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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs the main gainers but there are a lot more results to come

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  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,000
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @Roger said:
    > > > > > @El_Capitano said:
    > > > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
    > > > >
    > > > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
    > > >
    > > > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
    > >
    > > Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
    > Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
    >

    Losing by that sort of margin is very tough. All sorts of 'what ifs' in your agent's mind, if not yours.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    HYUFD said:

    Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that

    Sorry to hear that well done you for standing (up) in the face of it all.

    At least the twats who scrawled "Brexit" on the ballot paper are at risk of being thought ardent Remainers.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited May 2019
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > The LD bounce looks like very bad timing for Change UK, but equally CHUK polling even 5% could cost the LDs a fair proportion of potential seats in any GE.
    >
    > For Labour, I am unsure how vulnerable Corbyn is, but it is hard to see him becoming more vulnerable than he is now in the next couple of years, out of line with his party on Brexit and performing badly electorally. Time for a challenge there.
    >
    > For the Tories, they remain stuck, a change of leader does not change the parliamentary arithmetic and going into a GE to change it would be incredibly risky. The alternative of paralysis just leaks votes to all sides, not sure what they can do, but time may create some opportunities later on.

    A change of Tory leader might not change the parliamentary arithmetic but it does usually come with a honeymoon period which gives them a chance to ditch May’s toxic agenda and elected a leader who is actually has some charisma and non Brexit policies, neither of which May has. Whether they take that chance is something we’ll only find out if they get off their backsides and ditch her. Not sure the local election results are bad enough for that.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    edited May 2019
    Roger said:

    You going through a midlife crisis or something?

    Projection, much? Not me who started lusting after politicians.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    > @Cicero said:

    > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?



    Vale of the White Hearse?

    You'd make a joke at your own funeral.
    People used to laugh when he said he wanted to be a comedian. They aren’t laughing now.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,976
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @Roger said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > @Roger said:
    > > > > > @El_Capitano said:
    > > > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
    > > > > >
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
    > > > >
    > > > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
    > > >
    > > > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
    > >
    > > Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
    > Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
    >

    Bad luck. You should be proud of your efforts even if you are gutted right now.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1124218282750332928

    It would be quite astounding if a tory website got any other result.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/LeighBoobyer/status/1124161131873017856

    Depends WHERE he wrote it, I guess.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,225
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > @El_Capitano said:
    > > It's the creeping Gloucesterization of Oxfordshire! Today, Abingdon - tomorrow the Wold!
    > >
    > > Bring it on!
    > >
    > > But then we are about to get some new town signs that proudly proclaim us as part of the Cotswolds while omitting the Oxfordshire bit. ;)
    >
    > Won't stop the border raids on Burford, mate. Lock up yer wimmin! :)

    Abingdon was the country town of Berkshire and most of the Vale is Old berks too. So Maybe it's south of the Thames you should worry about
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    > @TOPPING said:
    > Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
    >
    > Sorry to hear that well done you for standing (up) in the face of it all.
    >
    > At least the twats who scrawled "Brexit" on the ballot paper are at risk of being thought ardent Remainers.

    Thanks, yes the Brexit spoilers were not very subtle and could be interpreted differently depending on the interpreter
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1124225150075977728

    LOL. Talk about clutching at straws.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1124218282750332928
    >
    > It would be quite astounding if a tory website got any other result.

    Since when has PoliticsHome been a Tory website? I think you are confusing it with ConservativeHome.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,225
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.

    Yes this is a big gap over the VI polls: like double
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    New thread
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687
    eristdoof said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    >





    It would be quite astounding if a tory website got any other result.
    The YouGov survey
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    In news elsewhere the French Interior minister has been accused of making up a riot outside a hospital which led to arrests on May Day. He says demonstrators were violent but all the video footage from the press shows nothing happened.

    Could be a resignation in the offing and Macron loses a key ally.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/pitie-salpetriere-la-majorite-vole-au-secours-de-christophe-castaner-20190503
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @malcolmg said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    >
    > > > @mr-claypole said:
    >
    > > > Like every other event in our broken reality everyone- everyone -is going to claim these results prove them right. The only poll that actually resolves this is another referendum.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > The voters are in ornery mood. If you asked them today in a Referendum, should we:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > A Leave the European Union
    >
    > >
    >
    > > B Remain in the European Union
    >
    > >
    >
    > > C Burn down Westminster before we do anything else
    >
    > >
    >
    > > which outcome do you think would win?
    >
    >
    >
    > B
    >
    > I would go with C

    Not surprised. Nationalists and their close cousins the fascists are very keen on burning things, books, holiday homes, parliaments.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687
    edited May 2019
    John Curtice, who I’m not sure has yet slept, has told Today that the Lib Dem gains do not seem to be motivated by Brexit. He says evidence of the party performing better in remain than leave areas is “lacking”.
    [LabourList]

    I think the evidence is mixed.

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170369508704257
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    kle4 said:


    > @TheJezziah said:

    > > @bigjohnowls said:

    >

    > > > @RochdalePioneers said:

    >

    > > > Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Tom Watson lost us 1000 seats Corbyn won 800 back!!

    >

    > >

    >

    > > That's as stupid as you sound Comrade.

    >

    > >

    >

    > > Labour lost for being too remain though.

    >

    >

    >

    > Is that the line from the hive mind?

    >

    > I think the hive are mainly concentrating their fire on Corbyn...



    By sitting on the fence he's managed to get the worst of both worlds, alienating both his Leave and Remain constituencies.

    Going more remainy would leave an opening for the Tories, going more leavey difficult to do with the PLP and members. If you can read something from the local elections* it is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain.

    *Which maybe you can't nationally.
    "t is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain."

    You keep on parroting that line, but I've seen f-all evidence pre-election that Labour have been 'pushing' towards Remain.
    Every time they refuse to vote fir Brexit they are, every time masses of their MPs tell everyone they want to remain they are. Many are clear any deal even a Labour one must go to referendum which they want to mean remain.

    Yes the leadership are not there. But the idea Labour mps would permit any Brexit is just as much a unicorn as many Tories. They say they might leave if s but if x won’t happen we can discount what they say.

    *Some* Labour MPs.

    They're like the Conservatives - hopelessly split, but with the advantage that they don't politically have to sort the mess out.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > John Curtice, who I’m not sure has yet slept, has told Today that the Lib Dem gains do not seem to be motivated by Brexit. He says evidence of the party performing better in remain than leave areas is “lacking”.
    > [LabourList]
    >
    > I think the evidence is mixed.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170369508704257

    I guess if you are a Lib Dem inclined remain voter you are probably more regularly reminded about the madness known as Brexit in Leave dominated areas, and therefore have a higher inclination to go to the polling booth.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,098
    > @Alanbrooke said:
    >
    > In news elsewhere the French Interior minister has been accused of making up a riot outside a hospital which led to arrests on May Day. He says demonstrators were violent but all the video footage from the press shows nothing happened.
    >
    > Could be a resignation in the offing and Macron loses a key ally.
    >
    > http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/pitie-salpetriere-la-majorite-vole-au-secours-de-christophe-castaner-20190503

    You would think France has had enough actual riots without needing pretendy riots.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    > @OldKingCole said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @Roger said:
    > > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > > > @Roger said:
    > > > > > > @El_Capitano said:
    > > > > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
    > > > >
    > > > > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
    > > >
    > > > Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
    > > Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
    > >
    >
    > Losing by that sort of margin is very tough. All sorts of 'what ifs' in your agent's mind, if not yours.

    The main thing was we won 1 district seat we thought we could have lost, losing a town seat by 2 votes is a little disappointing for me personally but not the end of the world
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,663
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > John Curtice, who I’m not sure has yet slept, has told Today that the Lib Dem gains do not seem to be motivated by Brexit. He says evidence of the party performing better in remain than leave areas is “lacking”.
    > [LabourList]
    >
    > I think the evidence is mixed.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170369508704257

    Even in strongly Leave areas, there is a substantial minority of Remainers, who are politically homeless if both the main parties are pro Brexit. I am not too surprised at LD and Green gains in parts of Sunderland.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002

    Scott_P said:
    A good example of the phenomena where people draw the conclusions most convenient for them.
    The Local Government association Chief Exec pointed out that many councillors campaigned on anything BUT Brexit - and we've seen losses on both sides (Sunderland, Labour, Cotswolds, Con) where local council issues may have been at least, if not more, important.
    For everyone on this site and on Twitter everything about these elections is all about Brexit.

    In the real world? Not so much.
    That's even worse for the tories if that's the case.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687
    edited May 2019
    Foxy said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    > John Curtice, who I’m not sure has yet slept, has told Today that the Lib Dem gains do not seem to be motivated by Brexit. He says evidence of the party performing better in remain than leave areas is “lacking”.

    > [LabourList]

    >

    > I think the evidence is mixed.

    >

    >




    I am not too surprised at LD and Green gains in parts of Sunderland.
    And it could also be down to local issues too. For example, the Wearside Liberal Democrats Facebook Page....
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @Dura_Ace said:
    > https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1124170279545077761
    >
    >
    >
    > A good example of the phenomena where people draw the conclusions most convenient for them.
    >
    > The Local Government association Chief Exec pointed out that many councillors campaigned on anything BUT Brexit - and we've seen losses on both sides (Sunderland, Labour, Cotswolds, Con) where local council issues may have been at least, if not more, important.
    >
    > For everyone on this site and on Twitter everything about these elections is all about Brexit.
    >
    > In the real world? Not so much.
    >
    > That's even worse for the tories if that's the case.

    Brexit fanatics clearly getting worried.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    John Curtice, who I’m not sure has yet slept, has told Today that the Lib Dem gains do not seem to be motivated by Brexit. He says evidence of the party performing better in remain than leave areas is “lacking”.
    [LabourList]

    I think the evidence is mixed.

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170369508704257

    Doing linear regression on data that itself has been processed is a great way of introducing a load of spurious variance into the data.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > HYUFD: do you mind me asking on which town council you were seeking election?
    >
    > Epping

    Thanks. Funnily enough I visited Epping tube station for the first time about 3 weeks ago when I was trying to do the tube challenge of visiting every station in the fastest possible time.
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1124217410612076544

    Yes the gloss has come off Labour. The free pass they got at the last election is unlikely to happen again and they will have to do something to attract Greens and Libdems
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687
    09.24 Labour chair Ian Lavery, appearing on BBC News, says the “clear message is that the two parties need to get on and get Brexit sorted.” Voters have “voted with their feet, they’ve voted for change”. He says he shares voters’ frustration because both Labour and the Tories “agreed we would be leaving the EU, we would have Brexit…and that hasn’t happened.” Voters are “frustrated, they’re angry, and we’ll take that on board.”

    LabourList
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1124225150075977728
    >
    > LOL. Talk about clutching at straws.

    I think there will continue to be a lot of straw clutching on both sides. Brexit continues to be the most divisive political issue in British history, certainly since the civil war. Thanks David Cameron!
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,442

    > @IanB2 said:

    > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control



    I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.

    To provide a further anecdote, in the absence of evidence, I grew up there and still have several old school friends in the city, mostly quite annoyed about Brexit - most voted Con in 2015 GE, mixed but largely Lab in 2017 (on Brexit, thinking they'd come round to anti-Brexit, inexplicably, but also for bits of Labour's platform, rail nationalisation etc) and yesterday almost all LD, again on Brexit having finally woken up to Labour's position. None mentioned housing, but they're all mid-late 30s and homeowners (and mostly metropolitan liberal elite, I guess ;-) so maybe not a big thing for them. Those I've been in contact with are quite shocked, but delighted by yesterday's council result.

    Chelmsford has been LD before, but not since late-90s and LD have been nowhere in recent GEs in the constituency.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,313
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @Dura_Ace said:
    > > https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1124170279545077761
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > A good example of the phenomena where people draw the conclusions most convenient for them.
    > >
    > > The Local Government association Chief Exec pointed out that many councillors campaigned on anything BUT Brexit - and we've seen losses on both sides (Sunderland, Labour, Cotswolds, Con) where local council issues may have been at least, if not more, important.
    > >
    > > For everyone on this site and on Twitter everything about these elections is all about Brexit.
    > >
    > > In the real world? Not so much.
    > >
    > > That's even worse for the tories if that's the case.
    >
    > Brexit fanatics clearly getting worried.

    They have good cause to. The WDA needs passing in the next few weeks or brexit is not going to happen
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687


    Brexit fanatics clearly getting worried.

    I'm not sure I'd call John Curtice a 'Brexit fanatic'
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    DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    Anti-Brexiteers thinking that they have won. No, Brexiteers have stayed at home because their parties have followed the anti-bexiteer position. Roll on Euros for a right shellacking.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,602
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1124225150075977728
    >
    > LOL. Talk about clutching at straws.
    >

    Indeed. The only credible and unequivocal pro-Brexit party didn't stand in a single seat.

    I wonder if he dares to repeat that methodology in 3 weeks time.

    I am looking forward to him not being elected as an MEP.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,002


    They have good cause to. The WDA needs passing in the next few weeks or brexit is not going to happen

    The WDA is a load of wank that is worse than both remain and no deal for different reasons. The only possible motivation to vote for it is slavish loyalty that puts the interests of the tory party ahead of those of the country.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,687
    NEW THREAD
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,313
    edited May 2019
    > @DoubleD said:
    > Anti-Brexiteers thinking that they have won. No, Brexiteers have stayed at home because their parties have followed the anti-bexiteer position. Roll on Euros for a right shellacking.

    I have little doubt that this has been a poor night for brexiteers and while the Brexit party will do well in the EU elections I expect the total leave vote will be considerably less than the vote for remain parties
  • Options
    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:

    UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    LD (Remain) +109%
    Green (Remain) +500%

    Message seems very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    > @Streeter said:
    > Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
    >
    > UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    > Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    > Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    > LD (Remain) +109%
    > Green (Remain) +500%
    >
    > Message seems very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.

    And save the planet.
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    DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Streeter said:
    > > Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
    > >
    > > UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    > > Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    > > Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    > > LD (Remain) +109%
    > > Green (Remain) +500%
    > >
    > > Message seems very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
    >
    > And save the planet.

    Er, no. Leavers stayed at home.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,818

    I think a PBer has just won a seat for the Lib Dems but will leave it to them to confirm or otherwise.

    Scale of the emerging LD win on Vale of the White Horse is massive. https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17615225.local-elections-2019-oxfordshire-results-as-they-come-in/

    Confirm :)
    That went better than anticipated
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    He’s only 2 years behind the rest of us!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    > @AmpfieldAndy said:

    > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.



    I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.

    You are IoS and I claim my £5
This discussion has been closed.