> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
> @Drutt said: > > @Drutt said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22) > > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Yes. The way the Brexit polls are squared with the EU election polls is to put the majority of the residual Tory EU voters into the Remain column. Tory leavers are almost all shopping elsewhere.
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
No.
Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
No.
Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone.
It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Drutt said: > > > @Drutt said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > > > > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22) > > > > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12. > > Yes. The way the Brexit polls are squared with the EU election polls is to put the majority of the residual Tory EU voters into the Remain column. Tory leavers are almost all shopping elsewhere. The Tory European elections vote is roughly split 50% 50% Remainers and Leavers with some putting Remainers fractionally ahead as most Tory Leavers will vote Brexit Party in the European elections
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
And anyone who owns or rents a house or flat.
Obviously anyone who owns a house is a landowner. Presumably you feel landlords will just pass any land tax on to tenants and maybe the market will lead to some of that. But frankly, the people who will notice it are those like me and above*, not Mr & Mrs Joe average in their 3 bed semi or 1 bed flat.
(*And those who will really be impacted it are the people who have more wealth than they could ever possibly spend in their or their offspring's lifetime, so they probably won't really notice it either.)
> @thecommissioner said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > So isn’t this going to be fun, we essentially two different sets of polls. Who to believe? > > > The BP are winning all of them. 0-26 or 0-34 in a few weeks. > >
The difference is important though - a BP vote share below 25% would be unlikely to generate further momentum.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > From the Guardian- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions. > > > > > > > > > > > > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU. > > > > > > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government. > > > > Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap. > > They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now. > > Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up. > > A cheery thought for us all. > > 'all' being all landowners presumably?
> @Benpointer said: > > @Dadge said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > > > > > > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose. > > > > Less than 50% nowadays. Latest poll suggests Leave is at around 44% > > > And not all Leavers are of Farage's No Deal extremist persuasion; still quite a few who favour Farage's former position of Norway or similar.
Cummings was correct in that Leave only got over 50% and won a majority by getting soft Brexiteers behind it, Farage sympathisers alone would not do it but ironically the Leave victory was the worst possible result for Farage's future in UK politics as the collapse of UKIP in the aftermath showed. A narrow Remain win would have kept UKIP far higher in the polls.
However by refusing to implement the Brexit vote Remainer MPs have given Farage a resurrection, he has founded a shiny new Brexit Party to cry 'betrayal' from and is now leading the European elections polls and neck and neck with the Tories in some general election polls
Here in Remainerville, west London I've had just two leaflets so far - from the Brexit Party and UKIP. An exercise in trolling, rather than prospecting for votes, I'd say.
It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone.
It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
Let's see the detail of the proposals before we predict they will lead to disaster.
I still recall how the minimum wage was predicted to turn us into the UKSSR
> @Drutt said: > > @Drutt said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22) > > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Nah. Whatever's left of the Tory vote in this election is probably going to be a fairly accurate reflection of the extent of public support for Mrs May's deal.
There's no other reason to vote Conservative in the European elections apart from tribal loyalty - and, with recent evidence suggesting that three in five Tory party members are likely to vote for the Brexit party, that commodity is in very short supply.
> > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> >
>
> > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
>
>
>
> Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
>
> They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
>
> Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
>
> A cheery thought for us all.
>
> 'all' being all landowners presumably?
Venezuela here we come
Don't worry you can always emigrate to Monaco and take your rolling acres with you.
Oh...
(Edit: God what a mess this Vanilla feck-up of Blockquotes is creating. Are you sorting this out OGH?)
> @brokenwheel said: > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone.
It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
Let's see the detail of the proposals before we predict they will lead to disaster.
I still recall how the minimum wage was predicted to turn us into the UKSSR
You're expecting details from a proposal by Corbyn?
The man didn't even know how tuition fee debt worked.
I don't think taxing assets like a family home is the way to go. How would a government go about taxing a house for starters? Would it force the owner to take out some sort of mortgage to obtain the cash? Many people under the age of 50 for instance maybe asset rich (Owning a home bit with a mortgage) but cash poor.
In a similar vein Is it really fair to induce a wealth tax on someone's bank account if they have over a certain amount of money either? It does not feel right to me.
I do think it is time to turn the spending taps on again to some extent but I question the validity of wealth taxes. To be honest I don't think increasing income tax works beyond a certain point as it creates disincentives or actually lowers the tax take beyond a certain point.
It is a noble quest to make a society more equal but you can only push these things so far. In terms of a tax increase I would happily see would be capital gains tax, increased by the coalition and cut by the Conservatives. Capital gains tax would for instance hit second home owners or landlords but unless the rules were changed would not hit a family home.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @Drutt said: > > > @Drutt said: > > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > > > > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22) > > > > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12. > > Nah. Whatever's left of the Tory vote in this election is probably going to be a fairly accurate reflection of the extent of public support for Mrs May's deal. > > There's no other reason to vote Conservative in the European elections apart from tribal loyalty - and, with recent evidence suggesting that three in five Tory party members are likely to vote for the Brexit party, that commodity is in very short supply.
Less than 20% back May's Deal as a first preference but if it is the only alternative to Remain or No Deal the Withdrawal Agreement polls much higher as a second preference
You can bet your backside that the EU elections will solve nothing. It will boil down to 3 groups: hard remain (LD, CUK, Green, SNP, PC), hard brexit (Brexit party, UKIP) and the pragmatist/fudgers (Lab, Con). All groups will receive roughly a third of the vote. The three groups will then analyse the results in a way that best supports their political bias.
Eg Remainers will include Lab in their seat count on the basis most of the membership are pro-remain. Leavers will argue that Lab, Con, UKIP and BP all constitute a vote for brexit and that Remainers should get out of their way.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone.
It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
Let's see the detail of the proposals before we predict they will lead to disaster.
I still recall how the minimum wage was predicted to turn us into the UKSSR
You're expecting details from a proposal by Corbyn?
The man didn't even know how tuition fee debt worked.
I'm expecting details from Labour (specifically McDonnell) before the next GE.
But in the absence of details why don't we all don our "End of the World' sandwich boards - after all, who needs to wait for facts?
The power of suggestion... reading this site all day has made me think the Lib Dem’s are involved in a head bobbing finish for these Euros... and they’re 50/1!
Wealth tax: Another policy where the Tories and their media buddies will try their hardest to dupe people who will benefit from the change into thinking they'll be worse off and therefore oppose it.
The power of suggestion... reading this site all day has made me think the Lib Dem’s are involved in a head bobbing finish for these Euros... and they’re 50/1!
Reading PB all day can seriously damage your judgement.
> @justin124 said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > So isn’t this going to be fun, we essentially two different sets of polls. Who to believe? > > > > > > The BP are winning all of them. 0-26 or 0-34 in a few weeks. > > > > > > The difference is important though - a BP vote share below 25% would be unlikely to generate further momentum.
Well, they are polling 26-34% at the moment and we've repeatedly seen how quickly winners can emerge from virtually nowhere in the last 10-15 years in Europe.
What were the SNP polling in 2007 when they first won an election? Eight years later, they almost had a clean sweep in Scotland.
I must say some Tory MPs really are cowards, rolling over and desperate to seek electoral pacts with the Brexit Party before that party even wins its first election, not even considering perhaps at least trying to see if achieving Brexit will neuter the appeal of the Brexit party.
On CUK, yes, they could be pretty much dead soon. They went big and bold, and in some early polls were even in with a shout of matching the LD total in the Euros, but now they might get nothing and what is their purpose after that? They've had reasonable amounts of coverage but don't seem to be breaking through and are starting to whine a bit too.
Greens seem to be quietly getting on with their thing too, despite not getting all that much attention.
------------------------------------------------ So glad the last few weeks have been so productive and full of willingness to compromise on both sides.
> @isam said: > The power of suggestion... reading this site all day has made me think the Lib Dem’s are involved in a head bobbing finish for these Euros... and they’re 50/1!
> Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
Not really because it wil all tot up the same. Leavers v remainers deadlocked
I think it would be more significant than that Big_G. For one thing it would show a sizeable proportion of voters (depending on turnout) are paying attention and changing their vote according to their Brexit views.
> @Ploppikins said: > You can bet your backside that the EU elections will solve nothing. It will boil down to 3 groups: hard remain (LD, CUK, Green, SNP, PC), hard brexit (Brexit party, UKIP) and the pragmatist/fudgers (Lab, Con). All groups will receive roughly a third of the vote. The three groups will then analyse the results in a way that best supports their political bias. > > Eg Remainers will include Lab in their seat count on the basis most of the membership are pro-remain. > Leavers will argue that Lab, Con, UKIP and BP all constitute a vote for brexit and that Remainers should get out of their way. > > Thus nothing is solved. xD
-------------------------- The problem in a nutshell. The Labour two policy approach has shielded them to a degree but does undermine being put in either camp really, though it is clearly more one than the other.
> @brokenwheel said: > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
My guess would be over 40% at least too. Even when people have been predicting dire turnouts lately they’ve actually not been too bad, and I’m not picking up much talk of any vote strike this time.
> The power of suggestion... reading this site all day has made me think the Lib Dem’s are involved in a head bobbing finish for these Euros... and they’re 50/1!
> @Benpointer said: > > @Foxy said: > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065 > > > > > > > > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top. > > > > > > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons! > > > > Not really because it wil all tot up the same. Leavers v remainers deadlocked > > I think it would be more significant than that Big_G. For one thing it would show a sizeable proportion of voters (depending on turnout) are paying attention and changing their vote according to their Brexit views.
To me it is still polarised and each side will claim victory when in truth deadlock prevails
> @williamglenn said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
> @williamglenn said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past?
Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > My guess would be over 40 at least too. Even when people have been predicting dire turnouts lately they’ve actually not been too bad, and I’m not picking up much talk of any vote strike this time.
Today's anecdata, committee meeting at church, a spontaneous conversation on the election before starting. Fairly left wing 50-60 somethings, me the only male. 1 postal vote for Labour already gone, but quite defensive about it. Remainder of group going LD or Green, with debate over which was most likely to win in the EM.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past? > > Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
------------------------------ And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > > > > From the Guardian- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' > > > > > > > > > > > > > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions. > > > > > > > > > > > > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU. > > > > > > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government. > > > > Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap. > > They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now. > > Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up. > > A cheery thought for us all. > > 'all' being all landowners presumably? > > No. > > Anyone with a freehold property for starters. > > Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society. > > Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997. > > I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share. > > Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone. > > It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
There is a tax on living in a house or flat which is called the council tax. When renting property or buying land, you need to consider what this cost is and make sure that you can afford it. No one is going bust or needing to take out a second mortgage to pay for the council tax.
Secondly in Germany there is a tax on land. Nobody is claiming that this tax leads to reposessions, which will lead to more homelessness.
> @Quincel said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065 > > > > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top. > > > > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons! > > Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides. > > Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
------------------------ Hard to see that happening when the EU elections a point of relative success for them (good locals and an impressive parliament seat win they have held onto, they are not that successful) and looking to build on that. All remainers piling behind the LDs makes some sense, but as you note it probably won't occur because of that partisan level loyalty.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019? > > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout. > >
> @thecommissioner said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019? > > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout. > >
---------------------------------- Why do I get the feeling their answer to that problem would be 'more Europe'?
> @thecommissioner said: > What were the SNP polling in 2007 when they first won an election? Eight years later, they almost had a clean sweep in Scotland.
From memory the polling was pretty good. Had them 2-3 percentage points ahead of Labour. Seat share was predicted to be 1 ahead and so it was.
'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
How do you think our diplomatic influence will be impacted when all those nice sovereign funds have their assets swiped?
> @kle4 said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > > > Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past? > > > > Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > > > Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas. > > ------------------------------ > And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
Perhaps this polarisation is never going to be resolved - or, at least, not for a very, very long time.
Ulsterization: the longer a single issue, for which no decisive majority to reach a settlement one way or the other, dominates all others, the more likely polarisation along the axis of that issue is to intensify, as the mushy centre that seeks messy compromises gradually disintegrates.
Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless.
It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age.
Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate.
Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval.
I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are.
“Lying crooks the lot of them”
You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
(1) Lying crooks
(2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
Category no (2): commodity brokers who think they are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks. Until they meet me.
Fair point.
Still they’re better than LME brokers!
No need to tell me. I worked on the International Tin Council litigation.
----------------------------- I really do not doubt her desire or intention, but the point has long since past wherein the Cabinet cannot possibly believe such an outcome will occur, and it is also long past the point whereby when May does go and they try to say how much they thought she was doign a crap job, they deserve an epic roasting for that because if they think that what the hell are they still doing in the Cabinet?
> > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
> >
> > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
>
> Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
>
> Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
------------------------
Hard to see that happening when the EU elections a point of relative success for them (good locals and an impressive parliament seat win they have held onto, they are not that successful) and looking to build on that. All remainers piling behind the LDs makes some sense, but as you note it probably won't occur because of that partisan level loyalty.
Clearly the Green Party is not going to say 'vote LD' but I would contend many of their regular supporters are pretty savvy people who will readily switch to the LDs for this vote if they see that as the best way to take some of the wind out of the BP's sails.
I'm confident that all of the PBers urging Remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems will be urging everyone to vote Labour at the next GE as the only way to get rid of the Tories.
> @eristdoof said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > > > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019? > > > > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout. > > > > > > So have most of the local councils in the UK ------------------------------------------------------- Most local councils do not have the lofty ambitions or grandiloquent defences of their role by supporters of the EU though.
> @Black_Rook said: > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
> Change UK are utterly lame, as is their leaflet. They have no idea what they want nor how to get it nor how to persuade others.
>
> And the selfie picture is unbelievably smug.
>
> Have you seen the PPB?
>
> No. Not interested really. Why? Is it a Must See because it is so bad?
>
> Everything about it is bad. Wooden delivery, no passion or energy, cold looking, poor script.. Like a 6th form project by amateurs
>
> You be the judge, if you so wish.
>
>
>
> The use of "Remain" to start slogans is he best bit I'd say
The last minute is utterly ridiculous - and indeed presumptuous! Heidi Allen is in no position to say there will be a televised debate this Friday. Since when does she control the Broadcasters and how can she seriously believe that they will meekly bow to her wishes? Pure fantasy.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Quincel said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065 > > > > > > > > > > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top. > > > > > > > > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons! > > > > > > Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides. > > > > > > Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too. > > > > ------------------------ > > Hard to see that happening when the EU elections a point of relative success for them (good locals and an impressive parliament seat win they have held onto, they are not that successful) and looking to build on that. All remainers piling behind the LDs makes some sense, but as you note it probably won't occur because of that partisan level loyalty. > > Clearly the Green Party is not going to say 'vote LD' but I would contend many of their regular supporters are pretty savvy people who will readily switch to the LDs for this vote if they see that as the best way to take some of the wind out of the BP's sails.
-------------------------------------- I expressed myself poorly - I don't think most of their supporters would do that. Not because they are not savvy, but because the Green brand is distinct from LD and if they were the types who cared about winning or making a point by backing someone else they probably would not be backing the Greens to begin with. That their poll ratings are also up, IIRC, if not as impressively, demonstrates that I think.
> Perhaps this polarisation is never going to be resolved - or, at least, not for a very, very long time. > > Ulsterization: the longer a single issue, for which no decisive majority to reach a settlement one way or the other, dominates all others, the more likely polarisation along the axis of that issue is to intensify, as the mushy centre that seeks messy compromises gradually disintegrates. > > Con/Lab = UUP/SDLP. QED. --------------------------
What a depressing thought. One Ulster is more than enough. And then some.
I'm confident that all of the PBers urging Remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems will be urging everyone to vote Labour at the next GE as the only way to get rid of the Tories.
Normally I'd agree with you... but conceivably the Tories will be battling it out with the LDs for 3rd place in the next GE!
I'm confident that all of the PBers urging Remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems will be urging everyone to vote Labour at the next GE as the only way to get rid of the Tories.
Sure they would, if Labour were anywhere near being a credible non-racist government-in-waiting. As it is, however...
> @ah009 said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas.
Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
> @Cyclefree said: > Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless. > > It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age. > > Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate. > > Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval. > > I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are. > > “Lying crooks the lot of them” > > You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree > > You’ve got two types of commodity brokers > > (1) Lying crooks > > (2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks > > Category no (2): commodity brokers who think they are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks. Until they meet me. > > Fair point. > > Still they’re better than LME brokers! > > > No need to tell me. I worked on the International Tin Council litigation.
----------------------------------- When I discover there was a thing called the International Tin Council I almost believe the conspiracy theorists about forces controlling the world, in the sense that there are so many things about the way the world works that I, and presumably others, have absolutely no clue about. Even as a commodities thing which collapsed, or whatever, it astounds me.
Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
> > Clearly the Green Party is not going to say 'vote LD' but I would contend many of their regular supporters are pretty savvy people who will readily switch to the LDs for this vote if they see that as the best way to take some of the wind out of the BP's sails.
Brexit is a second-order issue for Green supporters. They won't be switching to the LibDems.
------------------------- Well, Gavin Williamson had pride of place amongst them as a senior figure, and would be there now but for apparently being too shifty, not for his stupidity. Does that answer the question?
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
No. Anyone owning a house. They’re built on land after all.
Then there’s council tax, also meant to be based on market value. If market value is what government says it is, why should it not be raised for council tax purposes?
And what about a wider wealth tax? Why wouldn’t a government decide that your granny’s jewellery is worth something other than market value?
When a government starts thinking that it can decide that it can arbitrarily determine what something is worth, none of us can be confident of rights to property (in the widest sense).
I'm confident that all of the PBers urging Remainers to coalesce behind the LibDems will be urging everyone to vote Labour at the next GE as the only way to get rid of the Tories.
Here's some interesting economic data - in the twelve months to the end of March the cumulative number of working days lost to labour disputes was only 107 thousand - the lowest on record.
By comparison every month from February 1991 back to May 1942 the cumulative twelve month total was over a million lost days - regularly over ten million lost days during the 1970s and 1980s.
So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ?
> @kle4 said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > > > Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past? > > > > Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > > > Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas. > > ------------------------------ > And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
May will never win No Deal ERG hardliners or Remainers, what she has to win are 50 or so Labour MPs from Leave seats to add to the 280 the Deal got last time to get a small majority. The Brexit Party taking Peterborough from Labour following a Brexit Party surge in the European elections in the North and Midlands could be just the ticket
> @HYUFD said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead? > > Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas. > > Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today:
Polls in low turn out elections always difficult, especially with new parties. My guess is LDs will not get 19%. Brexit party will do better than 26%. My bet is Greens will do better. Lab and Tories about right. Change UK...useless.
> @eristdoof said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout. > > > > > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%. > > > > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019? > > > > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout. > > > > > > So have most of the local councils in the UK
So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ?
Do you really need to ask? Maggie slew the dragon. It's as simple as that.
And it certainly needed slaying. People talk about the UK being a divided country today. Those of us old enough to remember the 70s and late 60s know what a really divided country is.
> @HYUFD said: > Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
> @Scott_P said: > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1128408500969848832 -------------------------- I make plenty of overly confident seeming predictions. But I really mean it when I say I do not believe for one second that any party would abstain on this issue, no matter how tortured a position they have been attempting to hold.
> @another_richard said: > Here's some interesting economic data - in the twelve months to the end of March the cumulative number of working days lost to labour disputes was only 107 thousand - the lowest on record. > > By comparison every month from February 1991 back to May 1942 the cumulative twelve month total was over a million lost days - regularly over ten million lost days during the 1970s and 1980s. > > So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ? > > Data on page 18 of the spreadsheet here: > > https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/summaryoflabourmarketstatistics >
I think the weakness of private sector unions is because the battles are won, as well as service industries harder to unionise.
Equal pay, holiday pay, security against unfare dismissal, health and safety. These are all enforced by law, often EU law. There simply is less need to be in a union compared to when I was born.
Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
No.
Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
You are missing the point.
I have no issue with paying a tax based on market value.
I have a very strong objection to paying tax based on an arbitrary figure plucked out of the air which will bear no relation to my property’s market value.
I have an equally strong objection to having my savings expropriated which is what compensation at less than market value is.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ? > > Do you really need to ask? Maggie slew the dragon. It's as simple as that. > > And it certainly needed slaying. People talk about the UK being a divided country today. Those of us old enough to remember the 70s and late 60s know what a really divided country is.
Thatcher would be appalled at what the Tory party has become.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > > > > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead? > > > > Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas. > > > > Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier > > Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today: > > https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1128185747964596224?s=19
Better to pause and think than spout off without thinking, he is a good candidate
> @HYUFD said: > Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
You're a better man than I.
I turned it off after 20 minutes thanks to the silly phone-like animations on the daughter and watched some of the eurovision qualifiers.
> @Jonathan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism > > It was really good.
Yes, he normally writes well even if a little too PC
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @ah009 said: > > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.) > > > > > > > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead? > > > > > > Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas. > > > > > > Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier > > > > Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today: > > > > https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1128185747964596224?s=19 > > Better to pause and think than spout off without thinking, he is a good candidate
He paused, and couldn't think of any. An empty vessel.
> Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
They’ve shouted a lot about coming second in the referendum
> @Benpointer said: > Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism > > Spoiler alert? I've got that recorded thank-you! Will say no more
Comments
> > @Drutt said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > > >
> > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> > >
> > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> >
> > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
>
> Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Yes. The way the Brexit polls are squared with the EU election polls is to put the majority of the residual Tory EU voters into the Remain column. Tory leavers are almost all shopping elsewhere.
I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
> So isn’t this going to be fun, we essentially two different sets of polls. Who to believe?
The BP are winning all of them. 0-26 or 0-34 in a few weeks.
> > @Drutt said:
> > > @Drutt said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> > > >
> > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> > >
> > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
> >
> > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
>
> Yes. The way the Brexit polls are squared with the EU election polls is to put the majority of the residual Tory EU voters into the Remain column. Tory leavers are almost all shopping elsewhere.
The Tory European elections vote is roughly split 50% 50% Remainers and Leavers with some putting Remainers fractionally ahead as most Tory Leavers will vote Brexit Party in the European elections
(*And those who will really be impacted it are the people who have more wealth than they could ever possibly spend in their or their offspring's lifetime, so they probably won't really notice it either.)
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > So isn’t this going to be fun, we essentially two different sets of polls. Who to believe?
>
>
> The BP are winning all of them. 0-26 or 0-34 in a few weeks.
>
>
The difference is important though - a BP vote share below 25% would be unlikely to generate further momentum.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > From the Guardian-
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> >
>
> > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
>
>
>
> Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
>
> They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
>
> Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
>
> A cheery thought for us all.
>
> 'all' being all landowners presumably?
Venezuela here we come
> > @Dadge said:
>
> > > @nico67 said:
>
> > > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
>
> > >
>
> > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
>
>
>
> Less than 50% nowadays. Latest poll suggests Leave is at around 44%
>
>
> And not all Leavers are of Farage's No Deal extremist persuasion; still quite a few who favour Farage's former position of Norway or similar.
Cummings was correct in that Leave only got over 50% and won a majority by getting soft Brexiteers behind it, Farage sympathisers alone would not do it but ironically the Leave victory was the worst possible result for Farage's future in UK politics as the collapse of UKIP in the aftermath showed. A narrow Remain win would have kept UKIP far higher in the polls.
However by refusing to implement the Brexit vote Remainer MPs have given Farage a resurrection, he has founded a shiny new Brexit Party to cry 'betrayal' from and is now leading the European elections polls and neck and neck with the Tories in some general election polls
I still recall how the minimum wage was predicted to turn us into the UKSSR
> > @Drutt said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > > >
> > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> > >
> > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> >
> > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
>
> Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Nah. Whatever's left of the Tory vote in this election is probably going to be a fairly accurate reflection of the extent of public support for Mrs May's deal.
There's no other reason to vote Conservative in the European elections apart from tribal loyalty - and, with recent evidence suggesting that three in five Tory party members are likely to vote for the Brexit party, that commodity is in very short supply.
Oh...
(Edit: God what a mess this Vanilla feck-up of Blockquotes is creating. Are you sorting this out OGH?)
>
> It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
The man didn't even know how tuition fee debt worked.
Also, has she lifted this nonsense from the Guardian live update or have they pinched it from her? Either way I find it baffling.
In a similar vein Is it really fair to induce a wealth tax on someone's bank account if they have over a certain amount of money either? It does not feel right to me.
I do think it is time to turn the spending taps on again to some extent but I question the validity of wealth taxes. To be honest I don't think increasing income tax works beyond a certain point as it creates disincentives or actually lowers the tax take beyond a certain point.
It is a noble quest to make a society more equal but you can only push these things so far. In terms of a tax increase I would happily see would be capital gains tax, increased by the coalition and cut by the Conservatives. Capital gains tax would for instance hit second home owners or landlords but unless the rules were changed would not hit a family home.
> > @Drutt said:
> > > @Drutt said:
> > > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > > > >
> > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> > > >
> > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> > >
> > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
> >
> > Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
>
> Nah. Whatever's left of the Tory vote in this election is probably going to be a fairly accurate reflection of the extent of public support for Mrs May's deal.
>
> There's no other reason to vote Conservative in the European elections apart from tribal loyalty - and, with recent evidence suggesting that three in five Tory party members are likely to vote for the Brexit party, that commodity is in very short supply.
Less than 20% back May's Deal as a first preference but if it is the only alternative to Remain or No Deal the Withdrawal Agreement polls much higher as a second preference
Eg Remainers will include Lab in their seat count on the basis most of the membership are pro-remain.
Leavers will argue that Lab, Con, UKIP and BP all constitute a vote for brexit and that Remainers should get out of their way.
Thus nothing is solved. xD
> https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1128398511614066688
>
>
>
> What is this trying to say?
>
> Also, has she lifted this nonsense from the Guardian live update or have they pinched it from her? Either way I find it baffling.
Agreement without agreement. That is perfectly clear.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
But in the absence of details why don't we all don our "End of the World' sandwich boards - after all, who needs to wait for facts?
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
>
> A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
>
> Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
Not really because it wil all tot up the same. Leavers v remainers deadlocked
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1128399896447463425
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > So isn’t this going to be fun, we essentially two different sets of polls. Who to believe?
> >
> >
> > The BP are winning all of them. 0-26 or 0-34 in a few weeks.
> >
> >
>
> The difference is important though - a BP vote share below 25% would be unlikely to generate further momentum.
Well, they are polling 26-34% at the moment and we've repeatedly seen how quickly winners can emerge from virtually nowhere in the last 10-15 years in Europe.
What were the SNP polling in 2007 when they first won an election? Eight years later, they almost had a clean sweep in Scotland.
On CUK, yes, they could be pretty much dead soon. They went big and bold, and in some early polls were even in with a shout of matching the LD total in the Euros, but now they might get nothing and what is their purpose after that? They've had reasonable amounts of coverage but don't seem to be breaking through and are starting to whine a bit too.
Greens seem to be quietly getting on with their thing too, despite not getting all that much attention.
> And now in English...
>
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1128399896447463425
------------------------------------------------
So glad the last few weeks have been so productive and full of willingness to compromise on both sides.
> The power of suggestion... reading this site all day has made me think the Lib Dem’s are involved in a head bobbing finish for these Euros... and they’re 50/1!
I got 130/1. Top tip from OGH
> You can bet your backside that the EU elections will solve nothing. It will boil down to 3 groups: hard remain (LD, CUK, Green, SNP, PC), hard brexit (Brexit party, UKIP) and the pragmatist/fudgers (Lab, Con). All groups will receive roughly a third of the vote. The three groups will then analyse the results in a way that best supports their political bias.
>
> Eg Remainers will include Lab in their seat count on the basis most of the membership are pro-remain.
> Leavers will argue that Lab, Con, UKIP and BP all constitute a vote for brexit and that Remainers should get out of their way.
>
> Thus nothing is solved. xD
--------------------------
The problem in a nutshell. The Labour two policy approach has shielded them to a degree but does undermine being put in either camp really, though it is clearly more one than the other.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
>
>
>
> >
>
> > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
>
> >
>
> > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
>
>
>
> Not really because it wil all tot up the same. Leavers v remainers deadlocked
>
> I think it would be more significant than that Big_G. For one thing it would show a sizeable proportion of voters (depending on turnout) are paying attention and changing their vote according to their Brexit views.
To me it is still polarised and each side will claim victory when in truth deadlock prevails
> > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
>
> What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
>
> What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past?
Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
>
> A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
>
> Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> >
> > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
>
> What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
>
> My guess would be over 40 at least too. Even when people have been predicting dire turnouts lately they’ve actually not been too bad, and I’m not picking up much talk of any vote strike this time.
Today's anecdata, committee meeting at church, a spontaneous conversation on the election before starting. Fairly left wing 50-60 somethings, me the only male. 1 postal vote for Labour already gone, but quite defensive about it. Remainder of group going LD or Green, with debate over which was most likely to win in the EM.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > >
> > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> >
> > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
>
> Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past?
>
> Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
>
> Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
------------------------------
And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Cyclefree said:
>
> >
>
> > > From the Guardian-
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> >
>
> > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
>
>
>
> Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
>
> They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
>
> Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
>
> A cheery thought for us all.
>
> 'all' being all landowners presumably?
>
> No.
>
> Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
>
> Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
>
> Pah! Heard all this 'end of days' nonsense before 1997.
>
> I'm a modest landowner (as in house with large garden, which probably puts me well into the top 5%, if not 1%). Taxes are necessary for a well-ordered society and need to be balanced away from income towards wealth imo. Happy to pay my share.
>
> Taxing non income generating assets will be disastrous for everyone.
>
> It'll likely lead to repossessions which will increase costs for councils to house the homeless.
There is a tax on living in a house or flat which is called the council tax. When renting property or buying land, you need to consider what this cost is and make sure that you can afford it. No one is going bust or needing to take out a second mortgage to pay for the council tax.
Secondly in Germany there is a tax on land. Nobody is claiming that this tax leads to reposessions, which will lead to more homelessness.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
> >
> > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
> >
> > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
>
> Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
>
> Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
------------------------
Hard to see that happening when the EU elections a point of relative success for them (good locals and an impressive parliament seat win they have held onto, they are not that successful) and looking to build on that. All remainers piling behind the LDs makes some sense, but as you note it probably won't occur because of that partisan level loyalty.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > >
> > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> >
> > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
>
> Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
>
> For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
>
>
So have most of the local councils in the UK
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > >
> > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> >
> > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
>
> Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
>
> For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
>
>
----------------------------------
Why do I get the feeling their answer to that problem would be 'more Europe'?
> What were the SNP polling in 2007 when they first won an election? Eight years later, they almost had a clean sweep in Scotland.
From memory the polling was pretty good. Had them 2-3 percentage points ahead of Labour. Seat share was predicted to be 1 ahead and so it was.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > >
> > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> > >
> > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
> >
> > Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past?
> >
> > Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
> >
> > Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
>
> ------------------------------
> And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
Perhaps this polarisation is never going to be resolved - or, at least, not for a very, very long time.
Ulsterization: the longer a single issue, for which no decisive majority to reach a settlement one way or the other, dominates all others, the more likely polarisation along the axis of that issue is to intensify, as the mushy centre that seeks messy compromises gradually disintegrates.
Con/Lab = UUP/SDLP. QED.
Labour being pushed into third place by the Lib Dems is what we should be aiming for .
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128405935154659336
More than she managed in the last 3 years...
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128405935154659336
-----------------------------
I really do not doubt her desire or intention, but the point has long since past wherein the Cabinet cannot possibly believe such an outcome will occur, and it is also long past the point whereby when May does go and they try to say how much they thought she was doign a crap job, they deserve an epic roasting for that because if they think that what the hell are they still doing in the Cabinet?
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > >
> > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> > >
> > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
> >
> > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
> >
> > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
> >
> >
>
> So have most of the local councils in the UK
-------------------------------------------------------
Most local councils do not have the lofty ambitions or grandiloquent defences of their role by supporters of the EU though.
> If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128405935154659336
Jesus wept.
How stupid are these people?
> > @Quincel said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > > @MikeSmithson said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > A bit of tactical voting and Lib Dems come top.
>
> > >
>
> > > Now, wouldn't that lob a large tomcat at the Brexit pigeons!
>
> >
>
> > Even second place would give Remainers something to shout about, even though the results can be picked apart a dozen ways to give talking points for all sides.
>
> >
>
> > Greens should defect to the LDs en masse (should but probably won't). This really is a single-issue election, and while overall remain/leave/no deal/etc vote shares will be analysed coming top or close with one party will matter a lot for narratives too.
>
>
>
> ------------------------
>
> Hard to see that happening when the EU elections a point of relative success for them (good locals and an impressive parliament seat win they have held onto, they are not that successful) and looking to build on that. All remainers piling behind the LDs makes some sense, but as you note it probably won't occur because of that partisan level loyalty.
>
> Clearly the Green Party is not going to say 'vote LD' but I would contend many of their regular supporters are pretty savvy people who will readily switch to the LDs for this vote if they see that as the best way to take some of the wind out of the BP's sails.
--------------------------------------
I expressed myself poorly - I don't think most of their supporters would do that. Not because they are not savvy, but because the Green brand is distinct from LD and if they were the types who cared about winning or making a point by backing someone else they probably would not be backing the Greens to begin with. That their poll ratings are also up, IIRC, if not as impressively, demonstrates that I think.
> Perhaps this polarisation is never going to be resolved - or, at least, not for a very, very long time.
>
> Ulsterization: the longer a single issue, for which no decisive majority to reach a settlement one way or the other, dominates all others, the more likely polarisation along the axis of that issue is to intensify, as the mushy centre that seeks messy compromises gradually disintegrates.
>
> Con/Lab = UUP/SDLP. QED.
--------------------------
What a depressing thought. One Ulster is more than enough. And then some.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
>
> So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas.
Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
> Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless.
>
> It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age.
>
> Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate.
>
> Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval.
>
> I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are.
>
> “Lying crooks the lot of them”
>
> You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
>
> You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
>
> (1) Lying crooks
>
> (2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
>
> Category no (2): commodity brokers who think they are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks. Until they meet me.
>
> Fair point.
>
> Still they’re better than LME brokers!
>
>
> No need to tell me. I worked on the International Tin Council litigation.
-----------------------------------
When I discover there was a thing called the International Tin Council I almost believe the conspiracy theorists about forces controlling the world, in the sense that there are so many things about the way the world works that I, and presumably others, have absolutely no clue about. Even as a commodities thing which collapsed, or whatever, it astounds me.
> Clearly the Green Party is not going to say 'vote LD' but I would contend many of their regular supporters are pretty savvy people who will readily switch to the LDs for this vote if they see that as the best way to take some of the wind out of the BP's sails.
Brexit is a second-order issue for Green supporters. They won't be switching to the LibDems.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1128405935154659336
>
> Jesus wept.
>
> How stupid are these people?
-------------------------
Well, Gavin Williamson had pride of place amongst them as a senior figure, and would be there now but for apparently being too shifty, not for his stupidity. Does that answer the question?
No. Anyone owning a house. They’re built on land after all.
Then there’s council tax, also meant to be based on market value. If market value is what government says it is, why should it not be raised for council tax purposes?
And what about a wider wealth tax? Why wouldn’t a government decide that your granny’s jewellery is worth something other than market value?
When a government starts thinking that it can decide that it can arbitrarily determine what something is worth, none of us can be confident of rights to property (in the widest sense).
By comparison every month from February 1991 back to May 1942 the cumulative twelve month total was over a million lost days - regularly over ten million lost days during the 1970s and 1980s.
So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ?
Data on page 18 of the spreadsheet here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/summaryoflabourmarketstatistics
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > >
> > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> > >
> > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
> >
> > Are there that many *really* committed voters on either side amongst the general population? Is there going to be mass mobilisation of both Leave and Remain supporters treating this is a second referendum by proxy, or will the Euro election be regarded as a relatively peripheral event as it has been in the past?
> >
> > Political journalists will clearly spend many hours trying to read the tea leaves whatever the result; the reality is that the Peterborough by-election could be more significant. If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
> >
> > Cue much pant-soiling in Essex, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, County Durham, the South Wales Valleys and a number of other areas.
>
> ------------------------------
> And yet if it happens it just polarises things in the same way they are now. No deal leavers will shit themselves and say it shows of course we must no deal or all leavers will be punished. Remainers will say a fascist party has won on the back of racist hysteria and so we must revoke by whatever means necessary and never again risk leaving, they won't believe BP would win a GE even then, just ruin the Tories and cost Labour some seats, to be sure.
May will never win No Deal ERG hardliners or Remainers, what she has to win are 50 or so Labour MPs from Leave seats to add to the 280 the Deal got last time to get a small majority. The Brexit Party taking Peterborough from Labour following a Brexit Party surge in the European elections in the North and Midlands could be just the ticket
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
> >
> > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
>
> Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas.
>
> Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today:
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1128185747964596224?s=19
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > >
> > > > It does occur to me that TBP’s strategy of carpeting the nation in election leaflets might backfire in boosting remainer turnout.
> > >
> > > What do people think turnout will be? The highest for the European elections was 38.5% but I could see it going comfortably above 40%.
> >
> > Will the EU finally manage to get the majority of it's electorate to vote in 2019?
> >
> > For over a quarter of a century, it's housed a parliament that has been elected on <50% turnout.
> >
> >
>
> So have most of the local councils in the UK
Is that intended as an endorsement?
And it certainly needed slaying. People talk about the UK being a divided country today. Those of us old enough to remember the 70s and late 60s know what a really divided country is.
> Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
It was really good.
I mean, I won the bet. But that was one nerve-wracking night!
Now I've bet on the LDs getting over 7.5 MEPs. Easy money, I think!
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1128408500969848832
--------------------------
I make plenty of overly confident seeming predictions. But I really mean it when I say I do not believe for one second that any party would abstain on this issue, no matter how tortured a position they have been attempting to hold.
> Here's some interesting economic data - in the twelve months to the end of March the cumulative number of working days lost to labour disputes was only 107 thousand - the lowest on record.
>
> By comparison every month from February 1991 back to May 1942 the cumulative twelve month total was over a million lost days - regularly over ten million lost days during the 1970s and 1980s.
>
> So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ?
>
> Data on page 18 of the spreadsheet here:
>
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/summaryoflabourmarketstatistics
>
I think the weakness of private sector unions is because the battles are won, as well as service industries harder to unionise.
Equal pay, holiday pay, security against unfare dismissal, health and safety. These are all enforced by law, often EU law. There simply is less need to be in a union compared to when I was born.
I have no issue with paying a tax based on market value.
I have a very strong objection to paying tax based on an arbitrary figure plucked out of the air which will bear no relation to my property’s market value.
I have an equally strong objection to having my savings expropriated which is what compensation at less than market value is.
> So why at a time of near full employment and after a decade of stagnant wages have strikes almost died out ?
>
> Do you really need to ask? Maggie slew the dragon. It's as simple as that.
>
> And it certainly needed slaying. People talk about the UK being a divided country today. Those of us old enough to remember the 70s and late 60s know what a really divided country is.
Thatcher would be appalled at what the Tory party has become.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
> > >
> > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
> >
> > Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas.
> >
> > Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
>
> Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today:
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1128185747964596224?s=19
Better to pause and think than spout off without thinking, he is a good candidate
> Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
You're a better man than I.
I turned it off after 20 minutes thanks to the silly phone-like animations on the daughter and watched some of the eurovision qualifiers.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
>
> It was really good.
Yes, he normally writes well even if a little too PC
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > If the Brexit Party can actually get over the finishing line in that one then it would potentially bring the political survival of all sitting MPs in strongly Leave-leaning seats into question (and according to estimates there are 100 constituencies which voted Leave in 2016 by greater margins than did Peterborough, and about another 60 where the proportion was a little lower but still in excess of 60%.)
> > > >
> > > > So what happens if BP limp home in third or fourth in Peterborough? Is Brexit dead?
> > >
> > > Unlikely, I know the BP are already canvassing in Peterborough and apparently getting a very positive reception in most areas.
> > >
> > > Given Peterborough voted 60% Leave a 10,000 Brexit Party majority in Peterborough on a 50% turnout is not impossible especially as they will have all the momentum from their likely win in the European elections a fortnight earlier
> >
> > Not sure if you caught this Pinteresque pause earlier today:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1128185747964596224?s=19
>
> Better to pause and think than spout off without thinking, he is a good candidate
He paused, and couldn't think of any. An empty vessel.
> Never mind Brexit, according to Russell Tovey's new drama 'Years and Years' just finished on BBC1 we could have a nuclear war between Trump's US and China in a few years and Emma Thompson will replace Farage as the new voice of populism
>
> Spoiler alert? I've got that recorded thank-you!
Will say no more
https://twitter.com/forchange_now/status/1128206865933000704?s=21