Though the district that's just turned Lib Dem is Gloucestershire Cotswolds, while Dave lives in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds (as do I - same county division, as it happens) which will stay blue, at least this time.
We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot".
Even though it’s losing to the LDs it’s results like this which will ruin May even more fir the ERG crowd, and crowd out stories on labour doing poorly. It’s more dramatic.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader > > I'd say that's spot on. If Labour had a leader who was not absolutely detested by the general public, they would be on course for a landslide.
> @IanB2 said: > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
Good description. There are three Tory target seats in that area: Stoke Central, Stoke North, and Newcastle-under-Lyme. Also Labour are defending a 48 vote majority in neighbouring Crewe & Nantwich.
In most SW parliamentary seats Labour are now in second place and the LDs not been second since 2010. They really need a good council recovery to justify x cannot win here bar charts.
> @El_Capitano said: > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > They loved him in the Cotswolds. > > Though the district that's just turned Lib Dem is Gloucestershire Cotswolds, while Dave lives in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds (as do I - same county division, as it happens) which will stay blue, at least this time. > > We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot".
I'd be somewhat surprised if West Oxfordshire stays Blue. South Oxfordshire has gone LD-Green majority, Vale of WH has gone LD overall, trend is not good for them to retain control.
> > > Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader
>
> >
>
> > Tom Watson lost us 1000 seats Corbyn won 800 back!!
>
> >
>
> > That's as stupid as you sound Comrade.
>
> >
>
> > Labour lost for being too remain though.
>
>
>
> Is that the line from the hive mind?
>
> I think the hive are mainly concentrating their fire on Corbyn...
By sitting on the fence he's managed to get the worst of both worlds, alienating both his Leave and Remain constituencies.
Going more remainy would leave an opening for the Tories, going more leavey difficult to do with the PLP and members. If you can read something from the local elections* it is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain.
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
I'm not surprised the Greens are doing well. Apart from Green issues leading the news for several weeks Caroline Lucas is by a distance the UK's most attractive and able politician.
> > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
>
> I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
Especially when governments always see local losses, preventing them entirely by going full nimby wouldn’t work.
> > > Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader
>
> >
>
> > Tom Watson lost us 1000 seats Corbyn won 800 back!!
>
> >
>
> > That's as stupid as you sound Comrade.
>
> >
>
> > Labour lost for being too remain though.
>
>
>
> Is that the line from the hive mind?
>
> I think the hive are mainly concentrating their fire on Corbyn...
By sitting on the fence he's managed to get the worst of both worlds, alienating both his Leave and Remain constituencies.
Going more remainy would leave an opening for the Tories, going more leavey difficult to do with the PLP and members. If you can read something from the local elections* it is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain.
*Which maybe you can't nationally.
"t is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain."
You keep on parroting that line, but I've seen f-all evidence pre-election that Labour have been 'pushing' towards Remain.
It'll be interesting to see JRM's interpretation of why his local Bath and North East Somerset council has switched from Con to LD... Clearly not a cry for Brexit there.
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
I'd be somewhat surprised if West Oxfordshire stays Blue. South Oxfordshire has gone LD-Green majority, Vale of WH has gone LD overall, trend is not good for them to retain control.
I'd expect it to stay blue today but there'll be losses. Labour will take seats in Witney and Chipping Norton, Lib Dems will take a couple of rural seats (I'd guess Eynsham and Stonesfield). But there are a lot of rural Tory wards where Labour and the Lib Dems are basically paper candidates. VoWH has had huge LD campaigning activity, West Oxfordshire much less so.
But I wasn't expecting the scale of LD success overnight, so who knows...
> @Sean_F said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control > > > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team. > > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered. The way it being done is crazy and it’s not just costing the Tories. It cost Labour control of the Wirral.
In context, the LD gains so far are not particularly impressive, especially in a context of large losses in Con and Lab vote share. They are relative to the utter LD nadir of 2015. Independents, greens and assorted others have between them picked up 260 net gains against the LDs 271 according to the BBC results tally at this point. The results that impress me are the Greens (where they stood) and especially the Independents.
> > > Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader
>
> >
>
> > Tom Watson lost us 1000 seats Corbyn won 800 back!!
>
> >
>
> > That's as stupid as you sound Comrade.
>
> >
>
> > Labour lost for being too remain though.
>
>
>
> Is that the line from the hive mind?
>
> I think the hive are mainly concentrating their fire on Corbyn...
By sitting on the fence he's managed to get the worst of both worlds, alienating both his Leave and Remain constituencies.
Going more remainy would leave an opening for the Tories, going more leavey difficult to do with the PLP and members. If you can read something from the local elections* it is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain.
*Which maybe you can't nationally.
"t is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain."
You keep on parroting that line, but I've seen f-all evidence pre-election that Labour have been 'pushing' towards Remain.
Every time they refuse to vote fir Brexit they are, every time masses of their MPs tell everyone they want to remain they are. Many are clear any deal even a Labour one must go to referendum which they want to mean remain.
Yes the leadership are not there. But the idea Labour mps would permit any Brexit is just as much a unicorn as many Tories. They say they might leave if s but if x won’t happen we can discount what they say.
> > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
> >
> > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
>
> It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered
That’s what they all say. It’s up there with needing more info and consultation as an excuse, it’s never enough. Housing often is delivered poorly but let’s not kid ourselves in almost all cases people will never be satisfied, there will always be other areas to say it shoukd go.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too. > > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
That is not entirely true, while the Tories lost 1 Epping seat to the LDs last night (and the Liberals now hold all 3 District councillors there) our majority in the other went up from just 33 last year to almost 100 over the LDs largely due to ground game on the day yesterday without which that seat might have gone too.
The national picture tells you if you can play offense or defence, ground game can either expand the gains or minimises the losses
> I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
> @Recidivist said: > The main significance might be that broadcasters are > > forced to take the LibDems seriously again. Vince will > > be back on telly. Since the LibDems lost their third party > > status to the SNP there has been no need to invite > > LibDems as guests or panellists. That will change. > > Not having Vince on the telly might have been what has enabled them to claw their way back.
I think that's a fair point. Those of us who were looking for someone other than Labour and Conservative the Lib Dems had the best name recognition without having to put a face to them. It looks like the next election will be won by the centrist party that can get their momentum going first.
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control > > > > > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team. > > > > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing. > > No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered. The way it being done is crazy and it’s not just costing the Tories. It cost Labour control of the Wirral.
No one is talking about preventing it per se. Just, preventing it in one's own locality.
"t is warning Labour off keeping on pushing towards remain."
You keep on parroting that line, but I've seen f-all evidence pre-election that Labour have been 'pushing' towards Remain.
Every time they refuse to vote fir Brexit they are, every time masses of their MPs tell everyone they want to remain they are. Many are clear any deal even a Labour one must go to referendum which they want to mean remain.
Yes the leadership are not there. But the idea Labour mps would permit any Brexit is just as much a unicorn as many Tories. They say they might leave if s but if x won’t happen we can discount what they say.
There is also the whole voting for a second referendum multiple times, which is basically code for remain. We shouldn't push towards that as hard as we have been.
It seem dishonest to pretend that voting for another referendum isn't voting to potentially remain instead.
It'll be interesting to see JRM's interpretation of why his local Bath and North East Somerset council has switched from Con to LD... Clearly not a cry for Brexit there.
> @Chameleon said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > > > They loved him in the Cotswolds. > > > > Though the district that's just turned Lib Dem is Gloucestershire Cotswolds, while Dave lives in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds (as do I - same county division, as it happens) which will stay blue, at least this time. > > > > We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot". > > I'd be somewhat surprised if West Oxfordshire stays Blue. South Oxfordshire has gone LD-Green majority, Vale of WH has gone LD overall, trend is not good for them to retain control.
It's the creeping Gloucesterization of Oxfordshire! Today, Abingdon - tomorrow the Wold!
I'm not surprised the Greens are doing well. Apart from Green issues leading the news for several weeks Caroline Lucas is by a distance the UK's most attractive and able politician.
Never had a huge problem with her but I’ve never seen the huge appeal either.
In context, the LD gains so far are not particularly impressive, especially in a context of large losses in Con and Lab vote share. They are relative to the utter LD nadir of 2015. Independents, greens and assorted others have between them picked up 260 net gains against the LDs 271 according to the BBC results tally at this point. The results that impress me are the Greens (where they stood) and especially the Independents.
Taking true-blue councils like Cotswold, where they have never, ever, ever, been significant, is "not particularly impressive"?
> @kle4 said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too. > > > > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda. > > > That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere*
Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team.
So, where does this leave the [Labour] party’s Brexit position? The figures in the Leader’s Office who have consistently fought off efforts to make the party explicitly endorse a second referendum will be able to point to the losses in the north as vindication of their argument. Had the party gone all out for a second referendum, the result in these areas would have likely been even worse. On the flip side, the big winner from the local elections is the Lib Dems – an explicitly pro-EU party. They have made the most gains and succeeded in making inroads in Tory areas. This means the People’s Vote campaigners can point to this and argue that a clear Remain position would aid the party.
However, given that Team Corbyn see Leave marginals as crucial to winning a majority, the results in places like Sunderland will worry them. With the Labour/Tory Brexit talks due to come to a close next week, it could work as an incentive to get Corbyn to strike a deal with May.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @kle4 said: > > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529 > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721 > > > > > > In context, the LD gains so far are not particularly impressive, especially in a context of large losses in Con and Lab vote share. They are relative to the utter LD nadir of 2015. Independents, greens and assorted others have between them picked up 260 net gains against the LDs 271 according to the BBC results tally at this point. The results that impress me are the Greens (where they stood) and especially the Independents.
Indeed
The LibDems suffered heavy losses through three election cycles:
> @kle4 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control > > > > > > > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team. > > > > > > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing. > > > > No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered > > That’s what they all say. It’s up there with needing more info and consultation as an excuse, it’s never enough. Housing often is delivered poorly but let’s not kid ourselves in almost all cases people will never be satisfied, there will always be other areas to say it shoukd go.
It’s a lot more complicated than that. It’s type of housing, infrastructure or lack thereof, local services or lack thereof to support new housing. To dismiss all concerns on housing as simply nimbyism and to say it’s all national issues when housing is right up there as a national issue in normal times (which admittedly we haven’t had for a while) seems to me too miss the point. The big message of last night was Brexit, whatever that message was, but it’s not all Brexit and both parties need a credible agenda if Brexit ever gets done.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > > @Foxy said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come? > > > > > > > > > > Vale of the White Hearse? > > > > > > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now. > > > > > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote. > > > > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref. > > > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > They loved him in the Cotswolds.
> @El_Capitano said: > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards. > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight: > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080 > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
> @RochdalePioneers said: > Morning all! My heartfelt considerations to HYUFD in losing by such a narrow margin. > > Interesting results overnight - gains and losses almost at random which does suggest to me that regardless of national issues and trends people in local elections vote on local issues. No surprise that Andy Preston won the Middlesbrough mayoralty, he is a big name, was heavily backed by the local paper, and it's been funny seeing various other independents trying (and fakling) to cling onto his coat tails. > > Stockton-on-Tees starts counting around 9:30. We have seats we are defend g against the Tories, others we hope to gain from Tories and indep3ndents, and one ward where the idiot Tories deselected the two long standing and popular candidates who then ran as I dependents against them. > > My town of Thornaby is us vs the Thornaby independents. After a biter and increasingly negative and abusive campaign from them, and a positive reception on the doors for us, I hope that we will do ok.
Local issues in the context of last night more often than not meant new housing, with lack of accompanying local amenities also being a theme. In reality it's a national issue that plays locally in a lot of places.
Labour losses were early, 25% of Labour defences were declared before 10% of Tory defences. I wondered whether Labour might ultimately break even, but looking this morning I think they are going to end up with a few net losses. As last year, early sets the narrative and is not helpful to Labour. They should get their councils to count slower!
Locally to me, I noted Calderdale as a strong Labour target after last year. My hunch, Labour does just edge into control by a squeak. IIRC, a lot of the marginals are in Calder Valley rather than Halifax, have a fairly narrow distribution of vote profile, but are only averagely leavy.
Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
No, I mean that the Remain vote will wave bye-bye to Labour, and on this showing jump ship to the Lib Dems.
> @bookseller said: > > @kle4 said: > > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too. > > > > > > > > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda. > > > > > > That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it > > Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere* > > Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team.
Fair enough. I have seen nine of that here and LibDems have still made big gains.
I'm not surprised the Greens are doing well. Apart from Green issues leading the news for several weeks Caroline Lucas is by a distance the UK's most attractive and able politician.
> > Like every other event in our broken reality everyone- everyone -is going to claim these results prove them right. The only poll that actually resolves this is another referendum.
>
> The voters are in ornery mood. If you asked them today in a Referendum, should we:
>
> A Leave the European Union
>
> B Remain in the European Union
>
> C Burn down Westminster before we do anything else
> > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
>
> > >
>
> > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
>
> >
>
> > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
>
>
>
> No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered
>
> That’s what they all say. It’s up there with needing more info and consultation as an excuse, it’s never enough. Housing often is delivered poorly but let’s not kid ourselves in almost all cases people will never be satisfied, there will always be other areas to say it shoukd go.
It’s a lot more complicated than that. It’s type of housing, infrastructure or lack thereof, local services or lack thereof to support new housing. To dismiss all concerns on housing as simply nimbyism and to say it’s all national issues when housing is right up there as a national issue in normal times (which admittedly we haven’t had for a while) seems to me too miss the point. The big message of last night was Brexit, whatever that message was, but it’s not all Brexit and both parties need a credible agenda if Brexit ever gets done.
Except I didn’t dismiss all concerns. I explicitly said housing is often delivered poorly. And I said nothing about it just being a national issue. So no I didn’t miss the point. It is still true in my experience that nimbyism is the biggest factor - people will use other arguments but are never satisfied, revealing for a lot, not all, that is a pretext.
It is precisely because I know it is complicated that I believe that - because the majority of objections on housing are very simplistic ignoring the complexity.
> @Roger said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards. > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight: > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080 > > > > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries. > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Vale of the White Hearse? > > > > > > > > > > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now. > > > > > > > > > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote. > > > > > > > > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref. > > > > > > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > > > They loved him in the Cotswolds. > > The people, or the sheep?
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > > @bookseller said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > > > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too. > > > > > > > > > > > > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda. > > > > > > > > > That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it > > > > Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere* > > > > Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team. > > Fair enough. I have seen nine of that here and LibDems have still made big gains.
If it was not for ground game the Tories would probably have lost at least 2 more seats to the LDs in Epping Forest last night both of which they won by less than 100 votes
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Vale of the White Hearse? > > > > > > > > > > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now. > > > > > > > > > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote. > > > > > > > > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref. > > > > > > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > > > They loved him in the Cotswolds. > > The people, or the sheep?
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > > > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Vale of the White Hearse? > > > > > > > > > > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now. > > > > > > > > > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote. > > > > > > > > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref. > > > > > > I reckon that was down to Dave. > > > > They loved him in the Cotswolds. > > The people, or the sheep?
> It'll be interesting to see JRM's interpretation of why his local Bath and North East Somerset council has switched from Con to LD... Clearly not a cry for Brexit there.
>
>
> He will say Tories stayed home in angry protest.
> @malcolmg said: > > @MarqueeMark said: > > > > @mr-claypole said: > > > > Like every other event in our broken reality everyone- everyone -is going to claim these results prove them right. The only poll that actually resolves this is another referendum. > > > > > > The voters are in ornery mood. If you asked them today in a Referendum, should we: > > > > > > A Leave the European Union > > > > > > B Remain in the European Union > > > > > > C Burn down Westminster before we do anything else > > > > > > which outcome do you think would win? > > > > B > > I would go with C
I think it is unreasonable to blame the building for the failure of the occupants.
I would not burn the building, but disperse the occupants to harmless positions of irrelevance in the country.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Roger said: > > > @El_Capitano said: > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards. > > > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080 > > > > > > > > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries. > > > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22. > > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
> @El_Capitano said: > It's the creeping Gloucesterization of Oxfordshire! Today, Abingdon - tomorrow the Wold! > > Bring it on! > > But then we are about to get some new town signs that proudly proclaim us as part of the Cotswolds while omitting the Oxfordshire bit.
Won't stop the border raids on Burford, mate. Lock up yer wimmin!
> @Roger said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Roger said: > > > > @El_Capitano said: > > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards. > > > > > > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries. > > > > > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22. > > > > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them > > Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly. Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
The LD bounce looks like very bad timing for Change UK, but equally CHUK polling even 5% could cost the LDs a fair proportion of potential seats in any GE.
For Labour, I am unsure how vulnerable Corbyn is, but it is hard to see him becoming more vulnerable than he is now in the next couple of years, out of line with his party on Brexit and performing badly electorally. Time for a challenge there.
For the Tories, they remain stuck, a change of leader does not change the parliamentary arithmetic and going into a GE to change it would be incredibly risky. The alternative of paralysis just leaks votes to all sides, not sure what they can do, but time may create some opportunities later on.
> @TOPPING said: > I'm not surprised the Greens are doing well. Apart from Green issues leading the news for several weeks Caroline Lucas is by a distance the UK's most attractive and able politician. > > tmi there, Rog.
Early days and plenty of interesting results to come. My first thoughts are it may not be quite as bad for the Conservatives who may well have been saved by the paucity of opposition in some areas but it doesn't look hugely encouraging for Labour either.
The LD gains I have seen so far are all in areas of former strength in the 80s, 90s and 00s. Councils like Vale of White Horse, North Devon and VWH were won and held for long periods back then so it's good to see these places moving back into the LD fold and allowing the party the opportunity to re-build membership and presence after a decade or more in the wilderness.
Tandridge went pretty much as expected with the Independents the principal beneficiaries of the Conservative collapse. They can now form a minority administration if they so choose with LD support .
So the only big winners are openly remain parties, while the Labour Party and the tories lose significantly. Yet the noises from Labour seem to be "we need to find a deal on Brexit". Ho Hum. They are not really trying to win my vote in Euro election.
Looks like the Greens have made a lot of unexpected gains. They've lost their councillor in Cambridge - where you'd expect them to do well - but they've gained five councillors in Braintree from nothing.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot".
> Corbyn is a fucking disaster. The Kali Ma cultists don't get this - people like our policies. And won't vote for them with Jezbollah as leader
>
> I'd say that's spot on. If Labour had a leader who was not absolutely detested by the general public, they would be on course for a landslide.
Caroline Flint.
> Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
From the people who thought they were going to replace the LDs....
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Changes in Stoke-on-Trent:
> >
> > Lab -5
> > Con +8
> > UKIP -2
> > Ind -1
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48091592
>
> We're seeing the Alf Garnetisation of the Tory Party.
Good description. There are three Tory target seats in that area: Stoke Central, Stoke North, and Newcastle-under-Lyme. Also Labour are defending a 48 vote majority in neighbouring Crewe & Nantwich.
> I reckon that was down to Dave.
>
> They loved him in the Cotswolds.
>
> Though the district that's just turned Lib Dem is Gloucestershire Cotswolds, while Dave lives in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds (as do I - same county division, as it happens) which will stay blue, at least this time.
>
> We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot".
I'd be somewhat surprised if West Oxfordshire stays Blue. South Oxfordshire has gone LD-Green majority, Vale of WH has gone LD overall, trend is not good for them to retain control.
*Which maybe you can't nationally.
It is deliberately confusing.
No, but his replacement might.....
> https://twitter.com/flying_rodent/status/1124204719369535489
>
>
>
> From the people who thought they were going to replace the LDs....
>
> Still a chance they get more votes than LD at the euros. Though after tonight I doubt it.
>
> https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124213144342212608
>
>
>
> No, but his replacement might.....
Nurse!
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
>
> I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
I suppose shoot for the stars and just maybe they'll still be holding onto a couple of parliamentary seats after the next election.
You keep on parroting that line, but I've seen f-all evidence pre-election that Labour have been 'pushing' towards Remain.
> Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
Chelmsford has a pretty strong LD tradition, doesn't it?
> Time to get a new electorate:
>
> https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1124099501394935808
He's a comedian-and a good one!
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
>
>
>
> In most SW parliamentary seats Labour are now in second place and the LDs not been second since 2010. They really need a good council recovery to justify x cannot win here bar charts.
______________
Yet Gwynne on R4 offers as excuse that LibDems are principal opposition to the Tories in the Shires
Green or Lib Dem gain nailed on.
> I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
But I wasn't expecting the scale of LD success overnight, so who knows...
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
> >
> > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
>
> It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered. The way it being done is crazy and it’s not just costing the Tories. It cost Labour control of the Wirral.
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
>
>
In context, the LD gains so far are not particularly impressive, especially in a context of large losses in Con and Lab vote share. They are relative to the utter LD nadir of 2015. Independents, greens and assorted others have between them picked up 260 net gains against the LDs 271 according to the BBC results tally at this point. The results that impress me are the Greens (where they stood) and especially the Independents.
Yes the leadership are not there. But the idea Labour mps would permit any Brexit is just as much a unicorn as many Tories. They say they might leave if s but if x won’t happen we can discount what they say.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Changes in Stoke-on-Trent:
> >
> > Lab -5
> > Con +8
> > UKIP -2
> > Ind -1
> >
> > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48091592
>
> We're seeing the Alf Garnetisation of the Tory Party.
The Cameron legacy.
Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
Greens at 11%. Didn't see that. That is a seriously good performance.
https://twitter.com/agirlcalledlina/status/1123996200691216402?s=21
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
> >
> >
> >
> > In most SW parliamentary seats Labour are now in second place and the LDs not been second since 2010. They really need a good council recovery to justify x cannot win here bar charts.
> ______________
> Yet Gwynne on R4 offers as excuse that LibDems are principal opposition to the Tories in the Shires
There's likely more of a ceiling on the Labour vote in such seats than on the Lib Dem vote.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
>
> I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
That is not entirely true, while the Tories lost 1 Epping seat to the LDs last night (and the Liberals now hold all 3 District councillors there) our majority in the other went up from just 33 last year to almost 100 over the LDs largely due to ground game on the day yesterday without which that seat might have gone too.
The national picture tells you if you can play offense or defence, ground game can either expand the gains or minimises the losses
That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
> The main significance might be that broadcasters are
>
> forced to take the LibDems seriously again. Vince will
>
> be back on telly. Since the LibDems lost their third party
>
> status to the SNP there has been no need to invite
>
> LibDems as guests or panellists. That will change.
>
> Not having Vince on the telly might have been what has enabled them to claw their way back.
I think that's a fair point. Those of us who were looking for someone other than Labour and Conservative the Lib Dems had the best name recognition without having to put a face to them. It looks like the next election will be won by the centrist party that can get their momentum going first.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
> > >
> > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
> >
> > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
>
> No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered. The way it being done is crazy and it’s not just costing the Tories. It cost Labour control of the Wirral.
No one is talking about preventing it per se. Just, preventing it in one's own locality.
It seem dishonest to pretend that voting for another referendum isn't voting to potentially remain instead.
He will say Tories stayed home in angry protest.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > I reckon that was down to Dave.
> >
> > They loved him in the Cotswolds.
> >
> > Though the district that's just turned Lib Dem is Gloucestershire Cotswolds, while Dave lives in the Oxfordshire Cotswolds (as do I - same county division, as it happens) which will stay blue, at least this time.
> >
> > We always loved Dave and Dave loved us. Though our town never voted for him which always amused him greatly... he called us "a disputatious lot".
>
> I'd be somewhat surprised if West Oxfordshire stays Blue. South Oxfordshire has gone LD-Green majority, Vale of WH has gone LD overall, trend is not good for them to retain control.
It's the creeping Gloucesterization of Oxfordshire! Today, Abingdon - tomorrow the Wold!
> Independents trebled. Saw that coming.
> Greens at 11%. Didn't see that. That is a seriously good performance.
11% per candidate, which is fair, rather than seriously good.
Never had a huge problem with her but I’ve never seen the huge appeal either.
I'll have some of what you're on.
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
>
>
>
> All Dave's hard work undone.
Unaffordable housing and student debt was always going to see a LibDem recovery among the middle classes.
The Conservatives forgot about aspiration.
https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1123991084340789248
But then we are about to get some new town signs that proudly proclaim us as part of the Cotswolds while omitting the Oxfordshire bit.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
>
> > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
>
>
>
> I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
>
>
> That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere*
Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team.
However, given that Team Corbyn see Leave marginals as crucial to winning a majority, the results in places like Sunderland will worry them. With the Labour/Tory Brexit talks due to come to a close next week, it could work as an incentive to get Corbyn to strike a deal with May.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-labours-disappointing-result-lead-to-a-change-in-its-brexit-stance/
> > @kle4 said:
> > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
> >
> >
>
> In context, the LD gains so far are not particularly impressive, especially in a context of large losses in Con and Lab vote share. They are relative to the utter LD nadir of 2015. Independents, greens and assorted others have between them picked up 260 net gains against the LDs 271 according to the BBC results tally at this point. The results that impress me are the Greens (where they stood) and especially the Independents.
Indeed
The LibDems suffered heavy losses through three election cycles:
2015 -411
2011 -748
2007 -255
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
>
> > > > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > > Chelmsford (‘Leave area’) - Tories lose 31, LibDems gain 26 and take control
>
> > >
>
> > > I know one of the Tory councillors who lost there. He said development was a huge factor. I suspect he wasn’t the only one to go because of that particular issue. Theresa May and Nick Boles - Labour’s dream team.
>
> >
>
> > It's better to take a hit in local elections than to kill the Conservatives permanently, by preventing new housing.
>
>
>
> No one is talking about preventing new housing - just changing how and where it is delivered
>
> That’s what they all say. It’s up there with needing more info and consultation as an excuse, it’s never enough. Housing often is delivered poorly but let’s not kid ourselves in almost all cases people will never be satisfied, there will always be other areas to say it shoukd go.
It’s a lot more complicated than that. It’s type of housing, infrastructure or lack thereof, local services or lack thereof to support new housing. To dismiss all concerns on housing as simply nimbyism and to say it’s all national issues when housing is right up there as a national issue in normal times (which admittedly we haven’t had for a while) seems to me too miss the point. The big message of last night was Brexit, whatever that message was, but it’s not all Brexit and both parties need a credible agenda if Brexit ever gets done.
> > @Foxy said:
>
> > > @Pulpstar said:
>
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
>
> > > > > @Cicero said:
>
> > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
>
> > > >
>
> > > > Vale of the White Hearse?
>
> > >
>
> > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now.
>
> >
>
> > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote.
>
>
>
> Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref.
>
>
> I reckon that was down to Dave.
>
> They loved him in the Cotswolds.
The people, or the sheep?
https://twitter.com/LeighBoobyer/status/1124125702943596544
> This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
>
> Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
>
> https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
>
>
>
> At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
> Morning all! My heartfelt considerations to HYUFD in losing by such a narrow margin.
>
> Interesting results overnight - gains and losses almost at random which does suggest to me that regardless of national issues and trends people in local elections vote on local issues. No surprise that Andy Preston won the Middlesbrough mayoralty, he is a big name, was heavily backed by the local paper, and it's been funny seeing various other independents trying (and fakling) to cling onto his coat tails.
>
> Stockton-on-Tees starts counting around 9:30. We have seats we are defend g against the Tories, others we hope to gain from Tories and indep3ndents, and one ward where the idiot Tories deselected the two long standing and popular candidates who then ran as I dependents against them.
>
> My town of Thornaby is us vs the Thornaby independents. After a biter and increasingly negative and abusive campaign from them, and a positive reception on the doors for us, I hope that we will do ok.
Thanks
Local issues in the context of last night more often than not meant new housing, with lack of accompanying local amenities also being a theme. In reality it's a national issue that plays locally in a lot of places.
Labour losses were early, 25% of Labour defences were declared before 10% of Tory defences. I wondered whether Labour might ultimately break even, but looking this morning I think they are going to end up with a few net losses. As last year, early sets the narrative and is not helpful to Labour. They should get their councils to count slower!
Locally to me, I noted Calderdale as a strong Labour target after last year. My hunch, Labour does just edge into control by a squeak. IIRC, a lot of the marginals are in Calder Valley rather than Halifax, have a fairly narrow distribution of vote profile, but are only averagely leavy.
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> >
> > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
> >
> >
> >
> > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
> >
> >
> > That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
>
> Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere*
>
> Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team.
Fair enough. I have seen nine of that here and LibDems have still made big gains.
It is precisely because I know it is complicated that I believe that - because the majority of objections on housing are very simplistic ignoring the complexity.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
> >
> > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
> >
> >
> >
> > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
>
> Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> >
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> >
> > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > Vale of the White Hearse?
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote.
> >
> >
> >
> > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref.
> >
> >
> > I reckon that was down to Dave.
> >
> > They loved him in the Cotswolds.
>
> The people, or the sheep?
Both more than the pigs.....
> > @bookseller said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > >
> > > > I am just surprised how little work the LD’s appear to have had to do to pick up the votes they have. I have seen no leaflets, no canvassing, and virtually no posters. A plague on both your houses seems to be the message from the electorate to Labour and the Conservatives. Turnout seems very variable but on the low side too.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I keep saying that the 'ground game' is a load of nonsense. It just makes activists feel good about themselves. In all but a handful of cases elections are determined on the national agenda.
> > >
> > >
> > > That’s a shame but often seems true and people know it
> >
> > Sorry Andy, but that's just not true where I am (Vale of White Horse). Having played a (very minor) part in the ground game, the Lib Dems have smashed it. Leaflets, door knocking, phonecalls, fund raising and media coverage. They have been *everywhere*
> >
> > Have to say though: it does help having a charismatic and high profile local MP who took a full and active part in the campaigning. Very much energised the home team.
>
> Fair enough. I have seen nine of that here and LibDems have still made big gains.
If it was not for ground game the Tories would probably have lost at least 2 more seats to the LDs in Epping Forest last night both of which they won by less than 100 votes
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> >
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> >
> > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > Vale of the White Hearse?
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote.
> >
> >
> >
> > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref.
> >
> >
> > I reckon that was down to Dave.
> >
> > They loved him in the Cotswolds.
>
> The people, or the sheep?
The pigs.
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
>
>
>
> It'll be interesting to see JRM's interpretation of why his local Bath and North East Somerset council has switched from Con to LD... Clearly not a cry for Brexit there.
>
>
> He will say Tories stayed home in angry protest.
Was turnout down there compared to usual?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> >
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> >
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> >
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> >
> > > > > > So Cotswold in Glos, Vale of the White Hirse and South Oxfordshire in Oxon... Any other surprises from the Tory heartlands still to come?
> >
> > > > >
> >
> > > > > Vale of the White Hearse?
> >
> > > >
> >
> > > > I have a mental image of people walking in the Cotswolds telling each other how frightful and ghastly Brexit is now.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Not just in the Cotswolds, but across much of Shire England, and these are people who vote.
> >
> >
> >
> > Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain at the big Ref.
> >
> >
> > I reckon that was down to Dave.
> >
> > They loved him in the Cotswolds.
>
> The people, or the sheep?
Both. The pigs, not so much...
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211881231646721
>
>
>
> It'll be interesting to see JRM's interpretation of why his local Bath and North East Somerset council has switched from Con to LD... Clearly not a cry for Brexit there.
>
>
> He will say Tories stayed home in angry protest.
Will turnout back him up?
> > @MarqueeMark said:
>
> > > @mr-claypole said:
>
> > > Like every other event in our broken reality everyone- everyone -is going to claim these results prove them right. The only poll that actually resolves this is another referendum.
>
> >
>
> > The voters are in ornery mood. If you asked them today in a Referendum, should we:
>
> >
>
> > A Leave the European Union
>
> >
>
> > B Remain in the European Union
>
> >
>
> > C Burn down Westminster before we do anything else
>
> >
>
> > which outcome do you think would win?
>
>
>
> B
>
> I would go with C
I think it is unreasonable to blame the building for the failure of the occupants.
I would not burn the building, but disperse the occupants to harmless positions of irrelevance in the country.
> > @Roger said:
> > > @El_Capitano said:
> > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
> > >
> > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
> >
> > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
>
> We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
> > > https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1124211386521878529
You mean "Give the LDs and inch and they take 2 kilometers"
> It's the creeping Gloucesterization of Oxfordshire! Today, Abingdon - tomorrow the Wold!
>
> Bring it on!
>
> But then we are about to get some new town signs that proudly proclaim us as part of the Cotswolds while omitting the Oxfordshire bit.
Won't stop the border raids on Burford, mate. Lock up yer wimmin!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Roger said:
> > > > @El_Capitano said:
> > > > This may be a hostage to fortune but I wonder if the news is only going to get better for the Lib Dems from today onwards.
> > > >
> > > > Labour is showing every sign of tacking towards a Brexit deal with the Tories as a reaction to tonight:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > At which point, bye-bye Remain vote. And so far the Lib Dems look to be the chief beneficiaries.
> > >
> > > Remainer's are made of sterner stuff. If and when we leave the campain to rejoin will start almost immediately and depending how bad things get leading that could be quite a powerful force by 2021/22.
> >
> > We had several ballot papers last night with just 'Brexit' scrawled across them
>
> Hard luck by the way. Someone posted that you lost very narrowly.
Thanks, yes lost by 2 votes after a recount to the Mayor elect for the final seat but there we go not much you can do about that
For Labour, I am unsure how vulnerable Corbyn is, but it is hard to see him becoming more vulnerable than he is now in the next couple of years, out of line with his party on Brexit and performing badly electorally. Time for a challenge there.
For the Tories, they remain stuck, a change of leader does not change the parliamentary arithmetic and going into a GE to change it would be incredibly risky. The alternative of paralysis just leaks votes to all sides, not sure what they can do, but time may create some opportunities later on.
> I'm not surprised the Greens are doing well. Apart from Green issues leading the news for several weeks Caroline Lucas is by a distance the UK's most attractive and able politician.
>
> tmi there, Rog.
You going through a midlife crisis or something?
> HYUFD: do you mind me asking on which town council you were seeking election?
Epping
Early days and plenty of interesting results to come. My first thoughts are it may not be quite as bad for the Conservatives who may well have been saved by the paucity of opposition in some areas but it doesn't look hugely encouraging for Labour either.
The LD gains I have seen so far are all in areas of former strength in the 80s, 90s and 00s. Councils like Vale of White Horse, North Devon and VWH were won and held for long periods back then so it's good to see these places moving back into the LD fold and allowing the party the opportunity to re-build membership and presence after a decade or more in the wilderness.
Tandridge went pretty much as expected with the Independents the principal beneficiaries of the Conservative collapse. They can now form a minority administration if they so choose with LD support .
Ho Hum. They are not really trying to win my vote in Euro election.