> @Roger said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20 > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders...... > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
Rather too reminiscent of the Soviets telling their peasants and proletariat that they were internationalist in the absence of any particular evidence? Part of Labour's base has that view, part doesn't, I suspect.
> @old_labour said: > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
"We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
"We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
Where do I sign?
I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that.
> @old_labour said: > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
We have to live in the world as it is today, not as it was in the past. Brexit is all about looking backwards, you are making the same mistake.
This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
> > Based on the local election results I'd suggest it's very likely that the LibDems will beat Labour in the South East region - which was your question - and hence be the better choice to reduce the Brexit Party's chances of getting more seats. > > As to which outcome leads to which Brexit conclusion, who can say? I saw someone recently argue that the better the Brexit Party does, the less likely is Brexit. All we can do as voters is ensure that the viewpoint we wish to express is represented by the results of the election as best as possible.
Last time Labour got 25% nationally and 15% in S. East. Lib Dems got 7% nationally and 8% in S. East. This time Lib Dems seem to be polling better and Labour worse.
I suspect it will be close between them in the S. East but would agree that Lib Dems are more likely to be ahead. Agree with your last point. I'll ponder some more.
> @El_Capitano said: > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections. > > I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence. > > But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
Particularly as the detail of Miliband and Balls's economic policy at the time strongly suggests the bigger picture in terms of spending cuts including on benefits would have been broadly similar had that Labour Party got into power in 2010, on its own or in coalition.
I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
Would you vote Tory if your vote was the difference between the Lib Dems coming second and third?
The Tories and Liberal Democrats are the least palatable choices for me of the main parties, so no, and anyhow the differences between them have been somewhat exaggerated in light of the coalition years.
Mr. Streeter, we'd remain subject to EU rules with no say over them due to the backstop, and no way to leave the backstop without EU agreement. That's not exactly tungsten-tipped.
Staying in the customs union is neither hard nor soft Brexit, but bloody stupid.
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
>
> Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
>
> Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
I have always supported PR, but the major parties oppose it for obvious reasons. They would also apply if a BAME party was surging.
The problem is that everyone who advocates for a change is the voting system, does so from a clearly and nakedly partisan standpoint - they want to change things primarily to benefit themselves.
The only chance of a change to FPTP for Parliamentary elections, is as part of a much wider constitutional convention.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show. > > > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21 > > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd) > > Liz looks like she's become unhinged. > > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats
Now if only the Greens and LibDems could have got together, we'd have a race on our hands.
I have no wish to return to a pre-industrial age, so no Green vote from me although I voted for them in the 2009 Euros in the hope that a poor Labour showing would shift Gordon Brown out of Number 10.
> @old_labour said: > > @old_labour said: > > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > > > > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats > > > > Now if only the Greens and LibDems could have got together, we'd have a race on our hands. > > I have no wish to return to a pre-industrial age, so no Green vote from me although I voted for them in the 2009 Euros in the hope that a poor Labour showing would shift Gordon Brown out of Number 10.
The tactical reasons for voting LibDem or Green are stronger now than then.
Mr. Streeter, we'd remain subject to EU rules with no say over them due to the backstop, and no way to leave the backstop without EU agreement. That's not exactly tungsten-tipped.
Staying in the customs union is neither hard nor soft Brexit, but bloody stupid.
Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not the correct definition.
Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
Good on someone for having the guts to suggest it. Chancellors of all colours have put this in the “too difficult” box for decades, despite the massive savings in bureaucracy that would result from it.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Roger said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20 > > > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders...... > > > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia" > > Rather too reminiscent of the Soviets telling their peasants and proletariat that they were internationalist in the absence of any particular evidence? Part of Labour's base has that view, part doesn't, I suspect.
Whichever way, it has to be better than the current slogan of ...err, what exactly? Have heard precisely nowt.
> @Jonathan said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21 > > > > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd) > > > > Liz looks like she's become unhinged. > > > > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron > > The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
Indeed. The cookery book casually open on a page in the absence of any evidence of cooking, and the vase, plus a kitchen that looks like its just had its monthly clean.
This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
> @Benpointer said: > > @rkrkrk said: > > > Thanks. My primary goal is to avoid a hard Brexit. > > > My fear is the lib dems and co. will get their second referendum, lose it and then I think the country is forced into a very damaging hard Brexit. > > That's a pretty unlikely sequence of events you're afraid of.
It seems quite likely to me, unfortunately.
1. Another referendum. This might be the only way out of our current impasse. A GE probably returns a Commons more divided than the present one. A Con-Lab deal could well be defeated if it doesn't include a referendum. A no deal Brexit successor to T May is unlikely to have the confidence of the house to lead us into a no deal Brexit.
2. And yet. Public opinion has not shifted much in favour of Remain, if at all, and Farage is showing, yet again, that the Brexit side of this debate is still far better at rallying public support than the Remain side. I still see Remain losing a second referendum by a greater margin that then first.
3. This then leads to a very hard/no deal Brexit because the compromise refuseniks will be fired up with their latest victory, while Remainers and Pragmatists will be cowed. Even if the referendum had been set up as a legally binding choice between implementing the Deal vs Remain, if the campaign during the referendum features no deal enthusiasts pledging to overturn that in the Commons following a strong vote for Leave then there would be nothing to prevent them from doing so.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Stereotomy, whilst true, I wonder if the centrism is incidental. > > The Conservatives are not, currently, able to leave with no deal, leave with a deal, or remain. They're becalmed, doing nothing. > > The anti-Conservative sentiment is as much a frustrated electorate wanting them to just do something rather than wibbling in circles, I'd guess.
Yes, the same electorate that gave them no majority at the last election.
Voters, like customers, don't have to be consistent or rational ...
> @Streeter said: > Mr. Streeter, we'd remain subject to EU rules with no say over them due to the backstop, and no way to leave the backstop without EU agreement. That's not exactly tungsten-tipped. > > Staying in the customs union is neither hard nor soft Brexit, but bloody stupid. > > Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not the correct definition.
And sitting outside the EU whilst still doing much of our trade with it, we'll be subject in effect to many EU rules and standards even in a 'no deal' scenario.
Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > @rkrkrk said: > > > > > Thanks. My primary goal is to avoid a hard Brexit. > > > > > My fear is the lib dems and co. will get their second referendum, lose it and then I think the country is forced into a very damaging hard Brexit. > > > > That's a pretty unlikely sequence of events you're afraid of. > > It seems quite likely to me, unfortunately. > > 1. Another referendum. This might be the only way out of our current impasse. A GE probably returns a Commons more divided than the present one. A Con-Lab deal could well be defeated if it doesn't include a referendum. A no deal Brexit successor to T May is unlikely to have the confidence of the house to lead us into a no deal Brexit. > > 2. And yet. Public opinion has not shifted much in favour of Remain, if at all, and Farage is showing, yet again, that the Brexit side of this debate is still far better at rallying public support than the Remain side. I still see Remain losing a second referendum by a greater margin that then first. > > 3. This then leads to a very hard/no deal Brexit because the compromise refuseniks will be fired up with their latest victory, while Remainers and Pragmatists will be cowed. Even if the referendum had been set up as a legally binding choice between implementing the Deal vs Remain, if the campaign during the referendum features no deal enthusiasts pledging to overturn that in the Commons following a strong vote for Leave then there would be nothing to prevent them from doing so.
But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
I'm not sure you can excuse Labour members quite so easily, given that they voted Blair back into government in 2005 after Iraq and Afghanistan began.
But good that you'll presumably give the Lib Dems a second chance when Layla Moran replaces Vince Cable.
> @Roger said: > > @HYUFD said: > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20 > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders...... > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany.
Mr. B2, every export has to conform to the standards of the nation or bloc to whom their goods are sent.
That doesn't require the said nation or bloc to dictate domestic regulations, or determining that the exporting nation referred to has to allow others unfettered access to its market which is not reciprocated.
> @old_labour said: > Labour support imploding . > > > > Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded. > > I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
The biggest losses are to pro second vote parties . Labour only has now around 25% Leavers , it’s become much more Remain since 2016.
> @TGOHF said: > > @Roger said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20 > > > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders...... > > > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia" > > I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany. > >
So telling leavers they are all racists - great line - run with it.
This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010?
The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one.
You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd.
But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
> @Streeter said: > Mr. Streeter, true. > > It doesn't mean you're right either. > > Leaving the EU and staying in the customs union is plain idiocy. > > Please provide a source dating from the time of the referendum supporting your contention that soft Brexit means anything other than SM+CU/Norway.
And perhaps you could also remind us who said
"We have no plans for no deal because we are going to get a good deal"
> @JosiasJessop said: > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections. > > I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence. > > But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths. > > Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition. > > What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010? > > The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one. > > You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd. > > But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
I think that it was assumed that the LD's were a softer kinder labour party and never thought that they would 'join' the hated tories. The fact they did is seen as an act of betrayal, not real politic!
> @IanB2 said: > But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held.
We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain.
Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
Mr. Streeter, one of the major themes throughout the campaign (and featuring in the Conservative manifesto [unsure of Labour's] in 2017) was the UK leaving the customs union and making its own trade deals.
The idea that the electorate wants to leave the EU, and that means the EU dictating our trade policy, having to take no account of our interests, denying us the ability to make our own deals, and having the ability to open our markets to foreign nations with that right no reciprocated, is demented. It's indefensible. It's dumb as a post.
Before the result came in, and afterwards, I said I was pretty relaxed about the range of possibilities of leaving. The only hard red line I had was leaving the customs union, on the basis it'd be bloody idiotic to pretend an electorate who wants us out of the EU wants the EU to dictate our trade policy, demonstrably worsening our situation (whether you're pro- or anti-EU).
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
Is it a good bet (and congratulations to pbers who secured double-figure prices)?
What we might see is very low turnout but the percentages have to add up to 100 and Labour's rating is down as well. There have been some Conservative supporters talking about spoiling their votes, not voting for another party.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic.
> @Blue_rog said: > > @JosiasJessop said: > > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144 > > > > > > > > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party > > > > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections. > > > > I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence. > > > > But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths. > > > > Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition. > > > > What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010? > > > > The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one. > > > > You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd. > > > > But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree. > > I think that it was assumed that the LD's were a softer kinder labour party and never thought that they would 'join' the hated tories. The fact they did is seen as an act of betrayal, not real politic!
The way the public viewed the LDs after coalition is part of why we are in this mess, any compromise or working together with others is seen as betrayal, fake and lying, whereas accepting gridlock and paralysis whilst everyone chases their pure, honest, authentic desires is hailed as glorious.
Mr. Streeter, one of the major themes throughout the campaign (and featuring in the Conservative manifesto [unsure of Labour's] in 2017) was the UK leaving the customs union and making its own trade deals.
The idea that the electorate wants to leave the EU, and that means the EU dictating our trade policy, having to take no account of our interests, denying us the ability to make our own deals, and having the ability to open our markets to foreign nations with that right no reciprocated, is demented. It's indefensible. It's dumb as a post.
Before the result came in, and afterwards, I said I was pretty relaxed about the range of possibilities of leaving. The only hard red line I had was leaving the customs union, on the basis it'd be bloody idiotic to pretend an electorate who wants us out of the EU wants the EU to dictate our trade policy, demonstrably worsening our situation (whether you're pro- or anti-EU).
It's an utterly wretched idea.
You’re answering the wrong question again. It’s quite a trait, isn’t it?
> > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
> >
> > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
> >
> > I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
> >
> > But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
> >
> > Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
> >
> > What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010?
> >
> > The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one.
> >
> > You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd.
> >
> > But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
>
> I think that it was assumed that the LD's were a softer kinder labour party and never thought that they would 'join' the hated tories. The fact they did is seen as an act of betrayal, not real politic!
The way the public viewed the LDs after coalition is part of why we are in this mess, any compromise or working together with others is seen as betrayal, fake and lying, whereas accepting gridlock and paralysis whilst everyone chases their pure, honest, authentic desires is hailed as glorious.
It's hard to disagree with that. Compromise is dead, killed by the diseased heart of ideology.
Mentioned last week that the Liberal Democrats have quite a bit of momentum for the Euros. The weekend's polls seem to back that up pretty strongly. No one took my bet that the Lib Dems would beat the Conservatives and Labour though.
After my own weekend's campaigning I would say that everything is now in play. Still finding a lot of hostility to Nigel Farage, so the poll rating for TBP is masking some very strong feelings, which makes it difficult to call, but if I were to guess, then I think TBP may not be doing as well as polls suggest, and may be down on UKIP last time.
On the other hand the Lib Dems seem to be accelerating.
> @old_labour said: > Labour support imploding . > > > > Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded. > > I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
> @Ploppikins said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think. > > I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic.
The Euros are always a test of the popularity of the current government - a free hit without major consequence. That in itself shows 2 things - (1) that the power of the EU parliament is so low that it demonstrates the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU, and (2) this will be an opinion poll on May. So less that 10% it will be.
> @rkrkrk said: > > @IanB2 said: > > But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want. > > The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held. > > We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain. > > Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
I don’t think so - I think we’re talking in the 80-110 range of the ERG.
Nevertheless, you saw how May adapted her position after she got the briefing on the political and economic consequences of no deal, and it was also very notable that despite a lot of rumour and training, there weren’t any cabinet resignations when no deal was ruled out. And preparations for it were abandoned with barely a murmur. Any new PM and Cabinet would find themselves in the same position, and wouldn’t be able to ge5 a no deal referendum through parliament anyway. Not least because the proposition would be near impossible to define.
Mr Dancer. Your argument is logically sound. But rests on the assumption that any such independent trade deals would be more advantageous than the current arrangements. I beg to differ, given the quality of our negotiating team. And that the freedom to negotiate them is, in and of itself, an acceptable trade off for their subsequent sub -optimal nature. Again I disagree that it is. But, that is probably why I am a Remainer, and you aren't. And is definitely why we are stuck as a nation.
I suspect the actual story of the EU election will be not (just) be that the Brexit Party wins handsomely, but that millions of people on *both* sides have had it with fudge/compromise and are going all out for their chosen vision.
That optic is going to be weakened rather by the remainers splitting between LD/CUK/Green/SNP/Plaid... but I don't think the collapse of the two main parties is (just) an indicator that everyone loves Nige.
I guess the most likely outcome is Tories moving behind a harder Brexit under a new leader - but LDs trouncing Labour might also push it Remainwards.
> > > Thanks. My primary goal is to avoid a hard Brexit.
> >
> > > My fear is the lib dems and co. will get their second referendum, lose it and then I think the country is forced into a very damaging hard Brexit.
> >
> > That's a pretty unlikely sequence of events you're afraid of.
>
> It seems quite likely to me, unfortunately.
>
> 1. Another referendum. This might be the only way out of our current impasse. A GE probably returns a Commons more divided than the present one. A Con-Lab deal could well be defeated if it doesn't include a referendum. A no deal Brexit successor to T May is unlikely to have the confidence of the house to lead us into a no deal Brexit.
>
> 2. And yet. Public opinion has not shifted much in favour of Remain, if at all, and Farage is showing, yet again, that the Brexit side of this debate is still far better at rallying public support than the Remain side. I still see Remain losing a second referendum by a greater margin that then first.
>
> 3. This then leads to a very hard/no deal Brexit because the compromise refuseniks will be fired up with their latest victory, while Remainers and Pragmatists will be cowed. Even if the referendum had been set up as a legally binding choice between implementing the Deal vs Remain, if the campaign during the referendum features no deal enthusiasts pledging to overturn that in the Commons following a strong vote for Leave then there would be nothing to prevent them from doing so.
But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
With the party surging in the opinion polls unrepresented
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @old_labour said: > > Labour support imploding . > > > > > > > > Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded. > > > > I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs. > > But LAB voters split 3-1 to Remain.
I think we need some new categories to understand how the parties split, most peoples understanding of remain and leave is hard remain/hard leave and therefore they are surprised when there are more remainers voting tory than leavers.
A good proportion of the country (25-45%?) does not fit into those buckets and are either soft leave or low priority remain/leave. The soft leave and those giving Brexit a low priority probably have more in common with each other than the ideological groups on either side. They are also the voters who are least likely to have switched parties so far.
> @Harris_Tweed said: > I suspect the actual story of the EU election will be not (just) be that the Brexit Party wins handsomely, but that millions of people on *both* sides have had it with fudge/compromise and are going all out for their chosen vision. > > That optic is going to be weakened rather by the remainers splitting between LD/CUK/Green/SNP/Plaid... but I don't think the collapse of the two main parties is (just) an indicator that everyone loves Nige. > > I guess the most likely outcome is Tories moving behind a harder Brexit under a new leader - but LDs trouncing Labour might also push it Remainwards.
Voters want a quick and final Brexit.
The Brexit Party cannot offer that before 2022 - but if it is not solved before then they will get 40% of the vote.
Picking a Con leader ? Pick one who can deliver it quickly and decisively - otherwise the party is toast.
Mr. Dean, whilst the trade aspect does matter, the crux of the matter for me isn't trade, it's the fact that the EU wishes to integrate ever more and become a United States of Europe. I think we're better off out (not least because I think the EU's going to crumble in about 30-40 years or so and that'll harm the members the most).
It's a legitimate view, although not one I share, that we'd be better served as a nation to be a member state of a USE, but for me that's the fork in the road.
Mr. B2, that may be correct. The political class integrating us so deeply they cannot contemplate leaving except in a way that the EU approves does rather back up those who argued we'd given away far too much already.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think. > > Is it a good bet (and congratulations to pbers who secured double-figure prices)? > > What we might see is very low turnout but the percentages have to add up to 100 and Labour's rating is down as well. There have been some Conservative supporters talking about spoiling their votes, not voting for another party.
Not sure about turnout, DJ.
There will be a lot of genuine abstentions but there will be a lot of fired up voters as well. My guess is the two will cancel out and we'll get a normal sort of figure - around 35%.
Even money would seem about right to me for the <10% bet. Wish I'd also taken a fancy price about Labour doing the same. Don't think it will happen but they're trying hard.
> @Floater said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > @Roger said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20 > > > > > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders...... > > > > > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia" > > > > I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany. > > > > > > So telling leavers they are all racists - great line - run with it.
They already know what they are. Most will be voting Farage anyway. This is to give the 75% of non xenophbe Labour voters a rallying call to stop them going to the Lib Dems Greens or CHUKs.
> @ExiledInScotland said: > > @Ploppikins said: > > > @Peter_the_Punter said: > > > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think. > > > > I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic. > > The Euros are always a test of the popularity of the current government - a free hit without major consequence. That in itself shows 2 things - (1) that the power of the EU parliament is so low that it demonstrates the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU, and (2) this will be an opinion poll on May. So less that 10% it will be.
This is true but even Golden Broon at the height of his unpopularity in 2009 scraped 15.2%, although the salience of brexit is a factor this time round. I guess we shall see come the 23rd...
Mr. Matt, does Mr. 1929 have any reasoning or evidence to add?
It was quite a high profile stock market crash, although the evidence on the economic performance (especially in the UK) is more mixed than folklore would have you believe
Mr Dancer. Fair enough. I, too am uncomfortable with the prospect of a USE. I just don't see that as justification for throwing in the towel of our membership right now. However, we have dug ourselves in trenches marked Leave and Remain, and are continuing to skirmish. Despite the fact there are a myriad versions of what Leave and Remain actually is.
> @Recidivist said: > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia" > > Where do I sign? > > I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that.
Mr. Dean, I wish I thought the Cameroon slogan, now parroted by Watson, of "remain and reform" had any prospect whatsoever of success. If I thought it did, I'd probably have voted to Remain.
But it's entirely contrary to the course of the EU and the stated intentions of many of its bigwigs. Integration is the only game in town. And better to walk way sooner rather than later (we already see how difficult it is due to the political class of the UK cheerfully frittering away powers).
Would've been much better had we had that referendum on Lisbon. But there we are.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @Recidivist said: > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia" > > > > Where do I sign? > > > > I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that. > > 'We have always been at war with xenophobia.'
> @rottenborough said: > Farage has threatened that he will never accept another BBC interview again. > > Hurrah! >
I watched the interview and was struck by how he has dropped all the jokey banter in favour of ruthless repetition of soundbites and a tone of out and out offence. "No more Mr Nice Guy", I think he said, when he re-launched, and so it seems to be.
The upshot is that one can see clearly now what he is all about - an aggressive hard right nationalist populist with his sights on power. Brexit is merely the chosen weapon of the moment. Others will be employed if necessary. I don't think this was always the case with him, but it is now. No doubt his exposure to Bannon/Trump and the alt right in the US has played a part.
Bottom line is, the interview worked very well for him. The cognescenti were appalled, but the ignorami loved it and it is they who are the target market.
> @IanB2 said: > Indeed. The cookery book casually open on a page in the absence of any evidence of cooking, and the vase, plus a kitchen that looks like its just had its monthly clean.
As someone pointed out on twitter, why have they got a cookery book open when the only thing they've made is toast? Though given Raab's ignorance on the mysterious necessity of much of the UK's trade going through Dover..
> @Cicero said: > Mentioned last week that the Liberal Democrats have quite a bit of momentum for the Euros. The weekend's polls seem to back that up pretty strongly. No one took my bet that the Lib Dems would beat the Conservatives and Labour though. > > After my own weekend's campaigning I would say that everything is now in play. Still finding a lot of hostility to Nigel Farage, so the poll rating for TBP is masking some very strong feelings, which makes it difficult to call, but if I were to guess, then I think TBP may not be doing as well as polls suggest, and may be down on UKIP last time. > > On the other hand the Lib Dems seem to be accelerating.
I suspect this is a very very good call. If it's not too late, it's worth a punt.
If momentum is everything then you can see a BP - LibDem 1-2 with something around 29% / 19% or thereabouts.
I'm picking up considerable dislike for Farage. Remember that Cummings thought he was a liability and sidelined him from Vote Leave. He's quite toxic, and the last time people thought rallies proved anything was ... Sheffield.
> > But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
>
> The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held.
>
> We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain.
>
> Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
I don’t think so - I think we’re talking in the 80-110 range of the ERG.
Nevertheless, you saw how May adapted her position after she got the briefing on the political and economic consequences of no deal, and it was also very notable that despite a lot of rumour and training, there weren’t any cabinet resignations when no deal was ruled out. And preparations for it were abandoned with barely a murmur. Any new PM and Cabinet would find themselves in the same position, and wouldn’t be able to ge5 a no deal referendum through parliament anyway. Not least because the proposition would be near impossible to define.
If parties who favour no deal get 30% ish at the Euros and Peterborough, how would it be legitimate to have a referendum between May's Deal and Remain?
. I think we're better off out (not least because I think the EU's going to crumble in about 30-40 years or so and that'll harm the members the most). .
How did you get to that 30-40 years figure that you've just pulled out of your hoop?
> @Jonathan said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21 > > > > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd) > > > > Liz looks like she's become unhinged. > > > > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron > > The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
I think other person and kitchen have been hired for the occasion. As have the trousers, and possibly the underwear; hence awkward "my pants are pinching a little" chair-crouch.
> @mwadams said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21 > > > > > > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd) > > > > > > Liz looks like she's become unhinged. > > > > > > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron > > > > The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking. > > I think other person and kitchen have been hired for the occasion. As have the trousers, and possibly the underwear; hence awkward "my pants are pinching a little" chair-crouch.
In fact, I think the Tories should seriously consider his partner, who looks relaxed and confident (possibly safe in the knowledge that her other half isn't going to have to be Tory leader, judging by this photoshoot.)
> @Dura_Ace said: > . I think we're better off out (not least because I think the EU's going to crumble in about 30-40 years or so and that'll harm the members the most). > . > > How did you get to that 30-40 years figure that you've just pulled out of your hoop?
40 years ago, even the most far-sighted of commentators couldn't have guessed where MT's election was going to take us, let alone where we have ended up now. That's a pretty punchy prediction!
If parties who favour no deal get 30% ish at the Euros and Peterborough, how would it be legitimate to have a referendum between May's Deal and Remain?
You've gotta save people from themselves sometimes, Sam.
Plenty of whacko ideas would get 30% in a popular vote, doesn't mean we should entertain them.
> > But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
>
> The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held.
>
> We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain.
>
> Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
I don’t think so - I think we’re talking in the 80-110 range of the ERG.
Nevertheless, you saw how May adapted her position after she got the briefing on the political and economic consequences of no deal, and it was also very notable that despite a lot of rumour and training, there weren’t any cabinet resignations when no deal was ruled out. And preparations for it were abandoned with barely a murmur. Any new PM and Cabinet would find themselves in the same position, and wouldn’t be able to ge5 a no deal referendum through parliament anyway. Not least because the proposition would be near impossible to define.
It's not "impossible to define".
It's leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement.
That's it.
Anything that happens after that point of time is up to the government.
Comments
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20
>
> A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
>
> "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
Rather too reminiscent of the Soviets telling their peasants and proletariat that they were internationalist in the absence of any particular evidence? Part of Labour's base has that view, part doesn't, I suspect.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
>
>
>
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
Vote Green then.
Where do I sign?
I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
>
>
>
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
We have to live in the world as it is today, not as it was in the past. Brexit is all about looking backwards, you are making the same mistake.
But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
> https://twitter.com/BrexitNewYorker/status/1127662759393542144
>
>
>
> The Thatcher tank pictures (which I think were taken at Sennelager) were years after the Falklands.
Just as well, as 11 is somewhat early to be drowning in hormones.
> Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
>
> https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21
Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the strategically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd)
Liz looks like she's become unhinged.
And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
>
> Based on the local election results I'd suggest it's very likely that the LibDems will beat Labour in the South East region - which was your question - and hence be the better choice to reduce the Brexit Party's chances of getting more seats.
>
> As to which outcome leads to which Brexit conclusion, who can say? I saw someone recently argue that the better the Brexit Party does, the less likely is Brexit. All we can do as voters is ensure that the viewpoint we wish to express is represented by the results of the election as best as possible.
Last time Labour got 25% nationally and 15% in S. East.
Lib Dems got 7% nationally and 8% in S. East.
This time Lib Dems seem to be polling better and Labour worse.
I suspect it will be close between them in the S. East but would agree that Lib Dems are more likely to be ahead. Agree with your last point. I'll ponder some more.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
>
>
>
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
>
> I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
>
> But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
Particularly as the detail of Miliband and Balls's economic policy at the time strongly suggests the bigger picture in terms of spending cuts including on benefits would have been broadly similar had that Labour Party got into power in 2010, on its own or in coalition.
Staying in the customs union is neither hard nor soft Brexit, but bloody stupid.
> https://twitter.com/BrexitNewYorker/status/1127662759393542144
>
>
>
> The Thatcher tank pictures (which I think were taken at Sennelager) were years after the Falklands.
If elderly women on tanks gets him going his issues are more serious than misremembering dates
> https://twitter.com/BrexitNewYorker/status/1127662759393542144
>
>
>
> The Thatcher tank pictures (which I think were taken at Sennelager) were years after the Falklands.
Indeed.
Baker's living in some fantasy world.
And as so often the myth of Thatcher was different to the reality,
> Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
>
>
Old Spice vs Trendy Vicar vs Stepford Wives
The only chance of a change to FPTP for Parliamentary elections, is as part of a much wider constitutional convention.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21
>
> Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd)
>
> Liz looks like she's become unhinged.
>
> And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
> > @old_labour said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> >
>
> > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats
>
>
>
> Now if only the Greens and LibDems could have got together, we'd have a race on our hands.
>
> I have no wish to return to a pre-industrial age, so no Green vote from me although I voted for them in the 2009 Euros in the hope that a poor Labour showing would shift Gordon Brown out of Number 10.
The tactical reasons for voting LibDem or Green are stronger now than then.
Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
> @williamglenn said:
>
> > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Old Spice vs Trendy Vicar vs Stepford Wives
Who's the Trendy Vicar ?
And Stepford Wives have been remade - its now International Stepford Wives.
I don't know whether that is meant to appeal to the globalist vote or the porn category vote.
Edit: Old Spice is a great name - we should list the whole lot and give each a suitable description.
> > @Roger said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20
> >
> > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
> >
> > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
>
> Rather too reminiscent of the Soviets telling their peasants and proletariat that they were internationalist in the absence of any particular evidence? Part of Labour's base has that view, part doesn't, I suspect.
Whichever way, it has to be better than the current slogan of ...err, what exactly? Have heard precisely nowt.
It doesn't mean you're right either.
Leaving the EU and staying in the customs union is plain idiocy.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21
> >
> > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd)
> >
> > Liz looks like she's become unhinged.
> >
> > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
>
> The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
Indeed. The cookery book casually open on a page in the absence of any evidence of cooking, and the vase, plus a kitchen that looks like its just had its monthly clean.
> > @rkrkrk said:
>
> > Thanks. My primary goal is to avoid a hard Brexit.
>
> > My fear is the lib dems and co. will get their second referendum, lose it and then I think the country is forced into a very damaging hard Brexit.
>
> That's a pretty unlikely sequence of events you're afraid of.
It seems quite likely to me, unfortunately.
1. Another referendum. This might be the only way out of our current impasse. A GE probably returns a Commons more divided than the present one. A Con-Lab deal could well be defeated if it doesn't include a referendum. A no deal Brexit successor to T May is unlikely to have the confidence of the house to lead us into a no deal Brexit.
2. And yet. Public opinion has not shifted much in favour of Remain, if at all, and Farage is showing, yet again, that the Brexit side of this debate is still far better at rallying public support than the Remain side. I still see Remain losing a second referendum by a greater margin that then first.
3. This then leads to a very hard/no deal Brexit because the compromise refuseniks will be fired up with their latest victory, while Remainers and Pragmatists will be cowed. Even if the referendum had been set up as a legally binding choice between implementing the Deal vs Remain, if the campaign during the referendum features no deal enthusiasts pledging to overturn that in the Commons following a strong vote for Leave then there would be nothing to prevent them from doing so.
> Mr. Stereotomy, whilst true, I wonder if the centrism is incidental.
>
> The Conservatives are not, currently, able to leave with no deal, leave with a deal, or remain. They're becalmed, doing nothing.
>
> The anti-Conservative sentiment is as much a frustrated electorate wanting them to just do something rather than wibbling in circles, I'd guess.
Yes, the same electorate that gave them no majority at the last election.
Voters, like customers, don't have to be consistent or rational ...
> Mr. Streeter, we'd remain subject to EU rules with no say over them due to the backstop, and no way to leave the backstop without EU agreement. That's not exactly tungsten-tipped.
>
> Staying in the customs union is neither hard nor soft Brexit, but bloody stupid.
>
> Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not the correct definition.
And sitting outside the EU whilst still doing much of our trade with it, we'll be subject in effect to many EU rules and standards even in a 'no deal' scenario.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > > @rkrkrk said:
> >
> > > Thanks. My primary goal is to avoid a hard Brexit.
> >
> > > My fear is the lib dems and co. will get their second referendum, lose it and then I think the country is forced into a very damaging hard Brexit.
> >
> > That's a pretty unlikely sequence of events you're afraid of.
>
> It seems quite likely to me, unfortunately.
>
> 1. Another referendum. This might be the only way out of our current impasse. A GE probably returns a Commons more divided than the present one. A Con-Lab deal could well be defeated if it doesn't include a referendum. A no deal Brexit successor to T May is unlikely to have the confidence of the house to lead us into a no deal Brexit.
>
> 2. And yet. Public opinion has not shifted much in favour of Remain, if at all, and Farage is showing, yet again, that the Brexit side of this debate is still far better at rallying public support than the Remain side. I still see Remain losing a second referendum by a greater margin that then first.
>
> 3. This then leads to a very hard/no deal Brexit because the compromise refuseniks will be fired up with their latest victory, while Remainers and Pragmatists will be cowed. Even if the referendum had been set up as a legally binding choice between implementing the Deal vs Remain, if the campaign during the referendum features no deal enthusiasts pledging to overturn that in the Commons following a strong vote for Leave then there would be nothing to prevent them from doing so.
But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
But good that you'll presumably give the Lib Dems a second chance when Layla Moran replaces Vince Cable.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20
>
> A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
>
> "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany.
That doesn't require the said nation or bloc to dictate domestic regulations, or determining that the exporting nation referred to has to allow others unfettered access to its market which is not reciprocated.
> Labour support imploding .
>
>
>
> Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
>
> I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
The biggest losses are to pro second vote parties . Labour only has now around 25% Leavers , it’s become much more Remain since 2016.
Remainers are deserting the party in droves .
https://order-order.com/2019/05/13/brexit-party-takes-18-point-lead-tories-slump-5th/
>
> The Thatcher tank pictures (which I think were taken at Sennelager) were years after the Falklands.
Fallingbostel, 1986:
https://iconicphotos.wordpress.com/2009/04/23/thatcher-in-a-tank/
> > @Roger said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20
> >
> > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
> >
> > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
>
> I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany.
>
>
So telling leavers they are all racists - great line - run with it.
Hurrah!
The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one.
You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd.
But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
> Mr. Streeter, true.
>
> It doesn't mean you're right either.
>
> Leaving the EU and staying in the customs union is plain idiocy.
>
> Please provide a source dating from the time of the referendum supporting your contention that soft Brexit means anything other than SM+CU/Norway.
And perhaps you could also remind us who said
"We have no plans for no deal because we are going to get a good deal"
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
>
>
>
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
>
> I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
>
> But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
>
> Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
>
> What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010?
>
> The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one.
>
> You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd.
>
> But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
I think that it was assumed that the LD's were a softer kinder labour party and never thought that they would 'join' the hated tories. The fact they did is seen as an act of betrayal, not real politic!
> But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held.
We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain.
Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
The idea that the electorate wants to leave the EU, and that means the EU dictating our trade policy, having to take no account of our interests, denying us the ability to make our own deals, and having the ability to open our markets to foreign nations with that right no reciprocated, is demented. It's indefensible. It's dumb as a post.
Before the result came in, and afterwards, I said I was pretty relaxed about the range of possibilities of leaving. The only hard red line I had was leaving the customs union, on the basis it'd be bloody idiotic to pretend an electorate who wants us out of the EU wants the EU to dictate our trade policy, demonstrably worsening our situation (whether you're pro- or anti-EU).
It's an utterly wretched idea.
> Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
Is it a good bet (and congratulations to pbers who secured double-figure prices)?
What we might see is very low turnout but the percentages have to add up to 100 and Labour's rating is down as well. There have been some Conservative supporters talking about spoiling their votes, not voting for another party.
> Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic.
It’s about whether it is correct to call May’s deal a soft Brexit.
And it is not.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsmanchester/the-jeremy-kyle-show-pulled-off-air-and-suspended-indefinitely-after-guest-died-shortly-after-filming/ar-AABi12k
> > @JosiasJessop said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144
> >
> >
> >
> > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
> >
> > I could never vote for the Liberal Democrats after that day of infamy on 11 May 2010 and I rule nothing out to prevent them from coming first or second in the European elections.
> >
> > I'm no fan of the Coalition, though largely because of its actions (and inaction) rather than the fact of its existence.
> >
> > But I will never understand the mindset of those who won't forgive the Lib Dems for coalition, yet have readily forgiven Labour for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which caused 600,000 deaths.
> >
> > Those people responsible for that no longer lead the Labour party. The Lib Dem MPs and their members voted for the coalition.
> >
> > What do you think the Lib Dems should have done in 2010?
> >
> > The people voted, and the result was that the Conservatives had most MPs, but not a majority. However, Labour were so far behind that any coalition involving them would have been a rather interesting and precarious one.
> >
> > You can fault what the Lib Dems did whilst in coalition government, but blaming them for going into that coalition government seems a little odd.
> >
> > But then I, like a fair few others, think the coalition was a rare period of good governance in this country, despite the economic problems they inherited. I think you might disagree.
>
> I think that it was assumed that the LD's were a softer kinder labour party and never thought that they would 'join' the hated tories. The fact they did is seen as an act of betrayal, not real politic!
The way the public viewed the LDs after coalition is part of why we are in this mess, any compromise or working together with others is seen as betrayal, fake and lying, whereas accepting gridlock and paralysis whilst everyone chases their pure, honest, authentic desires is hailed as glorious.
After my own weekend's campaigning I would say that everything is now in play. Still finding a lot of hostility to Nigel Farage, so the poll rating for TBP is masking some very strong feelings, which makes it difficult to call, but if I were to guess, then I think TBP may not be doing as well as polls suggest, and may be down on UKIP last time.
On the other hand the Lib Dems seem to be accelerating.
> Labour support imploding .
>
>
>
> Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
>
> I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
But LAB voters split 3-1 to Remain.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
>
> I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic.
The Euros are always a test of the popularity of the current government - a free hit without major consequence. That in itself shows 2 things - (1) that the power of the EU parliament is so low that it demonstrates the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU, and (2) this will be an opinion poll on May. So less that 10% it will be.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > But the only form of referendum likely (both from common sense and the views of a majority of parliament) is a deal v status quo one, thereby removing the possibility of a no deal exit. No sane politician is going to risk putting 'no deal' out to a public vote (even if it could be defined in terms specific enough satisfy the electoral commission). Thus a referendum more than likely secures precisely what you want.
>
> The People's Vote campaign aren't clear about under what conditions the vote would be held.
>
> We've seen though that their supporter MPs will vote against softer Brexit, to improve the chances of a second referendum. So if it happens, I think it will be a very hard Brexit/No deal vs. Remain.
>
> Edit to add: I think you are seriously underestimating the support for No Deal in parliament. It's the favoured option of a significant minority, and probably 200+ could live with it (based on the fact that they wouldn't vote to rule it out).
I don’t think so - I think we’re talking in the 80-110 range of the ERG.
Nevertheless, you saw how May adapted her position after she got the briefing on the political and economic consequences of no deal, and it was also very notable that despite a lot of rumour and training, there weren’t any cabinet resignations when no deal was ruled out. And preparations for it were abandoned with barely a murmur. Any new PM and Cabinet would find themselves in the same position, and wouldn’t be able to ge5 a no deal referendum through parliament anyway. Not least because the proposition would be near impossible to define.
And that the freedom to negotiate them is, in and of itself, an acceptable trade off for their subsequent sub -optimal nature. Again I disagree that it is.
But, that is probably why I am a Remainer, and you aren't.
And is definitely why we are stuck as a nation.
That optic is going to be weakened rather by the remainers splitting between LD/CUK/Green/SNP/Plaid... but I don't think the collapse of the two main parties is (just) an indicator that everyone loves Nige.
I guess the most likely outcome is Tories moving behind a harder Brexit under a new leader - but LDs trouncing Labour might also push it Remainwards.
> > @old_labour said:
> > Labour support imploding .
> >
> >
> >
> > Thoroughly deserved ! If Corbyn thinks Labour Remainers are going to stay loyal while he waffles on about a second vote if the stars align and Halley’s comet arrives he’s deluded.
> >
> > I imagine many of those Labour voters have gone over to the Brexit party because of people like Watson, etc talking of a third referendum with a few Blairites going over to the Green and Liberal Democrats. It would be interesting to see the cross tabs.
>
> But LAB voters split 3-1 to Remain.
I think we need some new categories to understand how the parties split, most peoples understanding of remain and leave is hard remain/hard leave and therefore they are surprised when there are more remainers voting tory than leavers.
A good proportion of the country (25-45%?) does not fit into those buckets and are either soft leave or low priority remain/leave. The soft leave and those giving Brexit a low priority probably have more in common with each other than the ideological groups on either side. They are also the voters who are least likely to have switched parties so far.
> I suspect the actual story of the EU election will be not (just) be that the Brexit Party wins handsomely, but that millions of people on *both* sides have had it with fudge/compromise and are going all out for their chosen vision.
>
> That optic is going to be weakened rather by the remainers splitting between LD/CUK/Green/SNP/Plaid... but I don't think the collapse of the two main parties is (just) an indicator that everyone loves Nige.
>
> I guess the most likely outcome is Tories moving behind a harder Brexit under a new leader - but LDs trouncing Labour might also push it Remainwards.
Voters want a quick and final Brexit.
The Brexit Party cannot offer that before 2022 - but if it is not solved before then they will get 40% of the vote.
Picking a Con leader ? Pick one who can deliver it quickly and decisively - otherwise the party is toast.
It's a legitimate view, although not one I share, that we'd be better served as a nation to be a member state of a USE, but for me that's the fork in the road.
Mr. B2, that may be correct. The political class integrating us so deeply they cannot contemplate leaving except in a way that the EU approves does rather back up those who argued we'd given away far too much already.
> > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
>
> Is it a good bet (and congratulations to pbers who secured double-figure prices)?
>
> What we might see is very low turnout but the percentages have to add up to 100 and Labour's rating is down as well. There have been some Conservative supporters talking about spoiling their votes, not voting for another party.
Not sure about turnout, DJ.
There will be a lot of genuine abstentions but there will be a lot of fired up voters as well. My guess is the two will cancel out and we'll get a normal sort of figure - around 35%.
Even money would seem about right to me for the <10% bet. Wish I'd also taken a fancy price about Labour doing the same. Don't think it will happen but they're trying hard.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1127843948150571008?s=20
> > >
> > > A good line by Paul Mason. Corbyn and Co should pick it up and run with it. A much more impressive rallying cry for the euro election than sitting on the fence pandering to their own little englanders......
> > >
> > > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
> >
> > I'd imagine that will go down very well in the cafes of Tuscany.
> >
> >
>
> So telling leavers they are all racists - great line - run with it.
They already know what they are. Most will be voting Farage anyway. This is to give the 75% of non xenophbe Labour voters a rallying call to stop them going to the Lib Dems Greens or CHUKs.
> > @Ploppikins said:
> > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
> > > Ladbrokes now 6/4 Tories <10% at Euros. Will be evens soon I should think.
> >
> > I still think 10-20% is the sensible bet. The deal is universally panned, but low support does not equal zero support and some pragmatists will return to the fold. Add this to the bedrock of support (those would vote for a donkey in a blue rosette) and it's not difficult to see the Tories getting to 10%. No chance of polling anywhere near 20 mind you, but escaping single figures should be perfectly realistic.
>
> The Euros are always a test of the popularity of the current government - a free hit without major consequence. That in itself shows 2 things - (1) that the power of the EU parliament is so low that it demonstrates the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU, and (2) this will be an opinion poll on May. So less that 10% it will be.
This is true but even Golden Broon at the height of his unpopularity in 2009 scraped 15.2%, although the salience of brexit is a factor this time round. I guess we shall see come the 23rd...
> https://twitter.com/BrexitNewYorker/status/1127662759393542144
Presumably the preferred rhyming slang in the Baker household is Thatcher Tank.
However, we have dug ourselves in trenches marked Leave and Remain, and are continuing to skirmish.
Despite the fact there are a myriad versions of what Leave and Remain actually is.
> "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
>
> Where do I sign?
>
> I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that.
'We have always been at war with xenophobia.'
But it's entirely contrary to the course of the EU and the stated intentions of many of its bigwigs. Integration is the only game in town. And better to walk way sooner rather than later (we already see how difficult it is due to the political class of the UK cheerfully frittering away powers).
Would've been much better had we had that referendum on Lisbon. But there we are.
> > @Recidivist said:
> > "We're an internationalist party at war with the forces of xenophobia"
> >
> > Where do I sign?
> >
> > I've not decided who I am voting for yet, but I'd definitely go for that.
>
> 'We have always been at war with xenophobia.'
Apart from Jewish xenophobia - that's different.
On reflection, he looks like his balls are in a vice
20% of Labour GE 2017 switching to the Lib Dems in the normal Westminster poll.
In the EU elections , only 8% of Labour Leavers moving to the BP .
Labour losing 14% to Lib Dems and 11% to Greens .
Good work Corbyn !
> Farage has threatened that he will never accept another BBC interview again.
>
> Hurrah!
>
I watched the interview and was struck by how he has dropped all the jokey banter in favour of ruthless repetition of soundbites and a tone of out and out offence. "No more Mr Nice Guy", I think he said, when he re-launched, and so it seems to be.
The upshot is that one can see clearly now what he is all about - an aggressive hard right nationalist populist with his sights on power. Brexit is merely the chosen weapon of the moment. Others will be employed if necessary. I don't think this was always the case with him, but it is now. No doubt his exposure to Bannon/Trump and the alt right in the US has played a part.
Bottom line is, the interview worked very well for him. The cognescenti were appalled, but the ignorami loved it and it is they who are the target market.
> Indeed. The cookery book casually open on a page in the absence of any evidence of cooking, and the vase, plus a kitchen that looks like its just had its monthly clean.
As someone pointed out on twitter, why have they got a cookery book open when the only thing they've made is toast? Though given Raab's ignorance on the mysterious necessity of much of the UK's trade going through Dover..
> Mentioned last week that the Liberal Democrats have quite a bit of momentum for the Euros. The weekend's polls seem to back that up pretty strongly. No one took my bet that the Lib Dems would beat the Conservatives and Labour though.
>
> After my own weekend's campaigning I would say that everything is now in play. Still finding a lot of hostility to Nigel Farage, so the poll rating for TBP is masking some very strong feelings, which makes it difficult to call, but if I were to guess, then I think TBP may not be doing as well as polls suggest, and may be down on UKIP last time.
>
> On the other hand the Lib Dems seem to be accelerating.
I suspect this is a very very good call. If it's not too late, it's worth a punt.
If momentum is everything then you can see a BP - LibDem 1-2 with something around 29% / 19% or thereabouts.
I'm picking up considerable dislike for Farage. Remember that Cummings thought he was a liability and sidelined him from Vote Leave. He's quite toxic, and the last time people thought rallies proved anything was ... Sheffield.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21
> >
> > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd)
> >
> > Liz looks like she's become unhinged.
> >
> > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
>
> The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
I think other person and kitchen have been hired for the occasion. As have the trousers, and possibly the underwear; hence awkward "my pants are pinching a little" chair-crouch.
> I'm picking up considerable dislike for Farage.
That will be why Brexit Party has a nearly 20% lead in the EU elections with YouGov this morning?
> Mr. 67, be fair. Corbyn's got some work to do if he wants to match up to May's vote-shedding prowess.
Give him time I’m sure he’ll get there !
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > Welcome to the Tory leadership candidate fashion show.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/1127841221949501440?s=21
> > >
> > > Don't see the problem with the Raabs (although the stratefically placed vase of flowers in the middle of a kitchen work top looks odd)
> > >
> > > Liz looks like she's become unhinged.
> > >
> > > And Matt Hancock is... Matt Hancock... #moron
> >
> > The posed sterility and awkwardness of Raab is striking.
>
> I think other person and kitchen have been hired for the occasion. As have the trousers, and possibly the underwear; hence awkward "my pants are pinching a little" chair-crouch.
In fact, I think the Tories should seriously consider his partner, who looks relaxed and confident (possibly safe in the knowledge that her other half isn't going to have to be Tory leader, judging by this photoshoot.)
> . I think we're better off out (not least because I think the EU's going to crumble in about 30-40 years or so and that'll harm the members the most).
> .
>
> How did you get to that 30-40 years figure that you've just pulled out of your hoop?
40 years ago, even the most far-sighted of commentators couldn't have guessed where MT's election was going to take us, let alone where we have ended up now. That's a pretty punchy prediction!
Plenty of whacko ideas would get 30% in a popular vote, doesn't mean we should entertain them.
It's leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement.
That's it.
Anything that happens after that point of time is up to the government.