> @nico67 said: > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead . > > BP 26 > Lab 22 > Lib Dem 19 > Con 12 > Green 10 > UKIP 3
> @stodge said: > Where were you campaigning? Richmond on Thames? Round here it is all Brexit Party > > Have you been out canvassing for the Conservative Party or are you sitting this one out?
Unless you live in Richmond on Thames or Kensington and Chelsea or Westminster is there any point canvassing for the Tories in the European elections without a flack jacket? As far as I am aware the Tory campaign is entirely mailshot
If that is not a gammon next to Chuk on the leaflet, what is it?
'X is broken' is very lame and retro stuff; I think Cameron campaigned on 'society is broken.'
They aren't very good, and they haven't listened to PB telling them they aren't very good. If they had, they would have gone out and hired someone competent.
Once they realised they weren’t good it was too late to be interesting to someone good
Jeremy Hunt embarrassing himself in a desperate attempt to suck upto the Tory Membership.
Nothing worse than these born again Leavers who are so desperate to get the top job that they’ll say and do anything .
I’d rather have a Brexiter who nailed their colours to the mast before the vote as next PM.
For two reasons , an original Remainer will have to overcompensate to prove they’re now true believers , digging an even deeper hole for themselves , much as what’s happened to May who now realizes she promised what she couldn’t deliver .
Second , let a Brexiter own it which means we won’t have to hear the constant whining that if only a Brexiter was in charge it would all have turned out marvelous .
Pretty sure it will be a Boris landslide, so you get your wish.
Still feel pretty confident in saying/betting Boris won't make the final two.
Remember the MPs control the first half of the leadership contest, doesn't matter what the members want.
I bet* someone (? @Omnium ?) that Boris will come 5th
* If he loses he pays £10, if I lose I pay nothing. That’s the kind of bet I like ☺️
> I don't get this Boris thing. Maybe Sussex isn't typical, but I've lost count of the number of local party members (mostly Leavers) who have spontaneously said to me personally, or gone out of their way in meetings to say, that they can't abide him. Conversely, I haven't heard anyone say they support him.
I know a Tory member who voted Leave who said they would not want him as PM...
Change is basically reduced to sitting there on the chance that either Tory or Labour is broken by whatever is the resolution to Brexit. Which must still be a fair chance - unless anyone can map out a resolution to the Brexit crisis that enables both of the major parties to stay relatively united?
That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK.
Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
"If they can’t make progress under Euro elections voting system then they're surely doomed"
I don't think it would.
The LDs are quite rightly worried about HeidiAllenChukkaUK, but their concerns really are about their own party. Somehow they've disowned the great plus that was Clegg and embraced the great minus that is Cable.
The LDs now seem like a rather nagging aunt who'll leave you sixpence in her will on condition you become a monk. The other LDs (sorry Chukkas mob) are hopelessly confused, but much more inspiring.
There's room for three or four more strands of LD I think - none of the groupings seems ready to fill the LD space.
My problem is I always read 'change' as if it were part of a crossword clue, so I see 'Change UK' and think wtf does KU mean?
Kock Up.
That seems to be the most likely explanation for their website not being on the first five pages of Google results when you search for "Change UK". (I couldn't be bothered to search for any more.) I'm not making this up.
They also changed their Twitter handle but forgot to re-register the old one, so a pro-Brexit group registered it the following day.
The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before.
The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark.
> @Charles said: > Jeremy Hunt embarrassing himself in a desperate attempt to suck upto the Tory Membership. > > > > Nothing worse than these born again Leavers who are so desperate to get the top job that they’ll say and do anything . > > > > I’d rather have a Brexiter who nailed their colours to the mast before the vote as next PM. > > > > For two reasons , an original Remainer will have to overcompensate to prove they’re now true believers , digging an even deeper hole for themselves , much as what’s happened to May who now realizes she promised what she couldn’t deliver . > > > > Second , let a Brexiter own it which means we won’t have to hear the constant whining that if only a Brexiter was in charge it would all have turned out marvelous . > > Pretty sure it will be a Boris landslide, so you get your wish. > > Still feel pretty confident in saying/betting Boris won't make the final two. > > Remember the MPs control the first half of the leadership contest, doesn't matter what the members want. > > I bet* someone (? @Omnium ?) that Boris will come 5th > > * If he loses he pays £10, if I lose I pay nothing. That’s the kind of bet I like ☺️
Given the Tories trailed the Brexit Party in a Comres general election poll at the weekend and were 8% behind Labour but under Boris the same poll had the Tories leading the Brexit Party by 17% and just 1% behind Labour it may be the case that whether Boris wins the next Tory leadership race or not will determine whether the Tory Party stays a major force in British politics or not or is felled by Farage and Corbyn
I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
Unless you live in Richmond on Thames or Kensington and Chelsea or Westminster is there any point canvassing for the Tories in the European elections without a flack jacket? As far as I am aware the Tory campaign is entirely mailshot
I understand. In East Ham we've received literature from Labour, TBP and CUK. Stephen Timms and a number of Labour activists were in the High Street last Saturday but downplaying the Euro election and treating it more like a street canvass.
The LDs campaigned in Dagenham for the first time in many years.
> @nico67 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK. > > Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic.
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > > > That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK. > > > > Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote. > > Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic.
Yes , but in terms of vote share the pension vote between Macron and Le Pen will be in the formers favour . I expect Macron to just beat Le Pen in the EU elections .
> @Sandpit said: > My problem is I always read 'change' as if it were part of a crossword clue, so I see 'Change UK' and think wtf does KU mean? > > Kock Up. > > That seems to be the most likely explanation for their website not being on the first five pages of Google results when you search for "Change UK". (I couldn't be bothered to search for any more.) I'm not making this up. > > They also changed their Twitter handle but forgot to re-register the old one, so a pro-Brexit group registered it the following day. > > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/change-uk-twitter-brexit-account-independent-group-blue-tick-a8904721.html > > The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before. > > The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark.
> @HYUFD said: > > @nico67 said: > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
There is no LD surge. Why would there be? There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> @Omnium said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be? > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home. > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems. > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees. >
I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
> @Nigelb said: > > @Sandpit said: > > My problem is I always read 'change' as if it were part of a crossword clue, so I see 'Change UK' and think wtf does KU mean? > > > > Kock Up. > > > > That seems to be the most likely explanation for their website not being on the first five pages of Google results when you search for "Change UK". (I couldn't be bothered to search for any more.) I'm not making this up. > > > > They also changed their Twitter handle but forgot to re-register the old one, so a pro-Brexit group registered it the following day. > > > > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/change-uk-twitter-brexit-account-independent-group-blue-tick-a8904721.html > > > > The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before. > > > > The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark. > > Might it be possible to refer to him as Farage ? > > The whole ‘Nigel’ thing grates a bit. > >
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron .
> @nico67 said: > > @isam said: > > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead . > > > > > > > > BP 26 > > > > Lab 22 > > > > Lib Dem 19 > > > > Con 12 > > > > Green 10 > > > > UKIP 3 > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#National_poll_results > > I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
> @rcs1000 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
It comes from Le Pen going hard against immigration and globalisation and Macron's elitism and support from the rich rather than against the Euro and EU as she did in 2017
The latese BMG poll has Brexit Party on 26% - but given the hype of recent days . I suspect that a vote share below 25% would not be impressive for Farage.
> @nico67 said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > > > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning? > > That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron . >
Mme Pen gave a speech a few months back where she suggested that the European Union could become a great Christian bulwark against the Muslim hordes. (I paraphrase.)
I'm guessing she's probably not going to be in favour of Turkish accession.
The main take from the French Euro elections is that the mainstream centre right and centre left parties have both collapsed. There is a theory that their decision to ignore a referendum vote back in 2005 and over-rule the public in 2009, plus the subsequent travails of the EU, were the beginnings of that.
The collapse of the old centre is being mirrored here, in Italy and to some extent in Germany.
The polarisation we witness here is spreading throughout the continent.
> @justin124 said: > Probably a good 40% - 50% of those who vote in these elections will do so by post.
Yep - it's easy to fill in a form anytime in 2 weeks and post it through a postbox, it's another thing entirely to be walk to a polling station...
I'm not sure what percent of people have a postal vote but I suspect the percentage that have a postal vote and vote is virtually identical across all elections...
So far, I've had a Brexit leaflet delivered by hand and (after I sent my PV) the chunky Labour and slim Green leaflets today. Nothing from anyone else in Haslemere so far, even though this is really Con/LibDem country (coinicdentally I'm moving to Godalming, which is where my council seat is and is more mixed). the Labour leaflet at last makes a reasonable effort to put the party's position - we want to deliver a sensible compromise etc.
ChUK seem to be getting a lot of coverage considering their slender claim to it - much more than UKIP or the Greens, both of whom have more reasonable claim to it, though the media like anything new.
> @nico67 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > > > > > That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK. > > > > > > Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote. > > > > Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic. > > Yes , but in terms of vote share the pension vote between Macron and Le Pen will be in the formers favour . I expect Macron to just beat Le Pen in the EU elections .
In the first round Macron led Le Pen by less than 10% with 65 to 69 year olds with Fillon comfortably ahead with over 70s winning 45% amongst them.
Le Pen beat Macron with the middle aged, the young split between them
From the Guardian- 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
I don't think so. It's got eleven or twelve MPs and it'll show its quality over the next year or so and it'll also collect more recruits as Tories and Labour despair of their choices of Boris and Corbyn. I believe the future's bright and when the public get to see Heidi Allen more closely and regularly they'll be sold.
> @nico67 said: > > @Omnium said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one > > > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be? > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home. > > > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems. > > > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees. > > > > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
> @nico67 said: > > @isam said: > > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead . > > > > > > > > BP 26 > > > > Lab 22 > > > > Lib Dem 19 > > > > Con 12 > > > > Green 10 > > > > UKIP 3 > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#National_poll_results > > I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
Turnout could be an issue, but for the polls I think there are more basic sampling problems.
> @HYUFD said: > > It comes from Le Pen going hard against immigration and globalisation and Macron's elitism and support from the rich rather than against the Euro and EU as she did in 2017
The French voters were given a choice equivalent to Chuka v Tommy Robinson. I'd like to think that their relative views on the merits of EU membership would not be the deciding factor for most people on where to place their cross on the ballot.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll. > > > > > > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20 > > > > > > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning? > > > > That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron . > > > > Mme Pen gave a speech a few months back where she suggested that the European Union could become a great Christian bulwark against the Muslim hordes. (I paraphrase.) > > I'm guessing she's probably not going to be in favour of Turkish accession.
In that way, Le Pen mirrors the Orban's of the EU - and indeed, the majority of EU electorates judging by one of the most recent EU barometers.
Freedom of movement is great....immigration is not. The subtext seems pretty obvious.
'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
So the leaflet says they are for 'A people's vote' and 'Remain'.
Which is it? They don't mean the same thing, and holding another vote could end up with Leave winning again. What would they say then? "We didn't really mean it. We just wanted Remain."
Idiots (but that's pretty typical of them so far).
> @nico67 said: > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > >
No - not Tory Little Helpers- the people who helped bring misery to millions and tried to deny workers access to Employment Tribunals by introducing high fees.
> @justin124 said: > From the Guardian- > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' >
Why would this not end up in a court case, that would delay it for years?
> @Cyclefree said: > From the Guardian- > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers. > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Perhaps an attempt to rally the core Labour Momentum vote!
> @thecommissioner said: > The main take from the French Euro elections is that the mainstream centre right and centre left parties have both collapsed. There is a theory that their decision to ignore a referendum vote back in 2005 and over-rule the public in 2009, plus the subsequent travails of the EU, were the beginnings of that. > > The collapse of the old centre is being mirrored here, in Italy and to some extent in Germany. > > The polarisation we witness here is spreading throughout the continent.
It is more the collapse of the old centre left and old centre right, En Marche are centrist, it is more a reflection of the rise of the nationalist right countered by the liberal centre
> @Omnium said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @Omnium said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one > > > > > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be? > > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home. > > > > > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems. > > > > > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees. > > > > > > > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals . > > I think you've made my point for me.
Voting against something you fear more is part of all politics . It’s a fact of life . I’m generally Labour in terms of core values but have at times voted Lib Dem .
Most notably in 1997 in the Surbiton seat , Ed Davey won by 52 votes ! A Labour vote there you may aswell just flushed down the toilet .
Until the UK has proper PR then voters will often have to think tactically .
Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless.
It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age.
Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate.
Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval.
I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are.
“Lying crooks the lot of them”
You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
(1) Lying crooks
(2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
> @NickPalmer said: > So far, I've had a Brexit leaflet delivered by hand and (after I sent my PV) the chunky Labour and slim Green leaflets today. Nothing from anyone else in Haslemere so far, even though this is really Con/LibDem country (coinicdentally I'm moving to Godalming, which is where my council seat is and is more mixed). the Labour leaflet at last makes a reasonable effort to put the party's position - we want to deliver a sensible compromise etc. > > ChUK seem to be getting a lot of coverage considering their slender claim to it - much more than UKIP or the Greens, both of whom have more reasonable claim to it, though the media like anything new.
In defence of media coverage for ChangeUK they do have many more MPs than the Greens or UKIP. I can see why that would get them media coverage.
> @Cyclefree said: > From the Guardian- > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers. > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
Re Mike's post: I think if the Tiggers get 2 seats in the EU elections they'll breathe a sign of relief. It's a start and it's much better than zero. Their birth was always going to be harder than the Brexit Party's because of the very different nature of the parties and their relative positions in the political spectrum. I think the Tiggers' best hope would be a swift resolution to the Brexit impasse. If Brexit happens, or if there's a referendum, then they'll be in a better position to carve out a role and garner supporters.
> @justin124 said: > From the Guardian- > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' >
As long as I still get my deferred pension, bring it on!
> @nico67 said: > > @Omnium said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one > > > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be? > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home. > > > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems. > > > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees. > > > > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
The LDs already picked up a number of those in 2017 when May ran as a hard Brexiteer but in voteshare terms are still well below their 2005 and 2010 peak
> Probably a good 40% - 50% of those who vote in these elections will do so by post.
Yep - it's easy to fill in a form anytime in 2 weeks and post it through a postbox, it's another thing entirely to be walk to a polling station...
I'm not sure what percent of people have a postal vote but I suspect the percentage that have a postal vote and vote is virtually identical across all elections...
Turnout of those with postal votes will likely be a lot higher than on-the-day votes for minor (non-GE) elections. I’m sure Prof. Curtice has done some analysis of this, and I wonder if pollsters ask if someone has a postal vote?
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
As long as I still get my deferred pension, bring it on!
As long as you don’t mind it being smaller than it would otherwise be because part of your savings have been expropriated.
Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
There's some scope for remainers to co-ordinate their vote. There's an informal network of remainers where I live - largely created by the two big marches. I know there's only days left, but we are in touch enough to at least propose everyone gets behind the Lib Dems.
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
>
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
> @stodge said: > Unless you live in Richmond on Thames or Kensington and Chelsea or Westminster is there any point canvassing for the Tories in the European elections without a flack jacket? As far as I am aware the Tory campaign is entirely mailshot > > I understand. In East Ham we've received literature from Labour, TBP and CUK. Stephen Timms and a number of Labour activists were in the High Street last Saturday but downplaying the Euro election and treating it more like a street canvass. > > The LDs campaigned in Dagenham for the first time in many years.
I believe the Brexit Party are actively campaigning with rallies in Leave areas and also I understand canvassing Peterborough for the by election.
The LDs too and Greens are also active and the CUK bus is now out, the 2 main parties are largely trying to downplay the damage they will suffer and mainly doing mailshots
> @nico67 said: > > @Omnium said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @Omnium said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one > > > > > > > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be? > > > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home. > > > > > > > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems. > > > > > > > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees. > > > > > > > > > > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals . > > > > I think you've made my point for me. > > Voting against something you fear more is part of all politics . It’s a fact of life . I’m generally Labour in terms of core values but have at times voted Lib Dem . > > Most notably in 1997 in the Surbiton seat , Ed Davey won by 52 votes ! A Labour vote there you may aswell just flushed down the toilet . > > Until the UK has proper PR then voters will often have to think tactically .
Sure. The trouble for the LDs is that there is no positive case.
If asked I could whip up a (by my standards) ok campaign for Corbyn. I could whip up a better one for a tub of lard. Much better still for (say) Boris And something really almost worthwhile for say Rory Stewart.
I wouldn't know where to start with any LD politician.
> @nico67 said: > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > >
I suspect that too many lefties still haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the Coalition for the Labour vote to implode, and people who are enthusiastic about the Greens but think they can never win under FPTP positively gravitate towards them at Euro elections.
The Lib Dems *might* come second, although when we look at the constant shifts in the polls we also have to bear in mind what proportion of those who could be arsed to vote in the first place may already have done so by postal ballot (the Tory and Ukip votes might just be slightly less decimated than everyone's expecting, for the same reason.)
Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless.
It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age.
Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate.
Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval.
I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are.
“Lying crooks the lot of them”
You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
(1) Lying crooks
(2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
Category no (2): commodity brokers who think they are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks. Until they meet me.
> @Benpointer said: > > @nico67 said: > > > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead . > > > > > > BP 26 > > > Lab 22 > > > Lib Dem 19 > > > Con 12 > > > Green 10 > > > UKIP 3 > > > > Wow, is that right? > > > > LibDem/Green 29%. > > BP/UKIP 29% > > What would LibDem/Green/SNP/PC versus BP/UKIP/DUP be?
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > From the Guardian- > > > > > > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election. > > > > > > > > > > > > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.' > > > > > > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers. > > > > > > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions. > > > > Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU. > > I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
> @nico67 said: > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > >
What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
> @Dadge said: > Re Mike's post: I think if the Tiggers get 2 seats in the EU elections they'll breathe a sign of relief. It's a start and it's much better than zero. Their birth was always going to be harder than the Brexit Party's because of the very different nature of the parties and their relative positions in the political spectrum. I think the Tiggers' best hope would be a swift resolution to the Brexit impasse. If Brexit happens, or if there's a referendum, then they'll be in a better position to carve out a role and garner supporters.
So they’d get Gavin Esler in London and Ashworth (expelled Tory MEP in his 70s) in the South East.
> @Recidivist said: > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > > There's some scope for remainers to co-ordinate their vote. There's an informal network of remainers where I live - largely created by the two big marches. I know there's only days left, but we are in touch enough to at least propose everyone gets behind the Lib Dems.
Keep up the good work . I’m imploring all my Labour friends to vote Lib Dem aswell . Labour must be beaten into third place . After their ridiculous spin of the Council Elections they need a message even clueless Corbyn and his sidekick Milne can’t spin.
> @Dadge said: > > @nico67 said: > > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems. > > > > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose. > > > > > > What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
Less than 50% nowadays. Latest poll suggests Leave is at around 44%
Here in Remainerville, west London I've had just two leaflets so far - from the Brexit Party and UKIP. An exercise in trolling, rather than prospecting for votes, I'd say.
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
Forgive me for being somewhat late to these discussions, so I may have missed this, but can someone tell me exactly *why* the Tories are bothering to fight these elections in the first place? If I had been their Chief Strategist I would have addressed the Great British Public in the following general terms: "These elections are not real elections - they are a legal necessity imposed by Brussels. We are far too busy sorting out the Brexit negotiations for you, and we can't be bothered to waste the time or the money on these irrelevant pettifogging contests, so we are going to sit them out and we advise you all to do the same. Anyway, the seats are going to be abolished in a few weeks, so what's the point?"
As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?"
And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone.
Excellent timing finally by May, after the Brexit Party likely win the European elections and the same week as the Peterborough by election, if the Brexit Party take it from Labour she should hold the vote on the Friday or the folloeing week to concentrate the minds of Labour MPs from Leave seats
> @Drutt said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
Con is actually 12% in this poll. Their residual vote is likely to be Remain inclined.
> @augustus_carp said: > Forgive me for being somewhat late to these discussions, so I may have missed this, but can someone tell me exactly *why* the Tories are bothering to fight these elections in the first place? If I had been their Chief Strategist I would have addressed the Great British Public in the following general terms: "These elections are not real elections - they are a legal necessity imposed by Brussels. We are far too busy sorting out the Brexit negotiations for you, and we can't be bothered to waste the time or the money on these irrelevant pettifogging contests, so we are going to sit them out and we advise you all to do the same. Anyway, the seats are going to be abolished in a few weeks, so what's the point?" > > As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?" > > And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone. > > > (But it is rather a lot of fun to watch!)
If we stay in the EU - which is still quite likely, at least for a while - then having some MEPs is actually quite important for a governing party. The Tories couldn’t afford to ignore these elections.
> @justin124 said: > > @Drutt said: > > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22) > > Con is actually 12% in this poll. Their residual vote is likely to be Remain inclined.
My wife and I voted for our party and we still want to leave but not no deal
'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
How do you think our diplomatic influence will be impacted when all those nice sovereign funds have their assets swiped?
> @IanB2 said: > > @augustus_carp said: > > Forgive me for being somewhat late to these discussions, so I may have missed this, but can someone tell me exactly *why* the Tories are bothering to fight these elections in the first place? If I had been their Chief Strategist I would have addressed the Great British Public in the following general terms: "These elections are not real elections - they are a legal necessity imposed by Brussels. We are far too busy sorting out the Brexit negotiations for you, and we can't be bothered to waste the time or the money on these irrelevant pettifogging contests, so we are going to sit them out and we advise you all to do the same. Anyway, the seats are going to be abolished in a few weeks, so what's the point?" > > > > As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?" > > > > And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone. > > > > > > (But it is rather a lot of fun to watch!) > > If we stay in the EU - which is still quite likely, at least for a while - then having some MEPs is actually quite important for a governing party. The Tories couldn’t afford to ignore these elections.
The longer we stay in the EU ironically the better the Brexit Party will do, the Tories must not plan to stay in the EU with MEPs etc for more than a few months if they are to hold back Farage,
> @Drutt said: > > @OblitusSumMe said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON*** > > > > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800 > > > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. > > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Change UK is chock full of what Alastair Meeks calls 'dull competence' - the sort of modern day 'officer class' of politician that we want doing things and that the arrival of the ghastly lower-middle class Brexit wave threatens to sweep away. I'm glad CHUK has shown once again that that is a total myth, and that all these people had going for them was a veneer of competence provided by big teams, plentiful finance, and media approval. Strip that away and these people are clueless.
It would - almost - be worth having Farage as PM to watch him enact his particular brand of “competence”. I suspect that we would be looking back at May’s Premiership as a golden age.
Sorry but I have to totally disagree. Not all PMs are of the Thatcher mould - poring over red boxes till 1am. Cameron just made announcements most of the time and flew by the seat of his pants. And he was fine as far as it goes. I'm neither expecting, nor hoping for PM Farage, but he's a relatively good communicator, and in terms of being 'up to it' I don't see that huge gulf. In terms of his legislative agenda that's a different debate.
Nothing in Farage’s past suggests any sort of competence at the actual mechanics of government. Quite the opposite. He is a good communicator. But he shines because so many other politicians are so bad at at it. And because he is prepared to say whatever will get him the applause and the approval.
I see him and I see the commodity broker he used to be. I have investigated a number of such people. Lying crooks the lot of them. Farage acts, talks and behaves like them and I am afraid when I see him in action I see just another example of the sorts of people I have so enjoyed investigating over the years. I realise that this is a very particular perspective. But there you are.
“Lying crooks the lot of them”
You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
(1) Lying crooks
(2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
Category no (2): commodity brokers who think they are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks. Until they meet me.
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
> > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
> >
> > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
> >
> >
>
> What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
Less than 50% nowadays. Latest poll suggests Leave is at around 44%
And not all Leavers are of Farage's No Deal extremist persuasion; still quite a few who favour Farage's former position of Norway or similar.
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
They don’t intend to pay any sort of market value, even if it goes down from now.
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
'all' being all landowners presumably?
No.
Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.
Comments
> Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead .
>
> BP 26
> Lab 22
> Lib Dem 19
> Con 12
> Green 10
> UKIP 3
Wow, is that right?
LibDem/Green 29%.
BP/UKIP 29%
> Where were you campaigning? Richmond on Thames? Round here it is all Brexit Party
>
> Have you been out canvassing for the Conservative Party or are you sitting this one out?
Unless you live in Richmond on Thames or Kensington and Chelsea or Westminster is there any point canvassing for the Tories in the European elections without a flack jacket? As far as I am aware the Tory campaign is entirely mailshot
Shy voter wouldn’t explain this given these are online polling .
Still, they’ve got Chappers
Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
* If he loses he pays £10, if I lose I pay nothing. That’s the kind of bet I like ☺️
> Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
>
> Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
>
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK.
Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
"If they can’t make progress under Euro elections voting system then they're surely doomed"
I don't think it would.
The LDs are quite rightly worried about HeidiAllenChukkaUK, but their concerns really are about their own party. Somehow they've disowned the great plus that was Clegg and embraced the great minus that is Cable.
The LDs now seem like a rather nagging aunt who'll leave you sixpence in her will on condition you become a monk. The other LDs (sorry Chukkas mob) are hopelessly confused, but much more inspiring.
There's room for three or four more strands of LD I think - none of the groupings seems ready to fill the LD space.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/change-uk-twitter-brexit-account-independent-group-blue-tick-a8904721.html
The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before.
The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark.
> Jeremy Hunt embarrassing himself in a desperate attempt to suck upto the Tory Membership.
>
>
>
> Nothing worse than these born again Leavers who are so desperate to get the top job that they’ll say and do anything .
>
>
>
> I’d rather have a Brexiter who nailed their colours to the mast before the vote as next PM.
>
>
>
> For two reasons , an original Remainer will have to overcompensate to prove they’re now true believers , digging an even deeper hole for themselves , much as what’s happened to May who now realizes she promised what she couldn’t deliver .
>
>
>
> Second , let a Brexiter own it which means we won’t have to hear the constant whining that if only a Brexiter was in charge it would all have turned out marvelous .
>
> Pretty sure it will be a Boris landslide, so you get your wish.
>
> Still feel pretty confident in saying/betting Boris won't make the final two.
>
> Remember the MPs control the first half of the leadership contest, doesn't matter what the members want.
>
> I bet* someone (? @Omnium ?) that Boris will come 5th
>
> * If he loses he pays £10, if I lose I pay nothing. That’s the kind of bet I like ☺️
Given the Tories trailed the Brexit Party in a Comres general election poll at the weekend and were 8% behind Labour but under Boris the same poll had the Tories leading the Brexit Party by 17% and just 1% behind Labour it may be the case that whether Boris wins the next Tory leadership race or not will determine whether the Tory Party stays a major force in British politics or not or is felled by Farage and Corbyn
> Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
>
>
The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
> Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead .
>
>
>
> BP 26
>
> Lab 22
>
> Lib Dem 19
>
> Con 12
>
> Green 10
>
> UKIP 3
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#National_poll_results
I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
> https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1128361192462925824
No, because this is the withdrawal agreement.
The LDs campaigned in Dagenham for the first time in many years.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> >
> > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
>
> That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK.
>
> Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> > >
> > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
> >
> > That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK.
> >
> > Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
>
> Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic.
Yes , but in terms of vote share the pension vote between Macron and Le Pen will be in the formers favour . I expect Macron to just beat Le Pen in the EU elections .
> My problem is I always read 'change' as if it were part of a crossword clue, so I see 'Change UK' and think wtf does KU mean?
>
> Kock Up.
>
> That seems to be the most likely explanation for their website not being on the first five pages of Google results when you search for "Change UK". (I couldn't be bothered to search for any more.) I'm not making this up.
>
> They also changed their Twitter handle but forgot to re-register the old one, so a pro-Brexit group registered it the following day.
>
> https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/change-uk-twitter-brexit-account-independent-group-blue-tick-a8904721.html
>
> The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before.
>
> The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark.
Might it be possible to refer to him as Farage ?
The whole ‘Nigel’ thing grates a bit.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> >
> >
>
> The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
>
> Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
>
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
>
> There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
> There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
>
> This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
>
> I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
>
I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
> > @Sandpit said:
> > My problem is I always read 'change' as if it were part of a crossword clue, so I see 'Change UK' and think wtf does KU mean?
> >
> > Kock Up.
> >
> > That seems to be the most likely explanation for their website not being on the first five pages of Google results when you search for "Change UK". (I couldn't be bothered to search for any more.) I'm not making this up.
> >
> > They also changed their Twitter handle but forgot to re-register the old one, so a pro-Brexit group registered it the following day.
> >
> > https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/change-uk-twitter-brexit-account-independent-group-blue-tick-a8904721.html
> >
> > The whole thing has just been one shambles after another. It doesn't appear they have anyone working for them who’s ever been involved with a political campaign before.
> >
> > The contrast with Nigel’s seriously impressive Brexit Party startup effort is vast and stark.
>
> Might it be possible to refer to him as Farage ?
>
> The whole ‘Nigel’ thing grates a bit.
>
>
It Niggles?
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> >
> > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
>
> Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron .
> > @isam said:
> > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead .
> >
> >
> >
> > BP 26
> >
> > Lab 22
> >
> > Lib Dem 19
> >
> > Con 12
> >
> > Green 10
> >
> > UKIP 3
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#National_poll_results
>
> I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
I won't be voting.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> >
> > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
>
> Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
It comes from Le Pen going hard against immigration and globalisation and Macron's elitism and support from the rich rather than against the Euro and EU as she did in 2017
> ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
>
> https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> > >
> > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
> >
> > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
>
> That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron .
>
Mme Pen gave a speech a few months back where she suggested that the European Union could become a great Christian bulwark against the Muslim hordes. (I paraphrase.)
I'm guessing she's probably not going to be in favour of Turkish accession.
The collapse of the old centre is being mirrored here, in Italy and to some extent in Germany.
The polarisation we witness here is spreading throughout the continent.
> Probably a good 40% - 50% of those who vote in these elections will do so by post.
Yep - it's easy to fill in a form anytime in 2 weeks and post it through a postbox, it's another thing entirely to be walk to a polling station...
I'm not sure what percent of people have a postal vote but I suspect the percentage that have a postal vote and vote is virtually identical across all elections...
ChUK seem to be getting a lot of coverage considering their slender claim to it - much more than UKIP or the Greens, both of whom have more reasonable claim to it, though the media like anything new.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> > > >
> > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
> > >
> > > That poll is one of the older ones . The newer ones have it neck and neck . Bear in mind in France you have almost the reverse situation to the UK.
> > >
> > > Older people in France are much more pro EU than in the UK. Indeed during the Presidential election Macron trounced Le Pen in over 65s . That demographic is much more likely to vote.
> >
> > Fillon actually won over 65s in the first round and there is no second round in the EU elections so French pensioners will vote Les Republicains not En Marche. Pensioners vote for conservatives in France just as they do in the UK even if they are less Eurosceptic.
>
> Yes , but in terms of vote share the pension vote between Macron and Le Pen will be in the formers favour . I expect Macron to just beat Le Pen in the EU elections .
In the first round Macron led Le Pen by less than 10% with 65 to 69 year olds with Fillon comfortably ahead with over 70s winning 45% amongst them.
Le Pen beat Macron with the middle aged, the young split between them
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
> >
> > There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
> > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
> >
> > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
> >
> > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> >
>
> I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
I think you've made my point for me.
> > @isam said:
> > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead .
> >
> >
> >
> > BP 26
> >
> > Lab 22
> >
> > Lib Dem 19
> >
> > Con 12
> >
> > Green 10
> >
> > UKIP 3
> >
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom#National_poll_results
>
> I think the problems are going to be turnout . It depends how much weight is given to past voting . I haven’t been through all the methodologies yet. Very hard to be sure what the turnout will be and this makes a big difference .
Turnout could be an issue, but for the polls I think there are more basic sampling problems.
>
> It comes from Le Pen going hard against immigration and globalisation and Macron's elitism and support from the rich rather than against the Euro and EU as she did in 2017
The French voters were given a choice equivalent to Chuka v Tommy Robinson. I'd like to think that their relative views on the merits of EU membership would not be the deciding factor for most people on where to place their cross on the ballot.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @rcs1000 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > Le Pen's Party takes the lead in new French European elections poll.
> > > >
> > > > Nationalists could now win in France, Italy and the UK, 3 of the EU's 5 largest countries
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1128370651297980417?s=20
> > >
> > > Do you think their jump in the polls is the result of their newly pro-EU positioning?
> >
> > That’s a good point . Le Pen ditched her Frexit after 2017 as it cost her big time . As I alluded to earlier older people in France are much more pro EU . When it came to the run off they took fright and went hugely to Macron .
> >
>
> Mme Pen gave a speech a few months back where she suggested that the European Union could become a great Christian bulwark against the Muslim hordes. (I paraphrase.)
>
> I'm guessing she's probably not going to be in favour of Turkish accession.
In that way, Le Pen mirrors the Orban's of the EU - and indeed, the majority of EU electorates judging by one of the most recent EU barometers.
Freedom of movement is great....immigration is not. The subtext seems pretty obvious.
And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Which is it? They don't mean the same thing, and holding another vote could end up with Leave winning again. What would they say then? "We didn't really mean it. We just wanted Remain."
Idiots (but that's pretty typical of them so far).
> Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
>
> Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
>
>
No - not Tory Little Helpers- the people who helped bring misery to millions and tried to deny workers access to Employment Tribunals by introducing high fees.
> From the Guardian-
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
Why would this not end up in a court case, that would delay it for years?
> From the Guardian-
>
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
>
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Perhaps an attempt to rally the core Labour Momentum vote!
> The main take from the French Euro elections is that the mainstream centre right and centre left parties have both collapsed. There is a theory that their decision to ignore a referendum vote back in 2005 and over-rule the public in 2009, plus the subsequent travails of the EU, were the beginnings of that.
>
> The collapse of the old centre is being mirrored here, in Italy and to some extent in Germany.
>
> The polarisation we witness here is spreading throughout the continent.
It is more the collapse of the old centre left and old centre right, En Marche are centrist, it is more a reflection of the rise of the nationalist right countered by the liberal centre
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @Omnium said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
> > >
> > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
> > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
> > >
> > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
> > >
> > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> > >
> >
> > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
>
> I think you've made my point for me.
Voting against something you fear more is part of all politics . It’s a fact of life . I’m generally Labour in terms of core values but have at times voted Lib Dem .
Most notably in 1997 in the Surbiton seat , Ed Davey won by 52 votes ! A Labour vote there you may aswell just flushed down the toilet .
Until the UK has proper PR then voters will often have to think tactically .
You’re being uncharacteristically unfair @Cyclefree
You’ve got two types of commodity brokers
(1) Lying crooks
(2) Commodity brokers that are smart enough to get away with being lying crooks
> So far, I've had a Brexit leaflet delivered by hand and (after I sent my PV) the chunky Labour and slim Green leaflets today. Nothing from anyone else in Haslemere so far, even though this is really Con/LibDem country (coinicdentally I'm moving to Godalming, which is where my council seat is and is more mixed). the Labour leaflet at last makes a reasonable effort to put the party's position - we want to deliver a sensible compromise etc.
>
> ChUK seem to be getting a lot of coverage considering their slender claim to it - much more than UKIP or the Greens, both of whom have more reasonable claim to it, though the media like anything new.
In defence of media coverage for ChangeUK they do have many more MPs than the Greens or UKIP. I can see why that would get them media coverage.
> From the Guardian-
>
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
>
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
> From the Guardian-
> 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
As long as I still get my deferred pension, bring it on!
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
> >
> > There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
> > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
> >
> > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
> >
> > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> >
>
> I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
The LDs already picked up a number of those in 2017 when May ran as a hard Brexiteer but in voteshare terms are still well below their 2005 and 2010 peak
> Unless you live in Richmond on Thames or Kensington and Chelsea or Westminster is there any point canvassing for the Tories in the European elections without a flack jacket? As far as I am aware the Tory campaign is entirely mailshot
>
> I understand. In East Ham we've received literature from Labour, TBP and CUK. Stephen Timms and a number of Labour activists were in the High Street last Saturday but downplaying the Euro election and treating it more like a street canvass.
>
> The LDs campaigned in Dagenham for the first time in many years.
I believe the Brexit Party are actively campaigning with rallies in Leave areas and also I understand canvassing Peterborough for the by election.
The LDs too and Greens are also active and the CUK bus is now out, the 2 main parties are largely trying to downplay the damage they will suffer and mainly doing mailshots
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @Omnium said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > > Just imagine if the papers actually mentioned the Lib Dem surge instead of the obsession with the BP.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The Evening Standard does but a surge to 1st by a new party more interesting than a surge to 3rd by an established one
> > > >
> > > > There is no LD surge. Why would there be?
> > > > There IS a huge protest vote trying to find a home.
> > > >
> > > > This is disguising the following; a complete dismantling of the Tory vote, UKIP are toast, and Labour have real problems.
> > > >
> > > > I think it may even be possible that the LDs are losing their core votes, just disguised by the huge unwashed swathes of voting refugees.
> > > >
> > >
> > > I think you’re downplaying the Lib Dems . They have good organization and when a hard Brexiter takes over the Tories they’re well placed in those traditional Tory Lib Dem marginals .
> >
> > I think you've made my point for me.
>
> Voting against something you fear more is part of all politics . It’s a fact of life . I’m generally Labour in terms of core values but have at times voted Lib Dem .
>
> Most notably in 1997 in the Surbiton seat , Ed Davey won by 52 votes ! A Labour vote there you may aswell just flushed down the toilet .
>
> Until the UK has proper PR then voters will often have to think tactically .
Sure. The trouble for the LDs is that there is no positive case.
If asked I could whip up a (by my standards) ok campaign for Corbyn.
I could whip up a better one for a tub of lard.
Much better still for (say) Boris
And something really almost worthwhile for say Rory Stewart.
I wouldn't know where to start with any LD politician.
> Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
>
> Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
>
>
I suspect that too many lefties still haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the Coalition for the Labour vote to implode, and people who are enthusiastic about the Greens but think they can never win under FPTP positively gravitate towards them at Euro elections.
The Lib Dems *might* come second, although when we look at the constant shifts in the polls we also have to bear in mind what proportion of those who could be arsed to vote in the first place may already have done so by postal ballot (the Tory and Ukip votes might just be slightly less decimated than everyone's expecting, for the same reason.)
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Another great poll for the Lib Dems this time by BMG .The BP is ahead but we are seeing huge differences in their lead .
>
> >
>
> > BP 26
>
> > Lab 22
>
> > Lib Dem 19
>
> > Con 12
>
> > Green 10
>
> > UKIP 3
>
>
>
> Wow, is that right?
>
>
>
> LibDem/Green 29%.
>
> BP/UKIP 29%
>
> What would LibDem/Green/SNP/PC versus BP/UKIP/DUP be?
Well within the margin of error.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > From the Guardian-
>
> >
>
> > 'The Financial Times is reporting that Labour is planning to nationalise Britain’s energy networks at below market value, and would do so shortly after winning a general election.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A new paper by the opposition party said shareholders would be compensated, but not necessarily at market prices. Deductions would be made to take account of “asset stripping since privatisation”, state subsidies since the 1980s and pension fund deficits, according to the FT which said Corbyn will outline the plans on Thursday.'
>
> >
>
> > That’s a tasty court case to the ECHR for lots of lucky lawyers.
>
> >
>
> > And a lot of misery for people saving for their pensions.
>
>
>
> Plus the fact that the owners are French, German and Spanish should make for a very interesting meeting for Corbyn with the EU.
>
> I have no doubt that the EU will seek to protect their interests in any agreement with the UK to cover off the risks of a Corbyn government.
Maybe also a ploy to encourage the share prices to plummet with a view to picking them up on the cheap.
> Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
>
> Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
>
>
What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
> Re Mike's post: I think if the Tiggers get 2 seats in the EU elections they'll breathe a sign of relief. It's a start and it's much better than zero. Their birth was always going to be harder than the Brexit Party's because of the very different nature of the parties and their relative positions in the political spectrum. I think the Tiggers' best hope would be a swift resolution to the Brexit impasse. If Brexit happens, or if there's a referendum, then they'll be in a better position to carve out a role and garner supporters.
So they’d get Gavin Esler in London and Ashworth (expelled Tory MEP in his 70s) in the South East.
> Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
>
>
>
> Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
>
> There's some scope for remainers to co-ordinate their vote. There's an informal network of remainers where I live - largely created by the two big marches. I know there's only days left, but we are in touch enough to at least propose everyone gets behind the Lib Dems.
Keep up the good work . I’m imploring all my Labour friends to vote Lib Dem aswell . Labour must be beaten into third place . After their ridiculous spin of the Council Elections they need a message even clueless Corbyn and his sidekick Milne can’t spin.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Can Greens and Lab Remainers just back the Lib Dems.
> >
> > Wouldn’t it be marvelous for us Remainers to see the walking gob lose.
> >
> >
>
> What does this mean? 50% of voters are Leavers, so it doesn't matter how Remainers co-ordinate themselves, there's nothing they can do to make Farage lose.
Less than 50% nowadays. Latest poll suggests Leave is at around 44%
Imagine if land taxes are not based on market value but on whatever the government says it is. For Labour tax purposes, market values can go up.
A cheery thought for us all.
As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?"
And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone.
(But it is rather a lot of fun to watch!)
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1128387104797528065
And the Tories just 7 points behind the LDs!!
> https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1128387792692813825
Excellent timing finally by May, after the Brexit Party likely win the European elections and the same week as the Peterborough by election, if the Brexit Party take it from Labour she should hold the vote on the Friday or the folloeing week to concentrate the minds of Labour MPs from Leave seats
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> >
> > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
>
> That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
Oh wait that's when Mike's on holiday.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > >
> > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> >
> > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
>
> In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
Con is actually 12% in this poll. Their residual vote is likely to be Remain inclined.
> Forgive me for being somewhat late to these discussions, so I may have missed this, but can someone tell me exactly *why* the Tories are bothering to fight these elections in the first place? If I had been their Chief Strategist I would have addressed the Great British Public in the following general terms: "These elections are not real elections - they are a legal necessity imposed by Brussels. We are far too busy sorting out the Brexit negotiations for you, and we can't be bothered to waste the time or the money on these irrelevant pettifogging contests, so we are going to sit them out and we advise you all to do the same. Anyway, the seats are going to be abolished in a few weeks, so what's the point?"
>
> As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?"
>
> And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone.
>
>
> (But it is rather a lot of fun to watch!)
If we stay in the EU - which is still quite likely, at least for a while - then having some MEPs is actually quite important for a governing party. The Tories couldn’t afford to ignore these elections.
> > @Drutt said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > > >
> > > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> > >
> > > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
> >
> > In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
>
> Con is actually 12% in this poll. Their residual vote is likely to be Remain inclined.
My wife and I voted for our party and we still want to leave but not no deal
> > @augustus_carp said:
> > Forgive me for being somewhat late to these discussions, so I may have missed this, but can someone tell me exactly *why* the Tories are bothering to fight these elections in the first place? If I had been their Chief Strategist I would have addressed the Great British Public in the following general terms: "These elections are not real elections - they are a legal necessity imposed by Brussels. We are far too busy sorting out the Brexit negotiations for you, and we can't be bothered to waste the time or the money on these irrelevant pettifogging contests, so we are going to sit them out and we advise you all to do the same. Anyway, the seats are going to be abolished in a few weeks, so what's the point?"
> >
> > As it is, they have allowed a situation to arise in which it seems about 90% of the population are thinking to themselves, "How much do I hate the Tories? And who can I vote for who is going to give them the biggest humiliation?"
> >
> > And that's what's happening: it's not a Brexit orgasm or a disguised Lib Dem surge or a sophisticated Labour campaign, each struggling for supremacy - no, it's an arse-kicking party for the Conservative and Unionist Party, with no long term benefits for anyone.
> >
> >
> > (But it is rather a lot of fun to watch!)
>
> If we stay in the EU - which is still quite likely, at least for a while - then having some MEPs is actually quite important for a governing party. The Tories couldn’t afford to ignore these elections.
The longer we stay in the EU ironically the better the Brexit Party will do, the Tories must not plan to stay in the EU with MEPs etc for more than a few months if they are to hold back Farage,
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > ***LD SURGE KLAXON***
> > >
> > > https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800
> >
> > That poll would imply a large swing from Leave to Remain. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
>
> In 2014 leave was scoring 27% (UKIP 27). All other parties were remain. In 2019 leave scores 63% (BXP 26, CON 19, UKIP 3 and, generously, LAB 22)
Ahem. CON 12, obvs. But that could be a fairly remainy 12.
Still they’re better than LME brokers!
And not all Leavers are of Farage's No Deal extremist persuasion; still quite a few who favour Farage's former position of Norway or similar.
Anyone with a freehold property for starters.
Indirectly it will impact so many people, especially the poorest in society.