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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Graham Brady had acted differently in July 2016 TMay might never have become PM
With the pressure ratcheting up in the Tory party against TMay it is perhaps worth recalling how she got the job in the first place in July 2016. Boris was the longstanding favourite but pulled out following Michael Gove’s surprise entry into the race. In the MP balloting TMay came top with Andrea Leadsom second.
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F1: post-race ramble about Spain is here:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2019.html
This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144?s=19
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
You might well be right.
Great Uncle Vince or no, I’ll be voting for them.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144?s=19
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
Time to CHUK in the towel?
Theresa May - Easter, 2017.
> Mr. Smithson, between Labour and the Lib Dems, surely?
Looking like a battle between the Brexit Party and fresh air.
> “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”
>
> Theresa May - Easter, 2017.
Behind Nigel ?
> So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens?
>
> Everyone?
Looks like they're in trouble !
> Time to CHUK in the towel?
Probably no harm in hanging on and seeing what happens. They still have their broadcasts and TV slots. Do those, take the publicity you can, sign people up for mailing lists and things, and if it still looks hopeless a few days before the vote, *then* advocate backing LD (or Green if they're looking stronger). That's much more helpful for the lucky recipient of their endorsement, because they get a full news cycle on how well they're doing right before the election.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144?s=19
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
I did suggest that a while ago
> > @Sandpit said:
> > So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens?
> >
> > Everyone?
>
> Looks like they're in trouble !
They’ve lost 88% of their value in just over a year.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > Time to CHUK in the towel?
>
> Probably no harm in hanging on and seeing what happens. They still have their broadcasts and TV slots. Do those, take the publicity you can, sign people up for mailing lists and things, and if it still looks hopeless a few days before the vote, *then* advocate backing LD (or Green if they're looking stronger). That's much more helpful for the lucky recipient of their endorsement, because they get a full news cycle on how well they're doing right before the election.
They shouldn't have much TV time, polling appallingly, didn't contest the locals..
> I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%
My 60/1 on Lab under 10% is looking tasty!
Surely there will be another challenge to Corbyn this summer, as well as May? I know in theory she is secure until December, but it is not tenable to have people openly contesting the leadership while she is a lame duck.
> I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%
There might have been something like that when the Alliance was first set up in the early 80's. Pre-Falklands, of course!
> On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
Seconded.
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > “There is a sense of people coming together and uniting.”
> >
> > Theresa May - Easter, 2017.
>
> Behind Nigel ?
Of course. The LibDem landslide is nailed on.
I think Brown's worst was a 19 point standing for Labour. That said, the worst lead was 28 points for Cameron (Con 52, Lab 24).
Quite another time.
Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
(Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > So who's going to short Metro Bank shares when the market opens?
> >
> > Everyone?
>
> Looks like they're in trouble !
Damn. I've found them very convenient to use for my personal banking.
Hope they pull through somehow.
More competition, which requires new blood, is a good thing for consumers.
I have two mortgages with them.
> On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
>
> I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
>
> Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
>
> At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
>
> If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
>
> Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
>
> And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
>
> My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
>
> (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
>
> Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
It’s healthy for banks to go bust from time to time. The problems come if a bank’s failure would have immediate systemic implications.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > I assume there has never been a national poll showing labour at 16% and conservatives at 10%
>
> My 60/1 on Lab under 10% is looking tasty!
>
> Surely there will be another challenge to Corbyn this summer, as well as May? I know in theory she is secure until December, but it is not tenable to have people openly contesting the leadership while she is a lame Duck.
We already know that Labour members believe having Jeremy as leader is more important than the party winning elections.
> Mr. rkrkrk, whilst not a customer, I hope they're alright too.
>
> More competition, which requires new blood, is a good thing for consumers.
Was a few years back, but I walked in at 4pm on a Sunday without an appointment. I walked out at 4:30pm with a bank account, set up for online banking and a debit card they printed out in store I could use within 24 hours. Wasted months with Lloyds trying to do the same thing.
> On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
>
> I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
>
> Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
>
> At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
>
> If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
>
> Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
>
> And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
>
> My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
>
> (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
>
> Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.
The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.
> What impact on main party MPs will this polling disintegration have? They weren’t exactly enthused with their party’s leaderships when they were polling around 40%.
I guess most of them will put their seats into Baxter and go, "hmm, we lost half our votes but it seems like I get to keep my job regardless, FPTP is pretty great"
The figures were:
May 199
Leadsom 84
Gove 46
Are you seriously suggesting it would have been a good idea to put forward a candidate with the backing of just one-seventh of the parliamentary party by means of a change of the rules in mid-race?
Leaving aside the fact the candidate in question was Michael Gove, who is like May without the good qualities.
There's quite a good one immediately.
> Mr. Me, also possible that's driven by negative voting (ie against X rather than for Y), as some disaffected with Labour might still refuse to vote yellow due to the Coalition years when the Lib Dems unforgivably became part of the government.
I think the Coalition effect is now decisively in the past. If it were still strong the Lib Dems would be behind the Greens (as they were at the 2014 European elections) and wouldn't have made huge gains at the local elections.
> On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?
I think they both have a decent chance of getting 1, and need quite a heroic performance to get 2? So probably not.
However if the goal is to back a Remain candidate you also need to look at whether the party supports Remain, which with the LDs is Yes and with Labour is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
...unless you're one of the MPs who gets to make the decision, in which case it has the defence that you get to keep your job, apparently no matter how much you bollocks it up and how much the voters hate you.
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > On the topic of European elections, just been contacted by a not-very-political family member suggesting I vote Lib Dems vs. Labour in S. East as they have a better chance against the Brexit party. Is that actually true?
>
> I think they both have a decent chance of getting 1, and need quite a heroic performance to get 2? So probably not.
>
> However if the goal is to back a Remain candidate you also need to look at whether the party supports Remain, which with the LDs is Yes and with Labour is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If labour were a remain party it would be all over now and we would continue as a member of the EU by revoking A50.
That is the damage labour are doing to remainers by playing to both sides
If you are a remainer the Lib Dems is the place for your x
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
>
> It stops PM Farage and makes PM Corbyn highly improbable.
>
> There's quite a good one immediately.
On the vote shares in that poll Farage wins a majority of 266 with 34%. Yay FPTP.
> Mr Smithson.
>
> The figures were:
>
> May 199
> Leadsom 84
> Gove 46
>
> Are you seriously suggesting it would have been a good idea to put forward a candidate with the backing of just one-seventh of the parliamentary party by means of a change of the rules in mid-race?
>
> Leaving aside the fact the candidate in question was Michael Gove, who is like May without the good qualities.
Had Gove been PM, we’d very probably have Brexited by now, however disastrously.
Farage would be on the US speech circuit, and we’d be looking forward to next year’s general election.
> Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
>
> I have two mortgages with them.
https://tinyurl.com/y55l9sod
And
https://tinyurl.com/ybkpts5b
Metro Bank has revealed a major blunder in how it classifies its loan book, an admission that drove its share price down by nearly 40% on Wednesday, wiping £800m off the value of the company.
The bank, which has been opening new branches as established rivals cut back, revealed that hundreds of millions of pounds of commercial property loans and loans to commercial buy-to-let operators had been wrongly classified in risk terms, and should have been among its “risk-weighted assets” (RWAs).
Brexit are neck and neck with Labour in the NE and Wales and some way clear in Yorks and Humber. There's something like a 7 point swing from Lab>>BP in the Northern eastern regions.
BP miles ahead in the SW.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155
Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
Brexit was always going to be difficult because Leavers don’t agree on where we are heading and cannot resolve the contradictions and tensions inherent in Brexit. Not least how you manage the economic impact.
> FPT - it’s Chris Rea the businessman not Chris Rea the singer.
Tories (And possibly Labour) look like they're on the road to hell at any rate.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > On topic, I see the point but my recollection (though I was not focusing on politics as much as usual at the time) was that Sir Graham was following rather than leading expectations.
>
> >
>
> > I seem to recall that there also pressure to get a new government in place quickly rather than wait until September or whenever. Ironic really given that all May has done is delayed matters. A bit more time then to scrutinise the candidates might have served the Tories well.
>
> >
>
> > Would Gove have won against May? Hard to say? Would he have handled matters better?
>
> >
>
> > At any event, the government is - as anticipated by Tusk - wasting the time granted by the extension.
>
> >
>
> > If the Brexit party does win the euros, what effect will this - and any new Tory leader, if May is prised out - have on our October deadline?
>
> >
>
> > Two questions: will any new PM go for a No Deal exit and will they have a majority in Parliament if they do?
>
> >
>
> > And if they seek a new extension (for what?) will the EU agree and, if so, for how long?
>
> >
>
> > My view, FWIW, is that a No Deal PM Tory Party leader looks more likely than before but their chances of commanding an effective majority are lower. And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
>
> >
>
> > (Quite separately I do wonder why anyone sane would want to lead the Tories at this point. They are effectively split, deaf to common-sense and in panic mode.)
>
> >
>
> > Anyway, tonight I am off to see The Lehman Trilogy. Let’s hope this is not a bad omen for Metro Bank.
>
>
>
> I think your recollection is right but Mike is also right to point out that a contested vote would have highlighted May's serious weaknesses as a campaigner which just might have led to second thoughts.
>
>
>
> The extension to date has been a complete waste of time. No one is changing their position and we still have deadlock. It is hard to see any movement until we come up against the deadline again in October. Hopefully the EU will refuse a further extension and state that we either revoke or leave. We seem completely incapable of resolving this ourselves.
>
> Indeed. Quite ironic for a movement designed to Take Back Control.
Except 'the movement' have no control over this. It is down to those who have no brlief in Brexit anyway
> Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
>
> I have two mortgages with them.
>
> A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank
>
> https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155
Sounds like they do their accounting on the side of a bus.
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
>
> Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
>
> Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
I have always supported PR, but the major parties oppose it for obvious reasons. They would also apply if a BAME party was surging.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144?s=19
> This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
Some "battle" - Brexit Party is nearly 20% ahead!
Watson?
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
>
> Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
>
> Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
That's a very fair point, but I think people liked to tell themselves that UKIP was still a 'small party' in that it 'shouldn't' have won. Polling at the moment could leave us with someone who isn't a clear winner in vote share getting a majority, or parties with almost identical vote shares getting 300 vs 30 seats. We're basically back to 1983 except it's The Brexit Party and the Tories, not The Alliance and Labour.
> The manner of the election would have only made a small difference because personnel has been a secondary effect.
>
>
>
> Brexit was always going to be difficult because Leavers don’t agree on where we are heading and cannot resolve the contradictions and tensions inherent in Brexit. Not least how you manage the economic impact.
>
> Had the MPs who voted to invoke A50 and got elected by promising to respect the referendum result felt compelled to do so, we’d have left ages ago, even without the ERG.
If they had turned their brains off and ignored the detail we could have left. But your gang would still be complaining and shouting betrayal. That’s what you do.
> It really is remarkable that in an era is unprecedented fragmentation we can have Labour vote share plummeting, the Tories heading for single figures, LDs surging to 2nd, Brexit Party WAY out in front, and the Green surging to double figures, and we can have all that going on and STILL Change UK can't get any traction!
Dunno though, their assumption was pretty much that the LDs had gone away; Once you say they haven't, it's just hard to see what CHUK are for. I mean, there are people who still dislike the LDs because they worked with the Tories, but some of the CHUK MPs were actual Tories...
> Looking at the polling, there is no credible defence of FPTP left.
>
> Forget polls, we have a real life example. UKIP got 12.6% of the votes and 0.15% of the seats in 2015, but because they’re nasty no one cared.
>
> Imagine an all women party or all BAME party had got that representation for those votes. The clamour to change the voting system would have been overwhelming. As it is, I don’t think there’s even been a PB thread about it.
Whatifery at its absolute best.
And at least you finally admit the 2015 version of UKIP was nasty ...
UKIP is nasty, was always nasty, and will always be nasty. And where UKIP was, and went, so the Brexit Party will go.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1127803270104326144?s=19
> > This look like a battle between the Lib Dems and the brexit party
>
> Some "battle" - Brexit Party is nearly 20% ahead!
The LD vote is affluent, southern Remainerism as evidenced by the council elections. Labour now seem to have the same squeeze developing that the Tories have had.
> And there must be a reasonable chance that an extension would not be granted but, if it is, it will likely be until after the next GE.
The length of the extension offered will be determined by EU timetables, not UK ones. I'd therefore expect the next extension to run up to the end of the EU budget period (end 2020), with a commitment from the UK to hold a general election or referendum within that time period to attempt to break the political impasse.
Perhaps we are finally getting there.
> > @Sandpit said:
> > Can someone tell me what the issue is with Metro bank, or post a link?
> >
> > I have two mortgages with them.
> >
> > A £350m “Accounting Error”, according to the bank
> >
> > https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48243155
>
> Sounds like they do their accounting on the side of a bus.
Yes, but the difference is that someone from Metrobank will end up seriously accountable, whereas Boris et al ….
They’re not traditional, they’re not for the working class, they’re not democratic, they don’t want to leave the EU, and they’re not Green, and despite their name, they don’t want to change anything except the clock back three years to Cameroon/Blairism.
> Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.
I think it's more that it's a Euro-election and people are aligning with either hard Remain or hard Brexit, at the expense of more pragmatic/moderate/evasive (take your pick) parties. I met quite a lot of people in the locals who said they'd be glad to vote Labour for those and for a GE, but for the Euros they wanted to send a Remain message.
Anecdata: my long-standing friend who usually votes Tory (and once voted BNP in the Euros) is having doubts about Brexit and plans to vote Green on the basis that he likes the environment and they are anti-Brexit but "not as obsessive about it as the LibDems".
> Graham Brady has done nothing really to offend me, but why does he have such a "punchable" face? And I am a Tory!
The Germans have a word for it, as they always do. Backpfeifengesicht, a face that cries out for a slap.
The EU might well want the UK committed to a new budget cycle. It would have an impact on any new negotiations and the settlement figure.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Looking at the polling, it seems that a lot of voters have decided they don’t support Jeremy Corbyn’s nostalgic, Bennite Socialist vision for the UK after all; or maybe millions backed Labour in 2017 to stop a Tory hard Brexit. Hmmmm.
>
> I think it's more that it's a Euro-election and people are aligning with either hard Remain or hard Brexit, at the expense of more pragmatic/moderate/evasive (take your pick) parties. I met quite a lot of people in the locals who said they'd be glad to vote Labour for those and for a GE, but for the Euros they wanted to send a Remain message.
>
> Anecdata: my long-standing friend who usually votes Tory (and once voted BNP in the Euros) is having doubts about Brexit and plans to vote Green on the basis that he likes the environment and they are anti-Brexit but "not as obsessive about it as the LibDems".
Corbyn has got this doubly wrong. He is going against the will of his members/voters (his supposed raison d'être) and he has forgotten that oppositions are supposed to oppose the government.
Corbyn is offering nothing to Labour voters (remain or leave) to vote Labour this time.
What do you mean ‘whatifery’? It’s a fact that they got 0.15% of the representation for 12.6% of the vote. Do you think that’s objectively fair?
Includes merging NI with income tax.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/12/esther-mcvey-can-restore-trust-party-help-us-win/
To keep May in office another week.
Come on Tom, do keep up!!