks, then why should the mother be allowed to terminate its life?
Equally, if the child is not viable then I can see an argument that the mother's rights have more sway because otherwise the mother is being forced to provide a "service" to the child
If it were up to me, I'd legislate that abortion is legal up to the age of viability and then ask the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority to determine what that age is, with a provision that they review the matter every 10 years to keep up with medical science.
> I suggest that BOTH 54% of the Comres poll fillers and ~35% of the General electorate may well vote.
Yes, but will the 54% of the poll fillers be representative of the 35% of voters? I have my doubts...
However I think some Brexiteers who abstained in the locals this year will turn out and vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
Notwithstanding the huge volatility and divergence in the polls currently, the more substantial question is whether we are seeing a rare seismic shift in public opinion or is this a brief hiatus with normal service to be resumed later.
Since 2010, we saw first the collapse of the LDs from their previous levels in the high teens - low twenties down to low single figures which coincided with the emergence of UKIP which basically took the previous LD place in the polls for a short while. With the demise of UKIP and the Referendum politics polarised around the traditional Conservative/Labour duopoly which polled 84% between them in 2017.
From 2016 until early last year, a number of factors held that arrangement in place. One was Jeremy Corbyn and the other was the belief/expectation/hope Theresa May would deliver on her commitment to take us out of the EU at the end of the 24 month A50 process. The b/e/h started on the idea of a Deal/WA and gradually coalesced toward leaving without a Deal or WA. To just leave irrespective of the consequences became the opinion of a substantial minority.
May would not or could not go down that road - the guidance she was given must have clearly demonstrated the scale of the economic dislocation likely to follow the UK leaving the EU without a WA. Consequently, she argued for one extension in a final desperate attempt to get the WA through the Commons but when that failed she was forced to go for a longer extension and the house of cards built on sand that had been her voting coalition disintegrated.
Corbyn and Labour too have problems and with a pro-LEAVE leader and a pro-REMAIN membership Labour's vote is under pressure so for the first time in my political life we have both sides of the duopoly being threatened existentially and simultaneously. When I was an activist the hope was always for re-alignment on the Left with the Alliance replacing Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives. Now we see the very real possibility of the Brexit Party supplanting the Conservatives on the centre-right (I still think it unlikely).
May remains however and desperately clings to the WA as her one way out (which it is) and we are noe seeing another power play from the beleaguered PM threatening Revoke as an option if the WA is defeated. She will know there is no majority in the Commons for Revoke or for No Deal but for the latter that doesn't matter as it remains the default position if nothing else gets a majority in the Commons.
At the moment, we still have three options - Revoke, pass the WA or leave without a WA. If the middle option ends, what will or would be the political ramifications of Revoke vs No Deal? What if Revoke wins? What if neither win and we leave without a WA on 31/10?
> FPT
> The problem with that (a position I struggle to improve on, I must admit), is that medical science keeps pushing back the point at which a pregnancy can be 'viable'. When we finally invent artificial wombs, it could be very early indeed.
>
> That's why I approach it as a question of rights.
>
> If a child is viable independent of the mother at - say - 10 weeks, then why should the mother be allowed to terminate its life?
>
> Equally, if the child is not viable then I can see an argument that the mother's rights have more sway because otherwise the mother is being forced to provide a "service" to the child
>
> If it were up to me, I'd legislate that abortion is legal up to the age of viability and then ask the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority to determine what that age is, with a provision that they review the matter every 10 years to keep up with medical science.
There are other questions as well: many early term 'viable' babies have significant health issues, and that 'viability' is only there because of massive medical intervention.
> Afternoon all
>
> At the moment, we still have three options - Revoke, pass the WA or leave without a WA. If the middle option ends, what will or would be the political ramifications of Revoke vs No Deal? What if Revoke wins? What if neither win and we leave without a WA on 31/10?
We still have the fourth option: Delay.
> Afternoon all
>
> Notwithstanding the huge volatility and divergence in the polls currently, the more substantial question is whether we are seeing a rare seismic shift in public opinion or is this a brief hiatus with normal service to be resumed later.
>
> Since 2010, we saw first the collapse of the LDs from their previous levels in the high teens - low twenties down to low single figures which coincided with the emergence of UKIP which basically took the previous LD place in the polls for a short while. With the demise of UKIP and the Referendum politics polarised around the traditional Conservative/Labour duopoly which polled 84% between them in 2017.
>
> From 2016 until early last year, a number of factors held that arrangement in place. One was Jeremy Corbyn and the other was the belief/expectation/hope Theresa May would deliver on her commitment to take us out of the EU at the end of the 24 month A50 process. The b/e/h started on the idea of a Deal/WA and gradually coalesced toward leaving without a Deal or WA. To just leave irrespective of the consequences became the opinion of a substantial minority.
>
> May would not or could not go down that road - the guidance she was given must have clearly demonstrated the scale of the economic dislocation likely to follow at had been her voting coalition disintegrated.
>
> Corbyn and Labour too have problems and with a pro-LEAVE leader and a pro-REMAIN membership Labour's vote is under pressure so for the first time in my political life we have both sides of the duopoly being threatened existentially and simultaneously. When I was an activist the hope was always for re-alignment on the Left with the Alliance replacing Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives. Now we see the very real possibility of the Brexit Party supplanting the Conservatives on the centre-right (I still think it unlikely).
>
> May remains however and desperately clings to the WA as her one way out (which it is) and we are noe seeing another power play from the beleaguered PM threatening Revoke as an option if the WA is defeated. She will know there is no majority in the Commons for Revoke or for No Deal but for the latter that doesn't matter as it remains the default position if nothing else gets a majority in the Commons.
>
> At the moment, we still have three options - Revoke, pass the WA or leave without a WA. If the middle option ends, what will or would be the political ramifications of Revoke vs No Deal? What if Revoke wins? What if neither win and we leave without a WA on 31/10?
If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
It seems to this observer however TBP, irrespective of its crystal clear view on the EU, has a lot of work to do on other socio-economic issues. Will liberal conservatives be shunted out by a more aggressively populist social conservative grouping which might for example advocate restoration of the death penalty as a manifesto pledge as well as hugely stringent anti-immigration measures?
The other side is what happens to Labour post-Corbyn - would a new leader, doubtless initially basking in the approval of Islington Man, seek to bring Labour back toward a more centrist position courting LDs and liberal conservatives too? History probably isn't that symmetrical.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128637100289613824
"It's all rubbish anyway. If anyone in the Tory party had any balls they would say that No Deal was never the basis on which either the referendum was won or the election.
If that is the way some voters want to go then this will need to be put to a vote, either at a GE or in a referendum. But it will not be the policy of the Tory party.
If individual tories want to turn themselves into a single issue Brexit party, let them leave and join it. Or if they allow themselves to break taken over by Farage and co, let old-style liberal Tories join the Lib Dems (Change UK having proved to be an utter waste of space).
The rest of us will have to enjoy the delights of a Corbyn government unchecked by pesky EU rules. I will have to dig out my old passport with its stamps at the back graciously allowing me to take £50 out of the country to go on holiday."
Huzzah for Cyclefree.
> If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
>
> My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
> Locally yes the Tories were very active in the locals but doing barely anything for the Euros and same goes for the other parties, it is an almost completely mailshot campaign with some Brexit Party rallies added on.
>
> However I think some Brexiteers who abstained in the locals this year will turn out and vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
Broadly agree. We're doing a bit in Surrey Labour, but the sheer size of the constituencies is a deterrent, quite apart from anything else - the feeling that if you knocked on another 100 doors it would affect the result is hard to summon up. Which is of course a problem of PR, which to be meaningful needs large constituencies to even things out.
> Flatmate and mother received Green Party leaflets this week. They're done as a letter from Caroline Lucas, who isn't the party leader. They don't mention the actual party leaders, Sian Berry and Jonathan Bartley. And we're in Sian Berry's ward. Berry is our local councillor. What was the point of moving the leadership away from Lucas if the party is going to act as if Lucas is still leader?
Cos she's the only one anybody's heard of?
> Flatmate and mother received Green Party leaflets this week. They're done as a letter from Caroline Lucas, who isn't the party leader. They don't mention the actual party leaders, Sian Berry and Jonathan Bartley. And we're in Sian Berry's ward. Berry is our local councillor. What was the point of moving the leadership away from Lucas if the party is going to act as if Lucas is still leader?
If Lucas is the best figurehead to use for the leaflets, but doesn't want the burden of being the leader, then it seems like the perfect arrangement. Far better than the more egotistical behaviour of leaders that are sometimes seen with other parties.
Oh, wait.
> Whatever you think of Farage, and I happen to think he is a ******* ******** *** ***** ****, he us undoubtedly a fantastic political operator.
Only in the sense that he knows how to generate faux injustices and appeal to people's insecurities and paranoia. There have been several people who have written rule books on this that he has followed.
Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair were the two genuine fantastic political operators of my time, but they both actually held and exercised power. Hopefully El Duce Nige doesn't get the chance to demonstrate his limited capability in that regard.
> Is the game afoot ?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128637100289613824
>
>
>
> Smart move by Corbyn. It would save the Conservative Party from extinction while condemning the Labour Party to implode.
>
> Oh, wait.
Would probably take a bit of wind out of the Brexit party sails - but give not enough time for the Con vote to recover.
Plus those that have already voted..
> Whatever you think of Farage, and I happen to think he is a ******* ******** *** ***** ****, he us undoubtedly a fantastic political operator.
Is he fantastic or is his opposition just total crap ?
I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/1128197038066348034?s=21
you will be relieved to know I got an election leaflet from Labour and now have the chance to vote for Sion Simon as my MEP
> > @isam said:
> > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
> >
> > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
>
> MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
They might do in El Duce Nige's Brexitopia.
> So patronising it could have come from the group people used to call the TIGgers
>
> https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/1128197038066348034
Trouble is, he's not wrong. Let's hope Farage's current turn in the spotlight is his last hurrah.
Spain pulling out of the US naval force in the Gulf over 'policy differences', and now this...
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/15/us-embassy-iraq-evacuation-1324931
Feels ominous.
> > @isam said:
> > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
> >
> > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
>
> MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
They pass the laws that do.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128637977675141120
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128638685711413249
> @TSE
>
> you will be relieved to know I got an election leaflet from Labour and now have the chance to vote for Sion Simon as my MEP
"Shortly, there will be an election...."
> FPT
> The problem with that (a position I struggle to improve on, I must admit), is that medical science keeps pushing back the point at which a pregnancy can be 'viable'. When we finally invent artificial wombs, it could be very early indeed.
>
> That's why I approach it as a question of rights.
>
> If a child is viable independent of the mother at - say - 10 weeks, then why should the mother be allowed to terminate its life?
>
> Equally, if the child is not viable then I can see an argument that the mother's rights have more sway because otherwise the mother is being forced to provide a "service" to the child
>
> If it were up to me, I'd legislate that abortion is legal up to the age of viability and then ask the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority to determine what that age is, with a provision that they review the matter every 10 years to keep up with medical science.
Why is viability the important moment? If science advances and we can bring a blastocyst to full term outside a real uterus, it would still only be a blastocyst. Why should a microscopic ball of cells have any rights?
I think more understanding of biology is appropriate here. Around 50% or more of all fertilisation events do not make it to full term, most through a failure to implant in the uterine wall, passing from the woman's body entirely unnoticed. If a person is "created" at the moment of fertilisation, then should women be doing genetic tests on their menses to check whether they've missed a tragic death? Is heaven full of blastocysts lying on clouds? Of course not. Blastocysts are not people, regardless of whether one day we can grow them outside a womb. We don't treat blastocysts as people in any other way, we don't mourn their "deaths", so we shouldn't pretend they're people in law.
Why not make the judgement based on the stage of development? A foetus at 10 weeks is not a person. The basic brain regions have begun to form, but there's nothing remotely like a functioning brain.
More understanding of history is also required! Try watching https://www.kindtowomen.com/ about what it was like when abortion was illegal in the UK.
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > @TSE
> >
> > you will be relieved to know I got an election leaflet from Labour and now have the chance to vote for Sion Simon as my MEP
>
> "Shortly, there will be an election...."
Arf!
> > @isam said:
>
> > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
>
> >
>
> > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
>
>
>
> MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
>
> True, I should have said the establishment.
Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
> Any of our military/foreign policy types have any idea what's going on with the US and Iran right now ?
>
> Spain pulling out of the US naval force in the Gulf over 'policy differences', and now this...
> https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/15/us-embassy-iraq-evacuation-1324931
>
> Feels ominous.
War with Eye ran to boost the Donald's polling ?
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > > If we revoke the Brexit Party may well lead the polls by January and Tommy Robinson and co will also become more prominent, if we No Deal the economy will take a major downturn and the Union could break apart
> >
> > >
> >
> > > My prediction a couple of years ago was that if MPs conspired to block Brexit and imprison Robinson they were setting up the perfect conditions to make Robinson a martyr and Farage a hero
> >
> >
> >
> > MPs don't imprison people, Sam.
> >
> > True, I should have said the establishment.
>
> Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
>
> Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
Well said. It's yet another Brexit lie.
>
> War with Eye ran to boost the Donald's polling ?
Not much sign of a 'special relationship' either.
https://twitter.com/samueloakford/status/1128404716860452864
Viability - I think you may have interpreted my post as relating to fertilisation or implantation? - is when a foetus can survive (with medical support) independent of the mother. If that is the case why should it not have rights?
(I’m not a doctor, but I think it’s around 20/21 weeks on current science vs 24 weeks as the legal cut off)
> Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
>
>
>
> Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
>
> The political establishment of the last 20 years.
Boris The Idiot and Rees-Mogg, and for that matter Farridge ARE very much part of the 20 year old political Establishment. You don't get much more Establishment than being (or wannabe, as was failure Farage) a Tory MP FFS!
> The political establishment of the last 20 years.
Ahhh, you're talking about Iain Duncan Smith
> > @isam said:
> > The political establishment of the last 20 years.
>
> Ahhh, you're talking about Iain Duncan Smith
haha. Yes another interesting one. An anti-establishment ex-British Army Officer . It is hilarious.
> Is the game afoot ?
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128637100289613824
>
> Smart move by Corbyn. It would save the Conservative Party from extinction while condemning the Labour Party to implode.
>
> Oh, wait.
Second Reading is not passing the Bill. There would still be amendments and Third Reading to come.
Allowing the Bill to pass Second Reading could keep May in post for several more weeks, giving plenty of opportunities for Tory infighting over amendments and delaying the moment at which a new leader has the chance to do things differently.
Then, either Labour gets the amendments it wants passed (unlikely) or they can still vote against at Third Reading.
>
>
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1128638685711413249
If I had a pound for every "very significant" or "potentially very significant" Brexit development...
> > @isam said:
>
> > Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
>
> >
>
> > The political establishment of the last 20 years.
>
>
>
> Boris The Idiot and Rees-Mogg, and for that matter Farridge ARE very much part of the 20 year old political Establishment. You don't get much more Establishment than being (or wannabe, as was failure Farage) a Tory MP FFS!
>
> Giving your opponents silly names might be mildly amusing once, but more than that it just seems contrived and unfunny, when debating.
In your opinion. I believe it adds a little light heartedness, which might be required. OK, let's remove the light heartedness. The suggestion that the leading "thinkers" (use that word advisedly) for Brexit are anti-Establishment or even non-Establishment is cretinous beyond belief, as it does not stand even the most cursory scrutiny of the most pea-brained Brexit voter.
> > @isam said:
> > Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
> >
> >
> >
> > Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
> >
> > The political establishment of the last 20 years.
>
> Boris The Idiot and Rees-Mogg, and for that matter Farridge ARE very much part of the 20 year old political Establishment. You don't get much more Establishment than being (or wannabe, as was failure Farage) a Tory MP FFS!
I don't know if you're joking but not everyone who goes to private school is part of the establishment. I went to a state school but don't have a chip on my shoulder like yourself regarding those who received a decent education. Politicians should be judged on their actions and how capable they are of interacting with the electorate rather than decisions taken by their parents.
> Broadly agree. We're doing a bit in Surrey Labour, but the sheer size of the constituencies is a deterrent, quite apart from anything else - the feeling that if you knocked on another 100 doors it would affect the result is hard to summon up. Which is of course a problem of PR, which to be meaningful needs large constituencies to even things out.
IIRC, the allocation of the final MEP in South East England last time round was decided by 17 votes. 17 votes less and there would have been one more UKIP and one less LibDem MEP.
So, go knock on those doors! (But not for Labour and their complete lack of a policy on Brexit.)
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > The political establishment of the last 20 years.
> >
> > Ahhh, you're talking about Iain Duncan Smith
>
> haha. Yes another interesting one. An anti-establishment ex-British Army Officer . It is hilarious.
Yes. You can't get much more anti-establishment than a former leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
His entire career has been dedicated to overturning the system on behalf of those without privilege.
> @TSE
>
> you will be relieved to know I got an election leaflet from Labour and now have the chance to vote for Sion Simon as my MEP
Sion Simon must be desperate for a job, surely the voters won't reject him again. Should be OK as number 2 on the list though.
>
> You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
>
As I understand it, UK law does not assign rights to a foetus. Rights are acquired at birth.
It makes abortion illegal (in most circumstances) beyond a certain time limit, not because the foetus has acquired the right to life at this date, but (I think) because there is a general sense that it offends people's sensibilities to have abortions at a later date. Sometimes an arbitrary fudge is the best compromise. We could do with rediscovering this with respect to Brexit.
I don't think that tying abortion to viability as you have framed it is at all helpful. If technology develops to the extreme of supporting a fertilised egg to maturity then it risks criminalising women for miscarriages, as we can see with the law recently passed in Georgia.
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 30% (+3)
LAB: 24% (-3)
CON: 12% (-4)
LDEM: 11% (+3)
GRN: 6% (+2)
CHUK: 4% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-3)
> > @Charles said:
>
> > FPT
>
> > The problem with that (a position I struggle to improve on, I must admit), is that medical science keeps pushing back the point at which a pregnancy can be 'viable'. When we finally invent artificial wombs, it could be very early indeed.
>
> >
>
> > That's why I approach it as a question of rights.
>
> >
>
> > If a child is viable independent of the mother at - say - 10 weeks, then why should the mother be allowed to terminate its life?
>
> >
>
> > Equally, if the child is not viable then I can see an argument that the mother's rights have more sway because otherwise the mother is being forced to provide a "service" to the child
>
> >
>
> > If it were up to me, I'd legislate that abortion is legal up to the age of viability and then ask the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority to determine what that age is, with a provision that they review the matter every 10 years to keep up with medical science.
>
>
>
> There are other questions as well: many early term 'viable' babies have significant health issues, and that 'viability' is only there because of massive medical intervention.
>
> Yes - but I see that as a technical rather than a moral or political question which is why it is better to have an independent body determine it.
I'd argue that it is very much a moral question.
> > @Charles said:
> >
> > You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
> >
>
> As I understand it, UK law does not assign rights to a foetus. Rights are acquired at birth.
>
> It makes abortion illegal (in most circumstances) beyond a certain time limit, not because the foetus has acquired the right to life at this date, but (I think) because there is a general sense that it offends people's sensibilities to have abortions at a later date. Sometimes an arbitrary fudge is the best compromise. We could do with rediscovering this with respect to Brexit.
>
> I don't think that tying abortion to viability as you have framed it is at all helpful. If technology develops to the extreme of supporting a fertilised egg to maturity then it risks criminalising women for miscarriages, as we can see with the law recently passed in Georgia.
I don't think that's so. Inheritance law, for example, grants rights to a child in being; one can sue for injuries that have been done to you prior to your birth. I suppose you could say these are provisional rights, but they are rights.
As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @isam said:
> > > Ah, "the Establishment". Would you say that the Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are not part of said "Establishment"? What about Nigel Farage (then pronounced Farridge), a son of a stockbroker who went to Dulwich School (where he is alleged to have been turned down as a prefect for having racist and fascist views), who then became a commodities broker?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Funny how all the far right Brexit fanatics look rather more "Establishment" than those opposing their madness.
> > >
> > > The political establishment of the last 20 years.
> >
> > Boris The Idiot and Rees-Mogg, and for that matter Farridge ARE very much part of the 20 year old political Establishment. You don't get much more Establishment than being (or wannabe, as was failure Farage) a Tory MP FFS!
>
> I don't know if you're joking but not everyone who goes to private school is part of the establishment. I went to a state school but don't have a chip on my shoulder like yourself regarding those who received a decent education. Politicians should be judged on their actions and how capable they are of interacting with the electorate rather than decisions taken by their parents.
So, if Boris, Rees-Mogg and Farage aren't 'establishment' who is?
> Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
> You need to decide when a foetus acquires the rights of a human. At the moment we have a more or less arbitrary date.
>
> Viability - I think you may have interpreted my post as relating to fertilisation or implantation? - is when a foetus can survive (with medical support) independent of the mother. If that is the case why should it not have rights?
I think you may have misread my entire post!
It should not have rights if it is not a person. If one could take a blastocyst and support its survival independent of the mother, as is conceivably possible in the future, you would still be starting with a blastocyst. It would be nonsense to give rights to a microscopic ball of cells. Ergo, viability (with medical support) is the wrong test.
> (I’m not a doctor, but I think it’s around 20/21 weeks on current science vs 24 weeks as the legal cut off)
This is all a massive red herring. Almost no abortions happen that late. Only 1% of abortions happen beyond 21 weeks and those are in very particular circumstances.
As for viability, no, it's not at 20/21 weeks. With current medical science, between 0-3% of births at 22 weeks survive. The shortest known gestation at birth to survive is 21 weeks and 5 days. The standard definition of viability is a 50% survival rate, and that's 24 weeks, which is the GB legal cut-off.
>
> I don't think that's so. Inheritance law, for example, grants rights to a child in being; one can sue for injuries that have been done to you prior to your birth. I suppose you could say these are provisional rights, but they are rights.
That's interesting. Are they tied to a particular date before birth, or is the simple fact of existence sufficient?
> > @Sean_F said:
> >
> > I don't think that's so. Inheritance law, for example, grants rights to a child in being; one can sue for injuries that have been done to you prior to your birth. I suppose you could say these are provisional rights, but they are rights.
>
> That's interesting. Are they tied to a particular date before birth, or is the simple fact of existence sufficient?
I think that such rights arise at conception.
> I find myself in the position of hold my nose and vote since the so called "sensible" parties havent shown any ability to engage with large slices of the electorate.
>
> You are voting for TBP in the euros? Wow things have come to a pretty pass. What are you trying to achieve?
>
> As TMay continues to point out, we would have left by now if the loons hadn't scuppered it.
>
> The same reason Alanbrooke supported Brexit in the first place. He wants to punish mainstream politicians.
Isn't the problem that you actually damage mainstream people?
The Lincoln can't stay on station in the gulf indefinitely (we did 72 days on the Vinson) and the Spanish may rejoin when the CSG moves on to the Indian Ocean.
> > @dixiedean said:
>
> > Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
>
>
>
> We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
>
> Indeed.
That being said. A man has died. It's good people think again.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
>
> We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
>
>
Danny Baker last week.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
>
> We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
>
>
Yep.
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @dixiedean said:
> > > Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
> >
> > We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
> >
> >
>
> Danny Baker last week.
Very true. Kick something when its down, yet ignore it until it becomes fashionable to hate it.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > Off topic. But how come everyone has suddenly decided Jeremy Kyle is "a bad thing"? It has been on for 14 years, and hasn't changed much. The fact that someone has died now means people seem to have noticed it. My only surprise is it has gone on so long before the worst happened.
>
> We need a new folk devil / moral panic every week. This week it is Mr Kyle's turn.
>
>
Certainly. Newspapers need to fill their columns and there's all those 24 hour news channels which have to pretend that something newsworthy happens every 5 minutes or so.
Still don't know how I'm voting.
Maybe I'll spoil my ballot with an F1 tip.
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128632249539289088
He's resigned from the conservatives again they say here???
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48275830
> There’s never been such a media focus on a European election before, nor has there ever been a Euro election with a clear defining issue that everyone can relate to. I expect to see turnout surprising on the upside.
-------------------
Ironically we could end up with a turnout that is higher than for some countries that are remaining in the EU.