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I don't bet on politics, but colleague has refused to take 50p on UK to be in EU and May to be PM at the end of this year
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I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
May has been very surprising, but I think the Locals being even worse than the worst predictions adds to the cumulative weight of reasons that she will be made to go even if no deal is agreed - a reasonable night and even the hammering they will get in the Euros might have been survivable, but even though those seeking to replace her appear to have no plan - or unicorn plans - she doesn't seem to be adding any value where she is.
> Just to show that very strange results can occur, Sinn Fein and SDLP no longer have an overall majority on Fermanagh & Omagh Council. I reckon you would have got odds of 100-1 against that happening, a month ago.
Alliance surge ?
> "Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections."
>
> I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
>
> May has been very surprising, but I think the Locals being even worse than the worst predictions adds to the cumulative weight of reasons that she will be made to go even if no deal is agreed - a reasonable night and even the hammering they will get in the Euros might have been survivable, but even though those seeking to replace her appear to have no plan - or unicorn plans - she doesn't seem to be adding any value where she is.
May will only go before December if the Cabinet force her out. There is no other way of getting rid of her. And the cabinet will only force her out if the leadership contenders within it decide its in their interests to do so. if the Tories are hammered out of sight in the Euros the likelihood of a Johnson victory in any contest will increase. And so the likelihood of the cabinet moving against May will diminish.
> If the speeches at the Scottish Conservative conference are anything to go by, the union is on its last legs.
You were saying that even before the 2017 general election when the SNP lost a third of their seats.
> If the speeches at the Scottish Conservative conference are anything to go by, the union is on its last legs.
Fortunately, they aren't anything to go by.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > Just to show that very strange results can occur, Sinn Fein and SDLP no longer have an overall majority on Fermanagh & Omagh Council. I reckon you would have got odds of 100-1 against that happening, a month ago.
>
> Alliance surge ?
Alliance, Independent Labour, a health service campaigner, an environmental campaigner, and an independent nationalist.
> "Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections."
>
> I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
>
> May has been very surprising, but I think the Locals being even worse than the worst predictions adds to the cumulative weight of reasons that she will be made to go even if no deal is agreed - a reasonable night and even the hammering they will get in the Euros might have been survivable, but even though those seeking to replace her appear to have no plan - or unicorn plans - she doesn't seem to be adding any value where she is.
Its curious that a mid term government NOT being behind the Opposition at the local elections is now described as 'even worse than the worst predictions'.
Yet another thing in which terminology has moved to the extremes.
> > @kle4 said:
> > "Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections."
> >
> > I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
> >
> > May has been very surprising, but I think the Locals being even worse than the worst predictions adds to the cumulative weight of reasons that she will be made to go even if no deal is agreed - a reasonable night and even the hammering they will get in the Euros might have been survivable, but even though those seeking to replace her appear to have no plan - or unicorn plans - she doesn't seem to be adding any value where she is.
>
> Its curious that a mid term government NOT being behind the Opposition at the local elections is now described as 'even worse than the worst predictions'.
>
> Yet another thing in which terminology has moved to the extremes.
All things are relative. Yes in historical terms it could have been worse, in not having a lead or being equal in share at least, but 1300 was still well above the predictions for the Tories.
> Off topic: Day 4 of 'Meat free May'. I'm having a mushroomy pasta thing from M&S. Being trolled by Wor Lass who had a pork pie.
A May free May would be nicer.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > "Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections."
> > >
> > > I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
> > >
> > > May has been very surprising, but I think the Locals being even worse than the worst predictions adds to the cumulative weight of reasons that she will be made to go even if no deal is agreed - a reasonable night and even the hammering they will get in the Euros might have been survivable, but even though those seeking to replace her appear to have no plan - or unicorn plans - she doesn't seem to be adding any value where she is.
> >
> > Its curious that a mid term government NOT being behind the Opposition at the local elections is now described as 'even worse than the worst predictions'.
> >
> > Yet another thing in which terminology has moved to the extremes.
>
> All things are relative. Yes in historical terms it could have been worse, in not having a lead or being equal in share at least, but 1300 was still well above the predictions for the Tories.
I think the predictions would have suggested a Conservative NEV lead.
Does anyone really expect a mid term government to achieve that ?
Or to put in another way the predicted losses would have returned the Conservatives to a position similar to that of the 2007 local elections ie when they had a 13% NEV lead.
> So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
So what should the government do differently ?
> So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
UKIP won in 2014 with 27% of the vote. This time there are two more parties and my guess is the the "winner" could do it on 25%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Remember that UKIP was markedly overstated in the EU2014 polling and I'd suggest you take any finding of 27%+ with a pinch of salt
> > @DoubleD said:
> > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
>
> So what should the government do differently ?
Put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
> It is extraordinary to reflect this is 21 years since Higgins' first final (which he won). I think that's the longest gap between first and last finals and he doesn't seem finished yet.
Reckon Joe and Fred Davis would be contenders.
> Well, nobody has got rich betting on TM's departure.
My biggest losing bet of 2017 was on TMay going before the end of the year.
Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
If it were semi-finals it would be different. It would again be Fred - first in 1937, last in 1980, which is a record I do not expect anyone to ever best!
Edit - apologies, you're right, he appeared in one final before the war. That said of course that includes a number of years where the tournament wasn't held.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/may/04/police-commissioners-criticise-rape-victim-data-request-form?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Interesting extra information on the forms we were discussing a few days ago.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > Well, nobody has got rich betting on TM's departure.
>
> My biggest losing bet of 2017 was on TMay going before the end of the year.
I think (or rather i know to my cost) you also bet on Brown to go in 2008 or 2009. Moral: things change, but they stay the same before they change for longer than you think.
Her resilience would be praiseworthy if it wasn't for the disastrous consequences.
> Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
>
> Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
UKIP not doing that well in the locals in the few areas that they did stand makes me wonder. The Lib Dems and Greens may be understated in polls as well.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > Well, nobody has got rich betting on TM's departure.
> >
> > My biggest losing bet of 2017 was on TMay going before the end of the year.
>
> I think (or rather i know to my cost) you also bet on Brown to go in 2008 or 2009. Moral: things change, but they stay the same before they change for longer than you think.
Agreed. It's like spotting the peak of a bull market. They never last forever, so betting your house on the markets rising will lose your shirt eventually. But trying to work out when the inevitable change will come is extremely difficult, and most people expect it to come much more often than it does.
> "Of course it is just possible that a deal will be agreed with Corbyn that allows this to happen fast and that could still prevent the May 23rd Euro elections."
>
> I'm not sure that is true even if a deal is agreed!
The WDA has to be approved by the European Parliament. The next scheduled plenary session is of the new Parliament on July 2nd. I’m not sure if the EP actually gets dissolved like a Westminster-model Parliament or notionally the outgoing members retain their office until the newly elected members’ terms begin like the US model.
If it’s the latter, then theoretically the outgoing EP could be recalled to approve the WDA. If not, then even if the WDA were to pass Commons next week, then I’m sure the EU would still demand the UK take part in the elections in case something were to happen to prevent the WDA being actually implemented.
> Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
>
> Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> >
> > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
>
> UKIP not doing that well in the locals in the few areas that they did stand makes me wonder. The Lib Dems and Greens may be understated in polls as well.
All true. Probably. Yet Labour’s clear underperformance makes a BP win more likely, lowering the bar. The bar is too high for the LibDems given all the remainer competition they face, and I don’t think anyone is backing the Tories to come first!
> > @Artist said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > >
> > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> >
> > UKIP not doing that well in the locals in the few areas that they did stand makes me wonder. The Lib Dems and Greens may be understated in polls as well.
>
> All true. Probably. Yet Labour’s clear underperformance makes a BP win more likely, lowering the bar. The bar is too high for the LibDems given all the remainer competition they face, and I don’t think anyone is backing the Tories to come first!
May would deserve to be PM until 2022 if she pulled that off!
> > @Quincel said:
> > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> >
> > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
>
> UKIP not doing that well in the locals in the few areas that they did stand makes me wonder. The Lib Dems and Greens may be understated in polls as well.
UKIP not doing that well makes me think it was in part a Remain backlash, but the astonishing Indy results (who were a random mix of people with all Brexit views or none) makes me think it was an anti-establishment one first and foremost.
I may be wrong, we only have to wait until the Euros for more data. I suspect the odds are fairly good on them so am not betting, and I've already got all I'm willing to on bets that they will happen.
> > @Quincel said:
> > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> >
> > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
>
> Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
Leavers are not the establishment.
If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > @DoubleD said:
>
> > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
>
>
>
> UKIP won in 2014 with 27% of the vote. This time there are two more parties and my guess is the the "winner" could do it on 25%.
>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> Remember that UKIP was markedly overstated in the EU2014 polling and I'd suggest you take any finding of 27%+ with a pinch of salt
>
> Except in Yougov, the pollster we get most often now. They were spot on with UKIP, in fact the significant difference with the result is they overestimated Labour.
Careful. The Brexit Party will not have many postal voters compared main parties. This will tell.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Quincel said:
> > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > >
> > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> >
> > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
>
> Leavers are not the establishment.
>
> If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @DoubleD said:
> >
> > > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
> >
> >
> >
> > UKIP won in 2014 with 27% of the vote. This time there are two more parties and my guess is the the "winner" could do it on 25%.
> >
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Remember that UKIP was markedly overstated in the EU2014 polling and I'd suggest you take any finding of 27%+ with a pinch of salt
> >
> > Except in Yougov, the pollster we get most often now. They were spot on with UKIP, in fact the significant difference with the result is they overestimated Labour.
>
> Careful. The Brexit Party will not have many postal voters compared main parties. This will tell.
Why not? The Brexit Party were launched well before before postal votes go out on May 8th and postal voters tend to be pensioners who are the Brexit Party's strongest demographic
To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
>
> I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
The only way to stop the rot is to agree to a referendum...
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > > @DoubleD said:
> >
> > > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
> >
> >
> >
> > UKIP won in 2014 with 27% of the vote. This time there are two more parties and my guess is the the "winner" could do it on 25%.
> >
> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> >
> > Remember that UKIP was markedly overstated in the EU2014 polling and I'd suggest you take any finding of 27%+ with a pinch of salt
> >
> > Except in Yougov, the pollster we get most often now. They were spot on with UKIP, in fact the significant difference with the result is they overestimated Labour.
>
> Careful. The Brexit Party will not have many postal voters compared main parties. This will tell.
Surely many Tory voters with postal votes are likely to switch to the Brexit Party for the EU elections!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > >
> > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > >
> > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> >
> > Leavers are not the establishment.
> >
> > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
>
> If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
Diehard Remainers like you may be unimpressed, you are not the Brexit Party's demographic.
Furious Leave voters angry we are still in the EU 3 years after they voted to Leave are and they like Farage and Widdecombe's language of betrayal
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @DoubleD said:
> > > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
> >
> > So what should the government do differently ?
>
> Put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
I seem to recall that happening to the Tories in Canada. Reduced to 1 seat. Of course in the Tories case that 1 would be Mrs May who would appear of the doorstep of No 10 to assure us that nothing had changed.
> A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
>
> To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
>
> I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
As I posted earlier put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll into Electoral Calculus and you get a Brexit Party landslide on 394 seats to just 153 for Labour, 22 for the LDs and 1 for the Tories.
That really would be end times for the main parties if we have not left the EU by the next general election
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> >
> > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> >
> > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
>
> As I posted earlier put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll into Electoral Calculus and you get a Brexit Party landslide on 394 seats to just 153 for Labour, 22 for the LDs and 1 for the Tories.
>
> That really would be end times for the main parties if we have not left the EU by the next general election
>
> https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
>
> https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You could have done exactly the same with the ComRes poll a few weeks before EU2014 which had Farage's party on 38%. They got 27%
> How lucky are Liverpool? I reckon their name is on the trophy.
Tell that to the Man City goal against Burnley that crossed the line by about 3cm.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @DoubleD said:
> > > > So, onto the Euros. When a party is in decline, they can never see it. Mrs May and her acolytes are an absolute disaster, and can't see their failings. (I know some of them personally and they are the worst people on the planet for stupidity and not listening). The Euros will be a win for a Brexit party, but the size of the win is the key. UKIP got 26.6% of the vote, ?I believe. Brexit need to do better than that. I reckon more than 30%. They won't get more than 40%. In a GE, unless Brexit party hit 20%, they won't get many seats. So, 30% and 20% is a minimum, or Mrs May survives, as do the top 2 parties.
> > >
> > > So what should the government do differently ?
> >
> > Put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll of Brexit Party 30%, Labour 21%, Tories 13% and LDs 10% into Electoral Calculus and you get Brexit Party 394 seats, Labour 153, LDs 22 and Tories 1.
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> >
> > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
>
> I seem to recall that happening to the Tories in Canada. Reduced to 1 seat. Of course in the Tories case that 1 would be Mrs May who would appear of the doorstep of No 10 to assure us that nothing had changed.
I agree, I fear there is a real prospect May ends up the Tories Kim Campbell if she fails to deliver Brexit and we are still in the EU by the next general election.
In Canada in 1993 the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to just 2 seats and overtaken by the populist conservative Reform Party
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > >
> > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > >
> > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> >
> > Leavers are not the establishment.
> >
> > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
>
> If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> The possibility BP are being overrated is another reason for Labour to hold fire on any agreement - if they come top they have even more power.
If the BP come top though Labour risk losing scores of seats in their heartlands that voted Leave to the BP by keeping us in the EU
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> > >
> > > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> > >
> > > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
> >
> > As I posted earlier put the latest Yougov Euro elections poll into Electoral Calculus and you get a Brexit Party landslide on 394 seats to just 153 for Labour, 22 for the LDs and 1 for the Tories.
> >
> > That really would be end times for the main parties if we have not left the EU by the next general election
> >
> > https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=13&LAB=21&LIB=10+&UKIP=4&Green=9&ChUK=9&Brexit=30&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
> >
> > https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
>
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> You could have done exactly the same with the ComRes poll a few weeks before EU2014 which had Farage's party on 38%. They got 27%
Even 27% would have made UKIP comfortably the largest party as UKIP still came first.
In 2015 Cameron lessened the UKIP threat by promising an EU referendum, if the result of that vote is not respected and implemented Farage will continue to surge
As seems to happen with zombies (IANAE) there has been serious collateral damage, lurches towards Armageddon, and large scoops of misery on the way. All that has been missing is the brains. But I suppose you can't have everything.
The Tories used to be famous for their survival traits. No longer.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > >
> > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > >
> > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > >
> > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > >
> > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> >
> > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
>
> And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > @kle4 said:
> > The possibility BP are being overrated is another reason for Labour to hold fire on any agreement - if they come top they have even more power.
>
> If the BP come top though Labour risk losing scores of seats in their heartlands that voted Leave to the BP by keeping us in the EU
With FPTP the calculation that has to be made is, will voters return to Labour to stop the Tories from winning and will voters return to the Tories to stop Labour winning? As long as Corbyn et al think more voters will come back to them than will return to the Tories, then he will keep stringing this out.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > >
> > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > >
> > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > >
> > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > >
> > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> >
> > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
>
> And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
Whichever way they voted, they certainly gave Labour a kicking in the North East.
> A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
>
> To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
>
> I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > The possibility BP are being overrated is another reason for Labour to hold fire on any agreement - if they come top they have even more power.
> >
> > If the BP come top though Labour risk losing scores of seats in their heartlands that voted Leave to the BP by keeping us in the EU
>
> With FPTP the calculation that has to be made is, will voters return to Labour to stop the Tories from winning and will voters return to the Tories to stop Labour winning? As long as Corbyn et al think more voters will come back to them than will return to the Tories, then he will keep stringing this out.
That may be true as long as the BP are not seen as in contention, if the BP win the European elections, the Peterborough by election from Labour and start to lead a few polls that calculation changes the longer we stay in the EU
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> >
> > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> >
> > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
>
> I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
>
>
Since it is highly likely that >50% won't bother to vote in the Euros then that statement is very true.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> >
> > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
>
> The only way to stop the rot is to agree to a referendum...
That will certainly not stop the parties haemorrhaging votes. Neither side would accept whatever the result was if it went against them.
If you look back at Yougov's 2014 polling it was consistently showing over 20% of 60+ going to Labour. Now only 8% of 65+ is going to Labour. (annoyingly they've changed the interval but it's not going to be much higher since the same is happening in the interval below)
UKIP were getting around 35% of 60+ in 2014. Now TBP is getting 48% of 65+
I don't know for sure, but might have something to do with Remainiacs wishing they were dead....
Labour's VI is skewed much younger than it used to be. I hope they show up.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> > >
> > > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> > >
> > > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
> >
> > I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
> >
> >
>
> Since it is highly likely that >50% won't bother to vote in the Euros then that statement is very true.
Turnout for the Euros is normally lower than for the Local Elections.I would be surprised if it reaches 40% this year.
If John Smith was leader of Labour, Williamson would be calling him all sorts of neoliberal names surely??? :
https://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1124639988229054464
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> > >
> > > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> > >
> > > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
> >
> > I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
> >
> >
>
> Since it is highly likely that >50% won't bother to vote in the Euros then that statement is very true.
How was your mushroom thingy? Fillet steak for me tonight from Lane End Farm Shop in Tong. You might know it?
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> >
> > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> >
> > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
>
> I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
>
>
If Mrs May's deal were instituted, we'd be out of the EU, and 95% of Leavers would be content (as it turns out that . A further 75% of Remainers would probably be OK with it too, as it turned out the sky didn't fall in.
Sadly, events have conspired to make the tail options - crash out and Remain - all too likely.
And if either of these happen, then the country will be unhappy indeed.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > >
> > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > >
> > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > >
> > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > >
> > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> >
> > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
>
> UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
>
> Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
>
> Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1124738978794500097
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @kle4 said:
> > > > The possibility BP are being overrated is another reason for Labour to hold fire on any agreement - if they come top they have even more power.
> > >
> > > If the BP come top though Labour risk losing scores of seats in their heartlands that voted Leave to the BP by keeping us in the EU
> >
> > With FPTP the calculation that has to be made is, will voters return to Labour to stop the Tories from winning and will voters return to the Tories to stop Labour winning? As long as Corbyn et al think more voters will come back to them than will return to the Tories, then he will keep stringing this out.
>
> That may be true as long as the BP are not seen as in contention, if the BP win the European elections, the Peterborough by election from Labour and start to lead a few polls that calculation changes the longer we stay in the EU
Well "if" is pretty important here. UKIP got 27% in 2014. They are standing again, so TBP has to deal with the technical disposal of UKIP. Meanwhile the demographics of Leave are not really in their favour. Sure they are strident, but a few hundred split ballot papers is not storming the Winter Palace. I would say right now any backlash is coming against Leave from Remain.
So using your kind of fairy dust I could construct a plausible scenario where TBP struggles to break 20% in actual votes and is seen as a busted flush in the aftermath... Meanwhile the Lib Dems capitalise on their momentum and gain a whole load of seats and are seen as the big winners again. Frankly it's pretty finely balanced for Farage right now... And if it is the case that the country has changed its mind then the Tories and Labour are on pretty thin ice. So, no one knows, but the "get on with it" narrative could be a real booby trap especially if it is done without a second vote.
The government of this country is totally paralysed by Brexit; what a pointless fuck-up the whole project has been.
> Nadine Dorries calls for May to go.
>
> https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1124738978794500097
I'm intrigued to understand how Mrs May going changes the parliamentary arithmetic.
But I guess, a true leaver would just deliberately allow the clock to run down, choosing No Deal Brexit via deliberate inaction.
Which would be ballsy.
> FPT > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @rural_voter said:
>
> > > > @kinabalu said:
>
> > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
>
> > >
>
> > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
>
> >
>
> > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
>
>
>
> Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
>
> Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
Mike is psychologically incapable of accepting that his side lost fair and square. He must explain it by underhand or illegal means. It is a deep flaw in his character shared by a number of Remainers on here which makes them incapable of compromise. They are just as fanatical in their own way as the ERG or Farage.
BBC Radio 5 live reporter at St James' Park
It looks like there are some Liverpool fans in the posh seats just behind the press box. It appears they celebrated when Mo Salah scored Liverpool’s second and the home fans sat nearby are clearly not impressed.
Not @TheScreamingEagles I hope!
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > A deal between May and Corbyn is possible. But at what cost. May would have to agree a Customs Union, which surely would lead to a mass protest of her MPs. Corbyn would have to rubber stamp an almost unaltered May Brexit, which surely would lead to a mass protest of his MPs.
> > >
> > > To me this suggests the impasse will continue and nothing will be agreed - with Tory and Labour MPs seen as the blockage. Which inevitably means a whupping of both parties in the Euro elections.
> > >
> > > I still cannot see any Brexit deal that does not directly lead to s significant fissure in both parties. Yet without a deal neither party will be able to do anything at The ballot box other than haemmorage votes. The end times are here...
> >
> > I suspect that >50% of the electorate are neither diehard Remainers or diehard Leavers and would just be grateful that the issue was resolved and out of their news space.
> >
> >
>
> If Mrs May's deal were instituted, we'd be out of the EU, and 95% of Leavers would be content (as it turns out that . A further 75% of Remainers would probably be OK with it too, as it turned out the sky didn't fall in.
>
> Sadly, events have conspired to make the tail options - crash out and Remain - all too likely.
>
> And if either of these happen, then the country will be unhappy indeed.
Yep. Spot on on all counts. Though I am more hopeful than you are of a deal very similar to May's current offering (with a bit of PD tinkering) going through.
We will be hearing this bullshit all through until December when another challenge can finally take place. I expect her to resign in November barring some left-field event.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > FPT > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > > > @rural_voter said:
> >
> > > > > @kinabalu said:
> >
> > > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
> >
> >
> >
> > Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
> >
> > Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
>
> Mike is psychologically incapable of accepting that his side lost fair and square. He must explain it by underhand or illegal means. It is a deep flaw in his character shared by a number of Remainers on here which makes them incapable of compromise. They are just as fanatical in their own way as the ERG or Farage.
You might want to read the relavent pages of the Mueller report and a couple of recent legal judgements. There is a considerable body of evidence that the Kremlin mounted a major operation. That's not a character flaw, it's logic and evidence.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > >
> > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > >
> > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > >
> > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > >
> > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> >
> > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> >
> > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> >
> > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
>
> Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
The fact that the Brexit Party are polling so strongly puts the lie to the idea that UKIP's flaws are not widely known.
Plus of course, according to Hope Not Hate they stood less than a quarter of the candidates they had in 2014. You can't vote for a party if they are not standing candidates in your constituency.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124763020532572161
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > FPT > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > >
> > > > > @rural_voter said:
> > >
> > > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > >
> > > > > > I'll be quite surprised if Labour do a deal with May. I would have thought that they would prefer the next GE to take place against the backdrop of the Tories having failed to deliver a Brexit of any description.
> > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > > > > But 48% of voters maybe now 55% will be crying tears of joy if 'circumstances' lead to Brexit being cancelled.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > That makes the extremely dubious assumption that all those who voted Remain would be happy with the consequences of overturning a democratic vote. A very dangerous assumption I would suggest.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Only a democratic vote if the rules were obeyed. They weren't and, of course, Moscow was playing a big role.
> > >
> > > Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I was voting in the polling booth
> >
> > Mike is psychologically incapable of accepting that his side lost fair and square. He must explain it by underhand or illegal means. It is a deep flaw in his character shared by a number of Remainers on here which makes them incapable of compromise. They are just as fanatical in their own way as the ERG or Farage.
>
> You might want to read the relavent pages of the Mueller report and a couple of recent legal judgements. There is a considerable body of evidence that the Kremlin mounted a major operation. That's not a character flaw, it's logic and evidence.
Its garbage touted by failures. I am sure you will be coming up with similar excuses when TBP win the Euros as well.
Should be entertaining.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > >
> > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > >
> > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > >
> > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > >
> > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > >
> > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> >
> > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
>
> The fact that the Brexit Party are polling so strongly puts the lie to the idea that UKIP's flaws are not widely known.
>
> Plus of course, according to Hope Not Hate they stood less than a quarter of the candidates they had in 2014. You can't vote for a party if they are not standing candidates in your constituency.
>
Another who can’t read a simple question.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
>
> Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
I would have voted Lib Dem if I thought it was going to be close in my ward to get rid of the Tory. But I was confident the Lib Dem would win anyway so gave my vote to Ukip.
- "Nothing has changed! I'm alright!"
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > > > > > @Quincel said:
> > > > > > > > > Another thought: What if TBP doesn't win the Euros? Imagine if OGH is right that they are being overpolled, and they come second. It will still be pretty impressive, but the expectations game would hurt them.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Given the strength of the anti-establishment backlash last week however, I'm not convinced.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Leavers are the establishment now, what we saw on Thursday was a Remain backlash. In the Euros Scotland, Wales, London will all be voting too.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Leavers are not the establishment.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If they were we would have left the EU at the end of March. The Brexit Party were not standing on Thursday, they will be in the European elections
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If Farage and Widdicombe in Blackpool are the future for TBP then a large number of people will be pretty unimpressed. Seems to me that the bandwagon might not roll as fast as the polls suggest.
> > > > >
> > > > > And there is the question of why all these apparently angry leavers didn’t vote for the UKIP candidates where they were on offer?
> > > >
> > > > UKIP are now Tommy Robinson light and only stood in less than 20% of seats.
> > > >
> > > > Most Brexiteers voted Independent, stayed at home or spoiled their ballot papers.
> > > >
> > > > Plus even some Leavers who voted LD to mend their potholes will vote Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections
> > >
> > > Read the question again. Then wonder why, if these leavers are so angry, they didn’t take the obvious anti-EU option in their ward? I don’t believe UKIP’s travails are known by everybody not following politics, and I am not convinced that if the leavers were as angry and numerous as some are saying, that they would have cared. A protest is a protest. Yet the UKIP vote was up only marginally on last year and well down on 2015.
> >
> > The fact that the Brexit Party are polling so strongly puts the lie to the idea that UKIP's flaws are not widely known.
> >
> > Plus of course, according to Hope Not Hate they stood less than a quarter of the candidates they had in 2014. You can't vote for a party if they are not standing candidates in your constituency.
> >
>
> Another who can’t read a simple question.
Tell me again how you vote for a party that is not standing candidates?
> Nadine Dorries calls for May to go.
> https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1124738978794500097
>
>
>
> That's the first really convincing argument I've seen in months for her staying on.
Brexit is the problem. The PM is poor but so are the likely replacements. Blaming the person is simply displacement activity.