> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > FPT > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @rural_voter said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description. > > > > > > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled. > > > > > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest. > > > > Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role. > > Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
Hmm...I thought that you weren't supposed to remember the mind-control ray.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > > Another thought: Wh > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest. > > > > > > > > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer? > > > > > > > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats. > > > > > > > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers. > > > > > > > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections > > > > > > > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015. > > > > > > The fact that the Brexit Party are polling so strongly puts the lie to the idea that UKIP's flaws are not widely known. > > > > > > Plus of course, according to Hope Not Hate they stood less than a quarter of the candidates they had in 2014. You can't vote for a party if they are not standing candidates in your constituency. > > > > > > > Another who can’t read a simple question. > > Tell me again how you vote for a party that is not standing candidates?
The question was why they didn’t do better in the wards where they stood. Which presumably they chose as the better prospects. Certainly not the worse ones.
As it happens UKIP made three gains in Sunderland. So, is the argument that Sunderland leavers are uniquely ill informed about the changes in UKIP, or uniquely extreme such that they didn’t care? Or maybe these angry leavers aren’t quite as numerous so as to push the UKIP vote anywhere much else.
> @Benpointer said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > Nadine Dorries calls for May to go. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1124738978794500097 > > > > > > I'm intrigued to understand how Mrs May going changes the parliamentary arithmetic. > > > > But I guess, a true leaver would just deliberately allow the clock to run down, choosing No Deal Brexit via deliberate inaction. > > > > Which would be ballsy. > > A HoC VoNC would prevent No Deal before the clock ran down completely.
Yes. A "government of national unity" to deliver... to deliver... to deliver what?
And Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't back it. So, how do you get 326 MPs. There's maybe 200 Labourites who might theoretically back Tom Watson (or someone else) as interim PM to do... um something. And maybe the ChUKkers could come on board. And perhaps the SNP for some reason.
And you'd still be well short. And there's still no clear outcome that's backed by 50-something percent of the population.
The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats
The question was why they didn’t do better in the wards where they stood. Which presumably they chose as the better prospects. Certainly not the worse ones.
Actually the real question is, why is Vanilla still more comprehensively buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript?
> @HYUFD said: > > @rottenborough said: > > As I keep saying: > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats
Labour relies mostly on Remain voters in every seat.
> > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
>
> > >
>
> > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
>
> >
>
> > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
>
>
>
> Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
>
> Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
Hmm...I thought that you weren't supposed to remember the mind-control ray.
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced. > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too. > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment. > > > > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections > > > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest. > > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer? > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats. > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers. > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
> @Sean_F said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too. > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment. > > > > > > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections > > > > > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest. > > > > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer? > > > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats. > > > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers. > > > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections > > > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015. > > Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections > > > > > > > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest. > > > > > > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer? > > > > > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats. > > > > > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers. > > > > > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections > > > > > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015. > > > > Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative. > > Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
UKIP are now the Tommy Robinson party, only 10 to 15% of voters maximum will vote for that.
The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that
> @IanB2 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > As I keep saying: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > > > The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats > > Labour relies mostly on Remain voters in every seat.
If Labour loses its Leave voters to the Brexit Party in a Leave seat and Tory voters in that same Leave seat also vote Brexit Party then the Brexit Party will gain that seat from Labour
The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> @Benpointer said: > The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that > > ... 52% of voters who voted... three years ago.
Even if only 30% of voters voted Brexit Party ie barely more than half those who voted Leave, the Brexit Party could still win a majority under FPTP as I posted earlier if it beat both Labour and the Tories as it is currently doing in European elections polls
The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that > > ... 52% of voters who voted... three years ago. > > Same applies to every election! Are Thursday night's Local results somehow not valid given that only around a third of voters took part?
> @HYUFD said: > > @Gardenwalker said: > > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal. > > Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit
> @Gardenwalker said: > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
If he backs leave, he loses his metropolitan remainers; if he backs remain he loses his welsh, midlands and northern leavers; if he backs a second referendum he gives the SNP all the ammunition they need to do the same for SIndy.
He has nothing to gain from any outcome in the short run and Labour cannot ever govern independently whilst this issue is live.
The only way to create any kind of path towards a Labour majority, is to deal quickly and then change the conversation. The Tories have the same problem.
> @Gallowgate said: > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition. > > Your spin is quite something.
As it happens, I cannot abide 'spin' of any kind - one of the many reasons I despised the likes of Blair and Mandelson.
Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
> @IanB2 said: > > The question was why they didn’t do better in the wards where they stood. Which presumably they chose as the better prospects. Certainly not the worse ones. > > As it happens UKIP made three gains in Sunderland. So, is the argument that Sunderland leavers are uniquely ill informed about the changes in UKIP, or uniquely extreme such that they didn’t care? Or maybe these angry leavers aren’t quite as numerous so as to push the UKIP vote anywhere much else.
Yep you just keep telling yourself that Ian. It is exactly the same mindset that led to so many Europhiles being shocked by the referendum result in 2016. You are incapable of understanding the mentality that would lead anyone to vote to leave the EU and so continually underestimate their conviction. I would have thought you would have learnt by now but clearly not.
> @Jonathan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal. > > > > Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit > > They went to the Lib Dem’s on Thursday.
No they didn't, the Tories gained Bolsover and Stoke from Labour and UKIP gained a number of Labour seats in Sunderland.
LD gains were mainly in the South from the Tories, the Tory vote held up better in the North and Midlands and UKIP also did better in the North than elsewhere
Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party.
And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
> @Jonathan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Gardenwalker said: > > > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal. > > > > Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit > > They went to the Lib Dem’s on Thursday.
Which Labour Leave councils went Lib Dem on Thursday?
Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party.
And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
Or maybe it's because Corbyn was completely irrelevant before his election as leader?
But no, it must be a huge conspiracy.
I'm waiting for Corbyn to condemn the thousands of Hamas rockets fired indiscriminately at Israeli towns and cities today.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > > > > @Quincel said: > > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections > > > > > > > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest. > > > > > > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer? > > > > > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats. > > > > > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers. > > > > > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections > > > > > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015. > > > > Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative. > > Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
> @Gallowgate said: > Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party. > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination. > > Or maybe it's because Corbyn was completely irrelevant before his election as leader? > > But no, it must be a huge conspiracy. > > I'm waiting for Corbyn to condemn the thousands of Hamas rockets fired indiscriminately at Israeli towns and cities today.
> @HYUFD said: > > @thecommissioner said: > > Thursday's seat changes; > > Labour losses concentrated in the Leave voting North and Midlands. > > In the more Remain voting South East Labour even gained seats
You can only lose seats where you have seats to lose. They lost them to the Lib Dems.
I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> @John_McLean said: > Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party. > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
One he became leader and LOTO it was inevitable that he would come under greater scrutiny. He's the alternative PM after all. It is hard to explain his actions over the mural, which started this, as being other than antisemitic.
> @kle4 said: > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too.
Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA
> @Jonathan said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > Thursday's seat changes; > > > > Labour losses concentrated in the Leave voting North and Midlands. > > > > In the more Remain voting South East Labour even gained seats > > You can only lose seats where you have seats to lose. They lost them to the Lib Dems.
In the North and Midlands Labour lost more seats to the Tories than to the LDs, certainly outside the big Remain voting cities like Manchester and Liverpool
> @Sean_F said:> > UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess.
We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
> @Quincel said: > > @Sean_F said:> > > UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election. > > That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess. > > We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
If you cared strongly about Brexit, you still had the option of voting Conservative, who despite losing loads of seats, still finished in first place.
And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant.
On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Quincel said: > > > @Sean_F said:> > > > UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election. > > > > That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess. > > > > We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish. > > If you cared strongly about Brexit, you still had the option of voting Conservative, who despite losing loads of seats, still finished in first place.
You could also vote Independent and Independents gained lots of Labour seats in Leave voting Bolsover for example that might otherwise have gone to the Brexit Party
That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess.
We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
Microparties such as Tendring First, Andover Alliance, R4GV and the Oxted & Limpsfield Residents are all well funded, well organised produce good literature and make use of social media. They were able to trounce the local Conservatives with ease as well as seeing off LD, Labour and other challengers.
> @kle4 said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > As I keep saying: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition. > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true. > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere.
All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
> @anothernick said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > As I keep saying: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > > > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition. > > > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true. > > > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them. > > Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere. > > All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2
> @kle4 said: > > @Jonathan said: > > We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit. > > If only. How to make MPs see that though?
The prospect of the Brexit Party taking their seats
> @HYUFD said: > > @anothernick said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > As I keep saying: > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > > > > > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition. > > > > > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true. > > > > > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them. > > > > Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere. > > > > All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight. > > While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2
There's a good chance that the Labour Party Conference will force a referendum on Corbyn in the Autumn.
> @anothernick said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @anothernick said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > > As I keep saying: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161 > > > > > > > > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition. > > > > > > > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true. > > > > > > > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them. > > > > > > Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere. > > > > > > All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight. > > > > While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2 > > There's a good chance that the Labour Party Conference will force a referendum on Corbyn in the Autumn.
Still makes little difference unless enough Labour MPs from Leave seats vote for it, which they won't
> @HYUFD said: > > @kle4 said: > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too. > > Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA
> @kle4 said: > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions.
> @TudorRose said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > > > On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too. > > > > Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA > > Off topic ; 'The Saj'?? Really?
By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
> @kle4 said: > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
> @another_richard said: > > @kle4 said: > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions.
I believe the plan, such as it is, is still just 'go back to the EU and they will change their minds', for those that are not no dealers at any rate. Given most of the ERG did eventually decide the WA was better than no Brexit I am surprised the 'go back' option still has such traction.> @bigjohnowls said: > > @kle4 said: > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > #CorbynsCustomsUnion
He is welcome to the name if the deal is passed as a result. But even if May and the the loyalists are prepared to pass it and even call it CorbynsCustomsUnion, do you think most of Labour would back Corbyn on that? It feels like something they were happy to say they wanted right up until it might be offered.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @kle4 said: > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > #CorbynsCustomsUnion
> @kle4 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > > > Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions. > > I believe the plan, such as it is, is still just 'go back to the EU and they will change their minds', for those that are not no dealers at any rate. Given most of the ERG did eventually decide the WA was better than no Brexit I am surprised the 'go back' option still has such traction.> @bigjohnowls said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802 > > > > #CorbynsCustomsUnion > > He is welcome to the name if the deal is passed as a result. But even if May and the the loyalists are prepared to pass it and even call it CorbynsCustomsUnion, do you think most of Labour would back Corbyn on that? It feels like something they were happy to say they wanted right up until it might be offered.
Majority of PLP will. About 100 PLP ultra Remainers will hate it. Some may leave Labour as a result.
> @ydoethur said: > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination. > > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant. > > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here: > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong > > And here: > > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html > > And here: > > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf > > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window. > > You may find this article of interest: > > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf
> @John_McLean said: > > @ydoethur said: > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination. > > > > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant. > > > > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here: > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong > > > > And here: > > > > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html > > > > And here: > > > > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf > > > > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window. > > > > You may find this article of interest: > > > > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf > > Enjoy: > > https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour
> @John_McLean said: > > @John_McLean said: > > > @ydoethur said: > > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination. > > > > > > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant. > > > > > > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here: > > > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong > > > > > > And here: > > > > > > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html > > > > > > And here: > > > > > > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf > > > > > > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window. > > > > > > You may find this article of interest: > > > > > > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf > > > > Enjoy: > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour > > Or perhaps: > > https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israels-hand-behind-attacks-jeremy-corbyn
Nobody has a workable plan to get Brexit done except possibly Macron, and even that could be averted by the UK revoking. And nobody has a plausible suggestion for what a different PM would do instead, except calling an election, which means the people who have to vote to sack her have to trade 24 months of job security for a bet on an unknown leader, selected by their members, who are mainly nuts.
By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
> @Jonathan said: > We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit.
Well, that much is obvious!
Brexit is an unflushable turd, and the WA is just the beginning of the negotiations, not the end. We are all going to be rather more sick of it soon enough!
> The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception
The EU has its fair share of populist gobshites without including the British, but also on current polling nowhere near enough to stop it functioning. If the centre, centre-left and centre-right have a majority between them, it'll operate fine.
FWIW I disagree with the poster below (can't make out who through the forest of blockquotes) about Labour MPs blocking a deal. IMO there are around 60 who are basically Remain at all costs, 10 who want Leave, and the rest who are as fed up with it as the general public and will vote for a cross-party deal if it happens.
FWIW I disagree with the poster below (can't make out who through the forest of blockquotes) about Labour MPs blocking a deal. IMO there are around 60 who are basically Remain at all costs, 10 who want Leave, and the rest who are as fed up with it as the general public and will vote for a cross-party deal if it happens.
It is more likely the leadership and the kitchen cabinet who will somehow engineer blocking a deal than the average backbench Lab MP.
> @viewcode said: > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party. > > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent. > > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception. > > > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around. > > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
It is not in the hands of Leavers to prevent extensions. That is being driven by the rancid Remainers who see it as a means of preventing Brexit entirely.
> @NickPalmer said: > FWIW I disagree with the poster below (can't make out who through the forest of blockquotes) about Labour MPs blocking a deal. IMO there are around 60 who are basically Remain at all costs, 10 who want Leave, and the rest who are as fed up with it as the general public and will vote for a cross-party deal if it happens. ------------------------------------------------------- Probably me. You know Labour better than I, but when so many of its members and voters want remain they would agree a deal with the hated Tories? It doesn't seem credible.
nd that's before we get into how many Tories will vote for it. Barely 200 voted for the WA initially, and it doesn't seem absurd to think the number backing a cross party deal would be less when you add in people who genuinely hate the CU option, and those for whom cutting a deal with Labour is unacceptable.
And if a deal looks like splitting both parties in two why would either risk splitting themselves when that won't ensure it passes? ------------------------------------------------------ > @Foxy said: > > @Jonathan said: > > We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit. > > Well, that much is obvious! > > Brexit is an unflushable turd, and the WA is just the beginning of the negotiations, not the end. We are all going to be rather more sick of it soon enough! ---------------------------------------------------------- Getting legally out, or confirming we are remaining after all, would at least be making some sort of progress though, even with so much to do afterward for the former.
> By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
>
> They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
>
> The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
>
>
> If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
>
> However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
It is not in the hands of Leavers to prevent extensions. That is being driven by the rancid Remainers who see it as a means of preventing Brexit entirely.
A fair point (although I would have phrased it differently, obvs) but my point remains that blaming the EU for us remaining, when we are repeatedly asking for extensions to stay in, is nonadult behavior. There is a difference between striding out proudly and complaining that somebody else isn't throwing us out.
> @viewcode said: > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party. > > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent. > > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception. > > > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around. > > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
> By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
>
> They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
>
> The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
>
>
> If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
>
> However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
" You already knew that.” Michael Tomasky summarized the elite consensus: “Nearly everyone thinks [Biden] can’t win the nomination.”
“Nearly everyone” — i.e., all my friends and acquaintances in the journalistic and political elite — also thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in to win the general election. "
"...what Biden’s joke did is tell the white working class that he has not defected to the woke, white urban elites."
"And in the critical head-to-head dynamic against Trump, Biden already seems to have gotten into the president’s head.|
> @viewcode said: > > @viewcode said: > > > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party. > > > > > > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent. > > > > > > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception. > > > > > > > > > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around. > > > > > > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?... > > > > In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them > > Entirely possible.
Fuck it. Let's all top ourselves. That'll show 'em.
> @HYUFD said: > > @viewcode said: > > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party. > > > > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent. > > > > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception. > > > > > > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around. > > > > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?... > > In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
> @justin124 said: > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this: > > Lab: 35% (-13) > Con: 31% (-16) > LDem: 11% (+8) > UKIP: 8% (+8) > Grn: 6% (+4) > Other: 9% (+9)
No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections
> @HYUFD said: > > @justin124 said: > > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this: > > > > Lab: 35% (-13) > > Con: 31% (-16) > > LDem: 11% (+8) > > UKIP: 8% (+8) > > Grn: 6% (+4) > > Other: 9% (+9) > > No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections
> @HYUFD said: > > @Xtrain said: > > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit > > > > Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
That scythe will split the Tory vote right through the middle.
> @justin124 said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this: > > > > > > Lab: 35% (-13) > > > Con: 31% (-16) > > > LDem: 11% (+8) > > > UKIP: 8% (+8) > > > Grn: 6% (+4) > > > Other: 9% (+9) > > > > No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections > > I will be surprised if that happens.
If we are still in the EU by by election day which we almost certainly will be it is a strong possibility the Brexit Party will take the seat.
> @Xtrain said: > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit > Absolutely. Why be positive about about anything - it always gets you into trouble!
> @Stereotomy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Xtrain said: > > > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit > > > > > > > Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election > > That scythe will split the Tory vote right through the middle.
It will actually see Tory Leavers defect to the Brexit Party joined by enough Labour Leave voters to see scores of Labour Leave seats fall to the Brexit Party.
Clueless Labour activists trying to use the Brexit Party to divide the Tory vote will soon find they have created a monster that will devour them too
> @HYUFD said: > > @Xtrain said: > > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit > > > > Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
Firm positivity does it - shit or bust. Pussyfooting around fools nobody. well nearly nobody, only nincompoops.
> @justin124 said: > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this: > > Lab: 35% (-13) > Con: 31% (-16) > LDem: 11% (+8) > UKIP: 8% (+8) > Grn: 6% (+4) > Other: 9% (+9)
> @Dura_Ace said: > > @Xtrain said: > > > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit > > > > > > > Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election > > Didn't you see Farage's Brexitparteitag at Blackpool? A CU doesn't count as Brexit and isn't going satisfy the "Labour heartlands".
The average Labour Leave voter cares about Leaving the EU which they voted for and ending free movement, they do not greatly care about a Customs Union and doing trade deals for goods with the USA etc. Diehard Brexiteers care but they are ideological purists.
Brexit with a Customs Union will not see Labour Leave seats fall to the Brexit Party even if it may reduce the Labour majority, no Brexit at all though will see Labour Leave seats very vulnerable to Brexit Party gains
Comments
> FPT > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @rural_voter said:
>
> > > > @kinabalu said:
>
> > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
>
> > >
>
> > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
>
> >
>
> > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
>
>
>
> Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
>
> Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
Hmm...I thought that you weren't supposed to remember the mind-control ray.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > > > Another thought: Wh
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Given
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > > > >
> > > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > > > >
> > > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > > > >
> > > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > > >
> > > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
> > >
> > > The fact that the Brexit Party are polling so strongly puts the lie to the idea that UKIP's flaws are not widely known.
> > >
> > > Plus of course, according to Hope Not Hate they stood less than a quarter of the candidates they had in 2014. You can't vote for a party if they are not standing candidates in your constituency.
> > >
> >
> > Another who can’t read a simple question.
>
> Tell me again how you vote for a party that is not standing candidates?
The question was why they didn’t do better in the wards where they stood. Which presumably they chose as the better prospects. Certainly not the worse ones.
As it happens UKIP made three gains in Sunderland. So, is the argument that Sunderland leavers are uniquely ill informed about the changes in UKIP, or uniquely extreme such that they didn’t care? Or maybe these angry leavers aren’t quite as numerous so as to push the UKIP vote anywhere much else.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > Nadine Dorries calls for May to go.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1124738978794500097
>
>
>
>
>
> I'm intrigued to understand how Mrs May going changes the parliamentary arithmetic.
>
>
>
> But I guess, a true leaver would just deliberately allow the clock to run down, choosing No Deal Brexit via deliberate inaction.
>
>
>
> Which would be ballsy.
>
> A HoC VoNC would prevent No Deal before the clock ran down completely.
Yes. A "government of national unity" to deliver... to deliver... to deliver what?
And Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't back it. So, how do you get 326 MPs. There's maybe 200 Labourites who might theoretically back Tom Watson (or someone else) as interim PM to do... um something. And maybe the ChUKkers could come on board. And perhaps the SNP for some reason.
And you'd still be well short. And there's still no clear outcome that's backed by 50-something percent of the population.
> As I keep saying:
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/michael-gove-unveils-plans-to-take-control-of-holyrood-cash-1-4920727?fbclid=IwAR3WmwcyKGf-R4WBxHVfkVWtnsjoTObqU4e9dQ5Upt0KoALYDdneyrcJF7Y
> > @rottenborough said:
> > As I keep saying:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
>
> The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats
Labour relies mostly on Remain voters in every seat.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > >
> > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > >
> > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > >
> > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > >
> > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> >
> > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> >
> > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> >
> > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
>
> Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > >
> > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > >
> > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > >
> > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > >
> > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > >
> > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> >
> > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
>
> Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > > >
> > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > > >
> > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > > >
> > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > > >
> > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > >
> > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
> >
> > Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
>
> Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
UKIP are now the Tommy Robinson party, only 10 to 15% of voters maximum will vote for that.
The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > As I keep saying:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> >
> > The Brexit Party beating Labour in the European Parliament elections though and the Brexit Party then gaining the Peterborough by election from Labour shortly after might concentrate Corbyn's mind and the minds of Labour MPs in Leave seats
>
> Labour relies mostly on Remain voters in every seat.
If Labour loses its Leave voters to the Brexit Party in a Leave seat and Tory voters in that same Leave seat also vote Brexit Party then the Brexit Party will gain that seat from Labour
> As I keep saying:
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that
>
> ... 52% of voters who voted... three years ago.
Even if only 30% of voters voted Brexit Party ie barely more than half those who voted Leave, the Brexit Party could still win a majority under FPTP as I posted earlier if it beat both Labour and the Tories as it is currently doing in European elections polls
> The Brexit Party though is a broad coalition that just wants to deliver Brexit and 52% of voters voted for that
>
> ... 52% of voters who voted... three years ago.
>
> Same applies to every election! Are Thursday night's Local results somehow not valid given that only around a third of voters took part?
Well said Sunil
> Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit
> > @Gardenwalker said:
> > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
>
> Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit
They went to the Lib Dem’s on Thursday.
> Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
If he backs leave, he loses his metropolitan remainers; if he backs remain he loses his welsh, midlands and northern leavers; if he backs a second referendum he gives the SNP all the ammunition they need to do the same for SIndy.
He has nothing to gain from any outcome in the short run and Labour cannot ever govern independently whilst this issue is live.
The only way to create any kind of path towards a Labour majority, is to deal quickly and then change the conversation. The Tories have the same problem.
> The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
>
> Your spin is quite something.
As it happens, I cannot abide 'spin' of any kind - one of the many reasons I despised the likes of Blair and Mandelson.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > As I keep saying:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
>
> The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
>
> The question was why they didn’t do better in the wards where they stood. Which presumably they chose as the better prospects. Certainly not the worse ones.
>
> As it happens UKIP made three gains in Sunderland. So, is the argument that Sunderland leavers are uniquely ill informed about the changes in UKIP, or uniquely extreme such that they didn’t care? Or maybe these angry leavers aren’t quite as numerous so as to push the UKIP vote anywhere much else.
Yep you just keep telling yourself that Ian. It is exactly the same mindset that led to so many Europhiles being shocked by the referendum result in 2016. You are incapable of understanding the mentality that would lead anyone to vote to leave the EU and so continually underestimate their conviction. I would have thought you would have learnt by now but clearly not.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
> >
> > Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit
>
> They went to the Lib Dem’s on Thursday.
No they didn't, the Tories gained Bolsover and Stoke from Labour and UKIP gained a number of Labour seats in Sunderland.
LD gains were mainly in the South from the Tories, the Tory vote held up better in the North and Midlands and UKIP also did better in the North than elsewhere
And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Gardenwalker said:
> > > Corbyn has nothing to gain by agreeing any Brexit deal.
> >
> > Yet plenty of heartland Labour Leave seats to lose to the Brexit Party if he keeps blocking Brexit
>
> They went to the Lib Dem’s on Thursday.
Which Labour Leave councils went Lib Dem on Thursday?
But no, it must be a huge conspiracy.
I'm waiting for Corbyn to condemn the thousands of Hamas rockets fired indiscriminately at Israeli towns and cities today.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > > >
> > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > > >
> > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > > >
> > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > > >
> > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > >
> > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
> >
> > Five sixths of seats were not contested by UKIP. That left the Conservatives, and many voters had all sorts of reasons not to vote Conservative.
>
> Another one. The question is why voters didn’t take that option (except in Sunderland) where it was on offer. 20% of wards across the country is a good enough sample. The other 80% of wards are irrelevant to the question.
UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
> Thursday's seat changes;
Labour losses concentrated in the Leave voting North and Midlands.
In the more Remain voting South East Labour even gained seats
> Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party.
>
> And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
>
> Or maybe it's because Corbyn was completely irrelevant before his election as leader?
>
> But no, it must be a huge conspiracy.
>
> I'm waiting for Corbyn to condemn the thousands of Hamas rockets fired indiscriminately at Israeli towns and cities today.
Thousands?
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > Thursday's seat changes;
>
> Labour losses concentrated in the Leave voting North and Midlands.
>
> In the more Remain voting South East Labour even gained seats
You can only lose seats where you have seats to lose. They lost them to the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
> Corbyn doesn't need to be involved in any deal, the Tories on the other hand need any excuse to not be the guilty party.
>
> And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
One he became leader and LOTO it was inevitable that he would come under greater scrutiny. He's the alternative PM after all. It is hard to explain his actions over the mural, which started this, as being other than antisemitic.
> I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
>
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too.
Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > Thursday's seat changes;
> >
> > Labour losses concentrated in the Leave voting North and Midlands.
> >
> > In the more Remain voting South East Labour even gained seats
>
> You can only lose seats where you have seats to lose. They lost them to the Lib Dems.
In the North and Midlands Labour lost more seats to the Tories than to the LDs, certainly outside the big Remain voting cities like Manchester and Liverpool
> UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess.
We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
> > @Sean_F said:>
> > UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
>
> That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess.
>
> We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
If you cared strongly about Brexit, you still had the option of voting Conservative, who despite losing loads of seats, still finished in first place.
On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong
And here:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html
And here:
https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf
And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
You may find this article of interest:
http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%2520Corbyn%2520pdf.pdf
> > @Quincel said:
> > > @Sean_F said:>
> > > UKIP are completely disorganised; very inexperienced at fighting local elections; and choose high profile candidates who joke about raping Jess Philips. Those sorts of things make it hard to win a big vote share at a local election.
> >
> > That's all true, but it isn't about big vote share. The fact is they were up a bit in places they ran but not very much. I doubt all the hundreds of Indys who won had great organisation, and the Greens have never won more than 20 net gains before - let alone almost 200. The fact is that the other Others benefited from a huge rising tide which lifted almost all boats, but UKIP still didn't. That makes it fair to ask what they lacked or had which even a very varied range of Indies didn't - and their Brexit stance is a fair guess.
> >
> > We can't know for sure, and it may well have been more than one thing. But the protest vote seemed to go for absolutely everyone else, so UKIP's failure to capitalise is noteworthy and drawing conclusions from it not foolish.
>
> If you cared strongly about Brexit, you still had the option of voting Conservative, who despite losing loads of seats, still finished in first place.
You could also vote Independent and Independents gained lots of Labour seats in Leave voting Bolsover for example that might otherwise have gone to the Brexit Party
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > As I keep saying:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> >
> > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
>
> Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
>
> Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere.
All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > As I keep saying:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> > >
> > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> >
> > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
> >
> > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
>
> Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere.
>
> All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2
> We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit.
If only. How to make MPs see that though?
> > @Jonathan said:
> > We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit.
>
> If only. How to make MPs see that though?
The prospect of the Brexit Party taking their seats
> > @anothernick said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > As I keep saying:
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> > > >
> > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> > >
> > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
> > >
> > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
> >
> > Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere.
> >
> > All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
>
> While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2
There's a good chance that the Labour Party Conference will force a referendum on Corbyn in the Autumn.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @anothernick said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > > @justin124 said:
> > > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > > As I keep saying:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> > > > >
> > > > > The psychology though might be quite different in that May could well be seen in such a scenario as bowing to Corbyn rather than vice versa.That was not true of the Coalition.
> > > >
> > > > Not very credible as a political move though, because even if it is true (and certainly Mays' Tory opponents will frame it as her bowing to Corbyn, indeed they did with her just talking to him) the key problem is that most Lab MPs do not want a better Brexit deal, a Labour Brexit, they want Remain. I know there are some who are willing to leave, and others who say with words if not actions that they do not want a referendum, but a lot of them really do not, and so May bowing to Corbyn would not work even if true.
> > > >
> > > > Hence the demands from so many Lab MPs for a 'confirmatory referendum' for any deal, a demand clearly designed just in case May really did give them what they claimed they wanted. OK the leadership have not gone so far on that, yet, but it does mean that even if the leadership want to accept a deal they won't carry enough votes with them.
> > >
> > > Neither May nor Corbyn can deliver on a deal. They are leaders in name only, their influence over the majority of their parliamentary parties is close to zero. The talks are a pretence, they will lead nowhere.
> > >
> > > All sides are digging themselves deeper and deeper into their entrenched positions and a solution is not in sight.
> >
> > While the Brexit Party will grow stronger and stronger the longer we stay in the EU and the LDs will also expand further while Corbyn continues to refuse to commit to EUref2
>
> There's a good chance that the Labour Party Conference will force a referendum on Corbyn in the Autumn.
Still makes little difference unless enough Labour MPs from Leave seats vote for it, which they won't
> > @kle4 said:
> > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
>
> On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too.
>
> Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA
Off topic ; 'The Saj'?? Really?
> I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
>
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions.
> Trump v Higgins.
>
> Should be entertaining.
Typo - it's spelt 'Biden'
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
> >
> > On that I agree, no Brexit will wipe out the Tories for a generation and quite possibly Labour too.
> >
> > Deal plus Customs Union will not satisfy the diehards but the average voter will move on especially as the PD is not binding anyway unlike the WA
>
> Off topic ; 'The Saj'?? Really?
So it seems.
There is also 'The Truss':
They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
> I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
>
> https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
#CorbynsCustomsUnion
> > @kle4 said:
> > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
>
> Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions.
I believe the plan, such as it is, is still just 'go back to the EU and they will change their minds', for those that are not no dealers at any rate. Given most of the ERG did eventually decide the WA was better than no Brexit I am surprised the 'go back' option still has such traction.> @bigjohnowls said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
>
> #CorbynsCustomsUnion
He is welcome to the name if the deal is passed as a result. But even if May and the the loyalists are prepared to pass it and even call it CorbynsCustomsUnion, do you think most of Labour would back Corbyn on that? It feels like something they were happy to say they wanted right up until it might be offered.
> > @kle4 said:
> > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
>
> #CorbynsCustomsUnion
Bailing out the Tories.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
> >
> > Do the 'Brexiteers', more accurately the 'Remain and Complain' gang, offer any constructive suggestions.
>
> I believe the plan, such as it is, is still just 'go back to the EU and they will change their minds', for those that are not no dealers at any rate. Given most of the ERG did eventually decide the WA was better than no Brexit I am surprised the 'go back' option still has such traction.> @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I feel like these 'wipe out party for a generation' cries are a self fulfilling prophecy. Also since no brexit will create the same outcome, unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat somehow it's a choice between options which lead to that outcome, and if one is better than the other.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1124766111403212802
> >
> > #CorbynsCustomsUnion
>
> He is welcome to the name if the deal is passed as a result. But even if May and the the loyalists are prepared to pass it and even call it CorbynsCustomsUnion, do you think most of Labour would back Corbyn on that? It feels like something they were happy to say they wanted right up until it might be offered.
Majority of PLP will. About 100 PLP ultra Remainers will hate it. Some may leave Labour as a result.
> And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
>
> What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant.
>
> On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong
>
> And here:
>
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html
>
> And here:
>
> https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf
>
> And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
>
> You may find this article of interest:
>
> http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf
Enjoy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour
> > @ydoethur said:
> > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
> >
> > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant.
> >
> > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong
> >
> > And here:
> >
> > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html
> >
> > And here:
> >
> > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf
> >
> > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
> >
> > You may find this article of interest:
> >
> > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf
>
> Enjoy:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour
Or perhaps:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israels-hand-behind-attacks-jeremy-corbyn
> > @John_McLean said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might end up very wealthy, but use your own imagination.
> > >
> > > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant.
> > >
> > > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
> > >
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong
> > >
> > > And here:
> > >
> > > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html
> > >
> > > And here:
> > >
> > > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf
> > >
> > > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
> > >
> > > You may find this article of interest:
> > >
> > > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf
> >
> > Enjoy:
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour
>
> Or perhaps:
>
> https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israels-hand-behind-attacks-jeremy-corbyn
Then again :
https://electronicintifada.net/content/israel-arming-neo-nazis-ukraine/24876
> > @John_McLean said:
> > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > @ydoethur said:
> > > > And I would remind OGH and others who continue saying Corbyn is anti-semitic, until he was elected as Leader of the Labour Party in 2015, there were 18 media mentions of anti-Semitism and nearly all were of his support in fighting it, since then, there have been over 10 thousand implying his anti-Semitism. Some might say that there might be a campaign to slander and libel him. Of course I would not like to imply that if Corbyn decides to take some of the accusers to court he might
> > > >
> > > > What is your source for this? I'm guessing (although I could be wrong) it's Skwawkbox. Skwawkbox is infamous for falsifying figures and coming up with implausible lies to divert attention from Corbyn's unsavoury past. It is like Breitbart only less colourfully presented and run by an unstable conspiracy theorist of limited intellect but boundless imagination. I particularly remember the claim that he had signed more EDM condemning Iran than any other MP - conveniently overlooking the fact that this was still fewer EDMs than he had signed supporting the Iranian government or indeed Aberystwyth Farmers' Market, and as he signed thirty times as many EDMs as every other MP anyway, the statistic was hardly significant.
> > > >
> > > > On your substantive point, I am afraid you are simply wrong. There was a great deal of media comment on his links to Paul Eisen alone before he was elected. See for example, here:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/18/jeremy-corbyn-antisemitism-claims-ludicrous-and-wrong
> > > >
> > > > And here:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/cathy-newman-defends-biased-interview-with-jeremy-corbyn-and-claims-labour-leadership-hopeful-was-10460155.html
> > > >
> > > > And here:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.ft.com/content/c2c5c47a-4273-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf
> > > >
> > > > And that's just the Labour leaning papers. I came across eight more examples of right wing papers or Jewish papers, which you would probably reject as irrelevant, just on a google trawl. So that immediately boots your claim about 'eighteen' and 'vast majority' out of the window.
> > > >
> > > > You may find this article of interest:
> > > >
> > > > http://shura.shu.ac.uk/14585/1/Jeremy%20Corbyn%20pdf.pdf
> > >
> > > Enjoy:
> > >
> > > https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-plotted-against-mps-set-up-political-groups-labour
> >
> > Or perhaps:
> >
> > https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israels-hand-behind-attacks-jeremy-corbyn
>
> Then again :
> https://electronicintifada.net/content/israel-arming-neo-nazis-ukraine/24876
>
Or how about:
https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/blog/antisemitism-no-justification-for-singling-out-labour/?fbclid=IwAR0Hl7mvrPfqnYtviFZEcloq095rSPDq7NQklR0gs8QUB2gjYn0jDlLWOj8
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-how-john-smiths-death-changed-the-course-of-british-history-11710748?fbclid=IwAR3qn3P7wnyDrpvGKR3iga8OhDOdp7RyN-HwW5M5bHUGAg-c0Ve3Fqxq1sw
Nobody has a workable plan to get Brexit done except possibly Macron, and even that could be averted by the UK revoking. And nobody has a plausible suggestion for what a different PM would do instead, except calling an election, which means the people who have to vote to sack her have to trade 24 months of job security for a bet on an unknown leader, selected by their members, who are mainly nuts.
She could go on and on.
However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
> We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit.
Well, that much is obvious!
Brexit is an unflushable turd, and the WA is just the beginning of the negotiations, not the end. We are all going to be rather more sick of it soon enough!
The EU has its fair share of populist gobshites without including the British, but also on current polling nowhere near enough to stop it functioning. If the centre, centre-left and centre-right have a majority between them, it'll operate fine.
> By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
>
> They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
>
> The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
>
>
> If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
>
> However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
It is not in the hands of Leavers to prevent extensions. That is being driven by the rancid Remainers who see it as a means of preventing Brexit entirely.
> FWIW I disagree with the poster below (can't make out who through the forest of blockquotes) about Labour MPs blocking a deal. IMO there are around 60 who are basically Remain at all costs, 10 who want Leave, and the rest who are as fed up with it as the general public and will vote for a cross-party deal if it happens.
-------------------------------------------------------
Probably me. You know Labour better than I, but when so many of its members and voters want remain they would agree a deal with the hated Tories? It doesn't seem credible.
nd that's before we get into how many Tories will vote for it. Barely 200 voted for the WA initially, and it doesn't seem absurd to think the number backing a cross party deal would be less when you add in people who genuinely hate the CU option, and those for whom cutting a deal with Labour is unacceptable.
And if a deal looks like splitting both parties in two why would either risk splitting themselves when that won't ensure it passes?
------------------------------------------------------
> @Foxy said:
> > @Jonathan said:
> > We need to bury Brexit before it buries us. Whatever touches Brexit turns to shit.
>
> Well, that much is obvious!
>
> Brexit is an unflushable turd, and the WA is just the beginning of the negotiations, not the end. We are all going to be rather more sick of it soon enough!
----------------------------------------------------------
Getting legally out, or confirming we are remaining after all, would at least be making some sort of progress though, even with so much to do afterward for the former.
> By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
>
> They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
>
> The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
>
>
> If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
>
> However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
" You already knew that.” Michael Tomasky summarized the elite consensus: “Nearly everyone thinks [Biden] can’t win the nomination.”
“Nearly everyone” — i.e., all my friends and acquaintances in the journalistic and political elite — also thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in to win the general election. "
"...what Biden’s joke did is tell the white working class that he has not defected to the woke, white urban elites."
"And in the critical head-to-head dynamic against Trump, Biden already seems to have gotten into the president’s head.|
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/andrew-sullivan-why-biden-may-be-the-best-bet-to-beat-trump.html
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
>
> >
>
> > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
>
> >
>
> > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
>
> >
>
> > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
>
>
>
> In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
>
> Entirely possible.
Fuck it. Let's all top ourselves. That'll show 'em.
> > @viewcode said:
> > By the time the autumn is here, the EU establishment will be dealing with a messy EU parliamentary arrangement where the British are still in and being increasingly represented by the Brexit Party.
> >
> > They will be sitting with an expanded group of eurosceptic, anti-immigration, anti-integration or national freedom and democracy sorts that will win in Poland, Hungary and Italy; who will acquire increased representation in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Estonia and who will be represented by the Spanish for the first time as well. This will be on top of the already sizeable French contingent.
> >
> > The EU needs an end to Brexit so that it can function in what is already likely to be the most fractured european parliament since it's inception.
> >
> >
> > If you want an end to Brexit, all you have to do is stop asking the EU for an extension to stay in. This conceit by Leavers that the EU is malevolently keeping the UK in the EU is one of the most weakminded, unadult, and depressing they have produced so far. If you want to leave, leave. Stop f*****g around.
> >
> > However, if you think "remain and complain" is a valid approach, then please feel free to stay in the EU for as long as you wish. Shall we say five years?...
>
> In 5 years time if the main parties have not taken us out of the EU, a Brexit Party Government may have already been elected to do it for them
Are you English?
> I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
>
Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
Lab: 35% (-13)
Con: 31% (-16)
LDem: 11% (+8)
UKIP: 8% (+8)
Grn: 6% (+4)
Other: 9% (+9)
> Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this:
>
> Lab: 35% (-13)
> Con: 31% (-16)
> LDem: 11% (+8)
> UKIP: 8% (+8)
> Grn: 6% (+4)
> Other: 9% (+9)
No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections
> > @justin124 said:
> > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this:
> >
> > Lab: 35% (-13)
> > Con: 31% (-16)
> > LDem: 11% (+8)
> > UKIP: 8% (+8)
> > Grn: 6% (+4)
> > Other: 9% (+9)
>
> No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections
I will be surprised if that happens.
> > @Xtrain said:
> > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
> >
>
> Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
That scythe will split the Tory vote right through the middle.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this:
> > >
> > > Lab: 35% (-13)
> > > Con: 31% (-16)
> > > LDem: 11% (+8)
> > > UKIP: 8% (+8)
> > > Grn: 6% (+4)
> > > Other: 9% (+9)
> >
> > No clear lead for Labour or the Tories and both well under 50% and with Peterborough having voted over 60% Leave the Brexit Party will fancy their chances of taking it with the by election taking place less then 2 weeks after the likely Brexit Party victory in the European elections
>
> I will be surprised if that happens.
If we are still in the EU by by election day which we almost certainly will be it is a strong possibility the Brexit Party will take the seat.
> I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
>
Absolutely. Why be positive about about anything - it always gets you into trouble!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Xtrain said:
> > > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
> > >
> >
> > Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
>
> That scythe will split the Tory vote right through the middle.
It will actually see Tory Leavers defect to the Brexit Party joined by enough Labour Leave voters to see scores of Labour Leave seats fall to the Brexit Party.
Clueless Labour activists trying to use the Brexit Party to divide the Tory vote will soon find they have created a monster that will devour them too
> > @Xtrain said:
> > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
> >
>
> Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
Firm positivity does it - shit or bust. Pussyfooting around fools nobody. well nearly nobody, only nincompoops.
> Apparently the Local Election results for the wards within the Peterborough constituency came up with this:
>
> Lab: 35% (-13)
> Con: 31% (-16)
> LDem: 11% (+8)
> UKIP: 8% (+8)
> Grn: 6% (+4)
> Other: 9% (+9)
and?
> > @Xtrain said:
>
> > I agree with Rottenborough on this. Labour cannot afford to facilitate any Brexit
>
> >
>
>
>
> Then the Brexit Party will run a scythe through the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands at the next general election
>
> Didn't you see Farage's Brexitparteitag at Blackpool? A CU doesn't count as Brexit and isn't going satisfy the "Labour heartlands".
The average Labour Leave voter cares about Leaving the EU which they voted for and ending free movement, they do not greatly care about a Customs Union and doing trade deals for goods with the USA etc. Diehard Brexiteers care but they are ideological purists.
Brexit with a Customs Union will not see Labour Leave seats fall to the Brexit Party even if it may reduce the Labour majority, no Brexit at all though will see Labour Leave seats very vulnerable to Brexit Party gains
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124714731695149057
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124668513984155648