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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to bei

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  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > The Chukkers launch just got 15 seconds coverage on the News at Ten.
    >
    > I bet they think that is Bollocks.

    What did he say?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    edited May 2019
    > @steve_garner said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > >
    > > > Some investigations are incredibly perfunctory and barely worthy of the word for that reason.
    > >
    > > Every time I have had the misfortune to call the police, their investigation has been incredibly perfunctory.
    >
    > The Police have more than adequate resources to investigate the alleged crimes it suits them to do so. May I offer Ted Heath as an example?

    It was pretty pathetic to see Wiltshire Police trying to imply that saying they would have wanted to question him was basically proof in itself of the crime, in an effort to save face for the vast cost. (and no, I don't think historical investigations are automatically not worth it, they can be, but there is a level of proportion, and the way some investigations were carried out with a policy of believing allegations rather than treating them as potentially true and seriously investigating them, seems wrong)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I do totally get that very many people think some leaves are not worthy of the name. But unless they can somehow overcome a parliament that has shown the only thing they have been able to agree on is not leaving with no deal, I truly think the leaver holdouts underestimate how big a win even a crappy leave would prove. The desperation and passion people have shown fighting to prevent any exit at all demonstrates just how big a deal it would be if they failed, however soft the Brexit.

    There will be a statue commemorating the 27 Spartans who voted against Brexit at every opportunity...
    I had a colleague who came from Sparta. A more agreeable and reasonable person you could not hope to meet. No ifs or butts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    I hope they've got a big ring to accommodate all these hats.
    Perhaps it would be quicker to have a list of those not running.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    Taxman says

    "Some of these MPs have no self awareness! They have zero appeal to the public IMO. I have spoken to people before who cannot believe that Esther McVey woman thinks she could be PM. She sounds coarse like some Liverpool version of one of the viz's fat slags! "

    The old Remainer snobbishness is on full view here.

    Still, as the new coarse LibDems say, "Bollocks"

    There may be good reasons not to want McVey as PM, but one of them is not the sound of her Scouser's voice!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040
    Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.

    Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.

    Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    The Tories problem is they are the party of May's Brexit Deal when most of the voters are increasingly divided into the No Deal camp, represented by the Brexit Party and the Remain camp, represented mainly by Labour but with the LDs advancing amongst Remainers too.


    Given most polls have only about 10 to 15% putting May's Deal as their first preference it is hard to see the Tories getting much higher than that on May 23rd
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    ChangeUK really need to stop whining, it is making me reconsider whether they should get my vote in the Euros.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    It's no doubt unfair, but Graham Brady looks startling like someone I know who is a right duffer, and it colours my view of him.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Is any vaguely senior Tory MP or Cabinet minister not running to succeed Mrs May? The ballot paper for the first round will be longer than the one for the Euro elections in London!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    Taxman says



    "Some of these MPs have no self awareness! They have zero appeal to the public IMO. I have spoken to people before who cannot believe that Esther McVey woman thinks she could be PM. She sounds coarse like some Liverpool version of one of the viz's fat slags! "



    The old Remainer snobbishness is on full view here.



    Still, as the new coarse LibDems say, "Bollocks"



    There may be good reasons not to want McVey as PM, but one of them is not the sound of her Scouser's voice!

    Taxman must be a Man City fan :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is any vaguely senior Tory MP or Cabinet minister not running to succeed Mrs May? The ballot paper for the first round will be longer than the one for the Euro elections in London!
    If everyone stands and votes for themselves, will they all have to go through to a ballot of the members?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @brendan16 said:
    > https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1126960099799457793
    >
    >
    >
    > Is any vaguely senior Tory MP or Cabinet minister not running to succeed Mrs May? The ballot paper for the first round will be longer than the one for the Euro elections in London!

    Philip Hammond, he hopes to be kingmaker
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126961823910125568

    In fairness, she's probably right. Not sure how close it is to being passed regardless, but I'm not convinced she'd have a better chance if she named her exit. All Tory opponents of her deal would just wait her out and hope to replace her (and her deal) with a new leader and deal they prefered.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > Taxman says
    >
    > "Some of these MPs have no self awareness! They have zero appeal to the public IMO. I have spoken to people before who cannot believe that Esther McVey woman thinks she could be PM. She sounds coarse like some Liverpool version of one of the viz's fat slags! "
    >
    > The old Remainer snobbishness is on full view here.
    >
    > Still, as the new coarse LibDems say, "Bollocks"
    >
    > There may be good reasons not to want McVey as PM, but one of them is not the sound of her Scouser's voice!
    >

    "Bollocks to Brexit" has been a slogan among 'remainers' for months if not years! The speaker was accused of having a bumper sticker on his car with that phrase communicating the message: Bollocks to Brexit. As an aside the speaker told the H of C that it was his wife's sticker on the car (which was also hers).
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.
    >
    > Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.
    >
    > Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.
    >
    >

    He was on the same programme as Soubry. BP polling 3, 4 even 5 times higher than CUK. Clearly a lot on the remain side want to shut down the leave argument, good on the BBC for not been shouted down by the mob and allowing for both sides of the debate to be put forward.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.



    Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.



    Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.

    Didn't you get the memo? I just said Anna Soubry was on QT last night!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1126960099799457793
    >
    >
    >
    > Is any vaguely senior Tory MP or Cabinet minister not running to succeed Mrs May? The ballot paper for the first round will be longer than the one for the Euro elections in London!
    >
    > If everyone stands and votes for themselves, will they all have to go through to a ballot of the members?

    Since you need 2 nominations, and I assume you can nominate yourself, it presumably won't be literally everyone voting for themselves first up. You must be thinking of the first round of a Papal Conclave!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019

    Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.



    Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.



    Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.

    Didn't you get the memo? I just said Anna Soubry was on QT last night!
    And exactly why should the BBC not cover the leader of the party which is leading in the EU election polls and is polling up to 30 per cent?

    Do they really think that is happening because the BBC is too pro Farage and pro Brexit?!

    If Farage was on next weeks HIGNFY and Allen’s appearance was blocked this week it would be a story - but perhaps they have just changed their policy for non political news shows since 2014?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @brendan16 said:
    > Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.
    >
    >
    >
    > Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.
    >
    >
    >
    > Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.
    >
    > Didn't you get the memo? I just said Anna Soubry was on QT last night!
    >
    >
    > Do they really think that is happening because the BBC is pro Farage and pro Brexit?!
    >
    Some. But I presume the more likely theory is along the lines of a common referendum theory - they are being stupid and duped unwittingly by the evil forces of Farage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @The_Taxman said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > Taxman says
    > >
    > > "Some of these MPs have no self awareness! They have zero appeal to the public IMO. I have spoken to people before who cannot believe that Esther McVey woman thinks she could be PM. She sounds coarse like some Liverpool version of one of the viz's fat slags! "
    > >
    > > The old Remainer snobbishness is on full view here.
    > >
    > > Still, as the new coarse LibDems say, "Bollocks"
    > >
    > > There may be good reasons not to want McVey as PM, but one of them is not the sound of her Scouser's voice!
    > >
    >
    > "Bollocks to Brexit" has been a slogan among 'remainers' for months if not years!

    Which is why I was surprised it has taken so long for someone (either LD or Green being the most likely) to take it up so personally. Practically every time I see the sticker it has accompanied a LD one anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @Quincel said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126961823910125568
    >
    > In fairness, she's probably right.

    May is probably right about a number of things, sadly even if that is so it doesn't get us out of our political quagmire.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Still not quite getting why HIGNFY was pulled? Wasn't it on in the run up to the locals? I don't watch it much anymore.
    And we have been having these Euro elections for a while now, so why was it even scheduled up until tonight, as it was obvious politics would, as ever, be prominent?
    Who was, or was not, on QT is irrelevant.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    The irony is it’s probably the FBPErs irate about the BBC giving Farage any airtime that has made the Beeb more concerned about following the rules to the letter.

    So well done. :smiley:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1126966221017165824

    A cracking show? They haven't done one of those in at least 10 years.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040

    The irony is it’s probably the FBPErs irate about the BBC giving Farage any airtime that has made the Beeb more concerned about following the rules to the letter.

    So well done. :smiley:

    Like to see the "following to the letter" challenged by someone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @Quincel said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126961823910125568
    > >
    > > In fairness, she's probably right.
    >
    > May is probably right about a number of things, sadly even if that is so it doesn't get us out of our political quagmire.

    She certainly is always right in her own mind. And that is part of the problem.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Like to see the "following to the letter" challenged by someone.

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1126971181465313282
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Now that we are onto the Biased BBC, it must be only a matter of time before Russophobia rears its head.

    Surely someone has an example of the Russian mafia (or the Russian-Jewish mafia for our Labour Party members) already trying to steal the Euro elections.

    In fact, I clearly saw my Russian Jewish friend today using his laptop.

    He hid the screen when he saw me, so I think he was about to launch a massive preemptive strike against 8-10 Great George Street, sabotaging the brilliant "Bollocks to Brexit" campaign.

    I expect the Russians are already planning a nationwide black out in Remain areas on Election Day.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @algarkirk said:
    > > Yes, it has stolen the limelight from the other Remain parties. I think it's coarse, but when looked at like that, it is probably a success.
    >
    >
    >
    > Remember "Bollocks to Tuition Fees" was a success.
    >
    >
    >
    > It worked & delivered 57 LibDem MPs, many supported by the student vote. Nick Clegg signed to say "I pledge to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative".
    >
    >
    >
    > In retrospect, though, it may have been better for the LibDems, if they had left slightly more ambiguity.
    >
    >
    >
    > In the short term, "Bollocks to Brexit" may work. Longer term, it leaves the LibDems with an indefensible policy.
    >
    > There is another longer term impact too. There are millions of people who may at some point think about voting LD, for all sorts of good reasons, many of them nothing to do with Europe. They are worthy and dull, but they are not ridiculous like UKIP or Corbynites or the BNP or SPGB or the SWP. It is terrible long term policy to be offensively rude to or about voters, especially those whose votes you may seek one day. Their ghastly slogan draws attention to the fact that they think a Brexit of any sort is such a bad policy that you can say F.. off to its adherents without cost - that it's the same as being anti-racist or anti-Trotsky. Wrong. Bad marketing. The slogan sounds like a teenager waving an SWP poster, or the Speaker's wife.

    I think you’re over reacting . They’re not slagging off voters but Brexit itself . You could use the complaint when parties slag off each other , are they aiming that at the politicians or their voters , personally I’d take it as the former .
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    Now that we are onto the Biased BBC, it must be only a matter of time before Russophobia rears its head.

    Surely someone has an example of the Russian mafia (or the Russian-Jewish mafia for our Labour Party members) already trying to steal the Euro elections.

    In fact, I clearly saw my Russian Jewish friend today using his laptop.

    He hid the screen when he saw me, so I think he was about to launch a massive preemptive strike against 8-10 Great George Street, sabotaging the brilliant "Bollocks to Brexit" campaign.

    I expect the Russians are already planning a nationwide black out in Remain areas on Election Day.

    Funny you should mention that, I’m just heading out now to meet my SVR handler for further instruction.
  • Mike’s punt is a runner but needs all 3 of the following to occur

    1) Labour to be overstated in the polls (likely based on predictions before locals)
    2) Remainers coalescing around a punchy Lib Dem Campaign (possible and there seems to be some momentum building)
    3) An ‘event’ resulting in the switchback of a fair chunk of brexit party voters back to Tory (getting the WA through or replacing May before polling day are the only events I can think of)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited May 2019
    Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    edited May 2019

    Now that we are onto the Biased BBC, it must be only a matter of time before Russophobia rears its head.

    Surely someone has an example of the Russian mafia (or the Russian-Jewish mafia for our Labour Party members) already trying to steal the Euro elections.

    In fact, I clearly saw my Russian Jewish friend today using his laptop.

    He hid the screen when he saw me, so I think he was about to launch a massive preemptive strike against 8-10 Great George Street, sabotaging the brilliant "Bollocks to Brexit" campaign.

    I expect the Russians are already planning a nationwide black out in Remain areas on Election Day.

    Funny you should mention that, I’m just heading out now to meet my SVR handler for further instruction.
    чушь брексит
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.

    Er, no. We both know that is not the reason it wasn't run.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Crispin Blunt thinks Ireland is "a hostage".

    https://twitter.com/CrispinBlunt/status/1126886830882938880
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.

    They will put any old rubbish on the TV, there's a lot of hours to fill, an episode being crap would not be a reason to not air it, if you were being serious.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @Luckyguy1983 said:
    > Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.

    There is that. It and QT are really ripe for a mercy killing tbh.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.

    Er, no. We both know that is not the reason it wasn't run.
    Anna Soubry was on QT.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Crispin Blunt thinks Ireland is "a hostage".
    >
    > https://twitter.com/CrispinBlunt/status/1126886830882938880

    You must be pleased they want us as a colony
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Floater said:

    You must be pleased they want us as a colony

    You don't think it was sarcastic mocking of Brexiteer rhetoric about being a vassal state?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    > @williamglenn said:
    > Crispin Blunt thinks Ireland is "a hostage".
    >
    > https://twitter.com/CrispinBlunt/status/1126886830882938880

    Some of the posts under that little bit of footage are so ridiculous they're funny.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    Of course it is possible that the HIGNFY episode was just a bit rubbish and was taken off for that reason.

    Several years too late for that... :)
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129?s=20
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129?s=20

    Oh well in that case I'm sure all those parents will immediately transfer their kids to state schools, right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Stewart Jackson says the Tories were ahead in Peterborough at the local elections

    '..though we lost overall control of the city council, the losses were in North West Cambridgeshire. In Peterborough, we actually outpolled Labour in the cumulative popular vote and swopped one council gain for one loss. The seat is almost wholly urban with just one rural ward east of the city centre.'


    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/05/stewart-jackson-in-peterborough-one-tory-candidate-once-floored-an-opponent-this-contest-may-be-no-less-exciting.html
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    edited May 2019
    Anyhoo. In a no doubt futile attempt to distract you from banging on about Brexit or Oxbridge or Change UK, may I point out that John Wick 3 is released next weekend?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGwc80UXYmQ

    EDIT: "next", not "this".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129?s=20

    The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.

    It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129?s=20
    >
    > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    >
    > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils

    Poor dears. Imagine having to attend Durham, York, or, God forbid, London. Thoughts and prayers.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @Stereotomy said:
    >
    > Oh well in that case I'm sure all those parents will immediately transfer their kids to state schools, right?

    That is in fact what many canny middle-class parents do.

    Independent school till GCSEs, then transfer to a good (state) sixth-form college for A Levels.

    The statistics only refer to the school from which the entrance application is made, so this would count as a state school entrant.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    HYUFD said:

    > @Harris_Tweed said:

    > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.

    >

    >





    The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.



    It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    1) Are the marginal state school pupils who have a chance of an Oxbridge place (but are not a certainty) also losing out to private school pupils?
    2) Does your good former Housemaster understand the implications of the word "marginal"?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    dixiedean said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    > > @Harris_Tweed said:

    > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.

    > >

    > >



    >

    > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.

    >

    > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils



    Poor dears. Imagine having to attend Durham, York, or, God forbid, London. Thoughts and prayers.
    York?

    [Thinks]

    OK, why? What subjects?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129?s=20
    > >
    > > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    > >
    > > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    >
    > Poor dears. Imagine having to attend Durham, York, or, God forbid, London. Thoughts and prayers.

    I believe St Andrews and Bristol now have more private school pupils than Cambridge with Durham only just behind, though Oxford still takes the most private schools pupils even if the trend of private school admissions is down
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @viewcode said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    >
    > > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    >
    >
    >
    > Poor dears. Imagine having to attend Durham, York, or, God forbid, London. Thoughts and prayers.
    >
    > York?
    >
    > [Thinks]
    >
    > OK, why? What subjects?

    Random decent Northern uni. No deeper agenda.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @viewcode said:
    > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    >
    > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    >
    >
    >
    > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    >
    > 1) Are the marginal state school pupils who have a chance of an Oxbridge place (but are not a certainty) also losing out to private school pupils?
    > 2) Does your good former Housemaster understand the implications of the word "marginal"?


    1) I would imagine not as state school admissions are up at both Oxford and Cambridge

    2) He went to Trinity Cambridge himself so I am sure he can tell a marginal Oxbridge candidate from a certainty.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > The irony is it’s probably the FBPErs irate about the BBC giving Farage any airtime that has made the Beeb more concerned about following the rules to the letter.
    >
    > So well done. :smiley:

    I'd imagine it was the Conservative Party that got HIGNFY pulled. They did the same for The Apprentice in 2010. Do any other parties have form for this sort of thing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    > @viewcode said:
    > Anyhoo. In a no doubt futile attempt to distract you from banging on about Brexit or Oxbridge or Change UK, may I point out that John Wick 3 is released next weekend?
    >
    >
    >
    > EDIT: "next", not "this".

    Why they felt the need to add a subtitle on the end of this one I do not know, but the first two were awesome. I'm not usually one for straight up action movies, but like with The Raid series John Wick got through to me.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2019
    The division between state school and independent school students at Oxbridge is a charade. Whether they went to state school or independent school, the students come from very similar middle-class backgrounds.

    Ed Miliband was a state school student at Oxford. Ed Balls was an independent school student at Oxford. Their backgrounds are identical, they are both the sons of professors.

    The most glaring discrimination is in terms of geography. 50 per cent of students come from London and the South East. There are huge swathes of the country -- Wales, Scotland, the North of England -- that are massively under-represented.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    I should probably add a little personal context (/brag) to my chomp at the Oxbridge bit. Number 1 daughter is currently doing very nicely in her second year after 14 years at Good state schools, and a fistful of As (more than I ever got). We sniffed around a few private sixth forms, but (thankfully) she was far happier at the town sixth form college. Had she got 3Bs and lost her place to the kid up the road who scraped 3As after two years of five-person classes and 9-hour school days, I may have wondered if we did right. But having left her to prove she was quite capable of getting in on her own and thriving there, I’ll be damned if I’ll give brain space to this guy who thinks his “marginal” students have a god-given right! Bloody cheek.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2019
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > The division between state school and independent school students at Oxbridge is a charade. Whether they went to state school or independent school, the students come from very similar middle-class backgrounds.
    >
    > Ed Miliband was a state school student at Oxford. Ed Balls was an independent school student at Oxford. Their backgrounds are identical, they are both the sons of professors.
    >
    > The most glaring discrimination is in terms of geography. 50 per cent of students come from London and the South East. There are huge swathes of the country -- Wales, Scotland, the North of England -- that are massively under-represented.
    >

    The difference though is some independent school pupils at Oxbridge are not even middle class but upper class, super rich, even aristocracy or royal, especially if they went to Eton, Harrow or Winchester. You don't get many of those at the local comp
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @viewcode said:
    > > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > >
    > > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    > >
    > > 1) Are the marginal state school pupils who have a chance of an Oxbridge place (but are not a certainty) also losing out to private school pupils?
    > > 2) Does your good former Housemaster understand the implications of the word "marginal"?
    >
    >
    > 1) I would imagine not as state school admissions are up at both Oxford and Cambridge
    >
    > 2) He went to Trinity Cambridge himself so I am sure he can tell a marginal Oxbridge candidate from a certainty.
    >
    Are you an ex-Public school pupil? I certainly didn't pick you for one. That may be taken as an insult, but I am offering it in the spirit of compliment.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    edited May 2019
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > The division between state school and independent school students at Oxbridge is a charade. Whether they went to state school or independent school, the students come from very similar middle-class backgrounds.
    >
    > Ed Miliband was a state school student at Oxford. Ed Balls was an independent school student at Oxford. Their backgrounds are identical, they are both the sons of professors.
    >
    > The most glaring discrimination is in terms of geography. 50 per cent of students come from London and the South East. There are huge swathes of the country -- Wales, Scotland, the North of England -- that are massively under-represented.
    >

    And *that’s* where the accessibility effort should (and I suspect does) go - raising aspirations, the feeling they’d be welcome and realistic chance of getting there among high-achieving kids in Middlesbrough, Stoke or Workington.

    (Edit to add: or Rhondda, Wrexham or Clydebank :))
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > I should probably add a little personal context (/brag) to my chomp at the Oxbridge bit. Number 1 daughter is currently doing very nicely in her second year after 14 years at Good state schools, and a fistful of As (more than I ever got). We sniffed around a few private sixth forms, but (thankfully) she was far happier at the town sixth form college. Had she got 3Bs and lost her place to the kid up the road who scraped 3As after two years of five-person classes and 9-hour school days, I may have wondered if we did right. But having left her to prove she was quite capable of getting in on her own and thriving there, I’ll be damned if I’ll give brain space to this guy who thinks his “marginal” students have a god-given right! Bloody cheek.

    Brag away. You should be proud of her and her achievements. Safe in the knowledge she didn't cost you a fortune, or was "marginal". Bravo to her! And, indirectly, bask in the reflected glory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @dixiedean said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @viewcode said:
    > > > > @Harris_Tweed said:
    > > >
    > > > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1126963350175408129
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils
    > > >
    > > > 1) Are the marginal state school pupils who have a chance of an Oxbridge place (but are not a certainty) also losing out to private school pupils?
    > > > 2) Does your good former Housemaster understand the implications of the word "marginal"?
    > >
    > >
    > > 1) I would imagine not as state school admissions are up at both Oxford and Cambridge
    > >
    > > 2) He went to Trinity Cambridge himself so I am sure he can tell a marginal Oxbridge candidate from a certainty.
    > >
    > Are you an ex-Public school pupil? I certainly didn't pick you for one. That may be taken as an insult, but I am offering it in the spirit of compliment.
    >
    Yes, I went to Tonbridge, though Tonbridge then Warwick (plus Masters at Aberystwyth) rather than Oxbridge.

    I will take it as a compliment then
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    dixiedean said:

    > @viewcode said:

    > > @HYUFD said:

    >

    > > > @Harris_Tweed said:

    >

    > > > This Times piece feels a *little* bit bleaty given the proportion of state v private pupils currently getting to Oxford & Cambridge. If they were letting in people who’d failed their English GCSE, I’d understand.

    >

    > > >

    >

    > > >



    >

    >

    >

    > >

    >

    > > The accusation is made by my old Housemaster, currently Headmaster of Stowe.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > It seems while 'good' private school candidates are still getting in, marginal ones who have a chance of an Oxbridge place but are not a certainty are losing out to state school pupils

    >

    >

    >

    > Poor dears. Imagine having to attend Durham, York, or, God forbid, London. Thoughts and prayers.

    >

    > York?

    >

    > [Thinks]

    >

    > OK, why? What subjects?



    Random decent Northern uni. No deeper agenda.
    Oh OK, cool.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    kle4 said:

    > @viewcode said:

    > Anyhoo. In a no doubt futile attempt to distract you from banging on about Brexit or Oxbridge or Change UK, may I point out that John Wick 3 is released next weekend?

    >

    >

    >

    > EDIT: "next", not "this".



    Why they felt the need to add a subtitle on the end of this one I do not know, but the first two were awesome. I'm not usually one for straight up action movies, but like with The Raid series John Wick got through to me.

    Yeah, I like them too. Somebody (I think it was Chris Stuckmann) complained about 5-10 years ago that action films had gotten too shaky-cam and badly-lit. Then there was The Raid, and Judge Dredd (yes, I know) and John Wick, and suddenly things got good again.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @brendan16 said:
    > Seems the BBC have reinforced what I was ranting about earlier this evening.
    >
    >
    >
    > Farage is getting exceptional coverage. Over and above their own rules.
    >
    >
    >
    > Others being frozen out based on the very same rules.
    >
    > Didn't you get the memo? I just said Anna Soubry was on QT last night!
    >
    > And exactly why should the BBC not cover the leader of the party which is leading in the EU election polls and is polling up to 30 per cent?
    >
    > Do they really think that is happening because the BBC is too pro Farage and pro Brexit?!
    >
    > If Farage was on next weeks HIGNFY and Allen’s appearance was blocked this week it would be a story - but perhaps they have just changed their policy for non political news shows since 2014?

    Polling data should not override evidence from votes cast in elections . Given that no votes have yet been cast - beyond postal votes - for the Brexit Party, it lacks a reasonable basis for being treated as a Major Party in these elections.The Broadcasters should surely not anticipate future results - otherwise they become vulnerable to the charge of being responsible for any electoral success subsequently obtained.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    > @justin124 said:

    > Polling data should not override evidence from votes cast in elections .

    The Farage party won the last European elections, came 2nd the time before that, and (unfortunately) it seems likely they're going to win this time around too.

    Would be utterly absurd for them not to be treated as a major party.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Andrew said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    > > Polling data should not override evidence from votes cast in elections .
    >
    > The Farage party won the last European elections, came 2nd the time before that, and (unfortunately) it seems likely they're going to win this time around too.
    >
    > Would be utterly absurd for them not to be treated as a major party.
    >
    >
    >
    >

    But the Brexit party did not exist at the time of the last EU elections. There is no registered political party in the UK which bears the name 'The Farage Party'.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    > @justin124 said:

    > But the Brexit party did not exist at the time of the last EU elections. There is no registered political party in the UK which bears the name 'The Farage Party'.

    It's not really a meaningful statement though, is it? People are voting for Farage. Nobody knew what UKIP's policies were, other than fk Europe. Ditto his latest venture.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @Andrew said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    > > But the Brexit party did not exist at the time of the last EU elections. There is no registered political party in the UK which bears the name 'The Farage Party'.
    >
    > It's not really a meaningful statement though, is it? People are voting for Farage. Nobody knew what UKIP's policies were, other than fk Europe. Ditto his latest venture.

    But Farage is not exempt from the rules imposed on the Broadcasters by Ofcom/The Electoral Commission. The other parties could reasonably seek Injunctions to ensure compliance.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > The division between state school and independent school students at Oxbridge is a charade. Whether they went to state school or independent school, the students come from very similar middle-class backgrounds.
    >
    > Ed Miliband was a state school student at Oxford. Ed Balls was an independent school student at Oxford. Their backgrounds are identical, they are both the sons of professors.
    >
    > The most glaring discrimination is in terms of geography. 50 per cent of students come from London and the South East. There are huge swathes of the country -- Wales, Scotland, the North of England -- that are massively under-represented.
    >

    So, 50% of the students are from areas which generate 50% of the GDP.

    That sounds pretty proportional to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > The division between state school and independent school students at Oxbridge is a charade. Whether they went to state school or independent school, the students come from very similar middle-class backgrounds.
    > >
    > > Ed Miliband was a state school student at Oxford. Ed Balls was an independent school student at Oxford. Their backgrounds are identical, they are both the sons of professors.
    > >
    > > The most glaring discrimination is in terms of geography. 50 per cent of students come from London and the South East. There are huge swathes of the country -- Wales, Scotland, the North of England -- that are massively under-represented.
    > >
    >
    > So, 50% of the students are from areas which generate 50% of the GDP.
    >
    > That sounds pretty proportional to me.

    Seems we may be more socially mobile in Britain than first thought, above the OECD average, though the US is bottom

    https://twitter.com/N_Rudolfson/status/1126989863444779008?s=20
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    A bit of a niche interest admittedly, but it's going to be touch and go as to whether the ANC stay above 50% in Gauteng. They're currently on 50.26% with 2,639 of 2,771 districts reporting.

    https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html#
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    > @RobD said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > "Police investigate Danny Baker's royal baby tweet
    > >
    > > The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
    > >
    > > https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
    >
    > I assume all other crimes have been solved at this point.

    I suspect they will find no sauce at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Ben Shapiro, by his own admission, demolished by Andrew Neil

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/afneil?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@afneil<;/a> DESTROYS Ben Shapiro! So that's what that feels like ;)
    Broke my own rule, and wasn't properly prepared. I've addressed every single issue he raised before; see below. Still, it's Neil 1, Shapiro 0. <a href="https://t.co/UAtAUtIWtO">https://t.co/UAtAUtIWtO</a></p>;— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) <a href="https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1126894051456774144?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">May 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    > @Andrew said:
    > > @justin124 said:
    >
    > > But the Brexit party did not exist at the time of the last EU elections. There is no registered political party in the UK which bears the name 'The Farage Party'.
    >
    > It's not really a meaningful statement though, is it? People are voting for Farage. Nobody knew what UKIP's policies were, other than fk Europe. Ditto his latest venture.

    He needs them not to know, for every policy he picks up other than Brexit would reduce their appeal.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    1000 seats, all sold, full of cheering supporters.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvJolPztLfM

    It's happening every Rally.

    Lincoln yesterday, Durham today.

    27-30% is looking low..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756


    That is in fact what many canny middle-class parents do.
    Independent school till GCSEs, then transfer to a good (state) sixth-form college for A Levels.
    The statistics only refer to the school from which the entrance application is made, so this would count as a state school entrant.

    That's an interesting statement, because while about 7% of all children are privately educated that figure skyrockets for those doing A-levels to something like 17%. I don't have the figures from last year, but check out the ones for 2015.

    www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/number-of-pupils-attending-independent-schools-in-britain-on-the-rise-figures-show-10215959

    So while your claimed canny middle class students head for the state sector a much larger number seem to be heading the other way.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, my fellow imperial stormtroopers.

    F1: will probably check Bottas' odds for pole. Unfortunately, the happy few races (except last time when I was seconds away from a good bet when the terms changed, humbug) at the start whereby Leclerc or Bottas were significantly underestimated have come to an end and I'd guess the odds will be something rubbish like 3.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Cwsc, that tallies with a recent BBC news segment. It was introduced as being about class determining prospects, but the entire report was about geography (essentially, advantage London).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited May 2019
    The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.

    Both need serious reform and neither are as good or as important as they think they are.

    What worries me most is how grown ups talk about them years after the the fact. These institutions repeatedly tell their customers they are the best thing since sliced bread, so much so that nothing that follows quite measures up. Quite cult like. A bit tragic really.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    > @shiney2 said:
    > 1000 seats, all sold, full of cheering supporters.
    >
    > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvJolPztLfM
    >
    > It's happening every Rally.
    >
    > Lincoln yesterday, Durham today.
    >
    > 27-30% is looking low..

    another one who has trust in polls...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    another one who has trust in polls...

    I thought the whole point of the Brexit Party was that they didn't want Poles?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Jonathan said:

    The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.

    Don't use such hyperbole. Pineapple on pizza still beats them both.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited May 2019
    > @ydoethur said:
    > The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.
    >
    > Don't use such hyperbole. Pineapple on pizza still beats them both.

    There is no division on that subject. None whatsoever. Any dissent is from traitors and saboteurs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    > @shiney2 said:
    > 1000 seats, all sold, full of cheering supporters.
    >
    > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvJolPztLfM
    >
    > It's happening every Rally.
    >
    > Lincoln yesterday, Durham today.
    >
    > 27-30% is looking low..

    I don't think so, but turnout is hard to predict.

    Farage certainly has enthusiastic fans for his No Deal/No Plan Brexit, but there is a low ceiling for him, which is why he has consistently failed with his parties at FPTP seats, even when 3 way marginals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    > @ydoethur said:
    > That is in fact what many canny middle-class parents do.
    > Independent school till GCSEs, then transfer to a good (state) sixth-form college for A Levels.
    > The statistics only refer to the school from which the entrance application is made, so this would count as a state school entrant.
    >
    > That's an interesting statement, because while about 7% of all children are privately educated that figure skyrockets for those doing A-levels to something like 17%. I don't have the figures from last year, but check out the ones for 2015.
    >
    > www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/number-of-pupils-attending-independent-schools-in-britain-on-the-rise-figures-show-10215959
    >
    > So while your claimed canny middle class students head for the state sector a much larger number seem to be heading the other way.

    And, I would expect State schools that send large numbers of pupils to Oxbridge to have quite an upper middle class intake.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: as predicted, Bottas is a measly 2.5 for fastest qualifier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Jonathan said:

    > @ydoethur said:

    > The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.

    >

    > Don't use such hyperbole. Pineapple on pizza still beats them both.



    There is no division on that subject. None whatsoever. Any dissent is from traitors and saboteurs.

    I hate to break it to you but...

    https://www.today.com/food/pineapple-acceptable-pizza-topping-america-decides-t118980
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    O/T I would like to think that only the brightest and the best will go to Oxbridge. As a teacher in a private school myself, I know of 3 or 4 students who applied this year because they were "interested" in it. I was pleased in a way that they were rejected as it maintains the high standards of Oxbridge.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @ydoethur said:
    > > @ydoethur said:
    >
    > > The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Don't use such hyperbole. Pineapple on pizza still beats them both.
    >
    >
    >
    > There is no division on that subject. None whatsoever. Any dissent is from traitors and saboteurs.
    >
    > I hate to break it to you but...
    >
    > https://www.today.com/food/pineapple-acceptable-pizza-topping-america-decides-t118980

    What kind of scoundrel brings the opinions of Americans into a debate?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    > @ydoethur said:
    > The only subject more divisive than Brexit is private education and Oxbridge.
    >
    > Don't use such hyperbole. Pineapple on pizza still beats them both.

    In a restaurant yesterday I noted that one could have gammon with BOTH pineapple and egg.
    Sounds revolting.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr B2,

    "He needs them not to know, for every policy he picks up other than Brexit would reduce their appeal."

    I hate to break it to you, but the only policy the Lib-Dems have is Balls to Brexit and Balls to Democracy. if you asked a hundred LD voters at the moment for another policy, a hundred and one wouldn't know any.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    > @CD13 said:
    > Mr B2,
    >
    > "He needs them not to know, for every policy he picks up other than Brexit would reduce their appeal."
    >
    > I hate to break it to you, but the only policy the Lib-Dems have is Balls to Brexit and Balls to Democracy. if you asked a hundred LD voters at the moment for another policy, a hundred and one wouldn't know any.

    The LDs have gone populist. They have learned the lesson of Trump, Farage and co.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    > @shiney2 said:
    > 1000 seats, all sold, full of cheering supporters.
    >
    > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvJolPztLfM
    >
    > It's happening every Rally.
    >
    > Lincoln yesterday, Durham today.
    >
    > 27-30% is looking low..

    Tomorrow, Nuremberg. :smiley:
This discussion has been closed.