Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
Great score for both the Tiggers and the Greens.
Yes, add in the Lib Dems and the three of them combined are almost polling as well as Farage
I keep being reminded of HYFUD's comment about the voters trolling the politicians. Only yesterday I was nodding along with A.C.Grayling about the Tigs standing down to give the better placed Lib Dems a clean run at it. Blow me down, the Tigs overtake the Lib Dems.
I believe that Broadcasting restrictions re-coverage of the Brexit party and CHUK my be about to kick in. How much difference will that make - particularly as neither willl feature much in post-Local Election commentary and analysis this week?
I think that may well be wishful thinking.
I very much doubt that Brexit will not be part of the local election result analysis
That will be so , but reference to those two parties would not be permitted beyond a minimal level.
I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.
WHY? WHY?
Tell me - it's always their cup final - I was listening to a staff member at our ground detailing all the things they'd taken down in the areas the away fans get to due to the previous 'imaginative' ways they've found to get weapons and otherwise vandalise...
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
Great score for both the Tiggers and the Greens.
Yes, add in the Lib Dems and the three of them combined are almost polling as well as Farage
I keep being reminded of HYFUD's comment about the voters trolling the politicians. Only yesterday I was nodding along with A.C.Grayling about the Tigs standing down to give the better placed Lib Dems a clean run at it. Blow me down, the Tigs overtake the Lib Dems.
Perhaps there really is no such thing as bad publicity.
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
It brings great credit to Norwich that a small club can join the Premiership on merit.
I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.
WHY? WHY?
Tell me - it's always their cup final - I was listening to a staff member at our ground detailing all the things they'd taken down in the areas the away fans get to due to the previous 'imaginative' ways they've found to get weapons and otherwise vandalise...
Personally I think you're going to do a 2012 in reverse.
Finish outside the top four and qualify for the Champions League by winning it.
The question is who would you see rather finish fourth in that scenario? Chelsea or non North London Woolwich Arsenal?
The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
The Tories can't deliver Brexit.
They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.
The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.
Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
A I D, pure party of Remain unless forced
On thewin.
Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.
The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
You need to understand how the voting system would play out. Even if you are right - and as BigG says, BP success seems to be your latest fantasy - they are taking most of those votes from the Tories. Therefore will poll better in existing Tory seats - handing a lot of them to the opposition parties - and do a lot less well in opposition held seats and even then take most of their vote from the Tory challenger. That 28% vote would be a lot less efficiently spread than the current Tory vote.
A majority even of Labour seats voted Leave, if we are still in the EU by the next general election Brexit will dominate
Fine but you still need to do the math(s). On the sort of vote you are talking about - say 30% Brexit with the Tories pushed down to 10%, the 10% would net the Tories a very small residue of seats, down in LibDem territory.
If Brexit took solely Tory votes, the result is the same for them as the Tories would have if they lost a quarter of their vote to a third party and came in at 30%. If Labour is anywhere above 35% that means a Labour landslide, with a healthy tally of gains for the LibDems as well.
In reality, and as you say, some of that 30% will comprise former Labour votes mostly in seats that are pretty safe for Labour, such as in the northern towns. That would be even worse for the Brexit party as it reduces (for the same overall national vote share) the vote in the former Tory seats where they need it.
As we saw in the referendum, the leave/Remain vote is a lot more evenly spread than the core vote of either Tory or Labour under a class-based voting system. Hence their vote tally will be much harder to turn into seats. They’d need to be up somewhere north of 40% to stand any chance of a majority - a not dissimilar position that the LibDems face.
I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.
WHY? WHY?
Tell me - it's always their cup final - I was listening to a staff member at our ground detailing all the things they'd taken down in the areas the away fans get to due to the previous 'imaginative' ways they've found to get weapons and otherwise vandalise...
West Ham are the only Premier League side in east London.
The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
The Tories can't deliver Brexit.
Tr.
A I D, pure party of Remain unless forced
On thewin.
Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.
The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
You need to understand how the voting system would play out. Even if you are right - and as BigG says, BP success seems to be your latest fantasy - they are taking most of those votes from the Tories. Therefore will poll better in existing Tory seats - handing a lot of them to the opposition parties - and do a lot less well in opposition held seats and even then take most of their vote from the Tory challenger. That 28% vote would be a lot less efficiently spread than the current Tory vote.
A majority even of Labour seats voted Leave, if we are still in the EU by the next general election Brexit will dominate
Fine but you still need to do the math(s). On the sort of vote you are talking about - say 30% Brexit with the Tories pushed down to 10%, the 10% would net the Tories a very small residue of seats, down in LibDem territory.
If Brexit took solely Tory votes, the result is the same for them as the Tories would have if they lost a quarter of their vote to a third party and came in at 30%. If Labour is anywhere above 35% that means a Labour landslide, with a healthy tally of gains for the LibDems as well.
In reality, and as you say, some of that 30% will comprise former Labour votes mostly in seats that are pretty safe for Labour, such as in the northern towns. That would be even worse for the Brexit party as it reduces (for the same overall national vote share) the vote in the former Tory seats where they need it.
As we saw in the referendum, the leave/Remain vote is a lot more evenly spread than the core vote of either Tory or Labour under a class-based voting system. Hence their vote tally will be much harder to turn into seats. They’d need to be up somewhere north of 40% to stand any chance of a majority - a not dissimilar position that the LibDems face.
Also in reality the Brexit Party are a cheque book party. Labour has an effective activist base, and even now I don't think the Tory one can be discounted. Both of the big parties will know roughly what is happening on the ground and will work to get the vote out where it counts. Brexit could have a very big vote share with almost nothing to show for it.
I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.
WHY? WHY?
Tell me - it's always their cup final - I was listening to a staff member at our ground detailing all the things they'd taken down in the areas the away fans get to due to the previous 'imaginative' ways they've found to get weapons and otherwise vandalise...
Personally I think you're going to do a 2012 in reverse.
Finish outside the top four and qualify for the Champions League by winning it.
The question is who would you see rather finish fourth in that scenario? Chelsea or non North London Woolwich Arsenal?
Neither scenario is probable. As you may recall, I did though tip Spurs (25/1) and Ajax (40/1) for the CL and one or t'other will be in the final. Decent odds those were
The teams still competing in Europe are tired & understandably keeping their reserves for that. I don't expect either Chelsea or Arsenal to make a big push for the top 4 now. Spurs will limp over the line by virtue of that, and they probably have the easier fixtures.
This is also why I think Man City will pip Liverpool to the title. The CL semi final is huge. The FA Cup final much less so, and later.
Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?
When the worldwide gross is in from "Avengers:Endgame", the 22 films in the MCU, from "Iron Man" in 2008 to "Avengers: Endgame" in 2019, will have grossed over 20 billion dollars worldwide in eleven years, a cash stream of around two billion dollars a year on average. It is one of the few franchises to be popular in the West and China. Every other studio that attempted a shared universe has failed. It has beaten franchises like Star Wars, Star Trek, the DC Extended Universe. It has successfully negotiated problems (the recasting of a Tibetan character, soft reboots of failing subfranchises, Twitter controversies over personnel) that have defeated other studios.
It is not necessary to like the movies to admire the craft involved to succeed so spectacularly in a time of changing markets and distribution methods.
The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
The Tories can't deliver Brexit.
They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.
The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.
Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
I honestly don't know except for one thing: if there was an obvious way out, that the people involved were willing to take, it would have happened by now.
So it is really hard to predict at what point the current impasse will break. When it does break then subsequent events might happen rapidly as people react.
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
It brings great credit to Norwich that a small club can join the Premiership on merit.
Your attitude is selfish and frankly just wrong.
Not at all - few of the players are connected with Norwich and several apparently come from Germany. As for being selfish, that is better illustrated by the fans - and media - who seek ti impose their obsession on everybody else. Non-politicos object to the blanket political coverage at election time , and I feel entitled to raise the same objection re-football.It is certainly not personal to Norwich - I simply cannot abide the game. Were I living in Swansea , I would have the same objection to local coverage of the Swans.
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
It brings great credit to Norwich that a small club can join the Premiership on merit.
Your attitude is selfish and frankly just wrong.
"But quite honestly I can't help being a passionate football supporter. If that's my sin, I'm guilty." - Delia Smith
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
It brings great credit to Norwich that a small club can join the Premiership on merit.
Your attitude is selfish and frankly just wrong.
Not at all - few of the players are connected with Norwich and several apparently come from Germany. As for being selfish, that is better illustrated by the fans - and media - who seek ti impose their obsession on everybody else. Non-politicos object to the blanket political coverage at election time , and I feel entitled to raise the same objection re-football.It is certainly not personal to Norwich - I simply cannot abide the game. Were I living in Swansea , I would have the same objection to local coverage of the Swans.
So you have no care about the boost to Norwich standing, to the large sums coming into business in the town on match days, and the publicity Norwich will receive by just being a Premiership team.
Mind you I doubt most residents in Norwich care a toss about your attitude
Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.
He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -
"He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."
This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.
As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
Drax was the only Bond villain named after a power station.
Nuclear? Tut-tut - coal and bio-mass....
The power of the edit function saved my blushes
A centrally-located nuclear power station would be unusual. That said, if it "did a Chernobyl", it would only bugger up Yorkshire....
Someone on here mentioned Fleabag the other day, or rather several did. Took the tip and watched it.
What bloody marvellous tragic-comedy. Superb. Simply superb.
For once the hype was justified. The first time I watched it I thought it was one of the funniest and most original comedies I'd seen. The second time I laughed less, and more admired it's exploration of grief and guilt. The depiction of the relationships with her sister and father are both profound and moving. Quite possibly the best thing that's ever been on television.
The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
The Tories can't deliver Brexit.
They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.
The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.
Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
A I D, pure party of Remain unless forced
On thewin.
Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.
The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
You need to understand how the voting system would play out. Even if you are right - and as BigG says, BP success seems to be your latest fantasy - they are taking most of those votes from the Tories. Therefore will poll better in existing Tory seattly spread than the current Tory vote.
A majority even of Labour seats voted Leave, if we are still in the EU by the next general election Brexit will dominate
Fine but you still need to do the math(s). On the sort of vote you are talking about - say 30% Brexit with the Tories pushed down to 10%, the 10% would net the Tories a very small residue of seats, down in LibDem territory.
If Brexit took solely Tory votes, the result is the same for them as the Tories would have if they lost a quarter of their vote to a third party and came in at 30%. If Labour is anywhere above 35% that means a Labour landslide, with a healthy tally of gains for the LibDems as well.
In reality, and as you say, some of that 30% will comprise former Labour votes mostly in seats that are pretty safe for Labour, such as in the northern towns. That would be even worse for the Brexit party as it reduces (for the same overall national vote share) the vote in the former Tory seats where they need it.
As we saw in the referendum, the leave/Remain vote is a lot more evenly spread than the core vote of either Tory or Labour under a class-based voting system. Hence their vote tally will be much harder to turn into seats. They’d need to be up somewhere north of 40% to stand any chance of a majority - a not dissimilar position that the LibDems face.
The Brexit Party need to lead by 6% plus for a majority under FPTP, they are already on that with Yougov for the Euros
What did you make of the Tommy Smith silence? Surprised it went ahead given his racist comments or fair enough for a club ledge?
Howard Gayle forgave him and said it is possible to separate the player from the unsavoury views he held.
I suspect if he hadn't been suffering from dementia in his later life he would have apologised for his previous views and actions.
Really? He slaughters him in his book
"I’d had enough of him: this bitter old man. So I went over and squared up: nose to nose. I looked at him dead in the eye. “You know what, Tommy; one night you’ll be taking a piss at home and I’ll be there waiting for you with a baseball bat,” I said, calmly. “And then we’ll see what you’ve got to say.” I wanted to start a fight with him. And then he walked away.
I look back now and remember this moment as a real low point. I’d grown up loving Tommy Smith. He was a hero of Bill Shankly’s team. But you only see the player, the legend: the hero. You don’t know the person. From then on, he was no hero of mine. As a human being, Tommy Smith was a disappointment, a complete let-down."
Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
As someone who lives in Norwich , but cannot abide football - or the hysteria surrounding it - I hope that relegation will not be too long delayed.
That is just nasty
Not at all - I just have no interest in it and do not support any team. I do,however, get sick to death of passing newspaper boards obsessed with the Canaries.
It brings great credit to Norwich that a small club can join the Premiership on merit.
Your attitude is selfish and frankly just wrong.
Not at all - few of the players are connected with Norwich and several apparently come from Germany. As for being selfish, that is better illustrated by the fans - and media - who seek ti impose their obsession on everybody else. Non-politicos object to the blanket political coverage at election time , and I feel entitled to raise the same objection re-football.It is certainly not personal to Norwich - I simply cannot abide the game. Were I living in Swansea , I would have the same objection to local coverage of the Swans.
So you have no care about the boost to Norwich standing, to the large sums coming into business in the town on match days, and the publicity Norwich will receive by just being a Premiership team.
Mind you I doubt most residents in Norwich care a toss about your attitude
I am really not so parochial as to believe that the fortunes of Norwich should somehow be prioritised over other towns & cities. I don't doubt you are correct that most people here are indifferent to my views on soccer, but I am also sure that many will largely share them. In a pub last night surrounded by celebrating Canary fans, I encountered people who shared my opinion.
What did you make of the Tommy Smith silence? Surprised it went ahead given his racist comments or fair enough for a club ledge?
Howard Gayle forgave him and said it is possible to separate the player from the unsavoury views he held.
I suspect if he hadn't been suffering from dementia in his later life he would have apologised for his previous views and actions.
Really? He slaughters him in his book
"I’d had enough of him: this bitter old man. So I went over and squared up: nose to nose. I looked at him dead in the eye. “You know what, Tommy; one night you’ll be taking a piss at home and I’ll be there waiting for you with a baseball bat,” I said, calmly. “And then we’ll see what you’ve got to say.” I wanted to start a fight with him. And then he walked away.
I look back now and remember this moment as a real low point. I’d grown up loving Tommy Smith. He was a hero of Bill Shankly’s team. But you only see the player, the legend: the hero. You don’t know the person. From then on, he was no hero of mine. As a human being, Tommy Smith was a disappointment, a complete let-down."
What did you make of the Tommy Smith silence? Surprised it went ahead given his racist comments or fair enough for a club ledge?
Howard Gayle forgave him and said it is possible to separate the player from the unsavoury views he held.
I suspect if he hadn't been suffering from dementia in his later life he would have apologised for his previous views and actions.
Really? He slaughters him in his book
"I’d had enough of him: this bitter old man. So I went over and squared up: nose to nose. I looked at him dead in the eye. “You know what, Tommy; one night you’ll be taking a piss at home and I’ll be there waiting for you with a baseball bat,” I said, calmly. “And then we’ll see what you’ve got to say.” I wanted to start a fight with him. And then he walked away.
I look back now and remember this moment as a real low point. I’d grown up loving Tommy Smith. He was a hero of Bill Shankly’s team. But you only see the player, the legend: the hero. You don’t know the person. From then on, he was no hero of mine. As a human being, Tommy Smith was a disappointment, a complete let-down."
What did you make of the Tommy Smith silence? Surprised it went ahead given his racist comments or fair enough for a club ledge?
Howard Gayle forgave him and said it is possible to separate the player from the unsavoury views he held.
I suspect if he hadn't been suffering from dementia in his later life he would have apologised for his previous views and actions.
Really? He slaughters him in his book
"I’d had enough of him: this bitter old man. So I went over and squared up: nose to nose. I looked at him dead in the eye. “You know what, Tommy; one night you’ll be taking a piss at home and I’ll be there waiting for you with a baseball bat,” I said, calmly. “And then we’ll see what you’ve got to say.” I wanted to start a fight with him. And then he walked away.
I look back now and remember this moment as a real low point. I’d grown up loving Tommy Smith. He was a hero of Bill Shankly’s team. But you only see the player, the legend: the hero. You don’t know the person. From then on, he was no hero of mine. As a human being, Tommy Smith was a disappointment, a complete let-down."
Someone on here mentioned Fleabag the other day, or rather several did. Took the tip and watched it.
What bloody marvellous tragic-comedy. Superb. Simply superb.
I think t'was I that flagged it up - and several others voiced similar praise. Glad you caught up with it - a rare TV treasure.
Really is. Superb.
Highly recommended for anyone who hasn't seen it. And, as mentioned below by ThomasNashe, not just because it's funny. It's also really poignant and, well, deep.
Without giving a Spoiler, there's a moment for example in S1E5 when her sister is at their father's house, at the table, and responds about why she won't take the job. The way that is handled and acted is breathtaking.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
You are still projecting the anger of a minority (and if your campaign is doing it right, the calls are pre-selected not random) onto everyone else.
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think this is where the Farage threat becomes existential for the Conservatives and perhaps Labour as well.
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
I don’t care how he goes as long as he goes. Parliament is enough of a disgrace without having a blatantly biased Speaker who brings the House into disrepute and that would apply whether he was rabidly pro-Leave rather than a rabid Remainer. He behaves like a spoilt child having a permanent hissy fit.
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think this is where the Farage threat becomes existential for the Conservatives and perhaps Labour as well.
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
On your final point, I respect all of that.
If HY is even a third right (which is probably the maximum) then there won't be a GE as the Tories won't call one.
It is just as well he never bets, as he would lose a lot of money flitting from one fantastical obsession to another while the world chugs on less dramatically.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
He is, after all, the 'Quiet Man'. He'll be turning up the volume soon.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
The one thing that I am certain of is that there is no silent majority for remain
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
The one thing that I am certain of is that there is no silent majority for remain
'If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.'
Will they?
Most Tory MPs backed the deal in the third MV - and it still didn't pass.
I expect the residual ERG anti dealers will see a huge Brexit party vote as a vindication of their position and become even more firm in their views against the deal and for leaving without a deal - which is the Brexit party position. The ERGers like Baker, Cash and Jenkyns might also believe the BP is no threat to them as the BP wouldnt stand against them.
I don’t care how he goes as long as he goes. Parliament is enough of a disgrace without having a blatantly biased Speaker who brings the House into disrepute and that would apply whether he was rabidly pro-Leave rather than a rabid Remainer. He behaves like a spoilt child having a permanent hissy fit.
+1
And we need to think about the office of Speaker. It effectively disenfranchises the electorate of one constituenct and requires a politician to become suddenly non-political. I think maybe it's time to assign it to a senior civil servant or some other worthy. At least that wouldn't disenfranchise anyone and they would have practice in being impartial. Also have a strict term limit.
I don’t care how he goes as long as he goes. Parliament is enough of a disgrace without having a blatantly biased Speaker who brings the House into disrepute and that would apply whether he was rabidly pro-Leave rather than a rabid Remainer. He behaves like a spoilt child having a permanent hissy fit.
+1
And we need to think about the office of Speaker. It effectively disenfranchises the electorate of one constituenct and requires a politician to become suddenly non-political. I think maybe it's time to assign it to a senior civil servant or some other worthy. At least that wouldn't disenfranchise anyone and they would have practice in being impartial. Also have a strict term limit.
Or just have him or her replaced in a by-election on appointment as speaker
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
I think 1500 local losses next Thursday will concentrate Conservative minds far more than the European elections. Brandon Lewis is clearly hoping the shock of losing seats will, as you say, force more of the ERG holdouts to swing behind the WA. They don't need the DUP to get the deal through if they can get every Conservative onboard but there are still as we know 30-40 holdouts.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
I think 1500 local losses next Thursday will concentrate Conservative minds far more than the European elections. Brandon Lewis is clearly hoping the shock of losing seats will, as you say, force more of the ERG holdouts to swing behind the WA. They don't need the DUP to get the deal through if they can get every Conservative onboard but there are still as we know 30-40 holdouts.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
Can't see how the bill can get through all stages in that time even with the votes
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think this is where the Farage threat becomes existential for the Conservatives and perhaps Labour as well.
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
On your final point, I respect all of that.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election most Tory voters will vote BP and the BP will sweep most Tory seats bar a handful of Remain voting seats in the Home Counties and the poster parts of London.
The BP would also pick up some Labour Leave seats in white working class industrial areas in the North and Midlands
Speaker is already a stepping stone from MP to political crony in the HoL. It would make be a logical reform to give the constituency a real MP earlier and make the speaker not-really-an-MP.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
You are still projecting the anger of a minority (and if your campaign is doing it right, the calls are pre-selected not random) onto everyone else.
Farage is not going to be PM
It is not just Tory canvassers, Labour canvassers have reported being spat on in working class areas in Labour seats
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think one might be as bad as the other for different reasons
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
I think 1500 local losses next Thursday will concentrate Conservative minds far more than the European elections. Brandon Lewis is clearly hoping the shock of losing seats will, as you say, force more of the ERG holdouts to swing behind the WA. They don't need the DUP to get the deal through if they can get every Conservative onboard but there are still as we know 30-40 holdouts.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
Possibly but if the Tories losses are say 1000, which is not unusual for a mid second term Gov, that won’t be any impetus for change and will just be dismissed as typical mid term blues.
I think the Euro elections will be more significant because it will register as predominantly Tory voters defecting and MPs won’t want a rerun of Tories defecting to a Farage led UKIP as happened in the run up to 2015. Tory MPs are motivated to keep their seats more than anything else and will do stupid things if those seats are threatened.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked.
Stopping the European elections and going into a "vassal state" transition would load the Brexit Party's guns, not spike them.
I doubt that's how it would be seen by the "we want this over with" faction which is very strong in the electorate. May will be able to say she has delivered the 23/6/16 vote and can step down. If HYUFD, who is a Conservative activist and I suspect knows whereof he speaks in these matters, thinks Johnson or Raab will emerge as the new leader, the first thing they will be able to do is love-bomb the BP and its supporters by promising to take a tough line on the PD so no CU.
Either way, delivering Brexit finishes Farage and the BP as a political force. Conversely, as HYUFD suggests, the longer this goes on and the longer May appears impotent in office, the stronger the BP will get - the question isn't if we will see defections from the Conservatives but when in that scenario.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
There is a good Scottish word to describe your recent musings - 'havering'
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.
The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked.
Stopping the European elections and going into a "vassal state" transition would load the Brexit Party's guns, not spike them.
I doubt that's how it would be seen by the "we want this over with" faction which is very strong in the electorate. May will be able to say she has delivered the 23/6/16 vote and can step down. If HYUFD, who is a Conservative activist and I suspect knows whereof he speaks in these matters, thinks Johnson or Raab will emerge as the new leader, the first thing they will be able to do is love-bomb the BP and its supporters by promising to take a tough line on the PD so no CU.
Either way, delivering Brexit finishes Farage and the BP as a political force. Conversely, as HYUFD suggests, the longer this goes on and the longer May appears impotent in office, the stronger the BP will get - the question isn't if we will see defections from the Conservatives but when in that scenario.
It will be Labour votes passing the WA with a CU in the PD anyway, most Tories would vote against.
The PD is not legally binding though unlike the WA
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
There is a good Scottish word to describe your recent musings - 'havering'
Possibly but if the Tories losses are say 1000, which is not unusual for a mid second term Gov, that won’t be any impetus for change and will just be dismissed as typical mid term blues.
I think the Euro elections will be more significant because it will register as predominantly Tory voters defecting and MPs won’t want a rerun of Tories defecting to a Farage led UKIP as happened in the run up to 2015. Tory MPs are motivated to keep their seats more than anything else and will do stupid things if those seats are threatened.
We'll have to see what happens on Thursday. It may well be the losses will be limited to 1000 or below and as you can say Brandon Lewis might be able to say "mid term blues" - I don't know.
As for the European elections, the Conservative response to the rise of UKIP in 2012 was to promise the referendum in early 2013. That didn't stop UKIP acting as the anti-European protest valve in 2014 but it did ensure when the GE came a significant number of UKIP supporters swung behind Cameron because they had a chance of a referendum with him which they didn't have with Milliband.
At the time, Cameron was talking about a re-negotiation of the UK's membership - the In/Out referendum came only when that got nowhere.
This time, there's nothing May can offer to the BP as she resolutely refuses to leave the EU without a WA - someone like a Johnson or Raab might be able or willing to do that but they aren't in a position to take that decision yet.
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
I think 1500 local losses next Thursday will concentrate Conservative minds far more than the European elections. Brandon Lewis is clearly hoping the shock of losing seats will, as you say, force more of the ERG holdouts to swing behind the WA. They don't need the DUP to get the deal through if they can get every Conservative onboard but there are still as we know 30-40 holdouts.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
Possibly but if the Tories losses are say 1000, which is not unusual for a mid second term Gov, that won’t be any impetus for change and will just be dismissed as typical mid term blues.
I think the Euro elections will be more significant because it will register as predominantly Tory voters defecting and MPs won’t want a rerun of Tories defecting to a Farage led UKIP as happened in the run up to 2015. Tory MPs are motivated to keep their seats more than anything else and will do stupid things if those seats are threatened.
Don’t take too much notice of the Euro’s or the polls leading up to them. I’ll believe it all if the t/o is over 50% which is highly unlikely and to be honest I see little evidence of angry leavers. If you stick you’re nose in their face they may give you both barrels then go back to the Telly and forget there even is an election.
If they can't/won't withdraw membership from MPs who defy a three line whip then I don't see much likelihood of them chasing individual members who might agree with policies from other parties.
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think this is where the Farage threat becomes existential for the Conservatives and perhaps Labour as well.
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
On your final point, I respect all of that.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election most Tory voters will vote BP and the BP will sweep most Tory seats bar a handful of Remain voting seats in the Home Counties and the poster parts of London.
The BP would also pick up some Labour Leave seats in white working class industrial areas in the North and Midlands
You are underestimating the influence of canvassers like yourself. The voters will quite likely see Tory workers out on the streets. They won't see any Brexiters. That will have an effect. Much as I'd like the Tories to get a really good, metaphorical, kicking for starting this whole Brexit business I think they are in a lot better position than the polling indicates.
A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.
I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
A number if assumptions here I think. I fully accept the majority of Conservative members and activists are LEAVE supporters but that doesn't make them Brexit Party supporters if all Farage is about is exiting without a WA. The more economically rational might argue the economic damage doesn't justify Brexit per se.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage
You spend too long in Tory circles and overestimate how much the silent majority actually care
The silent majority voted 52% Leave, you have not been canvassing and on the receiving end of Leavers anger in Leave areas we are still in the EU, I have.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
There is a good Scottish word to describe your recent musings - 'havering'
Does it mean "land of the wise & beautiful?"
Scots may claim that with some justification but it does not translate to havering
It will be Labour votes passing the WA with a CU in the PD anyway, most Tories would vote against.
The PD is not legally binding though unlike the WA
And there's the problem. If the WA passes, I imagine May stands down fairly quickly. If, as you say, Johnson or Raab successfully navigate the sea of electoral misfortune and end up as Prime Minister, they will immediately rip up the commitment to the CU to satisfy their own backbenchers and spike the BP.
If I can see that, Corbyn and Labour can see that and that's why the WA won't pass. It also keeps May and your party swinging impotently in the breeze.
Meanwhile in Spain it looks like from early turnout we may see a surge in successionist and Spanish nationalist votes. Another highly polarised major European state...
If we are still in the EU at the next general election and the WA has not passed all bets are off, including PM Farage.
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
I think this is where the Farage threat becomes existential for the Conservatives and perhaps Labour as well.
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
On your final point, I respect all of that.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election most Tory voters will vote BP and the BP will sweep most Tory seats bar a handful of Remain voting seats in the Home Counties and the poster parts of London.
The BP would also pick up some Labour Leave seats in white working class industrial areas in the North and Midlands
You are underestimating the influence of canvassers like yourself. The voters will quite likely see Tory workers out on the streets. They won't see any Brexiters. That will have an effect. Much as I'd like the Tories to get a really good, metaphorical, kicking for starting this whole Brexit business I think they are in a lot better position than the polling indicates.
If we are still in the EU by the next general election at least half the Tory activists will be canvassing for the BP
If Farage wins the Euro elections, Tory MPs in marginal constituencies will panic and pass the WA, despite its lack of merit, rather than taking the entrenched positions they do currently. Any right minded member of the electorate who wants a more broadly based policy platform than simply Brexit and who doesn’t want Corbyn in Downing St will also want the Tories to get a grip.
I think 1500 local losses next Thursday will concentrate Conservative minds far more than the European elections. Brandon Lewis is clearly hoping the shock of losing seats will, as you say, force more of the ERG holdouts to swing behind the WA. They don't need the DUP to get the deal through if they can get every Conservative onboard but there are still as we know 30-40 holdouts.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
Possibly but if the Tories losses are say 1000, which is not unusual for a mid second term Gov, that won’t be any impetus for change and will just be dismissed as typical mid term blues.
I think the Euro elections will be more significant because it will register as predominantly Tory voters defecting and MPs won’t want a rerun of Tories defecting to a Farage led UKIP as happened in the run up to 2015. Tory MPs are motivated to keep their seats more than anything else and will do stupid things if those seats are threatened.
Don’t take too much notice of the Euro’s or the polls leading up to them. I’ll believe it all if the t/o is over 50% which is highly unlikely and to be honest I see little evidence of angry leavers. If you stick you’re nose in their face they may give you both barrels then go back to the Telly and forget there even is an election.
You don’t have to be angry to be disenchanted and Tory members and voters have a lot to disenchanted about. Corbynistas tend to exude anger more than Leavers imo.
It will be Labour votes passing the WA with a CU in the PD anyway, most Tories would vote against.
The PD is not legally binding though unlike the WA
And there's the problem. If the WA passes, I imagine May stands down fairly quickly. If, as you say, Johnson or Raab successfully navigate the sea of electoral misfortune and end up as Prime Minister, they will immediately rip up the commitment to the CU to satisfy their own backbenchers and spike the BP.
If I can see that, Corbyn and Labour can see that and that's why the WA won't pass. It also keeps May and your party swinging impotently in the breeze.
While the Brexit Party wins Labour heartland seats in the European Parliament elections
A value bet may be the LDs getting more votes than the Tories at the Euro elections. The last two polls put the Conservatives on 13% and 14% and I can see the LDs being around that level.
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.
The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
This is complete hysteria. Where will the votes come from to win even the most Brexity seats like Kingston upon Hull East?
The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime
A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.
The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
This is complete hysteria. Where will the votes come from to win even the most Brexity seats like Kingston upon Hull East?
While the Brexit Party wins Labour heartland seats in the European Parliament elections
Yes but how important are these MEPs to both Labour and the Conservatives? I suspect not much and especially if we are supposed to be leaving the EU.
As you have pointed out, UKIP won 26.6% of the vote in 2014 and the Conservatives 23.1% in 2014 but it was David Cameron not Nigel Farage who won a majority at the 2015 GE.
Labour, not UKIP, emerged as the main opposition so, much as the LDs found in the past, how does the BP convert protest votes at an EU Parliamentary election into votes for a Westminster GE? As OGH has suggested, the BP policy programme beyond Brexit may not look so attractive to large parts of the electorate.
Meanwhile in Spain it looks like from early turnout we may see a surge in successionist and Spanish nationalist votes. Another highly polarised major European state...
Successionist? Are the Hapsburgs planning a comeback?
Comments
Assumptions:
BP, UKIP are all Leave.
CHANGE, GREEN, LD are all Remain.
CON are 50/50.
LAB are 75/25 Remain/Leave.
Gives Remain 53% Leave 47%.
Then adjust for Scotland to get (approx) Remain wins by 55/45.
Grave but yet amiable David Dimbleby voice ... "That's it. We're back in."
Your attitude is selfish and frankly just wrong.
Finish outside the top four and qualify for the Champions League by winning it.
The question is who would you see rather finish fourth in that scenario? Chelsea or non North London Woolwich Arsenal?
If Brexit took solely Tory votes, the result is the same for them as the Tories would have if they lost a quarter of their vote to a third party and came in at 30%. If Labour is anywhere above 35% that means a Labour landslide, with a healthy tally of gains for the LibDems as well.
In reality, and as you say, some of that 30% will comprise former Labour votes mostly in seats that are pretty safe for Labour, such as in the northern towns. That would be even worse for the Brexit party as it reduces (for the same overall national vote share) the vote in the former Tory seats where they need it.
As we saw in the referendum, the leave/Remain vote is a lot more evenly spread than the core vote of either Tory or Labour under a class-based voting system. Hence their vote tally will be much harder to turn into seats. They’d need to be up somewhere north of 40% to stand any chance of a majority - a not dissimilar position that the LibDems face.
I reckon Emery's a Spurs fan.
The teams still competing in Europe are tired & understandably keeping their reserves for that. I don't expect either Chelsea or Arsenal to make a big push for the top 4 now. Spurs will limp over the line by virtue of that, and they probably have the easier fixtures.
This is also why I think Man City will pip Liverpool to the title. The CL semi final is huge. The FA Cup final much less so, and later.
It is not necessary to like the movies to admire the craft involved to succeed so spectacularly in a time of changing markets and distribution methods.
So it is really hard to predict at what point the current impasse will break. When it does break then subsequent events might happen rapidly as people react.
https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1122391583322669062
Non-politicos object to the blanket political coverage at election time , and I feel entitled to raise the same objection re-football.It is certainly not personal to Norwich - I simply cannot abide the game. Were I living in Swansea , I would have the same objection to local coverage of the Swans.
Mind you I doubt most residents in Norwich care a toss about your attitude
What bloody marvellous tragic-comedy. Superb. Simply superb.
I suspect if he hadn't been suffering from dementia in his later life he would have apologised for his previous views and actions.
"I’d had enough of him: this bitter old man. So I went over and squared up: nose to nose. I looked at him dead in the eye. “You know what, Tommy; one night you’ll be taking a piss at home and I’ll be there waiting for you with a baseball bat,” I said, calmly. “And then we’ll see what you’ve got to say.” I wanted to start a fight with him. And then he walked away.
I look back now and remember this moment as a real low point. I’d grown up loving Tommy Smith. He was a hero of Bill Shankly’s team. But you only see the player, the legend: the hero. You don’t know the person. From then on, he was no hero of mine. As a human being, Tommy Smith was a disappointment, a complete let-down."
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/oct/03/howard-gayle-being-liverpool-first-black-player-was-difficult
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3-QJczW0AArjoz.jpg
Did you observe the silence?
Mo Farah = only 5th.
I didn't observe the minute's silence, I was at home.
https://twitter.com/HKesvani/status/1122461381377306624
Highly recommended for anyone who hasn't seen it. And, as mentioned below by ThomasNashe, not just because it's funny. It's also really poignant and, well, deep.
Without giving a Spoiler, there's a moment for example in S1E5 when her sister is at their father's house, at the table, and responds about why she won't take the job. The way that is handled and acted is breathtaking.
I don't see how Farage winning the European elections (which aren't that significant in all honesty) leads to the WA passing. At the moment, Farage represents a protest vote - the change in the dynamic would be if significant numbers of Conservative MPs, Councillors and activists defected to the Brexit Party - seems unlikely that will happen.
Then we're back to the WA - how do you see it getting through the Commons? I don't see how this Parliament can tie the hands of its successors by insisting on a CU as the Political Declaration which is the next stage of the process and might be decided by the next Government (however that is formed). The WA can't pass in its current form - I think May is somehow hoping that with time the EU will drop the backstop but that doesn't look likely either,
Does May stay until the WA is passed? How else can Brexit be delivered? Answer, it can't so we're back to a second GE which, with the Brexit Party on 17% and the Conservatives in the mid-20s, I would imagine you wouldn't be keen on. Would you, as a Conservative, support a minority Brexit Party Government led by Farage?
I would still vote Tory but prefer PM Farage to PM Corbyn
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-takes-democrats-early-lead-signs-generational-showdown/story?id=62666915
Farage is not going to be PM
I think a new GE is the only route out of this but I fully accept it might not change the numbers radically. I think it is in the Conservatives' interests for the GE to happen sooner rather than later as it gives the BP a chance to build local organisations and memberships.
Hypothetically, I could see a BP candidate finishing second in East Ham and maybe getting 20-25% of the vote (Newham voted 53-47 REMAIN) - that won't worry Stephen Timms and his wafer-thin 40,000 majority too much.
In Epping Forest, the Conservatives rarely get below 50% (1997, 2001) of the vote but what impact could or would a BP candidate have? 25% of the vote?
On your final point, I respect all of that.
It is just as well he never bets, as he would lose a lot of money flitting from one fantastical obsession to another while the world chugs on less dramatically.
Will they?
Most Tory MPs backed the deal in the third MV - and it still didn't pass.
I expect the residual ERG anti dealers will see a huge Brexit party vote as a vindication of their position and become even more firm in their views against the deal and for leaving without a deal - which is the Brexit party position. The ERGers like Baker, Cash and Jenkyns might also believe the BP is no threat to them as the BP wouldnt stand against them.
And we need to think about the office of Speaker. It effectively disenfranchises the electorate of one constituenct and requires a politician to become suddenly non-political. I think maybe it's time to assign it to a senior civil servant or some other worthy. At least that wouldn't disenfranchise anyone and they would have practice in being impartial. Also have a strict term limit.
If the WA gets through by May 22nd, the EU elections will be stopped and the Brexit Party's guns will be spiked. That's still a huge ask from here.
The BP would also pick up some Labour Leave seats in white working class industrial areas in the North and Midlands
https://twitter.com/CJCHowarth/status/1122442587112185856
I think the Euro elections will be more significant because it will register as predominantly Tory voters defecting and MPs won’t want a rerun of Tories defecting to a Farage led UKIP as happened in the run up to 2015. Tory MPs are motivated to keep their seats more than anything else and will do stupid things if those seats are threatened.
Either way, delivering Brexit finishes Farage and the BP as a political force. Conversely, as HYUFD suggests, the longer this goes on and the longer May appears impotent in office, the stronger the BP will get - the question isn't if we will see defections from the Conservatives but when in that scenario.
The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
The PD is not legally binding though unlike the WA
As for the European elections, the Conservative response to the rise of UKIP in 2012 was to promise the referendum in early 2013. That didn't stop UKIP acting as the anti-European protest valve in 2014 but it did ensure when the GE came a significant number of UKIP supporters swung behind Cameron because they had a chance of a referendum with him which they didn't have with Milliband.
At the time, Cameron was talking about a re-negotiation of the UK's membership - the In/Out referendum came only when that got nowhere.
This time, there's nothing May can offer to the BP as she resolutely refuses to leave the EU without a WA - someone like a Johnson or Raab might be able or willing to do that but they aren't in a position to take that decision yet.
If I can see that, Corbyn and Labour can see that and that's why the WA won't pass. It also keeps May and your party swinging impotently in the breeze.
As you have pointed out, UKIP won 26.6% of the vote in 2014 and the Conservatives 23.1% in 2014 but it was David Cameron not Nigel Farage who won a majority at the 2015 GE.
Labour, not UKIP, emerged as the main opposition so, much as the LDs found in the past, how does the BP convert protest votes at an EU Parliamentary election into votes for a Westminster GE? As OGH has suggested, the BP policy programme beyond Brexit may not look so attractive to large parts of the electorate.