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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

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    Next said:

    "the person defamed has recourse to courts of justice to vindicate their reputation"

    IF they have lots of money to pay for lawyers.

    That is a legitimate point, and it is arguable that the end of conditional free agreements combined with costs insurance as a result of Lord Justice Jackson's reforms have restricted access to justice. Similarly, the narrowing of the test for defamation by s. 1 of the Defamation Act 2013, and the outrageous replacement of the Reynolds defence by that Act do to an extent amount to a defamers' charter.

    The issue which Leveson P never considered was conferring defamation jurisdiction on the County Court, which would have massively reduced costs in bringing defamation actions. A cynic might argue that this was because members of the media bar exclusively made submissions to the inquiry, and were unlikely to have submitted a proposal which would have dramatically reduced their income.

    What Leveson P should have focused on was improving access to justice in cases of defamation, rather than circuitous and unnecessary schemes of regulation which had the inevitable and undesirable consequence of statutory underpinning.
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    F1: a wishbone failed on Hamilton's car. The team hopes to repair it under parc ferme, but let's hope they can't (it would improve the chances of both bets coming off).
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Mr. Ajob, if the state is to be the arbiter not merely of taxes due but of wages paid, will we be cutting footballers salaries to fund increases to the remuneration offered to heart surgeons?

    No, of course not. You were the one touting classical economic theory as if it were science, which it is not. Economics is based on a whole range of assumptions, most of which turn out to be wrong.

    For example, I don't know what you do for a living but do you think your wages match exactly your productivity? Some people do, most people don't. Is this just because everyone always thinks they are worth more? Or are some people - gasp - underpaid and others overpaid?

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It quite possibly did. The question is how long she should be able to stay on JSA looking solely for her one preferred role. Especially if she was looking for a "New Graduate" role: they tend to come round once a year, if she misses out one year, should she be able to stay on JSA for year waiting for another job to become available? I don't know how long she was unemployed before being sent to work at Poundland, but surely it makes sense for her to work temporarily in a shop while applying for the academic type job she actually wants?

    IIRC she wanted a job as a curator.

    The arts is a terrible career choice: very few jobs available and those pay terribly. The usually approach is to intern for free for several posts, each which can last months (we actually pay our interns, but that is through choice - as a charity we think it is wrong to take advantage of kids just out of university - rather than because we would need to do so to attract highly qualified people)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.
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    tim said:
    So under £18k before deductions is a living wage in London is it ?

    Does it buy you a semi in Ilford or a flat in Finchley ?

    After all you don't think people on the 'living wage' should have any state help on benefits or housing costs.

    Boris's support for a 'living wage' is just another political gimmick
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    tim said:

    Indeed, Mr. Eagles. The space cannon is even more effective!

    In space, no-one can hear you apply to the European Court of Human Rights.

    I know this may not be popular view, here or in the country at large, but the ECHR generally is a force for good.
    It represents British values, like the BBC and the NHS do, of course the Tea Party Tories hate it
    Since when has child rape been a British value?

    It seems both organisations are up to their necks in it.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Got this earlier:

    info@getbritainout.org

    Strong stuff!

    Isn't that Richard Body's group?

    If so, my advice would be to rearrange this sentence: bargepole don't with touch a
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    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
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    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    @vincentmoss: @Ed_Miliband to give firms tax rebate if they back Living Wage and workers get a rise. In @TheSundayMirror

    So a business which has bee paying its employees low wages will get a tax rebate if it increases them.

    What tax rebate will a business which already pays the 'living wage' get ?

    Another idea which falls apart in seconds.
    I realise Tories are addicted to the state using benefits to subsidise low pay.

    If they're given a tax rebate to increase low pay then that's the equivalent of state subsidy.

    You seem to have a belief that business can increase earnings without any effect.

    Let me explain:

    1) Business increases earnings
    2) Business costs increase
    3) Business has to raise prices
    4) Customers have to pay more

    Now tim are you willing to pay more for British produced goods and services so that the low paid can have a pay rise ?

    Are you willing to reduce your standard of living so that the low paid can increase their's ?

    I am and do try to buy British produced goods and services. I can afford to do so and the consequent psychic satisfaction this gives me outweighs the standard of living reduction. This is a voluntary form of wealth redistribution which I find acceptable.

    But if other people don't do likewise then the only effect will be fewer people employed.
    Of course, you forget to factor in the effect of putting more money in the pockets of the low paid, the group most likely to spend and not save any increase in earnings. If what you said was true in all cases the initial imposition of a minimum wage would have caused mass unemployment. It didn't.
    But the low paid wont be getting any more money will they.

    For the few pounds more of pay they get tim wants to take away their benefits and housing help.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    tim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    Living wage is much bigger, nicely timed post though

    Honestly, it might be good with idiots but Ed and Labour should know better than to go for that kind of populism which will hobble companies which provide unskilled labour. All it will do is hasten the decline of unskilled and semi-skilled production based companies and jobs as they move out of the country.

    Populism is popular, yes. But Ed should know better. He is doing and saying whatever he can to win, but when it comes time to implement these policies it will be bad for all of us.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The rise in youth unemployment preceeds the current economic problems. It started over a decade ago. In part it may be because of the 2004 accession countries. If you are going to employ someone on minimum wage then it makes more sense to employ someone more mature and reliable. The sad fact is that the amount of useful work that a minority of school leavers contribute to a business does not reach the value of the minimum wage to an employer. It may be that a period on sub Minimum wage would allow them to reach a skill level that would be productive to an employer.

    In answer to tim: Unemployment is very destructive to lives, which is why both Labour and Coalition governments subsidise earnings via taxes and benefits. Personally I prefer the raising of tax thresholds, which is one reason I vote LibDem. The alternative of High minimum wage and absence of subsidy does seem likely to increase youth unemployment, particularly in low wage economies like Merseyside. Not good foe either our youth, or our economy.

    DOI I earned £1.20 per hour in my first paid job in 1981, probably equivalent to £3 per hour now. It taught me the value of both money and the value of hard work, both useful lessons when a teenager!

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Ajob, it's worth considering the interesting theory that the minimum wage has helped to create a significant problem of high youth unemployment. If you legislate to make everyone have a higher wage then either many people will have no wage at all, or you create more inflation.

    It's in danger of becoming like the donatives the army enjoyed in imperial Rome.

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    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
    We have a fixed term parliament. There's no need for any of the parties to make a premature announcement about any policy.

    .



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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Richard

    I was referring specifically to your four points about minimum wage setting - not to the Ed policy specifically, which I haven't studied
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    Living wage is much bigger, nicely timed post though

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    Isn't it just a MOE variation?

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    Charles said:

    Got this earlier:

    info@getbritainout.org

    Strong stuff!

    Isn't that Richard Body's group?

    If so, my advice would be to rearrange this sentence: bargepole don't with touch a
    "Whenever I see him approaching, I hear the flapping of white coats"

    I am a UKIP supporter, I want out of Europe but also support many of their many other policies.

    This other mob seem a real bunch of nutters.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Presumably YouGov must be steady as she goes or better for Labour as Tom Newton Dunn hasn't popped up
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    So you'd prefer to pay benefits and housing costs to Starbucks workers instead, fine, most Tories would.

    In an ideal world, wages would be doubled, the Sun would always shine, and we could extract moonbeams from cucumbers.

    In the real world, businesses have to remain competitive and wages are related to levels of productivity.
    Productivity hasn't changed much in a London coffee shop, bu the amount the state subsidises Starbucks through paying a chunk of its workforces housing costs has risen hugely
    So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices and replacing high paying/productivity factory jobs with low paying/productivity consumer service jobs might have been a little flawed ?

    But if you think that coffee shops should pay their workers more that's fine by me.

    The result will mean fewer customers and many coffee shops closing but I've never seen the attraction to them in any case.

    I dare say it would mean those hand carwashes closing down as well.

    And loads of other low skilled service workers adding to the unemployment total.

    Unless that is people are prepared to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And that's the point when PB lefties lose their interest in helping the low paid.

    "So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices "

    Er...you have not been following the news lately. It is Osborne who is fuelling a housing bubble with guarateed deposits. We did not have that even in the previous housing bubbles. This is going to be the father and mother of all housing bubbles. No wonder SeanT is so happy !
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    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
    We have a fixed term parliament. There's no need for any of the parties to make a premature announcement about any policy.
    .
    I was thinking about that earlier, isn't it a shame for all the Westminster tweeters that they can't be hanging on any clue from Downing Street as to maybe going early, snap election speculation, Marr-morning interviews, advertising boards being booked up, sudden trips to find some UK military backdrops, endless whispers about possible dates and how winter dates aren't good as it's too dark etc etc..... think of the tens of thousands of tweets that have been lost to humanity just by having a fixed term.

    Now that was a good policy!

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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Charles said:

    Got this earlier:

    info@getbritainout.org

    Strong stuff!

    Isn't that Richard Body's group?

    If so, my advice would be to rearrange this sentence: bargepole don't with touch a
    :) "Buy the longest barge pole you can find and don't touch it with it"
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited November 2013


    DOI I earned £1.20 per hour in my first paid job in 1981, probably equivalent to £3 per hour now. It taught me the value of both money and the value of hard work, both useful lessons when a teenager!

    £5.85, actually... more than the minimum wage for a 20 year old in today's money.

    See also:

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html

    http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/old-economy-steven
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    tim said:

    @vincentmoss: @Ed_Miliband to give firms tax rebate if they back Living Wage and workers get a rise. In @TheSundayMirror

    So a business which has been paying its employees low wages will get a tax rebate if it increases them.

    What tax rebate will a business which already pays the 'living wage' get ?

    Another idea which falls apart in seconds.
    Has anyone provided a definition for a living wage?

    The 'living wage' is deemed to be £8.55ph in London and £7.45ph elsewhere.

    ie under £18k before deductions in London and under £15.5k before deductions elsewhere.

    And for this munificence it seems tim wants to remove all state benefits and help with housing costs AND give their employers a tax rebate.

    I never knew that tim was such a hard hearted capitalist.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    edited November 2013
    Charles, John Lilburne - Many working in the arts often do other work at the same time, for example actors doing bar work or waiting until they get a new role. While most arts roles don't pay very much more than an average wage at best, at the top end eg actors who get into Hollywood, or musicians who get a top 10 record, or novelists who write a best seller the rewards are vast. On Cait Reilly, personally I do not have a problem with her doing volunteering at museum as work experience for her JSA benefits, it is of more practical use for her skill level than working in a supermarket (although she has now decided to take a paid role in a supermarket of her own volition).
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    tim said:

    MaxPB said:

    tim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    Living wage is much bigger, nicely timed post though

    Honestly, it might be good with idiots but Ed and Labour should know better than to go for that kind of populism which will hobble companies which provide unskilled labour. All it will do is hasten the decline of unskilled and semi-skilled production based companies and jobs as they move out of the country.

    Populism is popular, yes. But Ed should know better. He is doing and saying whatever he can to win, but when it comes time to implement these policies it will be bad for all of us.

    I realise you prefer the taxpayer to subsidise wages directly through benefits, along with high rents
    Please don't put words in my mouth. I don't see how increasing the minimum wage helps people on lower wages keep their jobs. In fact it will lead to more benefit payments as unemployment rises as jobs are destroyed.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    So you'd prefer to pay benefits and housing costs to Starbucks workers instead, fine, most Tories would.

    In an ideal world, wages would be doubled, the Sun would always shine, and we could extract moonbeams from cucumbers.

    In the real world, businesses have to remain competitive and wages are related to levels of productivity.
    Productivity hasn't changed much in a London coffee shop, bu the amount the state subsidises Starbucks through paying a chunk of its workforces housing costs has risen hugely
    So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices and replacing high paying/productivity factory jobs with low paying/productivity consumer service jobs might have been a little flawed ?

    But if you think that coffee shops should pay their workers more that's fine by me.

    The result will mean fewer customers and many coffee shops closing but I've never seen the attraction to them in any case.

    I dare say it would mean those hand carwashes closing down as well.

    And loads of other low skilled service workers adding to the unemployment total.

    Unless that is people are prepared to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And that's the point when PB lefties lose their interest in helping the low paid.

    "So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices "

    Er...you have not been following the news lately. It is Osborne who is fuelling a housing bubble with guarateed deposits. We did not have that even in the previous housing bubbles. This is going to be the father and mother of all housing bubbles. No wonder SeanT is so happy !
    House prices as a multiple of income are c. 5x, substantially lower than under the last government. This is even national, not excluding London, which is a special case.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Speaking of those who have had a successful career in the arts, I had an enjoyable afternoon with Dame Edna Everage and Sir Les Patterson at Barry Humphries' Farewell Tour at the Cardiff Millennium Centre!






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    Now I'm not very bright and I'm seeing the line is that only bright Tories support something when Ed M says something

    BUT should we expect Ed Balls to be resigning or withdrawing his critique of Ed M's idea or is he a PB Tory too now?
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    So you'd prefer to pay benefits and housing costs to Starbucks workers instead, fine, most Tories would.

    In an ideal world, wages would be doubled, the Sun would always shine, and we could extract moonbeams from cucumbers.

    In the real world, businesses have to remain competitive and wages are related to levels of productivity.
    Productivity hasn't changed much in a London coffee shop, bu the amount the state subsidises Starbucks through paying a chunk of its workforces housing costs has risen hugely
    So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices and replacing high paying/productivity factory jobs with low paying/productivity consumer service jobs might have been a little flawed ?

    But if you think that coffee shops should pay their workers more that's fine by me.

    The result will mean fewer customers and many coffee shops closing but I've never seen the attraction to them in any case.

    I dare say it would mean those hand carwashes closing down as well.

    And loads of other low skilled service workers adding to the unemployment total.

    Unless that is people are prepared to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And that's the point when PB lefties lose their interest in helping the low paid.

    "So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices "

    Er...you have not been following the news lately. It is Osborne who is fuelling a housing bubble with guarateed deposits. We did not have that even in the previous housing bubbles. This is going to be the father and mother of all housing bubbles. No wonder SeanT is so happy !
    My house in the London suburbs is now worth £10,000 more than when I bought it at the end of July, unimproved. It is a quite remarkable market here, fuelled by Help to Buy pushing into the bottom rung.
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    The 'living wage' is deemed to be £8.55ph in London and £7.45ph elsewhere.

    ie under £18k before deductions in London and under £15.5k before deductions elsewhere.

    And for this munificence it seems tim wants to remove all state benefits and help with housing costs AND give their employers a tax rebate.

    I never knew that tim was such a hard hearted capitalist.

    Ha. No wonder those figures aren't mentioned too much. I thought it was nearer £25K.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited November 2013
    YouGov Labour 9pt lead according to Oakeshott.

    And 'The Wizard of Oz, aka Lynton Crosby, signs £500k-a-year deal to go full time for Tories, SundayTimes reveals.'
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    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    So you'd prefer to pay benefits and housing costs to Starbucks workers instead, fine, most Tories would.

    In an ideal world, wages would be doubled, the Sun would always shine, and we could extract moonbeams from cucumbers.

    In the real world, businesses have to remain competitive and wages are related to levels of productivity.
    Productivity hasn't changed much in a London coffee shop, bu the amount the state subsidises Starbucks through paying a chunk of its workforces housing costs has risen hugely
    So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices and replacing high paying/productivity factory jobs with low paying/productivity consumer service jobs might have been a little flawed ?

    But if you think that coffee shops should pay their workers more that's fine by me.

    The result will mean fewer customers and many coffee shops closing but I've never seen the attraction to them in any case.

    I dare say it would mean those hand carwashes closing down as well.

    And loads of other low skilled service workers adding to the unemployment total.

    Unless that is people are prepared to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And that's the point when PB lefties lose their interest in helping the low paid.

    "So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices "

    Er...you have not been following the news lately. It is Osborne who is fuelling a housing bubble with guarateed deposits. We did not have that even in the previous housing bubbles. This is going to be the father and mother of all housing bubbles. No wonder SeanT is so happy !
    Osborne is following the same policy regards house prices as Brown ie ever rising house prices.

    I believe tim has pointed that out on a few occasions.

    That it is bad for the economy is not in doubt.

    Nor is that Labour followed the same policy under Blair and Brown and will do so again under Miliband.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited November 2013
    Bobajob said:

    surbiton said:

    tim said:

    Sean_F said:

    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    So you'd prefer to pay benefits and housing costs to Starbucks workers instead, fine, most Tories would.

    In an ideal world, wages would be doubled, the Sun would always shine, and we could extract moonbeams from cucumbers.

    In the real world, businesses have to remain competitive and wages are related to levels of productivity.
    Productivity hasn't changed much in a London coffee shop, bu the amount the state subsidises Starbucks through paying a chunk of its workforces housing costs has risen hugely
    So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices and replacing high paying/productivity factory jobs with low paying/productivity consumer service jobs might have been a little flawed ?

    But if you think that coffee shops should pay their workers more that's fine by me.

    The result will mean fewer customers and many coffee shops closing but I've never seen the attraction to them in any case.

    I dare say it would mean those hand carwashes closing down as well.

    And loads of other low skilled service workers adding to the unemployment total.

    Unless that is people are prepared to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And that's the point when PB lefties lose their interest in helping the low paid.

    "So are you suggesting that the Labour's economic policy of ever rising house prices "

    Er...you have not been following the news lately. It is Osborne who is fuelling a housing bubble with guarateed deposits. We did not have that even in the previous housing bubbles. This is going to be the father and mother of all housing bubbles. No wonder SeanT is so happy !
    My house in the London suburbs is now worth £10,000 more than when I bought it at the end of July, unimproved. It is a quite remarkable market here, fuelled by Help to Buy pushing into the bottom rung.
    So you are still down then thanks to the stamp duty? Stay in there for the long term... good work on the deficit though, gawd bless you.

  • Options
    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
    We have a fixed term parliament. There's no need for any of the parties to make a premature announcement about any policy.

    .



    Correct, I would have hung on until conference 2014, were it me. But the PB Tories were banging on day after day about Ed's lack of policies, so he buckled and played the card early.
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    And on it goes:

    Tomorrow's @thesundaytimes front page: Revealed: Miliband's dossier on union plot #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/CKqc5Tb2ne
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Now I'm not very bright and I'm seeing the line is that only bright Tories support something when Ed M says something

    BUT should we expect Ed Balls to be resigning or withdrawing his critique of Ed M's idea or is he a PB Tory too now?

    Has Ed Balls repeated his criticism or are we still quoting from 3 years ago?

    Because if we're going to demand withdrawal of critiques from 2010 the phrase "economic masochism" comes to mind from Cleggy
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I think there's a poll on the fp of the Telegraph re the BBC that is going to set PB off for days.
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    Isabel Oakeshott: YouGov poll for Sunday Times this wkend gives Lab a 9 point lead over Tories. @Ed_Miliband seems to be consolidating his position slightly
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,023

    tim said:
    So under £18k before deductions is a living wage in London is it ?

    Does it buy you a semi in Ilford or a flat in Finchley ?

    After all you don't think people on the 'living wage' should have any state help on benefits or housing costs.

    Boris's support for a 'living wage' is just another political gimmick
    Boris is a plank, and if people choose to work and live in London , the rest of the country should not be forced to fund them
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited November 2013
    Chucks chum in water:

    'More people think BBC has bias to left than bias to right – poll http://gu.com/p/3k43m/tf' helm
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Scrapheap

    I don't plan on leaving! It's our family house. I only bought the bloody place three months ago... I was just making a point about rocketing values.
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    Freggles said:

    Now I'm not very bright and I'm seeing the line is that only bright Tories support something when Ed M says something

    BUT should we expect Ed Balls to be resigning or withdrawing his critique of Ed M's idea or is he a PB Tory too now?

    Has Ed Balls repeated his criticism or are we still quoting from 3 years ago?

    Because if we're going to demand withdrawal of critiques from 2010 the phrase "economic masochism" comes to mind from Cleggy

    Time is a nebulous concept - the terrible tory with his terrible property tax trick last night was I think from circa 2002.... yet the tense in the headline was present and not past I believe...
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    And on it goes:

    Tomorrow's @thesundaytimes front page: Revealed: Miliband's dossier on union plot #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/CKqc5Tb2ne

    In the same paper - Labour +9 (YouGov)
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited November 2013
    Bobajob said:

    @Scrapheap

    I don't plan on leaving! It's our family house. I only bought the bloody place three months ago... I was just making a point about rocketing values.

    Resi property just like any other asset class - except you can live in it and some nice tax breaks - it's the royal mail share price of the masses. Not so great for stagging though due to the stamp duty differentials.....
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    Bobajob said:

    @Richard

    I was referring specifically to your four points about minimum wage setting - not to the Ed policy specifically, which I haven't studied

    I have nothing against redistributing more wealth to the low paid.

    But if we're to do that through higher pay (as opposed to for example lower income tax deductions) then it will only work if consumers are willing to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And at that point people don't seem willing to put their money where their keyboard is.

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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486



    Time is a nebulous concept - the terrible tory with his terrible property tax trick last night was I think from circa 2002.... yet the tense in the headline was present and not past I believe...

    It's about freshness not age
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    @Scrapheap

    I don't plan on leaving! It's our family house. I only bought the bloody place three months ago... I was just making a point about rocketing values.

    Resi property just like any other asset class - except you can live in it and some nice tax breaks - it's the royal mail share price of the masses.
    Agreed. The only value it is to me is I get a better loan to value when I come to remortgage, but otherwise rises are irrelevant to the owner unless one plans to leave London (which is clearly out of the question!)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,346

    Next said:

    "the person defamed has recourse to courts of justice to vindicate their reputation"

    IF they have lots of money to pay for lawyers.

    That is a legitimate point, and it is arguable that the end of conditional free agreements combined with costs insurance as a result of Lord Justice Jackson's reforms have restricted access to justice. Similarly, the narrowing of the test for defamation by s. 1 of the Defamation Act 2013, and the outrageous replacement of the Reynolds defence by that Act do to an extent amount to a defamers' charter.
    Would it be worth considering a Small Liberl Court, organised on similar lines to those that I understand pertain to the Small Claims Court (no lawyers, no jury, minimal procedure, fixed costs), and with power only to award relatively modest damages (say £1000) but to instruct any publication that had carried the libel to display a correction with equal prominene? That would give access to justice for people who didn't especially want to get rich from a libel case but simply wanted to clear their name.

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    Bobajob said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Scrapheap

    I don't plan on leaving! It's our family house. I only bought the bloody place three months ago... I was just making a point about rocketing values.

    Resi property just like any other asset class - except you can live in it and some nice tax breaks - it's the royal mail share price of the masses.
    Agreed. The only value it is to me is I get a better loan to value when I come to remortgage, but otherwise rises are irrelevant to the owner unless one plans to leave London (which is clearly out of the question!)
    Not for my clients, I really should be hosting Escape to the Country not blinking Jenny Bond or whoever it is these days!
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Isabel Oakeshott: YouGov poll for Sunday Times this wkend gives Lab a 9 point lead over Tories. @Ed_Miliband seems to be consolidating his position slightly

    The Unite/Grangemouth/Falkirk/Eric Joyce effect perhaps?
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    @Richard

    I was referring specifically to your four points about minimum wage setting - not to the Ed policy specifically, which I haven't studied

    I have nothing against redistributing more wealth to the low paid.

    But if we're to do that through higher pay (as opposed to for example lower income tax deductions) then it will only work if consumers are willing to pay more for British produced goods and services.

    And at that point people don't seem willing to put their money where their keyboard is.

    I try to where I can Richard - but voluntary measures like that only get you so far (too few people adopt them)

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    Would it be worth considering a Small Liberl Court, organised on similar lines to those that I understand pertain to the Small Claims Court (no lawyers, no jury, minimal procedure, fixed costs), and with power only to award relatively modest damages (say £1000) but to instruct any publication that had carried the libel to display a correction with equal prominene? That would give access to justice for people who didn't especially want to get rich from a libel case but simply wanted to clear their name.

    Precisely. There is no reason why defamation shouldn't go to the County Court (and if, of sufficiently low value, to the small claims track), unless there is a point of law or of fact of such complexity that it should be determined by a Judge of the High Court. Such a step would have negated the need for the "arbitral arm", provided better and cheaper access to justice for litigants, and would have the great advantage of simplicity. As I said, one does not have to be a conspiracy theorist to appreciate why it was never considered.
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    tim said:

    @anotherrichard

    And for this munificence it seems tim wants to remove all state benefits and help with housing costs AND give their employers a tax rebate.

    I never knew that tim was such a hard hearted capitalist.


    Stop making things up, rents are a bigger issue than just wages.
    But you and most of your party are addicted to subsidising low pay through the benefits system

    And what party would that be ? The same party which Josias accused me of being a supporter of ?

    I just say what I think and enjoy punching holes through political gimmicks which wont work in the real world.

    And that's what this 'living wage' idea is - another political gimmick which wont work in the real world.

    Let me explain:

    We are a high cost country but have millions of low skilled/productivity workers.

    These people can only afford to live through either state subsidies or by people buying their economic output at a higher price than it is worth.

    As not enough people are willing to buy this uneconomic output then the government will tax them and redistribute the money to the low skilled/productive to maintain social harmony.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles, John Lilburne - Many working in the arts often do other work at the same time, for example actors doing bar work or waiting until they get a new role. While most arts roles don't pay very much more than an average wage at best, at the top end eg actors who get into Hollywood, or musicians who get a top 10 record, or novelists who write a best seller the rewards are vast. On Cait Reilly, personally I do not have a problem with her doing volunteering at museum as work experience for her JSA benefits, it is of more practical use for her skill level than working in a supermarket (although she has now decided to take a paid role in a supermarket of her own volition).

    I wasn't referring to the arts in the sense of creatives, but more the museum sector - closer to working for a charity than anything else.

    As for someone in Cait Riley's position, the question is how long you fund her ambitions - it's reasonable to allow her to give it a shot, but if she doesn't get a role in a shortish time then she should either work part time and volunteer to get an edge of she should do something else. JSA should support people in need, not perpetually fund a dream that just isn't turning out the way you might want it to.
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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Isabel Oakeshott: YouGov poll for Sunday Times this wkend gives Lab a 9 point lead over Tories. @Ed_Miliband seems to be consolidating his position slightly

    The Unite/Grangemouth/Falkirk/Eric Joyce effect perhaps?
    This calling in the cops at Grangemouth is killing Ed.
    Just killing him.


    The polling on earth is simply not reflecting the polling in PB Toryworld.

    You must have been taking to Richardos - I think it was him having a crack at Mike the other day for basing his analyses on polling.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Bobajob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
    We have a fixed term parliament. There's no need for any of the parties to make a premature announcement about any policy.

    .



    Correct, I would have hung on until conference 2014, were it me. But the PB Tories were banging on day after day about Ed's lack of policies, so he buckled and played the card early.
    Sounds like you think Ed is a bit crap... ;-)
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited November 2013
    The Observer, and their fellow travellers seem outraged that Mr Miranda (link) was stopped because, according to the Police, inter alia:
    'the disclosure or threat of disclosure is designed to influence a government, and is made for the purpose of promoting a political or ideological cause.'
    What a surprise it is that the police are merely parroting the definition of terrorism found in s.1 of the Terrorism Act 2000?
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    Charles said:

    Bobajob said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ed's ratings dropping are not a good omen. He has turned into a one policy leader. Yes the energy price freeze has gone down well with voters but I think people are now all wondering "what else?" And there isn't much else.

    I hear the cones hotline is set for a comeback next. That and 10 bank holidays more a year.
    We have a fixed term parliament. There's no need for any of the parties to make a premature announcement about any policy.

    Correct, I would have hung on until conference 2014, were it me. But the PB Tories were banging on day after day about Ed's lack of policies, so he buckled and played the card early.
    Sounds like you think Ed is a bit crap... ;-)
    Super Ed's Sainsburys "Basics" label would read: "A bit crap but still as progressive as ever"

    :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    David Jack @DJack_Journo
    Almost twice as many people think BBC has leftwing bias as believe it favours right, says Opinium/Observer poll gu.com/p/3k43m/tf
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Lol.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Accrding to inflation calculator £3.90:

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html

    Which is the minimum wage at present. If it were increased to a "living wage" then My labour would have been less valuble to my employer.

    It wasnt a bad Saturday job pay at the height of the early eighties recession, and I could afford a very entertaining weekend on the money. Good times!

    In 1989 (as a newly qualified Doctor) my hourly pay converted to 2013 pounds works out as £6.50 after deductions. One of the advantages of a 90 hour working week was that there was no time to go shopping, so I paid off my student debt in a year.
    tim said:

    @foxinsox

    "DOI I earned £1.20 per hour in my first paid job in 1981, probably equivalent to £3 per hour now."

    Around £4.

    Av wage 1981 £7k Av wage now £25k

    Min wage now <18s = £3.72</p>

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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    I see Plato has given up the day shift for one night only to seeds thread about........... The BBC!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How can anyone read the ST and support the Unite head honchos ?

    Labour supporters should be tellng Ed to drop them like a hot brick.
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    The Sunday Times have been leaked a copy of Labour's internal report into Falkirk, the one Ed refused to publish, and you can understand why.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tim said:

    Another one

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky sources: 70 inmates are involved in disturbances at Rye Hill, a category B prison near Rugby

    Never happened under Labour


    Oh

    Time to break out the machine guns
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    Labour party investigators saw indications of:

    — Forgery

    — Coercion

    — Trickery

    — Manipulation

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Isabel Oakeshott: YouGov poll for Sunday Times this wkend gives Lab a 9 point lead over Tories. @Ed_Miliband seems to be consolidating his position slightly

    The Unite/Grangemouth/Falkirk/Eric Joyce effect perhaps?
    This calling in the cops at Grangemouth is killing Ed.
    Just killing him.


    The polling on earth is simply not reflecting the polling in PB Toryworld.

    tim doesn't care how Unite behave as long as it doesn't affect Lab polling.
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    The inquiry report states: “It is not unusual for complaints to be made about all aspects of the selection procedure but these complaints are of particular concern because of the number of members involved.”
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    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles, John Lilburne - Many working in the arts often do other work at the same time, for example actors doing bar work or waiting until they get a new role. While most arts roles don't pay very much more than an average wage at best, at the top end eg actors who get into Hollywood, or musicians who get a top 10 record, or novelists who write a best seller the rewards are vast. On Cait Reilly, personally I do not have a problem with her doing volunteering at museum as work experience for her JSA benefits, it is of more practical use for her skill level than working in a supermarket (although she has now decided to take a paid role in a supermarket of her own volition).

    I wasn't referring to the arts in the sense of creatives, but more the museum sector - closer to working for a charity than anything else.

    As for someone in Cait Riley's position, the question is how long you fund her ambitions - it's reasonable to allow her to give it a shot, but if she doesn't get a role in a shortish time then she should either work part time and volunteer to get an edge of she should do something else. JSA should support people in need, not perpetually fund a dream that just isn't turning out the way you might want it to.
    This needs a proper analysis on the benefits to society either way. My guess would be that there's quite a big upside to giving people ambitious people the chance to folllw their ambitions, if they care about them enough to live off a deeply shitty benefit for a sustained period.
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    Tonight's YouGov/Sunday Times

    Labour 41%

    Con 32%

    UKIP 12%

    LD 8%
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    tim said:

    Labour party investigators saw indications of:

    — Forgery

    — Coercion

    — Trickery

    — Manipulation

    And that's why Miliband brought in the police.
    Yet didn't share this report with the police?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,502
    edited November 2013
    @Tim

    I'm going from what the Sunday Times article says.

    Odd, you're prepared to say definitively what David Cameron did or didn't do over plebgate.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Charles - I would agree she could do some part time work, but I fail to see why she should not get benefits while volunteering in her area of skill. After all, as long as there are still paid roles being advertised in the area she is volunteering the aim would still be that she gets one of those paid roles in the long-term. The whole point of the welfare reforms is surely to get JSA and benefit claimants off the sofa or out of bed and doing something productive which will develop their experience of the workplace and their skills? Cait Reilly was doing precisely that.
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    And the easiest way to [put more money in the pockets of the low paid] is simply not taxing them in the first place...rather than a crazy system of taking money, then asking people to apply for "tax credits" to have some of it back.

    Hooray for the Lib Dems! /Lib Dem cheerleading


    Would it be worth considering a Small Liberl Court, organised on similar lines to those that I understand pertain to the Small Claims Court (no lawyers, no jury, minimal procedure, fixed costs), and with power only to award relatively modest damages (say £1000) but to instruct any publication that had carried the libel to display a correction with equal prominene? That would give access to justice for people who didn't especially want to get rich from a libel case but simply wanted to clear their name.

    This would be a fine thing, it seems to me. Wasn't the idea of newspapers having to publish a retraction / apology on the same page and with the same prominence as the original article being floated around recently? Coupled with your Small Libel Court, this could really work. When you're elected as part of the next Labour government, make it happen! :)
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    tim said:

    tim said:

    Labour party investigators saw indications of:

    — Forgery

    — Coercion

    — Trickery

    — Manipulation

    And that's why Miliband brought in the police.
    Yet didn't share this report with the police?
    How do you know what they gave the police?
    How do you?

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    7% and 8% is pretty awful for the LDs by any standards.
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    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    Isabel Oakeshott: YouGov poll for Sunday Times this wkend gives Lab a 9 point lead over Tories. @Ed_Miliband seems to be consolidating his position slightly

    The Unite/Grangemouth/Falkirk/Eric Joyce effect perhaps?
    This calling in the cops at Grangemouth is killing Ed.
    Just killing him.


    The polling on earth is simply not reflecting the polling in PB Toryworld.

    tim doesn't care how Unite behave as long as it doesn't affect Lab polling.
    The Labour leadership handed over the evidence to the police.
    And you know this how?

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Another one

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky sources: 70 inmates are involved in disturbances at Rye Hill, a category B prison near Rugby

    Obviously the ban on mobile phones isn't being enforced very effectively.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    Some Tory selections news today:

    Ben Howlett selected for Bath
    Robert Jenrick selected for Newark
    Thomas Tugendhat selected for Tonbridge and Malling
    http://www.conservativehome.com/
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    Once again, Labour's future rests on two bright boys
    Chuka Umunna and Tristram Hunt are the Blair and Brown of today, but have they truly learnt the lessons of the demise of New Labour?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10421675/Once-again-Labours-future-rests-on-two-bright-boys.html
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    HYUFD said:

    Charles - I would agree she could do some part time work, but I fail to see why she should not get benefits while volunteering in her area of skill.

    I haven't really been following this closely, but was this her area of "skill" or was it something she was interested in and wanted to do? Did she have a track record in the area and experience, as your use of the word "skill" implies? I have no interest in subsidising her hobby.
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    The Lib Dems are really knackered. No one will want to take over from Clegg with the impending election disaster so they will have to just sit there and wither. Wonder if they ended up with an area of the UK giving them 1% again in the Yougov poll.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    edited November 2013
    EdinTokyo - Agree, in France workers in the arts and entertainment have traditionally had a special unemployment benefit to prevent them having to work in bars, telesales etc (as they would have to do elsewhere in the west) in between contracts and to ensure they keep their skills up. Under the artists' unemployment insurance system, paid for by employers and workers' contributions, an actor or technician must work for 507 hours in 10-and-a-half months to gain benefits for the fallow periods between intermittent contracts. Training and workshops are also covered. It is an extremely generous system, although in the present climate is inevitably under review
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jul/30/review-threatens-french-creatives-benefits
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    Well the Mail on Sunday have a Falkirk story

    Tom Watson 'was behind union vote rigging scandal': Explosive accusation by Labour candidate for Falkirk seat

    Gregor Poynton, a candidate for the seat, has laid blame with Miliband ally

    Accused him of 'shenanigans' including packing party with Unite members

    Party leadership 'knew what was going on, claimed Blairite

    Mr Watson did not comment but has previously denied any wrongdoing


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2485412/Tom-Watson-union-vote-rigging-scandal-Explosive-accusation-Labour-candidate-Falkirk-seat.html
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited November 2013
    What is interesting, is the fact that Ed Miliband is now doing his up most to recreate the Blair/Brown dysfunctional relationship in reverse with him in control of Shadow Treasury policy decision making. But we have another Labour Leader too weak to sack his Shadow Chancellor and political rival, so he tries to undermine his position by making key Cabinet changes to exert some control over him again. And in Ed Balls, I suspect we have another Gordon Brown too stubborn to resign, but also ambitious enough to bide his time letting this internal Labour vendetta fester until the right opportunity arises to make his move.

    Only question is, does Ed Balls learn from Gordon Brown's mistakes and realise that ousting a Labour Leader who is also Prime Minister becomes a far tougher task than removing a Labour Leader who sought and failed to win a GE after five years in Opposition? Especially if that Labour Leader only manages to make it to the largest party by the skin of his teeth rather than the overwhelming victory and majority that Blair achieved? Kinnock managed to stay Labour Leader long enough to make two attempts at winning a GE, but I doubt that Ed Milliband has gathered anywhere near the same support within his party to that would allow him the same luxury.

    The Conservative poll lead on the economy is not the only danger point facing the current Labour Leadership in the run up to the GE, its also the very close working team of Cameron and Osborne that underpins it.

    Tory Treasury‏@ToryTreasury2m
    .@janemerrick23 even Ed Balls thinks this policy doesn't add up. He said it means more borrowing http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/08/ed-balls-unconvinced-by-ed-milibands-living-wage-maths/

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    Labour under pressure in Scotland: Sunday Herald "Break your Silence" Falkirk Labour Party Members to Lamont.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,346


    This would be a fine thing, it seems to me. Wasn't the idea of newspapers having to publish a retraction / apology on the same page and with the same prominence as the original article being floated around recently? Coupled with your Small Libel Court, this could really work. When you're elected as part of the next Labour government, make it happen! :)

    Thanks Kevin, and also Life in a Market Town - I have been thinking about putting this idea forward, but wanted to crash-test it in the torrid world of pb.

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    @tim - they handed it over a day after a Tory had already written to the police :

    "Why didn't he refer Falkirk to the police days ago? The answer is that Henry Smith, a Conservative MP, yesterday wrote a public letter to the chief constable of Scotland, calling for a fraud enquiry."
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Have to admit that I thought it was a case of when rather than if Tom Watson's role in this whole scandal finally started coming into question, and began making the headlines. He might now regret those trolling tweets where he tried to get a rise out of Jim Murphy a wee while ago when he thought the Falkirk/Unite Labour report looked destined to gather dust in a cupboard.

    Well the Mail on Sunday have a Falkirk story

    Tom Watson 'was behind union vote rigging scandal': Explosive accusation by Labour candidate for Falkirk seat

    Gregor Poynton, a candidate for the seat, has laid blame with Miliband ally

    Accused him of 'shenanigans' including packing party with Unite members

    Party leadership 'knew what was going on, claimed Blairite

    Mr Watson did not comment but has previously denied any wrongdoing


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2485412/Tom-Watson-union-vote-rigging-scandal-Explosive-accusation-Labour-candidate-Falkirk-seat.html

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    On the "should the taxpayer pay for people prepared to live on miserable benefits while they try to folllw their dream" tangent, Falkvinge is worth reading on the Swarm Economy:
    http://falkvinge.net/2013/08/31/more-thoughts-on-the-coming-swarm-economy/

    We know that the community which not just tolerates, but actively promotes risk-taking, is the
    community that comes out on top. In contrast, a society or community where people cannot
    afford to lose their current situation is a community without entrepreneurs and without
    innovation.

    This leads to the most logical justification for Universal Basic Income yet: society as a whole
    benefits from a risk-positive environment, and if you can provide a mechanism where anybody
    can try any stupid commercial idea without risking becoming homeless and indebted, more
    people will innovate and take risks – and the society using this mechanism will get a
    competitive edge.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    GeoffM She had a degree in geology, clearly a qualification suitable for museum work, where he was also gaining experience
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It does look grim.

    Probably best time for Clegg to step down is next autumn, so a new leader can diferentiate in early 2015.
    AndyJS said:

    7% and 8% is pretty awful for the LDs by any standards.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM She had a degree in geology, clearly a qualification suitable for museum work, where he was also gaining experience

    So she only had a degree. And therefore no experience and demonstrable skill to offer. There are lots of geology degree people out there, just as there are physics degree people who aren't all going to get jobs in the Royal Greenwich Observatory museum.

    Thanks for answering my question. We are pandering to her hobby.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rowenna Davis on the Sky News paper review at the moment.
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    "Just six weeks ago, the leader of the Labour Party’s declared war on energy providers – and their ever soaring charges – caught the public mood and was beginning to change perceptions. Perhaps Miliband wasn’t weak and out-of-touch, after all. Perhaps he had both spine and gumption.

    Sadly for the leader of the opposition, the dismantling of this cockamamie notion began as the crisis at the Grangemouth oil refinery and petrochemical plant flared up and threatened to cost hundreds of jobs."

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccolm-miliband-must-clear-out-unite-s-old-guard-1-3170783
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,038
    FoxinsoxUK/Andy JS - The Liberals have not polled as low as that since they got 7.5% in 1970. The SDP Alliance truly is no more, the social democrats have returned to Ed Miliband's Labour and only the true liberal believers remain!
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071


    Thanks Kevin, and also Life in a Market Town - I have been thinking about putting this idea forward, but wanted to crash-test it in the torrid world of pb.

    I have been thinking about putting this idea forward too.
    As neither of us are MPs we've got an equal chance of getting nowhere.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AndyJS said:

    Rowenna Davis on the Sky News paper review at the moment.

    She must be a candidate for prime minister in about 20 years time.
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    tim said:

    Labour under pressure in Scotland: Sunday Herald "Break your Silence" Falkirk Labour Party Members to Lamont.


    Labour on 42% in Scotland and 41% across the UK in tonight's YouGov.

    It's killing Ed.
    Labour really are struggling at the moment and the blame is fully down to the elephant in the room which is Falkirk. It is all the people on the street are talking about....they have fallen below 39% a full four times in the last twenty Yougov polls. A disaster for Ed M.
This discussion has been closed.