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CUK from 2 to 10%. That is a huge variation. The former means they are strangled at birth.
The latter a remarkable achievement given their newness, lack of a ground game, and a long established party sitting in pretty much the same space.
> 32p you'll never see again!
But if it comes up you'll never hear the last of it.
> first, but all my good work has been abandoned in the previous thread
Yes, but you know what they say - never mind the bollocks...
> > @dixiedean said:
> > 32p you'll never see again!
>
>
> But if it comes up you'll never hear the last of it.
And quite right too!
Top choice for Britain!
> > @Omnium said:
> > first, but all my good work has been abandoned in the previous thread
>
> Yes, but you know what they say - never mind the bollocks...
>
>
I'm not sure you appreciate how lacklustre my comments can be!
Nobody ever got rich by saying they'd disregard dismal diatribes.
I note that Adonis is Labour's 2nd on the list, he has twisted around like a corpse on a gibbet, changing position as the wind blows. UKIP no 2 is that contemptible wretch Benjamin. Widdcombe is no 1 for Brexit. One of the Johnson tribe heads up the list for Change UK.
If I wanted to discredit the European Parliamentarians, I guess that I would have offered up the D'Hondt voting method. The connection between candidate and voter is lost. I hate it.
> Have been looking at the list of candidates in SW, I have little useful information about how they stand. The wretches at the top of the party list have more chance than the ones at the bottom.
>
> I note that Adonis is Labour's 2nd on the list, he has twisted around like a corpse on a gibbet, changing position as the wind blows. UKIP no 2 is that contemptible wretch Benjamin. Widdcombe is no 1 for Brexit. One of the Johnson tribe heads up the list for Change UK.
>
> If I wanted to discredit the European Parliamentarians, I guess that I would have offered up the D'Hondt voting method. The connection between candidate and voter is lost. I hate it.
That's the closed list...you can have D'Hondt with open lists just as easily.
"If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
Bollocks.
I think OGH's bet is an excellent one.
Here's how it could pay off.
1. In the actual ballot box, people are more confused by the difference between UKIP and Brexit than we think. (Remember, these polls are all panels of largely self selecting, politically aware people.) Maybe the BRX:UKIP split is as close as 70:30.
2. Remainers are more fired up. A large number of them signed a petition.
3. The LibDems (thanks to Bollocks to Brexit) manage to persuade people that they are the protest vote to make in favour of Remain.
Let's say BRX:UKIP get 36% between them. Well, if 1 is correct, then BRX may only pick up 24-25%.
And if 2 & 3 are correct, then the LDs could beat that.
A probability? No. A possibility? Not even that. But a better than 150-1 chance, yes.
> BOLLOCKS TO BETTING
So don't bet.
> #brexitparty
>
> Top choice for Britain!
A Watford fan speaks
> > @Ave_it said:
> > #brexitparty
> >
> > Top choice for Britain!
>
> A Watford fan speaks
Big teams come through!
#watford2mancity0
> Looks like everyone has gone LD on here!
>
>
I hope you enjoy the Cup Final. Good to see you posting again.
I would sooner voting SNP or PC rather than the shower of shit standing in the SW.
> FPT, Stodge says
>
> "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
>
> Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
>
> Bollocks.
Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
> > @Ave_it said:
> > Looks like everyone has gone LD on here!
> >
> >
>
> I hope enjoy the Cup Final.
>
> I would sooner voting SNP or PC rather than the shower of shit standing in the SW.
TY!
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > FPT, Stodge says
> >
> > "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
> >
> > Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
> >
> > Bollocks.
>
> Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
>
> It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
Just the end of the LDs in my view. They've traded in for a slogan. They've traded in to become a protest party. Their choice.
Brexit Party 40%
LAB 20%
LD 10%
CON 10%
Small parties 20%
> Have been looking at the list of candidates in SW, I have little useful information about how they stand. The wretches at the top of the party list have more chance than the ones at the bottom.
>
> I note that Adonis is Labour's 2nd on the list, he has twisted around like a corpse on a gibbet, changing position as the wind blows. UKIP no 2 is that contemptible wretch Benjamin. Widdcombe is no 1 for Brexit. One of the Johnson tribe heads up the list for Change UK.
>
> If I wanted to discredit the European Parliamentarians, I guess that I would have offered up the D'Hondt voting method. The connection between candidate and voter is lost. I hate it.
I think your verdict on Adonis is a little unfair. He has been a consistent opponent of Brexit, his recent statement in support of the official Labour line should be viewed with some scepticism. Labour, unlike the Tories, still has some residual ability to enforce message discipline on candidates.
The LD's ballsy (sorry) slogan has won me over.
> Ave it forecast
>
> Brexit Party 40%
> LAB 20%
> LD 10%
> CON 10%
> Small parties 20%
>
>
40% seems a bit high for the Brexit Party.
> > @YBarddCwsc said:
>
> > FPT, Stodge says
>
> >
>
> > "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
>
> >
>
> > Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
>
> >
>
> > Bollocks.
>
>
>
> Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
>
>
>
> It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
>
> It's tipped me to vote LD... I was weighing up LD, CUK or Green (and might well have gone Labour if Corbyn had backed a 2nd Ref).
>
> The LD's ballsy (sorry) slogan has won me over.
>
> Yes, it has stolen the limelight from the other Remain parties. I think it's coarse, but when looked at like that, it is probably a success.
They've been honest in their stated aim all along, so fair play to them. Labour and the Tories have tried to be all things to all men and deserve all they get. The Cuks will fizzle out of existence.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > FPT, Stodge says
> > >
> > > "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
> > >
> > > Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
> > >
> > > Bollocks.
> >
> > Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
> >
> > It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
>
> Just the end of the LDs in my view. They've traded in for a slogan. They've traded in to become a protest party. Their choice.
Being a protest party from 1992 to 2010 worked well: they protested against the Iraq war, they protested against tuition fees, they protested against some local development.
Being opposed to things is a vote winner. (Look at UKIP in the last European Elections.)
> > @Ave_it said:
> > Ave it forecast
> >
> > Brexit Party 40%
> > LAB 20%
> > LD 10%
> > CON 10%
> > Small parties 20%
> >
> >
>
> 40% seems a bit high for the Brexit Party.
Agreed. I doubt they'll be more than 30. Previous Euro election opinion polling has tended to overstate UKIP and it seems quite likely that the same is now happening with BP.
Yes, we're a one-trick pony as we were during the Iraq War for instance but having a USP gets us coverage and attention and frankly no one is interested in our industrial policy (whatever that is).
Being a party of protest is nothing new - we always were and benefitted while the Conservatives floundered in Opposition and when Labour floundered in Government but in 2010 we were faced with having the opportunity to be a part of Government and get some of our policies enacted versus a comfy but futile life on the sidelines.
I've said this before - the Party I joined in the early 80s died in the fires of the Coalition. The LD Party since 2015 is something new - between two thirds and three quarters of its members joined after 2015. It has undoubtedly taken on a pro-EU pro-immigration strongly internationalist identity which is fine for its supporters but it immediately alienates swathes of the electorate.
That's fair enough - trying to build a big enough tent to include everyone is futile - the tent collapses because of the internal contradictions. You can't please all of the people all of the time and a sensible political party doesn't try to run after the voters but plants its banner and says to the voters "this is where we stand".
For now, Brexit is the only game in town but there will come a time when it isn't and the Party faces the same questions Conservatives, Socialists, Greens and others face around building an open, fair and positive society for the 2020s and beyond.
> I'm going to go out on a limb here:
>
> I think OGH's bet is an excellent one.
>
> Here's how it could pay off.
>
> 1. In the actual ballot box, people are more confused by the difference between UKIP and Brexit than we think. (Remember, these polls are all panels of largely self selecting, politically aware people.) Maybe the BRX:UKIP split is as close as 70:30.
>
> 2. Remainers are more fired up. A large number of them signed a petition.
>
> 3. The LibDems (thanks to Bollocks to Brexit) manage to persuade people that they are the protest vote to make in favour of Remain.
>
> Let's say BRX:UKIP get 36% between them. Well, if 1 is correct, then BRX may only pick up 24-25%.
>
> And if 2 & 3 are correct, then the LDs could beat that.
>
> A probability? No. A possibility? Not even that. But a better than 150-1 chance, yes.
4. Bollocks to Brexit prompts some Leavers to vote LibDem as inattentive voters focus on the wrong word.
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > > FPT, Stodge says
> > > >
> > > > "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
> > > >
> > > > Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
> > > >
> > > > Bollocks.
> > >
> > > Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
> > >
> > > It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
> >
> > Just the end of the LDs in my view. They've traded in for a slogan. They've traded in to become a protest party. Their choice.
>
> Being a protest party from 1992 to 2010 worked well: they protested against the Iraq war, they protested against tuition fees, they protested against some local development.
>
> Being opposed to things is a vote winner. (Look at UKIP in the last European Elections.)
Not convinced, but neither are you.
Remember "Bollocks to Tuition Fees" was a success.
It worked & delivered 57 LibDem MPs, many supported by the student vote. Nick Clegg signed to say "I pledge to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative".
In retrospect, though, it may have been better for the LibDems, if they had left slightly more ambiguity.
In the short term, "Bollocks to Brexit" may work. Longer term, it leaves the LibDems with an indefensible policy.
No one thinks Watford will beat Man City next Saturday.
> Looks like everyone has gone LD on here!
>
> To be fair, no one thought James Buster Douglas would beat Mike Tyson. No one thought an amateur would beat Ronnie O'Sullivan in the first round of the world championships.
>
> No one thinks Watford will beat Man City next Saturday.
I do!
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @YBarddCwsc said:
> > > > FPT, Stodge says
> > > >
> > > > "If you want to join the debate, you are more than welcome but don't expect it to be an afternoon tea party at the vicarage."
> > > >
> > > > Right, so that is what passes for "the debate" in the LibDems.
> > > >
> > > > Bollocks.
> > >
> > > Bollocks to Brexit is a good slogan, just look at how it has got attention. It will motivate the vote, though convert few.
> > >
> > > It is no more puerile than the Brexiteers slogans, and considerably more catchy, additionally it sums up the zeitgeist well.
> >
> > Just the end of the LDs in my view. They've traded in for a slogan. They've traded in to become a protest party. Their choice.
>
> Being a protest party from 1992 to 2010 worked well: they protested against the Iraq war, they protested against tuition fees, they protested against some local development.
>
> Being opposed to things is a vote winner. (Look at UKIP in the last European Elections.)
Before 2010 the Lib Dems occupied the important constitutional role of NOTA party. Then they joined the coalition and UKIP became the vehicle of choice for those who wanted to vote for None of the Above and protest against the two main parties. The increased UKIP vote that resulted frightened Cameron into conceding an EU referendum.
The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
>
> > Yes, it has stolen the limelight from the other Remain parties. I think it's coarse, but when looked at like that, it is probably a success.
>
> Remember "Bollocks to Tuition Fees" was a success.
>
> It worked & delivered 57 LibDem MPs, many supported by the student vote. Nick Clegg signed to say "I pledge to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative".
>
> In retrospect, though, it may have been better for the LibDems, if they had left slightly more ambiguity.
>
> In the short term, "Bollocks to Brexit" may work. Longer term, it leaves the LibDems with an indefensible policy.
I think the 6m people signed a petition in support of the Lib Dem position might disagree with you.
We shall see.
If the Lib Dem’s don’t get at least 6 million votes then it’ll been a bit of a disaster.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126950055297024006
He was in a car crash but he wasn't driving. Not a big story. Clickbait.
EDIT: He's still alive.
> Ave it forecast
>
> Brexit Party 40%
> LAB 20%
> LD 10%
> CON 10%
> Small parties 20%
>
>
Ave It!!!!!!!
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126950055297024006
>
>
>
> That's an interesting teaser... does the Sun have some dirt on our Nige by any chance?
Cocaine and hookers?
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1126954285147852800
> I think the 6m people signed a petition in support of the Lib Dem position might disagree with you.
That doesn't mean that the policy (whatever it is) can be delivered.
Does it means ignoring the referendum and returning to the status quo before 2016?
Does it mean running a second referendum? And ignoring that if there is more Brexit Bollocks?
It is a slogan as meaningless as "Build the Wall". The Wall will never be built.
We can't return to the status quo before 2016, because of all the things that have happened.
"What has been done cannot be undone", as the EU Commissioner Lord Hill said regretfully after the vote.
> "Police investigate Danny Baker's royal baby tweet
>
> The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
>
> https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
I assume all other crimes have been solved at this point.
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1126952137169231872
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1126954285147852800
They are too stupid to realise how we feel about them.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > "Police investigate Danny Baker's royal baby tweet
> >
> > The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
> >
> > https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
>
> I assume all other crimes have been solved at this point.
I don't have a lot of sympathy for Baker, but a police investigation is completely bollocks.
> https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1126956462402613249
Isn't it because it's in the campaign period? Fine having leaders on question time etc., but quiz shows?
> https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1126956462402613249
Oh dear. Nurse! People need to read the BBC electoral guidelines. The frothing over old Nige is making these people look like fools.
No Deal Brexit - it's The Dog's Bollocks!
> Maybe the Brexit Party need their own slogan:
>
>
>
> No Deal Brexit - it's The Dog's Bollocks!
>
> Never Mind the Bollocks - Here's the Brexit Party.
> @SandyRentool said:
> Maybe the Brexit Party need their own slogan:
>
> No Deal Brexit - it's The Dog's Bollocks!
Never mind the bollocks, here's Nige
> Maybe the Brexit Party need their own slogan:
>
> No Deal Brexit - it's The Dog's Bollocks!
Yeah, maybe all the parties need a Bollocks slogan.
"Bollocks to this, I'm Going Home for a Wank" could be the ever-absent Change Uk's slogan.
> https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1126952137169231872
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1126954285147852800
Interesting timing in relation to MPs expenses! Its not like the DT do not have an agenda to help the Brexit party. Shame they don't diligently report Farage and Co for their expenses! Not that I am defending the PIGS in Westminster who provide for themselves but see people go hungry through welfare cuts.
> https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1126956462402613249
All this mad frothing is a sign that if LEAVE won another referendum the same people would still throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to implement the result...
> @glw said:
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > "Police investigate Danny Baker's royal baby tweet
>
> >
>
> > The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
>
> >
>
> > https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
>
>
>
> I assume all other crimes have been solved at this point.
>
> The Police are obliged to investigate complaints even if they are absurd, minor, false, etc. They unfortunately can't simply go "piss off we've got yet another stabbing to deal with". I'll be surprised if they take any action.
Some investigations are incredibly perfunctory and barely worthy of the word for that reason.
> https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1126960099799457793
I hope they've got a big ring to accommodate all these hats.
Every time I have had the misfortune to call the police, their investigation has been incredibly perfunctory.
> How low can they go? 4th not assured in that respect.
>
> > @glw said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> >
> > > "Police investigate Danny Baker's royal baby tweet
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The radio presenter was accused of racism when he posted a photo of a suited chimpanzee after the Duchess of Sussex gave birth."
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://news.sky.com/story/police-investigate-danny-bakers-royal-baby-tweet-11716680
> >
> >
> >
> > I assume all other crimes have been solved at this point.
> >
> > The Police are obliged to investigate complaints even if they are absurd, minor, false, etc. They unfortunately can't simply go "piss off we've got yet another stabbing to deal with". I'll be surprised if they take any action.
>
> Some investigations are incredibly perfunctory and barely worthy of the word for that reason.
DB was an idiot. End of story.
I bet they think that is Bollocks.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/1126956462402613249
>
> All this mad frothing is a sign that if LEAVE won another referendum the same people would still throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to implement the result...
Obviously so. Which is why pretty much any leave should have been taken up when it was on offer, because once out the process of rejoining, even with a soft leave, would become so much harder, practically, procedurally and psycologically. Some people will give up, at least for a time, if we were actually out. Because we're not, why should they give up? This is very apparent with the demands any deal, even one which would be in accordance with demands, must be put to a public vote - because that gives a chance for remain.
I do totally get that very many people think some leaves are not worthy of the name. But unless they can somehow overcome a parliament that has shown the only thing they have been able to agree on is not leaving with no deal, I truly think the leaver holdouts underestimate how big a win even a crappy leave would prove. The desperation and passion people have shown fighting to prevent any exit at all demonstrates just how big a deal it would be if they failed, however soft the Brexit.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1126960099799457793
>
> I hope they've got a big ring to accommodate all these hats.
Would you like to rephrase that?
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1126961823910125568
Yes, unfortunately complaints she has no grasp of the likehood of various options that are actually possible are completely true with statements like that. And I say that as someone who agrees that removing her doesn't really change anything substantive.
> https://twitter.com/Puffles2010/status/1126951024680472576
>
>
>
> Anna was on QT last night
Quiet you, Change UK would rather she hadn't been.
>
> > Some investigations are incredibly perfunctory and barely worthy of the word for that reason.
>
> Every time I have had the misfortune to call the police, their investigation has been incredibly perfunctory.
The Police have more than adequate resources to investigate the alleged crimes it suits them to do so. May I offer Ted Heath as an example?
> The Chukkers launch just got 15 seconds coverage on the News at Ten.
>
> I bet they think that is Bollocks.
This is genuinely the first I have heard of it (in fairness it has been a busy day).
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1126960099799457793
> >
> > I hope they've got a big ring to accommodate all these hats.
>
> Would you like to rephrase that?
Some of these MPs have no self awareness! They have zero appeal to the public IMO. I have spoken to people before who cannot believe that Esther McVey woman thinks she could be PM. She sounds coarse like some Liverpool version of one of the viz's fat slags!
>
> > Some investigations are incredibly perfunctory and barely worthy of the word for that reason.
>
> Every time I have had the misfortune to call the police, their investigation has been incredibly perfunctory.
Unfortunately not every perfunctory investigation is, for wont of a better word, justified of course.